I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
There should not have been this lockdown in the first place but closing golf courses FFS - I mean how on earth does the thought process go that thats high risk?
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
On current polling Labour does not need any more Tory voters to deny the Tories another majority, however they still need significantly more Tory voters to get a Labour majority, especially if they do not regain large numbers of seats from the SNP in Scotland
I think you've got this the wrong way round.
It starts with adminstrative and governmental competence. Without that Starmer will win by default (despite his faults) because people won't exercise other choices until they know they've got a candidate who can at least do the job.
In fact, that was a big part of why Boris won last year when put next to Corbyn - even though some people were crying whilst doing it.
Next time the tables will be turned which is why the Tories need someone who's demonstrably effective so they can turn the "safe pair of hands" back on Starmer again, which could include common-sense on cultural issues rather than pursuing left-wing identity politics, where Starmer will continue to struggle.
Which means Sunak, Hunt would lose so many voters to Farage he is the only potential Tory leader who could enable a Labour majority next time
I don't think that's true. Hunt could do a Macron.
It's policy and effectiveness that will determine whether he'll lose voters to Farage. May only started to shed to him because she'd failed to get Brexit done, and we had to suffer the farce of another round of EU Parliament elections as a result.
Macron is the centre left liberal candidate in France, Fillon was the centre right candidate and in 2017 was overtaken on the right by Le Pen, on that comparison Starmer would win in 2024, Farage would come second and Hunt's Tories would collapse to third
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
On current polling Labour does not need any more Tory voters to deny the Tories another majority, however they still need significantly more Tory voters to get a Labour majority, especially if they do not regain large numbers of seats from the SNP in Scotland
I think you've got this the wrong way round.
It starts with adminstrative and governmental competence. Without that Starmer will win by default (despite his faults) because people won't exercise other choices until they know they've got a candidate who can at least do the job.
In fact, that was a big part of why Boris won last year when put next to Corbyn - even though some people were crying whilst doing it.
Next time the tables will be turned which is why the Tories need someone who's demonstrably effective so they can turn the "safe pair of hands" back on Starmer again, which could include common-sense on cultural issues rather than pursuing left-wing identity politics, where Starmer will continue to struggle.
Which means Sunak, Hunt would lose so many voters to Farage he is the only potential Tory leader who could enable a Labour majority next time
I don't think that's true. Hunt could do a Macron.
It's policy and effectiveness that will determine whether he'll lose voters to Farage. May only started to shed to him because she'd failed to get Brexit done, and we had to suffer the farce of another round of EU Parliament elections as a result.
So, Google Surveys will do a 1 question poll for me at 11 pence per response.
Who would like some private polling for the Georgia Run Off elections?
Will it be a 100% return for the 'mind your own business you nosey bastard' party?
I was going to use it to do some comedy Scottish independence polling (open with a leading question) but to get a 2 question survey targetted down to Scotland cost a pound per response!
If you just want a question asked over the whole USA it is a mere 8 pence per response.
One question for Scotland please: Salmond or Sturgeon?
I'm surprised you want to waste money on that question.
Edit: not your money, of course.
This (did the Sturgeon faction conspire to royally stitch up Salmond over the sex claims?) is perhaps the most contentious and potentially explosive matter in Scottish Politics right now. And it's not my money.
We know the answer to that one ............ Gold Plated YES
I know its predicated on the situation being different, but for the same reason I thought Boris would win if he got past the MPs, I can't see Hunt winning unless it's a coronation or moderate (or at least more standard) fix. Granted, the labour membership went for the sensible option right after Corbyn, but Corbyn lost and left, Boris going would be before a GE defeat and clearly forced on him, his supporters would be livid.
I think hes going nowhere.
I don't agree with this because his supporters are no longer his supporters - I've been speaking to a few recently; Boris is rapidly running out of road.
I think everyone is still focussed on fighting the last war and, like my header points out, assuming Boris's successor must be someone suitably tub-thumping and hardcore.
Sensible Tories will see the need for competent stable Government after Boris and all the drama and uncertainty of recent years - it'll be their only chance to win in GE2024 - and remember the membership elected Cameron over Davis and (as WilliamGlenn reminded me) were more tempted by May than Johnson in 2016.
Good article and the party could do worse than Hunt but to be fair I cannot see past Rishi at present
The more I think about Sunak the more doubts I have about him.
You are right to have doubts about him. He keeps getting it wrong and he keeps having to change his strategy - but not before he has inflicted significant damage to businesses, cost people their jobs and damaged the government's credibility.
We laid off over 40 people in September in anticipation of the furlough scheme ending in October. It turns out we did not have to do that.
The difference with Rishi is that he recognises the mistake which is more than can be said for basically all other politicians. The 67% furlough was a mistake, it's been rectified, though as you say a bit later than he should have. Very few politicians admit wrongness, and that's something the Chancellor has done on quite a few instances which is a value I appreciate.
The no 1 problem Hunt has is that a large chunk of the MPs who backed him last time are no longer MPs. e.g. Gauke, Stewart, Liddington
I think people overlook how much the centre of gravity in the parliamentary party shifted at the last election - not only in terms of Brexit but geography. If we look at the number of Con MPs by region:
London - 21 (out of 73) South East - 73 (84) South West - 48 (55) Eastern - 52 (58) East Mids - 38 (46) West Mids - 44 (59) Yorkshire - 26 (54) North West - 32 (75) North East - 10 (29) Wales - 14 (40) Scotland - 6 (59)
So in % terms (compared with 2017)
London - 6% (7%) Rest of South - 47% (53%) Midlands - 22% (21%) North - 19% (13%) Devolved nations - 5% (6%)
So while London and SE still have a narrow majority of MPs, this has reduced from 2017, with the North being the main gainer.
Woke is just a term used to be racist or sexist, or generally horrible that is still acceptable.
Watching fox news for a few days, their guests are actually mostly in favour of legalising cannabis. Its inevitable in the US and where they lead on this Europe will follow. Prohibition has failed. Bigly.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Everyone’s just desperate to (legally) leave the house, and all the Govt restrictions have done is massively reduce the areas where everyone can go. Whether inside (non essential shops - never busy but now shut - pushing larger numbers into the shops now open) or outside (shutting perfectly safe outdoor leisure sites - golf, zoos, theme parks) and pushing larger numbers into the parks.
So simultaneously killing business and economic activity whilst increasing likelihood of killing people!
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
The golf situation seems crazy, not that I really play golf often. How can two mates walking round a course be ok, but if they play golf it's dangerous? (apart from no one getting hit by a ball/angrily thrown club)
God, reading Tim Shipman in The Sunday Times today; it's no wonder there's such a serious culture war going on in the USA right now and why Trump got so many votes.
If what I read of Biden's aides is representative then I expect almost all his efforts to reach out across the divide to fail and he'll be in real trouble inside 18 months.
Yet the larger failure is that of rightwing “culture war” politics whose ultra-bellicose and previously most successful champion has lost the US presidency by the thumping margin of more than 4m votes.
