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Following the start of the non-concession transition some interesting Trump bets – politicalbetting.

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2020 in General
imageFollowing the start of the non-concession transition some interesting Trump bets – politicalbetting.com

These are from the Smarkets betting exchange which I am now using a bit more.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • E pluribus unum, just like Biden.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    Straight from oven gloves sales in Tescos banned to allowing boozy nights out in Cardiff...

    During plenary in the Senedd on Tuesday First Minister Mark Drakeford confirmed that 17 local authorities of 22 have seen rises in case rates in under-25s in the latest figures.

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19336708
  • Straight from oven gloves sales in Tescos banned to allowing boozy nights out in Cardiff...

    During plenary in the Senedd on Tuesday First Minister Mark Drakeford confirmed that 17 local authorities of 22 have seen rises in case rates in under-25s in the latest figures.

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-infections-deaths-wales-19336708

    Typical Welsh.
  • Tier 4
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Some interesting odds there. There is zero chance of Trump attending Biden's inauguration. And the only way he won't serve his full term is if he doesn't 'auto-pardon', but resigns so that Pence can do it for him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    O/t.... or is it.
    From the BBC a few minutes ago
    'In May, a junior civil servant working with High-Street banks noticed dozens of claims for universal credit had been made asking for money to be paid into the same bank account.
    Further investigation identified more than 100,000 fraudulent claims.
    And officials admit they had confirmed thousands of people's identities to the gangs that had stolen them - and passed on their National Insurance numbers.'

    The headline is 'Benefit scams worth £1bn foiled during lockdown', but of course the actual sum of which we've been defrauded must run into dozens of millions of £.
  • See if you tried and bribed someone with Android products they'd throw them back at you.

    A grand jury has issued two indictments charging Apple's head of global security and several other individuals with bribery to obtain concealed weapon permits.

    According to the Santa Clara County District Attorney's Office, Apple Chief Security Officer Thomas Moyer and insurance broker Harpreet Chadha were accused of offering bribes to Santa Clara Undersheriff Rick Sung and Captain James Jensen to receive concealed firearm (CCW) permits.

    A two-year investigation by the DA's office found that Undersheriff Sung held up issuing CCW licenses until Moyer and Chadha "gave something of value." In one instance, Captain Jensen aided in the scheme.

    "Undersheriff Sung and Captain Jensen treated CCW licenses as commodities and found willing buyers," said District Attorney Jeff Rosen. "Bribe seekers should be reported to the District Attorney's Office, not rewarded with compliance."

    In the case of four separate firearm permits withheld from Apple employees, Undersheriff Sung and Captain Jensen reportedly managed to get Moyer to promise that Apple would donate 200 iPads, worth about $70,000, to the Sheriff's Office. Sung and Moyer scrapped the deal at the last minute when they learned that the District Attorney executed a search warrant seizing CCW records from the sheriff's office.

    Undersheriff Sung also extracted from Chadha, the insurance broker, a "promise of $6,000 worth of luxury box seat tickets to a San Jose Sharks hockey game."


    https://appleinsider.com/articles/20/11/23/apple-security-chief-thomas-moyer-indicted-in-concealed-firearm-permit-bribery-case
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited November 2020
    Half of population think lockdown effective.

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/half-britons-think-second-lockdown-england-will-be-effective-reducing-spread-covid-19

    Interesting Party splits...virtually no difference between Tory and Labour. Oldies think it works.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited November 2020
    You can see why Scotland has proportionally the highest number of people infected out of the four nations.
  • Some interesting odds there. There is zero chance of Trump attending Biden's inauguration. And the only way he won't serve his full term is if he doesn't 'auto-pardon', but resigns so that Pence can do it for him.

    If he does resign is Pence then '46' and a bigger place in the history books?
    Has this ever happened before?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2020
    FPT.
    Scott_xP said:
    It's impossible to be reminded too often the disregard for what most people would see as 'natural justice'

  • Some interesting odds there. There is zero chance of Trump attending Biden's inauguration. And the only way he won't serve his full term is if he doesn't 'auto-pardon', but resigns so that Pence can do it for him.

    If he does resign is Pence then '46' and a bigger place in the history books?
    Has this ever happened before?
    Only POTUS to have resigned is Richard Nixon.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Yet Boris can't even show up to the meeting!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited November 2020
    A consistent approach - even if it is one that says, "don't even think about it," - would be incredibly helpful to those of us with family on the other side of the border.

    Not something that worries a nationalist. This is the sort of behaviour that makes me worry about the implications of Independence.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Scott_xP said:
    Inter-generational mixing is a big problem for sure. Is Sturgeon having a problem with the precise definition of "generation"?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    Think you mean looking after Scotland's interests halfwit. Days of just kissing the feet of the turnips in Westminster is gone , they can F*** up England all they want but we will vote in people who look after our interests. Just doing her job.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    11299 new cases....only 9854 in England...that's basically 60% of what it was 7 days ago.
  • malcolmg said:

    Think you mean looking after Scotland's interests halfwit. Days of just kissing the feet of the turnips in Westminster is gone , they can F*** up England all they want but we will vote in people who look after our interests. Just doing her job.
    Does that mean you don't want England's money to prop you up anymore?

