Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
The British Government said they couldn’t find £20m to feed hungry English children over the school holidays, but they can find £29m for a festival of Brexit. That sums up the very nature of this uncaring and cruel British Government
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
Actually they have, I remember when Priti Patel used to be Press Secretary to William Hague and Cummings used to work for Gove when Gove was in opposition.
Yeah... not sure the paychecks were from 'The Conservative Party..'.
I may be wrong. Happened to me back in the 80s you know,..
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
Actually they have, I remember when Priti Patel used to be Press Secretary to William Hague and Cummings used to work for Gove when Gove was in opposition.
Yeah... not sure the paychecks were from 'The Conservative Party..'.
I may be wrong. Happened to me back in the 80s you know,..
The British Government said they couldn’t find £20m to feed hungry English children over the school holidays, but they can find £29m for a festival of Brexit. That sums up the very nature of this uncaring and cruel British Government
Agreed. They’re almost as vile as Ian Blackford and that is saying quite something.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
"I think she's doing quite well"
Aside from being short, female and Asian, which really doesn't add weight to one side of the scales or another, what has she done since becoming Home Secretary? You can skip the bullying part and the not being fired for the bullying, I'm well versed in that.
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
"I think she's doing quite well"
Aside from being short, female and Asian, which really doesn't add weight to one side of the scales or another, what has she done since becoming Home Secretary? You can skip the bullying part and the not being fired for the bullying, I'm well versed in that.
Mainly stayed in the job.
Home Secretary is a post that has trashed many careers. Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think.
Devi Shridar on Channel 4 News again. She always seems to talk sense about the virus, but I have to say my faith in her judgement is rather undermined by the fact that she has a banksy illustration on her living room wall,
I assume she has resigned presumably because Mr Ross is not Brexity/Johnsonian enough and he is being in such poor taste as to support SNP Gmt pox restrictions.
But she's a List MSP so it's entirely up to the party to boot her out. Too little time and too difficult with the pox for by-elections - as I suspect she has calculated. Wonder what happens in May? Maybe Mr Galloway is on the line ...
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
If the No Deal diehards refuse to even accept a Canada style FTA they can sod off to Farage as far as I am concerned and never come back!!
Well said.
But what if that (no deal) becomes Cons Party policy and/or is enacted. Where would that leave your relationship with the Party?
I would still stay in the party and argue for a Deal, I am obviously not going to go off to Farage either way am I!
You swallowed Brexit although you believed that the wellbeing of the UK was best served by staying in the EU. You now say that if the Party said it wanted no deal you would stay when you believe that it would be very bad for your country.
So at what point would you think that the Party had moved too far from your beliefs, and was inflicting too much harm on the country you love, such that you would, in all good faith, no longer be able to remain a member of it?
I believe he draws the line in recognising that Scots have a right to national self-determination like Cameron and Thatcher said. If the Tory leader won't send in jackboots to squash the rebellious Scots then that is his deal breaker.
Preserving the Union at all costs is a pivotal part of being a Tory, backing a No Deal Brexit as opposed to simply respecting the Brexit vote is not, just another reason why you are not and never will be a Tory.
2014 was a once in generation referendum and the Scots voted to stay in the UK and that should be respected
Yebbut wanting to leave the EU is a pivotal part of being a Tory in today's party. Boris even made every would be MP swear as such.
Respecting the Leave vote yes, the Tory manifesto also set out the Brexit deal with the EU they were aiming for, only Farage's party in 2019 was pushing No Deal
Indeed. Reclaim laws and money being the first thing that the manifesto said.
If the EU wants to control our laws and money and won't give us a deal without that control then it would betray the manifesto to sign up to that deal.
Sod off to Farage then, good riddance and don't come back!!
The Tory manifesto never made any promises on state aid
I couldn't care less about state aid.
I do care about laws and money which is what the manifesto said.
State aid IS about laws and money.
Yes quite. So why were you saying you couldn't care less about State Aid?
Because "State Aid" is normally presumed to mean simply supporting failed companies or state champions.
But it isn't what is being argued about. It is disingenuous completely to call this a debate about state aid, that is not the issue. The whole "level playing field" concept is about controlling our laws and money - if we give a blank cheque to the EU to determine if something breaches the "level playing field" and they are the sole arbiters of it using their court then that would mean we do not control our laws and money except at their bidding. That is what makes this such a nebulous and fraught discussion that is occuring.
That is the purists view, yes. Which you will need to come away from in order to support the deal. Hopefully you're doing some mental prep for that.
Indeed, otherwise he can go back to voting for Farage as he did last May
I never voted for Farage. I dislike Farage and he is irrelevant and immaterial.
You voted Brexit Party last May in the European elections under their leader Farage, you voted for Farage
A protest vote against Theresa "GO HOME" May, there were no good options. 🤷🏻♂️
I see. So you expressed your disgust at Mrs May's anti-migrant tone by voting for Nigel Farage.
No.
I was disgusted by both Farage and May and so torn how to vote. Tempted to spoil my ballot.
In the end I lent my vote to the BXP as a protest vote to get rid of May. Because May was PM and Farage was an inconsequential nobody. It also had the nice side effect.of getting rid of Farage too.
In my shoes what else should I have done?
Well, certainly not voted for somebody who disgusted you. What sort of twisted logic led to that?
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
There's five of them listed as worse than William Henry Harrison, who was only in office for 30 days. That's either a generous 'default' ranking or they must have been terrible presidents.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
"I think she's doing quite well"
Aside from being short, female and Asian, which really doesn't add weight to one side of the scales or another, what has she done since becoming Home Secretary? You can skip the bullying part and the not being fired for the bullying, I'm well versed in that.
Mainly stayed in the job.
Home Secretary is a post that has trashed many careers. Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think.
Much less so since Justice was spun off thirteen years ago. There have been six Home Secretaries in that time of whom only one has lasted less than a year and only one (Amber Rudd) has had to resign over failings within the department. Three have - unusually - gone on to a more senior position (two to Treasury briefs and one to No. 10).
I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.
The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
Like a "nut" is very apt.
Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....
The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.
Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.
The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.
Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.
America? One party state now.
I doubt it @contrarian, I think, if the States is going to be one party, it will be the Republicans in charge, really for several reasons:
1. Trump has, in effect, emasculated the whole Romney / McCain types in the GOP. Beyond the Trumpers, there are plenty who are unhappy with the likes of The Lincoln Project and even more who recognise that the coalition he built has real electoral legs. The end result is the Republican party is far more united than the Democrats. Biden's picks so far are centrist. While the Left does not have that many Congressional seats, it has provided a lot of the power on the ground in terms of voter activation.
2. The Democrats face significant secular problems regarding the Hispanic block, which is not just limited to Florida or southern Texas. There is a big fight brewing in California at the moment over Harris' appointment with both the Black and the Hispanic caucuses demanding their candidate be selected. If it is a Black candidate is selected, expect the Hispanic caucus to be upset. Note also immigration reform / DACA is not the slam dunk for the Democrats it was assumed;
3. Less commented on has been the 18% of Black men who (apparently) voted for Trump. Given older Black voters were unlikely to switch because of historical resonance / souls to the polls etc etc, that probably means a decent chunk of younger Black men went for Trump.