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
On current polling Labour does not need any more Tory voters to deny the Tories another majority, however they still need significantly more Tory voters to get a Labour majority, especially if they do not regain large numbers of seats from the SNP in Scotland
I think you've got this the wrong way round.
It starts with adminstrative and governmental competence. Without that Starmer will win by default (despite his faults) because people won't exercise other choices until they know they've got a candidate who can at least do the job.
In fact, that was a big part of why Boris won last year when put next to Corbyn - even though some people were crying whilst doing it.
Next time the tables will be turned which is why the Tories need someone who's demonstrably effective so they can turn the "safe pair of hands" back on Starmer again, which could include common-sense on cultural issues rather than pursuing left-wing identity politics, where Starmer will continue to struggle.
Which means Sunak, Hunt would lose so many voters to Farage he is the only potential Tory leader who could enable a Labour majority next time
I don't think that's true. Hunt could do a Macron.
It's policy and effectiveness that will determine whether he'll lose voters to Farage. May only started to shed to him because she'd failed to get Brexit done, and we had to suffer the farce of another round of EU Parliament elections as a result.
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
On current polling Labour does not need any more Tory voters to deny the Tories another majority, however they still need significantly more Tory voters to get a Labour majority, especially if they do not regain large numbers of seats from the SNP in Scotland
I think you've got this the wrong way round.
It starts with adminstrative and governmental competence. Without that Starmer will win by default (despite his faults) because people won't exercise other choices until they know they've got a candidate who can at least do the job.
In fact, that was a big part of why Boris won last year when put next to Corbyn - even though some people were crying whilst doing it.
Next time the tables will be turned which is why the Tories need someone who's demonstrably effective so they can turn the "safe pair of hands" back on Starmer again, which could include common-sense on cultural issues rather than pursuing left-wing identity politics, where Starmer will continue to struggle.
Which means Sunak, Hunt would lose so many voters to Farage he is the only potential Tory leader who could enable a Labour majority next time
I don't think that's true. Hunt could do a Macron.
It's policy and effectiveness that will determine whether he'll lose voters to Farage. May only started to shed to him because she'd failed to get Brexit done, and we had to suffer the farce of another round of EU Parliament elections as a result.
Macron is the centre left liberal candidate in France, Fillon was the centre right candidate and in 2017 was overtaken on the right by Le Pen, on that comparison Starmer would win in 2024, Farage would come second and Hunt's Tories would collapse to third
Have you spotted how Macron is positioning himself recently?
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
Brexit will be over next year. It's then irrelevant and about the challenges of the future on which Hunt is very well placed.
I think you're too hung up on the mistake you made in backing Boris and have a blind spot for Hunt because you think his election would somehow be a vindication of those who've criticised you for it all along.
Re Mr Hunt, has anyone raised the question of what happens if there is an inquiry into the pox which looks at his track record on related matters and decides he messed up big time while in charge of the NHS? Exercise Cygnus, and so on. Not saying he did, just that IIRC the question was raised some months back, or am I being unfair?
Not unfair at all, and the lack of PPE stocks is probably the single strongest criticism. But the running down of public health capacity, for example, goes back a long way. Previous Labour governments included.
To Hunt’s credit, he appears to have learned something from his mistakes. I don’t think that will help him in the leadership stakes, though.
speaking of PPE, my wife is part way through her return to practise nursing course. She is working on a non-covid ward but they've had to take covid+ patients as the hospital has I think over 20% more cases than the spring peak. The qualified nurse told her she only needed basic PPE and she was in the bay 2 hours before somebody told her she needed the full kit (which she hasnt even been measured for). She is fuming, as am I. The nurse she worked with on Thursday has tested +ve. This only happened this morning so just keeping fingers crossed.
That’s alarming indeed. I hope it goes OK for you.
Same here Nigel, hope all goes well with your wife Paul.
Best PM ratings - among their 2019 voters (current VI)
Johnson: 54 (75) Starmer: 71 (82)
Johnson is well behind Starmer (28 vs 38, OA) and among ABC1 (-17), all age ranges except the 65+ and all geographical areas - even the South (-5), the only area the Tories are ahead of Labour.
"It's only one poll" - but are his fans convinced Johnson is still an asset and not a liability?
Looking back at PB thread headers from eight and a half years ago, when Hunt was having his BSKYB problems (he went from 50/1 to evens overnight in next out of cabinet betting, and Mike ran a poll to see if we thought he’d last the month), the timing coincides with BJ winning London 2nd time, the Leveson enquiry, EdM’s Lab having a record 14 point YouGov lead and Cameron trailing Ed by 10 in the MORI leader ratings (and below Brown’s nadir).
I wonder if Cameron’s fans were confident then that he remained an asset?
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
On current polling Labour does not need any more Tory voters to deny the Tories another majority, however they still need significantly more Tory voters to get a Labour majority, especially if they do not regain large numbers of seats from the SNP in Scotland
I think you've got this the wrong way round.
It starts with adminstrative and governmental competence. Without that Starmer will win by default (despite his faults) because people won't exercise other choices until they know they've got a candidate who can at least do the job.
In fact, that was a big part of why Boris won last year when put next to Corbyn - even though some people were crying whilst doing it.
Next time the tables will be turned which is why the Tories need someone who's demonstrably effective so they can turn the "safe pair of hands" back on Starmer again, which could include common-sense on cultural issues rather than pursuing left-wing identity politics, where Starmer will continue to struggle.
Which means Sunak, Hunt would lose so many voters to Farage he is the only potential Tory leader who could enable a Labour majority next time
I don't think that's true. Hunt could do a Macron.
It's policy and effectiveness that will determine whether he'll lose voters to Farage. May only started to shed to him because she'd failed to get Brexit done, and we had to suffer the farce of another round of EU Parliament elections as a result.
Hunt would need charisma to do a Macron.
He has no more or less than Starmer does.
Not sure that’s true, but either way to do a ‘Macron’ would require considerable charisma that Hunt clearly does not possess.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
No doubt indoor compliance will be more important than outdoor. But from what I can gauge of my neighbours their attitude is "rules are for other people".
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
I hope you have adequate public liability insurance if you intend driving random golf balls in an area not designated for golf
Some years ago my playing partner was hit on the left forehead by a drive from another hole that felled him like a log. I rushed over to him and accompanied him to hospital in the ambulance
Sadly he was never the same after this incident and died a couple of years later
Hitting golf balls is not something to be done irresponsibly
Thanks for the advice, but I had appreciated that. I'm planning to practices my wedges and at most short irons if there's enough space, certainly not a driver. And in practice I won't be hitting balls anywhere near other people, although I hope they will take the hint and keep well away.
Golf courses have to close, but hitting golf balls isn't yet banned. If Johnson wants to emulate King James II of Scotland then he may yet do so, but the latter was only doing so to promote archery.
Why would we need to compromise when as David Davis and Michael Gove say, we hold all the cards and the EU will come begging us for a deal due to our car industry?
