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Punters still betting on Trump even though his legal and other efforts to stay have floundered – pol

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited November 2020

    Chris said:
    Arithmetically, I make it that the numbers were probably pretty close to:

    half dose/full dose/4 weeks regimen: 30 in placebo (unknown amount serious); 3 in vaccine (none serious)
    full dose/full dose/2 weeks regimen: 71 in placebo (unknown amount serious); 27 in vaccine (none serious)

    The number of cases in the halfdose/full dose/4 weeks regimen is smaller, but comparable to the initial plans for the first interim Pfizer analysis. They do say it's "indications" and indeed the statistical fuzziness is wider, but there are enough cases to be very sure that it's a better outcome than the full dose/full dose regimen. Essentially, it means it's very probably in the 80%-97% range with this dose strategy, I’d guess (real mathematicians please check and refine this guesstimate)
    I'm not a statistician, but my calculation was more like 69-97%.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
  • Hancock enjoying his moment on R4 Today.
  • As I predicted at the start of the lockdown, it was nothing to do with the increasing cases, it was to allow them to announce the vaccine results when the pubs were shut.

    Yes you did say this and it clearly has absolutely nothing WHATSOEVER to do with vaccine announcements. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Zero.

    You actually said it was so as to make space for administering the vaccine which is clearly preposterous.

    The lockdown was to slow the spread of the virus. Amazing. But true.
    As I reported at the time a chap from Porton Down had told me that the Government were going to do this. We went from Raab on the Friday saying we must give time for the tiered approach to work to a full lockdown being annouced on the Saturday. Now the Government are saying that the lockdown will definitely end on the 2nd December and this is before any affect of the lockdown being in the figures. And you think these changes are nothing to do with the Vaccine annoucements?

    Yes I'm certain it has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with it.

    Why would it? There's isn't a single scrap of logic as to why it should make the blindest bit of difference. Contra what you said, it's not like they're about to rush out tomorrow to jab people in the arm. In fact if anything the vaccination programme will only begin once lockdown has ended!!!

    This is precisely how conspiracy theories take hold. Two apparently random events are connected by someone without any logic or evidence and then others latch onto it.

    Perhaps add more tinfoil to the hat?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    edited November 2020
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morning all. Not having been been here since mid morning yesterday; @ydoethur how's did the test go?

    Personallty, as far the general situation is concerned, Mrs C and I still expect to stay with the plans we've got. We did get some good news about the possibility of going to Thailand, though!

    It was vile, thank you for asking. I very much hope I never have to have another.
    Hopefully you'll get your (negative) result as quickly as you got your appointment. My test was home collected on a Saturday morning and I had the result by email Monday lunchtime. So tomorrow looks probable.
    I had mine on Friday lunchtime, result before breakfast Sunday. Negative despite Mrs Foxy sharing a room with me all week. 🤔
  • Back to normal by Easter reckons Hancock.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:
    That's interesting in that the efficacy of the vaccine can be tweaked significantly by the methodology used getting effectiveness from 60 odd per cent up to the 90. It may be that the same can be done with the Oxford vaccine.
    It’s not methodology!

    It’s dosing regime - very very different
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    Depends how its sold. If people in the most dangerous category are told they can have a jab that's got a 70% chance of working I think you'd struggle. Think getting on a plane with a 70% chance of not crashing
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex_ said:

    The problem is the headline. If you’ve got one vaccine headlined as “70% effective” and one as “95% effective” then individuals are going to demand the latter. And get very angry when told they can’t have it. Doesn’t matter what the detail says.

    Once again the media covering themselves in glory. Not.

    The 70% figure is completely and utterly irrelevant (not sure why AZ referenced it to be honest)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited November 2020

    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Oxford vaccine’s 70% effectiveness comes in poorly compared to Pfizer and Moderna

    But 3 months ago we would have been absolutely delighted with this result. A classic case of anchoring thanks to Pfizer announcing their results first.
    And also wrong thanks to poor headline reporting - even from the BBC.

    And by the way we won't truly know the full efficacy of any of these for some time - although we now stand a very good chance of bringing this under control.
    Nor, TBH, will we know the side-effects. I know there are few so far, but I suggest that when one rolls something like this over populations of 50million or so unusual side effects will occur.
    Wikipedia says that side effects can be categorised as follows:
    The probability or chance of experiencing side effects are characterised as :
    Very common, ≥ 1⁄10
    Common (frequent), 1⁄100 to 1⁄10
    Uncommon (infrequent), 1⁄1000 to 1⁄100
    Rare, 1⁄10000 to 1⁄1000
    Very rare, < 1⁄10000
    Thalidomide waves :open_mouth:

    Actually, Thalidomide is a very good drug for many things, but not anywhere women of child bearing age. Apparently, hair loss drugs for men are also very dangerous for pregnant women and can even kill cats.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morning all. Not having been been here since mid morning yesterday; @ydoethur how's did the test go?

    Personallty, as far the general situation is concerned, Mrs C and I still expect to stay with the plans we've got. We did get some good news about the possibility of going to Thailand, though!

