Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
To be honest if the best criticism of Hunt we can make on here is reaching back 10 years to find some highly tenuous rumoured (and totally unsubstantiated) link with Murdoch and some minor suggested tweaks to the Olympics opening ceremony 8 years ago, which was in another age, then we can probably conclude Hunt is ok.
Hunt's perceived strength is sober managerial competence but he's never going to beat SKS on that score. The tories need a contrast to SKS not a knock off they've bought off Aliexpress. They need somebody who can bang the drum for Blut und Boden nationalism. Somebody who gets up in the morning and pisses poppies while humming the theme to Till Death Us Do Part. Step forward Andrew Rosindell MP.
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
They were so unpopular that they won the subsequent elections with over 40% of the vote?
I know its predicated on the situation being different, but for the same reason I thought Boris would win if he got past the MPs, I can't see Hunt winning unless it's a coronation or moderate (or at least more standard) fix. Granted, the labour membership went for the sensible option right after Corbyn, but Corbyn lost and left, Boris going would be before a GE defeat and clearly forced on him, his supporters would be livid.
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
People definitely remember it, though I thought it typically saccharine.
I remember the NHS bit and the Bond/Queen bit. Mr Bean, the industrial revolution? No. But that's OK - something like that has to include something for everyone.
The Mr Bean bit was the absolute highlight. Well-performed, appropriate to the context, genuinely funny.
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
To be honest if the best criticism of Hunt we can make on here is reaching back 10 years to find some highly tenuous rumoured (and totally unsubstantiated) link with Murdoch and some minor suggested tweaks to the Olympics opening ceremony 8 years ago, which was in another age, then we can probably conclude Hunt is ok.
I am reminded of the scandal of Biden plagiarising that Kinnock speech. He seems to have recovered ok.
Never understood the issue with "plagiarising" Kinnock's speech. Politicians "borrow" sayings and slogans from other politicians every single day without it being commented on.
According to Wiki, it went a bit further than that:
“Moreover, while political speeches often appropriate ideas and language from each other, Biden's use came under more scrutiny because he fabricated aspects of his own family's background in order to match Kinnock's.”
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
I know its predicated on the situation being different, but for the same reason I thought Boris would win if he got past the MPs, I can't see Hunt winning unless it's a coronation or moderate (or at least more standard) fix. Granted, the labour membership went for the sensible option right after Corbyn, but Corbyn lost and left, Boris going would be before a GE defeat and clearly forced on him, his supporters would be livid.
I think hes going nowhere.
I agree, rumours of his weakness are grossly exaggerated. Replacing a PM who has been in post for barely a year and led his party to a big election win? I'd be shocked. Certainly a 10% chance more than a 50% chance.
p.s. is that the first time the adjective didelphine has been used on political betting?
Probably. I've never heard it used before nor do I know what it means
I thought you worked in advertising
We don't use big words in advertising!
didelphine is only barely a middle sized word
What is the word for an obscure word used in online articles so the author can easily search for them?
The Meaning of Liff by Douglas Adams comprises a compendium of useful words for such elusive meanings but I don't think anything there quite fits the bill.
We will have to invent one.
An Obscuramot.
I was quite pleased with my use of chthonic earlier, but it seems to have slipped by unnoticed. Must be a common word down this way..
Sucks to be a back bencher sometimes. At least no one was mid interview defending it when the u turn came.
Being a back bencher is one of the worst jobs in the world. The perceived status is all that it offers.
Nonsense. 4-5 days a week you get direct access to Ministers making decisions affecting 70 million people. 2-3 days a week you get to help people in your home area with personal difficulties. Yes, you're not Prime Minister, or even a junior Minister, get over it. It's one of the most interesting jobs in Britain, and I don't regret a second of it.
Sounds good, although from reports you have virtually no influence on legislation even if you try to scrutinise it, so it could be better.
Biden’s antipathy toward Boris, and US interests (a strong Europe) happen to overlap. This is not anti-UK; it’s anti-Boris and anti the “Brexit” project (ie populist, nativist, protectionist shite).
I'm not clear that Hunt would win a members vote but would be happy with him or Sunak - first party with an Asian MP would be a wonderful riposte to to Labour's record on sex and race equality. On Biden - definitely the right choice given the options for me but modest expectations are the best approach to what he can achieve. Then one might be pleasantly surprised. Saviour of western democracy etc, etc, seems a little ott at this point.
I’m afraid the first Asian MP was a Liberal, back in 1892... (I know it was a typo, and I’m being a hypocrite to popinjay it out, but I was surprised just how long ago it was).
