Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
Let's say I agree with the premise then Hunt would be a strong candidate for leader only one or two years later.
Boris isn't going to lead the Conservatives into the next election, which means another Conservative will become PM.
Useful Information Discovered Too Late Department.
On the NYT state election results page, down below the headline result is an expandable list of counties, with leading candidate, margin of lead and estimate of votes reported so far. Obviously this is exactly what is needed for a decent estimate of the final result.
Last night at midnight I went through the calculation for Arizona and estimated that Biden's lead would rise from 21.1k then to 23.5k.
It seems around 23k ballots were reported overnight, and Biden's lead shrank to 18.6k. But repeating the calculation still shows precisely the same final estimate: 23.5k.
Unless this consistency is a fluke, I wonder why the pundits haven't been doing this kind of calculation. If it holds up, an awful lot of uncertainty could have been avoided over the last few days (and an awful lot of money made).
I'm not sure where so much of the uncertainty came from. The BBC/Guardian were definitely over cautious, but if you read something like 538 they were pretty clear early on where things were headed.
Biden was arguably still favourite even when he went out crazily in the betting in the middle of the night, but the big moment was not long before 10am on Thursday, when it became clear just how favourable the mail in votes were going to be.
After that, it was a case of whether you believed Trump might have legal options, but the votes were always heading to Biden.
Useful Information Discovered Too Late Department.
On the NYT state election results page, down below the headline result is an expandable list of counties, with leading candidate, margin of lead and estimate of votes reported so far. Obviously this is exactly what is needed for a decent estimate of the final result.
Last night at midnight I went through the calculation for Arizona and estimated that Biden's lead would rise from 21.1k then to 23.5k.
It seems around 23k ballots were reported overnight, and Biden's lead shrank to 18.6k. But repeating the calculation still shows precisely the same final estimate: 23.5k.
Unless this consistency is a fluke, I wonder why the pundits haven't been doing this kind of calculation. If it holds up, an awful lot of uncertainty could have been avoided over the last few days (and an awful lot of money made).
Isn't the still-missing piece the difference between early, mail-in and on-the-day votes, both in VI and in terms of which each county started with?
Yes, it is. Perhaps that overnight agreement in Arizona was a bit of a fluke. I suppose this will underestimate the performance of whichever candidate has the momentum.
Just for interest, the corresponding estimates for Pennsylvania and Nevada are: PA: Biden's lead rises from 37.3k now to 49.7k NV: Biden's lead rises from 27.5k now to 31.8k
Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 ....
Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
*cough*
Nasty cough - You need to get a Covid test .... there is a testing station next to the lower ground floor of Auchentennach Castle ... near the dungeons ...
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
Interesting what people remember. I think most people I know would say the NHS but was the most memorable. Perhaps there is a left/right split, so maybe Hunt was right. Although if the right get Bond/HMQ then surely the left deserved something too.
I'd think the Pandemonium opening - which was the moment our Olympics turned from impending shambles (that first scene with the sheep standing about and people in fancy dress playing cricket didn't raise expectations!) to global triumph - was the most memorable. But, asked to list out the bits, I'm also pretty sure the NHS bit wouldn't be forgotten.
Danny Boyle went out of his way to make sure that all the aspects of British culture and history that they brainstormed got a mention somewhere. It really did have something for everyone, which was a key reason for its success.
But the more fundamental point is that he had taken the job on the basis that he had total editorial freedom and control - and here was Hunt, as health secretary no less, trying to force him to make major cuts.
Good article and agree 20/1 is value although would be a clear layer at 5/1 given there is a plausible chance the winner only comes though in ten years time still. An interesting question on these bets is betting next PM or next leader. On betfair he is 20 next PM vs 11 next Tory leader (both in small amounts so could easily move especially after this article).
If he is more likely to be Tory leader post the GE then next leader is better (despite the worse odds), if more likely to be leader before the next election then next PM is better.
Id lean towards backing him for Tory leader is better, his most plausible path is Johnson "resolves" Brexit, does just well enough to hang in but loses the GE, probably to a hung parliament. At this point he is the clear leader of the anti-Johnson, competent wing of the party, and there are few rivals for this spot - Javid, who generally seems overrated, is the only one still in parliament and it is hard for others to rise without being involved in government. (Sunak whilst competent, is far more tied to Johnson's success and the Brexit project).
I don't think Johnson can or will last over three years to lead the party into the next General Election. The writing is already on the wall now.
Of course he can't run or win on the strictly Cameroon platform of 2010, or even 2015 (politics has changed) but he can offer good, competent and measured Government which I suspect is both what Britain will want and need for the next few years.
Given that Trump is only ever selfish, I wonder if he ever will genuinely concede.
He may give up the legal fight, but it wouldn't surprise me if he just says he's been let down by his own side (and they were probably always on the side of the "deep state/establishment" anyway).
If Trump TV is the endgame now, then he's more likely to want to go out as a cheated winner.
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
Interesting what people remember. I think most people I know would say the NHS but was the most memorable. Perhaps there is a left/right split, so maybe Hunt was right. Although if the right get Bond/HMQ then surely the left deserved something too.