    It was vile, thank you for asking. I very much hope I never have to have another.
    Hopefully you'll get your (negative) result as quickly as you got your appointment. My test was home collected on a Saturday morning and I had the result by email Monday lunchtime. So tomorrow looks probable.
    I had mine on Friday lunchtime, result before breakfast Sunday. Negative despite Mrs Foxy sharing a room with me all week. 🤔
    Given your job the chance that you've had it already, mild or asymptomatic, can't be negligble?
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    "especially in Europe" klaxon.
    In other words, "please cherry-pick your data to weaken your own point".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    "especially in Europe" klaxon.
    In other words, "please cherry-pick your data to weaken your own point".
    Not at all

    As we are told so often we are all Europeans and it is fair to compare outcomes within Europe
  • somebody was fretting that live virus is used by oxford. its a version of the common cold.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    Europe? We are an island nation. Who had just left the EU to Take Back Control of our borders.

    Which is why we left the borders open and didn't bother with foreign nonsense like mandatory quarantine, come one and come all and bring your pox with you. And as soon as anything lifted lets all be British and fly to Benidorm for a holiday.

    But if you want a European example - Germany.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    "especially in Europe" klaxon.
    In other words, "please cherry-pick your data to weaken your own point".
    Not at all

    As we are told so often we are all Europeans and it is fair to compare outcomes within Europe
    Ah, now you're trying to elevate politics above science. That really won't do.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    Depends how its sold. If people in the most dangerous category are told they can have a jab that's got a 70% chance of working I think you'd struggle. Think getting on a plane with a 70% chance of not crashing
    More like a choice between two planes, one of which has a safety record three times better.

    But thankfully there should be enough Pfizer vaccine for people in the highest-risk groups. And the fact that there were no serious cases/hospitalisations in the AstraZeneca trial shouldn't be overlooked.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited November 2020

    Back to normal by Easter reckons Hancock.

    He'd know. He was always so accurate with his previous assessments...~

    We all need light at the end of the tunnel. Prospects of a vaccine is genuinely fabulous news. All the more reason why the narrative has to be spot on because this is the most dangerous time.

    Get the message out there that we've almost beaten it and people relax and stop following the protocols. Which increases the infection and death rates. "One more heave" should be the message - there will be other Christmases - not "we've beaten the pesky scientists who wanted to steal your Christmas."
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    Depends how its sold. If people in the most dangerous category are told they can have a jab that's got a 70% chance of working I think you'd struggle. Think getting on a plane with a 70% chance of not crashing
    More like a choice between two planes, one of which has a safety record three times better.

    But thankfully there should be enough Pfizer vaccine for people in the highest-risk groups. And the fact that there were no serious cases/hospitalisations in the AstraZeneca trial shouldn't be overlooked.
    Good post
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    On R4 the head of the Jenner Lab suggested that the 1/2 dose first, full dose second might be more effective because the immune system was “primed” before the second dose. Even at the average 70% effectiveness that’s better than the flu jab. Additionally none of the vaccinated developed serious illnesses. 3billion doses available globally in 2021. Not as sexy headlines as Pfizer/Moderna but possibly more effective given distribution challenges.

    Wait for complaints of “why are lesser developed countries only getting the shit vaccine - it’s the greedy capitalist puds in America” and ignoring things like cold chain logistics...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The comms around vaccines is a done deal. There is a cheap and cheerful one and expensive effective one. Which one do you want?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morning all. Not having been been here since mid morning yesterday; @ydoethur how's did the test go?

    Personallty, as far the general situation is concerned, Mrs C and I still expect to stay with the plans we've got. We did get some good news about the possibility of going to Thailand, though!

    It was vile, thank you for asking. I very much hope I never have to have another.
    Hopefully you'll get your (negative) result as quickly as you got your appointment. My test was home collected on a Saturday morning and I had the result by email Monday lunchtime. So tomorrow looks probable.
    I had mine on Friday lunchtime, result before breakfast Sunday. Negative despite Mrs Foxy sharing a room with me all week. 🤔
    Given your job the chance that you've had it already, mild or asymptomatic, can't be negligble?
    I had negative antibodies in July. It's going to be a long week of isolation with coronachondria!

    Mrs Foxy pretty much back to normal now. Bossing me about as per usual. 😏
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    Europe? We are an island nation. Who had just left the EU to Take Back Control of our borders.

    Which is why we left the borders open and didn't bother with foreign nonsense like mandatory quarantine, come one and come all and bring your pox with you. And as soon as anything lifted lets all be British and fly to Benidorm for a holiday.

    But if you want a European example - Germany.
    And Germany is experiencing serious issues with test and trace and rising numbers

    It is the case that most countries are struggling with this virus, apart from the Southern Hemisphere which has had greater experiencing of combating this type of virus
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    That's the future Charles. Modifying RNA and DNA will be the way all diseases are treated in the future and we will be able pre-emptively to strike cancer. Possibly re-grow limbs and even slow down ageing.

    Like all science, there will need to be ethical checks and balances, but if you think RNA technology isn't a phenomenally brilliant scientific breakthrough then you're not Charles. You're Canute.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    I don't understand why they've reported the efficacy of the Oxford vaccine as 70%.

