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On the betting markets NO DEAL becomes favourite once again as the Brussels talks flounder – politic

SystemSystem Posts: 12,615
edited December 2020 in General
imageOn the betting markets NO DEAL becomes favourite once again as the Brussels talks flounder – politicalbetting.com

The big news in the UK is that so far Boris Johnson has failed in his attempt to reach an agreement with the EU on the terms of a tree trade deal that would come into effect once the Brexit transition period.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214
    First. Unlike the negotiations.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214
    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I did mine on Monday.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    FPT
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    Panic buying of what? Fresh tomatoes? Possible there's lots of idiots out there desperate to prove a point. And the riots in the street .. oh wait that's every w/e in Paris. :smiley:
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,984
    "I love your passion & motivation"... I'd be terrified of the aerosol.
    The nonsense is harmful, too.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1335357799224709128
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,444
    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    Nigelb said:

    "I love your passion & motivation"... I'd be terrified of the aerosol.
    The nonsense is harmful, too.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1335357799224709128

    This guy resembles a slightly absurd baddie from a 1960s Pink Panther film.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,240
    FPT
    Metatron said:

    Both Boris and Ursula are green converts so i imagine that may be a hidden factor in them wanting to get a deal done.Gamblers here may be unaware that that the Tory govt is proposing to possibly put in their forthcoming Gambling Reform Act a clause that bans anybody placing a bet if they have already lost £100 in a month across all bookmakers!
    Not for the first time one wonders if anyone in the House of Commons apart from Phillip Davies & Estey Mcvey know anything at all about gambling.

    I’ll bet that the honourable member for Newcastle-under-Lyme knows quite a bit about gambling.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,810
    I've thought for a while now that no deal is the most likely outcome. There is simply no overlap between the domains that each party considers essential with respect to LPF and governance. I think the best we can hope for is mini-deals to keep the planes flying and some sort of extension (using different language) to allow systems to be put in place. Even the latter may not be possible though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214
    felix said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    Panic buying of what? Fresh tomatoes? Possible there's lots of idiots out there desperate to prove a point. And the riots in the street .. oh wait that's every w/e in Paris. :smiley:
    We will see. If there was panic buying because we were about to go into a second lockdown (knowing that food supplies held up in first lockdown) then I can't believe there wont be massive panic buying once the details of what No Deal means filter through on Sunday and Monday.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,240
    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    I didn't disagree with Morris Dancer regarding whether it would end with the worst case scenario, nor did I say we wouldn't adapt.

    I was merely disputing where any "blame" would be directed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214
    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1336951447339081728
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    The government and its supporters are just gaslighting the entire nation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,440
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    ...well Johnson wanted to be Churchill. So Boris, dust off those dig for victory posters and ration books.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    They're not one-sided.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1336953245114265601
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    "I remain of the view that a deal will be reached and what we are seeing is the usual going right to the wire approach that seems to be a characteristic of EU negotiations."

    The foreign exchange markets seem to subscribe quite strongly to that view. The pound dropped a bit yesterday, but remains pretty high compared to its history over the last few months.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    I've thought for a while now that no deal is the most likely outcome. There is simply no overlap between the domains that each party considers essential with respect to LPF and governance. I think the best we can hope for is mini-deals to keep the planes flying and some sort of extension (using different language) to allow systems to be put in place. Even the latter may not be possible though.

    There will be unilateral measures in areas like aviation and haulage to prevent total catastrophe, but no "deals". The EU will publish their measures next week.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    However the definition of "blind dogma" changes depending on whether you agree with it or not.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1336953887362838528
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,180
    Four days to presumed settlement on Monday (or 5 to Tuesday). Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.05
    Democrats 1.05
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.04
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.04
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.08
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.05
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.06
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01

    AZ Dem 1.05
    GA Dem 1.05
    MI Dem 1.05
    NV Dem 1.04
    PA Dem 1.06
    WI Dem 1.05

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.13
    Trump exit date 2021 1.09
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    My impression was that you'd followed fairly faithfully whatever happened to be the government line at any particular time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    I didn't disagree with Morris Dancer regarding whether it would end with the worst case scenario, nor did I say we wouldn't adapt.

    I was merely disputing where any "blame" would be directed.
    The blame game is fairly well baked in probably with leaver and remainer views polarised
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    edited December 2020
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    I didn't disagree with Morris Dancer regarding whether it would end with the worst case scenario, nor did I say we wouldn't adapt.

