I'm with Mike regarding a trade deal being struck - 85% sure in fact. Boris will make concessions on the level playing field and the EU on fishing. I do believe 90% of the deal is already done but the optics would be crap for both sides if this doesnt go to the wire.
The evens price on a deal is huge, but Im thinking it'll be bigger as people start to panic. What Im trying to gauge is when and with which bookmaker the price will be biggest so I can lump on. It might be worth me waiting until at least Sunday.
Should say not a chance on fisheries. Certainly not for fisheries to be for longer than other ones that is crazy.
Depends whether the UK wants to be able to fly those vaccines in, doesn't it?
They are independent proposals, aren't they?
Unclear, but if things get very acrimonious, they will get acrimonious. Boris is taking us into the very worst of all possible worst worlds.
So is the EU by their unreasonable eleventh hour demands via Macron, and refusal to negotiate which you are blind to seeing any issues with.
There haven't been any eleventh hour demands, they've mostly been tediously consistent since 2016, although they have compromised on a lot of the detail (for example, they dropped the demand that the ECJ should be the arbiter).
In any case, so what if their demands are unreasonable, or seem so to us? They didn't ask the UK to impose economic sanctions on itself, quite the reverse. That choice was entirely ours, and the decision as to whether to accept the terms on offer (which are exactly in line with what was known in 2016), or plunge the country into chaos, is entirely that of the UK government. No-one else is responsible for that.
As David Gauke points out, the UK's objections to the proposed LPF clauses make zero sense anyway. On the off-chance that a fire might break out at some unspecified time in the future, we are proposing to burn the house down now.
Yes, they are - you need to look at how The Times reported the tightening last Thursday when a deal looked imminent - Macron led the charge against what Germany/Sweden/Austria and the Central and Eastern European states all had virtually sewn up with Ursula VDR. This new hard position included virtually no movement on fish above 15-18% (rather than comprising), an unbalanced approach to State Aid rules (we can, you can't) and a right to unilateral lightning tariffs in future without limit if they increased or changed LPF standards and we declined to follow suit, rather than just agreeing regression clauses on current standards now and agreeing to jointly reviewing the applicability and scope of the deal in future if either side wants to change them.
Your position (because you disagree so vociferously with the original Brexit vote) is that everything the EU does is reasonable and everything the UK does is unreasonable. You are worth listening to on virtually every issue - where we agree on almost everything - but on Brexit you simply become a LD'y Remoaner turned up to 11.
You never bother to delve into the specifics and nuances, so you're not interesting to listen to as a result. Brexit has happened. It's a reality. Both the UK and EU should be interested in forging a sustainable long-term relationship. You need to be able to exercise the dispassionate judgement on the respective negotiating positions of both sides to reflect that reality and be able to assess if they reasonable, sensible and constructive. Or what you say on the subject will simply be ignored.
Look at David Herdson's example to see how a Conservative Remainer is still able to see the flaws of the EU position. Learn from him.
I suspect Richard's position - which happens to be mine, so I may be projecting (and apologies to him if I am) - is that it does not matter whether the EU's position is reasonable or not, it is what it is: the EU's position. We either accept that and work to get an agreement within the parameters it sets or we walk away. That has always been the choice, as it will be in any negotiation in which one party has a stronger hand than the other one.
It does matter if the EU is being unreasonable because as you say we can either accept that or walk away.
If the EU is being reasonable we should strive to get an agreement, if its possible.
If the EU is being unreasonable then that gives more justification to walking away.
Do you disagree with that philosophy?
I have always said our choice is to accept a deal that the EU essentially dictates or to walk away with no deal. It's not a philosophical point, it's a practical one grounded entirely in cold hard reality. Politically, the government will clearly seek to blame the EU for the failure of the negotiation and that may well work for a few news cycles. We will then move to the delivery of the triumphant outcome from a no deal that the government has promised us.
Absolutely that is the choice but which choice we should make depends in part upon whether the EU is being unreasonable or not. If the EU is entirely reasonable then there will be little reason not to reach a deal - if the EU is unreasonable then so be it and facing "cold hard reality" for a few years may be worthwhile.
Yes - but this choice was never the one presented to the electorate. Instead, the government has chosen to lie to us. We were promised a brilliant deal. We are not going to get one. We have also been promised that no deal will be no problem. Let's see how true that turns out to be.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
"Yes the Tories have gotten drunk, smashed up the kitchen, urinated in the sink and eaten the dog, but you know the blame really lies with the person who tried to stop them at the ninteenth gin and tonic and didn't do a good job of it".
Should say not a chance on fisheries. Certainly not for fisheries to be for longer than other ones that is crazy.
Depends whether the UK wants to be able to fly those vaccines in, doesn't it?
They are independent proposals, aren't they?
Unclear, but if things get very acrimonious, they will get acrimonious. Boris is taking us into the very worst of all possible worst worlds.
So is the EU by their unreasonable eleventh hour demands via Macron, and refusal to negotiate which you are blind to seeing any issues with.
There haven't been any eleventh hour demands, they've mostly been tediously consistent since 2016, although they have compromised on a lot of the detail (for example, they dropped the demand that the ECJ should be the arbiter).
In any case, so what if their demands are unreasonable, or seem so to us? They didn't ask the UK to impose economic sanctions on itself, quite the reverse. That choice was entirely ours, and the decision as to whether to accept the terms on offer (which are exactly in line with what was known in 2016), or plunge the country into chaos, is entirely that of the UK government. No-one else is responsible for that.
As David Gauke points out, the UK's objections to the proposed LPF clauses make zero sense anyway. On the off-chance that a fire might break out at some unspecified time in the future, we are proposing to burn the house down now.
Yes, they are - you need to look at how The Times reported the tightening last Thursday when a deal looked imminent - Macron led the charge against what Germany/Sweden/Austria and the Central and Eastern European states all had virtually sewn up with Ursula VDR. This new hard position included virtually no movement on fish above 15-18% (rather than comprising), an unbalanced approach to State Aid rules (we can, you can't) and a right to unilateral lightning tariffs in future without limit if they increased or changed LPF standards and we declined to follow suit, rather than just agreeing regression clauses on current standards now and agreeing to jointly reviewing the applicability and scope of the deal in future if either side wants to change them.
Your position (because you disagree so vociferously with the original Brexit vote) is that everything the EU does is reasonable and everything the UK does is unreasonable. You are worth listening to on virtually every issue - where we agree on almost everything - but on Brexit you simply become a LD'y Remoaner turned up to 11.
You never bother to delve into the specifics and nuances, so you're not interesting to listen to as a result. Brexit has happened. It's a reality. Both the UK and EU should be interested in forging a sustainable long-term relationship. You need to be able to exercise the dispassionate judgement on the respective negotiating positions of both sides to reflect that reality and be able to assess if they reasonable, sensible and constructive. Or what you say on the subject will simply be ignored.
Look at David Herdson's example to see how a Conservative Remainer is still able to see the flaws of the EU position. Learn from him.
I suspect Richard's position - which happens to be mine, so I may be projecting (and apologies to him if I am) - is that it does not matter whether the EU's position is reasonable or not, it is what it is: the EU's position. We either accept that and work to get an agreement within the parameters it sets or we walk away. That has always been the choice, as it will be in any negotiation in which one party has a stronger hand than the other one.
It does matter if the EU is being unreasonable because as you say we can either accept that or walk away.
If the EU is being reasonable we should strive to get an agreement, if its possible.
If the EU is being unreasonable then that gives more justification to walking away.
Do you disagree with that philosophy?
I have always said our choice is to accept a deal that the EU essentially dictates or to walk away with no deal. It's not a philosophical point, it's a practical one grounded entirely in cold hard reality. Politically, the government will clearly seek to blame the EU for the failure of the negotiation and that may well work for a few news cycles. We will then move to the delivery of the triumphant outcome from a no deal that the government has promised us.
Absolutely that is the choice but which choice we should make depends in part upon whether the EU is being unreasonable or not. If the EU is entirely reasonable then there will be little reason not to reach a deal - if the EU is unreasonable then so be it and facing "cold hard reality" for a few years may be worthwhile.
Yes - but this choice was never the one presented to the electorate. Instead, the government has chosen to lie to us. We were promised a brilliant deal. We are not going to get one. We have also been promised that no deal will be no problem. Let's see how true that turns out to be.
I do not speak for the government, I have always said there would be disruption. I still say that today. To quote May: Nothing has changed.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
I'm not treating it as a game, I'm treating it as politics.
Any suffering that may occur is a shame. We should acknowledge it and take steps to minimise it and help people through it.
Do you think there's a magic wand to prevent all suffering? Do you think the government can or should make sure nobody ever suffers? We can live in a land of perpetual rainbows and unicorns and nothing bad happens to anyone ever? No wonder you supported Magic Grandpa Corbyn.
Very easy words in the abstract. The fact is that the government has chosen to make life tougher for many millions of UK citizens, having already chosen to make them and UK businesses less free than they are now. It has yet to explain, let alone demonstrate, how and when we will all benefit from this.
Demonstration will only happen in the many years to come after Brexit.
Brexit is for life not just for Christmas. As I said, it is lopsided as the worst of the pain is upfront but he benefits may not materialise for years. Doesn't mean it is not worthwhile to do, we'd never invest in anything new if we only concentrated on short term pleasure.
Yep, there will always be tomorrow.