    It's efficacy is most likely either ~60% with one dosing regime, or ~90% with another, but it's not likely to be ~70%.

    They're hardly likely to use a mix of the two regimes when widely deployed - they'll use the best. It's a bizarre framing of the results that make it look a lot less effective, when it's about the same as the others with the optimum dosing strategy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    It is. But I'm still going to try and get the best.

    The real trouble will come if some countries permit visa entry with Pfizer and Moderna but not Astra-Zeneca.

    I'm being a bit unfair. 'Up to 90%' wouldn't be too bad. It's just that the others got in there before with a more gold star bit of media massage.

    One thing that puzzles me - I think Pfizer is is waiting for regulatory approval in the US. Could any delays stop other countries obtaining the Pfizer vaccine?
    I doubt Pfizer will apply for approval in other countries until the fda has approved
  • Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I am not hearing the media suggesting we have backed the wrong horse and as I understand it the Oxford vaccine is more effective than our present flu jab
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited November 2020
    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    Not really.
    mRNA vaccines don't alter DNA - they merely hijack cellular machinery to produce copies of the spike protein.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    90% effective. Boom.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    BBC website headline goes with 70%, Sky with 90%.

    Interesting editorial choices.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Scott_xP said:
    I often wonder why people bother tweeting. I mean, that's supposed to be clever and funny I'm sure but it's neither.

    Vacuous crap.

    Have a good day everyone :smiley:
  • Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    Depends how its sold. If people in the most dangerous category are told they can have a jab that's got a 70% chance of working I think you'd struggle. Think getting on a plane with a 70% chance of not crashing
    More like a choice between two planes, one of which has a safety record three times better.

    But thankfully there should be enough Pfizer vaccine for people in the highest-risk groups. And the fact that there were no serious cases/hospitalisations in the AstraZeneca trial shouldn't be overlooked.
    Wait, this is all a bit unfair. I don't think anyone's suggesting the vaccine is like a plane crash. Taking the vaccine won't kill you. And even if you're in the 30% who isn't protected, the fact that 70% of those treated will be actually protects you and everyone else.

    Additional: sounds like some people think it's actually better than 70%, but I haven't looked into the arguments for that yet, so treat as a placeholder.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Scott_xP said:
    Funny. And why Britain struggles in the world.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    "especially in Europe" klaxon.
    In other words, "please cherry-pick your data to weaken your own point".
    Not at all

    As we are told so often we are all Europeans and it is fair to compare outcomes within Europe
    Ah, now you're trying to elevate politics above science. That really won't do.
    No, I think he just does not like it when you criticise his beloved Conservative Party. If you had criticised Labour you probably would have received glowing praise....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    Depends how its sold. If people in the most dangerous category are told they can have a jab that's got a 70% chance of working I think you'd struggle. Think getting on a plane with a 70% chance of not crashing
    More like a choice between two planes, one of which has a safety record three times better.

    But thankfully there should be enough Pfizer vaccine for people in the highest-risk groups. And the fact that there were no serious cases/hospitalisations in the AstraZeneca trial shouldn't be overlooked.
    There's a difference between safety and effectiveness.
    And in any event, far too little data (especially considering the half dose regime) to say that the Pfizer vaccine is three times as effective.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I am not hearing the media suggesting we have backed the wrong horse and as I understand it the Oxford vaccine is more effective than our present flu jab
    AIUI the issue with flu isn't the effectiveness of the vaccine against the chosen strain, but choosing in advance the right strain.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    Not really.
    mRNA vaccines don't alter DNA - they merely hijack cellular machinery to produce copies of the spike protein.
    Yes and no. Covid is an RNA virus, so has no DNA. RNA is its genetic material.

    Being single stranded, RNA is less stable and more prone to mutation, so perhaps an evolutionary advantage for a virus.
  • Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    So you reckon it’s safer to wait a year for a 95% effective vaccine than 3 months for a 90% one?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I get spooked these days by anyone with a union jack after their name.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    We didn’t “back the wrong horse”

    We backed the best in class in each technological approach.

    Turns out mRNA is more efficacious than the Jenner approach (but also has significant disadvantages).

    It’s called the “portfolio effect”
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I'm fine with the 90% one. Which could, of course, still be 95%+ with more data.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    .

    somebody was fretting that live virus is used by oxford. its a version of the common cold.

    It's an inactivated virus from chimpanzees.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Nigelb said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    That's bull.
    We backed every horse - it's simply that we don't have any domestic companies with the mRNA technology. Be grateful that we have the Oxford vaccine - it puts us in a far better position than most countries.

    As for your massive push, you won't get the choice.
    Imperial are developing the mRNA method. Still looking for a PIII partner. Anyway, 90% effective is plenty.
  • There is still time for the government to be responsible. A "Last Christmas" campaign, as in don't make it your Granny's Last Christmas.

    Question - is the game plan that a massive spike in January will distract everyone away from the Brexit fiasco? People will be too busy ill/dying/mourning to get angry that they can't get fresh food in the supermarkets?