4. Higher Education enrolment is declining (mid single digits probably this year) and has been declining for a few years with stagnation before that. Given education is a defining feature of likely vote intention, that growth engine is less powerful than it was;
5. The Republicans kept state legislatures, which mean they have a big advantage going into 2022 Congressional elections. Down party election results also generally favoured them as well. That gives a big advantage.
6. Many Republicans generally believe the silver lining around the fraud claims is that procedures will be tightened for the next elections. The complaints re mail-in ballots in 2020 largely mirror those in California in 2018 when the Republicans lost a number of House seats where they had comfortable majorities on the night which were then whittled away by mail in ballots. There is a view the focus from 2018 may have acted as a deterrent for 2020. Worth noting, of the 10 seats the Republicans have picked up so far, 3 have been in California, with a fourth one possible.
I`ve been laying Trump - big - well before Covid was heard of. I was confident that Trump was toast. However, the dust having settled, I admit that I was wrong. Trump would have won if it wasn`t for Covid. My bets have come in but I was lucky.
The decisive factor was the increased use of postal voting due to Covid. I`m not for a moment suggesting fraud, just that postal voting increased the turnout and benefited the Dems deferentially. (Plus, maybe, a higher proportion of Trump voters died from Covid.)
What about future elections? It all depends on postal voting going back to previous rules. If 2020 was a one-off, and the methodology of voting returns to normal, then I expect the Republicans to bounce back next time assuming that have a half-sharp candidate. Especially if Biden become beholden to any sort of BLM or woke agenda from that wing of his party.
I hate to say it but Trump was unlucky.
Not a theory I want to accept - and I don't - but it is definitely possible. It was closer than I thought it'd be so would he have won without Covid? Maybe. Thankfully we'll never know. I don't want to think about it too much tbh. Be like dwelling on that lorry that nearly ploughed into me on the M25 that time. Technical objection though. I would not say unlucky. I'd more say that if he somehow got through his 4 years without a big, high viz crisis coming along to expose him, that would have made him a very fortunate orange-hued wannabe fascist indeed.
Thanks for responding to my post. I thought it would produce a larger response TBH. I think you are clutching at straws though.
I`ve looked back and my first lays of Trump were 22 January. Then I doubled down early Feb - all before Covid - then doubled down a few more times post-Covid. And I backed Biden and Dems on top. Overall my biggest ever exposure by a mile.
They would all have lost if it wasn`t for Covid. I don`t doubt it. Not for a second.
How close was it? It would have only taken a few thousand to have turned, say, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Or Georgia and Pennsylvania. I don`t mean few thousand more Trump votes. I mean a few thousand less Biden votes. What proportion of 2016 turnout was postal? What proportion of turnout in 2020 was postal? I don`t know these figures - but I don`t need to check. He`d have won tidily.
Dodged a bullet; makes me feel sick thinking about it.
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
There's five of them listed as worse than William Henry Harrison, who was only in office for 30 days. That's either a generous 'default' ranking or they must have been terrible presidents.
The bar is indeed very low, but I think it is going to get lower on the next update.
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
There's five of them listed as worse than William Henry Harrison, who was only in office for 30 days. That's either a generous 'default' ranking or they must have been terrible presidents.
Well, Harrison may not have done anything very brilliant, but nor did he do anything very terrible. His one serious misjudgement was to speak for too long at his inauguration.
Some of the others, however, did no good at all but didn’t quite manage the ‘nothing very terrible’ bit.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
"I think she's doing quite well"
Aside from being short, female and Asian, which really doesn't add weight to one side of the scales or another, what has she done since becoming Home Secretary? You can skip the bullying part and the not being fired for the bullying, I'm well versed in that.
Mainly stayed in the job.
Home Secretary is a post that has trashed many careers. Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think.
"Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think."
Finally, someone to be spoken of in the same breath as Vespasian, Qin Shi Huang, King Alfred.
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.
The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
Like a "nut" is very apt.
Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....
The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.
Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.
The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.
Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.
America? One party state now.
I doubt it @contrarian, I think, if the States is going to be one party, it will be the Republicans in charge, really for several reasons:
1. Trump has, in effect, emasculated the whole Romney / McCain types in the GOP. Beyond the Trumpers, there are plenty who are unhappy with the likes of The Lincoln Project and even more who recognise that the coalition he built has real electoral legs. The end result is the Republican party is far more united than the Democrats. Biden's picks so far are centrist. While the Left does not have that many Congressional seats, it has provided a lot of the power on the ground in terms of voter activation.
2. The Democrats face significant secular problems regarding the Hispanic block, which is not just limited to Florida or southern Texas. There is a big fight brewing in California at the moment over Harris' appointment with both the Black and the Hispanic caucuses demanding their candidate be selected. If it is a Black candidate is selected, expect the Hispanic caucus to be upset. Note also immigration reform / DACA is not the slam dunk for the Democrats it was assumed;
3. Less commented on has been the 18% of Black men who (apparently) voted for Trump. Given older Black voters were unlikely to switch because of historical resonance / souls to the polls etc etc, that probably means a decent chunk of younger Black men went for Trump.
4. Higher Education enrolment is declining (mid single digits probably this year) and has been declining for a few years with stagnation before that. Given education is a defining feature of likely vote intention, that growth engine is less powerful than it was;
5. The Republicans kept state legislatures, which mean they have a big advantage going into 2022 Congressional elections. Down party election results also generally favoured them as well. That gives a big advantage.
6. Many Republicans generally believe the silver lining around the fraud claims is that procedures will be tightened for the next elections. The complaints re mail-in ballots in 2020 largely mirror those in California in 2018 when the Republicans lost a number of House seats where they had comfortable majorities on the night which were then whittled away by mail in ballots. There is a view the focus from 2018 may have acted as a deterrent for 2020. Worth noting, of the 10 seats the Republicans have picked up so far, 3 have been in California, with a fourth one possible.
I`ve been laying Trump - big - well before Covid was heard of. I was confident that Trump was toast. However, the dust having settled, I admit that I was wrong. Trump would have won if it wasn`t for Covid. My bets have come in but I was lucky.
The decisive factor was the increased use of postal voting due to Covid. I`m not for a moment suggesting fraud, just that postal voting increased the turnout and benefited the Dems deferentially. (Plus, maybe, a higher proportion of Trump voters died from Covid.)
What about future elections? It all depends on postal voting going back to previous rules. If 2020 was a one-off, and the methodology of voting returns to normal, then I expect the Republicans to bounce back next time assuming that have a half-sharp candidate. Especially if Biden become beholden to any sort of BLM or woke agenda from that wing of his party.
I hate to say it but Trump was unlucky.
Not a theory I want to accept - and I don't - but it is definitely possible. It was closer than I thought it'd be so would he have won without Covid? Maybe. Thankfully we'll never know. I don't want to think about it too much tbh. Be like dwelling on that lorry that nearly ploughed into me on the M25 that time. Technical objection though. I would not say unlucky. I'd more say that if he somehow got through his 4 years without a big, high viz crisis coming along to expose him, that would have made him a very fortunate orange-hued wannabe fascist indeed.