    It will be turnips all round in Scotland then!
  • Scott_xP said:
    Inter-generational mixing is a big problem for sure. Is Sturgeon having a problem with the precise definition of "generation"?
    Wouldn't be the first time, meanwhile....

    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1331255664753201155?s=20

    Fine job by the Herald's Picture editor.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848
    You could postulate that Brexit makes Sindy both an easier and a harder sell.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    A consistent approach - even if it is one that says, "don't even think about it," - would be incredibly helpful to those of us with family on the other side of the border.

    Not something that worries a nationalist. This is the sort of behaviour that makes me worry about the implications of Independence.
    LOL, you unionists are a joke. You can crap all over us and it is fine , but the Scottish government actually looking after Scotland's interests against halfwits in Westminster and you are whining and whinging about implications of independence but have no concerns about colonolialism and downtrodding of Scotland. Jog on whiner.
  • FPT
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the No Deal diehards refuse to even accept a Canada style FTA they can sod off to Farage as far as I am concerned and never come back!!

    Well said.

    But what if that (no deal) becomes Cons Party policy and/or is enacted. Where would that leave your relationship with the Party?
    I would still stay in the party and argue for a Deal, I am obviously not going to go off to Farage either way am I!
    You swallowed Brexit although you believed that the wellbeing of the UK was best served by staying in the EU. You now say that if the Party said it wanted no deal you would stay when you believe that it would be very bad for your country.

    So at what point would you think that the Party had moved too far from your beliefs, and was inflicting too much harm on the country you love, such that you would, in all good faith, no longer be able to remain a member of it?
    I believe he draws the line in recognising that Scots have a right to national self-determination like Cameron and Thatcher said. If the Tory leader won't send in jackboots to squash the rebellious Scots then that is his deal breaker.
    Preserving the Union at all costs is a pivotal part of being a Tory, backing a No Deal Brexit as opposed to simply respecting the Brexit vote is not, just another reason why you are not and never will be a Tory.

    2014 was a once in generation referendum and the Scots voted to stay in the UK and that should be respected
    Yebbut wanting to leave the EU is a pivotal part of being a Tory in today's party. Boris even made every would be MP swear as such.
    Respecting the Leave vote yes, the Tory manifesto also set out the Brexit deal with the EU they were aiming for, only Farage's party in 2019 was pushing No Deal
    Indeed. Reclaim laws and money being the first thing that the manifesto said.

    If the EU wants to control our laws and money and won't give us a deal without that control then it would betray the manifesto to sign up to that deal.
    Sod off to Farage then, good riddance and don't come back!!

    The Tory manifesto never made any promises on state aid
    I couldn't care less about state aid.

    I do care about laws and money which is what the manifesto said.
    State aid IS about laws and money.
    image
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    edited November 2020

    You can see why Scotland has proportionally the highest number of people infected out of the four nations.
    ?

    Last 7 days per 100,000:

    Wales 191.4
    Scotland 135
    Northern Ireland 175.4
    England 230.3

    Whole pandemic:

    Wales 2,341.6
    Scotland 1,648.8
    Northern Ireland 2,647.9
    England 2,353.6

    From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
  • Mr. G, when was Scotland colonised?
  • Is this how Oxford found their 90% effective dosage?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYCVwPzPdJM
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.

    The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
  • I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!

    The case chart looks very promising. Admissions down, too.
  • Unless you're in Scotland, where it will be four, or two, anything but three.....

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1331267907641282566?s=20
  • Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the No Deal diehards refuse to even accept a Canada style FTA they can sod off to Farage as far as I am concerned and never come back!!

    Well said.

    But what if that (no deal) becomes Cons Party policy and/or is enacted. Where would that leave your relationship with the Party?
    I would still stay in the party and argue for a Deal, I am obviously not going to go off to Farage either way am I!
    You swallowed Brexit although you believed that the wellbeing of the UK was best served by staying in the EU. You now say that if the Party said it wanted no deal you would stay when you believe that it would be very bad for your country.

    So at what point would you think that the Party had moved too far from your beliefs, and was inflicting too much harm on the country you love, such that you would, in all good faith, no longer be able to remain a member of it?
    I believe he draws the line in recognising that Scots have a right to national self-determination like Cameron and Thatcher said. If the Tory leader won't send in jackboots to squash the rebellious Scots then that is his deal breaker.
    Preserving the Union at all costs is a pivotal part of being a Tory, backing a No Deal Brexit as opposed to simply respecting the Brexit vote is not, just another reason why you are not and never will be a Tory.

    2014 was a once in generation referendum and the Scots voted to stay in the UK and that should be respected
    Yebbut wanting to leave the EU is a pivotal part of being a Tory in today's party. Boris even made every would be MP swear as such.
    Respecting the Leave vote yes, the Tory manifesto also set out the Brexit deal with the EU they were aiming for, only Farage's party in 2019 was pushing No Deal
    Indeed. Reclaim laws and money being the first thing that the manifesto said.