Sometimes the world can go backwards. There were a couple of black senators in the 19th century. Not that it was all peace and harmony from the sounds of it.
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
That moment when you're so excited about Dishi Rishi you end up writing a 121-word sentence.
Donald Trump increased his share of the popular vote by 6M from 2016, so the views of "Biden switchers" may be less significant than the article assumes.
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
It's not that difficult. Why is Boris PM? 1 Because he is good at winning elections 2 Because no-one else was available to lead the Tory party who was trusted by supporters of Brexit 3 Because he faced opposition from a then unelectable Labour party leader at the GE 4 Because after the Brexit referendum there was no coalescence around a plan for sensibly delivering it other than Boris's not very good one 5 Because Labour have never had and still have not got a deliverable plan for our relationship with the EU.
1 simply restates my point - why do people like him? 2—4 agreed. 5 agreed but neither do the Tories.
I'm not sure what constitutes an answer on (1). Maybe people like him because he presents as blond, vulnerable and likeable, further he makes them laugh but not at him. He doesn't usually make your toes curl. He isn't passive aggressive. he is good at generalised uplift. He hates being bored and hated boring people. People like these things, useless though they generally are in dealing with ICT Acts and the science of virus control.
As to 5, there is some truth in this, but Labour never got beyond either confusion (in? out? Ref2?) or a fantasy wish list (negotiate better for things you can't have, done by people who have no belief in the project).
Whether the Tories have a deliverable plan is actually still unknown. As a supporter of EFTA or 'Norway for Now' I am bound to be sceptical. But at least they plan actually to deliver the Brexit verdict.
If Labour had gone for an EFTA solution in a united way under a social democrat leader they might be running the country now.
I know its predicated on the situation being different, but for the same reason I thought Boris would win if he got past the MPs, I can't see Hunt winning unless it's a coronation or moderate (or at least more standard) fix. Granted, the labour membership went for the sensible option right after Corbyn, but Corbyn lost and left, Boris going would be before a GE defeat and clearly forced on him, his supporters would be livid.
I think hes going nowhere.
I agree, rumours of his weakness are grossly exaggerated. Replacing a PM who has been in post for barely a year and led his party to a big election win? I'd be shocked. Certainly a 10% chance more than a 50% chance.
I’m not so sure: as others have pointed out he does not seem to have fully recovered from C-19 yet (and if nothing else, retiring on health grounds, or being persuaded to, would be face saving).
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
They were so unpopular that they won the subsequent elections with over 40% of the vote?
Yes, its nonsense. Every time there's a switch in PMs whoever's in opposition says an election is needed and media talks about mandate etc and its all crap.
It has happened a lot and sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. The individuals concerned can make it work and there's no inevitable inherent cost to it.
If people like the new leader they wont care how they got there.
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
People definitely remember it, though I thought it typically saccharine.
Well yes, it is pretty rare for opening ceremonies to go for gritty social realism!
I know its predicated on the situation being different, but for the same reason I thought Boris would win if he got past the MPs, I can't see Hunt winning unless it's a coronation or moderate (or at least more standard) fix. Granted, the labour membership went for the sensible option right after Corbyn, but Corbyn lost and left, Boris going would be before a GE defeat and clearly forced on him, his supporters would be livid.
Hunt will not be accepted by many given his history with the NHS. The Tories really also should learn the lesson of imposing an unelected PM on the U.K. They did it with May, they did it with Johnson. Both times it was unpopular. Thinking they can just dump Johnson and everything will be fine seems naive. Although it does have the cynicism which they seem to favour. In the end government’s are judged on the economy and with the damage of COVID and the damage of Brexit it seems unlikely there will be much economic good news for a couple of years. Personally, I suspect the Tories will stick with Johnson for another couple of years at least. They will want him to carry the can through until 2022 or even 2023 and then play their usual trick. Dump the leader pretend they have changed, lie about the opposition and hope their scare tactics work once more. Given their majority and the mountain the opposition has to climb they may even pull it off. I would rate their chances of winning the next election as over 50%.
There are some in the NHS who will never vote Hunt, but they are folk who would never vote Tory anyway. Certainly I won't be voting Tory again.
His new Junior Doctors contract is a fiasco, making for very complicated and inflexible rota writing, and failed in its claimed benefit to 7 day non emergency working. Hunt was astute enough to declare victory then abandon any attempt to revise Consultant contracts.