    I was merely disputing where any "blame" would be directed.
    The blame game is fairly well baked in probably with leaver and remainer views polarised
    And considering there is now considerably more people who view Brexit as a "mistake" than those who don't, that should worry the government.

    This if of course will be the first time anything has actually changed since Brexit. Brexit will stop being something abstract and actually be something meaningful so I expect more concrete views to finally start to change. In which direction, who knows.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    I thought the NI issue has been resolved by Gove this week
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,713
    Sandpit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1336797054157402118

    To be fair, that’s Boris as a journalist quoting the guy responsible for EU buildings saying it will have to fall because of asbestos.

    Presumably it’s still full of asbestos today?
    No they removed it.

    Johnson quoted £60mn at the cost of refitting it. The EU spent £625mn.
    So maintaining the icon of a building was considered to be worth more than half a billion to EU taxpayers, by EU officials?

    Maybe that’s why we voted to leave.
    Berlaymonster's refurb was financed by the Belgian government (who owned up to that point) equivalent of PFI. I've been in it quite a few times as at least 15 of my old students now work in the Commission. It's not that flash even after the rebuild.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    ...well Johnson wanted to be Churchill. So Boris, dust off those dig for victory posters and ration books.
    Not really a blood, toil, sweat and tears man.

    Well, maybe a bit sweaty, but I don't want to think about that too much.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,771
    edited December 2020
    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    A friend of a friend had no money at university and put himself on a similar diet. After a couple of months he became one of the few cases of scurvy in the UK in the last couple of centuries.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,180
    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    John Redwood might get John Redwood's vote but surely other Conservative MPs would wonder about the electoral attraction of worsening employment conditions, or have met John Redwood.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,440
    edited December 2020
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    One of the reasons an Independent Wales would need to go to the IMF within a fortnight is free repeat prescriptions. Several years ago, my late father was confused as to what meds he needed to take, so I cleared the house of excess meds. I returned two full bin bags to the chemists. He had enough Tramadol to join a Columbian drug cartel.

    Old people and free prescriptions! A scam run by Welsh Pharmacists!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I thought the NI issue has been resolved by Gove this week

    He agreed there will be checks, yes
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    I thought the NI issue has been resolved by Gove this week
    Depends what you mean by "resolved".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,240
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    They're not one-sided.
    Please give an example of where UK can legislate stricter laws and the EU would be *obligated* to follow suit?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    Both my wife and I have been on six month repeats for years

    Maybe it is a Wales NHS policy
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    But the dogma is what is driving us toward the cliff.

    Being concerned about the real world implications of a no deal exit - which you were, up until it collided with your reluctance to follow through on your own promises - is not dogma, but sensible politics.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Sandpit said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    They're not one-sided.
    Please give an example of where UK can legislate stricter laws and the EU would be *obligated* to follow suit?
    There's no obligation on the UK's behalf to follow suit. We would simply lose free-trade privileges.

    Free choice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    Dura_Ace said:

    Berlaymonster's refurb was financed by the Belgian government (who owned up to that point) equivalent of PFI. I've been in it quite a few times as at least 15 of my old students now work in the Commission. It's not that flash even after the rebuild.

    I thought the moral of the story was that BoZo said there would be a quick and cheap outcome, and it took years and cost 10 times the estimate.

    Brexit in a nutshell
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    your obsession with individuals is bizarre - maybe a nice cruise will calm you down... oh.. maybe not and you can't even blame it on Brexit. :smile:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1336830926098231299
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    ...well Johnson wanted to be Churchill. So Boris, dust off those dig for victory posters and ration books.
    I would suggest it is all or nothing for Boris

    The ultimate high stakes event and nobody can be sure how this will pan out
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    The government and its supporters are just gaslighting the entire nation.
    NI is resolved - that issue is over
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,440
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    I thought the NI issue has been resolved by Gove this week
    It was a great presentation by Gove, as you observed yesterday. Don't worry yourself with the contents!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    The government and its supporters are just gaslighting the entire nation.
    NI is resolved - that issue is over
    I mean it clearly isn't over, as we have seen. What is wrong with you?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1336953245114265601

    On both sides
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,240
    Gallowgate said:

    Sandpit said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    They're not one-sided.
    Please give an example of where UK can legislate stricter laws and the EU would be *obligated* to follow suit?
    There's no obligation on the UK's behalf to follow suit. We would simply lose free-trade privileges.