    If the EU wants to control our laws and money and won't give us a deal without that control then it would betray the manifesto to sign up to that deal.
    Sod off to Farage then, good riddance and don't come back!!

    The Tory manifesto never made any promises on state aid
    I couldn't care less about state aid.

    I do care about laws and money which is what the manifesto said.
    State aid IS about laws and money.
    image
    Yes quite. So why were you saying you couldn't care less about State Aid?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Gaussian said:

    You can see why Scotland has proportionally the highest number of people infected out of the four nations.
    ?

    Last 7 days per 100,000:

    Wales 191.4
    Scotland 135
    Northern Ireland 175.4
    England 230.3

    Whole pandemic:

    Wales 2,341.6
    Scotland 1,648.8
    Northern Ireland 2,647.9
    England 2,353.6

    From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
    You have to factor in that nobody wants to visit Scotland, so why should Covid?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848

    I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.

    The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
    Like a "nut" is very apt.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Unless you're in Scotland, where it will be four, or two, anything but three.....

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1331267907641282566?s=20

    So Boris can enjoy Christmas!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020

    Unless you're in Scotland, where it will be four, or two, anything but three.....

    twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1331267907641282566?s=20

    3, but if one household has more than 2 children only 2, and if less than 2 children, 4....and in Wales it will be none for Christmas Eve and as many as you can fit in your home on Christmas Day.
  • Good news on cases, bad news on deaths:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1331269768528191488?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612

    Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Reality involves fake people faking fake COVID in fake hospitals.

    image

    Just like the most of Europe.......
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    11299 new cases....only 9854 in England...that's basically 60% of what it was 7 days ago.

    As entirely expected, the new national lockdown is having the desired effect as we enter the third week of restrictions. Reducing social contact and keeping people at home reduces the number of cases - we knew that from the spring and it was inevitable the same would happen if there was general compliance with the new restrictions.

    The big question is what will happen to case numbers once restrictions are eased at the beginning of the month. Given it's winter and we won't have the luxury of outdoor socialising to the extent we had in June, July and August it may be a fortnight before we start seeing case levels starting to rise again which will be in the week before Christmas which may then cause some anxiety in a Government which was publicly committed to allowing more social contact over the festive period.

    The "price" of that may be another surge of cases in late December and early January which may well force another sustained lockdown through January just as the vaccination programme (and I have severe doubts about the current Government's capacity and competence on this) kicks in.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kinabalu said:

    I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.

    The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
    Like a "nut" is very apt.
    Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....

    The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
  • What does he want? An armed mob shooting the election officials for their treason?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    They showed four scenarios on that plot, and the out of date one was replaced by one where the central prediction was worse.

    Eminent statistician my arse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020

    Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Reality involves fake people faking fake COVID in fake hospitals.

    image

    Just like the most of Europe.......
    This latest claim is the weirdest of the lot...the well PCR tests were fine and so deaths were correct in wave #1, but now at scale there are too many false positives, so loads of these deaths in wave #2 aren't COVID....other than the fact by the time when you get to hospital, COVID has very clear and different signs to normal flu / pneumonia, which hospitals are now well aware of. The chances of a misdiagnosis now seem very low, given we know things like blood clots, the rate of progressive from a bit short of breath to in the holy shit its serious territory etc.
  • Gaussian said:

    You can see why Scotland has proportionally the highest number of people infected out of the four nations.
    ?

    Last 7 days per 100,000:

    Wales 191.4
    Scotland 135
    Northern Ireland 175.4
    England 230.3

    Whole pandemic:

    Wales 2,341.6
    Scotland 1,648.8
    Northern Ireland 2,647.9
    England 2,353.6

    From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
    From the Gold Standard ONS.

    Latest estimates of percentage of population who have had Covid from ONS antibody survey.

    Scotland 7.1%

    England 6.9%

    Wales 4.1%

    Northern Ireland 2.1%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/november2020#likelihood-of-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland

    Mark Drakeford has handled the pandemic massively better than Boris Johnson, Labour landslide in next year's Senedd elections!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,053

    I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!

    Yes, a remarkable drop if the figures are kosher. Lots still round my way...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612

    Some interesting odds there. There is zero chance of Trump attending Biden's inauguration. And the only way he won't serve his full term is if he doesn't 'auto-pardon', but resigns so that Pence can do it for him.

    If he does resign is Pence then '46' and a bigger place in the history books?
    Has this ever happened before?
    Pence would be President - yes.

    A VP has replaced a President on a number of occasions.

    President resigning - well, Nixon.
  • Mr. G, when was Scotland colonised?

    I have pointed out to him on a few occasions that Scots were the most enthusiastic of colonialists and were massively overrepresented as major figures in the British Empire and they and their descendants have been hugely overrepresented in the British establishment ever since. Nationalists generally deny historical facts prior to frenzied book burning.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    malcolmg said:

    A consistent approach - even if it is one that says, "don't even think about it," - would be incredibly helpful to those of us with family on the other side of the border.