Thanks for responding to my post. I thought it would produce a larger response TBH. I think you are clutching at straws though.
I`ve looked back and my first lays of Trump were 22 January. Then I doubled down early Feb - all before Covid - then doubled down a few more times post-Covid. And I backed Biden and Dems on top. Overall my biggest ever exposure by a mile.
They would all have lost if it wasn`t for Covid. I don`t doubt it. Not for a second.
How close was it? It would have only taken a few thousand to have turned, say, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Or Georgia and Pennsylvania. I don`t mean few thousand more Trump votes. I mean a few thousand less Biden votes. What proportion of 2016 turnout was postal? What proportion of turnout in 2020 was postal? I don`t know these figures - but I don`t need to check. He`d have won tidily.
Dodged a bullet; makes me feel sick thinking about it.
Could have been worse. You could have backed Bernie...
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
"I think she's doing quite well"
Aside from being short, female and Asian, which really doesn't add weight to one side of the scales or another, what has she done since becoming Home Secretary? You can skip the bullying part and the not being fired for the bullying, I'm well versed in that.
Mainly stayed in the job.
Home Secretary is a post that has trashed many careers. Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think.
"Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think."
Finally, someone to be spoken of in the same breath as Vespasian, Qin Shi Huang, King Alfred.
I don't know about Vespasian or Alfred, but I feel confident in stating that Qin Shi Huang was probably at least a bit more of a bully than Patel, in fairness.
Seriously, if it was about taking a stand in refusing to follow restrictions or pay the fines for doing that it'd be one thing, but because she seems to genuinely believe her justification for doing so it really undermines itself as a protest against state power.
I may have overreacted earlier but stuff like this incenses me. There are criminals out there who have got off more lightly. People who have ruined the lives of others.
The tories used to stand up for people like this. Now? nobody does.
I think you'll find the Tories used to be the "law and order" party.
No party that employed Cummings or Patel can be considered to be in favour of law and order.
The Tory party hasn't employed either of them.
Beyond the technicality though Cummings is/was clearly a loose cannon. Patel, despite her clear personal failings, is perhaps a decent Home Secretary.
A short Asian woman is a clear change from the past. Theresa May was a, (tall) rather intimidating, white, Anglo-Saxon, woman.
Patel will clearly be (mostly) judged on how she does her job. I think she's doing quite well, and I think she'll improve. I somewhat vaguely think she may be next PM, but I'm very sure she's doing great things for our perceptions as to prejudices with every minute that she serves.
"I think she's doing quite well"
Aside from being short, female and Asian, which really doesn't add weight to one side of the scales or another, what has she done since becoming Home Secretary? You can skip the bullying part and the not being fired for the bullying, I'm well versed in that.
Mainly stayed in the job.
Home Secretary is a post that has trashed many careers. Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think.
Much less so since Justice was spun off thirteen years ago. There have been six Home Secretaries in that time of whom only one has lasted less than a year and only one (Amber Rudd) has had to resign over failings within the department. Three have - unusually - gone on to a more senior position (two to Treasury briefs and one to No. 10).
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
More specifically: remaining in orbiut - but then that is a perpetual fall in a sense. [sorry, ignore, I misread]
It's rather unusual in a SF film in not dating that much visually, though the spacecraft is much too tidy by modern standards (admittedly that is not too difficult by comparison with the ISS).
Doesn't that depend on (a) who the most likely to spread the virus are? (Are they bar staff or doctors?) And (b) what are the relative numbers?
FWIW, I think it would be massively more useful to get doctors, nurses and care home staff vaccinated first, as a single one of those can knock off twenty oldies and spread it around their friends and family.
Yes, as an oldie I must say I agree. I can sit at home working and translating and posting on PB till the cows come home - I last saw another human about 10 days ago, apart from one Sainsbury delivery, and am definitely not infecting anyone. Health and care staff don't have that option. Why are we even considering not doing them first?
If "Neither" is an option why isn't "Both"? And why isn't "Those of the elderly/vulnerable who volunteer for it" in the mix, so as to skip oldies like you but cater for those who don't get on with lockdown as well as you do?
Yougov need to employ me as a questions editor.
Yes, I'd hope it would spread out to that group quickly (and I agree with you that polls tend to divide us unhelpfully into two camps), though I suppose that logistically it's easiest to do all of one group and then move on. Philip says it's been decided that health/care workers will be done first - is that right? I saw the various groups identified in the Government announcement, but thought it said that priorities had not yet been decided?
older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers all those 75 years of age and over all those 70 years of age and over all those 65 years of age and over high-risk adults under 65 years of age moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age all those 60 years of age and over all those 55 years of age and over all those 50 years of age and over rest of the population (priority to be determined)
NHS front line staff Pharmacists Care workers Front line school and university workers Dentists
Then go onto the rest of the list of old people etc...
All of these people are in the front line and are most likely to get and spread the virus. Our vaccine deployment starting with old people and not NHS staff makes absolutely no sense, the government are letting "must save all lives at any cost" dictate this policy but risking a much longer term cost of having a higher R.
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
Electorally, he’s a loser, having lost the presidency after just four years of his party in power and lost the popular vote twice in succession.
Has any other president achieved that unenviable feat? @HYUFD
Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and 1892
By today's standards, I'd say Buchanan was much worse, failing to stop the United States' slide into civil war. Also Andrew Jackson, who was an unapologetic and active advocate of ethnic cleansing and genocide.
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
Electorally, he’s a loser, having lost the presidency after just four years of his party in power and lost the popular vote twice in succession.
Has any other president achieved that unenviable feat? @HYUFD
Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and 1892
By today's standards, I'd say Buchanan was much worse, failing to stop the United States' slide into civil war. Also Andrew Jackson, who was an unapologetic and active advocate of ethnic cleansing and genocide.
He didn’t run for re-election. The largest part of the Democrats put up his Veep (Breckinridge) instead.
NHS front line staff Pharmacists Care workers Front line school and university workers Dentists
Then go onto the rest of the list of old people etc...
All of these people are in the front line and are most likely to get and spread the virus. Our vaccine deployment starting with old people and not NHS staff makes absolutely no sense, the government are letting "must save all lives at any cost" dictate this policy but risking a much longer term cost of having a higher R.
My fear is there will be a "VIP" of vaccination. That includes, I imagine, the Queen and Prince Philip as well as presumably Charles and Camilla. I can live with that but I wouldn't like to see celebrities and politicians vaccinated before care workers and NHS workers - the notion money or celebrity moves you up the pecking order is reprehensible.
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
Watching the Biden picks’ speeches on CNN. Patriotic, diplomatic, moderate. Suddenly it feels real. Like the end of an unlamented era.
I'm already looking forward to the PBS profile of the Donald Trump presidency. They do one for each president and always manage to imbue it with much gravitas. It will not be easy to do that with Trump.
I'm waiting for the Ken Burns documentary series on Trump.
There are a number of perfectly serious attempts to rank Presidents in order of merit, e.g.,
Electorally, he’s a loser, having lost the presidency after just four years of his party in power and lost the popular vote twice in succession.