    Free choice.
    My point was that a legislated ‘ratchet’ need to be binding on both sides.

    Right now, the EU seem to expect the UK to ratchet their social legislation, but with no reciprocal on their side.

    The U.K. side therefore thinks, quite understandably, that future EU legislation is specifically designed to harm the UK with ing the EU market.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    Ah, Gardenwalker, you have not reckoned with the neurotic cunning of the Brexiteers ...

    On January 1st, we will be releasing plagues of skittering rats and giant cockroaches to celebrate the moral and physical rot of Brexit.

    They will hunt down and devour the huge food stockpiles of the Remainers. :smile:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Chris said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    My impression was that you'd followed fairly faithfully whatever happened to be the government line at any particular time.
    Not always hence why I voted Blair twice
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,440
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    John Redwood might get John Redwood's vote but surely other Conservative MPs would wonder about the electoral attraction of worsening employment conditions, or have met John Redwood.
    He could always charm them with his singing. "Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau" is a favourite I believe.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    One of the reasons an Independent Wales would need to go to the IMF within a fortnight is free repeat prescriptions. Several years ago, my late father was confused as to what meds he needed to take, so I cleared the house of excess meds. I returned two full bin bags to the chemists. He had enough Tramadol to join a Columbian drug cartel.

    Old people and free prescriptions! A scam run by Welsh Pharmacists!
    I wonder what % of medications are not taken. Is there any figure for that?
    Also what % of the adult (or child) population are on prescription medicine.
    Sometimes it looks like a scheme to get everyone on meds of some sort
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,354
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    Both my wife and I have been on six month repeats for years

    Maybe it is a Wales NHS policy
    When you say six months, do you mean you get six months worth of pills, or you get six lots of one month then have your prescription reviewed after six months?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    I didn't disagree with Morris Dancer regarding whether it would end with the worst case scenario, nor did I say we wouldn't adapt.

    I was merely disputing where any "blame" would be directed.
    The blame game is fairly well baked in probably with leaver and remainer views polarised
    And considering there is now considerably more people who view Brexit as a "mistake" than those who don't, that should worry the government.

    This if of course will be the first time anything has actually changed since Brexit. Brexit will stop being something abstract and actually be something meaningful so I expect more concrete views to finally start to change. In which direction, who knows.
    The polls will be interesting over the coming weeks but longer term no one can have a clue how this will pan out
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    @Big_G_NorthWales do you actually understand what Gove agreed? I certainly don't understand it.

    However repeating the same thing: "NI is resolved" doesn't make it so.

    There's clearly some people in Northern Ireland who believe the new arrangements are a downgrade on the status quo.

    But you can continue to repeat "NI is resolved, the issue is over" if it makes you feel better.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,180
    edited December 2020
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    I've thought for a while now that no deal is the most likely outcome. There is simply no overlap between the domains that each party considers essential with respect to LPF and governance. I think the best we can hope for is mini-deals to keep the planes flying and some sort of extension (using different language) to allow systems to be put in place. Even the latter may not be possible though.

    There will be unilateral measures in areas like aviation and haulage to prevent total catastrophe, but no "deals". The EU will publish their measures next week.
    And that is the problem with no-deal betting. How many sector-specific arrangements add up to a deal so far as the bookies are concerned? The Smarkets market referred to in the header includes this line in its rules: This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal. And how would extensions to the transition period be treated?

    Imo these markets are best avoided, especially on the "no deal" side.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    edited December 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Sandpit said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    They're not one-sided.
    Please give an example of where UK can legislate stricter laws and the EU would be *obligated* to follow suit?
    There's no obligation on the UK's behalf to follow suit. We would simply lose free-trade privileges.

    Free choice.
    My point was that a legislated ‘ratchet’ need to be binding on both sides.

    Right now, the EU seem to expect the UK to ratchet their social legislation, but with no reciprocal on their side.

    The U.K. side therefore thinks, quite understandably, that future EU legislation is specifically designed to harm the UK with ing the EU market.
    Well obviously. The EU are trying to protect the Single Market from UK competition, as is their right... As they have always done.

    This is, quite literally, a natural consequence of Brexit.

    I don't understand why you people are complaining.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    But the dogma is what is driving us toward the cliff.