    Not something that worries a nationalist. This is the sort of behaviour that makes me worry about the implications of Independence.
    LOL, you unionists are a joke. You can crap all over us and it is fine , but the Scottish government actually looking after Scotland's interests against halfwits in Westminster and you are whining and whinging about implications of independence but have no concerns about colonolialism and downtrodding of Scotland. Jog on whiner.
    Scotland is as downtrodden and colonised within the Union with England as the UK was within the Union with Europe. Not at all.

    The victim card seemed to be the only one in the Brexiteers deck. Would be sad to see Scotland head to the same dead-end of imagined victimhood.
  • The UK demands its right to fuck over business by imposing a hard border with the EU and even within the UK, but if Scotland wants independence then it must be stupid because it would mean imposing a hard border and only an idiot would do that voluntarily.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    edited November 2020

    Some interesting odds there. There is zero chance of Trump attending Biden's inauguration. And the only way he won't serve his full term is if he doesn't 'auto-pardon', but resigns so that Pence can do it for him.

    If he does resign is Pence then '46' and a bigger place in the history books?
    Has this ever happened before?
    Pence would be President - yes.

    A VP has replaced a President on a number of occasions.

    President resigning - well, Nixon.
    The Betfair market isn't on Biden becoming Pres 46 is it? Might explain them not settling.....
  • Mr. G, when was Scotland colonised?

    18th of September 2014 was when Scotland was colonised.
  • Some interesting odds there. There is zero chance of Trump attending Biden's inauguration. And the only way he won't serve his full term is if he doesn't 'auto-pardon', but resigns so that Pence can do it for him.

    If he does resign is Pence then '46' and a bigger place in the history books?
    Has this ever happened before?
    Pence would be President - yes.

    A VP has replaced a President on a number of occasions.

    President resigning - well, Nixon.

    Some interesting odds there. There is zero chance of Trump attending Biden's inauguration. And the only way he won't serve his full term is if he doesn't 'auto-pardon', but resigns so that Pence can do it for him.

    If he does resign is Pence then '46' and a bigger place in the history books?
    Has this ever happened before?
    Pence would be President - yes.

    A VP has replaced a President on a number of occasions.

    President resigning - well, Nixon.
    The Betfair market isn't on Biden becoming Pres 46 is it? Might explain them not settling.....
    The market is on who wins the 2020 election, not the next POTUS market.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    What does he want? An armed mob shooting the election officials for their treason?
    He wants to leave behind a world where a republican, any republican, could win the presidency again.

    Because right now that is not looking likely. Not likely at all. And next to impossible if he quits without a fight.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Gaussian said:

    You can see why Scotland has proportionally the highest number of people infected out of the four nations.
    ?

    Last 7 days per 100,000:

    Wales 191.4
    Scotland 135
    Northern Ireland 175.4
    England 230.3

    Whole pandemic:

    Wales 2,341.6
    Scotland 1,648.8
    Northern Ireland 2,647.9
    England 2,353.6

    From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
    From the Gold Standard ONS.

    Latest estimates of percentage of population who have had Covid from ONS antibody survey.

    Scotland 7.1%

    England 6.9%

    Wales 4.1%

    Northern Ireland 2.1%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/november2020#likelihood-of-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland

    Mark Drakeford has handled the pandemic massively better than Boris Johnson, Labour landslide in next year's Senedd elections!
    Antibodies fade. People who got it in the first wave may no longer have antibodies.
  • malcolmg said:

    A consistent approach - even if it is one that says, "don't even think about it," - would be incredibly helpful to those of us with family on the other side of the border.

    Not something that worries a nationalist. This is the sort of behaviour that makes me worry about the implications of Independence.
    LOL, you unionists are a joke. You can crap all over us and it is fine , but the Scottish government actually looking after Scotland's interests against halfwits in Westminster and you are whining and whinging about implications of independence but have no concerns about colonolialism and downtrodding of Scotland. Jog on whiner.
    We leave the whingeing and whining to Scots Nats. It is something, along with historical revisionism, false grievance mongering, and general lying that you really are world class at. Cue the torrent of incoherent and inarticulate abuse lol.
  • It is stories like this that makes me wonder just how many people are going to refuse to take the vaccine because of something they read on social media?

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1331258647050153984

    It's same kind of idiocy Extinction Rebellion advocated yesterday.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Fascinating comments from Matt Hancock today:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55061543

    It's a cultural and economic issue not helped by the attitude of some employers who think anyone that is sick is skiving and indeed I've heard many stories of individuals being sacked because they had the temerity not to turn up for work owing to sickness.

    Since there are millions of people who are utterly dependent on their employment for the money to pay rent, buy food, look after their families, the prospect of losing your job if you are sick means they literally can't afford to be sick and if they are ill, they have to carry on.

    Others get no sick pay - if they aren't working thy get no income. They may keep their work but they need the money to survive.

    Finally, there's the cultural thing - if you aren't at the office people may think you aren't so important - the old "they can't manage without me" syndrome. That's more about management and how people work and that's a whole other can of worms.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Can "Spiegelhalter" be translated as "STFU"?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020

    It is stories like this that makes me wonder just how many people are going to refuse to take the vaccine because of something they read on social media?