I'd think the Pandemonium opening - which was the moment our Olympics turned from impending shambles (that opening with the sheep standing about and people in fancy dress playing cricket didn't raise expectations!) to global triumph - was the most memorable. But, asked to list out the bits, I'm also pretty sure the NHS bit wouldn't be forgotten.
Danny Boyle went out of his way to make sure that all the aspects of British culture and history that they brainstormed got a mention somewhere. It really did have something for everyone, which was a key reason for its success.
But the more fundamental point is that he had taken the job on the basis that he had total editorial freedom and control - and here was Hunt, as health secretary no less, trying to force him to make major cuts.
Yeah it was certainly a dick move by Hunt. I mean, he is a Tory so I will never vote for him anyway, but I still find it bizarre that he was overlooked by the party in favour of an obvious charlatan like Johnson.
Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 ....
Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
*cough*
Nasty cough - You need to get a Covid test .... there is a testing station next to the lower ground floor of Auchentennach Castle ... near the dungeons ...
I literally have no idea what you are talking about, my fellow 306er.
Useful Information Discovered Too Late Department.
On the NYT state election results page, down below the headline result is an expandable list of counties, with leading candidate, margin of lead and estimate of votes reported so far. Obviously this is exactly what is needed for a decent estimate of the final result.
Last night at midnight I went through the calculation for Arizona and estimated that Biden's lead would rise from 21.1k then to 23.5k.
It seems around 23k ballots were reported overnight, and Biden's lead shrank to 18.6k. But repeating the calculation still shows precisely the same final estimate: 23.5k.
Unless this consistency is a fluke, I wonder why the pundits haven't been doing this kind of calculation. If it holds up, an awful lot of uncertainty could have been avoided over the last few days (and an awful lot of money made).
Isn't the still-missing piece the difference between early, mail-in and on-the-day votes, both in VI and in terms of which each county started with?
Yes, it is. Perhaps that overnight agreement in Arizona was a bit of a fluke. I suppose this will underestimate the performance of whichever candidate has the momentum.
Just for interest, the corresponding estimates for Pennsylvania and Nevada are: PA: Biden's lead rises from 37.3k now to 49.7k NV: Biden's lead rises from 27.5k now to 31.8k
I think PA will prove an under-estimate, making my earlier point.
Good article and agree 20/1 is value although would be a clear layer at 5/1 given there is a plausible chance the winner only comes though in ten years time still. An interesting question on these bets is betting next PM or next leader. On betfair he is 20 next PM vs 11 next Tory leader (both in small amounts so could easily move especially after this article).
If he is more likely to be Tory leader post the GE then next leader is better (despite the worse odds), if more likely to be leader before the next election then next PM is better.
Id lean towards backing him for Tory leader is better, his most plausible path is Johnson "resolves" Brexit, does just well enough to hang in but loses the GE, probably to a hung parliament. At this point he is the clear leader of the anti-Johnson, competent wing of the party, and there are few rivals for this spot - Javid, who generally seems overrated, is the only one still in parliament and it is hard for others to rise without being involved in government. (Sunak whilst competent, is far more tied to Johnson's success and the Brexit project).
I don't think Johnson can or will last over three years to lead the party into the next General Election. The writing is already on the wall now.
Of course he can't run or win on the strictly Cameroon platform of 2010, or even 2015 (politics has changed) but he can offer good, competent and measured Government which I suspect is both what Britain will want and need for the next few years.
PMs in office tend to last longer than people expect, but there is certainly potential that he prefers leaving than battling on given a young family, recovery from covid, and probably uniquely as a modern day PM, the feeling he is not earning enough!
But pre election the likes of Sunak & Patel better reflect the memberships views.
I knew The Johnson Project would be a complete catastrofuck but I didn't think we'd be into tory leader Tinder swiping this early into it. Hunt has failed several Brexit purity tests so he's too remainy for the tory membership and too didelphine for normal people.
A new word for me, thanks for the education, though I usually think porcine when I think Tory
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
Mr. Royale, not sure I agree. Inertia and stubbornness on the PM's part coupled with vacillation on the part of the PCP, who took their sweet time axing May (and some of whom will be grateful for their seats) means it's entirely credible that Conservative MPs may foolishly allow themselves to be led into the next election by Boris Johnson.
As an aside, Sunak's got a lay of 3.85 for next PM. For those who backed Mr. Thompson's ultra-tasty 251 tip on him getting the gig, that's well worth a look.
Bozo is useless, why does he not just follow Sturgeon immediately rather than being forced into it and looking an even bigger loser than was thought possible.
On the Olympics opening ceremony what I've seen is that Hunt was supportive of the NHS section but just thought it was a little too long (and, indeed, it was rather) and wanted a bit on the WWII/Spitfires/Blitz and victory over the Nazis included as well (which in reality would have included a walk on part by some extras and a brief 2-3 minute emphasis) as it was for many other parts, which I could have seen working well.
He was Culture Secretary at the time so his comments made sense.
Mr. Royale, not sure I agree. Inertia and stubbornness on the PM's part coupled with vacillation on the part of the PCP, who took their sweet time axing May (and some of whom will be grateful for their seats) means it's entirely credible that Conservative MPs may foolishly allow themselves to be led into the next election by Boris Johnson.
