Weatherspoons will be ok - but most pubs are not gastropubs.
Yes, I think sadly a lot of pubs serving drinks only in Tier 2 or 3 will go bust next year as they cannot reopen over Christmas but some limits have to be drawn somewhere if shops are reopening
As I was saying in the previous thread, how "close" do some of you think this vaccine actually is?
Based on the timetable @TheScreamingEagles speculated last week, we're talking 6 months+.
It's not a "matter of weeks" before we have all vulnerable people vaccinated.
I feel expectations need to be seriously managed.
Don't forget that R comes down with the number vaccinated. I wouldn't be surprised if we were giving 100,000 people a week a jab by the end of the year, and 1m by the end of January.
While the vaccine programme will likely continue until next autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest restrictions were removed by Easter.
I would love that to be the case, but is that realistic? That suggests a slick logistic operation. I'm not holding my breath. There's only 6 weeks until the end of the year and none of the vaccines are even approved yet.
The Pfizer vaccine will be approved PDQ I think.
Their emergency approval request will be considered on the 10th December. That leaves 3 weeks until the end of 2020. So how on earth will we be vaccinating 100,000 people per week by the end of those 3 weeks?
The logistics don't care which vaccine is approved. It is pretty much the same for all.
As I was saying in the previous thread, how "close" do some of you think this vaccine actually is?
Based on the timetable @TheScreamingEagles speculated last week, we're talking 6 months+.
It's not a "matter of weeks" before we have all vulnerable people vaccinated.
I feel expectations need to be seriously managed.
Don't forget that R comes down with the number vaccinated. I wouldn't be surprised if we were giving 100,000 people a week a jab by the end of the year, and 1m by the end of January.
While the vaccine programme will likely continue until next autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest restrictions were removed by Easter.
I would love that to be the case, but is that realistic? That suggests a slick logistic operation. I'm not holding my breath. There's only 6 weeks until the end of the year and none of the vaccines are even approved yet.
The Pfizer vaccine will be approved PDQ I think.
Their emergency approval request will be considered on the 10th December. That leaves 3 weeks until the end of 2020. So how on earth will we be vaccinating 100,000 people per week by the end of those 3 weeks?
The logistics don't care which vaccine is approved. It is pretty much the same for all.
Does the storage temperature requirement not determine a factor of complexity @Foxy?
The vaccine can last a week at normal freezer temps
Should not take that long to get from storage into someone's arm.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
Food box list were a combination of central information, local authority information and GP records. If they had missed 10,000 of vulnerable people who had starved to death we would definitely have heard about it. The reality was that the vast vast majority of those having to shield got regular food supplies.
They also managed to get the vast majority of homeless off the streets and into hotels and they definitely aren't as a whole on easy to find "lists".
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Probably not long since they just use last year's plan. It's not as if they have to reinvent the wheel for this.
Except they do. Once you exhaust the list of those who get notified about flu jabs, how do you vaccinate everyone else? You're going to have to have a system where people 'request' them as not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system.
There is not a register of everyone, along with their age and up-to-date contact details, is there?
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Probably not long since they just use last year's plan. It's not as if they have to reinvent the wheel for this.
Except they do. Once you exhaust the list of those who get notified about flu jabs, how do you vaccinate everyone else? You're going to have to have a system where people 'request' them as not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system.
There is not a register of everyone, along with their age and up-to-date contact details, is there?
You're going to get the 15-20 million who went for a flu jab last year. Then you start digging through GP records, then tax records to see who else has been left out. You'll very easily get up to 75% of the population.
Weatherspoons will be ok - but most pubs are not gastropubs.
Yes, I think sadly a lot of pubs serving drinks only in Tier 2 or 3 will go bust next year as they cannot reopen over Christmas but some limits have to be drawn somewhere if shops are reopening
I wonder what position will be re-pubs which allow customers to bring in meals to eat - ie curries or fish& chips.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
We’ll run out of vaccines before we run out of elderly people registered for vaccines though I suspect. It gets more administratively tricky the further you roll through, but that’s broadly in line with risk profile - most oldies are registered and therefore fairly easy to find.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Probably not long since they just use last year's plan. It's not as if they have to reinvent the wheel for this.
Except they do. Once you exhaust the list of those who get notified about flu jabs, how do you vaccinate everyone else? You're going to have to have a system where people 'request' them as not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system.
There is not a register of everyone, along with their age and up-to-date contact details, is there?
You're going to get the 15-20 million who went for a flu jab last year. Then you start digging through GP records, then tax records to see who else has been left out. You'll very easily get up to 75% of the population.
Then you'll have 25 million people chomping at the bit to get vaccinated ASAP, as they will likely have to prove they have been vaccinated in order to do things they want to do.
The political pressure will be immense if people are having to sit and wait for a letter through the door, hoping they haven't slipped through the cracks.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
You need a system for people to make themselves known. Does such a system exist?
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Probably not long since they just use last year's plan. It's not as if they have to reinvent the wheel for this.
Except they do. Once you exhaust the list of those who get notified about flu jabs, how do you vaccinate everyone else? You're going to have to have a system where people 'request' them as not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system.