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1331258647050153984

    It's same kind of idiocy Extinction Rebellion advocated yesterday.

    The same people when they can't get on an EasyJet for some summer sun they will be straight down the vaccine centre demanding one immediately and claiming it is outrageous they have to wait a week to get an appointment.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    stodge said:

    11299 new cases....only 9854 in England...that's basically 60% of what it was 7 days ago.

    As entirely expected, the new national lockdown is having the desired effect as we enter the third week of restrictions. Reducing social contact and keeping people at home reduces the number of cases - we knew that from the spring and it was inevitable the same would happen if there was general compliance with the new restrictions.

    The big question is what will happen to case numbers once restrictions are eased at the beginning of the month. Given it's winter and we won't have the luxury of outdoor socialising to the extent we had in June, July and August it may be a fortnight before we start seeing case levels starting to rise again which will be in the week before Christmas which may then cause some anxiety in a Government which was publicly committed to allowing more social contact over the festive period.

    The "price" of that may be another surge of cases in late December and early January which may well force another sustained lockdown through January just as the vaccination programme (and I have severe doubts about the current Government's capacity and competence on this) kicks in.
    Did the one in the Spring have such a quick effect? it was only 2 weeks ago that 33000 cases were reported on one day
  • kinabalu said:

    FPT

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the No Deal diehards refuse to even accept a Canada style FTA they can sod off to Farage as far as I am concerned and never come back!!

    Well said.

    But what if that (no deal) becomes Cons Party policy and/or is enacted. Where would that leave your relationship with the Party?
    I would still stay in the party and argue for a Deal, I am obviously not going to go off to Farage either way am I!
    You swallowed Brexit although you believed that the wellbeing of the UK was best served by staying in the EU. You now say that if the Party said it wanted no deal you would stay when you believe that it would be very bad for your country.

    So at what point would you think that the Party had moved too far from your beliefs, and was inflicting too much harm on the country you love, such that you would, in all good faith, no longer be able to remain a member of it?
    I believe he draws the line in recognising that Scots have a right to national self-determination like Cameron and Thatcher said. If the Tory leader won't send in jackboots to squash the rebellious Scots then that is his deal breaker.
    Preserving the Union at all costs is a pivotal part of being a Tory, backing a No Deal Brexit as opposed to simply respecting the Brexit vote is not, just another reason why you are not and never will be a Tory.

    2014 was a once in generation referendum and the Scots voted to stay in the UK and that should be respected
    Yebbut wanting to leave the EU is a pivotal part of being a Tory in today's party. Boris even made every would be MP swear as such.
    Respecting the Leave vote yes, the Tory manifesto also set out the Brexit deal with the EU they were aiming for, only Farage's party in 2019 was pushing No Deal
    Indeed. Reclaim laws and money being the first thing that the manifesto said.

    If the EU wants to control our laws and money and won't give us a deal without that control then it would betray the manifesto to sign up to that deal.
    Sod off to Farage then, good riddance and don't come back!!

    The Tory manifesto never made any promises on state aid
    I couldn't care less about state aid.

    I do care about laws and money which is what the manifesto said.
    State aid IS about laws and money.
    image
    Yes quite. So why were you saying you couldn't care less about State Aid?
    Because "State Aid" is normally presumed to mean simply supporting failed companies or state champions.

    But it isn't what is being argued about. It is disingenuous completely to call this a debate about state aid, that is not the issue. The whole "level playing field" concept is about controlling our laws and money - if we give a blank cheque to the EU to determine if something breaches the "level playing field" and they are the sole arbiters of it using their court then that would mean we do not control our laws and money except at their bidding. That is what makes this such a nebulous and fraught discussion that is occuring.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm really not convinced that this three household mixing for the 23rd to 27th is a good idea. It's going to end in disaster two weeks later and in January we're going to start up the vaccination programme for real. This really makes no sense at all. I know people want to be with their families at Christmas, and it is an important time of year but with the vaccine right around the corner the sacrifice seems small.

    I would have gone with rule of 6 (plus kids) on Christmas day....people would still abuse that rule, but if you start with the rules being 3 households for 5 days, it will turn into a week of people going from friend to friend to friend.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848
    edited November 2020

    kinabalu said:

    I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.

    The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
    Like a "nut" is very apt.
    Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....

    The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
    I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Foxy said:

    I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!

    Yes, a remarkable drop if the figures are kosher. Lots still round my way...
    The problem is some cling to the statistics and the graphs and the bar charts like a drowning man to a life-raft. All the figures tell you are numbers of positive cases - the number of people actually with the virus now is completely unknown. We have used incredibly deficient data to shape public policy for months.

    I've been told the figures are much worse than those publicised but I don't believe it. I do believe some have had the virus and suffered with it and recovered and never taken a test.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited November 2020

    Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Can "Spiegelhalter" be translated as "STFU"?
    As a student I once had drinks with David Spiegelhalter, after his talk titled 'On average every human in the world has at least one testicle.'

    IIRC Spiegelhalter is German for mirror holder.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!