Has any other president achieved that unenviable feat? @HYUFD
Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and 1892
By today's standards, I'd say Buchanan was much worse, failing to stop the United States' slide into civil war. Also Andrew Jackson, who was an unapologetic and active advocate of ethnic cleansing and genocide.
He didn’t run for re-election. The largest part of the Democrats put up his Veep (Breckinridge) instead.
More should try that. Ok they can find plenty to do out of office and they're probably sick of the Senate, but relatively young people can be president and it need not be an end to formal office.
NHS front line staff Pharmacists Care workers Front line school and university workers Dentists
Then go onto the rest of the list of old people etc...
All of these people are in the front line and are most likely to get and spread the virus. Our vaccine deployment starting with old people and not NHS staff makes absolutely no sense, the government are letting "must save all lives at any cost" dictate this policy but risking a much longer term cost of having a higher R.
My fear is there will be a "VIP" of vaccination. That includes, I imagine, the Queen and Prince Philip as well as presumably Charles and Camilla. I can live with that but I wouldn't like to see celebrities and politicians vaccinated before care workers and NHS workers - the notion money or celebrity moves you up the pecking order is reprehensible.
MPs should be VIPs, but I imagine would be petrified of listing themselves as such.
I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.
The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
Like a "nut" is very apt.
Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....
The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.
Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.
The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.
Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.
America? One party state now.
I doubt it @contrarian, I think, if the States is going to be one party, it will be the Republicans in charge, really for several reasons:
1. Trump has, in effect, emasculated the whole Romney / McCain types in the GOP. Beyond the Trumpers, there are plenty who are unhappy with the likes of The Lincoln Project and even more who recognise that the coalition he built has real electoral legs. The end result is the Republican party is far more united than the Democrats. Biden's picks so far are centrist. While the Left does not have that many Congressional seats, it has provided a lot of the power on the ground in terms of voter activation.
2. The Democrats face significant secular problems regarding the Hispanic block, which is not just limited to Florida or southern Texas. There is a big fight brewing in California at the moment over Harris' appointment with both the Black and the Hispanic caucuses demanding their candidate be selected. If it is a Black candidate is selected, expect the Hispanic caucus to be upset. Note also immigration reform / DACA is not the slam dunk for the Democrats it was assumed;
3. Less commented on has been the 18% of Black men who (apparently) voted for Trump. Given older Black voters were unlikely to switch because of historical resonance / souls to the polls etc etc, that probably means a decent chunk of younger Black men went for Trump.
4. Higher Education enrolment is declining (mid single digits probably this year) and has been declining for a few years with stagnation before that. Given education is a defining feature of likely vote intention, that growth engine is less powerful than it was;
5. The Republicans kept state legislatures, which mean they have a big advantage going into 2022 Congressional elections. Down party election results also generally favoured them as well. That gives a big advantage.
6. Many Republicans generally believe the silver lining around the fraud claims is that procedures will be tightened for the next elections. The complaints re mail-in ballots in 2020 largely mirror those in California in 2018 when the Republicans lost a number of House seats where they had comfortable majorities on the night which were then whittled away by mail in ballots. There is a view the focus from 2018 may have acted as a deterrent for 2020. Worth noting, of the 10 seats the Republicans have picked up so far, 3 have been in California, with a fourth one possible.
I`ve been laying Trump - big - well before Covid was heard of. I was confident that Trump was toast. However, the dust having settled, I admit that I was wrong. Trump would have won if it wasn`t for Covid. My bets have come in but I was lucky.
The decisive factor was the increased use of postal voting due to Covid. I`m not for a moment suggesting fraud, just that postal voting increased the turnout and benefited the Dems deferentially. (Plus, maybe, a higher proportion of Trump voters died from Covid.)
What about future elections? It all depends on postal voting going back to previous rules. If 2020 was a one-off, and the methodology of voting returns to normal, then I expect the Republicans to bounce back next time assuming that have a half-sharp candidate. Especially if Biden become beholden to any sort of BLM or woke agenda from that wing of his party.
I hate to say it but Trump was unlucky.
Not a theory I want to accept - and I don't - but it is definitely possible. It was closer than I thought it'd be so would he have won without Covid? Maybe. Thankfully we'll never know. I don't want to think about it too much tbh. Be like dwelling on that lorry that nearly ploughed into me on the M25 that time. Technical objection though. I would not say unlucky. I'd more say that if he somehow got through his 4 years without a big, high viz crisis coming along to expose him, that would have made him a very fortunate orange-hued wannabe fascist indeed.
Thanks for responding to my post. I thought it would produce a larger response TBH. I think you are clutching at straws though.
I`ve looked back and my first lays of Trump were 22 January. Then I doubled down early Feb - all before Covid - then doubled down a few more times post-Covid. And I backed Biden and Dems on top. Overall my biggest ever exposure by a mile.
They would all have lost if it wasn`t for Covid. I don`t doubt it. Not for a second.
How close was it? It would have only taken a few thousand to have turned, say, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Or Georgia and Pennsylvania. I don`t mean few thousand more Trump votes. I mean a few thousand less Biden votes. What proportion of 2016 turnout was postal? What proportion of turnout in 2020 was postal? I don`t know these figures - but I don`t need to check. He`d have won tidily.
Dodged a bullet; makes me feel sick thinking about it.
We came very close to a 269-269 tie with Biden only picking up PA, MI and NE-2 from 2016
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
Was never obvious on screen.
No, apart from the military emblems on the craft - IIRC?
Perhaps the then rather shockiung use of the Blue Danube waltz for the orbiting nukes also attracted the attention.
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
Was never obvious on screen.
Yes, it is clear from Clarke's novelization, and if you get a sufficiently hi-res digital version of the film on your PC, you can see the models carry military markings
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
Was never obvious on screen.
Nope - it was in the script and in interviews Kubrick did, IIRC.
People from Lancashire are bloody weird. Must have some Welsh blood in them.
A ‘SORDID’ father-of-two who would creep into a poultry farm at night to have sex with chickens used to apologise to the animals afterwards.
Shane Waters, who has previously been convicted of having sex with a horse and a donkey, admitted in his police interview that he could not control his ‘urges’ when it came to sexual intercourse with animals.
Burnley Crown Court also heard that the 40-year-old admitted to having sex with his own dog, a Great Dane, despite the fact she would bite him while he was doing so.
I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.
The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
Like a "nut" is very apt.
Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....
The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.
Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.
The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.
Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.
America? One party state now.
I doubt it @contrarian, I think, if the States is going to be one party, it will be the Republicans in charge, really for several reasons:
1. Trump has, in effect, emasculated the whole Romney / McCain types in the GOP. Beyond the Trumpers, there are plenty who are unhappy with the likes of The Lincoln Project and even more who recognise that the coalition he built has real electoral legs. The end result is the Republican party is far more united than the Democrats. Biden's picks so far are centrist. While the Left does not have that many Congressional seats, it has provided a lot of the power on the ground in terms of voter activation.
