Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Has to be Hunt – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited November 2020 in General
imageHas to be Hunt – politicalbetting.com

Boris Johnson is losing the support of his party. There are enough straws in the wind now to indicate his perceived usefulness is coming to an end, and his popularity is rapidly diminishing in the country. If there’s anything more likely to confirm MPs worries it’s the polling, and the most recent show him behind Keir Starmer as best Prime Minister and his support fracturing in the Red Wall. Many have had concerns about Boris all along, and many more since the early summer, but a lot has changed in the last 2 months.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    This is an excellent thread, thank you for it Casino Royale.

    I traded out my 14/1 on Rishi Sunak yesterday. Why? Because there are too many curve balls around at the moment and I think you're right: he is 'being viewed with rose-tinted spectacles.'

    I agree with your comments about Hunt.

    The issue though here is that it's the tory party membership who get to choose and I could possibly see them keeping on the right. Raab blew it during Boris' virus break: he just looked like a frightened rabbit. Patel comes across as a sociopath and Gove is brilliant on detail but a backstabbing schemer.

    I'm just about to buy on Hunt following your suggestion, but will keep it modest for the same reasons I cashed out on Sunak.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    And on another of your tips ...

    Hi all - is there any value in the bet that was suggested on here earlier - I can't remember I think it was by Casino - for Biden to get 52-54.999% of the vote? Trading on Betfair at 5.1 and I've just noticed that California have only counted 66% of votes, and New York has a fair few to go as well.

    I bought on this but I think it's touch and go. It might be 50:50 which I guess makes the bet value.

    I'm expecting to lose but it might get close enough for me to trade out.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    I knew The Johnson Project would be a complete catastrofuck but I didn't think we'd be into tory leader Tinder swiping this early into it. Hunt has failed several Brexit purity tests so he's too remainy for the tory membership and too didelphine for normal people.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Dura_Ace said:

    Hunt has failed several Brexit purity tests so he's too remainy for the tory membership

    Perhaps, but come next year Brexit purity may not appear such a glorious accolade.
  • Hunt's great weakness is that he was the Health Secretary who declined to act on the findings of Exercise Cygnus into our preparedness for a flu pandemic. Instead of rectifying shortfalls of capacity and equipment, the report was suppressed.

    If Covid-19 is still a major issue, I'd expect Hunt's rivals to make hay with this, and if the pandemic is over, I'd expect a public enquiry which would embarrass Hunt for the same reason.

    Then again, I forecast Boris would not be made leader because of his obvious character flaws going back years but Boris had a clear lead in the polls, and MPs held their noses or did not notice the smell in the first place.

    So imo Hunt is fatally flawed unless, at the time of the leadership election, he polls far better than his rivals.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    DJL, again perhaps but he was very clearcut back in January/February about what actions we needed to take and why. Clearly having a Chinese wife and having lived in Asia he knew his onions. With hindsight he was the only Conservative politician who was right about the virus.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Interesting thread. I guess the question is when will the change happen? May held on much longer than anyone would have expected after the 2017 election, though that may have been due to not knowing what would come next. I think what you'd ideally want is a Micheal Howard style coronation within the PCP. However, I fear Hunt may have missed his chance last time. It's a very different PCP now, I wouldn't count on the likes of Dehenna Davison sharing Casino Royale's views on Hunt.
  • Donald Trump increased his share of the popular vote by 6M from 2016, so the views of "Biden switchers" may be less significant than the article assumes.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Back on the Brexit point, Johnson and hard Brexit are now in trouble. Biden has made it absolutely clear that in any talks of a US-UK trade deal he will under no circumstances permit a return to a hard border in Ireland. And don't forget, in his own words, Biden is Irish.

    I think there's a secondary aspect though. Joe Biden is also a fan of the EU. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EU and the President elect don't cosy up and play tough with the UK.

    Biden should outlast Johnson in office.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    I am not so sure that COVID will be resolved by Spring 2021. Hunt is in about the same place as Labour on this. Tory MPs could be looking for an alternative to Hunt, such as Raab.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    edited November 2020
    fox327 said:

    I am not so sure that COVID will be resolved by Spring 2021. Hunt is in about the same place as Labour on this. Tory MPs could be looking for an alternative to Hunt, such as Raab.