Those who think the benefits will accrue in a couple of decades time are being silly as if its significant pain in the early years, we would then sign up to whatever the EU wants sooner rather than later anyway, whether that is under a Tory or Labour govt.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
We are where we are thanks entirely to decisions made by the current government. No-one forced it to pursue the strategy it has. It has chosen to do so.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
I'm not treating it as a game, I'm treating it as politics.
Any suffering that may occur is a shame. We should acknowledge it and take steps to minimise it and help people through it.
Do you think there's a magic wand to prevent all suffering? Do you think the government can or should make sure nobody ever suffers? We can live in a land of perpetual rainbows and unicorns and nothing bad happens to anyone ever? No wonder you supported Magic Grandpa Corbyn.
Very easy words in the abstract. The fact is that the government has chosen to make life tougher for many millions of UK citizens, having already chosen to make them and UK businesses less free than they are now. It has yet to explain, let alone demonstrate, how and when we will all benefit from this.
Demonstration will only happen in the many years to come after Brexit.
Brexit is for life not just for Christmas. As I said, it is lopsided as the worst of the pain is upfront but he benefits may not materialise for years. Doesn't mean it is not worthwhile to do, we'd never invest in anything new if we only concentrated on short term pleasure.
Yep, there will always be tomorrow.
Those who think the benefits will accrue in a couple of decades time are being silly as if its significant pain in the early years, we would then sign up to whatever the EU wants sooner rather than later anyway, whether that is under a Tory or Labour govt.
No we wouldn't because you assume no pigheaded stubbornness.
We'd dig in, get through the pain, emerge out the other side and the EU would have lost the one chip they had: Fear.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
You used the word "game" not me.
I do have regard to the real suffering that may occur. I acknowledge it and don't deny it. What more do you want?
I quite like the fact that you want to leave the EU because it would allow us to negotiate our own trade deals.
Well, Philip, this is what negotiating our own trade deals looks like. And in fact you are encouraging us to walk away from the negotiations.
Enjoy because this is it in future.
Absolutely. We have trade deals signed all over the globe already - and more on the way too.
If we can't get this one over the line yet then walk away. In a few years time we might.
Have we any trade deals with countries that are a lot larger than us?
Considering we are a G7 nation there aren't many economies a lot larger than us at all, anywhere on the world.
But they are not believing this really, so there will be a deal.
So they are believing this, but there will be a deal?
Those of you betting on there will be a deal need to think about it.
The reality may well be, EU leaders pretty confident Boris does not have the support back home for no deal, not in his party, not in the country. 4 or 5 months no deal chaos, British public opinion can take no more, Boris replacement signs up to the EU bottom line and brings the chaos to a close.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
I'm not treating it as a game, I'm treating it as politics.
Any suffering that may occur is a shame. We should acknowledge it and take steps to minimise it and help people through it.
Do you think there's a magic wand to prevent all suffering? Do you think the government can or should make sure nobody ever suffers? We can live in a land of perpetual rainbows and unicorns and nothing bad happens to anyone ever? No wonder you supported Magic Grandpa Corbyn.
Very easy words in the abstract. The fact is that the government has chosen to make life tougher for many millions of UK citizens, having already chosen to make them and UK businesses less free than they are now. It has yet to explain, let alone demonstrate, how and when we will all benefit from this.
Demonstration will only happen in the many years to come after Brexit.
Brexit is for life not just for Christmas. As I said, it is lopsided as the worst of the pain is upfront but he benefits may not materialise for years. Doesn't mean it is not worthwhile to do, we'd never invest in anything new if we only concentrated on short term pleasure.
Yep, there will always be tomorrow.
Those who think the benefits will accrue in a couple of decades time are being silly as if its significant pain in the early years, we would then sign up to whatever the EU wants sooner rather than later anyway, whether that is under a Tory or Labour govt.
No we wouldn't because you assume no pigheaded stubbornness.
We'd dig in, get through the pain, emerge out the other side and the EU would have lost the one chip they had: Fear.
If the Brexit vote was 65-35 you might be right. But it wasnt it was 52-48. There is no long term majority who are going to keep voting for pain and suffering for another 15 years when pain relief is readily available.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
We are where we are thanks entirely to decisions made by the current government. No-one forced it to pursue the strategy it has. It has chosen to do so.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
You used the word "game" not me.
I do have regard to the real suffering that may occur. I acknowledge it and don't deny it. What more do you want?
I quite like the fact that you want to leave the EU because it would allow us to negotiate our own trade deals.
Well, Philip, this is what negotiating our own trade deals looks like. And in fact you are encouraging us to walk away from the negotiations.
Enjoy because this is it in future.
Absolutely. We have trade deals signed all over the globe already - and more on the way too.
If we can't get this one over the line yet then walk away. In a few years time we might.
Have we any trade deals with countries that are a lot larger than us?
Considering we are a G7 nation there aren't many economies a lot larger than us at all, anywhere on the world.
So answer the question then.
There are five nations larger than us, we already have an agreement with one of them and talks are underway with two. Talks yet to commence (I believe) with the other two. We seem to be heading into a trade war with one of the other two (China).
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
You used the word "game" not me.
I do have regard to the real suffering that may occur. I acknowledge it and don't deny it. What more do you want?
I quite like the fact that you want to leave the EU because it would allow us to negotiate our own trade deals.
Well, Philip, this is what negotiating our own trade deals looks like. And in fact you are encouraging us to walk away from the negotiations.
Enjoy because this is it in future.
Absolutely. We have trade deals signed all over the globe already - and more on the way too.
If we can't get this one over the line yet then walk away. In a few years time we might.
Have we any trade deals with countries that are a lot larger than us?
Japan
I think you'd better ask Emily Thornberry how good our negotiations were on that one.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
You used the word "game" not me.
I do have regard to the real suffering that may occur. I acknowledge it and don't deny it. What more do you want?
I quite like the fact that you want to leave the EU because it would allow us to negotiate our own trade deals.
Well, Philip, this is what negotiating our own trade deals looks like. And in fact you are encouraging us to walk away from the negotiations.
Enjoy because this is it in future.
Absolutely. We have trade deals signed all over the globe already - and more on the way too.
If we can't get this one over the line yet then walk away. In a few years time we might.
Have we any trade deals with countries that are a lot larger than us?
Japan
I think you'd better ask Emily Thornberry how good our negotiations were on that one.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
Wow. NO DEAL is 1.84. Big move from 2.57 following what sounds like a disappointing dinner date last night. John Redwood will be getting very excited (!) this morning.
They're coming home, they're coming home, they're coming ... fish are coming home.
In fact forget the fish, No Deal is the full fat "sovereignty" (per the noddy definition of the word) outcome. If Johnson shocks me and does it, I will have no complaints, despite considering it against the national interest and driven almost exclusively by tawdry and primitive sentiment. We voted for Brexit and this would in no uncertain terms be Brexit. It's intellectually coherent and democratically valid - June 16 plus Dec 19 says so.
But c'mon. Step back. Let's stay cool and think about it.
Trading on basic WTO terms inc full panoply of tariffs with the EU bloc from 1st Jan with Northern Ireland effectively remaining in the bloc and thus to most intents and purposes leaving the UK and becoming a foreign country without even a referendum - this, unbelievably, is right now the betting FAVOURITE in a 2 horse race.
I use the word "unbelievably" for a very precise reason. I don't believe it.
1.84.
Time to put my money where my mouth is and lay it.
It does sound idiotic and I for one am very concerned but I am not giving the EU a free pass on this
I expect chaos, both politically and at the ports, and have no idea how this will play out over the months and years ahead
My only consolation is if Boris and the conservatives do pay a heavy price we are not looking at a Corbyn government
It won't be happening imo but if I'm wrong and it does it won't be anybody's "fault" as such. It will however be a peculiar outcome. I had that Richard Tyndall in the back of my cab the other day and he was telling me what iho "sovereignty" means. By this purist interpretation, France is not a sovereign nation - I know! - and nor could we be, not really, if we sign up to mandatory LPF alignment in return for market access. This is not a common view but it's the one which will have prevailed if we opt for a clean break Brexit. At least for now, anyway, since I don't suppose No Deal would last long as a state of affairs.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
Should say not a chance on fisheries. Certainly not for fisheries to be for longer than other ones that is crazy.
Depends whether the UK wants to be able to fly those vaccines in, doesn't it?
They are independent proposals, aren't they?
Unclear, but if things get very acrimonious, they will get acrimonious. Boris is taking us into the very worst of all possible worst worlds.
So is the EU by their unreasonable eleventh hour demands via Macron, and refusal to negotiate which you are blind to seeing any issues with.
There haven't been any eleventh hour demands, they've mostly been tediously consistent since 2016, although they have compromised on a lot of the detail (for example, they dropped the demand that the ECJ should be the arbiter).
In any case, so what if their demands are unreasonable, or seem so to us? They didn't ask the UK to impose economic sanctions on itself, quite the reverse. That choice was entirely ours, and the decision as to whether to accept the terms on offer (which are exactly in line with what was known in 2016), or plunge the country into chaos, is entirely that of the UK government. No-one else is responsible for that.
As David Gauke points out, the UK's objections to the proposed LPF clauses make zero sense anyway. On the off-chance that a fire might break out at some unspecified time in the future, we are proposing to burn the house down now.