There is not a register of everyone, along with their age and up-to-date contact details, is there?
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
You need a system for people to make themselves known. Does such a system exist?
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
You need a system for people to make themselves known. Does such a system exist?
Registering with a GP?
Lol. That isn't easy, even at the best of times. It's certainly not a quick process.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
You need a system for people to make themselves known. Does such a system exist?
Registering with a GP?
Lol. That isn't easy, even at the best of times. It's certainly not a quick process.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
GP registration is pretty complete, not always up to date, but 90% accurate.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
You need a system for people to make themselves known. Does such a system exist?
Registering with a GP?
Lol. That isn't easy, even at the best of times. It's certainly not a quick process.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
You need a system for people to make themselves known. Does such a system exist?
Registering with a GP?
Lol. That isn't easy, even at the best of times. It's certainly not a quick process.
Weatherspoons will be ok - but most pubs are not gastropubs.
Yes, I think sadly a lot of pubs serving drinks only in Tier 2 or 3 will go bust next year as they cannot reopen over Christmas but some limits have to be drawn somewhere if shops are reopening
I wonder what position will be re-pubs which allow customers to bring in meals to eat - ie curries or fish& chips.
I think by the time we get to most of the "difficult" cases i.e. not with a GP, not in employment, not on local authorities lists for services, move around a lot etc, if there are 3 vaccines of which the AZ we will basically have masses of supply of, I suspect you will be able to book a shot at a centre in the way you can with a COVID test at the moment.
The main thing for the next 3-4 months it to get all the oldies and people with serious conditions done and between GPs and local authority records, that will cover the vast vast majority in the same way as the food parcel system did for those shielding.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Surely it's just a repeated exercise each year, one that C-19 can repeat in the next few months???
But it needs to be done for everyone. And crucially it needs to be done incredibly quickly, and people need to be able to produce proof that they've had it.
People are going to be falling over themselves to get the C-19 jab. Phone lines and online systems will be inundated. This isn't going to be a simple case of "repeat the flu jab procedure".
They will just send out letters/emails/texts to the most vulnerable first exactly as they do for the flu
This year I had an appointment one Tuesday morning at 09:27 for the flu jab and my wife had the 09:28 appointment, there were hundreds of appointments all through one week in October, literally every minute,
The process exists, they will simply repeat that exercise initially and roll it out group by group.
People can call all they like, won't slow down the jabs going in the arms of those contacted to have the jab though.
You can do it for the same people who get flu jabs, but after that it falls apart. Not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system. Etc.
You do not have to for this to be a success.
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
I think you people are being overly optimistic. I may be being overly pessimistic but this is not as simple as just repeating the flu jab procedure. If it was that easy, COVID testing would be a doddle too.
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
So what's the issue? If people want it they will make themselves known.
You need a system for people to make themselves known. Does such a system exist?
Registering with a GP?
Lol. That isn't easy, even at the best of times. It's certainly not a quick process.
I think by the time we get to most of the "difficult" cases i.e. not with a GP, not in employment, not on local authorities lists for services etc, if there are 3 vaccines of which the AZ we will basically have masses of supply of, I suspect you will be able to book a shot at a centre in the way you can with a COVID test at the moment.
The main thing for the next 3-4 months it to get all the oldies and people with serious conditions done and between GPs and local authority records, that will cover the vast vast majority in the same way as the food parcel system did for those shielding.
3-4 months is too long. That is exactly why people should be allowed to see each-other at Christmas.
In the North East we've not been allowed to see people outside our household, inside, since 18th September. That's 2 months already. By Christmas it will be 3 months.
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
Her statement earlier that the CIA and Governor Kemp of Georgia had been bribed by Venezuela was pretty obviously libellous. Even Trump isn't that crazy.
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
This is confusion over substantial meals? It's a long-standing legal concept.
The story seems to be that the GOP leadership has finally been moved to act after she began promoting a conspiracy theory that the Governor of Georgia was bribed to nobble the Dominion voting machines in his state ... and that this had the knock on effect of ensuring that Loeffler finished ahead of Doug Collins in the special Senate race. In other words Kemp fixed the machines to ensure that one Republican candidate beat the other (the one more favoured by the conspiracy crew). This has then led to a growing campaign on Parler (the new favoured social media site) to boycott the run off election because it's all fixed.
And the GOP have woken up to the fact that there is an enormous chance that it could cost them the Senate.
The extra funny thing is, that now that Powell has been sacked by Trump, it has simply reinforced the conspiracy theorists. They're siding with Powell over Trump.
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
This is confusion over substantial meals? It's a long-standing legal concept.
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
Almost certainly. There are council hygiene inspections for all food outlets. And a list of licensed premises. PS. We've done this before. Most pubs don't serve food.
"Hillary Clinton says Biden should not concede the election 'under any circumstances'
The former Democratic presidential nominee predicted Republicans could try to “mess up absentee balloting” for a narrow advantage in the Electoral College."