    I think this is crucial. As good as Hunt looked back in April, if COVID is NOT done and dusted by Spring 2021, then we will be in tough choices territory. I'm not sure Hunt is the man for that.
  • fox327 said:

    I am not so sure that COVID will be resolved by Spring 2021. Hunt is in about the same place as Labour on this. Tory MPs could be looking for an alternative to Hunt, such as Raab.

    Hunt and Raab both stood in 2019, of course. Despite having read about this just yesterday, I'm so sleep-deprived I cannot remember anything about it except that Michael Gove lost because of his drugs hypocrisy. Nonetheless, it might be worth a quick check of how Hunt and Raab were received last time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Well done Casino! A good read and if I had to choose amongst that bunch of miscreants I'd go for Hunt too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    It nice to be able to agree with Casino for a change, who has written an excellent header (and with not a straw person in sight!).

    In terms of real politics, the lead sets out what the Tories should do, both in their interests and ours, but not what they will do or want to do. I guess we will have to wait until HY gets up to set out why it won’t happen.

    The latter is my reservation. Sensible moderates who don’t appear to be driven by strong ideology can struggle in political parties, since most of the members and elected representatives doing to choosing are the opposite. There has to be a desperation factor to drive them in that direction - desperation to overcome their opponent’s success or desperation to escape from the character of the incumbent.

    The one thing Casino’s bet does have going for it is that both of these desperations are likely to be on the increase within the Tories as the months go by.

    I just wonder whether they can ever return to sensible in just one bound?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    fox327 said:

    I am not so sure that COVID will be resolved by Spring 2021. Hunt is in about the same place as Labour on this. Tory MPs could be looking for an alternative to Hunt, such as Raab.

    Covid won't be done.

    The question is whether an end to Covid is in sight, or not.

    If there's a working vaccine (and/or something like this is in mass production), then we will all probably deal OK with restrictions.

    It's restrictions without end that we cannot stand. "I'm sorry, but you have to hold on for another 10 to 15 weeks while we vaccinate the most vulnerable 30% of the population and those most likely to transmit Covid" is very different from "I'm sorry, but you can't go out, and I don't know when that will change."
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
  • Dura_Ace said:
    A bunch of dildos.

    Outside a shop selling a bunch of dildos.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
  • FPT

    You can now buy Biden on the next President market at 1.05. There's about £45k available. This looks like a pretty risk free way of making a few bob quickly. I had a look at the rules and Betfair would have some justification in closing the market and paying out now. I expect they will hang on though until all the States are 100% counted, which should be later this week, Alaska being the last to report.

    I wouldn't expect legal challenges or recounts to delay settlement. So, 5% interest over five days or so. Sounds ok to me.

    Edit: Of course if Donald chucks the towel in sooner you would expect payout immediately. I read a Fox story suggesting he might follow his lawyers' advice and quit in the next couple of days. Hope so, and not just because of my bank balance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited November 2020
    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.

    An incredibly astute judge of it. No sickly NHS nonsense, no Brexit.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    What are the odds of its use in the same thread as a new poster @oniscoid shows up?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    The Biden-Harris Presidency will be groundbreaking.

    For the first time there will be a rescue dog in the White House:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/07/932624210/major-and-champ-are-major-champs-in-this-election-dogs-return-to-the-white-house
  • p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Apart from its more obvious virtues, PB.com is agreat place to improve your vocabulary. We should have a 'word of the day' spot to help keep our minds expanding.

    Excellent article, CR, but I won't join in. My devout conviction was that Trump, Johnson and Brexit were all bad ideas so my record at predicting the future is looking a bit ropey.

    Hunt does looks an eminently plausible suggestion to me but I'll pass if it's ok with everybody.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    This sentiment could absolubtely kill the GOP in the Georgia run offs

    https://twitter.com/mki4agze/status/1325326824012976128
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Dura_Ace said:
    What's happened to Rudy Guiliani? He's gone from hero of 9/11 to a joke and it looks like he's doing it deliberately. Could he be short of cash?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/giuliani-releases-bizarre-video-declaring-trump-won-the-presidency?r=US&IR=T
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    The Biden-Harris Presidency will be groundbreaking.

    For the first time there will be a rescue dog in the White House:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/07/932624210/major-and-champ-are-major-champs-in-this-election-dogs-return-to-the-white-house

    That's a lovely story.