Yes, they are - you need to look at how The Times reported the tightening last Thursday when a deal looked imminent - Macron led the charge against what Germany/Sweden/Austria and the Central and Eastern European states all had virtually sewn up with Ursula VDR. This new hard position included virtually no movement on fish above 15-18% (rather than comprising), an unbalanced approach to State Aid rules (we can, you can't) and a right to unilateral lightning tariffs in future without limit if they increased or changed LPF standards and we declined to follow suit, rather than just agreeing regression clauses on current standards now and agreeing to jointly reviewing the applicability and scope of the deal in future if either side wants to change them.
Your position (because you disagree so vociferously with the original Brexit vote) is that everything the EU does is reasonable and everything the UK does is unreasonable. You are worth listening to on virtually every issue - where we agree on almost everything - but on Brexit you simply become a LD'y Remoaner turned up to 11.
You never bother to delve into the specifics and nuances, so you're not interesting to listen to as a result. Brexit has happened. It's a reality. Both the UK and EU should be interested in forging a sustainable long-term relationship. You need to be able to exercise the dispassionate judgement on the respective negotiating positions of both sides to reflect that reality and be able to assess if they reasonable, sensible and constructive. Or what you say on the subject will simply be ignored.
Look at David Herdson's example to see how a Conservative Remainer is still able to see the flaws of the EU position. Learn from him.
I suspect Richard's position - which happens to be mine, so I may be projecting (and apologies to him if I am) - is that it does not matter whether the EU's position is reasonable or not, it is what it is: the EU's position. We either accept that and work to get an agreement within the parameters it sets or we walk away. That has always been the choice, as it will be in any negotiation in which one party has a stronger hand than the other one.
It does matter if the EU is being unreasonable because as you say we can either accept that or walk away.
If the EU is being reasonable we should strive to get an agreement, if its possible.
If the EU is being unreasonable then that gives more justification to walking away.
Do you disagree with that philosophy?
I have always said our choice is to accept a deal that the EU essentially dictates or to walk away with no deal. It's not a philosophical point, it's a practical one grounded entirely in cold hard reality. Politically, the government will clearly seek to blame the EU for the failure of the negotiation and that may well work for a few news cycles. We will then move to the delivery of the triumphant outcome from a no deal that the government has promised us.
This simply isn't true. The EU has negotiated and compromised, as has the UK, we've got 97-98% of the way there - we are simply unable to close the final gap.
The give away is your second sentence which clearly puts any blame on the failure of negotiations on the UK, and none on the EU. This is emotionally influenced. I think the EU (and, remember, I've always supported a Deal and had no problem with a LPF) isn't being rational in going for a 30-40% UK cut of fish (a big win), fairness on state aid interpretations on both sides of the channel and lighting tariffs and governance arbitration thereof.
On virtually everything else I think the UK and EU are fully aligned in a fair deal.
They are being way too sensitive and hardline - and it might blow the whole thing out of the water. The only thing I think the UK is being too persnickety on is locking in some of the current LPF standards, where we're never going to move away from them anyway.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
We are where we are thanks entirely to decisions made by the current government. No-one forced it to pursue the strategy it has. It has chosen to do so.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
TM's deal needed the Conservative party to support it. But that it is ancient history. The current government promised us a brilliant trade deal with the EU and the current government decided the strategy it would pursue to deliver on that promise.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
The other serious miscalculation the EU are making is that the UK will simply come back to the negotiating table a few weeks/months after it happens but everyday we spend in no deal the cost of it increases and it becomes more difficult to justify going back if the terms on offer are the same or worse.
If we no deal I expect it will be 2-3 years before we seriously open up negotiations for a trade deal and they will be in the back of the queue as APAC becomes a much better bet for a services based economy.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
Nah she's wrong. Labour fucked this badly, it was on the table for the softest of Brexits for the People's Vote and they went shit or bust because they were too busy in-fighting. As a Brexit voter it was hard to believe at the time because I was resigned to getting a Brexit I didnt want, but seemingly now there are 2 brilliant options on the table that I could have never imagined a few years ago.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
Should say not a chance on fisheries. Certainly not for fisheries to be for longer than other ones that is crazy.
Depends whether the UK wants to be able to fly those vaccines in, doesn't it?
They are independent proposals, aren't they?
Unclear, but if things get very acrimonious, they will get acrimonious. Boris is taking us into the very worst of all possible worst worlds.
Funny how you blame Boris but not von der Leyen or Macron etc
Boris's requests are entirely reasonable, he's requested no more respect than other nations get. If the EU wish to be unreasonable then it isn't unreasonable for Boris to stand up to them.
Whinging about 'respect' doesn't save jobs or avoid chaos at the borders. I don't blame them because they have no responsibility for the UK. The EU is a collection sovereign nations who decide their own priorities; it's very odd of Brexiteers to object to sovereign nations exercising their sovereignty. They don't owe us any special favours.
Don't want a special favour, just to be treated the same as other countries. Until then we can put up tariffs against their bloc - they have a minimum wage of €1.95 per hour and a massive trade surplus with us so perhaps we need protectionism more than they do? Ever thought of that?
We can seek trade deals with the rest of the world in the mean time and when the EU are ready to be rational we can wait them out. Like the miners in the 80s.
The way you write it, 'we' is the subject in the second main clause in your first sentence. And therefore 'like the miners' applies to that pronoun. Not perhaps what you meant?
I meant miners can be waited out like "them" from the prior sentence. We can wait them out, like we waited the miners out.
“I meant miners can be waited out like "them" from the prior sentence. We can wait them out, like we waited the miners out.”
Wasn’t it me who gave you this example earlier this week?
You are right, the true history is Tory government spent years building up stocks to win the fight, thatcher could have waited it out years. The strikers did a HY, fought anyway even though they were doomed to lose.
The bit you got wrong, it’s EU clearly in thatchers winning seat for the waiting game. They could go years with their bit of no deal chaos, Boris and his no dealers can’t. 4 months of chaos tops.
Should say not a chance on fisheries. Certainly not for fisheries to be for longer than other ones that is crazy.
Depends whether the UK wants to be able to fly those vaccines in, doesn't it?
They are independent proposals, aren't they?
Unclear, but if things get very acrimonious, they will get acrimonious. Boris is taking us into the very worst of all possible worst worlds.
So is the EU by their unreasonable eleventh hour demands via Macron, and refusal to negotiate which you are blind to seeing any issues with.
There haven't been any eleventh hour demands, they've mostly been tediously consistent since 2016, although they have compromised on a lot of the detail (for example, they dropped the demand that the ECJ should be the arbiter).
In any case, so what if their demands are unreasonable, or seem so to us? They didn't ask the UK to impose economic sanctions on itself, quite the reverse. That choice was entirely ours, and the decision as to whether to accept the terms on offer (which are exactly in line with what was known in 2016), or plunge the country into chaos, is entirely that of the UK government. No-one else is responsible for that.
As David Gauke points out, the UK's objections to the proposed LPF clauses make zero sense anyway. On the off-chance that a fire might break out at some unspecified time in the future, we are proposing to burn the house down now.
Yes, they are - you need to look at how The Times reported the tightening last Thursday when a deal looked imminent - Macron led the charge against what Germany/Sweden/Austria and the Central and Eastern European states all had virtually sewn up with Ursula VDR. This new hard position included virtually no movement on fish above 15-18% (rather than comprising), an unbalanced approach to State Aid rules (we can, you can't) and a right to unilateral lightning tariffs in future without limit if they increased or changed LPF standards and we declined to follow suit, rather than just agreeing regression clauses on current standards now and agreeing to jointly reviewing the applicability and scope of the deal in future if either side wants to change them.
Your position (because you disagree so vociferously with the original Brexit vote) is that everything the EU does is reasonable and everything the UK does is unreasonable. You are worth listening to on virtually every issue - where we agree on almost everything - but on Brexit you simply become a LD'y Remoaner turned up to 11.
You never bother to delve into the specifics and nuances, so you're not interesting to listen to as a result. Brexit has happened. It's a reality. Both the UK and EU should be interested in forging a sustainable long-term relationship. You need to be able to exercise the dispassionate judgement on the respective negotiating positions of both sides to reflect that reality and be able to assess if they reasonable, sensible and constructive. Or what you say on the subject will simply be ignored.
Look at David Herdson's example to see how a Conservative Remainer is still able to see the flaws of the EU position. Learn from him.
I suspect Richard's position - which happens to be mine, so I may be projecting (and apologies to him if I am) - is that it does not matter whether the EU's position is reasonable or not, it is what it is: the EU's position. We either accept that and work to get an agreement within the parameters it sets or we walk away. That has always been the choice, as it will be in any negotiation in which one party has a stronger hand than the other one.
It does matter if the EU is being unreasonable because as you say we can either accept that or walk away.
If the EU is being reasonable we should strive to get an agreement, if its possible.
If the EU is being unreasonable then that gives more justification to walking away.
Do you disagree with that philosophy?
I have always said our choice is to accept a deal that the EU essentially dictates or to walk away with no deal. It's not a philosophical point, it's a practical one grounded entirely in cold hard reality. Politically, the government will clearly seek to blame the EU for the failure of the negotiation and that may well work for a few news cycles. We will then move to the delivery of the triumphant outcome from a no deal that the government has promised us.
This simply isn't true. The EU has negotiated and compromised, as has the UK, we've got 97-98% of the way there - we are simply unable to close the final gap.