We walked away for a grand total of one day before we returned again, why would we come back if we hold all the cards?
Why this change in tone when Biden has just won, is it because he hates Boris Johnson and his undermining of the GFA?
You can rejoin reality if you so wish, we're all routing for you.
Credit to Johnson for doing this but I will say again, he really looks unwell and I worry for his health?
Why didn't he bow properly? That man has no respect.
Its not fkin Japan
Just one day where he needs to show a little respect. It's not asking much, especially compared to the sacrifice made by those who died for our country.
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
Woke is just a term used to be racist or sexist, or generally horrible that is still acceptable.
Watching fox news for a few days, their guests are actually mostly in favour of legalising cannabis. Its inevitable in the US and where they lead on this Europe will follow. Prohibition has failed. Bigly.
It is absolute insanity to encourage profiteering criminals to be the ones selling drugs rather than legal taxpaying regulated businesses.
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
Brexit will be over next year. It's then irrelevant and about the challenges of the future on which Hunt is very well placed.
I think you're too hung up on the mistake you made in backing Boris and have a blind spot for Hunt because you think his election would somehow be a vindication of those who've criticised you for it all along.
Re Mr Hunt, has anyone raised the question of what happens if there is an inquiry into the pox which looks at his track record on related matters and decides he messed up big time while in charge of the NHS? Exercise Cygnus, and so on. Not saying he did, just that IIRC the question was raised some months back, or am I being unfair?
Not unfair at all, and the lack of PPE stocks is probably the single strongest criticism. But the running down of public health capacity, for example, goes back a long way. Previous Labour governments included.
To Hunt’s credit, he appears to have learned something from his mistakes. I don’t think that will help him in the leadership stakes, though.
speaking of PPE, my wife is part way through her return to practise nursing course. She is working on a non-covid ward but they've had to take covid+ patients as the hospital has I think over 20% more cases than the spring peak. The qualified nurse told her she only needed basic PPE and she was in the bay 2 hours before somebody told her she needed the full kit (which she hasnt even been measured for). She is fuming, as am I. The nurse she worked with on Thursday has tested +ve. This only happened this morning so just keeping fingers crossed.
That’s alarming indeed. I hope it goes OK for you.
thank you. she wasn't enjoying it much before today. she just wanted to be a nurse again and she is having to write a 3000 word essay with umpteen references that she will never have to use on a ward. Nurses need to be bright but i don't think they need to be academic.
He looks awful, poor man, I really genuinely fear for his health. To see somebody in this state in such a difficult job is something I wouldn't wish on anyone.
God, reading Tim Shipman in The Sunday Times today; it's no wonder there's such a serious culture war going on in the USA right now and why Trump got so many votes.
If what I read of Biden's aides is representative then I expect almost all his efforts to reach out across the divide to fail and he'll be in real trouble inside 18 months.
Utterly clueless.
Casino on his way to a second meltdown in two days.
Credit to Johnson for doing this but I will say again, he really looks unwell and I worry for his health?
Why didn't he bow properly? That man has no respect.
Its not fkin Japan
Just one day where he needs to show a little respect. It's not asking much, especially compared to the sacrifice made by those who died for our country.
Man has no respect while literally laying a wreath at the cenotaph?
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
Why would we need to compromise when as David Davis and Michael Gove say, we hold all the cards and the EU will come begging us for a deal due to our car industry?
We walked away for a grand total of one day before we returned again, why would we come back if we hold all the cards?
Why this change in tone when Biden has just won, is it because he hates Boris Johnson and his undermining of the GFA?
You can rejoin reality if you so wish, we're all routing for you.
I've always said that a compromise would involve comprises on both sides. I challenge you to ever quote me saying anything else.
We walked away until the EU compromised precisely because we do hold all the cards. As I said at the time if the EU back down and agree to what we want we should resume talks and that's exactly what happened.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Everyone’s just desperate to (legally) leave the house, and all the Govt restrictions have done is massively reduce the areas where everyone can go. Whether inside (non essential shops - never busy but now shut - pushing larger numbers into the shops now open) or outside (shutting perfectly safe outdoor leisure sites - golf, zoos, theme parks) and pushing larger numbers into the parks.
So simultaneously killing business and economic activity whilst increasing likelihood of killing people!
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
The golf situation seems crazy, not that I really play golf often. How can two mates walking round a course be ok, but if they play golf it's dangerous? (apart from no one getting hit by a ball/angrily thrown club)
In March they had public buyin to the “don’t leave the house except for essential purposes”. So closing things like golf courses made some sense (within the overall concept of a ‘lockdown’). This time round they are trying the same line - but the public aren’t having any of it. The public are not interested in the spirit of the rules, only the letter.
And when the Govt has included leaving for the purposes of shopping for essential supplies, exercise or meeting up (with one person) FOR “RECREATION” then really “essential reasons” is out the window. So the Govt should be giving, as a minimum, access to as many outdoor recreational activities as possible.
This is spot on, it's such a shame as Fox seems a decent-ish actor and doesn't come across badly at all, he seems sane and down to Earth. Which makes his support for Trump the ever more depressing.
Credit to Johnson for doing this but I will say again, he really looks unwell and I worry for his health?
Why didn't he bow properly? That man has no respect.
Its not fkin Japan
Just one day where he needs to show a little respect. It's not asking much, especially compared to the sacrifice made by those who died for our country.
Man has no respect while literally laying a wreath at the cenotaph?
He looks awful, poor man, I really genuinely fear for his health. To see somebody in this state in such a difficult job is something I wouldn't wish on anyone.
Did it not occur to him that he should get a haircut before lockdown started?
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
I hope you have adequate public liability insurance if you intend driving random golf balls in an area not designated for golf
Some years ago my playing partner was hit on the left forehead by a drive from another hole that felled him like a log. I rushed over to him and accompanied him to hospital in the ambulance
Sadly he was never the same after this incident and died a couple of years later
Hitting golf balls is not something to be done irresponsibly
Thanks for the advice, but I had appreciated that. I'm planning to practices my wedges and at most short irons if there's enough space, certainly not a driver. And in practice I won't be hitting balls anywhere near other people, although I hope they will take the hint and keep well away.
Golf courses have to close, but hitting golf balls isn't yet banned. If Johnson wants to emulate King James II of Scotland then he may yet do so, but the latter was only doing so to promote archery.
Sorry to hear about your playing partner.
Thank you
I do urge you to be cautious as even public liability insurance may not cover you even if you are only chipping balls in a public space
In my time I served years as a golf club secretary plus captain and president and I experienced a lot of incidents causing personal injury and claims against golfers
Please take it as friendly advise, I do not want to appear officious or even unsympathetic
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
I ask again, why is fishing an issue.
For the same reason you've repeatedly been told in the past.
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
I ask again, why is fishing an issue.
For the same reason you've repeatedly been told in the past.
Please explain again, is it more important than financial services?
So, Google Surveys will do a 1 question poll for me at 11 pence per response.