    They seem like great people.
  • Excellent persuasively argued thread header. While Hunt does have “questions to answer” over Operation Cygnus, they likely won’t be asked for a while yet, and with Johnson trailing “Don’t know” in the “Best PM” stakes, double digits behind SKS, I doubt he’s long for No.10. Raab fluffed his audition and Sunak needs more time in office. Anyone closely associated with Brexit, like Gove will be put out to pasture.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Biden-Harris Presidency will be groundbreaking.

    For the first time there will be a rescue dog in the White House:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/07/932624210/major-and-champ-are-major-champs-in-this-election-dogs-return-to-the-white-house

    For the avoidance of doubt I should point out that a rescue dog is one that has been rescued and not one that is doing the rescuing.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.

    An incredibly astute judge of it. No sickly NHS nonsense, no Brexit.
    FFS. I'm tempted to call you an idiot for that comment.

    The NHS, in case you hadn't noticed, is held in high esteem right now except for the Far Right idealogues.

    I've lived all over the world and the NHS is fantastic. Yes of course it has faults, some of that down to the Blair years for top-loading management, but it's a superb health care provider at the point of need, regardless of circumstance. I know that sticks in the throat for Trump-types but for the rest of the normal human race, it's brilliant.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Pulpstar said:

    This sentiment could absolubtely kill the GOP in the Georgia run offs

    https://twitter.com/mki4agze/status/1325326824012976128

    Yep, we could see the Winchester effect again. Plus, Americans like winners, and US politics likes momentum. It’ll be interesting to see what the odds are when they go up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    Something to do with depression, I think.

    However is this the Glad Confident Morning that was never going to come?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Guiliani link worth watching for its contradictions -often in the same paragraph- and it's sheer loopiness.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVSJriRbxQQ&feature=youtu.be
  • Interesting background on Harris’ parents:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/us/kamala-harris-parents.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    Something to do with depression, I think.

    However is this the Glad Confident Morning that was never going to come?
    Opossums, it seems.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    rcs1000 said:

    The Biden-Harris Presidency will be groundbreaking.

    For the first time there will be a rescue dog in the White House:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/07/932624210/major-and-champ-are-major-champs-in-this-election-dogs-return-to-the-white-house

    For the avoidance of doubt I should point out that a rescue dog is one that has been rescued and not one that is doing the rescuing.
    It’s not going to tell him if someone’s fallen down the old mine?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
    We don't use big words in advertising!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.

    An incredibly astute judge of it. No sickly NHS nonsense, no Brexit.
    FFS. I'm tempted to call you an idiot for that comment.

    The NHS, in case you hadn't noticed, is held in high esteem right now except for the Far Right idealogues.

    I've lived all over the world and the NHS is fantastic. Yes of course it has faults, some of that down to the Blair years for top-loading management, but it's a superb health care provider at the point of need, regardless of circumstance. I know that sticks in the throat for Trump-types but for the rest of the normal human race, it's brilliant.
    Don't call me a Trump type and don't talk rubbish. Unless you have been both acutely and chronically ill in all those countries, while enjoying the rights of full citizenship in each, what on earth has your personal experience got to do with it? We have doctors and nurses and hospitals and a scheme in place to make them affordable to everyone, like every single first world country on the planet (I don't count the US). You are like a urine soaked drunk at midnight at Piccadilly Circus telling anyone who'll listen that other capital cities may have efficient underground transport networks but only we have the dear old Lahndahn Undergrahnd, Gawd bless it.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    edited November 2020
    IanB2 said:

    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.

    He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    Something to do with depression, I think.

    However is this the Glad Confident Morning that was never going to come?
    Opossums, it seems.
    It's the eyes, man, look at the eyes.

    Jeremy Hunt yesterday...


  • IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Biden-Harris Presidency will be groundbreaking.

    For the first time there will be a rescue dog in the White House:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-2020-election-results/2020/11/07/932624210/major-and-champ-are-major-champs-in-this-election-dogs-return-to-the-white-house

    For the avoidance of doubt I should point out that a rescue dog is one that has been rescued and not one that is doing the rescuing.
    It’s not going to tell him if someone’s fallen down the old mine?
    surely it should be called a rescued dog then?
  • Good morning, everyone.

    An intriguing suggestion. Hmm.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Interesting background on Harris’ parents:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/us/kamala-harris-parents.html

    ........and a Jewish husband. She's covering all the bases.
  • Marcus Rashford: Boris Johnson relents over footballer's campaign with £396m food package

    Marcus Rashford's campaign to tackle holiday hunger and child poverty in England has been addressed with a £396m package in a government climbdown.