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
Almost certainly. There are council hygiene inspections for all food outlets. And a list of licensed premises. PS. We've done this before. Most pubs don't serve food.
It’s pretty rare to find a pub down here that serves no food. There are plenty that serve shit/mediocre food, and plenty that serve really good food. But no fooders are unusual.
Weatherspoons will be ok - but most pubs are not gastropubs.
Almost all pubs down here serve food, in many of them the food is good (unlike Spoons, where it is utter shite)
Pretty much all the pubs round here serve food. And very good it is too!
But then the Lakes is a bit of a foodie destination.
Certainly on my list (I should have been there on a walking/foodie pub tour in April). Good luck to Miss Cyclefree Jr making the most of the new rules!
Her statement earlier that the CIA and Governor Kemp of Georgia had been bribed by Venezuela was pretty obviously libellous. Even Trump isn't that crazy.
NOT libelous under US libel law - as per the Sullivan decision. In US, it is VERY difficult to libel a public official. because in addition to proving a statement to be false, in case of public figures must also prove malice.
Weatherspoons will be ok - but most pubs are not gastropubs.
Almost all pubs down here serve food, in many of them the food is good (unlike Spoons, where it is utter shite)
Pretty much all the pubs round here serve food. And very good it is too!
But then the Lakes is a bit of a foodie destination.
Going to the pub for a drink is a vastly different experience to going to the pub to have a substantial meal and a drink
Custom will drop right off
I agree. Visting a gastropub tends to be more of a special occasion - Birthdays,Mothers Day etc. Personally I tend to go out most Sundays for a pub lunch. Such establishments will suffer if they are denied their regular drinkers who normally appear several nights during the week.
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
Almost certainly. There are council hygiene inspections for all food outlets. And a list of licensed premises. PS. We've done this before. Most pubs don't serve food.
It’s pretty rare to find a pub down here that serves no food. There are plenty that serve shit/mediocre food, and plenty that serve really good food. But no fooders are unusual.
Here is the link. Although it's from 2018. I appreciate there is a difference between food led and no food, but as others have shown a substantial meal is legally defined.
There are far more spit and sawdust pubs out there than many appreciate. Not for long I imagine. And, as @ManchesterKurt points out, going for a night on the piss is an entirely different endeavour to having 3 pints with a meal. And attracts entirely different clientele.
The story seems to be that the GOP leadership has finally been moved to act after she began promoting a conspiracy theory that the Governor of Georgia was bribed to nobble the Dominion voting machines in his state ... and that this had the knock on effect of ensuring that Loeffler finished ahead of Doug Collins in the special Senate race. In other words Kemp fixed the machines to ensure that one Republican candidate beat the other (the one more favoured by the conspiracy crew). This has then led to a growing campaign on Parler (the new favoured social media site) to boycott the run off election because it's all fixed.
And the GOP have woken up to the fact that there is an enormous chance that it could cost them the Senate.
The extra funny thing is, that now that Powell has been sacked by Trump, it has simply reinforced the conspiracy theorists. They're siding with Powell over Trump.
Ha ha. Just been studying karma. Or "actions and their effects" as it is more accurately described.
Her statement earlier that the CIA and Governor Kemp of Georgia had been bribed by Venezuela was pretty obviously libellous. Even Trump isn't that crazy.
NOT libelous under US libel law - as per the Sullivan decision. In US, it is VERY difficult to libel a public official. because in addition to proving a statement to be false, in case of public figures must also prove malice.
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
Almost certainly. There are council hygiene inspections for all food outlets. And a list of licensed premises. PS. We've done this before. Most pubs don't serve food.
It’s pretty rare to find a pub down here that serves no food. There are plenty that serve shit/mediocre food, and plenty that serve really good food. But no fooders are unusual.
Here is the link. Although it's from 2018. I appreciate there is a difference between food led and no food, but as others have shown a substantial meal is legally defined.
There are far more spit and sawdust pubs out there than many appreciate. Not for long I imagine. And, as @ManchesterKurt points out, going for a night on the piss is an entirely different endeavour to having 3 pints with a meal. And attracts entirely different clientele.
There’s clearly a regional effect. I have said before that it’s much harder to find a good pub serving proper food from a proper kitchen up north than it is down here. There are of course fantastic exceptions (e,g. The Feathers at Stocksfield and Miss Cyclefree Jr’s gaff in the Lakes!)
But, as a rule, pubs are much better down south and the general availability and standard of food is superior to the north.
The story seems to be that the GOP leadership has finally been moved to act after she began promoting a conspiracy theory that the Governor of Georgia was bribed to nobble the Dominion voting machines in his state ... and that this had the knock on effect of ensuring that Loeffler finished ahead of Doug Collins in the special Senate race. In other words Kemp fixed the machines to ensure that one Republican candidate beat the other (the one more favoured by the conspiracy crew). This has then led to a growing campaign on Parler (the new favoured social media site) to boycott the run off election because it's all fixed.
And the GOP have woken up to the fact that there is an enormous chance that it could cost them the Senate.
The extra funny thing is, that now that Powell has been sacked by Trump, it has simply reinforced the conspiracy theorists. They're siding with Powell over Trump.