    Being concerned about the real world implications of a no deal exit - which you were, up until it collided with your reluctance to follow through on your own promises - is not dogma, but sensible politics.
    I am concerned, very concerned, but also cannot accept the EU want to control our coastal waters and keep us locked into their legislation when they do not insist on it with any other third country
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,954
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1336797054157402118

    To be fair, that’s Boris as a journalist quoting the guy responsible for EU buildings saying it will have to fall because of asbestos.

    Presumably it’s still full of asbestos today?
    No they removed it.

    Johnson quoted £60mn at the cost of refitting it. The EU spent £625mn.
    So maintaining the icon of a building was considered to be worth more than half a billion to EU taxpayers, by EU officials?

    Maybe that’s why we voted to leave.
    Berlaymonster's refurb was financed by the Belgian government (who owned up to that point) equivalent of PFI. I've been in it quite a few times as at least 15 of my old students now work in the Commission. It's not that flash even after the rebuild.
    Yes - I saw that. The EU Commission took them for a right old ride.

    Sold an unquantified cost for a fixed price, on an overoptimistic estimated (ie guessed) timescale.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,984
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    Still, it's a step up from Dover.
    Give him time, and he might be able to tie his own shoelaces.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,339
    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Berlaymonster's refurb was financed by the Belgian government (who owned up to that point) equivalent of PFI. I've been in it quite a few times as at least 15 of my old students now work in the Commission. It's not that flash even after the rebuild.

    I thought the moral of the story was that BoZo said there would be a quick and cheap outcome, and it took years and cost 10 times the estimate.

    Brexit in a nutshell
    And they got on with it and got the job done.

    How long has the UK government been dithering about refurbishing the Houses of Parliament? What's that going to cost?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,008
    @IanB2 I responded to you last post on the last thread on the EIHC, Although I have argued here that nobody should rely on it when travelling and should take out health insurance I wanted to make it clear that I also don't want to lose it, which might be incorrectly inferred by my previous arguments in response to posters arguing about people traveling without insurance. I thought your post was spot on. Exactly my view of the EHIC
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    But the dogma is what is driving us toward the cliff.

    Being concerned about the real world implications of a no deal exit - which you were, up until it collided with your reluctance to follow through on your own promises - is not dogma, but sensible politics.
    I am concerned, very concerned, but also cannot accept the EU want to control our coastal waters and keep us locked into their legislation when they do not insist on it with any other third country
    More mindless government propaganda from you @Big_G_NorthWales.

    "Want to control our coastal waters" good grief.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    edited December 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    The government and its supporters are just gaslighting the entire nation.
    NI is resolved - that issue is over
    I mean it clearly isn't over, as we have seen. What is wrong with you?
    Ni protocol was confirmed by Gove this week and there is nothing wrong with me other than I am getting elderly very quickly by the feel of it
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Going back to the moon landing thing I agree that the USA spent vast sums of it national wealth on the pursuit of the moon, but I am sure a huge amount of that was spent on the testing and development of the technology. By 1969 they had the technology and it worked. Even when a manufacturing error caused an explosion on Apollo 13 the spacecraft was robust enough to get back to earth. So if they have the technoolgy why not just reproduce it. Surely using modern manufacturing methods it would be much cheaper to reproduce, and the command module could actually have a decent computer system in it rather that something more basic than a calculator. I just find it so odd that they had the technology to do it, but they no longer do. Just build the Saturn V rocket again, use the same design for the LEM with a decent computer system and away you go. I know thats simplistic but it seems logical.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,984
    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales do you actually understand what Gove agreed? I certainly don't understand it.

    However repeating the same thing: "NI is resolved" doesn't make it so.

    There's clearly some people in Northern Ireland who believe the new arrangements are a downgrade on the status quo.

    But you can continue to repeat "NI is resolved, the issue is over" if it makes you feel better.

    Well it's certainly an improvement on the status quo ante.
    And what any of any of this means won't be clearly understood until after it happens.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    The government and its supporters are just gaslighting the entire nation.
    NI is resolved - that issue is over
    I mean it clearly isn't over, as we have seen. What is wrong with you?
    Ni protocol was confirmed by Gove this week and there is nothing wrong with me other than I am getting elderly very quickly by the feel of it
    The NI protocol being agreed does not "solve the issue". There will be many, especially in Northern Ireland, who will consider the new arrangements a downgrade on the status quo and will continue to complain about them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,984
    On a more cheerful note, a cracking article on McCartney.
    I'm not even a great Beatles fan, but I really enjoyed it.

