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Increased geography. Devolution, independence, and Brexit – politicalbetting.com
Increased geography. Devolution, independence, and Brexit – politicalbetting.com
I have been a disappointment to many people. One niche group emerged in 2012, when my previous firm, Pinsent Masons, merged with the largest Scottish firm McGrigors. For some time afterwards, whenever I met one of my new Scottish partners, I could see the faint shrinking when they realised that, despite my given name, I’m as English as they come. They were always kind to the afflicted, of course, but a sense of the closest kinship would take much more earning.
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Alastair was undecided about which way to vote in the referendum when it was first called, along with a couple of others (TSE and Richard Nabavi I think). So much so, that if you fancied a treble on them all eventually backing Remain, bookmakers were offering odds of nearly 1.01
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1328740302857904130?s=19
Chased down the favourite at the last.
‘SHUT THE FECK UP.’
Now he looks dishonest as well stupid.
He is, of course, but it’s not helpful to look it.
CM: "Boris, hi, Charles here. Still waiting for your column, it was due by 8 this morning?"
BJ: "Charlie hi waffwarwerra hi, what's that old chap?"
CM: "The copy for this week's column, it's late. Heavy night last night, Boris?"
BJ: "Yes, Charlie [sniffing sound]"
CM: "You have written it, Boris, haven't you?"
BJ: "Oh yes yes [sniffing again]. Tried to send it last night, bloody modem playing up I expect. I'll have it with you by 12. Bye"
...
BJ: "Petronella! Get us an egg roll will you? I've got a shitting headache and a column to write.
Right. Scotland. Hmmm. We'll start with 'Och aye' and see how it goes from there..."
Not this one.
To win the Tories not only had to beat the left/centre left, it had to neutralise the Brexit party. The Tory's opponents had an open goal as the Tories were forced to the right and completely missed it. A point SKS has now conceded.
That we are where we are is partly the fault of the Tories but the anti Brexit establishment carries huge responsibility too.
https://twitter.com/SidneyPowell1/status/1328592300398743553
If Trump had got re-elected, people like this would have been heading to Federal courts, perhaps even SCOTUS. Four more years of Trump and Alito would look like a pretty centrist kind of judge.
If you insist on othering all those who disagree with you, one inevitably finds you have turned the majority against you.
No doubt by chance, there has been a steady rise in support in Scotland for independence in recent years. "
The problem with this narrative is that support for Scottish secession was relatively stable in the aftermath of the EU referendum; in fact, if anything, support for secession actually fell, and didn't recover until mid 2018 while Theresa May was being hamstrung by Parliament. Even as late as early 2020, when the UK formally left the EU, No still had a substantial lead over Yes:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmoBo77XIAI00dl?format=png&name=4096x4096
The current surge in support for secession has a lot more to do with the perceived incompetence of Johnson and the Westminster government than it does with Brexit - or we would have seen the surge four years ago.
There are plenty of Leavers, including a few on here, who are very happy with the idea of Scottish Independence and for thoroughly positive reasons. For us Scottish Independence is a natural and welcome consequence of Brexit and stems from the same arguments in favour of self determination as drove the desire to leave the EU. We are not Unionists - either of the EU or British variety and therefore see any move towards dissolution of the Union as a positive step.
If people could stop squabbling about trivia now would be an excellent time to sort it. The guns have been put away in Ireland, and the sense in Britain of sharing a single island is palpable. Go for it.
Unfortunately the current government in Westminster seem not to understand that choice.
It's not obvious when it will end (though the antics of the last week have moved the clock on there), but it is obvious that being finally caught out having promised different people different things will be how it ends.
Still, irrespective of the personalities and the blunders of the current government, the route to regaining Scottish support for the Union can't primarily lie through the Conservative Party. This would be the case even if we still had a sensible One Nation Conservative as PM, and Ruth Davidson as leader of the Scottish Conservatives. In recent years, the party has at best been a relatively minor player in Scottish politics, and even in the most optimistic scenario for the Conservatives, that won't improve. More likely it will get much worse.