As an aside, Sunak's got a lay of 3.85 for next PM. For those who backed Mr. Thompson's ultra-tasty 251 tip on him getting the gig, that's well worth a look.
Yes, but bear in mind that was partly out of fear of what it might mean in a hung parliament and for completing Brexit.
With that achieved and a solid parliamentary majority on the table changing the leader is very tempting.
There are no stars in the party, no intelligence and no vision.
A deliberate policy by BoZo. No threats.
Who in the Conservative Parliamentary Party does Boris fear? Brady, Gove, May. Who in the Conservative Parliamentary Party does Boris not fear? Hunt, Raab, Sunak.
Biden’s election will be seen by the history books as another nail in the coffin of “Brexit”.
On topic: The problem with Hunt is that, although he is “papabile” and probably very electable, he seems to have no followers on the backbench and his public profile is close to non-existent.
Indeed, despite his holding a senior ministry for years, most people would struggle to pick him in a line-up.
No, the Tories will go with Rishi. They are half way there already, since Rishi seems to be given the all-clear to mount a one-man PR campaign. When Boris decides to go, It will be a coronation.
Good article and agree 20/1 is value although would be a clear layer at 5/1 given there is a plausible chance the winner only comes though in ten years time still. An interesting question on these bets is betting next PM or next leader. On betfair he is 20 next PM vs 11 next Tory leader (both in small amounts so could easily move especially after this article).
If he is more likely to be Tory leader post the GE then next leader is better (despite the worse odds), if more likely to be leader before the next election then next PM is better.
Id lean towards backing him for Tory leader is better, his most plausible path is Johnson "resolves" Brexit, does just well enough to hang in but loses the GE, probably to a hung parliament. At this point he is the clear leader of the anti-Johnson, competent wing of the party, and there are few rivals for this spot - Javid, who generally seems overrated, is the only one still in parliament and it is hard for others to rise without being involved in government. (Sunak whilst competent, is far more tied to Johnson's success and the Brexit project).
I don't think Johnson can or will last over three years to lead the party into the next General Election. The writing is already on the wall now.
Of course he can't run or win on the strictly Cameroon platform of 2010, or even 2015 (politics has changed) but he can offer good, competent and measured Government which I suspect is both what Britain will want and need for the next few years.
PMs in office tend to last longer than people expect, but there is certainly potential that he prefers leaving than battling on given a young family, recovery from covid, and probably uniquely as a modern day PM, the feeling he is not earning enough!
But pre election the likes of Sunak & Patel better reflect the memberships views.
The Tory membership are savvier than you think and I think it's a case of once bitten twice shy.
The belief they're all headbanging ultra hard right wingers isn't really true. They can be led which is why it's so important he looks Prime Ministerial and does well amongst MPs.
Sunak would be the one to beat, for now, but I have a feeling his halo won't last.
I knew The Johnson Project would be a complete catastrofuck but I didn't think we'd be into tory leader Tinder swiping this early into it. Hunt has failed several Brexit purity tests so he's too remainy for the tory membership and too didelphine for normal people.
A new word for me, thanks for the education, though I usually think porcine when I think Tory
It was in a crossword last year. Chicago Tribune I think.
Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 ....
Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
*cough*
Nasty cough - You need to get a Covid test .... there is a testing station next to the lower ground floor of Auchentennach Castle ... near the dungeons ...
I literally have no idea what you are talking about, my fellow 306er.
That's fine. I'll have one of my staff show you around the place. Hope you'll be able to stay for a while. Many visitors find the experience a life changing event ....
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
Interesting what people remember. I think most people I know would say the NHS but was the most memorable. Perhaps there is a left/right split, so maybe Hunt was right. Although if the right get Bond/HMQ then surely the left deserved something too.
I'd think the Pandemonium opening - which was the moment our Olympics turned from impending shambles (that first scene with the sheep standing about and people in fancy dress playing cricket didn't raise expectations!) to global triumph - was the most memorable. But, asked to list out the bits, I'm also pretty sure the NHS bit wouldn't be forgotten.
Danny Boyle went out of his way to make sure that all the aspects of British culture and history that they brainstormed got a mention somewhere. It really did have something for everyone, which was a key reason for its success.
But the more fundamental point is that he had taken the job on the basis that he had total editorial freedom and control - and here was Hunt, as health secretary no less, trying to force him to make major cuts.
He was Culture Secretary at the time, not Health Secretary, and he didn't try and force him to make major cuts. He just suggested some edits and changes of emphasis.
Ultimately some of these won out as Churchill and the Dambusters featured in the introductory sequence.
So what is 45's route to a second term? How many states does he need get overturned? Maybe GA and PA?
I reckon that - excluding states where Biden's lead is more than 2% - Trump needs at least three of Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, and if the three didn't include Pennsylvania it would be a draw.
Biden’s election will be seen by the history books as another nail in the coffin of “Brexit”.
On topic: The problem with Hunt is that, although he is “papabile” and probably very electable, he seems to have no followers on the backbench and his public profile is close to non-existent.
Indeed, despite his holding a senior ministry for years, most people would struggle to pick him in a line-up.
No, the Tories will go with Rishi. They are half way there already, since Rishi seems to be given the all-clear to mount a one-man PR campaign. When Boris decides to go, It will be a coronation.