    Yes, a remarkable drop if the figures are kosher. Lots still round my way...
    The problem is some cling to the statistics and the graphs and the bar charts like a drowning man to a life-raft. All the figures tell you are numbers of positive cases - the number of people actually with the virus now is completely unknown. We have used incredibly deficient data to shape public policy for months.

    I've been told the figures are much worse than those publicised but I don't believe it. I do believe some have had the virus and suffered with it and recovered and never taken a test.
    The ONS survey for England

    image

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,053
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!

    Yes, a remarkable drop if the figures are kosher. Lots still round my way...
    The problem is some cling to the statistics and the graphs and the bar charts like a drowning man to a life-raft. All the figures tell you are numbers of positive cases - the number of people actually with the virus now is completely unknown. We have used incredibly deficient data to shape public policy for months.

    I've been told the figures are much worse than those publicised but I don't believe it. I do believe some have had the virus and suffered with it and recovered and never taken a test.
    Sure, but why has that behaviour changed so much in a week? Getting a test is no longer difficult.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Deaths are going to continue to rise for a few days yet, due to being baked in.
    However, hospital admissions are continuing to decline, pointing to fewer deaths baked in past that point. I'm going to guess that the period 20-23 November will, in retrospect, be the peak of deaths for the second wave, but it will take us as much as another week to see that clearly.

    The fact that positivity is also down as well as cases is encouraging.

    Basically: If infections are on Day D+0, hospitalisations tend to follow on Day D+10, and deaths on Day D+19.
    Infections look to have been subsiding for a while, hospitalisations not quite as long, and we look to be between the hospitalisation peak and the deaths peak right now.
  • Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Can "Spiegelhalter" be translated as "STFU"?
    As a student I once had drinks with David Spiegelhalter, after his talk 'On average every human in the world has at least one testicle.'

    IIRC Spiegelhalter is German for mirror holder.
    Spiegel shares its etymology with speculum, I believe.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    11299 new cases....only 9854 in England...that's basically 60% of what it was 7 days ago.

    Very good news.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    stodge said:

    11299 new cases....only 9854 in England...that's basically 60% of what it was 7 days ago.

    As entirely expected, the new national lockdown is having the desired effect as we enter the third week of restrictions. Reducing social contact and keeping people at home reduces the number of cases - we knew that from the spring and it was inevitable the same would happen if there was general compliance with the new restrictions.

    The big question is what will happen to case numbers once restrictions are eased at the beginning of the month. Given it's winter and we won't have the luxury of outdoor socialising to the extent we had in June, July and August it may be a fortnight before we start seeing case levels starting to rise again which will be in the week before Christmas which may then cause some anxiety in a Government which was publicly committed to allowing more social contact over the festive period.

    The "price" of that may be another surge of cases in late December and early January which may well force another sustained lockdown through January just as the vaccination programme (and I have severe doubts about the current Government's capacity and competence on this) kicks in.
    Did the one in the Spring have such a quick effect? it was only 2 weeks ago that 33000 cases were reported on one day
    Difficult to say as the testing regime was so different. Certainly widely reported to be 100,000 new cases per day at peak. I guess the lagging death indicator is the only way to extrapolate back?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!

    Yes, a remarkable drop if the figures are kosher. Lots still round my way...
    The problem is some cling to the statistics and the graphs and the bar charts like a drowning man to a life-raft. All the figures tell you are numbers of positive cases - the number of people actually with the virus now is completely unknown. We have used incredibly deficient data to shape public policy for months.

    I've been told the figures are much worse than those publicised but I don't believe it. I do believe some have had the virus and suffered with it and recovered and never taken a test.
    Sure, but why has that behaviour changed so much in a week? Getting a test is no longer difficult.
    And hasn't been since the beginning of November, when the latest expansion of testing capacity has left "spare" capacity of 200K per day

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
  • Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Can "Spiegelhalter" be translated as "STFU"?
    As a student I once had drinks with David Spiegelhalter, after his talk 'On average every human in the world has at least one testicle.'

    IIRC Spiegelhalter is German for mirror holder.
    Spiegel shares its etymology with speculum, I believe.
    Wait, the august German newspaper 'Der Spiegel' isn't called 'The Mirror' but 'The Speculum'?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    malcolmg said:

    Think you mean looking after Scotland's interests halfwit. Days of just kissing the feet of the turnips in Westminster is gone , they can F*** up England all they want but we will vote in people who look after our interests. Just doing her job.
    Malc, bor, (East Anglian for mate) that sounds awfully like what an idiot Brexiteer would say!.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Reality involves fake people faking fake COVID in fake hospitals.

    image

    Just like the most of Europe.......
    This latest claim is the weirdest of the lot...the well PCR tests were fine and so deaths were correct in wave #1, but now at scale there are too many false positives, so loads of these deaths in wave #2 aren't COVID....other than the fact by the time when you get to hospital, COVID has very clear and different signs to normal flu / pneumonia, which hospitals are now well aware of. The chances of a misdiagnosis now seem very low, given we know things like blood clots, the rate of progressive from a bit short of breath to in the holy shit its serious territory etc.
    And people given a positive result on covid are dying at many times the normal rate, for some reason. Occam's Razor very strongly points to the positive covid response being linked; anyone suggesting differently needs to come up with another cause behind all those deaths.
  • Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Can "Spiegelhalter" be translated as "STFU"?
    As a student I once had drinks with David Spiegelhalter, after his talk 'On average every human in the world has at least one testicle.'