Who would like some private polling for the Georgia Run Off elections?
Will it be a 100% return for the 'mind your own business you nosey bastard' party?
I was going to use it to do some comedy Scottish independence polling (open with a leading question) but to get a 2 question survey targetted down to Scotland cost a pound per response!
If you just want a question asked over the whole USA it is a mere 8 pence per response.
One question for Scotland please: Salmond or Sturgeon?
I'm surprised you want to waste money on that question.
Edit: not your money, of course.
This (did the Sturgeon faction conspire to royally stitch up Salmond over the sex claims?) is perhaps the most contentious and potentially explosive matter in Scottish Politics right now. And it's not my money.
I think 'perhaps' & 'potentially' are the words you should be concentrating on there.
If I recall correctly, Salmond was on a c.-40% rating in the last Indy poll.
Jeremy Hunt was most at home and valuable as Foreign Secretary.
Where he looked particularly good when compared to his predecessor. Might that be relevant at all?
Leadership requires others to follow him. Not sure that Hunt will inspire many followers. The FO requires more of Hunts quiet diplomatic skills. Although not knowing where his wife came from was not ideal.
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
I ask again, why is fishing an issue.
Why is fishing an issue to the EU ?
Because they can trade it against what they actually want, like LPF, at the last minute.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
There should not have been this lockdown in the first place but closing golf courses FFS - I mean how on earth does the thought process go that thats high risk?
They have decided to close down all outdoor sport. Many people regard golf as posh, therefore allowing golf but banning football would look bad, despite the difference in numbers and closeness of competitors. My running club has had to suspend its Socially Distanced 6-per-group evening runs. My butcher tells me he may not be able to get any pheasant as shooting has been banned - surely hunting and killing food is a necessity?
Woke is just a term used to be racist or sexist, or generally horrible that is still acceptable.
No, it really isn't although that's what its defenders (almost always) say in its defence.
Woke is a warped Marxist theory that's transmuted from academia into the real world and views everyone through a complex hierarchical and intersectional power dynamic where we are all classified by race, gender and sexuality and bracketed (and treated) as relative oppressors or victims accordingly. It uses this as a starting point to undercut some of the established values and historical foundations of our society in the hope that by breaking it down something better (Marxist utopia) that they believe will take its place. It cleverly condemns its opponents as racists and sexists to enforce its dogma and silence dissent. It's a big reason why they say "don't expect minorities to educate you on racism" - because they fear they wouldn't be on message; just look at how they attack those who are not - and instead say, please read my favoured best-selling culturally marxist book and 'educate yourself'.
Example: an unWoke person would be concerned that some Black people still experience some racial discrimination in the UK and would want to talk to them about it to understand it and change it. They wouldn't take a knee, tear down statues, or talk about White Privilege. They would emphasis the common-bonds they have of shared Britishness, they would demonstrate empathy they would talk about fairness, and they would talk about opening up opportunities for them and increasing role models. They would try harder to think about things from their point of view in future and bring everyone of all backgrounds, races and politics along with them. They wouldn't plaster what they're doing all over social media out of insecurity narcissism.
A Woke person would say either you buy into the whole lot, or you're suspect.. or worse.
Why would we need to compromise when as David Davis and Michael Gove say, we hold all the cards and the EU will come begging us for a deal due to our car industry?
We walked away for a grand total of one day before we returned again, why would we come back if we hold all the cards?
Why this change in tone when Biden has just won, is it because he hates Boris Johnson and his undermining of the GFA?
You can rejoin reality if you so wish, we're all routing for you.
I've always said that a compromise would involve comprises on both sides. I challenge you to ever quote me saying anything else.
We walked away until the EU compromised precisely because we do hold all the cards. As I said at the time if the EU back down and agree to what we want we should resume talks and that's exactly what happened.
If we hold all the cards, why are we compromising on anything?
Why did we return to the table when the EU were supposed to come begging us for a deal, if we hold all the cards?
It is bizarre, you're really very sensible on Trump and Biden but yet you do a complete 180 and do a Trump supporter when it comes to Johnson and Brexit.
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
Brexit will be over next year. It's then irrelevant and about the challenges of the future on which Hunt is very well placed.
I think you're too hung up on the mistake you made in backing Boris and have a blind spot for Hunt because you think his election would somehow be a vindication of those who've criticised you for it all along.
Re Mr Hunt, has anyone raised the question of what happens if there is an inquiry into the pox which looks at his track record on related matters and decides he messed up big time while in charge of the NHS? Exercise Cygnus, and so on. Not saying he did, just that IIRC the question was raised some months back, or am I being unfair?
Not unfair at all, and the lack of PPE stocks is probably the single strongest criticism. But the running down of public health capacity, for example, goes back a long way. Previous Labour governments included.
To Hunt’s credit, he appears to have learned something from his mistakes. I don’t think that will help him in the leadership stakes, though.
speaking of PPE, my wife is part way through her return to practise nursing course. She is working on a non-covid ward but they've had to take covid+ patients as the hospital has I think over 20% more cases than the spring peak. The qualified nurse told her she only needed basic PPE and she was in the bay 2 hours before somebody told her she needed the full kit (which she hasnt even been measured for). She is fuming, as am I. The nurse she worked with on Thursday has tested +ve. This only happened this morning so just keeping fingers crossed.
That’s alarming indeed. I hope it goes OK for you.
Same here Nigel, hope all goes well with your wife Paul.
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
Brexit will be over next year. It's then irrelevant and about the challenges of the future on which Hunt is very well placed.
I think you're too hung up on the mistake you made in backing Boris and have a blind spot for Hunt because you think his election would somehow be a vindication of those who've criticised you for it all along.
Re Mr Hunt, has anyone raised the question of what happens if there is an inquiry into the pox which looks at his track record on related matters and decides he messed up big time while in charge of the NHS? Exercise Cygnus, and so on. Not saying he did, just that IIRC the question was raised some months back, or am I being unfair?
Not unfair at all, and the lack of PPE stocks is probably the single strongest criticism. But the running down of public health capacity, for example, goes back a long way. Previous Labour governments included.
To Hunt’s credit, he appears to have learned something from his mistakes. I don’t think that will help him in the leadership stakes, though.
speaking of PPE, my wife is part way through her return to practise nursing course. She is working on a non-covid ward but they've had to take covid+ patients as the hospital has I think over 20% more cases than the spring peak. The qualified nurse told her she only needed basic PPE and she was in the bay 2 hours before somebody told her she needed the full kit (which she hasnt even been measured for). She is fuming, as am I. The nurse she worked with on Thursday has tested +ve. This only happened this morning so just keeping fingers crossed.
That’s alarming indeed. I hope it goes OK for you.