2. The Democrats face significant secular problems regarding the Hispanic block, which is not just limited to Florida or southern Texas. There is a big fight brewing in California at the moment over Harris' appointment with both the Black and the Hispanic caucuses demanding their candidate be selected. If it is a Black candidate is selected, expect the Hispanic caucus to be upset. Note also immigration reform / DACA is not the slam dunk for the Democrats it was assumed;
3. Less commented on has been the 18% of Black men who (apparently) voted for Trump. Given older Black voters were unlikely to switch because of historical resonance / souls to the polls etc etc, that probably means a decent chunk of younger Black men went for Trump.
4. Higher Education enrolment is declining (mid single digits probably this year) and has been declining for a few years with stagnation before that. Given education is a defining feature of likely vote intention, that growth engine is less powerful than it was;
5. The Republicans kept state legislatures, which mean they have a big advantage going into 2022 Congressional elections. Down party election results also generally favoured them as well. That gives a big advantage.
6. Many Republicans generally believe the silver lining around the fraud claims is that procedures will be tightened for the next elections. The complaints re mail-in ballots in 2020 largely mirror those in California in 2018 when the Republicans lost a number of House seats where they had comfortable majorities on the night which were then whittled away by mail in ballots. There is a view the focus from 2018 may have acted as a deterrent for 2020. Worth noting, of the 10 seats the Republicans have picked up so far, 3 have been in California, with a fourth one possible.
I`ve been laying Trump - big - well before Covid was heard of. I was confident that Trump was toast. However, the dust having settled, I admit that I was wrong. Trump would have won if it wasn`t for Covid. My bets have come in but I was lucky.
The decisive factor was the increased use of postal voting due to Covid. I`m not for a moment suggesting fraud, just that postal voting increased the turnout and benefited the Dems deferentially. (Plus, maybe, a higher proportion of Trump voters died from Covid.)
What about future elections? It all depends on postal voting going back to previous rules. If 2020 was a one-off, and the methodology of voting returns to normal, then I expect the Republicans to bounce back next time assuming that have a half-sharp candidate. Especially if Biden become beholden to any sort of BLM or woke agenda from that wing of his party.
I hate to say it but Trump was unlucky.
Not a theory I want to accept - and I don't - but it is definitely possible. It was closer than I thought it'd be so would he have won without Covid? Maybe. Thankfully we'll never know. I don't want to think about it too much tbh. Be like dwelling on that lorry that nearly ploughed into me on the M25 that time. Technical objection though. I would not say unlucky. I'd more say that if he somehow got through his 4 years without a big, high viz crisis coming along to expose him, that would have made him a very fortunate orange-hued wannabe fascist indeed.
Thanks for responding to my post. I thought it would produce a larger response TBH. I think you are clutching at straws though.
I`ve looked back and my first lays of Trump were 22 January. Then I doubled down early Feb - all before Covid - then doubled down a few more times post-Covid. And I backed Biden and Dems on top. Overall my biggest ever exposure by a mile.
They would all have lost if it wasn`t for Covid. I don`t doubt it. Not for a second.
How close was it? It would have only taken a few thousand to have turned, say, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Or Georgia and Pennsylvania. I don`t mean few thousand more Trump votes. I mean a few thousand less Biden votes. What proportion of 2016 turnout was postal? What proportion of turnout in 2020 was postal? I don`t know these figures - but I don`t need to check. He`d have won tidily.
Dodged a bullet; makes me feel sick thinking about it.
Yes there were 5 founder members of TrumpToast and you and I were of that select band. Perhaps we were more lucky than astute. I'm not going that far - he was hated by so many - but I will allow the possibility. My bets were big too - many thousands of pounds - yet when it looked like it might be going wrong I gave that aspect very little thought. It was dwarfed by the potential political angst. I have NEVER felt so strongly about the outcome of an election. Not the EU Ref. Not any British GE. Never.
NHS front line staff Pharmacists Care workers Front line school and university workers Dentists
Then go onto the rest of the list of old people etc...
All of these people are in the front line and are most likely to get and spread the virus. Our vaccine deployment starting with old people and not NHS staff makes absolutely no sense, the government are letting "must save all lives at any cost" dictate this policy but risking a much longer term cost of having a higher R.
My fear is there will be a "VIP" of vaccination. That includes, I imagine, the Queen and Prince Philip as well as presumably Charles and Camilla. I can live with that but I wouldn't like to see celebrities and politicians vaccinated before care workers and NHS workers - the notion money or celebrity moves you up the pecking order is reprehensible.
I think most of those people will get grey market private supplies of the Moderna vaccine. A guy I know at a movie studio is involved with purchasing enough vaccine supply from wherever they can to get the whole backlot vaccinated and resume full production for movies and TV shows. I don't think they will wait for the NHS vaccine.
older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers all those 75 years of age and over all those 70 years of age and over all those 65 years of age and over high-risk adults under 65 years of age moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age all those 60 years of age and over all those 55 years of age and over all those 50 years of age and over rest of the population (priority to be determined)
Thanks, yes - I remember (priority to be determined) as a separate line meaning that the sequencing was not yet decided. Looks reasonable.
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
More specifically: remaining in orbiut - but then that is a perpetual fall in a sense. [sorry, ignore, I misread]
It's rather unusual in a SF film in not dating that much visually, though the spacecraft is much too tidy by modern standards (admittedly that is not too difficult by comparison with the ISS).
I particularly liked the video phone call near the start. Back in the day we wondered how much it cost. No-one thought it would be free.
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
Was never obvious on screen.
Nope - it was in the script and in interviews Kubrick did, IIRC.
People from Lancashire are bloody weird. Must have some Welsh blood in them.
A ‘SORDID’ father-of-two who would creep into a poultry farm at night to have sex with chickens used to apologise to the animals afterwards.
Shane Waters, who has previously been convicted of having sex with a horse and a donkey, admitted in his police interview that he could not control his ‘urges’ when it came to sexual intercourse with animals.
Burnley Crown Court also heard that the 40-year-old admitted to having sex with his own dog, a Great Dane, despite the fact she would bite him while he was doing so.
People from Lancashire are bloody weird. Must have some Welsh blood in them.
A ‘SORDID’ father-of-two who would creep into a poultry farm at night to have sex with chickens used to apologise to the animals afterwards.
Shane Waters, who has previously been convicted of having sex with a horse and a donkey, admitted in his police interview that he could not control his ‘urges’ when it came to sexual intercourse with animals.
Burnley Crown Court also heard that the 40-year-old admitted to having sex with his own dog, a Great Dane, despite the fact she would bite him while he was doing so.
Another way of looking at the “Trump was unlucky” thing.
He had a massive advantage as a giveaway populist with an enabling Trumptonite senate, and blew everything by deliberately being a) a divisive moron and b) a covid denialist.
Rather than unlucky, he had everything going for him, and was master of his own downfall.
Which is a joy because Mr Meeks earwormed me this morning with some Europop that I had repressed.
The bone being thrown into the air and coming down as a spaceship was a cinematic transition device that Kubrick took from Powell and Pressburger’s ‘A Canterbury Tale’.
The bone thrown into the air etc was supposed to be coming down as an orbiting nuclear weapon.