    If not, then why allow it? Shagger "Battling the scientists to save Christmas" say the newspapers. Save it from what - the science that lifting restrictions for 5 days will kill a whole pile of people?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    That's the future Charles. Modifying RNA and DNA will be the way all diseases are treated in the future and we will be able pre-emptively to strike cancer. Possibly re-grow limbs and even slow down ageing.

    Like all science, there will need to be ethical checks and balances, but if you think RNA technology isn't a phenomenally brilliant scientific breakthrough then you're not Charles. You're Canute.
    I’ve been working with mRNA companies for about 15 years...
  • Surely if the AZ one offers 90% if half a dose is provided first then a full does a month later, that is preferable to the others as only 1.5 doses required per person instead of 2 doses and almost identical, very high, effectiveness???
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    "especially in Europe" klaxon.
    In other words, "please cherry-pick your data to weaken your own point".
    Not at all

    As we are told so often we are all Europeans and it is fair to compare outcomes within Europe
    Ah, now you're trying to elevate politics above science. That really won't do.
    No, I think he just does not like it when you criticise his beloved Conservative Party. If you had criticised Labour you probably would have received glowing praise....
    Right now, I'm not even criticising any party. I'm just saying that we shouldn't cherry pick our comparisons. There are very valid comparisons that can be made with other countries, even those that are populated by - gasp - Asians. But, for some odd reason, they tend to fall by the wayside.

    We could learn a lot from South Korea, India, Japan, Iran. Both in terms of good and poor practice.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Surely if the AZ one offers 90% if half a dose is provided first then a full does a month later, that is preferable to the others as only 1.5 doses required per person instead of 2 doses and almost identical, very high, effectiveness???

    Yes, it is preferable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @Charles any indication of a timeframe for regulatory approval of the AZ vaccine?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,602
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Funny. And why Britain Oxford struggles in the world.
    (Thought I'd beat TSE to it.....)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    It is. But I'm still going to try and get the best.

    The real trouble will come if some countries permit visa entry with Pfizer and Moderna but not Astra-Zeneca.

    I'm being a bit unfair. 'Up to 90%' wouldn't be too bad. It's just that the others got in there before with a more gold star bit of media massage.

    One thing that puzzles me - I think Pfizer is is waiting for regulatory approval in the US. Could any delays stop other countries obtaining the Pfizer vaccine?
    I doubt Pfizer will apply for approval in other countries until the fda has approved
    Why not? Why should the rest of the word be beholden to the US system?
  • Roger said:

    I get spooked these days by anyone with a union jack after their name.
    Who is the British Ambassador to ASEAN?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    Not really.
    mRNA vaccines don't alter DNA - they merely hijack cellular machinery to produce copies of the spike protein.
    Yes and no. Covid is an RNA virus, so has no DNA. RNA is its genetic material.

    Being single stranded, RNA is less stable and more prone to mutation, so perhaps an evolutionary advantage for a virus.
    Sure.
    But Charles said the vaccines mess with genetic information; they don't.
    Ditto Covid.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    If you’re the MHRA and government the correct approach here is to authorise Pfizer, who have completed their trial and the government uses that vaccine for their first phase vaccination targeting anyone who gets a flu jab in normal priority order. Then they wait for the final result from the half-dose full-dose dosing regime to confirm the efficacy compared with the Pfizer vaccine. That will let them decide if the Oxford vaccine can be used for everyone or whether there’ll be (similar to flu) a high priority, low priority vaccine scheme. Their PR has to be spot on here though and I’m worried that this government is mightily crap at messaging and will fuck it up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I'm fine with the 90% one. Which could, of course, still be 95%+ with more data.
    Wait til the postal ballots are counted.

    The key question for many is which vaccine contains which mind control microchip. I am not sure the Dido Harding mind control system has been fully tested.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    I get spooked these days by anyone with a union jack after their name.
    TBF he’s a U.K. Ambassador
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    .

    somebody was fretting that live virus is used by oxford. its a version of the common cold.

    It's an inactivated virus from chimpanzees.
    Killed or attenuated?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited November 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    Not really.
    mRNA vaccines don't alter DNA - they merely hijack cellular machinery to produce copies of the spike protein.
    Yes and no. Covid is an RNA virus, so has no DNA. RNA is its genetic material.

    Being single stranded, RNA is less stable and more prone to mutation, so perhaps an evolutionary advantage for a virus.
    Sure.
    But Charles said the vaccines mess with genetic information; they don't.
    Ditto Covid.
    I think Charles may have been pointing out the potential fake news about each one. The AZ vaccine is 90% effective, they're hardly going to recommend a dosing regime that results in a lower efficacy and the MHRA isn't going approve the 70% method. It shouldn't even be in the headlines, the 90% figure is what we're going to get. 70% is fake news and mRNA vaccines messing with your DNA is as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    It’s the the planet of the apes all over again. Where is Charlton Heston?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    That's the future Charles. Modifying RNA and DNA will be the way all diseases are treated in the future and we will be able pre-emptively to strike cancer. Possibly re-grow limbs and even slow down ageing.