Same here Nigel, hope all goes well with your wife Paul.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
I hope you have adequate public liability insurance if you intend driving random golf balls in an area not designated for golf
Some years ago my playing partner was hit on the left forehead by a drive from another hole that felled him like a log. I rushed over to him and accompanied him to hospital in the ambulance
Sadly he was never the same after this incident and died a couple of years later
Hitting golf balls is not something to be done irresponsibly
Thanks for the advice, but I had appreciated that. I'm planning to practices my wedges and at most short irons if there's enough space, certainly not a driver. And in practice I won't be hitting balls anywhere near other people, although I hope they will take the hint and keep well away.
Golf courses have to close, but hitting golf balls isn't yet banned. If Johnson wants to emulate King James II of Scotland then he may yet do so, but the latter was only doing so to promote archery.
Sorry to hear about your playing partner.
Tennis was dangerous for one scottish king. cost him his life iirc, albeit indirectly. cant remember exactly which one though.
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
On current polling Labour does not need any more Tory voters to deny the Tories another majority, however they still need significantly more Tory voters to get a Labour majority, especially if they do not regain large numbers of seats from the SNP in Scotland
I think you've got this the wrong way round.
It starts with adminstrative and governmental competence. Without that Starmer will win by default (despite his faults) because people won't exercise other choices until they know they've got a candidate who can at least do the job.
In fact, that was a big part of why Boris won last year when put next to Corbyn - even though some people were crying whilst doing it.
Next time the tables will be turned which is why the Tories need someone who's demonstrably effective so they can turn the "safe pair of hands" back on Starmer again, which could include common-sense on cultural issues rather than pursuing left-wing identity politics, where Starmer will continue to struggle.
Which means Sunak, Hunt would lose so many voters to Farage he is the only potential Tory leader who could enable a Labour majority next time
I don't think that's true. Hunt could do a Macron.
It's policy and effectiveness that will determine whether he'll lose voters to Farage. May only started to shed to him because she'd failed to get Brexit done, and we had to suffer the farce of another round of EU Parliament elections as a result.
Macron is the centre left liberal candidate in France, Fillon was the centre right candidate and in 2017 was overtaken on the right by Le Pen, on that comparison Starmer would win in 2024, Farage would come second and Hunt's Tories would collapse to third
Have you spotted how Macron is positioning himself recently?
Once he gets to the run off Macron knows the left will always vote for him over Le Pen as they have nowhere else to go (with the slight risk he gets overtaken by Melenchon in round 1 leading to a Melenchon v Le Pen runoff and disaster for him and France), however the centre right in France will remain third unless it gets back voters from Le Pen as well as Macron
He looks awful, poor man, I really genuinely fear for his health. To see somebody in this state in such a difficult job is something I wouldn't wish on anyone.
I just watched it but with the sound off to check your comment.
Tbh, I don't think he looks any worse than usual (though I agree, a good haircut would help). Why does he always have to have a smirk on his face though?
He looks awful, poor man, I really genuinely fear for his health. To see somebody in this state in such a difficult job is something I wouldn't wish on anyone.
Did it not occur to him that he should get a haircut before lockdown started?
I see despair. I see depression. I see a man 250 yards away from a thousand-yard stare.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
There should not have been this lockdown in the first place but closing golf courses FFS - I mean how on earth does the thought process go that thats high risk?
They have decided to close down all outdoor sport. Many people regard golf as posh, therefore allowing golf but banning football would look bad, despite the difference in numbers and closeness of competitors. My running club has had to suspend its Socially Distanced 6-per-group evening runs. My butcher tells me he may not be able to get any pheasant as shooting has been banned - surely hunting and killing food is a necessity?
Well thr only reason we are banning things is on medical grounds not class war - golf is safe , no reason to ban it - I see fishing is allowed .I woudl be really irritated if it was banned merely for optics and not medical grounds.its not as if golf is that expensive - you can spend more on football boots than 10 rounds of golf
Its perhaps finally facing reality. All the govt can get is a partial win on fishing, and a review stage set to expire in 4 years time, perfectly timed to keep Brexit an issue in 2024.
I ask again, why is fishing an issue.
Why is fishing an issue to the EU ?
I have no idea.
The answer is that it isn't.
But the EU argue about it because arguing about things is what happens in negotiations.
And that is where all the EU negotiating by Blair and Cameron went wrong.
The asked for nothing, argued about nothing, got nothing.
Why would we need to compromise when as David Davis and Michael Gove say, we hold all the cards and the EU will come begging us for a deal due to our car industry?
We walked away for a grand total of one day before we returned again, why would we come back if we hold all the cards?
Why this change in tone when Biden has just won, is it because he hates Boris Johnson and his undermining of the GFA?
You can rejoin reality if you so wish, we're all routing for you.
I've always said that a compromise would involve comprises on both sides. I challenge you to ever quote me saying anything else.
We walked away until the EU compromised precisely because we do hold all the cards. As I said at the time if the EU back down and agree to what we want we should resume talks and that's exactly what happened.
If we hold all the cards, why are we compromising on anything?
Why did we return to the table when the EU were supposed to come begging us for a deal, if we hold all the cards?
It is bizarre, you're really very sensible on Trump and Biden but yet you do a complete 180 and do a Trump supporter when it comes to Johnson and Brexit.
Because compromises are part of negotiations. Is that such a difficult concept to get through your head?
We returned to the table with the EU because the EU did what we demanded. They did come begging us for a deal.
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
Brexit will be over next year. It's then irrelevant and about the challenges of the future on which Hunt is very well placed.
I think you're too hung up on the mistake you made in backing Boris and have a blind spot for Hunt because you think his election would somehow be a vindication of those who've criticised you for it all along.
Except I did not make a mistake backing Boris last year, Boris got an 80 seat majority landslide Hunt would not have done and then beat Corbyn and delivered Brexit
He was a tool purely for winning an election and enabling Brexit, and nothing more. He's been utterly diabolical in office.
So now what?
Boris no longer serves a purpose and is now a millstone around the neck of the country, and the Conservatives for that matter.
No room for sentimentality in politics.
And here I was thinking that loyalty and gratitude were conservative values. As the US election just demonstrated, winning landslides isn't easy, and I'm inclined to give ample latitude to Boris for achieving what no Conservative had done for 32 years - not to mention nailing the coffin shut on the far left for a generation in the process - rather than stabbing him in the back in the middle of a global pandemic in which he almost died.
But that's just me. Old-fashioned.
Boris has had his chance (he's been given more than one of them) and has been found very wanting. He's incompetent and out-of-his-depth. The polling and the evaporation of support for him tells its own story. For both his sake and the country, he must go, and the "kind" thing to do is for this to happen post-Brexit and after a vaccine has been rolled out - i.e. June next year. He'll have had 2 years in office. He'll have done his time.
If Boris goes the whole course until GE2024 the Conservatives reputation for careful stewardship of public finances and competent administration will be gone forever, and so might the Union. We'd be out of power for 20+ years during which left-wing governments would irrevocably the change this country forever. With Boris replaced, and 3-4 years of sensible rational Government, we salvage something from the mess and (if we don't win in GE2024, which we well might with a decent leader) we set up the frame for a narrow defeat to Labour which gives them enough rope to hang themselves - they will overreach - and sets us up for a return to power just 1-2 parliamentary terms later.