    The prime minister telephoned the footballer on Saturday to tell him of the new plans for targeted support over Christmas, Easter and Summer holidays.

    Rashford said nearly 1.7 million children would be helped, adding he had a good conversation with Boris Johnson.

    Previously the government had argued Universal Credit was enough support.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54841316
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.

    An incredibly astute judge of it. No sickly NHS nonsense, no Brexit.
    FFS. I'm tempted to call you an idiot for that comment.

    The NHS, in case you hadn't noticed, is held in high esteem right now except for the Far Right idealogues.

    I've lived all over the world and the NHS is fantastic. Yes of course it has faults, some of that down to the Blair years for top-loading management, but it's a superb health care provider at the point of need, regardless of circumstance. I know that sticks in the throat for Trump-types but for the rest of the normal human race, it's brilliant.
    Don't call me a Trump type and don't talk rubbish. Unless you have been both acutely and chronically ill in all those countries, while enjoying the rights of full citizenship in each, what on earth has your personal experience got to do with it? We have doctors and nurses and hospitals and a scheme in place to make them affordable to everyone, like every single first world country on the planet (I don't count the US). You are like a urine soaked drunk at midnight at Piccadilly Circus telling anyone who'll listen that other capital cities may have efficient underground transport networks but only we have the dear old Lahndahn Undergrahnd, Gawd bless it.
    I'm a fan of the NHS, but of course it's got it's faults. Like the London Underground. It was an early system of 'cradle to grave' health care and like every first and pretty well early anything other people looked at it when setting up theirs and though 'Yes, but'.
    Same with the Underground. Later mass transport systems have seen it's faults and avoided them. It's also old, and sometimes shows it's age!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
    We don't use big words in advertising!
    didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Pulpstar said:

    This sentiment could absolubtely kill the GOP in the Georgia run offs

    https://twitter.com/mki4agze/status/1325326824012976128

    I don't think they'll need to rely on that. The zetgeist has shifted in front of our eyes. There's only one side to be on now. Even the Proud Boys will start wearing sequins.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,576
    edited November 2020
    The Star on American politics: the senile one beats the lunatic

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1325201200116068352/photo/1
  • Thank you all for your kind words.

    I'm looking after my toddler this morning (she got up at 6.30am) so I don't know when I'm going to get a chance to engage with all your comments, but I appreciate them all and am reading them as and when I can!
  • rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
    We don't use big words in advertising!
    didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
    What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited November 2020

    Thank you all for your kind words.

    I'm looking after my toddler this morning (she got up at 6.30am) so I don't know when I'm going to get a chance to engage with all your comments, but I appreciate them all and am reading them as and when I can!

    Does she have a nap after lunch? You've got a lively morning in front of you, but enjoy it! And can I add my thanks!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.

    An incredibly astute judge of it. No sickly NHS nonsense, no Brexit.
    FFS. I'm tempted to call you an idiot for that comment.

    The NHS, in case you hadn't noticed, is held in high esteem right now except for the Far Right idealogues.

    I've lived all over the world and the NHS is fantastic. Yes of course it has faults, some of that down to the Blair years for top-loading management, but it's a superb health care provider at the point of need, regardless of circumstance. I know that sticks in the throat for Trump-types but for the rest of the normal human race, it's brilliant.
    Don't call me a Trump type and don't talk rubbish. Unless you have been both acutely and chronically ill in all those countries, while enjoying the rights of full citizenship in each, what on earth has your personal experience got to do with it? We have doctors and nurses and hospitals and a scheme in place to make them affordable to everyone, like every single first world country on the planet (I don't count the US). You are like a urine soaked drunk at midnight at Piccadilly Circus telling anyone who'll listen that other capital cities may have efficient underground transport networks but only we have the dear old Lahndahn Undergrahnd, Gawd bless it.
    I'm a fan of the NHS, but of course it's got it's faults. Like the London Underground. It was an early system of 'cradle to grave' health care and like every first and pretty well early anything other people looked at it when setting up theirs and though 'Yes, but'.
    Same with the Underground. Later mass transport systems have seen it's faults and avoided them. It's also old, and sometimes shows it's age!
    It's absolutely fine! Or rather it isn't (call me treacherous scum, but looking at the survival stats there's dozens of furrin elf services i would prefer to treat me for cancer or covid), but it does OK. It's the relentless mawkish jingoism about it that's the problem.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
    We don't use big words in advertising!
    didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
    Beanz Meanz Heinz or Gota Lota Bottle are advertising middle sized words. Think two sylables max
  • rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
    We don't use big words in advertising!
    didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
    What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?
    The Meaning of Liff by Douglas Adams comprises a compendium of useful words for such elusive meanings but I don't think anything there quite fits the bill.