The give away is your second sentence which clearly puts any blame on the failure of negotiations on the UK, and none on the EU. This is emotionally influenced. I think the EU (and, remember, I've always supported a Deal and had no problem with a LPF) isn't being rational in going for a 30-40% UK cut of fish (a big win), fairness on state aid interpretations on both sides of the channel and lighting tariffs and governance arbitration thereof.
On virtually everything else I think the UK and EU are fully aligned in a fair deal.
They are being way too sensitive and hardline - and it might blow the whole thing out of the water. The only thing I think the UK is being too persnickety on is locking in some of the current LPF standards, where we're never going to move away from them anyway.
Yes, I do blame this government for not understanding the cold, hard reality of negotiating with a party that has a stronger hand.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
No deal is entirely our fault. Stop this nonsense, it isn't a game.
The other serious miscalculation the EU are making is that the UK will simply come back to the negotiating table a few weeks/months after it happens but everyday we spend in no deal the cost of it increases and it becomes more difficult to justify going back if the terms on offer are the same or worse.
If we no deal I expect it will be 2-3 years before we seriously open up negotiations for a trade deal and they will be in the back of the queue as APAC becomes a much better bet for a services based economy.
Yep, I don't expect any quick recommencement of negotiations. Both parties will start to look away from each other.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
No deal is entirely our fault. Stop this nonsense, it isn't a game.
You seem to be the only one referring to it as a game
It most certainly is not a game and of course there are two parties to this dispute
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
I think it's the French elite that are most afraid of the UK prospering outside of the EU which is why they want to tie us in to their rules forever and a day or make the cost of no deal as high as they can so any benefits will take years to materialise.
It's a contingency we should have been planning for and once again leads me back to the extension not taken. We should be spending the next two years building up no deal infrastructure so when it does come we're in a position to benefit from it day one.
Wow. NO DEAL is 1.84. Big move from 2.57 following what sounds like a disappointing dinner date last night. John Redwood will be getting very excited (!) this morning.
I should think he'll be exhausted, after dreaming about controlling fish all night.
But happy. I see him manning a trawler on Jan 1st and helping to land that symbolic first fish of the new era. What will it be? A perch? Whatever, let's hope it's a whopper.
The other serious miscalculation the EU are making is that the UK will simply come back to the negotiating table a few weeks/months after it happens but everyday we spend in no deal the cost of it increases and it becomes more difficult to justify going back if the terms on offer are the same or worse.
If we no deal I expect it will be 2-3 years before we seriously open up negotiations for a trade deal and they will be in the back of the queue as APAC becomes a much better bet for a services based economy.
Yep, I don't expect any quick recommencement of negotiations. Both parties will start to look away from each other.
Hasn't it been muted UK will scrap all EU tariffs on US goods from 1st January and make an application to join TPPA
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
No deal is entirely our fault. Stop this nonsense, it isn't a game.
You seem to be the only one referring to it as a game
It most certainly is not a game and of course there are two parties to this dispute
"No more Mr Nice Guy, hit them where it hurts"
Are the words of those treating this like a game.
We are here entirely at our own making, with leadership who are too cowardly to explain the consequences of our choice through fear of upsetting the very people they've lied to in the first place.
If we crash out with "no deal" then the supporters of this project will own any suffering that follows. It cannot be allowed for them to pass the buck of the blame onto the EU "bogeyman".
It is up to them to make things right.
Of course I expect nothing other than cowardly and shameless blame-passing. It has already started.
Wow. NO DEAL is 1.84. Big move from 2.57 following what sounds like a disappointing dinner date last night. John Redwood will be getting very excited (!) this morning.
I should think he'll be exhausted, after dreaming about controlling fish all night.
But happy. I see him manning a trawler on Jan 1st and helping to land that symbolic first fish of the new era. What will it be? A perch? Whatever, let's hope it's a whopper.
The other serious miscalculation the EU are making is that the UK will simply come back to the negotiating table a few weeks/months after it happens but everyday we spend in no deal the cost of it increases and it becomes more difficult to justify going back if the terms on offer are the same or worse.
If we no deal I expect it will be 2-3 years before we seriously open up negotiations for a trade deal and they will be in the back of the queue as APAC becomes a much better bet for a services based economy.
Yep, I don't expect any quick recommencement of negotiations. Both parties will start to look away from each other.
Hasn't it been muted UK will scrap all EU tariffs on US goods from 1st January and make an application to join TPPA
Not sure how that is possible given that we believe in absolute sovereignty.
The basic prolem with Brexit is people still don't have a clue what it means. "WE WAN'T FREEDOM FROM EU DICTAT. TO SET OUR OWN RULES."
Fine. So we leave on WTA rules. So we have no trade agreement at all. But the EU rules of standards still apply. To sell anything in their market the product has to be compliant. Those rules will be made by the EU and enforced in EU courts. So we can choose to not be bound by them - and not sell them anything. Or we can be compliant. As we are in any other foreign market.
The EU can and will impose their rules as they see fit. Our options are (a) comply and trade or (b) don't. Its not about them being unreasonable - they can do as they wish as a sovereign trading block. You'd think people would understand this whilst foaming on about sovereignty. You could argue they were being unreasonable if their rules had radically changed. But they haven't. And we knew what they were at the point where we decided to do this - its just we thought the rules didn't apply to us.
Wow. NO DEAL is 1.84. Big move from 2.57 following what sounds like a disappointing dinner date last night. John Redwood will be getting very excited (!) this morning.
I should think he'll be exhausted, after dreaming about controlling fish all night.
But happy. I see him manning a trawler on Jan 1st and helping to land that symbolic first fish of the new era. What will it be? A perch? Whatever, let's hope it's a whopper.
A perch is a freshwater fish
A large haddock on a Scottish fishing vessel is more likely
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
This is the response of a thwarted child. It's a chess game. That security collaboration is for our benefit and it is the complete misunderstanding of our own national interest that has brought us to the brink. If the UK has the kind of childish tantrum you propose, then the SNP will suddenly find itself enough helpers to break the UK. You guys are walking on eggs and you know it. The fact that this is happening is Johnson's legacy and he and his cohorts will deserve all of the blame.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
“ no more fishing waters” don’t we need to sell our catches to them, and import what we need from them? Our waters are not full of the fish we need. Although cod can enjoy our waters, they dont tend to swim into it.
If no deal is bad chaos and a New PM signs up for a deal to bring it to a close, that’s likely brexit tried, failed, done with forever, in terms of being able to win elections on it instead lose elections on it.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
I think it's the French elite that are most afraid of the UK prospering outside of the EU which is why they want to tie us in to their rules forever and a day or make the cost of no deal as high as they can so any benefits will take years to materialise.
It's a contingency we should have been planning for and once again leads me back to the extension not taken. We should be spending the next two years building up no deal infrastructure so when it does come we're in a position to benefit from it day one.
We could resurrect British Leyland smelting its own steel.
What do you think explains the volatility of your views?
I can see both sides in the argument. There are costs and benefits to all options. No decision is cost-free.
I thought the EU was economically worthwhile long-term and that the political costs were worthwhile. I was convinced during the referendum (primarily by Richard Tyndall, Casino Royale and Michael Gove) that a better future could be achieved outside the EU so I changed my mind then - but I never considered it to be an easy option.
Short term pain for long term gain.
It's good to listen to others. I used to think the Irish border was a fabricated problem but was persuaded otherwise by a combination of Topping, Southern Observer and Sir John Major.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
The quandry for northern seats was thus: Brexit would harm the people voting for it. Remember the interview with Blair where he quoted someone he met who after a bit of back and forth said "its like you think you know more than I do" to which he pointed out "well I do!"
The May deal was an act of self-harm, like chopping off a leg. People voting for it thought they were voting for a speedier pair of trainers and instead would be left harmed for life. Yes it wasn't as bad for them as no deal which chops off both legs. But MPs decided that they had to protect their constituents from themselves.
Which may well be arrogant and certainly a lot of MPs were punished for it. But as this plays out we will see who was right. The Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019, or the Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time who now protest outside the Nissan factory pleading for its future and their jobs.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
No deal is entirely our fault. Stop this nonsense, it isn't a game.
You seem to be the only one referring to it as a game
It most certainly is not a game and of course there are two parties to this dispute
Dispute? If you tear up your membership card, it isn't a dispute. You can call it lots of things but not a dispute.
The Club you are leaving may offer you some compensatory terms over which you may negotiate, but they are not obliged to and whether they do or not they are not disputing anything with you. They are just negotiating some sensible arrangements if possible.
What do you think explains the volatility of your views?
I can see both sides in the argument. There are costs and benefits to all options. No decision is cost-free.
I thought the EU was economically worthwhile long-term and that the political costs were worthwhile. I was convinced during the referendum (primarily by Richard Tyndall, Casino Royale and Michael Gove) that a better future could be achieved outside the EU so I changed my mind then - but I never considered it to be an easy option.
Short term pain for long term gain.
It's good to listen to others. I used to think the Irish border was a fabricated problem but was persuaded otherwise by a combination of Topping, Southern Observer and Sir John Major.
Can I join in? I used to think Biden won the election but have been persuaded otherwise by a combination of contrarian, Mr Ed and Rudy Giuliani.
Wonderful news out of Cambridge for once. Certain academics are very unhappy, and it's delightful.
I find this thought that you can't say something, even if its true, because it may upset somebody somewhere rather odd to say the least. Over the course of history, the established conventional wisdoms / norms have routinely found to be wrong, and we must challenge them when the facts show errors in our ways. Its the only way we progress. Otherwise we would still believe the earth is flat.