So the Internal Markets Bill is gone and with that, Johnson either does proper No Deal or he capitulates and its back to May's deal as he originally negotiated.
Johnson has gambled and he's recently discovered far from a flush, he's got Mr Bun the Baker, Pikachu, a Shadowmage, a fireball spell, and the Fool
Absolutely agree with this article. If Hunt became leader I would probably rejoin the party and I think a lot of others would too. He would be a unity candidate
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Everyone’s just desperate to (legally) leave the house, and all the Govt restrictions have done is massively reduce the areas where everyone can go. Whether inside (non essential shops - never busy but now shut - pushing larger numbers into the shops now open) or outside (shutting perfectly safe outdoor leisure sites - golf, zoos, theme parks) and pushing larger numbers into the parks.
So simultaneously killing business and economic activity whilst increasing likelihood of killing people!
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
The golf situation seems crazy, not that I really play golf often. How can two mates walking round a course be ok, but if they play golf it's dangerous? (apart from no one getting hit by a ball/angrily thrown club)
In March they had public buyin to the “don’t leave the house except for essential purposes”. So closing things like golf courses made some sense (within the overall concept of a ‘lockdown’). This time round they are trying the same line - but the public aren’t having any of it. The public are not interested in the spirit of the rules, only the letter.
And when the Govt has included leaving for the purposes of shopping for essential supplies, exercise or meeting up (with one person) FOR “RECREATION” then really “essential reasons” is out the window. So the Govt should be giving, as a minimum, access to as many outdoor recreational activities as possible.
Not at all. Exercise is a necessity, as is social contact. So you can meet up with one other person outdoors for a walk, run, cycle ride etc but not engage in any organised sport. This looks to me about allowing what is essential. It's only for less than a month anyway and we'll be 14% of the way through it by the end of today.
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
On current polling Labour does not need any more Tory voters to deny the Tories another majority, however they still need significantly more Tory voters to get a Labour majority, especially if they do not regain large numbers of seats from the SNP in Scotland
I think you've got this the wrong way round.
It starts with adminstrative and governmental competence. Without that Starmer will win by default (despite his faults) because people won't exercise other choices until they know they've got a candidate who can at least do the job.
In fact, that was a big part of why Boris won last year when put next to Corbyn - even though some people were crying whilst doing it.
Next time the tables will be turned which is why the Tories need someone who's demonstrably effective so they can turn the "safe pair of hands" back on Starmer again, which could include common-sense on cultural issues rather than pursuing left-wing identity politics, where Starmer will continue to struggle.
Which means Sunak, Hunt would lose so many voters to Farage he is the only potential Tory leader who could enable a Labour majority next time
I don't think that's true. Hunt could do a Macron.
It's policy and effectiveness that will determine whether he'll lose voters to Farage. May only started to shed to him because she'd failed to get Brexit done, and we had to suffer the farce of another round of EU Parliament elections as a result.
Hunt would need charisma to do a Macron.
He has no more or less than Starmer does.
Not sure that’s true, but either way to do a ‘Macron’ would require considerable charisma that Hunt clearly does not possess.
It doesn't require any charisma. It just requires courage and leadership.
So the Internal Markets Bill is gone and with that, Johnson either does proper No Deal or he capitulates and its back to May's deal as he originally negotiated.
Johnson has gambled and he's recently discovered far from a flush, he's got Mr Bun the Baker, Pikachu, a Shadowmage, a fireball spell, and the Fool
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
Brexit will be over next year. It's then irrelevant and about the challenges of the future on which Hunt is very well placed.
I think you're too hung up on the mistake you made in backing Boris and have a blind spot for Hunt because you think his election would somehow be a vindication of those who've criticised you for it all along.
Re Mr Hunt, has anyone raised the question of what happens if there is an inquiry into the pox which looks at his track record on related matters and decides he messed up big time while in charge of the NHS? Exercise Cygnus, and so on. Not saying he did, just that IIRC the question was raised some months back, or am I being unfair?
Not unfair at all, and the lack of PPE stocks is probably the single strongest criticism. But the running down of public health capacity, for example, goes back a long way. Previous Labour governments included.
To Hunt’s credit, he appears to have learned something from his mistakes. I don’t think that will help him in the leadership stakes, though.
speaking of PPE, my wife is part way through her return to practise nursing course. She is working on a non-covid ward but they've had to take covid+ patients as the hospital has I think over 20% more cases than the spring peak. The qualified nurse told her she only needed basic PPE and she was in the bay 2 hours before somebody told her she needed the full kit (which she hasnt even been measured for). She is fuming, as am I. The nurse she worked with on Thursday has tested +ve. This only happened this morning so just keeping fingers crossed.
That’s alarming indeed. I hope it goes OK for you.
Same here Nigel, hope all goes well with your wife Paul.
Nice article. I agree that 5/1 would be more fair. I think it would require the current Cabinet to be fairly confident in their ability to survive a reshuffle, or else they would not support him. The value no-change candidate I think is RAAB because the next election will still be about what to do post-Brexit, because he has previously done the top job without fudging anything up and because there would be a nice vacancy for one of his junior Cabinet colleagues to fill. He had one really minor gaffe on Brexit a long time ago, but buttons compared to Patel running an independent pro-Israel foreign policy or Gove's pure unpopularity.
He looks awful, poor man, I really genuinely fear for his health. To see somebody in this state in such a difficult job is something I wouldn't wish on anyone.
I just watched it but with the sound off to check your comment.
Tbh, I don't think he looks any worse than usual (though I agree, a good haircut would help). Why does he always have to have a smirk on his face though?
A source close to Johnson admitted there had “never been fewer” politicians in the cabinet who understood business, but insisted that the prime minister “does really care”.
He looks awful, poor man, I really genuinely fear for his health. To see somebody in this state in such a difficult job is something I wouldn't wish on anyone.
Did it not occur to him that he should get a haircut before lockdown started?
A source close to Johnson admitted there had “never been fewer” politicians in the cabinet who understood business, but insisted that the prime minister “does really care”.
The Lib Dems seem to be more invisible than before, somehow.
As others have pointed out before, the Labour rise has been mostly - but not entirely - due to Lib Dem voters folding into Labour.
This raises an interesting point, that is it possible that Labour doesn't really need to convert many more Tory voters to deny the Tories a majority in the worst case?
Starmer is indeed managing to pick up some 2019 Tory voters, including about 6% of Tory 2019 voters who also voted Leave (latest Opinium). As yet that isn't particularly impressive, given that a significant chunk of these will be former Labour "Red Wall" voters. But I think the potential for claiming them back will grow with time. Brexit will fade as an issue and I think that Starmer will be seen in time to be further marginalising the Corbynite extremists. It's worth remembering the polling that showed that Corbyn was the prime motivator of those deserting Labour in 2019, to a greater extent than Brexit.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
There should not have been this lockdown in the first place but closing golf courses FFS - I mean how on earth does the thought process go that thats high risk?