Weatherspoons will be ok - but most pubs are not gastropubs.
Almost all pubs down here serve food, in many of them the food is good (unlike Spoons, where it is utter shite)
Pretty much all the pubs round here serve food. And very good it is too!
But then the Lakes is a bit of a foodie destination.
Going to the pub for a drink is a vastly different experience to going to the pub to have a substantial meal and a drink
Custom will drop right off
Yes - I know. The 10 pm curfew which has kept drinkers away has cost my daughter about £1K a week in revenue by comparison with the same period last year.
It’s a relentless bleeding of the business. Hard to see how it can survive until April let alone next summer, if that’s how long the restrictions go on for.
And God knows what Brexit will mean, if there are food shortages or higher prices.
My initial sense - subject to this being confirmed - is that these proposals will create a lot of confusion, ill will and a fair bit of bitterness amongst regular pub goers. Even pubs which offer food rely to a great extent on customers who only wish to drink. In many cases relying on diners alone will not make business viable.Moreover, how easy will this be to police? Is there any kind of register of food and non-food pubs?
Almost certainly. There are council hygiene inspections for all food outlets. And a list of licensed premises. PS. We've done this before. Most pubs don't serve food.
It’s pretty rare to find a pub down here that serves no food. There are plenty that serve shit/mediocre food, and plenty that serve really good food. But no fooders are unusual.
Here is the link. Although it's from 2018. I appreciate there is a difference between food led and no food, but as others have shown a substantial meal is legally defined.
There are far more spit and sawdust pubs out there than many appreciate. Not for long I imagine. And, as @ManchesterKurt points out, going for a night on the piss is an entirely different endeavour to having 3 pints with a meal. And attracts entirely different clientele.
There’s clearly a regional effect. I have said before that it’s much harder to find a good pub serving proper food from a proper kitchen up north than it is down here. There are of course fantastic exceptions (e,g. The Feathers at Stocksfield and Miss Cyclefree Jr’s gaff in the Lakes!)
But, as a rule, pubs are much better down south and the general availability and standard of food is superior to the north.
But all of that depends on whether you go to a pub primarily to eat or to drink. Personally I go to drink. And for that they are better up North. Cheaper and nicer ale. And they are screwed by this. Royally.
Shanghai airport is plunged into chaos after a 'worker tested positive for Covid-19 prompting Hazmat-clad staff to herd THOUSANDS of people into basement for testing before they make bid for freedom'
I think by the time we get to most of the "difficult" cases i.e. not with a GP, not in employment, not on local authorities lists for services etc, if there are 3 vaccines of which the AZ we will basically have masses of supply of, I suspect you will be able to book a shot at a centre in the way you can with a COVID test at the moment.
The main thing for the next 3-4 months it to get all the oldies and people with serious conditions done and between GPs and local authority records, that will cover the vast vast majority in the same way as the food parcel system did for those shielding.
3-4 months is too long. That is exactly why people should be allowed to see each-other at Christmas.
In the North East we've not been allowed to see people outside our household, inside, since 18th September. That's 2 months already. By Christmas it will be 3 months.
If it takes 6 months to see each other safely, so be it. Whatever the Government thinks up, nobody in my extended family is socialising over Christmas. An 80% chance of a pleasant day with a, say, 2% chance of ione of us dying from it? No thanks. We're not 4 years old - we can wait.
As I was saying in the previous thread, how "close" do some of you think this vaccine actually is?
Based on the timetable @TheScreamingEagles speculated last week, we're talking 6 months+.
It's not a "matter of weeks" before we have all vulnerable people vaccinated.
I feel expectations need to be seriously managed.
Don't forget that R comes down with the number vaccinated. I wouldn't be surprised if we were giving 100,000 people a week a jab by the end of the year, and 1m by the end of January.
While the vaccine programme will likely continue until next autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest restrictions were removed by Easter.
I would love that to be the case, but is that realistic? That suggests a slick logistic operation. I'm not holding my breath. There's only 6 weeks until the end of the year and none of the vaccines are even approved yet.
The Pfizer vaccine will be approved PDQ I think.
Their emergency approval request will be considered on the 10th December. That leaves 3 weeks until the end of 2020. So how on earth will we be vaccinating 100,000 people per week by the end of those 3 weeks?
You're confusing FDA approval (10 December) with UK approval (probably this week).
The first people to get it are going to be medical staff, and hospitals already have all the facilities to keep medicines cold, and give lots of people injections.
100,000/week is also simply not that many. Let's assume there are 50 teaching hospitals that will be doing this. Suddenly, we're only talking about 2,000 week. That's a couple of hundred people per hospital per day.
I can't even telephone my GP at the best of times. What makes people think GPs will be able to handle demand for the C-19 vaccine? Some people aren't even registered with a GP.
Will it be done centrally? If so, isn't that a different system to the flu vaccine one?