    Like all science, there will need to be ethical checks and balances, but if you think RNA technology isn't a phenomenally brilliant scientific breakthrough then you're not Charles. You're Canute.
    The first gene therapy drug commercially licensed in the US is pretty expensive. $850 000 per case.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/spark-therapeutics-luxturna-gene-therapy-will-cost-about-850000.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    "especially in Europe" klaxon.
    In other words, "please cherry-pick your data to weaken your own point".
    Not at all

    As we are told so often we are all Europeans and it is fair to compare outcomes within Europe
    Ah, now you're trying to elevate politics above science. That really won't do.
    No, I think he just does not like it when you criticise his beloved Conservative Party. If you had criticised Labour you probably would have received glowing praise....
    Right now, I'm not even criticising any party. I'm just saying that we shouldn't cherry pick our comparisons. There are very valid comparisons that can be made with other countries, even those that are populated by - gasp - Asians. But, for some odd reason, they tend to fall by the wayside.

    We could learn a lot from South Korea, India, Japan, Iran. Both in terms of good and poor practice.
    The original post referred to “comparable countries”. Of course comparisons can be made to those you list, but I’d argue France, Germany, Italy, Spain and possibly Belgium would be “comparable countries” while Japan, India etc are too different
  • Stocky said:

    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    It is. But I'm still going to try and get the best.

    The real trouble will come if some countries permit visa entry with Pfizer and Moderna but not Astra-Zeneca.

    I'm being a bit unfair. 'Up to 90%' wouldn't be too bad. It's just that the others got in there before with a more gold star bit of media massage.

    One thing that puzzles me - I think Pfizer is is waiting for regulatory approval in the US. Could any delays stop other countries obtaining the Pfizer vaccine?
    I doubt Pfizer will apply for approval in other countries until the fda has approved
    Why not? Why should the rest of the word be beholden to the US system?
    Because a lot of countries will ask “ What does the FDA say?”
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @Charles any indication of a timeframe for regulatory approval of the AZ vaccine?

    Haven’t looked yet
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @Charles any indication of a timeframe for regulatory approval of the AZ vaccine?

    Haven’t looked yet
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Stocky said:

    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    It is. But I'm still going to try and get the best.

    The real trouble will come if some countries permit visa entry with Pfizer and Moderna but not Astra-Zeneca.

    I'm being a bit unfair. 'Up to 90%' wouldn't be too bad. It's just that the others got in there before with a more gold star bit of media massage.

    One thing that puzzles me - I think Pfizer is is waiting for regulatory approval in the US. Could any delays stop other countries obtaining the Pfizer vaccine?
    I doubt Pfizer will apply for approval in other countries until the fda has approved
    Why not? Why should the rest of the word be beholden to the US system?
    Resources. Until they were digitised the paperwork for a regulatory approval filled a small van.

    Get one major approval and then file with everyone else
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    It is. But I'm still going to try and get the best.

    The real trouble will come if some countries permit visa entry with Pfizer and Moderna but not Astra-Zeneca.

    I'm being a bit unfair. 'Up to 90%' wouldn't be too bad. It's just that the others got in there before with a more gold star bit of media massage.

    One thing that puzzles me - I think Pfizer is is waiting for regulatory approval in the US. Could any delays stop other countries obtaining the Pfizer vaccine?
    I doubt Pfizer will apply for approval in other countries until the fda has approved
    Why not? Why should the rest of the word be beholden to the US system?
    Because a lot of countries will ask “ What does the FDA say?”
    Sure, other countries will be interested in the opinion of the FDA. That`s different from a country not being able to make their own judgements and purchasing decisions outside of FDA authorisation if they want to.
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s the the planet of the apes all over again. Where is Charlton Heston?

    Tell me, though. Does man, that marvel of the universe, that glorious paradox who sent me to the stars, still make war against his brother? Keep his neighbour's children starving?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    That's bull.
    We backed every horse - it's simply that we don't have any domestic companies with the mRNA technology. Be grateful that we have the Oxford vaccine - it puts us in a far better position than most countries.

    As for your massive push, you won't get the choice.
    Imperial are developing the mRNA method. Still looking for a PIII partner. Anyway, 90% effective is plenty.
    Sure - but it's a university research effort. And the government did back it to the tune of £41m back in April.

    Moderna had been working on mRNA therapeutics, and the associated manufacturing and delivery technology for years (which failed, before they shifted to vaccine development).
    My point, which I've made before, is that, in an emergency, governments have to back what's already there. You can put in place the infrastructure for next time around, but it takes much longer to build from scratch.
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s the the planet of the apes all over again. Where is Charlton Heston?

    Chambering rounds in case the 2nd Amendment is needed.... ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Jonathan said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I'm fine with the 90% one. Which could, of course, still be 95%+ with more data.
    Wait til the postal ballots are counted.

    The key question for many is which vaccine contains which mind control microchip. I am not sure the Dido Harding mind control system has been fully tested.
    Don't worry, we have a new range of tinfoil lined MAGA hats, which protect against the vaccine mind control chips.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Here we go. You beat me to it.

    Fast forward six months and there will be news of people getting the vaccine but still contracting the virus and Starmer will be criticising the government for injecting us with the wrong stuff.