And we shouldn't respect somebody view that we know to be false. Again, should we respect Alex Jones take on the world? Although, I have a feeling those pushing this agenda think its ok to target him, but not others...despite both being equally full of bullshit.
Should say not a chance on fisheries. Certainly not for fisheries to be for longer than other ones that is crazy.
Depends whether the UK wants to be able to fly those vaccines in, doesn't it?
They are independent proposals, aren't they?
Unclear, but if things get very acrimonious, they will get acrimonious. Boris is taking us into the very worst of all possible worst worlds.
So is the EU by their unreasonable eleventh hour demands via Macron, and refusal to negotiate which you are blind to seeing any issues with.
There haven't been any eleventh hour demands, they've mostly been tediously consistent since 2016, although they have compromised on a lot of the detail (for example, they dropped the demand that the ECJ should be the arbiter).
In any case, so what if their demands are unreasonable, or seem so to us? They didn't ask the UK to impose economic sanctions on itself, quite the reverse. That choice was entirely ours, and the decision as to whether to accept the terms on offer (which are exactly in line with what was known in 2016), or plunge the country into chaos, is entirely that of the UK government. No-one else is responsible for that.
As David Gauke points out, the UK's objections to the proposed LPF clauses make zero sense anyway. On the off-chance that a fire might break out at some unspecified time in the future, we are proposing to burn the house down now.
Yes, they are - you need to look at how The Times reported the tightening last Thursday when a deal looked imminent - Macron led the charge against what Germany/Sweden/Austria and the Central and Eastern European states all had virtually sewn up with Ursula VDR. This new hard position included virtually no movement on fish above 15-18% (rather than comprising), an unbalanced approach to State Aid rules (we can, you can't) and a right to unilateral lightning tariffs in future without limit if they increased or changed LPF standards and we declined to follow suit, rather than just agreeing regression clauses on current standards now and agreeing to jointly reviewing the applicability and scope of the deal in future if either side wants to change them.
Your position (because you disagree so vociferously with the original Brexit vote) is that everything the EU does is reasonable and everything the UK does is unreasonable. You are worth listening to on virtually every issue - where we agree on almost everything - but on Brexit you simply become a LD'y Remoaner turned up to 11.
You never bother to delve into the specifics and nuances, so you're not interesting to listen to as a result. Brexit has happened. It's a reality. Both the UK and EU should be interested in forging a sustainable long-term relationship. You need to be able to exercise the dispassionate judgement on the respective negotiating positions of both sides to reflect that reality and be able to assess if they reasonable, sensible and constructive. Or what you say on the subject will simply be ignored.
Look at David Herdson's example to see how a Conservative Remainer is still able to see the flaws of the EU position. Learn from him.
What utter nonsense, except for the last bit. I very much learn from the very sensible David Herdson. I very, very rarely disagree with him.
Where you are confused is that you seem to think that understanding that we are in a weak position is the same as siding with the EU. Reality is reality, wishing it otherwise isn't saying everything the EU does is reasonable. In fact I've never said that - the EU have made lots of mistakes: misjudging the UK political realities, and above all screwing up the negotiations by their insistence on negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, defining the transition, before either side had the faintest idea what we were supposed to be transitioning to. I'm pretty sure I've called that 'brain-dead' on numerous occasions, which is hardly a resounding endorsement.
But we are where we are. And it is the UK which is going to be very hard hit by it. That is the dispassionate reality, and, as far the damage to the UK is concerned, the fault lies with our own government. EU politicians will have to deal with any blame from their own voters on the damage done to EU economies. That's entirely their business, but the damage done to the UK is the responsibility of the UK government, by definition.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
Oh no. You're in one of your bonkers moods.
Get in the tanks, troops.
We'll be like the Black Knight. Only we will be the one who had chopped our own legs off sitting them shouting for the EU to come back so we can bite their arms off.
Wonderful news out of Cambridge for once. Certain academics are very unhappy, and it's delightful.
I find this thought that you can't say something, even if its true, because it may upset somebody rather odd to say the least. Over the course of history, the established conventional wisdoms / norms have routinely found to be wrong, and we must challenge them when the facts show errors in our ways. Its the only way we progress. Otherwise we would still believe the earth is flat.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
The quandry for northern seats was thus: Brexit would harm the people voting for it. Remember the interview with Blair where he quoted someone he met who after a bit of back and forth said "its like you think you know more than I do" to which he pointed out "well I do!"
The May deal was an act of self-harm, like chopping off a leg. People voting for it thought they were voting for a speedier pair of trainers and instead would be left harmed for life. Yes it wasn't as bad for them as no deal which chops off both legs. But MPs decided that they had to protect their constituents from themselves.
Which may well be arrogant and certainly a lot of MPs were punished for it. But as this plays out we will see who was right. The Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019, or the Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time who now protest outside the Nissan factory pleading for its future and their jobs.
The argument is very polarised and I am not at all relaxed about the impending chaos but this saga has a long way to run and nobody here or in Europe can possibly predict the eventual outcome
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
“ no more fishing waters” don’t we need to sell our catches to them, and import what we need from them? Our waters are not full of the fish we need. Although cod can enjoy our waters, they dont tend to swim into it.
If no deal is bad chaos and a New PM signs up for a deal to bring it to a close, that’s likely brexit tried, failed, done with forever, in terms of being able to win elections on it instead lose elections on it.
There is a global market for frozen fish, we buy the fish we like primarily from Iceland and Norway both of whom have just inked fresh trade deals with us allowing for the trade of fish with both nations without quotas or tariffs.
Additionally, if we have the fish and the EU want to buy it they'll need to change their rules so they can buy the fish.
The thing about no deal is that it requires a lot of upfront investment and cost, once that's done there really isn't much need for a deal and it becomes a "nice to have". What the French position is at the moment is to try and make the cost of no deal as high as possible so that it may be a year or two before the UK sees anything like normality.
Once we no deal it will be no deal for at least a few years.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
Oh no. You're in one of your bonkers moods.
Get in the tanks, troops.
We'll be like the Black Knight. Only we will be the one who had chopped our own legs off sitting them shouting for the EU to come back so we can bite their arms off.
That you can't possibly wrap your head around the idea that the UK might be just fine after some disruption without a deal is very amusing.
Wow. NO DEAL is 1.84. Big move from 2.57 following what sounds like a disappointing dinner date last night. John Redwood will be getting very excited (!) this morning.
I should think he'll be exhausted, after dreaming about controlling fish all night.
But happy. I see him manning a trawler on Jan 1st and helping to land that symbolic first fish of the new era. What will it be? A perch? Whatever, let's hope it's a whopper.
A perch is a freshwater fish
A large haddock on a Scottish fishing vessel is more likely
At sea on New Year's Day? Hanging over the side heaving his breakfast out is more likely...
"I will have such revenges on you both, That all the world shall—I will do such things— What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be The terrors of the earth!”
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
“ no more fishing waters” don’t we need to sell our catches to them, and import what we need from them? Our waters are not full of the fish we need. Although cod can enjoy our waters, they dont tend to swim into it.
If no deal is bad chaos and a New PM signs up for a deal to bring it to a close, that’s likely brexit tried, failed, done with forever, in terms of being able to win elections on it instead lose elections on it.
There is a global market for frozen fish, we buy the fish we like primarily from Iceland and Norway both of whom have just inked fresh trade deals with us allowing for the trade of fish with both nations without quotas or tariffs.
Additionally, if we have the fish and the EU want to buy it they'll need to change their rules so they can buy the fish.
The thing about no deal is that it requires a lot of upfront investment and cost, once that's done there really isn't much need for a deal and it becomes a "nice to have". What the French position is at the moment is to try and make the cost of no deal as high as possible so that it may be a year or two before the UK sees anything like normality.
Once we no deal it will be no deal for at least a few years.
Years???
Boris does not have the support back home for no deal chaos for years with promise 2 years it will be okay., not in his party, not in the country. 4 or 5 months no deal chaos, British public opinion can take no more, Boris replacement signs up to the EU bottom line and brings the chaos to a close.
It’s our biggest trading partner. You reckon we can replace them trading elsewhere? That’s like for real you believe that?
Seems there are toddlers looking forward to the EU suffering because of Brexit.
Of course the EU will suffer because of Brexit, just like the UK will.
BTW Almost nobody is taking any notice of the negotiations, here in Germany. It's not making the news. (The main EU related news right now is about Turkey).
Whatever problems Brexit brings most people here are going to give 100% of the blame to Britain (obviously).
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
The quandry for northern seats was thus: Brexit would harm the people voting for it. Remember the interview with Blair where he quoted someone he met who after a bit of back and forth said "its like you think you know more than I do" to which he pointed out "well I do!"
The May deal was an act of self-harm, like chopping off a leg. People voting for it thought they were voting for a speedier pair of trainers and instead would be left harmed for life. Yes it wasn't as bad for them as no deal which chops off both legs. But MPs decided that they had to protect their constituents from themselves.
Which may well be arrogant and certainly a lot of MPs were punished for it. But as this plays out we will see who was right. The Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019, or the Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time who now protest outside the Nissan factory pleading for its future and their jobs.
The argument is very polarised and I am not at all relaxed about the impending chaos but this saga has a long way to run and nobody here or in Europe can possibly predict the eventual outcome
There will be a deal before Dec 31st, probably over this weekend, otherwise next week. The UK wins on fish, the EU on LPF, although there will be a review clause in a few years time. Pretty confident in that prediction; it is all that is left and plausible.