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
Was never obvious on screen.
Nope - it was in the script and in interviews Kubrick did, IIRC.
People from Lancashire are bloody weird. Must have some Welsh blood in them.
A ‘SORDID’ father-of-two who would creep into a poultry farm at night to have sex with chickens used to apologise to the animals afterwards.
Shane Waters, who has previously been convicted of having sex with a horse and a donkey, admitted in his police interview that he could not control his ‘urges’ when it came to sexual intercourse with animals.
Burnley Crown Court also heard that the 40-year-old admitted to having sex with his own dog, a Great Dane, despite the fact she would bite him while he was doing so.
People from Lancashire are bloody weird. Must have some Welsh blood in them.
A ‘SORDID’ father-of-two who would creep into a poultry farm at night to have sex with chickens used to apologise to the animals afterwards.
Shane Waters, who has previously been convicted of having sex with a horse and a donkey, admitted in his police interview that he could not control his ‘urges’ when it came to sexual intercourse with animals.
Burnley Crown Court also heard that the 40-year-old admitted to having sex with his own dog, a Great Dane, despite the fact she would bite him while he was doing so.
People from Lancashire are bloody weird. Must have some Welsh blood in them.
A ‘SORDID’ father-of-two who would creep into a poultry farm at night to have sex with chickens used to apologise to the animals afterwards.
Shane Waters, who has previously been convicted of having sex with a horse and a donkey, admitted in his police interview that he could not control his ‘urges’ when it came to sexual intercourse with animals.
Burnley Crown Court also heard that the 40-year-old admitted to having sex with his own dog, a Great Dane, despite the fact she would bite him while he was doing so.
I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.
The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
Like a "nut" is very apt.
Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....
The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.
Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.
The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.
Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.
America? One party state now.
I doubt it @contrarian, I think, if the States is going to be one party, it will be the Republicans in charge, really for several reasons:
1. Trump has, in effect, emasculated the whole Romney / McCain types in the GOP. Beyond the Trumpers, there are plenty who are unhappy with the likes of The Lincoln Project and even more who recognise that the coalition he built has real electoral legs. The end result is the Republican party is far more united than the Democrats. Biden's picks so far are centrist. While the Left does not have that many Congressional seats, it has provided a lot of the power on the ground in terms of voter activation.
2. The Democrats face significant secular problems regarding the Hispanic block, which is not just limited to Florida or southern Texas. There is a big fight brewing in California at the moment over Harris' appointment with both the Black and the Hispanic caucuses demanding their candidate be selected. If it is a Black candidate is selected, expect the Hispanic caucus to be upset. Note also immigration reform / DACA is not the slam dunk for the Democrats it was assumed;
3. Less commented on has been the 18% of Black men who (apparently) voted for Trump. Given older Black voters were unlikely to switch because of historical resonance / souls to the polls etc etc, that probably means a decent chunk of younger Black men went for Trump.
4. Higher Education enrolment is declining (mid single digits probably this year) and has been declining for a few years with stagnation before that. Given education is a defining feature of likely vote intention, that growth engine is less powerful than it was;
5. The Republicans kept state legislatures, which mean they have a big advantage going into 2022 Congressional elections. Down party election results also generally favoured them as well. That gives a big advantage.
6. Many Republicans generally believe the silver lining around the fraud claims is that procedures will be tightened for the next elections. The complaints re mail-in ballots in 2020 largely mirror those in California in 2018 when the Republicans lost a number of House seats where they had comfortable majorities on the night which were then whittled away by mail in ballots. There is a view the focus from 2018 may have acted as a deterrent for 2020. Worth noting, of the 10 seats the Republicans have picked up so far, 3 have been in California, with a fourth one possible.
I`ve been laying Trump - big - well before Covid was heard of. I was confident that Trump was toast. However, the dust having settled, I admit that I was wrong. Trump would have won if it wasn`t for Covid. My bets have come in but I was lucky.
The decisive factor was the increased use of postal voting due to Covid. I`m not for a moment suggesting fraud, just that postal voting increased the turnout and benefited the Dems deferentially. (Plus, maybe, a higher proportion of Trump voters died from Covid.)
What about future elections? It all depends on postal voting going back to previous rules. If 2020 was a one-off, and the methodology of voting returns to normal, then I expect the Republicans to bounce back next time assuming that have a half-sharp candidate. Especially if Biden become beholden to any sort of BLM or woke agenda from that wing of his party.
I hate to say it but Trump was unlucky.
Not a theory I want to accept - and I don't - but it is definitely possible. It was closer than I thought it'd be so would he have won without Covid? Maybe. Thankfully we'll never know. I don't want to think about it too much tbh. Be like dwelling on that lorry that nearly ploughed into me on the M25 that time. Technical objection though. I would not say unlucky. I'd more say that if he somehow got through his 4 years without a big, high viz crisis coming along to expose him, that would have made him a very fortunate orange-hued wannabe fascist indeed.
Thanks for responding to my post. I thought it would produce a larger response TBH. I think you are clutching at straws though.
I`ve looked back and my first lays of Trump were 22 January. Then I doubled down early Feb - all before Covid - then doubled down a few more times post-Covid. And I backed Biden and Dems on top. Overall my biggest ever exposure by a mile.
They would all have lost if it wasn`t for Covid. I don`t doubt it. Not for a second.
How close was it? It would have only taken a few thousand to have turned, say, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Or Georgia and Pennsylvania. I don`t mean few thousand more Trump votes. I mean a few thousand less Biden votes. What proportion of 2016 turnout was postal? What proportion of turnout in 2020 was postal? I don`t know these figures - but I don`t need to check. He`d have won tidily.
Dodged a bullet; makes me feel sick thinking about it.
Yes there were 5 founder members of TrumpToast and you and I were of that select band. Perhaps we were more lucky than astute. I'm not going that far - he was hated by so many - but I will allow the possibility. My bets were big too - many thousands of pounds - yet when it looked like it might be going wrong I gave that aspect very little thought. It was dwarfed by the potential political angst. I have NEVER felt so strongly about the outcome of an election. Not the EU Ref. Not any British GE. Never.
Phew.
There were times when I felt quite sick at what was happening, and it had nothing to do with betting losses. (I bailed out when I saw how Florida was going and settled for a small loss.)
Betfair reportedly close to paying out on the result of the Battle of Gettysburg.
I bet they waited for four months until Lincoln's address at Gettysburg before paying out.
That's when the Army Of The Potomac was officially projected to have won.
Have they paid out for who won at Cannae yet?
Any specific relevance other than antiquity? In which case the Battle of Megiddo 1457 BC seems to be the benchmark. And that took seven months to get a clear result, with Thutmose III probably priced around 1.02 most of that time.
Betfair reportedly close to paying out on the result of the Battle of Gettysburg.
I bet they waited for four months until Lincoln's address at Gettysburg before paying out.
That's when the Army Of The Potomac was officially projected to have won.
Have they paid out for who won at Cannae yet?
Any specific relevance other than antiquity? In which case the Battle of Megiddo 1457 BC seems to be the benchmark. And that took seven months to get a clear result, with Thutmose III probably priced around 1.02 most of that time.