Can't speak for everywhere, but what's happening in my borough is that they're setting up vaccination centres in each town, working with the borough council - we've recommended suitable buildings according to their specs (as I recall - all ground floor, separate entry and exit possible, a loo and kitchen for the staff and a waiting area). GPs are providing info and may well send the invites, but the centres are not GP surgeries. Retired GPs and nurses are being recruited to help run them. The intention is that the centres will run as long as needed, e.g. for 6-12 months.
We'll see, but the operation has a generally competent air about it, and that's not somrething I often say of the Government's efforts. We've got a few weeks before the vaccines start coming through, I'd think, and the centres will be ready by then.
As I was saying in the previous thread, how "close" do some of you think this vaccine actually is?
Based on the timetable @TheScreamingEagles speculated last week, we're talking 6 months+.
It's not a "matter of weeks" before we have all vulnerable people vaccinated.
I feel expectations need to be seriously managed.
Don't forget that R comes down with the number vaccinated. I wouldn't be surprised if we were giving 100,000 people a week a jab by the end of the year, and 1m by the end of January.
While the vaccine programme will likely continue until next autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest restrictions were removed by Easter.
I would love that to be the case, but is that realistic? That suggests a slick logistic operation. I'm not holding my breath. There's only 6 weeks until the end of the year and none of the vaccines are even approved yet.
The Pfizer vaccine will be approved PDQ I think.
Their emergency approval request will be considered on the 10th December. That leaves 3 weeks until the end of 2020. So how on earth will we be vaccinating 100,000 people per week by the end of those 3 weeks?
The logistics don't care which vaccine is approved. It is pretty much the same for all.
Does the storage temperature requirement not determine a factor of complexity @Foxy?
It comes packed in dry ice (which lasts for around three weeks). After opening, you move it to a normal refrigerator from the dry ice container, where it's stable for another five days.
This might be an issue for distribution to the third world, but it's not really any more serious a set of requirements than for varicella (i.e. chicken pox) vaccines.
I really hope you optimists are right that we're going to execute the vaccination program perfectly.
Just based on the track record...
There's a vaccine program ever year that reaches tens of millions.
And how long does it take to plan and organise?
Probably not long since they just use last year's plan. It's not as if they have to reinvent the wheel for this.
Except they do. Once you exhaust the list of those who get notified about flu jabs, how do you vaccinate everyone else? You're going to have to have a system where people 'request' them as not everyone has a GP. Not everyone is known to the health system.
There is not a register of everyone, along with their age and up-to-date contact details, is there?
But the more people you vaccinate, the fewer people there are to spread the virus.
Remember almost a quarter of cases in the UK come from people in hospital: if you just vaccinate hospital employees and other long-term residents you cut R down by a fifth without doing anything else.
Her statement earlier that the CIA and Governor Kemp of Georgia had been bribed by Venezuela was pretty obviously libellous. Even Trump isn't that crazy.
NOT libelous under US libel law - as per the Sullivan decision. In US, it is VERY difficult to libel a public official. because in addition to proving a statement to be false, in case of public figures must also prove malice.
Her statement earlier that the CIA and Governor Kemp of Georgia had been bribed by Venezuela was pretty obviously libellous. Even Trump isn't that crazy.
NOT libelous under US libel law - as per the Sullivan decision. In US, it is VERY difficult to libel a public official. because in addition to proving a statement to be false, in case of public figures must also prove malice.
Her statement earlier that the CIA and Governor Kemp of Georgia had been bribed by Venezuela was pretty obviously libellous. Even Trump isn't that crazy.
NOT libelous under US libel law - as per the Sullivan decision. In US, it is VERY difficult to libel a public official. because in addition to proving a statement to be false, in case of public figures must also prove malice.
Her statement earlier that the CIA and Governor Kemp of Georgia had been bribed by Venezuela was pretty obviously libellous. Even Trump isn't that crazy.
NOT libelous under US libel law - as per the Sullivan decision. In US, it is VERY difficult to libel a public official. because in addition to proving a statement to be false, in case of public figures must also prove malice.
Well. That's mad.
NOT mad, instead very good law. In fact, one of the milestones of freedom of the press in America. It prevents public officials for suing people for criticizing their official actions, which is why SCOTUS made the ruling in the first place, in NYT v Sullivan.
As I was saying in the previous thread, how "close" do some of you think this vaccine actually is?
Based on the timetable @TheScreamingEagles speculated last week, we're talking 6 months+.
It's not a "matter of weeks" before we have all vulnerable people vaccinated.
I feel expectations need to be seriously managed.
Don't forget that R comes down with the number vaccinated. I wouldn't be surprised if we were giving 100,000 people a week a jab by the end of the year, and 1m by the end of January.
While the vaccine programme will likely continue until next autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest restrictions were removed by Easter.
I would love that to be the case, but is that realistic? That suggests a slick logistic operation. I'm not holding my breath. There's only 6 weeks until the end of the year and none of the vaccines are even approved yet.
The Pfizer vaccine will be approved PDQ I think.
Their emergency approval request will be considered on the 10th December. That leaves 3 weeks until the end of 2020. So how on earth will we be vaccinating 100,000 people per week by the end of those 3 weeks?
You're confusing FDA approval (10 December) with UK approval (probably this week).