I don't object to him as much as some other former Health Secs. I would rate Patricia Hewitt and Alan Milburn as the worst of my life in the NHS. Hunt was the best at the FCO for a long time.
I think though Hunt won't have the support of either the Commons to make the final two, nor the Brexit obsessed party membership. Brexit is not going away as an issue, as it is not a stable state, but rather a state of permanent negotiations, often divisive over touchstone issues, such as food standards and economic protection.
I am mildly green on Hunt but don't expect it to win.
I suspect he might be a rare politician who learns from his mistakes - he certainly gives that impression with his sensible comments on the pandemic.
He’d be a rational choice as a Conservative PM (and that list of candidates is pretty thin), but I’m not convinced Tory MPs will see him as an election winner. And anyway, how rational is the Tory party these days ?
I expect we are going to hear a lot more “Britain’s Trump” used. Fair or not, it will resonate I think.
It's not fair, but I agree it will resonate a bit, even though the most prominent person to use the phrase was Trump, who doesn't know crap. I dislike it as its blatant laziness to over emphasise connections with one thing people dislike with another thing they dislike. Itd be like not only mentioning Corbyns links with Venezuela, but calling him Corbyn Chavez.
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
That moment when you're so excited about Dishi Rishi you end up writing a 121-word sentence.
Longer serving PB'ers will remember the days before HY hitched his wagon to the clown, when he used regularly to assure us that Tory members were about to pitch JRM into the top job....
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
That moment when you're so excited about Dishi Rishi you end up writing a 121-word sentence.
Bozo is useless, why does he not just follow Sturgeon immediately rather than being forced into it and looking an even bigger loser than was thought possible.
Good idea. We should have a referendum on England leaving the UK.
Sooner the better though they are unlikely to give up the golden goose as we constantly see by them refusing democratic vote for Scotland. There is a reason why they are so scared to allow a vote.
Millions who starved? Really? Sense of perspective required I think.
Its a reasonable decision and certainly politically he should have changed tack sooner, but it's one of those situations where the country seems to to think the reality is a lot worse than it is, like crime levels and so on.
I think there is talent in the Tory party - Johnson just seems to exclude them from the cabinet. Why Hunt, Tughenghat, Javid et al remain on the backbenches is bizarre.
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
On topic - thanks Casino for the very interesting leader. Hunt is my local MP and we see a lot of him. On the plus side he is hard-working and highly intelligent - his weekly email is worth subscribing to even if you're not local, with a subtle mix of news, politics, and self-deprecatory wit. He's also personally very pleasant, invariably good-humoured and harmlessly indiscreet. On the downside his political antennae are not acute - he advertised Eat Out to Help Out with a tweet showing his extremely expensive meal at a posh local restaurant, which went down badly even in this prosperous area - and he sometimes has an air of sleek remoteness which is OK here but might be a harder sell in the Red Wall.
Overall, clearly a strong contender if Johnson falls, but I think leaders generally last much longer than our hyperactive press pretend to expect. I don't expect a leadership challenge before 2023, when if things are going badly the Tories will try their "New leader - give him a chance!" card which has worked so well before.
I expect we are going to hear a lot more “Britain’s Trump” used. Fair or not, it will resonate I think.
It's not fair, but I agree it will resonate a bit, even though the most prominent person to use the phrase was Trump, who doesn't know crap. I dislike it as its blatant laziness to over emphasise connections with one thing people dislike with another thing they dislike. Itd be like not only mentioning Corbyns links with Venezuela, but calling him Corbyn Chavez.
Blatant laziness is a good shout and I agree. But Boris Johnson is such a slow moving target these days, you really don't have to work that hard to land blows.
Giuliani is 76 so younger than Biden, could be a longshot for 2024, has huge name recognition after 9/11, is charismatic, certainly more so than say Pence, has clearly stayed loyal enough to Trump for the Republican base to consider him and yet is also slicker and more intelligent than Trump is and certainly more so than Trump Jnr.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
The one obscure fact I always remember about Hunt, which isn’t to his credit, is that when he first saw the plans for Danny Boyle’s 2012 opening ceremony, he wanted the NHS segment scaled back or scrapped, and was so persistent about it that Boyle was forced to threaten to walk away from the whole project and take his thousands of volunteers with him, before Hunt would shut up.
Aside from the fact that this reveals an unpleasant aspect of his ideological drive that is usually hidden, it also makes him an appalling judge of national sentiment.