    64 Reasons To Celebrate Paul McCartney
    https://ianleslie.substack.com/p/64-reasons-to-celebrate-paul-mccartney
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,444
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    I'm not sure that at the moment the EU regards the UK as a 'friendly and cooperative nation'!
    I wouldn't if I were on the Commission.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,158
    More hot Luke 15:7 action.

    https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1336936513263853569
  • eekeek Posts: 30,868
    edited December 2020
    NerysHughes said:

    Going back to the moon landing thing I agree that the USA spent vast sums of it national wealth on the pursuit of the moon, but I am sure a huge amount of that was spent on the testing and development of the technology. By 1969 they had the technology and it worked. Even when a manufacturing error caused an explosion on Apollo 13 the spacecraft was robust enough to get back to earth. So if they have the technoolgy why not just reproduce it. Surely using modern manufacturing methods it would be much cheaper to reproduce, and the command module could actually have a decent computer system in it rather that something more basic than a calculator. I just find it so odd that they had the technology to do it, but they no longer do. Just build the Saturn V rocket again, use the same design for the LEM with a decent computer system and away you go. I know thats simplistic but it seems logical.

    The expertise required is 50 years old - a lot will have been forgotten and a lot of things will need to be replaced as the originals don't exist any more. Worse as you remove weight from one place, you need to either replace it or remove it from somewhere else as well.

    It's easier to just start again.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,954
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    Both my wife and I have been on six month repeats for years

    Maybe it is a Wales NHS policy
    In England I think the default is two months, with a new Dr approval needed once a year.

    Only one of mine is really tightly policed - and that is sensors for my Freestyle Libre, which is the blood glucose monitor that Theresa May used to wear.

    Fairly easy to knock off on doorframes, and I have yet to persuade my Doc to give me a spare on those occasions, so it is back to finger sticks for a few days on those occasions.

    However the things are expensive, at £30-ish every 2 weeks.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,771
    Sandpit said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Sandpit said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Sandpit said:

    If the EU can’t drop the one-sided ‘ratchet’ clauses in social and employment legislation, then there’s no way to a deal. Boris can’t concede on these, he’d be replaced as party leader by John Redwood almost overnight.

    They're not one-sided.
    Please give an example of where UK can legislate stricter laws and the EU would be *obligated* to follow suit?
    There's no obligation on the UK's behalf to follow suit. We would simply lose free-trade privileges.

    Free choice.
    My point was that a legislated ‘ratchet’ need to be binding on both sides.

    Right now, the EU seem to expect the UK to ratchet their social legislation, but with no reciprocal on their side.

    The U.K. side therefore thinks, quite understandably, that future EU legislation is specifically designed to harm the UK with ing the EU market.
    As usual the EU's arguments are a mixture of hypocrisy and economic illiteracy. Hypocrisy because they complain about the UK possibly undermining their social protections while simultaneously trying to undermine the UK's economy, by, for instance luring businesses to the Continent. And economically illiterate because different European countries have widely different social norms within the Single Market without undermining it. But like all bureaucrats, including our own civil service, they will do anything to cling onto control.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kjh said:

    @IanB2 I responded to you last post on the last thread on the EIHC, Although I have argued here that nobody should rely on it when travelling and should take out health insurance I wanted to make it clear that I also don't want to lose it, which might be incorrectly inferred by my previous arguments in response to posters arguing about people traveling without insurance. I thought your post was spot on. Exactly my view of the EHIC

    Agreed.

    And given the EHIC scheme includes Norway & Switzerland & Iceland, there is no absolutely reason why it could not continue.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,247
    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/PaddyBriggs/status/1336804287121395712

    Really - is that what we call informed political comment these days - fat shaming and undertones of xenophobia?
    Not so much xenophobia but hatred and contempt for our own country. If only we could be as clever and as sleek and as cosmopolitan as the EU elite. Its sad.

    You may see Boris Johnson and David Frost as great symbols of the UK, David, but others see them as grubby, second-raters who have made promises to the British people that they are not capable of keeping. There is nothing xenophobic or unpatriotic about the scorning them when their incompetence, mediocrity and, in the case of Johnson, demonstrable mendacity are not only putting this country's well-being at stake, but also its very future.