Both sides will claim a hard fought victory, Boris will dress up as Santa and deliver his Xmas presents to the nation of deal and vaccine. (Not so confident on the last bit, literally at least).
So in the event of no deal, we're not going to get an extension on our 18 month grace period on clearing are we?
Deepest of deep joys.
We will not need it after we have nukked Paris and Berlin to teach them that Bulldog Britain will not be trifled with...
Is there something in the water supply in SE England? Has somebody dumped something psychoactive in a reservoir?
Well it's not the water supply, for plenty of Brexiteers they feel the same way about the EU as the Corbynites feel about the Jews. It would be funny if the plenty of them weren't near the Leavers* of power.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
Oh no. You're in one of your bonkers moods.
Get in the tanks, troops.
We'll be like the Black Knight. Only we will be the one who had chopped our own legs off sitting them shouting for the EU to come back so we can bite their arms off.
That you can't possibly wrap your head around the idea that the UK might be just fine after some disruption without a deal is very amusing.
Glad you find it funny. Its only fair considering the fine cabaret turn you do for us every day.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
“ no more fishing waters” don’t we need to sell our catches to them, and import what we need from them? Our waters are not full of the fish we need. Although cod can enjoy our waters, they dont tend to swim into it.
If no deal is bad chaos and a New PM signs up for a deal to bring it to a close, that’s likely brexit tried, failed, done with forever, in terms of being able to win elections on it instead lose elections on it.
There is a global market for frozen fish, we buy the fish we like primarily from Iceland and Norway both of whom have just inked fresh trade deals with us allowing for the trade of fish with both nations without quotas or tariffs.
Additionally, if we have the fish and the EU want to buy it they'll need to change their rules so they can buy the fish.
The thing about no deal is that it requires a lot of upfront investment and cost, once that's done there really isn't much need for a deal and it becomes a "nice to have". What the French position is at the moment is to try and make the cost of no deal as high as possible so that it may be a year or two before the UK sees anything like normality.
Once we no deal it will be no deal for at least a few years.
Years???
Boris does not have the support back home for no deal chaos for years with promise 2 years it will be okay., not in his party, not in the country. 4 or 5 months no deal chaos, British public opinion can take no more, Boris replacement signs up to the EU bottom line and brings the chaos to a close.
It’s our biggest trading partner. You reckon we can replace them trading elsewhere? That’s like for real you believe that?
We don't need to, trade doesn't stop without a deal. We'll still be able to trade with them even without one.
Besides we have a massive trade deficit with them remember.
If we no deal I expect it will be 2-3 years before we seriously open up negotiations for a trade deal and they will be in the back of the queue as APAC becomes a much better bet for a services based economy.
Are the British right friends with China again because the last I heard they wanted a Firm Line and economic sanctions to punish them for spreading the Wuhan Flu.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
Oh no. You're in one of your bonkers moods.
Get in the tanks, troops.
We'll be like the Black Knight. Only we will be the one who had chopped our own legs off sitting them shouting for the EU to come back so we can bite their arms off.
That you can't possibly wrap your head around the idea that the UK might be just fine after some disruption without a deal is very amusing.
Some disruption? Then we have completely washed our biggest trading partner out our life with deals elsewhere?
How many years of chaos do you think it is until we reach that goal?
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
The quandry for northern seats was thus: Brexit would harm the people voting for it. Remember the interview with Blair where he quoted someone he met who after a bit of back and forth said "its like you think you know more than I do" to which he pointed out "well I do!"
The May deal was an act of self-harm, like chopping off a leg. People voting for it thought they were voting for a speedier pair of trainers and instead would be left harmed for life. Yes it wasn't as bad for them as no deal which chops off both legs. But MPs decided that they had to protect their constituents from themselves.
Which may well be arrogant and certainly a lot of MPs were punished for it. But as this plays out we will see who was right. The Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019, or the Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time who now protest outside the Nissan factory pleading for its future and their jobs.
The argument is very polarised and I am not at all relaxed about the impending chaos but this saga has a long way to run and nobody here or in Europe can possibly predict the eventual outcome
There will be a deal before Dec 31st, probably over this weekend, otherwise next week. The UK wins on fish, the EU on LPF, although there will be a review clause in a few years time. Pretty confident in that prediction; it is all that is left and plausible.
Both sides will claim a hard fought victory, Boris will dress up as Santa and deliver his Xmas presents to the nation of deal and vaccine. (Not so confident on the last bit, literally at least).
A Mighty Victory!!! That's what the usual suspects in the media will declare. Then the drip, drip of what it actually means in practice.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
Nah she's wrong. Labour fucked this badly, it was on the table for the softest of Brexits for the People's Vote and they went shit or bust because they were too busy in-fighting. As a Brexit voter it was hard to believe at the time because I was resigned to getting a Brexit I didnt want, but seemingly now there are 2 brilliant options on the table that I could have never imagined a few years ago.
TM deal needed a handful of labour mps to approve it and had they done so we would have achieved a deal and the labour mps most likely have retained their seats
Nah she's wrong. Labour fucked this badly, it was on the table for the softest of Brexits for the People's Vote and they went shit or bust because they were too busy in-fighting. As a Brexit voter it was hard to believe at the time because I was resigned to getting a Brexit I didnt want, but seemingly now there are 2 brilliant options on the table that I could have never imagined a few years ago.
No, you are wrong. May's deal was far from soft Brexit, since it involved SM and CU exit. And voting through her version of the WA risked offering carte blanche to her likely successor to negotiate an even harder Brexit FTA. Most Labour MPs voted for a real soft Brexit option (EEA) in the indicative votes but that was vetoed by Tory MPs. Personally I see little difference between May's deal and where we are now, especially as May's deal might well have ended up somewhere like this anyway - I mean, Johnson has tried to renegotiate his own exit deal, I am sure he would have torn up what May agreed to.
Interesting to see that opinion polling (YouGov’s and Kantar’s) shows a clear majority thinking that the government is handling Brexit negotiations badly, a clear majority thinking that it would be better if the 2016 referendum had not gone the way of Leave, and a clear majority thinking it preferable to leave with a deal than without one. If Boris Johnson simply wanted to be on the side of public opinion, he’d strike a deal with the EU, with Gove standing ready to explain that the “compromises” he’d made were actually O.K. But of course Johnson cares not about public opinion but about support for himself, now and future. Johnson knows that keeping such support as he now has and that might increase depends a great deal upon retaining the support of his staunchest supporters, i.e. of members of the ERG, and those in the nation who share their views. Yet Johnson can’t simply set aside the views of everyone else. So how to play it? It could be that all of this stuff at PMQs yesterday about sovereignty and fish was supposed to help the ERG etc. think of him as on their side even if he does have to capitulate. And it could be that Johnson thinks that he may not go down well in history if he reaches a decision that will be seen to have impoverished the nation to an even greater extent than he’d already achieved. So I find I can’t predict what may unfold. But given the trickiness of the calculations Johnson needs to make about his own popularity and his own future record, I don’t find it at all surprising that “negotiations” are taking so long.
If we no deal I expect it will be 2-3 years before we seriously open up negotiations for a trade deal and they will be in the back of the queue as APAC becomes a much better bet for a services based economy.
Are the British right friends with China again because the last I heard they wanted a Firm Line and economic sanctions to punish them for spreading the Wuhan Flu.
It is been a few years since they were able direct wars and conflict from the comfort of their playpens. Kuwait / Balkans / Iraq was quite a while ago and they have had nothing since.
Seems there are toddlers looking forward to the EU suffering because of Brexit.
Of course the EU will suffer because of Brexit, just like the UK will.
BTW Almost nobody is taking any notice of the negotiations, here in Germany. It's not making the news. (The main EU related news right now is about Turkey).
Whatever problems Brexit brings most people here are going to give 100% of the blame to Britain (obviously).
It's worse than toddlers; it's teenagers.
We dumped our boy/girl friend, and a chunk of UK opinion is going bezerk that Europe's response is "whatevs".
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
The quandry for northern seats was thus: Brexit would harm the people voting for it. Remember the interview with Blair where he quoted someone he met who after a bit of back and forth said "its like you think you know more than I do" to which he pointed out "well I do!"
The May deal was an act of self-harm, like chopping off a leg. People voting for it thought they were voting for a speedier pair of trainers and instead would be left harmed for life. Yes it wasn't as bad for them as no deal which chops off both legs. But MPs decided that they had to protect their constituents from themselves.
Which may well be arrogant and certainly a lot of MPs were punished for it. But as this plays out we will see who was right. The Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019, or the Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time who now protest outside the Nissan factory pleading for its future and their jobs.
The argument is very polarised and I am not at all relaxed about the impending chaos but this saga has a long way to run and nobody here or in Europe can possibly predict the eventual outcome
There will be a deal before Dec 31st, probably over this weekend, otherwise next week. The UK wins on fish, the EU on LPF, although there will be a review clause in a few years time. Pretty confident in that prediction; it is all that is left and plausible.
Both sides will claim a hard fought victory, Boris will dress up as Santa and deliver his Xmas presents to the nation of deal and vaccine. (Not so confident on the last bit, literally at least).
A Mighty Victory!!! That's what the usual suspects in the media will declare. Then the drip, drip of what it actually means in practice.