He may have just been making a point that he did not want potentially divisive politics in the opening ceremony rather than be anti NHS which is a valid point of view. Was the NHS the memorable bit of the opening ceremony anyway - to me it was one of the boring bits nobody remembers - Bond/Queen , MR Bean and the industrial revolution were the bits people remember.
People definitely remember it, though I thought it typically saccharine.
Well yes, it is pretty rare for opening ceremonies to go for gritty social realism!
I didn't say I didn't like it (my concerns with being over emotional about the NHS can survive a twee ceremony).
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
I think there is talent in the Tory party - Johnson just seems to exclude them from the cabinet. Why Hunt, Tughenghat, Javid et al remain on the backbenches is bizarre.
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
Why? He’s only proven he can give money away, several big errors EOTHO to name but one, yet to prove he can manage the ongoing economy, just out of short trousers I’m afraid.
I expect we are going to hear a lot more “Britain’s Trump” used. Fair or not, it will resonate I think.
Yes.
And indelibly linked with the word, Loser !!
Boris hasn't lost yet you realise? It might take more than an association with Trump to link that with him, particularly among supporters. The coming economic hit will be a part of that.
Sucks to be a back bencher sometimes. At least no one was mid interview defending it when the u turn came.
Being a back bencher is one of the worst jobs in the world. The perceived status is all that it offers.
You omit the gravy train , most time spent in subsidised pubs/restaurants ,free everything on expenses , no need to touch your salary , gold plated pension , vote yourself big pay rise every year and more holidays than anyone in the country. Methinks you jest Ian.
Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 ....
Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
*cough*
Nasty cough - You need to get a Covid test .... there is a testing station next to the lower ground floor of Auchentennach Castle ... near the dungeons ...
I literally have no idea what you are talking about, my fellow 306er.
Questioning the great one's omnipresence means you are in the next batch of pies should you be silly enough to visit.
Sucks to be a back bencher sometimes. At least no one was mid interview defending it when the u turn came.
Being a back bencher is one of the worst jobs in the world. The perceived status is all that it offers.
You omit the gravy train , most time spent in subsidised pubs/restaurants ,free everything on expenses , no need to touch your salary , gold plated pension , vote yourself big pay rise every year and more holidays than anyone in the country. Methinks you jest Ian.
Perhaps the reality is that we are getting towards the point where the public fancy a change and a new Tory leader isn’t going to change that. By 2024 the Tories will have been in Government 13 years (same as Labour last time) and fatigue must surely be setting in.
What is undoubtedly clear to me is that Johnson in 2019 managed to run on a platform somehow of not being the previous 9 years of Tory Government. My view is that perception is now shattered and no other incoming leader will be able to do that again, least not Sunak or Hunt who’ve both spent time in the previous Governments.
I know my prediction record has not been full of successes of late but I do think 2024 is genuinely an election Labour should end up forming a minority Government in.
I think there is talent in the Tory party - Johnson just seems to exclude them from the cabinet. Why Hunt, Tughenghat, Javid et al remain on the backbenches is bizarre.
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
Javid crossed swords with Cummings it's no surprise hes out.
Giuliani is 76 so younger than Biden, could be a longshot for 2024, has huge name recognition after 9/11, is charismatic, certainly more so than say Pence, has clearly stayed loyal enough to Trump for the Republican base to consider him and yet is also slicker and more intelligent than Trump is and certainly more so than Trump Jnr.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
On topic - thanks Casino for the very interesting leader. Hunt is my local MP and we see a lot of him. On the plus side he is hard-working and highly intelligent - his weekly email is worth subscribing to even if you're not local, with a subtle mix of news, politics, and self-deprecatory wit. He's also personally very pleasant, invariably good-humoured and harmlessly indiscreet. On the downside his political antennae are not acute - he advertised Eat Out to Help Out with a tweet showing his extremely expensive meal at a posh local restaurant, which went down badly even in this prosperous area - and he sometimes has an air of sleek remoteness which is OK here but might be a harder sell in the Red Wall.
Overall, clearly a strong contender if Johnson falls, but I think leaders generally last much longer than our hyperactive press pretend to expect. I don't expect a leadership challenge before 2023, when if things are going badly the Tories will try their "New leader - give him a chance!" card which has worked so well before.
I think the newness of leadership is measured in terms of events rather can calendar time. And I think objectively there has been a lot going on since Johnson became leader. It feels to me like there has been a few years' worth of news this year, a similar feeling to 2016. Which isn't to say you're wrong, but "new leader!" doesn't feel applicable to Johnson any more, not to me.