    They may well be grubby second raters. Why not criticise them for that, as you have done, rather than laugh at them for being fat and flabby? Are there no flabby politicians on the continent? Would Boris be a better leader if he did more sit ups?

    It was an attempt to be funny and not entirely unsuccessful, but some people genuinely seem to get upset or think theres symbolism because Boris is fat and rumpled and Barnier and UvDL are slim. Look how far we've fallen was one comment. As though the physical state of Boris vs the EU side matters at all.

    You know it doesn't, I know it doesn't, we all know it doesn't. So why pretend it does when as you've demonstrated it doesn't matter?

    It can still be a joke, but people actually treat it as serious.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,158
    From that Ed West article, as a football fan this is quite striking.

    People often marvel at how reluctant others are to change their minds about political issues, but politics is hormonal. After the achingly dull 1994 World Cup final, in which Italy lost to Brazil on penalties, researchers found that testosterone levels among Italian men watching the game had fallen by almost 27%. That is why football fans frequently cry in defeat; it’s the body’s response to the shock of defeat, and I imagine something similar is going on with our politics. Realising that your long-held beliefs are mistaken is troubling and emotionally draining, and so few change their minds over big issues — even when, in some cases, the bodies start piling up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    CatMan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    Both my wife and I have been on six month repeats for years

    Maybe it is a Wales NHS policy
    When you say six months, do you mean you get six months worth of pills, or you get six lots of one month then have your prescription reviewed after six months?
    We have six monthly reviews by our GP who then authorises Boots to repeat the medication month by month for the next six months. Of course if you require other medication that is prescribed on a need only basis
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Brexiteers have gone from "easiest deal in the world" to throwing their toys out of the pram because the EU are not acting in the way they "assumed they would", in deference to their obsession.

    There's some odd similarities to socialists going from "just raise taxes" to throwing their toys out of the pram when the rich don't act in the way they "assumed they would" and simply move their money out of the country.

    Hmm...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,339
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    I didn't disagree with Morris Dancer regarding whether it would end with the worst case scenario, nor did I say we wouldn't adapt.

    I was merely disputing where any "blame" would be directed.
    The blame game is fairly well baked in probably with leaver and remainer views polarised
    And considering there is now considerably more people who view Brexit as a "mistake" than those who don't, that should worry the government.

    This if of course will be the first time anything has actually changed since Brexit. Brexit will stop being something abstract and actually be something meaningful so I expect more concrete views to finally start to change. In which direction, who knows.
    The polls will be interesting over the coming weeks but longer term no one can have a clue how this will pan out
    Prediction is difficult, especially about the future. True. But the polls show a solid substantial plurality, edging on a majority, of voters who already think the 2016 vote outcome was a mistake. Pretty much all the modelling suggests that No Deal is the most damaging form of Brexit for the economy. And Johnson's inability to set preparations in train in time means the UK really isn't ready.

    It's a combustible mix, it could go either way. But disaster is surely more likely than triumph.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,444
    kjh said:

    @IanB2 I responded to you last post on the last thread on the EIHC, Although I have argued here that nobody should rely on it when travelling and should take out health insurance I wanted to make it clear that I also don't want to lose it, which might be incorrectly inferred by my previous arguments in response to posters arguing about people traveling without insurance. I thought your post was spot on. Exactly my view of the EHIC


    I certainly wouldn't (wouldn't have relied) rely on the EHIC for all eventualities, just as I wouldn't rely on the services of my local GP, pharmacist or dentist for all eventualities, but it is (was) a very useful first line.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1336957112283488263?s=20
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales do you actually understand what Gove agreed? I certainly don't understand it.

    However repeating the same thing: "NI is resolved" doesn't make it so.

    There's clearly some people in Northern Ireland who believe the new arrangements are a downgrade on the status quo.

    But you can continue to repeat "NI is resolved, the issue is over" if it makes you feel better.