They have decided to close down all outdoor sport. Many people regard golf as posh, therefore allowing golf but banning football would look bad, despite the difference in numbers and closeness of competitors. My running club has had to suspend its Socially Distanced 6-per-group evening runs. My butcher tells me he may not be able to get any pheasant as shooting has been banned - surely hunting and killing food is a necessity?
Golf isn't a posh sport but there are class (and wealth) divides within it - its a lot easier (and cheaper) to play at a council owned course rather than an 'exclusive' members only one.
Absolutely agree with this article. If Hunt became leader I would probably rejoin the party and I think a lot of others would too. He would be a unity candidate
Hunt would bring back a few Remainers at most like yourself from Starmer Labour or the LDs, however he would risk seeing large numbers of hardline Brexiteers and anti lockdown supporters moving to Farage and his new Reform UK Party (with Farage likely forming a pact with Lawrence Fox on the UK alt right).
I would support the Tories whether under Boris, Sunak or Hunt but for me Sunak is the only viable alternative to Boris
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
There should not have been this lockdown in the first place but closing golf courses FFS - I mean how on earth does the thought process go that thats high risk?
They have decided to close down all outdoor sport. Many people regard golf as posh, therefore allowing golf but banning football would look bad, despite the difference in numbers and closeness of competitors. My running club has had to suspend its Socially Distanced 6-per-group evening runs. My butcher tells me he may not be able to get any pheasant as shooting has been banned - surely hunting and killing food is a necessity?
Well thr only reason we are banning things is on medical grounds not class war - golf is safe , no reason to ban it - I see fishing is allowed .I woudl be really irritated if it was banned merely for optics and not medical grounds.its not as if golf is that expensive - you can spend more on football boots than 10 rounds of golf
Yes hard to understand why golf is banned.Surely players can keep social distance outside.With the clubhouse closed what is the problem. Cases like this undermine the government's authority on people sticking to the rules.
Casino has like two states of posting, abusive or insightful. It's genuinely bizarre to see the pendulum swing between the two so quickly.
Yes, I'm not perfect. I have to hold my hands up and admit that. Sometimes I boil over and vent as a release; I'm not proud of it.
A lot of people on here know me personally though. They will tell you (I hope) that I'm not a bad bloke in reality.
I actually really like the vast majority of posters on here, including those I don't politically agree with. I far prefer the constructive debates and insightful exchanges of views rather than the partisan stuff.
I think this is a mistake and the lockdown should be extended.
Yes - frustrating that there's not more alignment between the UK nations. All leaders equally at fault.
I have a feeling that in a few weeks the English lockdown is going to be proven to be a big mistake. I think it may actually lead to a worsening of the situation when there were signs that the Tiers were having an effect (of course in practice a worsening will now be taken of "evidence" of the necessity of the lockdown). Under the "lockdown" (which isn't actually remotely close to a real lockdown) the incentives for the public to comply have been destroyed. When we had the Tier system there was some evidence of communities in general pulling together to avoid being pushed into higher Tiers. What was missing was a route-map to lower Tiers but that could have come. Now there are no incentives. Nobody believes any of these messages about "saving Christmas".
The evidence in London yesterday was that people were completely ignoring the new rules. The parks and open spaces were packed. Far, far busier than in recent weeks. Rules on households clearly being ignored. The pubs were doing a roaring takeaway trade. Someone told me there was a 20 minute queue outside Pret to get a free coffee offer!!! I believe all of this is a direct response to the new Government lockdown. And this is what people are doing in public. It doesn't include what people are doing in private. The Government will blame the public (who claim in polls to support it...) But the behavioural scientists must have been dropped from SAGE or bloody useless because it was all absolutely predictable.
Not all parks are packed. The two square kilometers of parkland at my golf club was no doubt absolutely deserted yesterday save for 5 greens staff maintaining the course in the lovely Autumn weather. So because I couldn't exercise there in splendid isolation instead I added to the numbers taking their exercise down the local disused railway track and nature reserve which was absolutely heaving. Must have walked past 200 others in the space of an hour.
On Monday I'm going to say sod it and wander down to the local playing fields to hit some practice balls around. My mate was doing so yesterday. If anyone objects to balls flying past them I'll suggest that they should social distance at 100+ yards like we do away from other twoballs on the course. If a couple of people are hitting tennis balls across the tarmaced car park next to the closed tennis courts I'll fully understand.
My support for the lockdown is waning simply because of the cack handed sense of priorities. Banning socially distanced outside sport while relaxing the rules to encouraging people to congregate outside pubs serving takeaway beer is an utterly absurd situation. I imagine that Homebase is today going to be heaving from people who have absolutely nothing to do but to go shopping indoors for leisure, and unlike me don't care about the risk to others as well as themselves.
Indeed.
Whoever decided on the rules seems to have no understanding about risk or of the concept of activity displacement.
There should not have been this lockdown in the first place but closing golf courses FFS - I mean how on earth does the thought process go that thats high risk?
They have decided to close down all outdoor sport. Many people regard golf as posh, therefore allowing golf but banning football would look bad, despite the difference in numbers and closeness of competitors. My running club has had to suspend its Socially Distanced 6-per-group evening runs. My butcher tells me he may not be able to get any pheasant as shooting has been banned - surely hunting and killing food is a necessity?
Golf isn't a posh sport but there are class (and wealth) divides within it - its a lot easier (and cheaper) to play at a council owned course rather than an 'exclusive' members only one.
Not just council owned course , in fact the majority of golf clubs are open to pay and play for as little as £10 a round .Nobody stands over you to see if you are good enough or wearing the right togs at most courses - films like Caddyshack have a lot to answer for!
Woke is just a term used to be racist or sexist, or generally horrible that is still acceptable.
No, it really isn't although that's what its defenders (almost always) say in its defence.
Woke is a warped Marxist theory that's transmuted from academia into the real world and views everyone through a complex hierarchical and intersectional power dynamic where we are all classified by race, gender and sexuality and bracketed (and treated) as relative oppressors or victims accordingly. It uses this as a starting point to undercut some of the established values and historical foundations of our society in the hope that by breaking it down something better (Marxist utopia) that they believe will take its place. It cleverly condemns its opponents as racists and sexists to enforce its dogma and silence dissent. It's a big reason why they say "don't expect minorities to educate you on racism" - because they fear they wouldn't be on message; just look at how they attack those who are not - and instead say, please read my favoured best-selling culturally marxist book and 'educate yourself'.
Example: an unWoke person would be concerned that some Black people still experience some racial discrimination in the UK and would want to talk to them about it to understand it and change it. They wouldn't take a knee, tear down statues, or talk about White Privilege. They would emphasis the common-bonds they have of shared Britishness, they would demonstrate empathy they would talk about fairness, and they would talk about opening up opportunities for them and increasing role models. They would try harder to think about things from their point of view in future and bring everyone of all backgrounds, races and politics along with them. They wouldn't plaster what they're doing all over social media out of insecurity narcissism.