On topic I am not convinced. I am not a member of the Conservative party. Had I been I would probably have voted for Hunt but clearly that was not the view of the majority of the members. I also do not think that Hunt would have got a majority of 80 as Boris did.
In the next week we will get a deal with the EU. It won't be perfect but it will do. We can then get on to more important things like trying to work out how we get our economy working in a time of Covid. It seems likely that by Christmas we will have a vaccine of sorts. Again it won't be perfect but it will help to reduce the R level markedly. We will have more rapid testing which will also help reduce the spread of the disease. We will, hopefully be able to start work on the backlog of untreated illness piling up in the NHS.
In short, I expect by Christmas things will be looking better for Boris, not worse. That doesn't mean that they will be good. Public finances are going to be in a horrendous state. Unemployment will be higher although not as much higher as some are forecasting. No doubt the wailing and rending of garments about the EU will not have stopped. But they will be better and Hunt's moment will be gone. Don't get me wrong. I would like to see him back in the government. Possibly as a supremo for testing/vaccination. But he will not be leader. There isn't a vacancy.
Giuliani is 76 so younger than Biden, could be a longshot for 2024, has huge name recognition after 9/11, is charismatic, certainly more so than say Pence, has clearly stayed loyal enough to Trump for the Republican base to consider him and yet is also slicker and more intelligent than Trump is and certainly more so than Trump Jnr.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
On the other hand he's completely lost touch with reality.
The British and all the other US allies really need to step up and invite Trump over for another State Visit, put on a big, glitzy, content-free thing to keep him happy and distracted for a few days.
I've no "skin in the game" as it's up to the Conservatives whom they wish to have as their leader. I wouldn't get too upset about polls - Margaret Thatcher was polling far worse in the early and mid 80s and it didn't stop her winning landslides in both 1983 and 1987.
Ultimately, what did for her (and for May as well) was the realisation not only that she couldn't win another election but there was an alterative who could.
The infamous mid-June poll which sealed the deal for Boris, the Conservative Party and the country included Hunt and while he made it to the final two, he was never going to win. Had Boris been forced out of the contest and Hunt had prevailed, I suspect Farage and TBP would be tearing lumps out of his Government now.
Boris promised victory, majority and stability - no one could have foreseen what was lurking as we were all voting last December and for an individual who had enjoyed his fair share of good fortune in his political life. this was all the bad luck come at once.
Rishi Sunak, conversely, has had plenty of good fortune thus far - I wouldn't call a pandemic "good fortune" per se but his role in the response has elevated his profile and popularity. Chancellors often struggle to be liked but circumstances have played well for Sunak in that regard but as everyone knows largesse can't last forever and for all he is, I think, at heart, a Thatcherite, he will see the growing debt ad deficit as a serious problem to be tackled.
Tackling that, especially if it is seen through the prism of reducing expenditure rather than increasing income, isn't going to win him any friends and it remains to be seen how he copes with being unpopular which may be a bit of a shock to him.
I think there is talent in the Tory party - Johnson just seems to exclude them from the cabinet. Why Hunt, Tughenghat, Javid et al remain on the backbenches is bizarre.
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
Why replace one donkey with another. Sunak has done nothing other than splatter others cash all over the place. I doubt he could run a bath. Your talent list gave me bellyache from guffawing as well.
And reassured her by promising to employ eight full time PR people to help her prepare for interviews?
Despite two thirds of a million being lavished on that, she still told the press she didn't want to vaccinate everyone because the vaccine wouldn't be safe. Good God.
Hunt has as much chance of becoming the next Tory leader as Romney does of being the GOP nominee in 2024 ie zero.
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
I agree. Sunak's window is closing quickly, the economy is cratering (not his fault, but he is holding the parcel of ordure when the music stops).
Raab, Patel and Gove are making all the right noises for the faithful.
So what of Hunt? Something of a political chameleon who has finally become very effective through the pandemic. People like me wouldn't vote for him, but would be comfortable with him as PM. That is probably a good reason why he won't succeed in the Conservative leadership battle against the likes of Sunak, Raab, Patel or Gove.
On topic, Hunt is well back in the running with Tory MPs, behind both Sunak and Gove.
So I'm told by them.
I suspect that any possible rival is better off being behind Gove until it's absolutely necessary to be in front. Very risky, giving Gove the opportunity to back-stab.
Another thought, given their back-stories I don't see either Biden or Harris being particularly well disposed towards the UK, and in particular England. I suspect Boris and Raab may have some work to do there.