Did I miss discussion of this very revealing story (Sunak has used the conservative oak tree logo, with his own name instead of "conservative," in a furlough announcement)?
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
Interesting what people remember. I think most people I know would say the NHS but was the most memorable. Perhaps there is a left/right split, so maybe Hunt was right. Although if the right get Bond/HMQ then surely the left deserved something too.
I'd think the Pandemonium opening - which was the moment our Olympics turned from impending shambles (that first scene with the sheep standing about and people in fancy dress playing cricket didn't raise expectations!) to global triumph - was the most memorable. But, asked to list out the bits, I'm also pretty sure the NHS bit wouldn't be forgotten.
Danny Boyle went out of his way to make sure that all the aspects of British culture and history that they brainstormed got a mention somewhere. It really did have something for everyone, which was a key reason for its success.
But the more fundamental point is that he had taken the job on the basis that he had total editorial freedom and control - and here was Hunt, as health secretary no less, trying to force him to make major cuts.
Afraid it was twee crap, vomit inducing bollox that just about epitomised how close to fantasy land UK had become, down the rabbit hole indeed.
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
As a floating voter it wouldnt be on my radar at all. Murdoch doesnt have much political power in the UK anymore, I would be far more concerned about checking a politicians (on all sides) links to Putin!
I'm trying to imagine what a Jeremy-Hunt-choreographed opening ceremony would look like, and all I can come up with is Casino on a stage cryshouting about "the left".
Biden’s election will be seen by the history books as another nail in the coffin of “Brexit”.
On topic: The problem with Hunt is that, although he is “papabile” and probably very electable, he seems to have no followers on the backbench and his public profile is close to non-existent.
Indeed, despite his holding a senior ministry for years, most people would struggle to pick him in a line-up.
No, the Tories will go with Rishi. They are half way there already, since Rishi seems to be given the all-clear to mount a one-man PR campaign. When Boris decides to go, It will be a coronation.
Did I miss discussion of this very revealing story (Sunak has used the conservative oak tree logo, with his own name instead of "conservative," in a furlough announcement)?
It appears some in the Party complained that Rishi failed to mention the word “Conservative” in his overt self-promotion campaign.
So he has adopted the oak, with his name underneath it, as his new “logo”.
It’s all very slick, but I’m not sure why Boris lets him get away with it all. Not only does it blur the appropriate distinction between HMG and political advertising, it can only be read as part of a campaign to be next PM.
I don’t trust Rishi, and this one of the reasons why.
I'm not clear that Hunt would win a members vote but would be happy with him or Sunak - first party with an Asian MP would be a wonderful riposte to to Labour's record on sex and race equality. On Biden - definitely the right choice given the options for me but modest expectations are the best approach to what he can achieve. Then one might be pleasantly surprised. Saviour of western democracy etc, etc, seems a little ott at this point.
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
There are some in the NHS who will never vote Hunt, but they are folk who would never vote Tory anyway. Certainly I won't be voting Tory again.
His new Junior Doctors contract is a fiasco, making for very complicated and inflexible rota writing, and failed in its claimed benefit to 7 day non emergency working. Hunt was astute enough to declare victory then abandon any attempt to revise Consultant contracts.
I don't object to him as much as some other former Health Secs. I would rate Patricia Hewitt and Alan Milburn as the worst of my life in the NHS. Hunt was the best at the FCO for a long time.
I think though Hunt won't have the support of either the Commons to make the final two, nor the Brexit obsessed party membership. Brexit is not going away as an issue, as it is not a stable state, but rather a state of permanent negotiations, often divisive over touchstone issues, such as food standards and economic protection.
I am mildly green on Hunt but don't expect it to win.
So what is 45's route to a second term? How many states does he need get overturned? Maybe GA and PA?
I reckon that - excluding states where Biden's lead is more than 2% - Trump needs at least three of Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, and if the three didn't include Pennsylvania it would be a draw.
Of those four, I'm not sure whether Arizona or Wisconsin are even featuring in Trump's wild accusations of illegality.
In Ben Bradley's world drug dealers and pimps are perhaps celebrating and increased their cash flow projections to account for their 30% share of this money.
The govt and PM havent shafted him, he shafted himself with stupid crass commentary.
Ben Bradley and his ilk are part of that mysterious (to Boris) category of things that are not-Boris, so why should Boris care whether they have embarrassed themselves?
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
It depends how bad the outlook is. If Brexit turns out to the the worst of both worlds, that could be enough to decide the next election, no matter who the next leader is. I can't see Sunak being up for leading the party into near-certain defeat, even if he can somehow avoid being tainted by association. Going through three years misery out of patriotic and party duty? Sounds like it's right up TM's street.
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 ....
Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
*cough*
Nasty cough - You need to get a Covid test .... there is a testing station next to the lower ground floor of Auchentennach Castle ... near the dungeons ...
I literally have no idea what you are talking about, my fellow 306er.
That's fine. I'll have one of my staff show you around the place. Hope you'll be able to stay for a while. Many visitors find the experience a life changing event ....
Above all - even supposing some observers were found to have been wrongly excluded from counts, I don't understand how anyone in their right mind could imagine a court would award the election to Trump on that basis. A partial recount maybe, if officials were really found to have acted improperly.