A Woke person would say either you buy into the whole lot, or you're suspect.. or worse.
A remarkable number of very novel things these days are "Marxist". Pretty astonishing for a man who died 137 years ago.
Comments
Beyond the pronouns, what is "woke" about this?
Woke is just a term used to be racist or sexist, or generally horrible that is still acceptable.
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1325402518093000714
The no 1 problem Hunt has is that a large chunk of the MPs who backed him last time are no longer MPs. e.g. Gauke, Stewart, Liddington
I think people overlook how much the centre of gravity in the parliamentary party shifted at the last election - not only in terms of Brexit but geography. If we look at the number of Con MPs by region:
London - 21 (out of 73)
South East - 73 (84)
South West - 48 (55)
Eastern - 52 (58)
East Mids - 38 (46)
West Mids - 44 (59)
Yorkshire - 26 (54)
North West - 32 (75)
North East - 10 (29)
Wales - 14 (40)
Scotland - 6 (59)
So in % terms (compared with 2017)
London - 6% (7%)
Rest of South - 47% (53%)
Midlands - 22% (21%)
North - 19% (13%)
Devolved nations - 5% (6%)
So while London and SE still have a narrow majority of MPs, this has reduced from 2017, with the North being the main gainer.
If what I read of Biden's aides is representative then I expect almost all his efforts to reach out across the divide to fail and he'll be in real trouble inside 18 months.
Utterly clueless.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/08/donald-trump-defeat-wonderful-for-world-trouble-for-boris-johnson
If that happened here for Labour it would be a landslide. Culture wars are a way to lose but not win, elections, it seems.
Lol this is an utter capitulation.
I wonder if Cameron’s fans were confident then that he remained an asset?
A deal involves comprises on both sides. That is how grown ups compromise.
Golf courses have to close, but hitting golf balls isn't yet banned. If Johnson wants to emulate King James II of Scotland then he may yet do so, but the latter was only doing so to promote archery.
Sorry to hear about your playing partner.
Why would we need to compromise when as David Davis and Michael Gove say, we hold all the cards and the EU will come begging us for a deal due to our car industry?
We walked away for a grand total of one day before we returned again, why would we come back if we hold all the cards?
Why this change in tone when Biden has just won, is it because he hates Boris Johnson and his undermining of the GFA?
You can rejoin reality if you so wish, we're all routing for you.
He looks awful, poor man, I really genuinely fear for his health. To see somebody in this state in such a difficult job is something I wouldn't wish on anyone.
We walked away until the EU compromised precisely because we do hold all the cards. As I said at the time if the EU back down and agree to what we want we should resume talks and that's exactly what happened.
And when the Govt has included leaving for the purposes of shopping for essential supplies, exercise or meeting up (with one person) FOR “RECREATION” then really “essential reasons” is out the window. So the Govt should be giving, as a minimum, access to as many outdoor recreational activities as possible.
This is spot on, it's such a shame as Fox seems a decent-ish actor and doesn't come across badly at all, he seems sane and down to Earth. Which makes his support for Trump the ever more depressing.
I do urge you to be cautious as even public liability insurance may not cover you even if you are only chipping balls in a public space
In my time I served years as a golf club secretary plus captain and president and I experienced a lot of incidents causing personal injury and claims against golfers
Please take it as friendly advise, I do not want to appear officious or even unsympathetic
If I recall correctly, Salmond was on a c.-40% rating in the last Indy poll.
Woke is a warped Marxist theory that's transmuted from academia into the real world and views everyone through a complex hierarchical and intersectional power dynamic where we are all classified by race, gender and sexuality and bracketed (and treated) as relative oppressors or victims accordingly. It uses this as a starting point to undercut some of the established values and historical foundations of our society in the hope that by breaking it down something better (Marxist utopia) that they believe will take its place. It cleverly condemns its opponents as racists and sexists to enforce its dogma and silence dissent. It's a big reason why they say "don't expect minorities to educate you on racism" - because they fear they wouldn't be on message; just look at how they attack those who are not - and instead say, please read my favoured best-selling culturally marxist book and 'educate yourself'.
Example: an unWoke person would be concerned that some Black people still experience some racial discrimination in the UK and would want to talk to them about it to understand it and change it. They wouldn't take a knee, tear down statues, or talk about White Privilege. They would emphasis the common-bonds they have of shared Britishness, they would demonstrate empathy they would talk about fairness, and they would talk about opening up opportunities for them and increasing role models. They would try harder to think about things from their point of view in future and bring everyone of all backgrounds, races and politics along with them. They wouldn't plaster what they're doing all over social media out of insecurity narcissism.
A Woke person would say either you buy into the whole lot, or you're suspect.. or worse.
Why did we return to the table when the EU were supposed to come begging us for a deal, if we hold all the cards?
It is bizarre, you're really very sensible on Trump and Biden but yet you do a complete 180 and do a Trump supporter when it comes to Johnson and Brexit.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1325414699941449728
BoZo is counting on the Lords to dig him out of the hole he dug himself.
Not sure how that is going to play with the headbangers...
Oh dear, I guess the US holds all the cards.
Tbh, I don't think he looks any worse than usual (though I agree, a good haircut would help). Why does he always have to have a smirk on his face though?
But the EU argue about it because arguing about things is what happens in negotiations.
And that is where all the EU negotiating by Blair and Cameron went wrong.
The asked for nothing, argued about nothing, got nothing.
We returned to the table with the EU because the EU did what we demanded. They did come begging us for a deal.
If Boris goes the whole course until GE2024 the Conservatives reputation for careful stewardship of public finances and competent administration will be gone forever, and so might the Union. We'd be out of power for 20+ years during which left-wing governments would irrevocably the change this country forever. With Boris replaced, and 3-4 years of sensible rational Government, we salvage something from the mess and (if we don't win in GE2024, which we well might with a decent leader) we set up the frame for a narrow defeat to Labour which gives them enough rope to hang themselves - they will overreach - and sets us up for a return to power just 1-2 parliamentary terms later.
Long game.
Johnson has gambled and he's recently discovered far from a flush, he's got Mr Bun the Baker, Pikachu, a Shadowmage, a fireball spell, and the Fool
https://twitter.com/JohnnyPixels/status/779231997080309760
Buttering them up.
Whomp whomp
A source close to Johnson admitted there had “never been fewer” politicians in the cabinet who understood business, but insisted that the prime minister “does really care”.
I would support the Tories whether under Boris, Sunak or Hunt but for me Sunak is the only viable alternative to Boris
Cases like this undermine the government's authority on people sticking to the rules.
A lot of people on here know me personally though. They will tell you (I hope) that I'm not a bad bloke in reality.
I actually really like the vast majority of posters on here, including those I don't politically agree with. I far prefer the constructive debates and insightful exchanges of views rather than the partisan stuff.
And Drakeford lifts lockdown tomorrow