And I picked up on chthonic, wondered what it meant and looked it up. However, we had a phone call from Younger Son this morning, with a great deal of input from Youngest (aged 6) Granddaughter, so I was much more concerned with future generations that with possible gods in the underworld.
I think there is talent in the Tory party - Johnson just seems to exclude them from the cabinet. Why Hunt, Tughenghat, Javid et al remain on the backbenches is bizarre.
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
Why replace one donkey with another. Sunak has done nothing other than splatter others cash all over the place. I doubt he could run a bath. Your talent list gave me bellyache from guffawing as well.
..and had he not splattered cash all over the place, you'd be harping on about him being a typical Tory. Give it a rest.
Donald Trump increased his share of the popular vote by 6M from 2016, so the views of "Biden switchers" may be less significant than the article assumes.
And yet he lost. If he had appealed more to those in the cities, maybe he would have won?
Giuliani is 76 so younger than Biden, could be a longshot for 2024, has huge name recognition after 9/11, is charismatic, certainly more so than say Pence, has clearly stayed loyal enough to Trump for the Republican base to consider him and yet is also slicker and more intelligent than Trump is and certainly more so than Trump Jnr.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
On the other hand he's completely lost touch with reality.
Surely, in the current GOP, that is a prerequisite, not a drawback?
I've no "skin in the game" as it's up to the Conservatives whom they wish to have as their leader. I wouldn't get too upset about polls - Margaret Thatcher was polling far worse in the early and mid 80s and it didn't stop her winning landslides in both 1983 and 1987.
Ultimately, what did for her (and for May as well) was the realisation not only that she couldn't win another election but there was an alterative who could.
The infamous mid-June poll which sealed the deal for Boris, the Conservative Party and the country included Hunt and while he made it to the final two, he was never going to win. Had Boris been forced out of the contest and Hunt had prevailed, I suspect Farage and TBP would be tearing lumps out of his Government now.
Boris promised victory, majority and stability - no one could have foreseen what was lurking as we were all voting last December and for an individual who had enjoyed his fair share of good fortune in his political life. this was all the bad luck come at once.
Rishi Sunak, conversely, has had plenty of good fortune thus far - I wouldn't call a pandemic "good fortune" per se but his role in the response has elevated his profile and popularity. Chancellors often struggle to be liked but circumstances have played well for Sunak in that regard but as everyone knows largesse can't last forever and for all he is, I think, at heart, a Thatcherite, he will see the growing debt ad deficit as a serious problem to be tackled.
Tackling that, especially if it is seen through the prism of reducing expenditure rather than increasing income, isn't going to win him any friends and it remains to be seen how he copes with being unpopular which may be a bit of a shock to him.
Adversity builds Character, I've been told.
I don't recall Major's takeover like that, at all. His emergence in the contest was something of a surprise, no-one saw him as an election winner or expected him to win, and that he did win was a surprise saved for the Friday after polling day. Thatcher authored her own demise. And was probably already into losing it mentally by the end of her long spell in No. 10.
Theres a difference to having to u turn on policies to being indelibly linked as a loser, particularly among those who support him.
I think you're problem is you cannot help going over the top , like yesterday when you insisted Boris congratulating Biden had barely been done when in fact it was entirely in keeping with other world leaders. There are concerns Boris will find it hard to work well with Biden, but you made up a reason to criticise rather than use what was actually there.
And Boris has as Casino Royale sets out taken a hit even among those who were backing him. He is more vulnerable than he was and you're right being defeated by a pro footballer is relevant in how he might be viewed.
But not all losses are the same. Hes a year out from a huge election win, and though confidence in him has been shaken I think that electoral success means his party will need a bit more before the image of him in their eyes, not ours, as a loser is fixed. It's why things like the May elections will be important and general confidence from the economy. And he needs to be a loser in their eyes before he will go.
Just listened to Joe Biden deliver a gracious inspiring speech and in it he offered an olive branch to the republicans
It was a message to everyone to come together for the greater good and was so refreshing
It is also a lesson to all those on the right and left that divisive and polarising politics does not win the argument for their side but divides and extends and is not a pathway to a better world
I am so delighted and relaxed this morning and hope for a new dawn
I think there is talent in the Tory party - Johnson just seems to exclude them from the cabinet. Why Hunt, Tughenghat, Javid et al remain on the backbenches is bizarre.
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
Why replace one donkey with another. Sunak has done nothing other than splatter others cash all over the place. I doubt he could run a bath. Your talent list gave me bellyache from guffawing as well.