The Wars of the Roses would actually blow your mind - it took 35 years to get a clear result.
Betfair reportedly close to paying out on the result of the Battle of Gettysburg.
I bet they waited for four months until Lincoln's address at Gettysburg before paying out.
That's when the Army Of The Potomac was officially projected to have won.
Have they paid out for who won at Cannae yet?
Any specific relevance other than antiquity? In which case the Battle of Megiddo 1457 BC seems to be the benchmark. And that took seven months to get a clear result, with Thutmose III probably priced around 1.02 most of that time.
I've just checked - the book on Jebel Sahaba is still open. Apparently, no clear winner....
NHS front line staff Pharmacists Care workers Front line school and university workers Dentists
Then go onto the rest of the list of old people etc...
All of these people are in the front line and are most likely to get and spread the virus. Our vaccine deployment starting with old people and not NHS staff makes absolutely no sense, the government are letting "must save all lives at any cost" dictate this policy but risking a much longer term cost of having a higher R.
My fear is there will be a "VIP" of vaccination. That includes, I imagine, the Queen and Prince Philip as well as presumably Charles and Camilla. I can live with that but I wouldn't like to see celebrities and politicians vaccinated before care workers and NHS workers - the notion money or celebrity moves you up the pecking order is reprehensible.
The more criteria you add the more difficult it will be to get to the right people. Age is the easiest thing for the NHS to know about, and the simplest to organise by.
By the time you've worked out who is a 'front line school worker' you could have vaccinated 100k people. It isn't worth the effort trying to work it out.
Besides, as soon as you make a list like that, you generate questions. Do care workers include the hidden army caring for their own relatives? Should bus drivers be on that list because they were badly affected in the first wave? What about supermarket workers?
Just get on with it by age, and do it as fast as possible. Include NHS workers, especially those actually doing the vaccination. They aren't too difficult, because they can organise it amongst themselves.
As for the royals, I should think Prince Philip will be in the top few thousand by age anyway. And Charlie has already had the lurgy.
Betfair reportedly close to paying out on the result of the Battle of Gettysburg.
I bet they waited for four months until Lincoln's address at Gettysburg before paying out.
That's when the Army Of The Potomac was officially projected to have won.
Have they paid out for who won at Cannae yet?
Any specific relevance other than antiquity? In which case the Battle of Megiddo 1457 BC seems to be the benchmark. And that took seven months to get a clear result, with Thutmose III probably priced around 1.02 most of that time.
The Wars of the Roses would actually blow your mind - it took 35 years to get a clear result.
And don't get me started on the Hundred Years' War, nor upset TSE by telling him who won.
I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.
The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
Like a "nut" is very apt.
Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....
The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.
Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.
The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.
Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.
America? One party state now.
I doubt it @contrarian, I think, if the States is going to be one party, it will be the Republicans in charge, really for several reasons:
1. Trump has, in effect, emasculated the whole Romney / McCain types in the GOP. Beyond the Trumpers, there are plenty who are unhappy with the likes of The Lincoln Project and even more who recognise that the coalition he built has real electoral legs. The end result is the Republican party is far more united than the Democrats. Biden's picks so far are centrist. While the Left does not have that many Congressional seats, it has provided a lot of the power on the ground in terms of voter activation.
2. The Democrats face significant secular problems regarding the Hispanic block, which is not just limited to Florida or southern Texas. There is a big fight brewing in California at the moment over Harris' appointment with both the Black and the Hispanic caucuses demanding their candidate be selected. If it is a Black candidate is selected, expect the Hispanic caucus to be upset. Note also immigration reform / DACA is not the slam dunk for the Democrats it was assumed;
3. Less commented on has been the 18% of Black men who (apparently) voted for Trump. Given older Black voters were unlikely to switch because of historical resonance / souls to the polls etc etc, that probably means a decent chunk of younger Black men went for Trump.
4. Higher Education enrolment is declining (mid single digits probably this year) and has been declining for a few years with stagnation before that. Given education is a defining feature of likely vote intention, that growth engine is less powerful than it was;
5. The Republicans kept state legislatures, which mean they have a big advantage going into 2022 Congressional elections. Down party election results also generally favoured them as well. That gives a big advantage.
6. Many Republicans generally believe the silver lining around the fraud claims is that procedures will be tightened for the next elections. The complaints re mail-in ballots in 2020 largely mirror those in California in 2018 when the Republicans lost a number of House seats where they had comfortable majorities on the night which were then whittled away by mail in ballots. There is a view the focus from 2018 may have acted as a deterrent for 2020. Worth noting, of the 10 seats the Republicans have picked up so far, 3 have been in California, with a fourth one possible.
I`ve been laying Trump - big - well before Covid was heard of. I was confident that Trump was toast. However, the dust having settled, I admit that I was wrong. Trump would have won if it wasn`t for Covid. My bets have come in but I was lucky.
The decisive factor was the increased use of postal voting due to Covid. I`m not for a moment suggesting fraud, just that postal voting increased the turnout and benefited the Dems deferentially. (Plus, maybe, a higher proportion of Trump voters died from Covid.)
What about future elections? It all depends on postal voting going back to previous rules. If 2020 was a one-off, and the methodology of voting returns to normal, then I expect the Republicans to bounce back next time assuming that have a half-sharp candidate. Especially if Biden become beholden to any sort of BLM or woke agenda from that wing of his party.
I hate to say it but Trump was unlucky.
Not a theory I want to accept - and I don't - but it is definitely possible. It was closer than I thought it'd be so would he have won without Covid? Maybe. Thankfully we'll never know. I don't want to think about it too much tbh. Be like dwelling on that lorry that nearly ploughed into me on the M25 that time. Technical objection though. I would not say unlucky. I'd more say that if he somehow got through his 4 years without a big, high viz crisis coming along to expose him, that would have made him a very fortunate orange-hued wannabe fascist indeed.
Thanks for responding to my post. I thought it would produce a larger response TBH. I think you are clutching at straws though.
I`ve looked back and my first lays of Trump were 22 January. Then I doubled down early Feb - all before Covid - then doubled down a few more times post-Covid. And I backed Biden and Dems on top. Overall my biggest ever exposure by a mile.
They would all have lost if it wasn`t for Covid. I don`t doubt it. Not for a second.
How close was it? It would have only taken a few thousand to have turned, say, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Or Georgia and Pennsylvania. I don`t mean few thousand more Trump votes. I mean a few thousand less Biden votes. What proportion of 2016 turnout was postal? What proportion of turnout in 2020 was postal? I don`t know these figures - but I don`t need to check. He`d have won tidily.
Dodged a bullet; makes me feel sick thinking about it.
Yes there were 5 founder members of TrumpToast and you and I were of that select band. Perhaps we were more lucky than astute. I'm not going that far - he was hated by so many - but I will allow the possibility. My bets were big too - many thousands of pounds - yet when it looked like it might be going wrong I gave that aspect very little thought. It was dwarfed by the potential political angst. I have NEVER felt so strongly about the outcome of an election. Not the EU Ref. Not any British GE. Never.
Phew.