    We will have to invent one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Roger said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This sentiment could absolubtely kill the GOP in the Georgia run offs

    https://twitter.com/mki4agze/status/1325326824012976128

    I don't think they'll need to rely on that. The zetgeist has shifted in front of our eyes. There's only one side to be on now. Even the Proud Boys will start wearing sequins.
    Dems have the Big Mo, as i was saying earlier.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?

    Did Antifrank not pioneer that technique here?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    The problem is that whichever Tory turd you role in glitter it remains that, a second rate politician disguised as something capable but is no more than an individual caught between a lunatic members party or a dysfunctional PM. There are no stars in the party, no intelligence and no vision.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    PS. Guiliani is definitely taking the piss. If you look at the video he does a cigar commercial half way through at about 10 mins. And his hand is covered in ink
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Roger said:

    Even the Proud Boys will start wearing sequins.

    https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1325258258744025091
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Marcus Rashford: Boris Johnson relents over footballer's campaign with £396m food package

    Marcus Rashford's campaign to tackle holiday hunger and child poverty in England has been addressed with a £396m package in a government climbdown.

    The prime minister telephoned the footballer on Saturday to tell him of the new plans for targeted support over Christmas, Easter and Summer holidays.

    Rashford said nearly 1.7 million children would be helped, adding he had a good conversation with Boris Johnson.

    Previously the government had argued Universal Credit was enough support.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54841316

    They have just been waiting to get it out under cover of Biden’s victory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    nichomar said:

    There are no stars in the party, no intelligence and no vision.

    A deliberate policy by BoZo. No threats.
  • Scott_xP said:

    What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?

    Did Antifrank not pioneer that technique here?
    We also used to have a regular poster called Frank. I guess he and Antifrank once tried to post at the same time and both disappeared as a result.

    Shame.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1325254461049073664

    4 seasons. Total landscaping.

    It all makes sense now...
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889
    Roger said:

    Guiliani link worth watching for its contradictions -often in the same paragraph- and it's sheer loopiness.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVSJriRbxQQ&feature=youtu.be

    And this is the best legal advice that Trump can afford?
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
  • Scott_xP said:

    What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?

    Did Antifrank not pioneer that technique here?
    Possibly, antifrank being one such word; iirc it is pension law jargon meaning lord knows what.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited November 2020
    Useful Information Discovered Too Late Department.

    On the NYT state election results page, down below the headline result is an expandable list of counties, with leading candidate, margin of lead and estimate of votes reported so far. Obviously this is exactly what is needed for a decent estimate of the final result.

    Last night at midnight I went through the calculation for Arizona and estimated that Biden's lead would rise from 21.1k then to 23.5k.

    It seems around 23k ballots were reported overnight, and Biden's lead shrank to 18.6k. But repeating the calculation still shows precisely the same final estimate: 23.5k.

    Unless this consistency is a fluke, I wonder why the pundits haven't been doing this kind of calculation. If it holds up, an awful lot of uncertainty could have been avoided over the last few days (and an awful lot of money made).

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    The tabulation error in GA when corrected netted Biden about 2k votes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?

    Did Antifrank not pioneer that technique here?
    Possibly, antifrank being one such word; iirc it is pension law jargon meaning lord knows what.
    There's a PhD in the study of PB usernames. How else would I know what double carpets and tissue prices are?
  • Thank you all for your kind words.

    I'm looking after my toddler this morning (she got up at 6.30am) so I don't know when I'm going to get a chance to engage with all your comments, but I appreciate them all and am reading them as and when I can!