For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not implying that Trump is in his right mind.
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
Morning, can I ask what current thinking on AZ is? Is it still looking like Biden will carry it? I have a small bet on Trump 210-239 ECVs which I will lose if it goes red
Biden’s election will be seen by the history books as another nail in the coffin of “Brexit”.
On topic: The problem with Hunt is that, although he is “papabile” and probably very electable, he seems to have no followers on the backbench and his public profile is close to non-existent.
Indeed, despite his holding a senior ministry for years, most people would struggle to pick him in a line-up.
No, the Tories will go with Rishi. They are half way there already, since Rishi seems to be given the all-clear to mount a one-man PR campaign. When Boris decides to go, It will be a coronation.
Did I miss discussion of this very revealing story (Sunak has used the conservative oak tree logo, with his own name instead of "conservative," in a furlough announcement)?
It appears some in the Party complained that Rishi failed to mention the word “Conservative” in his overt self-promotion campaign.
So he has adopted the oak, with his name underneath it, as his new “logo”.
It’s all very slick, but I’m not sure why Boris lets him get away with it all. Not only does it blur the appropriate distinction between HMG and political advertising, it can only be read as part of a campaign to be next PM.
I don’t trust Rishi, and this one of the reasons why.
Is it necessary to trust politicians? They are supposed to stab each other in the back. I'm not sure it has any bearing on whether they can deliver an effective government when in power.
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
To be honest if the best criticism of Hunt we can make on here is reaching back 10 years to find some highly tenuous rumoured (and totally unsubstantiated) link with Murdoch and some minor suggested tweaks to the Olympics opening ceremony 8 years ago, which was in another age, then we can probably conclude Hunt is ok.
Bozo is useless, why does he not just follow Sturgeon immediately rather than being forced into it and looking an even bigger loser than was thought possible.
Good idea. We should have a referendum on England leaving the UK.
Thanks @Casino_Royale for a good article. Hunt would certainly be an improvement. It would also signal the ideological factions in the Tory party having less sway. That would be a good thing for all of us. Shame it won’t be done before a cold, hard Brexit is forced upon us.
The caving in to Marcus Rashford was so inevitable that I genuinely find it bewildering that a populist politician like Boris was not on from the get go. We are throwing hundreds of billions at our economy hoping to protect jobs and keep demand at some sort of acceptable level. Throwing a couple of hundred million at feeding poor kids is chickenfeed, not even a day's extra spending.
Of course at some point the bills for this largesse will come due. Covid has been even more expensive than Gordon Brown's boom and bust and it will likely take longer to rebalance our economy again than after 2008. That means a long haul of tight public spending year after year grinding down on public services in the way that the Coalition and Osborne did after 2010. No doubt in that period there will be any number of hard and difficult choices to make but right now this was a moral imperative and it shouldn't have taken persistent pressure from a 23 year old footballer to recognise it.
Biden’s election will be seen by the history books as another nail in the coffin of “Brexit”.
On topic: The problem with Hunt is that, although he is “papabile” and probably very electable, he seems to have no followers on the backbench and his public profile is close to non-existent.
Indeed, despite his holding a senior ministry for years, most people would struggle to pick him in a line-up.
No, the Tories will go with Rishi. They are half way there already, since Rishi seems to be given the all-clear to mount a one-man PR campaign. When Boris decides to go, It will be a coronation.
Did I miss discussion of this very revealing story (Sunak has used the conservative oak tree logo, with his own name instead of "conservative," in a furlough announcement)?
It appears some in the Party complained that Rishi failed to mention the word “Conservative” in his overt self-promotion campaign.
So he has adopted the oak, with his name underneath it, as his new “logo”.
It’s all very slick, but I’m not sure why Boris lets him get away with it all. Not only does it blur the appropriate distinction between HMG and political advertising, it can only be read as part of a campaign to be next PM.
I don’t trust Rishi, and this one of the reasons why.
Is it necessary to trust politicians? They are supposed to stab each other in the back. I'm not sure it has any bearing on whether they can deliver an effective government when in power.
Supposed to? I thought the point of politicians was to implement policies that suit the country. There's no reason why that has to involve backstabbing. Politics could revolve around open debate and consensus. In some places, it does. I think there's a lot of people who don't spot how bitterly adversarial the UK is in its politics, because all they really know to compare it to is the USA. It doesn't have to be this way.
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
In my lifetime five prime-ministers have be “elected” in your terms (two Labour and three Tory) and five “imposed” (again two Labour, three Tory). Interestingly all three of the imposed Tories remained as PM after the subsequent elections (I was going to say won, but I’m not sure that applies to May), while both the Labour ones lost.
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
To be honest if the best criticism of Hunt we can make on here is reaching back 10 years to find some highly tenuous rumoured (and totally unsubstantiated) link with Murdoch and some minor suggested tweaks to the Olympics opening ceremony 8 years ago, which was in another age, then we can probably conclude Hunt is ok.
He was a bit stupid with the Murdoxh thing though. He should have known not to speak to anyone.