    It may well be a downgrade but it has been agreed between Gove and the EU within the WDA joint committee
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,354
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CatMan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    Both my wife and I have been on six month repeats for years

    Maybe it is a Wales NHS policy
    When you say six months, do you mean you get six months worth of pills, or you get six lots of one month then have your prescription reviewed after six months?
    We have six monthly reviews by our GP who then authorises Boots to repeat the medication month by month for the next six months. Of course if you require other medication that is prescribed on a need only basis
    Ah I see, that makes sense. I have the same (also in Wales). I haven't lived in England for 10 years so I can't remeber what it was like for me back then!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,158
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    The government and its supporters are just gaslighting the entire nation.
    NI is resolved - that issue is over
    I mean it clearly isn't over, as we have seen. What is wrong with you?
    Ni protocol was confirmed by Gove this week and there is nothing wrong with me other than I am getting elderly very quickly by the feel of it
    The NI protocol being agreed does not "solve the issue". There will be many, especially in Northern Ireland, who will consider the new arrangements a downgrade on the status quo and will continue to complain about them.
    Here's the NI protocol solving the issue.

    https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1336672027554549761
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    edited December 2020
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales do you actually understand what Gove agreed? I certainly don't understand it.

    However repeating the same thing: "NI is resolved" doesn't make it so.

    There's clearly some people in Northern Ireland who believe the new arrangements are a downgrade on the status quo.

    But you can continue to repeat "NI is resolved, the issue is over" if it makes you feel better.

    It may well be a downgrade but it has been agreed between Gove and the EU within the WDA joint committee
    But nobody is disputing whether it has been agreed. They're disputing the merits of the agreement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,240
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    I've thought for a while now that no deal is the most likely outcome. There is simply no overlap between the domains that each party considers essential with respect to LPF and governance. I think the best we can hope for is mini-deals to keep the planes flying and some sort of extension (using different language) to allow systems to be put in place. Even the latter may not be possible though.

    There will be unilateral measures in areas like aviation and haulage to prevent total catastrophe, but no "deals". The EU will publish their measures next week.
    And that is the problem with no-deal betting. How many sector-specific arrangements add up to a deal so far as the bookies are concerned? The Smarkets market referred to in the header includes this line in its rules: This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal. And how would extensions to the transition period be treated?

    Imo these markets are best avoided, especially on the "no deal" side.
    They can’t define “no deal”, so not interested.
    .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,214
    philiph said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    I’m topping up my supermarket order today.
    Ha.

    I’ve become inured to all of this.
    Corona has been financially challenging for my household although we have survived.

    If the future looks like tinned mackerel and beans on toast we will survive.
    I shall put in a repeat request for my January asthma medication late December, and for February's as soon as possible in January.
    Do you not have it on repeat.

    I have my medication on six month automatic repeat and I get a text from Boots each month to collect it
    Blimey. How did you get six months repeat out of the system? The most I have ever been allowed for my family's meds is two months. Every time there is some minor change the IT system defaults it back to one month and I have to phone up and remonstrate about it again.
    One of the reasons an Independent Wales would need to go to the IMF within a fortnight is free repeat prescriptions. Several years ago, my late father was confused as to what meds he needed to take, so I cleared the house of excess meds. I returned two full bin bags to the chemists. He had enough Tramadol to join a Columbian drug cartel.

    Old people and free prescriptions! A scam run by Welsh Pharmacists!
    I wonder what % of medications are not taken. Is there any figure for that?
    Also what % of the adult (or child) population are on prescription medicine.
    Sometimes it looks like a scheme to get everyone on meds of some sort
    We could have a whole thread on this alone.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    rottenborough said:

    When do we think the panic buying will start/resume?

    Sunday? Saturday?

    Panic buying of what? Fresh tomatoes? Possible there's lots of idiots out there desperate to prove a point. And the riots in the street .. oh wait that's every w/e in Paris. :smiley:
    Not really your problem, is it, if you live in Spain? Everybody here, not idiots at all, is stockpiling to some extent.

    Why are riots acceptable in one country because they occur in another?

    You would stop using those smiley things if you knew the impression they create of you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,333
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    But the dogma is what is driving us toward the cliff.

    Being concerned about the real world implications of a no deal exit - which you were, up until it collided with your reluctance to follow through on your own promises - is not dogma, but sensible politics.
    I am concerned, very concerned, but also cannot accept the EU want to control our coastal waters and keep us locked into their legislation when they do not insist on it with any other third country
    More mindless government propaganda from you @Big_G_NorthWales.