..and had he not splattered cash all over the place, you'd be harping on about him being a typical Tory. Give it a rest.
On your bike , I will say what I want , no two bit bum will tell me what I can and cannot say. You may not like reality and have the hots for Rishi, tough luck.
It was pretty obvious he didn't want to talk about the IMB (and carefully avoided tying himself to any horses in that regard) and deflected any question back to border check points.
Giuliani is 76 so younger than Biden, could be a longshot for 2024, has huge name recognition after 9/11, is charismatic, certainly more so than say Pence, has clearly stayed loyal enough to Trump for the Republican base to consider him and yet is also slicker and more intelligent than Trump is and certainly more so than Trump Jnr.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
The Dems would absolutely love to be up against Giuliani in 2024.
On topic I am not convinced. I am not a member of the Conservative party. Had I been I would probably have voted for Hunt but clearly that was not the view of the majority of the members. I also do not think that Hunt would have got a majority of 80 as Boris did.
In the next week we will get a deal with the EU. It won't be perfect but it will do. We can then get on to more important things like trying to work out how we get our economy working in a time of Covid. It seems likely that by Christmas we will have a vaccine of sorts. Again it won't be perfect but it will help to reduce the R level markedly. We will have more rapid testing which will also help reduce the spread of the disease. We will, hopefully be able to start work on the backlog of untreated illness piling up in the NHS.
In short, I expect by Christmas things will be looking better for Boris, not worse. That doesn't mean that they will be good. Public finances are going to be in a horrendous state. Unemployment will be higher although not as much higher as some are forecasting. No doubt the wailing and rending of garments about the EU will not have stopped. But they will be better and Hunt's moment will be gone. Don't get me wrong. I would like to see him back in the government. Possibly as a supremo for testing/vaccination. But he will not be leader. There isn't a vacancy.
Good Morning From The Tipster Of The Year Elect Of Political Betting 2020 ....
Other Venerable PB Prognosticators Are Also Available On Request
*cough*
Nasty cough - You need to get a Covid test .... there is a testing station next to the lower ground floor of Auchentennach Castle ... near the dungeons ...
I literally have no idea what you are talking about, my fellow 306er.
Questioning the great one's omnipresence means you are in the next batch of pies should you be silly enough to visit.
Thanks. I love the elaborate legends we construct here.
Great article. I saw Hunt at a leadership hustings event and I thought the Tories were utterly mad to choose Johnson over him. He is a very talented politician.
You are right in that he's a more cerebral politician than Johnson, but to be fair to him, Johnson is (?was) an excellent campaigner. Would have a made a good Prescott to Hunt's Blair. (Is that offensive to any/all of them?)
I suspect though that the next Tory leader isn't anyone presently obvious, unless Johnson gives up in the next 12 months, and, if Brexit is, or approaches being, a disaster we're more likely to see someone more in the centre. Might, just might, even see May back. Seriously.
I probably have a blind spot with respect to Johnson, in that I am genuinely at a loss to understand his appeal. I suspect it is my Scottish upbringing - we expect our leaders to be serious people and we don't instinctively bend our knee to posh people. Clearly other people think differently, including in surprising places like County Durham. I think that in the long run my views on Johnson - that he is a psychologically damaged narcissistic liar who has no understanding of the challenges this country faces and no idea of how to overcome them - will be proven correct. But in the meantime I will continue to be bemused that he is PM.
Totally agree, which is why I defer to others on Tory likelihood to be re-elected in 2024, as far more accurate and intelligent than me
Giuliani is 76 so younger than Biden, could be a longshot for 2024, has huge name recognition after 9/11, is charismatic, certainly more so than say Pence, has clearly stayed loyal enough to Trump for the Republican base to consider him and yet is also slicker and more intelligent than Trump is and certainly more so than Trump Jnr.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
Don’t be daft. He’s more of a laughingstock than Trump.
I expect we are going to hear a lot more “Britain’s Trump” used. Fair or not, it will resonate I think.
Yes.
And indelibly linked with the word, Loser !!
"Loser" is reserved for those like Hillary Clinton and Jeremy Corbyn, that never won the trust of the voters with power in the first place....
Hillary won the popular vote! Unlike Corbyn....
Trump lost the popular vote TWO elections in a row! What a LOSER! SAD!
Has Donald Trump ever stood for election in anything other than the 2016 and 2020 presidential races? Perhaps a failed presidential primary when he was younger? It's a hell of a record, if he's never once won a plurality of votes in anything, ever.