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
It's not that difficult. Why is Boris PM? 1 Because he is good at winning elections 2 Because no-one else was available to lead the Tory party who was trusted by supporters of Brexit 3 Because he faced opposition from a then unelectable Labour party leader at the GE 4 Because after the Brexit referendum there was no coalescence around a plan for sensibly delivering it other than Boris's not very good one 5 Because Labour have never had and still have not got a deliverable plan for our relationship with the EU.
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
To be honest if the best criticism of Hunt we can make on here is reaching back 10 years to find some highly tenuous rumoured (and totally unsubstantiated) link with Murdoch and some minor suggested tweaks to the Olympics opening ceremony 8 years ago, which was in another age, then we can probably conclude Hunt is ok.
I am reminded of the scandal of Biden plagiarising that Kinnock speech. He seems to have recovered ok.
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
In my lifetime five prime-ministers have be “elected” in your terms (two Labour and three Tory) and five “imposed” (again two Labour, three Tory). Interestingly all three of the imposed Tories remained as PM after the subsequent elections (I was going to say won, but I’m not sure that applies to May), while both the Labour ones lost.
The caving in to Marcus Rashford was so inevitable that I genuinely find it bewildering that a populist politician like Boris was not on from the get go.
On the Olympics opening ceremony what I've seen is that Hunt was supportive of the NHS section but just thought it was a little too long (and, indeed, it was rather) and wanted a bit on the WWII/Spitfires/Blitz and victory over the Nazis included as well (which in reality would have included a walk on part by some extras and a brief 2-3 minute emphasis) as it was for many other parts, which I could have seen working well.
He was Culture Secretary at the time so his comments made sense.
Most of the evidence comes from the 2016 BBC documentary about the Olympics after the event. Tessa Jowell said that Hunt wanted to be hands-on regarding the artistic content and that there was a lot of tension between him and Boyle. Boyle confirms there were stand-offs with "the powers that be", who wanted to scrap or significantly cut the NHS sequence, but doesn't name Hunt personally. And there had been rumours that the government was pushing for changes in the ceremony at the time. Responding to the documentary, Hunt claims he was concerned about the length of the show.
The caving in to Marcus Rashford was so inevitable that I genuinely find it bewildering that a populist politician like Boris was not on from the get go.
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
It's not that difficult. Why is Boris PM? 1 Because he is good at winning elections 2 Because no-one else was available to lead the Tory party who was trusted by supporters of Brexit 3 Because he faced opposition from a then unelectable Labour party leader at the GE 4 Because after the Brexit referendum there was no coalescence around a plan for sensibly delivering it other than Boris's not very good one 5 Because Labour have never had and still have not got a deliverable plan for our relationship with the EU.
1 simply restates my point - why do people like him? 2—4 agreed. 5 agreed but neither do the Tories.
Morning, can I ask what current thinking on AZ is? Is it still looking like Biden will carry it? I have a small bet on Trump 210-239 ECVs which I will lose if it goes red
From the numbers I'd say "too close to call".On the other hand it looks like PA is well beyond Trump's reach:
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
Ultimately some of these won out as Churchill and the Dambusters featured in the introductory sequence.
1,500 civilian casualties on Operation Chastise. It's the typification of the Olympic spirit.
Tory plans for an homage to the firebombing of Dresden and the suppression of the Mau Mau were vetoed at the last minute.
Sadly, there are exigencies where renaming the Nelson Mandela George Floyd room after someone else is an insufficient response. I expect you believe that Harris should have organised a series of demos against Hitler?
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
To be honest if the best criticism of Hunt we can make on here is reaching back 10 years to find some highly tenuous rumoured (and totally unsubstantiated) link with Murdoch and some minor suggested tweaks to the Olympics opening ceremony 8 years ago, which was in another age, then we can probably conclude Hunt is ok.
I am reminded of the scandal of Biden plagiarising that Kinnock speech. He seems to have recovered ok.
Never understood the issue with "plagiarising" Kinnock's speech. Politicians "borrow" sayings and slogans from other politicians every single day without it being commented on.
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
People definitely remember it, though I thought it typically saccharine.
And it would be good to have these same positive qualities back in Whitehall and Westminster too. Time for the decent Conservatives to bin Johnson and his crew.
And it would be good to have these same positive qualities back in Whitehall and Westminster too. Time for the decent Conservatives to bin Johnson and his crew.
A lot of the decent ones were purged. All of those now in parliament stood on the Johnsonist ticket. How far could/should they go in repudiating Johnsonism? Will they be able to walk away without the stain of it on their reputation? It's the same with Labour. Those who served with Corbyn aren't being allowed to forget they served with Corbyn.
And this is the best legal advice that Trump can afford?
I think whatever he may be able to afford he long ago crossed into 'I want a lawyer who tells me what I want to hear and does exactly as I say' territory.
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
It's not that difficult. Why is Boris PM? 1 Because he is good at winning elections 2 Because no-one else was available to lead the Tory party who was trusted by supporters of Brexit 3 Because he faced opposition from a then unelectable Labour party leader at the GE 4 Because after the Brexit referendum there was no coalescence around a plan for sensibly delivering it other than Boris's not very good one 5 Because Labour have never had and still have not got a deliverable plan for our relationship with the EU.
1 simply restates my point - why do people like him? 2—4 agreed. 5 agreed but neither do the Tories.