The first people to get it are going to be medical staff, and hospitals already have all the facilities to keep medicines cold, and give lots of people injections.
100,000/week is also simply not that many. Let's assume there are 50 teaching hospitals that will be doing this. Suddenly, we're only talking about 2,000 week. That's a couple of hundred people per hospital per day.
Do you know anything about the US approval process? Someone on my twitters was saying that the wait until December 10th is purely bureaucratic, because that's when the relevant committee is next scheduled to meet. This sounds astonishingly mad - do you know if it's true?
That is genuinely scary - how deluded and dangerous must she be?
But WELL compensated, just like Rudy & the rest. Which is clearly their chief motivation at this stage.
Which explains their their PT Barnum approach to milking the lunatic fringe while the circus is still in town.
I heard Rudy's rate is $20k per day.
There was a similar situation during the 2004 Governor's race in WA State. During the 2nd recount, one of the leading lawyers for Republican Dino Rossi made a big splash in the media & courts with various legal actions that went nowhere. (NOT as outrageous as current Trumpkyite efforts but then that's a VERY low bar!)
Republican partisans were highly pleased by her actions. UNTIL they discovered that she sent a WHOPPING big bill to the WA State GOP for her legal services.
Chumps were under impression that she was working pro bono. Instead, she got the pro . . . and they got the bono . . .
All the "Not my president" stuff was embarrassing, childish temper tantrums and all those people should be ashamed. The difference this time is that it is the candidate doing it.
Great politics (not)...take all the negative hits for saving your minister, then reshuffle them away...
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
Great politics (not)...take all the negative hits for saving your minister, then reshuffle them away...
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
No, you will still have to wear facemasks in shops and you will not be able to go to pubs or restaurants to eat in if in Tier 3 over the Christmas period only to get a takeaway and you will not be able to go just to have a drink without food in Tier 2 either
Messaging.....
Yes the messaging is you cannot go to the pub unless to eat or get a takeaway and you can go back to the shops but only with a mask, most of those same shops rely on the Christmas sales for much of their annual revenue, without that they go bust and we end up with virtually no economy at all bar Amazon
No it isn't. The headlines are all rules relaxed for Christmas....people don't read the small print and as the media constantly remind us everything is too confusing.
Possibly the most irresponsible set of headlines of the whole crisis.
Great politics (not)...take all the negative hits for saving your minister, then reshuffle them away...
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
The reason for stuffing the Cabinet with Leavers was to give Boris political cover for whatever Brexit deal is cooked up, or indeed cocked up. He still needs Priti inside the tent pissing out.
Great politics (not)...take all the negative hits for saving your minister, then reshuffle them away...
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
As I was saying in the previous thread, how "close" do some of you think this vaccine actually is?
Based on the timetable @TheScreamingEagles speculated last week, we're talking 6 months+.
It's not a "matter of weeks" before we have all vulnerable people vaccinated.
I feel expectations need to be seriously managed.
Don't forget that R comes down with the number vaccinated. I wouldn't be surprised if we were giving 100,000 people a week a jab by the end of the year, and 1m by the end of January.
While the vaccine programme will likely continue until next autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if the biggest restrictions were removed by Easter.
I would love that to be the case, but is that realistic? That suggests a slick logistic operation. I'm not holding my breath. There's only 6 weeks until the end of the year and none of the vaccines are even approved yet.
The Pfizer vaccine will be approved PDQ I think.
Their emergency approval request will be considered on the 10th December. That leaves 3 weeks until the end of 2020. So how on earth will we be vaccinating 100,000 people per week by the end of those 3 weeks?
You're confusing FDA approval (10 December) with UK approval (probably this week).
The first people to get it are going to be medical staff, and hospitals already have all the facilities to keep medicines cold, and give lots of people injections.
100,000/week is also simply not that many. Let's assume there are 50 teaching hospitals that will be doing this. Suddenly, we're only talking about 2,000 week. That's a couple of hundred people per hospital per day.
The first 10m people are going to be pretty easy to find - they’re in hospitals, care homes and have social workers already.
Great politics (not)...take all the negative hits for saving your minister, then reshuffle them away...
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
So last week he was telling everyone to rally around her, and now he’s moving her on anyway? How to win friends and influence people!
Who’s actually running the show now Cummings and Cain have departed?
I’ll give Johnson six months at this point.
Its not like Johnson hasn't already pissed off loads of his MPs. How many have gone out to bat for the government over things like the holiday meals and then he U-Turns and leaves them hanging out there like heartless bastards.
Betfair odds Trump 24 25 Republicans 22 23. Time to lay republicans instead of trump? Maybe all the sensible money has moved to something more lucrative?
I hadn’t realised the significance of the use it or lose it problem with the AZN vaccine once it’s formulated for distribution.
... Because of the trial delays, AZ’s projected timeline for a vaccine authorization was also extended. To ensure the final product enjoys maximum shelf life as doses are rolled out in mass vaccination campaigns, AZ decided to postpone its delivery to governments, Soriot said.