    IIRC Spiegelhalter is German for mirror holder.
    Spiegel shares its etymology with speculum, I believe.
    Wait, the august German newspaper 'Der Spiegel' isn't called 'The Mirror' but 'The Speculum'?
    Well.. Yes

    speculum
    in British English
    (ˈspɛkjʊləm )
    NOUN
    Word forms: plural -la (-lə) or -lums
    1. a mirror, esp one made of polished metal for use in a telescope, etc
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd be on the dems big time for the Georgia run-offs.

    The republican party is going to crack like a nut.
    Like a "nut" is very apt.
    Yeah well I was thinking watermelon...but that would have been more apt for the greens.....

    The Trumpistas are furious with the RINOS for not fighting. That much I do know.
    I wonder what the split is of his vote between trad Republican partisans and Trumpers. This is important for assessing how things will pan out over the next 4 years. My sense is that right now he has about 25m who are loyal to him and his brand. It's a lot. But I see it dwindling once he and the clan lose the trappings of the presidency. We've had peak Trump, I think.
    Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.

    Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.

    The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.

    Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.

    America? One party state now.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm really not convinced that this three household mixing for the 23rd to 27th is a good idea. It's going to end in disaster two weeks later and in January we're going to start up the vaccination programme for real. This really makes no sense at all. I know people want to be with their families at Christmas, and it is an important time of year but with the vaccine right around the corner the sacrifice seems small.

    I've not gone nine months without seeing my grandparents only to kill see them at Christmas with vaccinations coming in a matter of weeks.
    As a grandparent I think that that is very wise.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    Did the one in the Spring have such a quick effect? it was only 2 weeks ago that 33000 cases were reported on one day

    The testing regime in place now is far more extensive then the one in the spring. The numbers of cases back then were much lower but the virus was clearly much more prevalent though the initial peak came in early April so just after the fist lockdown.

    We know a lot more than we did then though you wouldn't think so sometimes. Restricting social activity is having the desired effect in terms of cases and ultimately deaths though today's numbers are appalling.

    This time next week the figures will be much lower again - we'll be champing at the bit to get back to the pub (that seems the case if you read PB). I suspect much of the country will be put into Tier 1 and we'll start back bingeing on the life we've missed and the case numbers will rise again just before Christmas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Trump 53%
    Pence 12%
    Trump Jr 8%

    Morning Consult 2024 poll

    Don't forget Trump supporters don't like to talk to pollsters particularly either. So his support amongst grassroots GOP is likely still higher.

    Four years and long time springs to mind though.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm really not convinced that this three household mixing for the 23rd to 27th is a good idea. It's going to end in disaster two weeks later and in January we're going to start up the vaccination programme for real. This really makes no sense at all. I know people want to be with their families at Christmas, and it is an important time of year but with the vaccine right around the corner the sacrifice seems small.

    I've not gone nine months without seeing my grandparents only to kill see them at Christmas with vaccinations coming in a matter of weeks.
    Parents in my case but exactly the same. Its beyond irresponsible from the government to be encouraging people to kill their Granny at Christmas.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,053

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    I hope this big fall in announced positive cases isn't some excel glitch!

    Yes, a remarkable drop if the figures are kosher. Lots still round my way...
    The problem is some cling to the statistics and the graphs and the bar charts like a drowning man to a life-raft. All the figures tell you are numbers of positive cases - the number of people actually with the virus now is completely unknown. We have used incredibly deficient data to shape public policy for months.

    I've been told the figures are much worse than those publicised but I don't believe it. I do believe some have had the virus and suffered with it and recovered and never taken a test.
    Sure, but why has that behaviour changed so much in a week? Getting a test is no longer difficult.
    And hasn't been since the beginning of November, when the latest expansion of testing capacity has left "spare" capacity of 200K per day

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
    Certainly Mrs Foxy, myself and @ydoethur all arranged tests very promptly.

    I am feeling a bit rough today, not sure if it is coronachondria or not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612

    malcolmg said:

    Think you mean looking after Scotland's interests halfwit. Days of just kissing the feet of the turnips in Westminster is gone , they can F*** up England all they want but we will vote in people who look after our interests. Just doing her job.
    Malc, bor, (East Anglian for mate) that sounds awfully like what an idiot Brexiteer would say!.
    I am rationally concerned for the best interests of my country
    You are crude nationalist
    He/She is a Trumpian Neo-Nazi Turnip
  • stodge said:

    11299 new cases....only 9854 in England...that's basically 60% of what it was 7 days ago.

    As entirely expected, the new national lockdown is having the desired effect as we enter the third week of restrictions. Reducing social contact and keeping people at home reduces the number of cases - we knew that from the spring and it was inevitable the same would happen if there was general compliance with the new restrictions.