One thing Trump has reminded us is that people are quite happy to live in a false reality. If Johnson gets a deal that breaks his red lines, he may well be able to keep his support base from acknowledging it, even if it triggers parts of the ERG and Farage. Lets hope so.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
I think it's the French elite that are most afraid of the UK prospering outside of the EU which is why they want to tie us in to their rules forever and a day or make the cost of no deal as high as they can so any benefits will take years to materialise.
It's a contingency we should have been planning for and once again leads me back to the extension not taken. We should be spending the next two years building up no deal infrastructure so when it does come we're in a position to benefit from it day one.
We could resurrect British Leyland smelting its own steel.
But that's the point. The French have never stopped subsidising useless industries, taxing businesses not in the ENA network out of existence and kowtowing to the vested interests of farming and fishing. Is Brexit bad for Britain? Probably. Is it bad for France? That's a more difficult question.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
If it's a No Deal Brexit on 1st Jan 2021 then it's no more Mr. Nice Guy from the UK.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
Oh no. You're in one of your bonkers moods.
Get in the tanks, troops.
We'll be like the Black Knight. Only we will be the one who had chopped our own legs off sitting them shouting for the EU to come back so we can bite their arms off.
That you can't possibly wrap your head around the idea that the UK might be just fine after some disruption without a deal is very amusing.
Some disruption? Then we have completely washed our biggest trading partner out our life with deals elsewhere?
How many years of chaos do you think it is until we reach that goal?
There won't be years of chaos, chaos will be worst in the first few days and weeks and will rapidly be mitigated from there as people find solutions to avoid it. Necessity is the mother of invention.
I think a clean Brexit, getting through any disruption and then all sides in a couple of years time beginning talks afresh may be the best thing to happen now.
A bit like SpaceX beginning afresh rather than using Saturn rocket technology.
Trying to retrofit EU rules into a post-Brexit agreement isn't working. Have a clean break, let cooler heads come together in the future with a clean blank piece of paper.
This isn't a game you know. People might very well suffer in the meantime.
C'est la vie.
Yes, you've made it very clear that you don't give a f*ck.
Why should I?
Any omelette involves breaking a few eggs. Any change can result in suffering.
If you're to petrified to ever make a decision then long term that causes far more suffering.
It just says a lot about you as a person.
That I'm not a child?
That I understand poltics involves hard choices sometimes?
You clearly are a child as your entire argument is childish.
Regardless, the Brexit campaign did not inform people that suffering might be required. We were told it was nothing but extra money for the NHS and greener pastures. The lies and deceit will not be forgotten by those who suffer.
A difference in view is the essence of pb but calling a poster a child is childish itself
Treating serious issues as a "game" with no regard to the actual effects on the suffering of real people, real families, and real communities is the very definition of childish.
And of course such attitude is rife amongst the Conservative Party.
Nobody is treating this as a game
Strong views are expressed on both sides and things are said but childish, no
@Philip_Thompson is treating it as a game. The Government is treating this as a game.
The suffering of families, people, and communities is treated as unimportant and meaningless when compared to the ultimate goal achieving a fantasy land Brexit.
They do not care if we all end up poorer as a result as long as they get what they want.
With the greatest of respect nobody is treating this as a game and as far as I am concerned the EU carry as much responsibility as HMG to resolve this serious situation
We are in this situation entirely out of our own choice. Nobody is to blame other than the May government, the Johnson government, and their supporters.
Of course there are many to blame including all those ex Labour mps who bitterly regret not backing TM deal and in the process lost their seats
Also Corbyn was a disaster in the process and I am of the opinion had Starmer led the Labour party we would already be out and trading with the EU, most probably in the single market
Maybe you need to accept others contributed to where we are and not just the extreme ERG in the conservative party
The quandry for northern seats was thus: Brexit would harm the people voting for it. Remember the interview with Blair where he quoted someone he met who after a bit of back and forth said "its like you think you know more than I do" to which he pointed out "well I do!"
The May deal was an act of self-harm, like chopping off a leg. People voting for it thought they were voting for a speedier pair of trainers and instead would be left harmed for life. Yes it wasn't as bad for them as no deal which chops off both legs. But MPs decided that they had to protect their constituents from themselves.
Which may well be arrogant and certainly a lot of MPs were punished for it. But as this plays out we will see who was right. The Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019, or the Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time who now protest outside the Nissan factory pleading for its future and their jobs.
The argument is very polarised and I am not at all relaxed about the impending chaos but this saga has a long way to run and nobody here or in Europe can possibly predict the eventual outcome
There will be a deal before Dec 31st, probably over this weekend, otherwise next week. The UK wins on fish, the EU on LPF, although there will be a review clause in a few years time. Pretty confident in that prediction; it is all that is left and plausible.
Both sides will claim a hard fought victory, Boris will dress up as Santa and deliver his Xmas presents to the nation of deal and vaccine. (Not so confident on the last bit, literally at least).
A Mighty Victory!!! That's what the usual suspects in the media will declare. Then the drip, drip of what it actually means in practice.
One thing Trump has reminded us is that people are quite happy to live in a false reality. If Johnson gets a deal that breaks his red lines, he may well be able to keep his support base from acknowledging it, even if it triggers parts of the ERG and Farage. Lets hope so.
That works if it’s a cult of personality. Brexit has too much of an independent identity for Boris to betray it too obviously.
I'm very much looking forwards to brexit meaning brexit for the EU. No more security and intelligence cooperation, no more fishing waters, EU companies setting up capitalised subsidiary companies in the UK to get access to finance.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
“ no more fishing waters” don’t we need to sell our catches to them, and import what we need from them? Our waters are not full of the fish we need. Although cod can enjoy our waters, they dont tend to swim into it.
If no deal is bad chaos and a New PM signs up for a deal to bring it to a close, that’s likely brexit tried, failed, done with forever, in terms of being able to win elections on it instead lose elections on it.
There is a global market for frozen fish, we buy the fish we like primarily from Iceland and Norway both of whom have just inked fresh trade deals with us allowing for the trade of fish with both nations without quotas or tariffs.
Additionally, if we have the fish and the EU want to buy it they'll need to change their rules so they can buy the fish.
The thing about no deal is that it requires a lot of upfront investment and cost, once that's done there really isn't much need for a deal and it becomes a "nice to have". What the French position is at the moment is to try and make the cost of no deal as high as possible so that it may be a year or two before the UK sees anything like normality.
Once we no deal it will be no deal for at least a few years.
Years???
Boris does not have the support back home for no deal chaos for years with promise 2 years it will be okay., not in his party, not in the country. 4 or 5 months no deal chaos, British public opinion can take no more, Boris replacement signs up to the EU bottom line and brings the chaos to a close.
It’s our biggest trading partner. You reckon we can replace them trading elsewhere? That’s like for real you believe that?
Different nations within the EU trade with us on different levels, almost all of them sell us more than we sell them.
I think if Boris no deals he will be politically invulnerable until election day in 2024 and there is no mechanism to remove him.
On new markets, I think you'll probably be surprised as to how fast businesses will adapt to the new reality. The UK has free trade deals with a significant number of nations now, our trade with the US remains essentially unchanged and we're in talks to join the CPTPP. A no deal UK would, in trade terms, actually have a pretty decent hand globally, just not with the EU.
Interesting to see that opinion polling (YouGov’s and Kantar’s) shows a clear majority thinking that the government is handling Brexit negotiations badly, a clear majority thinking that it would be better if the 2016 referendum had not gone the way of Leave, and a clear majority thinking it preferable to leave with a deal than without one. If Boris Johnson simply wanted to be on the side of public opinion, he’d strike a deal with the EU, with Gove standing ready to explain that the “compromises” he’d made were actually O.K. But of course Johnson cares not about public opinion but about support for himself, now and future. Johnson knows that keeping such support as he now has and that might increase depends a great deal upon retaining the support of his staunchest supporters, i.e. of members of the ERG, and those in the nation who share their views. Yet Johnson can’t simply set aside the views of everyone else. So how to play it? It could be that all of this stuff at PMQs yesterday about sovereignty and fish was supposed to help the ERG etc. think of him as on their side even if he does have to capitulate. And it could be that Johnson thinks that he may not go down well in history if he reaches a decision that will be seen to have impoverished the nation to an even greater extent than he’d already achieved. So I find I can’t predict what may unfold. But given the trickiness of the calculations Johnson needs to make about his own popularity and his own future record, I don’t find it at all surprising that “negotiations” are taking so long.
Public opinion and Tory opinion are not aligned. For many that simply does not compute. No dispute who will nay must prevail. It is right, proper, and patriotic,
Comments
The evens price on a deal is huge, but Im thinking it'll be bigger as people start to panic. What Im trying to gauge is when and with which bookmaker the price will be biggest so I can lump on. It might be worth me waiting until at least Sunday.
We'd dig in, get through the pain, emerge out the other side and the EU would have lost the one chip they had: Fear.
So they are believing this, but there will be a deal?
Those of you betting on there will be a deal need to think about it.
The reality may well be, EU leaders pretty confident Boris does not have the support back home for no deal, not in his party, not in the country. 4 or 5 months no deal chaos, British public opinion can take no more, Boris replacement signs up to the EU bottom line and brings the chaos to a close.
Once a fervent Eurosceptic, I came to believe that leaving would be a terrible blunder
BY ED WEST"
https://unherd.com/2020/12/brexit-was-it-worth-it
Better agreement than the EU's.