    FFS - this is great news this morning.
    It is. But I'm still going to try and get the best.

    The real trouble will come if some countries permit visa entry with Pfizer and Moderna but not Astra-Zeneca.

    I'm being a bit unfair. 'Up to 90%' wouldn't be too bad. It's just that the others got in there before with a more gold star bit of media massage.

    One thing that puzzles me - I think Pfizer is is waiting for regulatory approval in the US. Could any delays stop other countries obtaining the Pfizer vaccine?
    I doubt Pfizer will apply for approval in other countries until the fda has approved
    Why not? Why should the rest of the word be beholden to the US system?
    Resources. Until they were digitised the paperwork for a regulatory approval filled a small van.

    Get one major approval and then file with everyone else
    Hasn't Pfizer also applied for emergency use with the MHRA as well? They're expected to receive it in the first week of December.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    So Boris backed the dud?

    Okay, that's a bit unfair. Even 70% wouldn't be too bad and up to 90% is very decent but there will always now be the lingering doubt that there's a much better version out there which is 95% effective. And it doesn't use a live virus to boot.

    Just messes with genetic information instead...
    Not really.
    mRNA vaccines don't alter DNA - they merely hijack cellular machinery to produce copies of the spike protein.
    Yes and no. Covid is an RNA virus, so has no DNA. RNA is its genetic material.

    Being single stranded, RNA is less stable and more prone to mutation, so perhaps an evolutionary advantage for a virus.
    Sure.
    But Charles said the vaccines mess with genetic information; they don't.
    Ditto Covid.
    It was an irritated response to @Mysticrose flapping around, not a comment on these specific vaccines. I haven’t been close enough to the PFE or Moderna programmes to look in detail
  • I can understand why they haven't settled the Next President market, just. What beggars belief is that they haven't settled the Popular Vote market.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.

    I thought it was AZ at 99% reporting and Biden winning by just over 10K ..... I better have a double dose of breakfast :confused:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Does lockdown end 2nd or 3rd Dec? I can`t wait to get back in the gym and a day matters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I'm fine with the 90% one. Which could, of course, still be 95%+ with more data.
    Wait til the postal ballots are counted.

    The key question for many is which vaccine contains which mind control microchip. I am not sure the Dido Harding mind control system has been fully tested.
    Don't worry, we have a new range of tinfoil lined MAGA hats, which protect against the vaccine mind control chips.
    What use is a hat for MAGA mind control? You need tinfoil underpants or something that wraps foil around gut instinct.
  • Charles said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Morning all! Glad to see that the Tories are Determined to kill Granny for Christmas. Ho Ho Ho!

    And Labour in Wales, Unionists/SF in NI and the SNP in Scotland. Idiot.
    Dear me. Who is the government of the United Kingdom? Feeding their idiot savants in the press CHRISTMAS IS SAVED! So its ok to have Johnny come home from university and have 5 days of festive frolics with Mum, Dad, Granny, Aunt Flo and Uncle Fester. And then 5 days of funerals in January to bury half of them.

    And for what? A "shopping binge"? To keep Wetherspoons going?

    As I said yesterday. Corrupt, Inept, Arrogant, Hypocritical. The worst government we have ever had and at the worst possible time.
    I presume you believe that Sturgeon, Philips, Drakeford have been forced into this by Johnson. In whci case my initial assessment was spot on. Are you expecting Starmer to oppose this?
    "Forced" isn't the right word. The devolved administrations have been able to flex the UK approach and set out their own messaging - but this is built on the UK platform which has been chaotic, contradictory and self-defeating. Short of Sturgeon coming and and saying what needs saying - that Westminster haven't a fucking clue what they are doing please ignore them - its difficult to completely change the narrative.

    We have one government. And a growing pile of corpses. A bit like with Biden in the US what Starmer says/thinks isn't going to change things when the government rule by edict. Remember the 5 point scale which Shagger managed to put us initially at 3.5 on? Remember the 3 point scale which wasn't strong enough and ended up with regional variations and haggling? Now we apparently have another 3 point scale but different to the last 3 point scale but don't worry because He has Saved Christmas so that you can finally kill your parents.
    You're so ott with your prejudices and hate that it's quite pointless to say any more - as others have already made clear this morning.
    I'll take your opinion under advisement. OTT?
    There was a 5 point scale. Which he put at 3.5 on. Widely ridiculed on here at the time
    There was a 3 point scale. Not enough said Whitty, hence the need for a "lockdown"
    There was regional variation. And haggling. And Tory MPs saying "no money" for their Greater Manchester seats only to be torpedoed by Downing Street finding the money days later
    There is a pile of 55,000 corpses. And thats only the official number
    There is a major worry by the scientists that the unlockdown for Christmas will kill people by the thousand.

