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Following the start of the non-concession transition some interesting Trump bets – politicalbetting.
Following the start of the non-concession transition some interesting Trump bets – politicalbetting.com
These are from the Smarkets betting exchange which I am now using a bit more.
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During plenary in the Senedd on Tuesday First Minister Mark Drakeford confirmed that 17 local authorities of 22 have seen rises in case rates in under-25s in the latest figures.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19336708
From the BBC a few minutes ago
'In May, a junior civil servant working with High-Street banks noticed dozens of claims for universal credit had been made asking for money to be paid into the same bank account.
Further investigation identified more than 100,000 fraudulent claims.
And officials admit they had confirmed thousands of people's identities to the gangs that had stolen them - and passed on their National Insurance numbers.'
The headline is 'Benefit scams worth £1bn foiled during lockdown', but of course the actual sum of which we've been defrauded must run into dozens of millions of £.
A grand jury has issued two indictments charging Apple's head of global security and several other individuals with bribery to obtain concealed weapon permits.
According to the Santa Clara County District Attorney's Office, Apple Chief Security Officer Thomas Moyer and insurance broker Harpreet Chadha were accused of offering bribes to Santa Clara Undersheriff Rick Sung and Captain James Jensen to receive concealed firearm (CCW) permits.
A two-year investigation by the DA's office found that Undersheriff Sung held up issuing CCW licenses until Moyer and Chadha "gave something of value." In one instance, Captain Jensen aided in the scheme.
"Undersheriff Sung and Captain Jensen treated CCW licenses as commodities and found willing buyers," said District Attorney Jeff Rosen. "Bribe seekers should be reported to the District Attorney's Office, not rewarded with compliance."
In the case of four separate firearm permits withheld from Apple employees, Undersheriff Sung and Captain Jensen reportedly managed to get Moyer to promise that Apple would donate 200 iPads, worth about $70,000, to the Sheriff's Office. Sung and Moyer scrapped the deal at the last minute when they learned that the District Attorney executed a search warrant seizing CCW records from the sheriff's office.
Undersheriff Sung also extracted from Chadha, the insurance broker, a "promise of $6,000 worth of luxury box seat tickets to a San Jose Sharks hockey game."
https://appleinsider.com/articles/20/11/23/apple-security-chief-thomas-moyer-indicted-in-concealed-firearm-permit-bribery-case
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/half-britons-think-second-lockdown-england-will-be-effective-reducing-spread-covid-19
Interesting Party splits...virtually no difference between Tory and Labour. Oldies think it works.
Has this ever happened before?
Not something that worries a nationalist. This is the sort of behaviour that makes me worry about the implications of Independence.
It will be turnips all round in Scotland then!
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1331255664753201155?s=20
Fine job by the Herald's Picture editor.....
Last 7 days per 100,000:
Wales 191.4
Scotland 135
Northern Ireland 175.4
England 230.3
Whole pandemic:
Wales 2,341.6
Scotland 1,648.8
Northern Ireland 2,647.9
England 2,353.6
From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYCVwPzPdJM
The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1331267907641282566?s=20
Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1331269768528191488?s=20
Just like the most of Europe.......
The big question is what will happen to case numbers once restrictions are eased at the beginning of the month. Given it's winter and we won't have the luxury of outdoor socialising to the extent we had in June, July and August it may be a fortnight before we start seeing case levels starting to rise again which will be in the week before Christmas which may then cause some anxiety in a Government which was publicly committed to allowing more social contact over the festive period.
The "price" of that may be another surge of cases in late December and early January which may well force another sustained lockdown through January just as the vaccination programme (and I have severe doubts about the current Government's capacity and competence on this) kicks in.
The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
Eminent statistician my arse.
Latest estimates of percentage of population who have had Covid from ONS antibody survey.
Scotland 7.1%
England 6.9%
Wales 4.1%
Northern Ireland 2.1%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/november2020#likelihood-of-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland
Mark Drakeford has handled the pandemic massively better than Boris Johnson, Labour landslide in next year's Senedd elections!
A VP has replaced a President on a number of occasions.
President resigning - well, Nixon.
The victim card seemed to be the only one in the Brexiteers deck. Would be sad to see Scotland head to the same dead-end of imagined victimhood.