    Enjoy! They are particularly delightful at that age, especially when they try and lift your eyelids to see if you are awake. :)
  • The Betfair Biden paradox: wishing Betfair would settle so you can take the value prices in the unsettled markets. 1.05 now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh god, Rubin's timeline is a delight. Has he dropped his "neutral" shtick these days? It's just full on vote rigging conspiracies
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
    We don't use big words in advertising!
    didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
    Construed as a token it's waaay out on the right of the curve. As a type pretty much in the middle.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting? :wink::smiley:

    Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
    I thought you worked in advertising
    We don't use big words in advertising!
    didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
    Beanz Meanz Heinz or Gota Lota Bottle are advertising middle sized words. Think two sylablessonants max
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Pulpstar said:

    The tabulation error in GA when corrected netted Biden about 2k votes.

    I wonder if that county down there has finished copying its ballots by hand onto the correct sized paper?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Roger said:

    Where's 'Downfall' when you need it

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1324464485910937601
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Chris said:

    Useful Information Discovered Too Late Department.

    On the NYT state election results page, down below the headline result is an expandable list of counties, with leading candidate, margin of lead and estimate of votes reported so far. Obviously this is exactly what is needed for a decent estimate of the final result.

    Last night at midnight I went through the calculation for Arizona and estimated that Biden's lead would rise from 21.1k then to 23.5k.

    It seems around 23k ballots were reported overnight, and Biden's lead shrank to 18.6k. But repeating the calculation still shows precisely the same final estimate: 23.5k.

    Unless this consistency is a fluke, I wonder why the pundits haven't been doing this kind of calculation. If it holds up, an awful lot of uncertainty could have been avoided over the last few days (and an awful lot of money made).

    Isn't the still-missing piece the difference between early, mail-in and on-the-day votes, both in VI and in terms of which each county started with?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Scott_xP said:

    Roger said:

    Where's 'Downfall' when you need it

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1324464485910937601
    Not really fan of the genre, but that one is really good!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Scott_xP said:

    Roger said:

    Where's 'Downfall' when you need it

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1324464485910937601
    I wonder what new career path the preacher woman who prayed for Donald's re election will take
  • Good article and agree 20/1 is value although would be a clear layer at 5/1 given there is a plausible chance the winner only comes though in ten years time still. An interesting question on these bets is betting next PM or next leader. On betfair he is 20 next PM vs 11 next Tory leader (both in small amounts so could easily move especially after this article).

    If he is more likely to be Tory leader post the GE then next leader is better (despite the worse odds), if more likely to be leader before the next election then next PM is better.

    Id lean towards backing him for Tory leader is better, his most plausible path is Johnson "resolves" Brexit, does just well enough to hang in but loses the GE, probably to a hung parliament. At this point he is the clear leader of the anti-Johnson, competent wing of the party, and there are few rivals for this spot - Javid, who generally seems overrated, is the only one still in parliament and it is hard for others to rise without being involved in government. (Sunak whilst competent, is far more tied to Johnson's success and the Brexit project).
  • Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
  • Marcus Rashford: Boris Johnson relents over footballer's campaign with £396m food package

    Marcus Rashford's campaign to tackle holiday hunger and child poverty in England has been addressed with a £396m package in a government climbdown.

    The prime minister telephoned the footballer on Saturday to tell him of the new plans for targeted support over Christmas, Easter and Summer holidays.

    Rashford said nearly 1.7 million children would be helped, adding he had a good conversation with Boris Johnson.

    Previously the government had argued Universal Credit was enough support.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54841316

    They have just been waiting to get it out under cover of Biden’s victory.
    Well done Marcus and well done the government. Very late, but better late than never!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Roger said:

    I wonder what new career path the preacher woman who prayed for Donald's re election will take

    On the one hand, who cares, but the interesting question I suppose is whether she joins the ranks of those intending to try and cash in with tell all books.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Well done Marcus and well done the government. Very late, but better late than never!

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1325345206636580864
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    So what is 45's route to a second term? How many states does he need get overturned? Maybe GA and PA?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 .... :smiley:

    Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
  • IanB2 said:

    The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.

    Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.

    He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
    Interesting what people remember. I think most people I know would say the NHS but was the most memorable. Perhaps there is a left/right split, so maybe Hunt was right. Although if the right get Bond/HMQ then surely the left deserved something too.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Well done Marcus and well done the government. Very late, but better late than never!

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1325345206636580864
    In Ben Bradley's world drug dealers and pimps are perhaps celebrating and increased their cash flow projections to account for their 30% share of this money.

    The govt and PM havent shafted him, he shafted himself with stupid crass commentary.
  • JACK_W said:

    Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 .... :smiley:

    Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request

    *cough*
This discussion has been closed.