Did you bail out at all on election night? I chopped about a third of my bets in at 2.30 am. Kicking myself now. I saw Florida coming in and became convinced that Trump would do it and panicked. That little exercise cost me over £2500. If I`d have fallen asleep on the sofa like I normally do I`d have ended up winning a lot more than I did.
That`s gambling for you: sick when you lose and sick when you win because you should have had more on
Betfair reportedly close to paying out on the result of the Battle of Gettysburg.
I bet they waited for four months until Lincoln's address at Gettysburg before paying out.
That's when the Army Of The Potomac was officially projected to have won.
Have they paid out for who won at Cannae yet?
Any specific relevance other than antiquity? In which case the Battle of Megiddo 1457 BC seems to be the benchmark. And that took seven months to get a clear result, with Thutmose III probably priced around 1.02 most of that time.
The Wars of the Roses would actually blow your mind - it took 35 years to get a clear result.
I wonder what the bookies would have made of the The Hundred Years' War?
I reckon the Maid of Orléans would have led to some markets being voided
NHS front line staff Pharmacists Care workers Front line school and university workers Dentists
Then go onto the rest of the list of old people etc...
All of these people are in the front line and are most likely to get and spread the virus. Our vaccine deployment starting with old people and not NHS staff makes absolutely no sense, the government are letting "must save all lives at any cost" dictate this policy but risking a much longer term cost of having a higher R.
My fear is there will be a "VIP" of vaccination. That includes, I imagine, the Queen and Prince Philip as well as presumably Charles and Camilla. I can live with that but I wouldn't like to see celebrities and politicians vaccinated before care workers and NHS workers - the notion money or celebrity moves you up the pecking order is reprehensible.
The more criteria you add the more difficult it will be to get to the right people. Age is the easiest thing for the NHS to know about, and the simplest to organise by.
By the time you've worked out who is a 'front line school worker' you could have vaccinated 100k people. It isn't worth the effort trying to work it out.
Besides, as soon as you make a list like that, you generate questions. Do care workers include the hidden army caring for their own relatives? Should bus drivers be on that list because they were badly affected in the first wave? What about supermarket workers?
Just get on with it by age, and do it as fast as possible. Include NHS workers, especially those actually doing the vaccination. They aren't too difficult, because they can organise it amongst themselves.
As for the royals, I should think Prince Philip will be in the top few thousand by age anyway. And Charlie has already had the lurgy.
I really don't mind, as long as I get mine before JackW.
Comments
That sums up the very nature of this uncaring and cruel British Government
I may be wrong. Happened to me back in the 80s you know,..
Aside from being short, female and Asian, which really doesn't add weight to one side of the scales or another, what has she done since becoming Home Secretary?
You can skip the bullying part and the not being fired for the bullying, I'm well versed in that.
Home Secretary is a post that has trashed many careers. Some slight evidence that she's got some support within the civil service too I think.
Well, they want to pick up their sleeper agent for debrief at the earliest possible moment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55064962
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1331293521484124160
But she's a List MSP so it's entirely up to the party to boot her out. Too little time and too difficult with the pox for by-elections - as I suspect she has calculated. Wonder what happens in May? Maybe Mr Galloway is on the line ...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1123920/us-presidents-historian-ranking/
Pretty sure where Donald is going to be ranked.
What sort of twisted logic led to that?
Will the PB Trumptonites follow?
'That is your Leader? Really?'
I`ve looked back and my first lays of Trump were 22 January. Then I doubled down early Feb - all before Covid - then doubled down a few more times post-Covid. And I backed Biden and Dems on top. Overall my biggest ever exposure by a mile.
They would all have lost if it wasn`t for Covid. I don`t doubt it. Not for a second.
How close was it? It would have only taken a few thousand to have turned, say, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Or Georgia and Pennsylvania. I don`t mean few thousand more Trump votes. I mean a few thousand less Biden votes. What proportion of 2016 turnout was postal? What proportion of turnout in 2020 was postal? I don`t know these figures - but I don`t need to check. He`d have won tidily.
Dodged a bullet; makes me feel sick thinking about it.
Some of the others, however, did no good at all but didn’t quite manage the ‘nothing very terrible’ bit.
Finally, someone to be spoken of in the same breath as Vespasian, Qin Shi Huang, King Alfred.
Electorally, he’s a loser, having lost the presidency after just four years of his party in power and lost the popular vote twice in succession.
Has any other president achieved that unenviable feat? @HYUFD
The whole humans-haven't-changed thing.
It's rather unusual in a SF film in not dating that much visually, though the spacecraft is much too tidy by modern standards (admittedly that is not too difficult by comparison with the ISS).
Order.....
older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
all those 75 years of age and over
all those 70 years of age and over
all those 65 years of age and over
high-risk adults under 65 years of age
moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
all those 60 years of age and over
all those 55 years of age and over
all those 50 years of age and over
rest of the population (priority to be determined)
NHS front line staff
Pharmacists
Care workers
Front line school and university workers
Dentists
Then go onto the rest of the list of old people etc...
All of these people are in the front line and are most likely to get and spread the virus. Our vaccine deployment starting with old people and not NHS staff makes absolutely no sense, the government are letting "must save all lives at any cost" dictate this policy but risking a much longer term cost of having a higher R.
That's when the Army Of The Potomac was officially projected to have won.
Perhaps the then rather shockiung use of the Blue Danube waltz for the orbiting nukes also attracted the attention.
A ‘SORDID’ father-of-two who would creep into a poultry farm at night to have sex with chickens used to apologise to the animals afterwards.
Shane Waters, who has previously been convicted of having sex with a horse and a donkey, admitted in his police interview that he could not control his ‘urges’ when it came to sexual intercourse with animals.
Burnley Crown Court also heard that the 40-year-old admitted to having sex with his own dog, a Great Dane, despite the fact she would bite him while he was doing so.
https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/18886830.dad-of-two-jailed-sex-chickens-accrington-farm/
Phew.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2012/07/07/the-2001-monolith-is-on-display-by-tower-bridge/
I used to live round the corner - was a fun thing to point out to friends visiting....
Paddy Power did an early payout for Carthage winning the Second Punic War.
He had a massive advantage as a giveaway populist with an enabling Trumptonite senate, and blew everything by deliberately being a) a divisive moron and b) a covid denialist.
Rather than unlucky, he had everything going for him, and was master of his own downfall.
I thought he’d win.
I was wrong.
What a joke.
By the time you've worked out who is a 'front line school worker' you could have vaccinated 100k people. It isn't worth the effort trying to work it out.
Besides, as soon as you make a list like that, you generate questions. Do care workers include the hidden army caring for their own relatives? Should bus drivers be on that list because they were badly affected in the first wave? What about supermarket workers?
Just get on with it by age, and do it as fast as possible. Include NHS workers, especially those actually doing the vaccination. They aren't too difficult, because they can organise it amongst themselves.
As for the royals, I should think Prince Philip will be in the top few thousand by age anyway. And Charlie has already had the lurgy.
That`s gambling for you: sick when you lose and sick when you win because you should have had more on
I reckon the Maid of Orléans would have led to some markets being voided