... AZN has already produced a bulk vaccine that’s kept at freezing temperatures. The shelf life clock starts ticking once that frozen drug substance moves into the formulation phase of production, Pam Cheng, the company's head of operations and IT, said.
The company is ready to provide finished commercial products, Cheng said. “However, we really must be thoughtful on how much we progress to the final product stage,” she said. “We want to have maximum shelf life upon regulatory approval around the world.”
At this point, it’s better to keep the vaccine in that frozen state because it can be stored for longer. After getting positive data from clinical trials, AZ can start “massively filling vials, and we’ll be ready to supply hundreds of millions of doses starting January next year,” Soriot told reporters.
It seems quite likely that the technology will be the mainstay of rapid response vaccines in the future.
It was originally developed for other therapies, but because it provokes an immune response those programs were abandoned. It’s not well appreciated that our rapidly developed solutions to Covid rely on technologies which had been a long time in development before the virus was ever heard of.
Great politics (not)...take all the negative hits for saving your minister, then reshuffle them away...
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
So last week he was telling everyone to rally around her, and now he’s moving her on anyway? How to win friends and influence people!
Who’s actually running the show now Cummings and Cain have departed?
I’ll give Johnson six months at this point.
Ummmm: also, maybe it's because I'm in America, but what asylum crisis?
Personally, I wouldn't have had her back after the whole lying to the Prime Minister twice thing, but if you're going to weather the f*cking storm, then weather the storm.
The story seems to be that the GOP leadership has finally been moved to act after she began promoting a conspiracy theory that the Governor of Georgia was bribed to nobble the Dominion voting machines in his state ... and that this had the knock on effect of ensuring that Loeffler finished ahead of Doug Collins in the special Senate race. In other words Kemp fixed the machines to ensure that one Republican candidate beat the other (the one more favoured by the conspiracy crew). This has then led to a growing campaign on Parler (the new favoured social media site) to boycott the run off election because it's all fixed.
And the GOP have woken up to the fact that there is an enormous chance that it could cost them the Senate.
The extra funny thing is, that now that Powell has been sacked by Trump, it has simply reinforced the conspiracy theorists. They're siding with Powell over Trump.
It’s not just that you’re a crook, Senator. It’s that your supporters are as thick as pigshit.
Great politics (not)...take all the negative hits for saving your minister, then reshuffle them away...
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
Not getting the outrage for or against the Xmas plans for slight relaxation. The plan is agreed by all 4 governments is quite limited in scope whilst providing some much needed practical help for many retailers who depend on Xmas sales. No doubt there will be some degree of uptick in cases but for me it represents a sensible compromise for those keen to see a few extra family members. Worth remembering too that it's an apporoach likely to be mirrored throughout Europe. Finally just because it's allowed it is not compulsory. I'm sure that many lkike myself will still have a more limited home Xmas for two - and enjoy it as a welcome change!
Comments
Just asking for a friend (of Boris's).
https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1330645355587747840
They also managed to get the vast majority of homeless off the streets and into hotels and they definitely aren't as a whole on easy to find "lists".
There is not a register of everyone, along with their age and up-to-date contact details, is there?
Enough vulnerable people have a GP, enough old people have a GP.... to make this model work very well
We do not need 100% vaccinations, this model really will work and hit millions and millions of us, easily enough to give us our freedom back again
You're also missing the point that people will probably need to prove they've had the jab to do certain things.
People will want the jab and they will want it quickly.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1330650627576311812?s=20
The political pressure will be immense if people are having to sit and wait for a letter through the door, hoping they haven't slipped through the cracks.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNjQxMTI5NTEtYzlkNi00MzljLWE0OGItNGVjM2QwNjAzZGQ0IiwidCI6IjUwZjYwNzFmLWJiZmUtNDAxYS04ODAzLTY3Mzc0OGU2MjllMiIsImMiOjh9
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/11/22/trump-campaign-cuts-ties-with-lawyer-sidney-powell-who-promoted-wild-election-fraud-conspiracy-theories/
The main thing for the next 3-4 months it to get all the oldies and people with serious conditions done and between GPs and local authority records, that will cover the vast vast majority in the same way as the food parcel system did for those shielding.
I think supply is going to be the biggest factor.
Never part of the Trump team - oh no!
Oh...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327811527123103746?s=20
https://twitter.com/Max_Gorden/status/1329945642026684418?s=20
In the North East we've not been allowed to see people outside our household, inside, since 18th September. That's 2 months already. By Christmas it will be 3 months.
Even Trump isn't that crazy.
Let alone a Christmas dinner with several households of relatives staying on for 5 days afterwards, something our PM seems to think is perfectly OK.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-even-a-small-thanksgiving-is-dangerous/
And the GOP have woken up to the fact that there is an enormous chance that it could cost them the Senate.
The extra funny thing is, that now that Powell has been sacked by Trump, it has simply reinforced the conspiracy theorists. They're siding with Powell over Trump.
PS. We've done this before. Most pubs don't serve food.