    The big question is what will happen to case numbers once restrictions are eased at the beginning of the month. Given it's winter and we won't have the luxury of outdoor socialising to the extent we had in June, July and August it may be a fortnight before we start seeing case levels starting to rise again which will be in the week before Christmas which may then cause some anxiety in a Government which was publicly committed to allowing more social contact over the festive period.

    The "price" of that may be another surge of cases in late December and early January which may well force another sustained lockdown through January just as the vaccination programme (and I have severe doubts about the current Government's capacity and competence on this) kicks in.
    Did the one in the Spring have such a quick effect? it was only 2 weeks ago that 33000 cases were reported on one day
    Difficult to say as the testing regime was so different. Certainly widely reported to be 100,000 new cases per day at peak. I guess the lagging death indicator is the only way to extrapolate back?
    And cases often only reported when people admitted to hospital, and hence had already been ill for a while, back in April, so numbers much more lagged then. Weekly new recorded cases started plateauing in early April, falling from early May. But likely that in reality cases far higher initially and started declining a couple of weeks after lockdown like now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    11299 new cases....only 9854 in England...that's basically 60% of what it was 7 days ago.

    Very good news.
    It's tuesday too :) - we're definitely over this particular peak.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    What does he want? An armed mob shooting the election officials for their treason?
    He voted by post himself! Was that fraudulent dishonest or trigged? (Well, probably was dishonest, 'cos it was him!)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    edited November 2020


    Good question but I reckon its probably more. Trump got more votes than any pretty much any republican.

    Its just that Biden also got far more votes than Obama.

    The repubs could go back to a Romney/McCain type, but they just lose by more.

    Looking at the numbers, the repubs don't win again. Ever.

    America? One party state now.

    That's as wrong as those who claimed Labour could never win again after 1992.

    It's possible the Trump fan club will break from the GOP and run a third party candidate (perhaps the ex-President himself) in 2024. As happened with Theodore Roosevelt, that will hand the WH to the Democrats for another four years but the humiliation will end Trumpism and as happened with both the Labour and Conservatives here after long periods in opposition, the desire to win will overcome any petty ideological differences.

    In 2028, the GOP will re-unite around a moderate conservative and likely win.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612

    Number 10 cherry-picked 'spurious' coronavirus data to justify England's second lockdown and may have intended to frightened the public, according to one of Britain's top experts.

    Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said ministers had 'broken pretty much every code of conduct' by choosing only to show worst-case scenarios, which were often based on out of date data.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8979123/Number-10-used-apocalyptic-Covid-19-graphs-frighten-public-lockdown-statistician.html

    Reality involves fake people faking fake COVID in fake hospitals.

    image

    Just like the most of Europe.......
    This latest claim is the weirdest of the lot...the well PCR tests were fine and so deaths were correct in wave #1, but now at scale there are too many false positives, so loads of these deaths in wave #2 aren't COVID....other than the fact by the time when you get to hospital, COVID has very clear and different signs to normal flu / pneumonia, which hospitals are now well aware of. The chances of a misdiagnosis now seem very low, given we know things like blood clots, the rate of progressive from a bit short of breath to in the holy shit its serious territory etc.
    And people given a positive result on covid are dying at many times the normal rate, for some reason. Occam's Razor very strongly points to the positive covid response being linked; anyone suggesting differently needs to come up with another cause behind all those deaths.
    So we have people

    - faking testing positive
    - faking symptoms
    - faking symptoms so bad they require hospitalisation
    - faking recovering from the fake systems as a result treatment
    - faking dying of the fake illness
    - faking evidence on autopsy of fake illness

    At some point fake becomes the real thing, surely?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    Gaussian said:

    You can see why Scotland has proportionally the highest number of people infected out of the four nations.
    ?

    Last 7 days per 100,000:

    Wales 191.4
    Scotland 135
    Northern Ireland 175.4
    England 230.3

    Whole pandemic:

    Wales 2,341.6
    Scotland 1,648.8
    Northern Ireland 2,647.9
    England 2,353.6

    From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
    From the Gold Standard ONS.

    Latest estimates of percentage of population who have had Covid from ONS antibody survey.

    Scotland 7.1%

    England 6.9%

    Wales 4.1%

    Northern Ireland 2.1%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/november2020#likelihood-of-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland

    Mark Drakeford has handled the pandemic massively better than Boris Johnson, Labour landslide in next year's Senedd elections!
    That data has enormous error bars on it. Wales 95% confidence interval: 2.4% to 6.5%. Scotland 4.6% to 10.4%.

    The problem with the case data is that it's dominated by the second wave, as there wasn't enough testing in the first one. Scotland reacted marginally more quickly to the seoncd one, so kept the numbers a bit lower there.

    The deaths data suggests it's much of a muchness between England, Scotland and Wales overall, where NI is a bit lower due to not being hit quite as badly by the first wave:

    Death per 100,000, whole pandemic:
    Wales 102.4
    Scotland 94
    Northern Ireland 63.4
    England 101.5
This discussion has been closed.