That leaves Scottish Labour as the only potentially viable alternative to the Brexit-like irrationality of the SNP, who (like the ERG) nonchalantly wave away the very serious practical difficulties and economic consequences of separation, in pursuit of a chimera of sovereignty which can never be real in the modern interconnected world. In multiple ways, Scottish independence has become hugely more difficult even than it seemed to be in 2014. Brexit is the most obvious of these - an English-Scottish hard border, anyone? But it's not the only one: the collapse in the oil price, the acceleration of the long-term move away from oil, the worldwide economic crisis caused by Covid-19, are all part of the deteriorating environment for going it alone.
Sadly, there is little sign that a coherent and well-supported pro-union movement, which can only be based on Scottish Labour, is coming anytime soon. No doubt Keir Starmer is aware of this, but it's not clear what he can do about it (although edging out Richard Leonard would be a start). Even the old Scottish Labour big beasts, like Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling, seem incapable of slowing the SNP bandwagon.
I fear that Scotland is going to add one more to the series of catastrophic decisions which the UK has blundered into since 2016. It's unlikely to end well for Scotland, or for the UK as a whole.
https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed
And you have to remember that (a) Brexit has n ot happened edit: in a very real sense, of practgical impact; and (b) is still crucially undefined. What is going to happen? Nobody knows.
If you have actual practical reasons why the union is good for all people within it lets hear them. Don't tell me about history or geology
(For myself I don't agree with their policy - I am a 'Norway for Now' leaver and hope that Labour (and the SNP) will soon see its merits. It won't be before time.)
Current Betfair prices:-
Biden 1.06
Democrats 1.06
Biden PV 1.04
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.05
Trump ECV 210-239 1.08
Biden ECV 300-329 1.08
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.05
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02
AZ Dem 1.06
GA Dem 1.06
MI Dem 1.04
NV Dem 1.04
PA Dem 1.05
WI Dem 1.06
(And it was the specification of the basalt being metamorphic that is hard to satisfy in the UK IIRC - dykes obviously don't count).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbressan/2020/11/03/how-us-presidential-elections-are-impacted-by-geology/
The fact that the clown is now flailing around trying to pin the blame on Blair and the events of nearly two decades ago for the consequences of his own career-obsessed decisions much more recently, is all the evidence we need that he knows the damage that he has done.
In a democracy each vote has a value. The bigger the demos the lower the value. This is why we find people believing that their vote does not matter.
The overarching federalised part only handling trade, foreign policy and defence.
https://nickyoder.com/in-defense-of-polling/
Interesting anyway, and contains the nugget that "Exactly 50% of voters had supported Kennedy for President in 1960, but asked after his assassination in 1963, 65% of voters claimed to have voted for Kennedy."
The latest polling shows 38% of respondents saying Leave was the right decision, and you can bet your bottom dollar that anything up to half of them were whistling in the dark on the basis that it's over six weeks before it turns from a potential into an actual disaster, and who knows what might turn up in six weeks? When nothing does, their rage at Johnson is not going to be tempered by the fact that this is what they voted for. In practice I would expect this to translate into an increase in English support for Scottish independence, on the basis that it makes sense for anyone with access to a lifeboat, to use it.
Per Sky News
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1328764490662473728
Not a great move for Labour.
https://twitter.com/andrew_graeme/status/1328741748827426816?s=20
Welcome home Jeremy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww4v2cP-MDo
Trump has no public events on his schedule Tuesday, the 10th time since the election that's been the case, according to CNN's Kevin Liptak. And, as CNN's Kaitlan Collins pointed out, it's been two weeks since the President last took any questions from the reporters who cover him.
I think had I been in their shoes I would have readmitted him only if he had agreed to take the Chiltern Hundreds first.
Sad.