"Hillary Clinton says Biden should not concede the election 'under any circumstances'
The former Democratic presidential nominee predicted Republicans could try to “mess up absentee balloting” for a narrow advantage in the Electoral College."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/hillary-clinton-says-biden-should-not-concede-2020-election-under-n1238156
But then the Lakes is a bit of a foodie destination.
Custom will drop right off
I appreciate there is a difference between food led and no food, but as others have shown a substantial meal is legally defined.
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2018/04/18/How-many-food-led-pubs-are-there
There are far more spit and sawdust pubs out there than many appreciate. Not for long I imagine. And, as @ManchesterKurt points out, going for a night on the piss is an entirely different endeavour to having 3 pints with a meal.
And attracts entirely different clientele.
Or "actions and their effects" as it is more accurately described.
But, as a rule, pubs are much better down south and the general availability and standard of food is superior to the north.
It’s a relentless bleeding of the business. Hard to see how it can survive until April let alone next summer, if that’s how long the restrictions go on for.
And God knows what Brexit will mean, if there are food shortages or higher prices.
Personally I go to drink. And for that they are better up North. Cheaper and nicer ale.
And they are screwed by this. Royally.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8975853/Shanghai-airport-plunged-chaos-worker-tests-positive-Covid.html
See
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?ncid=newsltukhpmgpols
The first people to get it are going to be medical staff, and hospitals already have all the facilities to keep medicines cold, and give lots of people injections.
100,000/week is also simply not that many. Let's assume there are 50 teaching hospitals that will be doing this. Suddenly, we're only talking about 2,000 week. That's a couple of hundred people per hospital per day.
We'll see, but the operation has a generally competent air about it, and that's not somrething I often say of the Government's efforts. We've got a few weeks before the vaccines start coming through, I'd think, and the centres will be ready by then.
This might be an issue for distribution to the third world, but it's not really any more serious a set of requirements than for varicella (i.e. chicken pox) vaccines.
Remember almost a quarter of cases in the UK come from people in hospital: if you just vaccinate hospital employees and other long-term residents you cut R down by a fifth without doing anything else.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Times_Co._v._Sullivan
Which explains their their PT Barnum approach to milking the lunatic fringe while the circus is still in town.
Instead of 30 million doses of AZD1222, the U.K. will only receive 4 million this year,
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/astrazeneca-ceo-stresses-covid-19-vaccine-manufacturing-maneuvering-as-it-misses
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/802142698937479168?s=21
Republican partisans were highly pleased by her actions. UNTIL they discovered that she sent a WHOPPING big bill to the WA State GOP for her legal services.
Chumps were under impression that she was working pro bono. Instead, she got the pro . . . and they got the bono . . .
Boris Johnson 'will DEMOTE Priti Patel over asylum crisis': Under-fire Home Secretary is predicted to be made Tory chairman in reshuffle following bullying row
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8976281/Boris-Johnson-demote-Priti-Patel-Home-Secretary-predicted-Tory-chairman.html
Weatherspoons a gastopub.
Most people just read it as:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=cWgwTe01kMU
Let’s hope the government ministers are somewhat more reserved in their statements.
Biden 1.04
Democrats 1.04
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.04
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.04
Trump ECV 210-239 1.07
Biden ECV 300-329 1.07
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.04
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.06
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02
AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.04
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.03
PA Dem 1.03
WI Dem 1.04
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.1
Trump exit date 2021 1.08
Who’s actually running the show now Cummings and Cain have departed?
I’ll give Johnson six months at this point.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/mrna-vaccines-covid-signal-new-era-disease-prevention-science
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spM_GasGLkQ
... Because of the trial delays, AZ’s projected timeline for a vaccine authorization was also extended. To ensure the final product enjoys maximum shelf life as doses are rolled out in mass vaccination campaigns, AZ decided to postpone its delivery to governments, Soriot said.
... AZN has already produced a bulk vaccine that’s kept at freezing temperatures. The shelf life clock starts ticking once that frozen drug substance moves into the formulation phase of production, Pam Cheng, the company's head of operations and IT, said.
The company is ready to provide finished commercial products, Cheng said. “However, we really must be thoughtful on how much we progress to the final product stage,” she said. “We want to have maximum shelf life upon regulatory approval around the world.”
At this point, it’s better to keep the vaccine in that frozen state because it can be stored for longer. After getting positive data from clinical trials, AZ can start “massively filling vials, and we’ll be ready to supply hundreds of millions of doses starting January next year,” Soriot told reporters.
It was originally developed for other therapies, but because it provokes an immune response those programs were abandoned.
It’s not well appreciated that our rapidly developed solutions to Covid rely on technologies which had been a long time in development before the virus was ever heard of.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/antony-blinken-secretary-of-state-439513
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/526947-women-set-to-take-key-roles-in-biden-administration
https://twitter.com/leloveluck/status/1330740337439072257
Personally, I wouldn't have had her back after the whole lying to the Prime Minister twice thing, but if you're going to weather the f*cking storm, then weather the storm.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/mass-coronavirus-testing-to-be-rolled-out-in-england-to-head-off-tory-revolt
https://twitter.com/dansinker/status/1330734048357076994