    But as you say, I am completely over the top in my hate for a government who has presided over this whilst comparable countries get by reasonably unscathed.
    Which countries especially in Europe are you using in respect of your last sentence
    "especially in Europe" klaxon.
    In other words, "please cherry-pick your data to weaken your own point".
    Not at all

    As we are told so often we are all Europeans and it is fair to compare outcomes within Europe
    Ah, now you're trying to elevate politics above science. That really won't do.
    No, I think he just does not like it when you criticise his beloved Conservative Party. If you had criticised Labour you probably would have received glowing praise....
    Right now, I'm not even criticising any party. I'm just saying that we shouldn't cherry pick our comparisons. There are very valid comparisons that can be made with other countries, even those that are populated by - gasp - Asians. But, for some odd reason, they tend to fall by the wayside.

    We could learn a lot from South Korea, India, Japan, Iran. Both in terms of good and poor practice.
    The original post referred to “comparable countries”. Of course comparisons can be made to those you list, but I’d argue France, Germany, Italy, Spain and possibly Belgium would be “comparable countries” while Japan, India etc are too different
    I restate my point that as an island nation we had the far easier ability to control its influx than any of these countries did. And yet Germany shut its borders for a while and we did not. Thats Germany supposedly a supplicant of Brussels unable to close its borders closing its borders whilst newly free and sovereign UK did not.

    Why is that? Borders and Care Homes are the two biggies - the maliciously stupid decisions that killed thousands. Shut the border and impose quarantine. Don't force care homes to take Covid-unknown and Covid-positive patients back into the home. Binary decisions. Got wrong.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.

    Because it's the was they decided at the start that they'd assess efficacy - doing something different when you've seen the results is a fundamental mistake in clinical trials, like saying you don't like a poll result but the Scottish subsample suggests a much better outcome. Further examination of the data gives a "hint" that doing it differently might give a 90% result, but that needs a separate trial IMO.

    It's not a question of blame - we invested in a very serious effort and normally 70% would be a great result. Ity turns out that something else would be even better, but that's nobody's fault. What would be totally unacceptable would be to push out the Oxford vaccine now without further testing of the new hypothesis. Let's use the Pfizer/Modema vaccine for now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Woo, great vaccine news! That’s three of them almost ready to go.

    Hopefully this damn menace will soon be over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    somebody was fretting that live virus is used by oxford. its a version of the common cold.

    It's an inactivated virus from chimpanzees.
    Killed or attenuated?
    Attenuated.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2020

    MaxPB said:

    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.

    Because it's the was they decided at the start that they'd assess efficacy - doing something different when you've seen the results is a fundamental mistake in clinical trials, like saying you don't like a poll result but the Scottish subsample suggests a much better outcome. Further examination of the data gives a "hint" that doing it differently might give a 90% result, but that needs a separate trial IMO.

    It's not a question of blame - we invested in a very serious effort and normally 70% would be a great result. Ity turns out that something else would be even better, but that's nobody's fault. What would be totally unacceptable would be to push out the Oxford vaccine now without further testing of the new hypothesis. Let's use the Pfizer/Modema vaccine for now.
    "What would be totally unacceptable would be to push out the Oxford vaccine now" - there we go - see my post earlier - you beat Starmer to the politicking Nick!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    edited November 2020
    Stocky said:

    Does lockdown end 2nd or 3rd Dec? I can`t wait to get back in the gym and a day matters.

    3rd Dec is first day out.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Nigelb said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    That's bull.
    We backed every horse - it's simply that we don't have any domestic companies with the mRNA technology. Be grateful that we have the Oxford vaccine - it puts us in a far better position than most countries.

    As for your massive push, you won't get the choice.
    What makes you say that? We've ordered lots of the Pfizer vaccine and some of the Modema, so can get on with using that for the vlunerable and frontline staff.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Does lockdown end 2nd or 3rd Dec? I can`t wait to get back in the gym and a day matters.

    3rd Dec.
    Bum
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    AZ undersold with the 70 figure, no hospitalisations or severe disease. The half then full dose will be gone for
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    That's bull.
    We backed every horse - it's simply that we don't have any domestic companies with the mRNA technology. Be grateful that we have the Oxford vaccine - it puts us in a far better position than most countries.

    As for your massive push, you won't get the choice.
    Imperial are developing the mRNA method. Still looking for a PIII partner. Anyway, 90% effective is plenty.
    Sure - but it's a university research effort. And the government did back it to the tune of £41m back in April.

    Moderna had been working on mRNA therapeutics, and the associated manufacturing and delivery technology for years (which failed, before they shifted to vaccine development).
    My point, which I've made before, is that, in an emergency, governments have to back what's already there. You can put in place the infrastructure for next time around, but it takes much longer to build from scratch.
    I completely agree, we've got 99m doses of 95%, 94% and 90% effective vaccines due before the end of April. It's a very strong portfolio and another champagne moment for the vaccine taskforce.

    What worries me is that by April a few countries (UK, US, Japan, Canada) will have their effective R down to 0 due to vaccination programmes. Where does that leave other vaccone candidates. Between these three there is around 2bn in global manufacturing capacity, that's nowhere near enough to see the back of this virus. We need other credible candidates to come through and I can only see J&J as having the ability to complete a PIII trial because they've already started during a second wave, loads of countries won't have a third wave.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    I’m slightly concerned by the smallish sample size in the dose that has 90% efficacy. They clearly weren’t expecting that dose to be as effective so only gave it to 3000 people compared to >17k who got the full dose. That should slightly dampen our expectations. Anything between 70% and 90% is still worthwhile and good (especially as an inexpensive mass jab you can produce billions of doses of) but it’s not going to go down well when the government bangs on about being world beating and delivers the population a “second class” innoculation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    edited November 2020

    MaxPB said:

    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.