People like Boris on first meeting because he's really good at making people like him. All politicians, all successful salespeople have that talent, but Boris has it in spades. It's why he keeps getting the job- or the girl- of his dreams.
p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting?
Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
I thought you worked in advertising
We don't use big words in advertising!
didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?
The Meaning of Liff by Douglas Adams comprises a compendium of useful words for such elusive meanings but I don't think anything there quite fits the bill.
I'm not clear that Hunt would win a members vote but would be happy with him or Sunak - first party with an Asian MP would be a wonderful riposte to to Labour's record on sex and race equality. On Biden - definitely the right choice given the options for me but modest expectations are the best approach to what he can achieve. Then one might be pleasantly surprised. Saviour of western democracy etc, etc, seems a little ott at this point.
I’m afraid the first Asian MP was a Liberal, back in 1892... (I know it was a typo, and I’m being a hypocrite to popinjay it out, but I was surprised just how long ago it was).
Morning, can I ask what current thinking on AZ is? Is it still looking like Biden will carry it? I have a small bet on Trump 210-239 ECVs which I will lose if it goes red
From the numbers I'd say "too close to call".On the other hand it looks like PA is well beyond Trump's reach:
Morning, can I ask what current thinking on AZ is? Is it still looking like Biden will carry it? I have a small bet on Trump 210-239 ECVs which I will lose if it goes red
It's going to be very close, but the Maricopa ballots which make up the bulk of the remainder have been less Trump-led each day as we get more and more provisional ballots in the mix. Biden is a strong favourite, but far from certain.
Sucks to be a back bencher sometimes. At least no one was mid interview defending it when the u turn came.
Being a back bencher is one of the worst jobs in the world. The perceived status is all that it offers.
Nonsense. 4-5 days a week you get direct access to Ministers making decisions affecting 70 million people. 2-3 days a week you get to help people in your home area with personal difficulties. Yes, you're not Prime Minister, or even a junior Minister, get over it. It's one of the most interesting jobs in Britain, and I don't regret a second of it.
Biden’s election will be seen by the history books as another nail in the coffin of “Brexit”.
On topic: The problem with Hunt is that, although he is “papabile” and probably very electable, he seems to have no followers on the backbench and his public profile is close to non-existent.
Indeed, despite his holding a senior ministry for years, most people would struggle to pick him in a line-up.
No, the Tories will go with Rishi. They are half way there already, since Rishi seems to be given the all-clear to mount a one-man PR campaign. When Boris decides to go, It will be a coronation.
Did I miss discussion of this very revealing story (Sunak has used the conservative oak tree logo, with his own name instead of "conservative," in a furlough announcement)?
It appears some in the Party complained that Rishi failed to mention the word “Conservative” in his overt self-promotion campaign.
So he has adopted the oak, with his name underneath it, as his new “logo”.
It’s all very slick, but I’m not sure why Boris lets him get away with it all. Not only does it blur the appropriate distinction between HMG and political advertising, it can only be read as part of a campaign to be next PM.
I don’t trust Rishi, and this one of the reasons why.
Is it necessary to trust politicians? They are supposed to stab each other in the back. I'm not sure it has any bearing on whether they can deliver an effective government when in power.
Supposed to? I thought the point of politicians was to implement policies that suit the country. There's no reason why that has to involve backstabbing. Politics could revolve around open debate and consensus. In some places, it does. I think there's a lot of people who don't spot how bitterly adversarial the UK is in its politics, because all they really know to compare it to is the USA. It doesn't have to be this way.
Well said. I'm prepared to accept that in adversarial system there will be some ruthlessness and that's not totally a bad thing, but as I've noted before just because the job might mean being a little bit of a shit doesn't mean you have to be a complete shit.
Morning, can I ask what current thinking on AZ is? Is it still looking like Biden will carry it? I have a small bet on Trump 210-239 ECVs which I will lose if it goes red
From the numbers I'd say "too close to call".On the other hand it looks like PA is well beyond Trump's reach:
Thanks. Yes, obviously no worries about PA.
Fox will be worrying about AZ. Wrong calls are very rare, given the calling criteria.
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
People definitely remember it, though I thought it typically saccharine.
I remember the NHS bit and the Bond/Queen bit. Mr Bean, the industrial revolution? No. But that's OK - something like that has to include something for everyone.
Morning, can I ask what current thinking on AZ is? Is it still looking like Biden will carry it? I have a small bet on Trump 210-239 ECVs which I will lose if it goes red
From the numbers I'd say "too close to call".On the other hand it looks like PA is well beyond Trump's reach:
Thanks, can you provide a link as to where you got this from?
Comments
Boris isn't going to lead the Conservatives into the next election, which means another Conservative will become PM.
Biden was arguably still favourite even when he went out crazily in the betting in the middle of the night, but the big moment was not long before 10am on Thursday, when it became clear just how favourable the mail in votes were going to be.
After that, it was a case of whether you believed Trump might have legal options, but the votes were always heading to Biden.
Just for interest, the corresponding estimates for Pennsylvania and Nevada are:
PA: Biden's lead rises from 37.3k now to 49.7k
NV: Biden's lead rises from 27.5k now to 31.8k
Danny Boyle went out of his way to make sure that all the aspects of British culture and history that they brainstormed got a mention somewhere. It really did have something for everyone, which was a key reason for its success.