The desperation in their no deal contingency is really quite telling. That they feel the need to threaten the UK with what amounts to an economic blockade shows just how fragile their position actually is.
If only Boris had got an extra year or two to get the national infrastructure ready for no deal. In that position it really would be a no brainer. As it stands there is going to be a year or two of very difficult decision making and lots of upheaval in employment and industry. It's going to happen either way because the UK will never agree to the LPF and governance positions held by the EU, but we're going into it completely unprepared and in the shadow of a global pandemic which we're yet to recover from.
I remember being told last year that the UK would simply agree to the LPF and the EU would win whatever it was they were asking for by all of the usual suspects. For the whole year I've been saying that no UK government (Tory or Labour) would ever agree to either the LPF or governance that gave the EU unilateral right to apply tariffs without arbitration. Now it's happening because the EU didn't negotiate on either of those positions. It ending in no deal.
There is no way that once the UK assumes its territorial waters, the ability to set regulations and a post action arbitration via the WTO it will ever give them up as part of any deal with any nation or trading bloc. The EU are making a grave miscalculation and it's going to cost us what could have been a pretty good trade deal.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/01/how-biden-should-investigate-trump/617260/
The give away is your second sentence which clearly puts any blame on the failure of negotiations on the UK, and none on the EU. This is emotionally influenced. I think the EU (and, remember, I've always supported a Deal and had no problem with a LPF) isn't being rational in going for a 30-40% UK cut of fish (a big win), fairness on state aid interpretations on both sides of the channel and lighting tariffs and governance arbitration thereof.
On virtually everything else I think the UK and EU are fully aligned in a fair deal.
They are being way too sensitive and hardline - and it might blow the whole thing out of the water. The only thing I think the UK is being too persnickety on is locking in some of the current LPF standards, where we're never going to move away from them anyway.
The vote was to pass TM deal into law
If we no deal I expect it will be 2-3 years before we seriously open up negotiations for a trade deal and they will be in the back of the queue as APAC becomes a much better bet for a services based economy.
I don't want it but we need to hit them where it hurts. We've already managed to upset them now by approving a vaccine early so they're far more sensitive and fragile than they let on.
Wasn’t it me who gave you this example earlier this week?
You are right, the true history is Tory government spent years building up stocks to win the fight, thatcher could have waited it out years. The strikers did a HY, fought anyway even though they were doomed to lose.
The bit you got wrong, it’s EU clearly in thatchers winning seat for the waiting game. They could go years with their bit of no deal chaos, Boris and his no dealers can’t. 4 months of chaos tops.
It most certainly is not a game and of course there are two parties to this dispute
It's a contingency we should have been planning for and once again leads me back to the extension not taken. We should be spending the next two years building up no deal infrastructure so when it does come we're in a position to benefit from it day one.
Are the words of those treating this like a game.
We are here entirely at our own making, with leadership who are too cowardly to explain the consequences of our choice through fear of upsetting the very people they've lied to in the first place.
If we crash out with "no deal" then the supporters of this project will own any suffering that follows. It cannot be allowed for them to pass the buck of the blame onto the EU "bogeyman".
It is up to them to make things right.
Of course I expect nothing other than cowardly and shameless blame-passing. It has already started.
It is like watching four year olds....
Fine. So we leave on WTA rules. So we have no trade agreement at all. But the EU rules of standards still apply. To sell anything in their market the product has to be compliant. Those rules will be made by the EU and enforced in EU courts. So we can choose to not be bound by them - and not sell them anything. Or we can be compliant. As we are in any other foreign market.
The EU can and will impose their rules as they see fit. Our options are (a) comply and trade or (b) don't. Its not about them being unreasonable - they can do as they wish as a sovereign trading block. You'd think people would understand this whilst foaming on about sovereignty. You could argue they were being unreasonable if their rules had radically changed. But they haven't. And we knew what they were at the point where we decided to do this - its just we thought the rules didn't apply to us.
A large haddock on a Scottish fishing vessel is more likely
If no deal is bad chaos and a New PM signs up for a deal to bring it to a close, that’s likely brexit tried, failed, done with forever, in terms of being able to win elections on it instead lose elections on it.
Get in the tanks, troops.
The May deal was an act of self-harm, like chopping off a leg. People voting for it thought they were voting for a speedier pair of trainers and instead would be left harmed for life. Yes it wasn't as bad for them as no deal which chops off both legs. But MPs decided that they had to protect their constituents from themselves.
Which may well be arrogant and certainly a lot of MPs were punished for it. But as this plays out we will see who was right. The Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019, or the Labour to Tory switchers who voted for Brexit and voted Tory for the first time who now protest outside the Nissan factory pleading for its future and their jobs.
The Club you are leaving may offer you some compensatory terms over which you may negotiate, but they are not obliged to and whether they do or not they are not disputing anything with you. They are just negotiating some sensible arrangements if possible.
I wouldn't call that a dispute.
And we shouldn't respect somebody view that we know to be false. Again, should we respect Alex Jones take on the world? Although, I have a feeling those pushing this agenda think its ok to target him, but not others...despite both being equally full of bullshit.
Where you are confused is that you seem to think that understanding that we are in a weak position is the same as siding with the EU. Reality is reality, wishing it otherwise isn't saying everything the EU does is reasonable. In fact I've never said that - the EU have made lots of mistakes: misjudging the UK political realities, and above all screwing up the negotiations by their insistence on negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, defining the transition, before either side had the faintest idea what we were supposed to be transitioning to. I'm pretty sure I've called that 'brain-dead' on numerous occasions, which is hardly a resounding endorsement.
But we are where we are. And it is the UK which is going to be very hard hit by it. That is the dispassionate reality, and, as far the damage to the UK is concerned, the fault lies with our own government. EU politicians will have to deal with any blame from their own voters on the damage done to EU economies. That's entirely their business, but the damage done to the UK is the responsibility of the UK government, by definition.
Long paper about major concerns over the protocol for using PCR for covid, as originally outlined by Corman-Drosten et al.
https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/
Additionally, if we have the fish and the EU want to buy it they'll need to change their rules so they can buy the fish.
The thing about no deal is that it requires a lot of upfront investment and cost, once that's done there really isn't much need for a deal and it becomes a "nice to have". What the French position is at the moment is to try and make the cost of no deal as high as possible so that it may be a year or two before the UK sees anything like normality.
Once we no deal it will be no deal for at least a few years.
Deepest of deep joys.
"I will have such revenges on you both,
That all the world shall—I will do such things—
What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be
The terrors of the earth!”
Is there something in the water supply in SE England? Has somebody dumped something psychoactive in a reservoir?
Boris does not have the support back home for no deal chaos for years with promise 2 years it will be okay., not in his party, not in the country. 4 or 5 months no deal chaos, British public opinion can take no more, Boris replacement signs up to the EU bottom line and brings the chaos to a close.
It’s our biggest trading partner. You reckon we can replace them trading elsewhere? That’s like for real you believe that?
Of course the EU will suffer because of Brexit, just like the UK will.
BTW Almost nobody is taking any notice of the negotiations, here in Germany. It's not making the news. (The main EU related news right now is about Turkey).
Whatever problems Brexit brings most people here are going to give 100% of the blame to Britain (obviously).
Both sides will claim a hard fought victory, Boris will dress up as Santa and deliver his Xmas presents to the nation of deal and vaccine. (Not so confident on the last bit, literally at least).
*Still love that pun/typo.
If we get a deal, it's going to ruin my December and Christmas.
Besides we have a massive trade deficit with them remember.
How many years of chaos do you think it is until we reach that goal?
That's what the usual suspects in the media will declare.
Then the drip, drip of what it actually means in practice.
https://twitter.com/BBCMorningLive/status/1336970725878587392
https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1336998485955055616
Johnson knows that keeping such support as he now has and that might increase depends a great deal upon retaining the support of his staunchest supporters, i.e. of members of the ERG, and those in the nation who share their views. Yet Johnson can’t simply set aside the views of everyone else. So how to play it?
It could be that all of this stuff at PMQs yesterday about sovereignty and fish was supposed to help the ERG etc. think of him as on their side even if he does have to capitulate. And it could be that Johnson thinks that he may not go down well in history if he reaches a decision that will be seen to have impoverished the nation to an even greater extent than he’d already achieved. So I find I can’t predict what may unfold. But given the trickiness of the calculations Johnson needs to make about his own popularity and his own future record, I don’t find it at all surprising that “negotiations” are taking so long.
https://www.sideshow.com/collectibles/star-wars-the-child-sideshow-collectibles-400369
We dumped our boy/girl friend, and a chunk of UK opinion is going bezerk that Europe's response is "whatevs".
David Frost is a bloody scruff, he's wearing his tie like a schoolkid.
It should extend to just above where the trouser starts.
https://twitter.com/ionapier/status/1336796141611003904
I think if Boris no deals he will be politically invulnerable until election day in 2024 and there is no mechanism to remove him.
On new markets, I think you'll probably be surprised as to how fast businesses will adapt to the new reality. The UK has free trade deals with a significant number of nations now, our trade with the US remains essentially unchanged and we're in talks to join the CPTPP. A no deal UK would, in trade terms, actually have a pretty decent hand globally, just not with the EU.
https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/1337020937720516608
Farage personally wanted to handcuff her to her deportation plane seat.
Honest fat git stands next to dissembling fat git.