    Because it's the was they decided at the start that they'd assess efficacy - doing something different when you've seen the results is a fundamental mistake in clinical trials, like saying you don't like a poll result but the Scottish subsample suggests a much better outcome. Further examination of the data gives a "hint" that doing it differently might give a 90% result, but that needs a separate trial IMO.

    It's not a question of blame - we invested in a very serious effort and normally 70% would be a great result. Ity turns out that something else would be even better, but that's nobody's fault. What would be totally unacceptable would be to push out the Oxford vaccine now without further testing of the new hypothesis. Let's use the Pfizer/Modema vaccine for now.
    There aren't enough doses of Pfizer or Moderna to go round. Even at the lower efficacy of ~60% it would be worth using the Oxford vaccine as an interim measure (assuming the safety data passes) until something better is available.

    There's no need to wait for a trial to be repeated of the better dosing regime.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Jonathan said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I'm fine with the 90% one. Which could, of course, still be 95%+ with more data.
    Wait til the postal ballots are counted.

    The key question for many is which vaccine contains which mind control microchip. I am not sure the Dido Harding mind control system has been fully tested.
    Absolutely nothing to worry about. The Dido Harding mind control chip won't work.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Sandpit said:

    Woo, great vaccine news! That’s three of them almost ready to go.

    Hopefully this damn menace will soon be over.

    Should load a three-pronged needle with all three, so no one knows what they are going to get. Bit like a tame version of Russian roulette. Sort of.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    MaxPB said:

    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.

    Because it's the was they decided at the start that they'd assess efficacy - doing something different when you've seen the results is a fundamental mistake in clinical trials, like saying you don't like a poll result but the Scottish subsample suggests a much better outcome. Further examination of the data gives a "hint" that doing it differently might give a 90% result, but that needs a separate trial IMO.

    It's not a question of blame - we invested in a very serious effort and normally 70% would be a great result. Ity turns out that something else would be even better, but that's nobody's fault. What would be totally unacceptable would be to push out the Oxford vaccine now without further testing of the new hypothesis. Let's use the Pfizer/Modema vaccine for now.
    70% ain't bad for a single dose regime, and possibly milder disease in who gets it despite.

    Quite reasonable to roll out while awaiting the 2 stage trial result.

    I agree that changing the outcome measure after looking at the data is not good science.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.

    Because it's the was they decided at the start that they'd assess efficacy - doing something different when you've seen the results is a fundamental mistake in clinical trials, like saying you don't like a poll result but the Scottish subsample suggests a much better outcome. Further examination of the data gives a "hint" that doing it differently might give a 90% result, but that needs a separate trial IMO.

    It's not a question of blame - we invested in a very serious effort and normally 70% would be a great result. Ity turns out that something else would be even better, but that's nobody's fault. What would be totally unacceptable would be to push out the Oxford vaccine now without further testing of the new hypothesis. Let's use the Pfizer/Modema vaccine for now.
    But the trial is set up for different dosing regimes and the half/full method showed 90% efficacy. That's hard data for the MHRA to work from.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Listening to the report on the Oxford vaccine it is really great news and yet it seems siren voices are trying to criticise it's efficacy and you do wonder why when we get good news many seem to want it to fail

    It is very disappointing that we cannot all rejoice at good news

    Er, because two other vaccines are better i.e. more effective.

    It's good news but it's not great news. We've backed the wrong horse.

    It's like saying that we should rejoice that British Sky Broadcasting produced a Squarial when the market i.e. everyone wanted a mini satellite dish instead.

    You mark my words ... there will be a massive push for Pfizer and Moderna. And I'm one of them.
    I'm fine with the 90% one. Which could, of course, still be 95%+ with more data.
    Wait til the postal ballots are counted.

    The key question for many is which vaccine contains which mind control microchip. I am not sure the Dido Harding mind control system has been fully tested.
    Absolutely nothing to worry about. The Dido Harding mind control chip won't work.
    Or will we get brain push notifications 24/7? Do we want Matt Hancock appearing more often in our dreams? The people have a right to know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    MaxPB said:

    Don't understand why AZ even reported the 70% figure. It's unnecessarily confusing.

    Because it's the was they decided at the start that they'd assess efficacy - doing something different when you've seen the results is a fundamental mistake in clinical trials, like saying you don't like a poll result but the Scottish subsample suggests a much better outcome. Further examination of the data gives a "hint" that doing it differently might give a 90% result, but that needs a separate trial IMO.

    It's not a question of blame - we invested in a very serious effort and normally 70% would be a great result. Ity turns out that something else would be even better, but that's nobody's fault. What would be totally unacceptable would be to push out the Oxford vaccine now without further testing of the new hypothesis. Let's use the Pfizer/Modema vaccine for now.
    TBF, it's a bit more than a hint. They have a decent number of cases to go on.
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