But the more fundamental point is that he had taken the job on the basis that he had total editorial freedom and control - and here was Hunt, as health secretary no less, trying to force him to make major cuts.
Of course he can't run or win on the strictly Cameroon platform of 2010, or even 2015 (politics has changed) but he can offer good, competent and measured Government which I suspect is both what Britain will want and need for the next few years.
NC are still publishing their Absentee Data to https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=Press/NC Absentee Stats for 2020 General Election/
On November 4th the stats for mail voting were:
977186 processed
For the 7th it is
1037901
So that means there has been an increase of 60,715 votes that have yet to be counted and added to totals.
Even if that was 100% Biden he can't win.
There are 40,000 provisional ballots.
IF (big if) all the provisionals were accepted (they won't be) and added to the mail, AND the total group splits 76/24 for Biden then he wins.
It's not going to happen. I'm going to go take the painful loss on my NC position.
He may give up the legal fight, but it wouldn't surprise me if he just says he's been let down by his own side (and they were probably always on the side of the "deep state/establishment" anyway).
If Trump TV is the endgame now, then he's more likely to want to go out as a cheated winner.
But pre election the likes of Sunak & Patel better reflect the memberships views.
(Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre.
Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
As an aside, Sunak's got a lay of 3.85 for next PM. For those who backed Mr. Thompson's ultra-tasty 251 tip on him getting the gig, that's well worth a look.
He was Culture Secretary at the time so his comments made sense.
With that achieved and a solid parliamentary majority on the table changing the leader is very tempting.
Who in the Conservative Parliamentary Party does Boris not fear? Hunt, Raab, Sunak.
Trump is going. Could Boris follow him soon?
On topic:
The problem with Hunt is that, although he is “papabile” and probably very electable, he seems to have no followers on the backbench and his public profile is close to non-existent.
Indeed, despite his holding a senior ministry for years, most people would struggle to pick him in a line-up.
No, the Tories will go with Rishi.
They are half way there already, since Rishi seems to be given the all-clear to mount a one-man PR campaign. When Boris decides to go, It will be a coronation.
The belief they're all headbanging ultra hard right wingers isn't really true. They can be led which is why it's so important he looks Prime Ministerial and does well amongst MPs.
Sunak would be the one to beat, for now, but I have a feeling his halo won't last.
Have a good morning all.
Ultimately some of these won out as Churchill and the Dambusters featured in the introductory sequence.
So he has adopted the oak, with his name underneath it, as his new “logo”.
It’s all very slick, but I’m not sure why Boris lets him get away with it all. Not only does it blur the appropriate distinction between HMG and political advertising, it can only be read as part of a campaign to be next PM.
I don’t trust Rishi, and this one of the reasons why.
His new Junior Doctors contract is a fiasco, making for very complicated and inflexible rota writing, and failed in its claimed benefit to 7 day non emergency working. Hunt was astute enough to declare victory then abandon any attempt to revise Consultant contracts.
I don't object to him as much as some other former Health Secs. I would rate Patricia Hewitt and Alan Milburn as the worst of my life in the NHS. Hunt was the best at the FCO for a long time.
I think though Hunt won't have the support of either the Commons to make the final two, nor the Brexit obsessed party membership. Brexit is not going away as an issue, as it is not a stable state, but rather a state of permanent negotiations, often divisive over touchstone issues, such as food standards and economic protection.
I am mildly green on Hunt but don't expect it to win.
Going through three years misery out of patriotic and party duty? Sounds like it's right up TM's street.
🤔
For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not implying that Trump is in his right mind.
Glad I didn't volunteer now.
Of course at some point the bills for this largesse will come due. Covid has been even more expensive than Gordon Brown's boom and bust and it will likely take longer to rebalance our economy again than after 2008. That means a long haul of tight public spending year after year grinding down on public services in the way that the Coalition and Osborne did after 2010. No doubt in that period there will be any number of hard and difficult choices to make but right now this was a moral imperative and it shouldn't have taken persistent pressure from a 23 year old footballer to recognise it.
It doesn't have to be this way.
Interestingly all three of the imposed Tories remained as PM after the subsequent elections (I was going to say won, but I’m not sure that applies to May), while both the Labour ones lost.
1 Because he is good at winning elections
2 Because no-one else was available to lead the Tory party who was trusted by supporters of Brexit
3 Because he faced opposition from a then unelectable Labour party leader at the GE
4 Because after the Brexit referendum there was no coalescence around a plan for sensibly delivering it other than Boris's not very good one
5 Because Labour have never had and still have not got a deliverable plan for our relationship with the EU.
None of them speak well of him.
2—4 agreed.
5 agreed but neither do the Tories.
Nelson MandelaGeorge Floyd room after someone else is an insufficient response. I expect you believe that Harris should have organised a series of demos against Hitler?https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1325366702662705152
It's the same with Labour. Those who served with Corbyn aren't being allowed to forget they served with Corbyn.
Trouble is, that's all he's good at.
(I know it was a typo, and I’m being a hypocrite to popinjay it out, but I was surprised just how long ago it was).