Because right now that is not looking likely. Not likely at all. And next to impossible if he quits without a fight.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1331258647050153984
It's same kind of idiocy Extinction Rebellion advocated yesterday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55061543
It's a cultural and economic issue not helped by the attitude of some employers who think anyone that is sick is skiving and indeed I've heard many stories of individuals being sacked because they had the temerity not to turn up for work owing to sickness.
Since there are millions of people who are utterly dependent on their employment for the money to pay rent, buy food, look after their families, the prospect of losing your job if you are sick means they literally can't afford to be sick and if they are ill, they have to carry on.
Others get no sick pay - if they aren't working thy get no income. They may keep their work but they need the money to survive.
Finally, there's the cultural thing - if you aren't at the office people may think you aren't so important - the old "they can't manage without me" syndrome. That's more about management and how people work and that's a whole other can of worms.
But it isn't what is being argued about. It is disingenuous completely to call this a debate about state aid, that is not the issue. The whole "level playing field" concept is about controlling our laws and money - if we give a blank cheque to the EU to determine if something breaches the "level playing field" and they are the sole arbiters of it using their court then that would mean we do not control our laws and money except at their bidding. That is what makes this such a nebulous and fraught discussion that is occuring.
I've been told the figures are much worse than those publicised but I don't believe it. I do believe some have had the virus and suffered with it and recovered and never taken a test.
IIRC Spiegelhalter is German for mirror holder.
https://twitter.com/markets/status/1331272780235550726?s=19
However, hospital admissions are continuing to decline, pointing to fewer deaths baked in past that point. I'm going to guess that the period 20-23 November will, in retrospect, be the peak of deaths for the second wave, but it will take us as much as another week to see that clearly.
The fact that positivity is also down as well as cases is encouraging.
Basically: If infections are on Day D+0, hospitalisations tend to follow on Day D+10, and deaths on Day D+19.
Infections look to have been subsiding for a while, hospitalisations not quite as long, and we look to be between the hospitalisation peak and the deaths peak right now.
Based on my friends most of them aren't going to risk killing granny especially with a vaccine on the horizon.
Just watched this on CNN.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
speculum
in British English
(ˈspɛkjʊləm )
NOUN
Word forms: plural -la (-lə) or -lums
1. a mirror, esp one made of polished metal for use in a telescope, etc
Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.
The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.
Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.
America? One party state now.
We know a lot more than we did then though you wouldn't think so sometimes. Restricting social activity is having the desired effect in terms of cases and ultimately deaths though today's numbers are appalling.
This time next week the figures will be much lower again - we'll be champing at the bit to get back to the pub (that seems the case if you read PB). I suspect much of the country will be put into Tier 1 and we'll start back bingeing on the life we've missed and the case numbers will rise again just before Christmas.
Pence 12%
Trump Jr 8%
Morning Consult 2024 poll
Don't forget Trump supporters don't like to talk to pollsters particularly either. So his support amongst grassroots GOP is likely still higher.
Four years and long time springs to mind though.
I am feeling a bit rough today, not sure if it is coronachondria or not.
You are crude nationalist
He/She is a Trumpian Neo-Nazi Turnip
It's possible the Trump fan club will break from the GOP and run a third party candidate (perhaps the ex-President himself) in 2024. As happened with Theodore Roosevelt, that will hand the WH to the Democrats for another four years but the humiliation will end Trumpism and as happened with both the Labour and Conservatives here after long periods in opposition, the desire to win will overcome any petty ideological differences.
In 2028, the GOP will re-unite around a moderate conservative and likely win.
- faking testing positive
- faking symptoms
- faking symptoms so bad they require hospitalisation
- faking recovering from the fake systems as a result treatment
- faking dying of the fake illness
- faking evidence on autopsy of fake illness
At some point fake becomes the real thing, surely?
The problem with the case data is that it's dominated by the second wave, as there wasn't enough testing in the first one. Scotland reacted marginally more quickly to the seoncd one, so kept the numbers a bit lower there.
The deaths data suggests it's much of a muchness between England, Scotland and Wales overall, where NI is a bit lower due to not being hit quite as badly by the first wave:
Death per 100,000, whole pandemic:
Wales 102.4
Scotland 94
Northern Ireland 63.4
England 101.5