    "Want to control our coastal waters" good grief.
    You obviously have no connection with fishing communities and every country has a right to protect the resources in their own coastal waters
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,477
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1336961262010458113
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,810
    kjh said:

    @IanB2 I responded to you last post on the last thread on the EIHC, Although I have argued here that nobody should rely on it when travelling and should take out health insurance I wanted to make it clear that I also don't want to lose it, which might be incorrectly inferred by my previous arguments in response to posters arguing about people traveling without insurance. I thought your post was spot on. Exactly my view of the EHIC

    Losing the EHIC is rather a pain in the backside for me. I have family in Germany and (until Covid) travel there quite regularly to see them. I've never bothered with travel insurance for these trips because I'm very familiar with the country and have the support of my family there should anything go wrong, and I'm not doing anything risky like skiing or whatever. Without the EHIC though, travel insurance becomes essential, even for someone in my situation.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 834
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1336949039024246784

    More evidence of the fantasy world that Johnson's cabinet live in.

    The government and its supporters are just gaslighting the entire nation.
    NI is resolved - that issue is over
    I mean it clearly isn't over, as we have seen. What is wrong with you?
    Ni protocol was confirmed by Gove this week and there is nothing wrong with me other than I am getting elderly very quickly by the feel of it
    The NI protocol being agreed does not "solve the issue". There will be many, especially in Northern Ireland, who will consider the new arrangements a downgrade on the status quo and will continue to complain about them.
    Here's the NI protocol solving the issue.

    https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1336672027554549761
    What actually happens in four years when the unionist majority in the assembly votes down the current arrangements? NI fully back in the UK, Good Friday Agreement in tatters?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,778
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, if the EU does want the right to direct laws on us (via LPF means) and exact penalties which cannot be reciprocated if we do not follow their lead in that manner, that does seem beyond the bounds of acceptability.

    A problem for Macron and Rejoiners is that the theory we'll leave, suffer a lot, and then want to rejoin or have a deal effectively dictated by the EU is that we'll already have a permanently instituted political division. As we saw with Scotland/Holyrood, impose a political dividing line and a divide will grow of its own accord.

    A lot of turbulence and problems will arise if we leave without a deal.

    But if we weather that for years then get back on an even keel and start adjusting to a new normal, the appetite to be legally subjugated via LPF and so on to an entity that is deemed (by some, at least) to have caused it may be rather less than the Adonises of this world believe. Not only that, the economy will have started adapting to the changed state of affairs.

    The EU will, perhaps excepting a couple of months into No Deal turmoil, never have more political leverage than it does now because the change will be sudden, abrupt, and not to our advantage. That leverage will then diminish with each passing day thereafter, but the resentment stoked up will linger more persistently.

    That's not good for us, or the EU, or Europe. But it may be what we'll get.

    You are presuming that the resentment will be aimed at the EU, rather than the Government, of course.

    Sure some of the frothers will continue to moan and whinge about the EU in perpetuity but there's no guarantee that the greater public will blame the EU when they've been told for years that leaving the EU, especially without a deal, is nothing but sunlit uplands and green pastures.
    Actually I would concur with Morris-Dancer and expect the early months of 2021 to be extremely controversial but the country will adapt and I also expect talks with the EU to continue for months and years to come as each side comes to terms with the new reality of the UK outside the EU but as a friendly and cooperative nation

    Of course if it does go pear shaped Starmer should win 2024 on a rejoin the single market and customs union manifesto

    Lots of uncertainty but most crisis do not end with the worst case scenario
    You should go back and read your posts from the earlier part of 2019, if only for the novelty of encountering an entirely different version of yourself.
    You know, the problems in society are most often caused by people following a blind dogma while I do adopt, adapt and improve and if this is a problem for you so be it
    But the dogma is what is driving us toward the cliff.

    Being concerned about the real world implications of a no deal exit - which you were, up until it collided with your reluctance to follow through on your own promises - is not dogma, but sensible politics.
    I am concerned, very concerned, but also cannot accept the EU want to control our coastal waters and keep us locked into their legislation when they do not insist on it with any other third country
    More mindless government propaganda from you @Big_G_NorthWales.

    "Want to control our coastal waters" good grief.
    You obviously have no connection with fishing communities and every country has a right to protect the resources in their own coastal waters
    The EU are wanting access to one of our natural resources as the price for a deal, as is their right.

    I thought you were a supporter of capitalism?

    But no, you're wrong. My Dad grew up in the fishing port of North Shields and my grandparents still live there. None of them give two shits about fish and why would they? The industry employs less people than Debenhams does for christ's sake.
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