I think there is talent in the Tory party - Johnson just seems to exclude them from the cabinet. Why Hunt, Tughenghat, Javid et al remain on the backbenches is bizarre.
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
Why replace one donkey with another. Sunak has done nothing other than splatter others cash all over the place. I doubt he could run a bath. Your talent list gave me bellyache from guffawing as well.
..and had he not splattered cash all over the place, you'd be harping on about him being a typical Tory. Give it a rest.
On your bike , I will say what I want , no two bit bum will tell me what I can and cannot say. You may not like reality and have the hots for Rishi, tough luck.
Here's your reality - splashes the cash. Malcolm G rants. Tory doesn't splash the cash - "its all ye Tory scum". Your positioning is utterly contradictory and as usual designed to provoke a heated response.
The British and all the other US allies really need to step up and invite Trump over for another State Visit, put on a big, glitzy, content-free thing to keep him happy and distracted for a few days.
I think that's a great idea - except for Covid. The chances of someone from the White House team bringing the infection to the top level of your own government is too high.
Good header and I agree that 20s is value. Much depends on whether we continue down the "values" route in our politics. The economic argument is shifting Left. So can the Right only get elected if they cloak themselves in populist nationalism? Johnson has done so and it has thus far paid off. If this is still the strategy the next Tory leader won't be Hunt unless he reinvents himself as a total dic ... as a populist nationalist.
I commented last evening on the enormity of Biden's task trying to re-unite a deeply divided country. It's not 1865 by any stretch and I wouldn't want any kind of parallel with that dreadful time but the fact remains America's divisions, which have always existed (as they do in every other country), have been laid bare in the past few years.
There's no point being triumphalist or throwing blame around or throwing in pejorative terms like "woke" and all the rest of it - none of that helps.
Those who supported Trump, for whatever reason, have as much right to be heard and have a voice and stake in the future as those who supported Remain in 2016.
Biden therefore has to be about reconciliation and nothing else - fortunately it seems unlikely the Democrats will enjoy the "clean sweep" for which they were hoping and it's my experience a little sensible "co-habitation" as the French call it does no one any harm.
There are enough moderate Republicans and Democrats in both Senate and the House to work with a moderate Biden administration and marginalise the extremists n both sides of the aisle.
That doesn't mean there aren't significant challenges for an incoming Biden administration both domestically and globally. Relations with China, Israel and Russia (in that order) will be needing particular care and it will be interesting to see who replaces Pompeo at State.
This Government is not in fact political geniuses and it's evident that Cummings is not the master tactician he thinks he is. On Brexit he seems aligned with the majority but elsewhere he is evidently lacking.
As HYUFD has said, there is absolutely no chance of the Conservative membership (or MPs for that matter) going for Hunt before the next election, even if Boris does go. Boris won't be forced out, but he may choose to go. If he does, and if the shine comes off Sunak, the Tories will be in trouble, as I can't see a credible alternative candidate that would get the support of the membership. Gove/Patel/Raab would not, in my opinion, be winners with the general public. Hunt will have to wait until post 2024.
On topic, Hunt is well back in the running with Tory MPs, behind both Sunak and Gove.
So I'm told by them.
I suspect that any possible rival is better off being behind Gove until it's absolutely necessary to be in front. Very risky, giving Gove the opportunity to back-stab.
Another thought, given their back-stories I don't see either Biden or Harris being particularly well disposed towards the UK, and in particular England. I suspect Boris and Raab may have some work to do there.
And I picked up on chthonic, wondered what it meant and looked it up. However, we had a phone call from Younger Son this morning, with a great deal of input from Youngest (aged 6) Granddaughter, so I was much more concerned with future generations that with possible gods in the underworld.
With the popularity of Lovecraft, chthonic is not as obscure as might otherwise have been the case. But if you want truly uncanny, look no further than @Dura_Ace ’s possum picture.
Interesting episode of More or Less on Covid death rates. Conclusion is that if you catch Covid now you have a 20 - 30% less chance of dying from it than you would have done if you had caught it in the spring. This is due to new treatments.
Whatever happened about Hunt being “the Murdochs’ back channel”? I know it was about ten years ago, but isn’t helping NewsCorp a chthonic enough connection to have disqualified him from the support of anyone vaguely left leaning? Or is opposing Brexit and not being Boris enough these days?
When it comes to the Tory party I think Murdoch enjoys many back channels.
To be honest if the best criticism of Hunt we can make on here is reaching back 10 years to find some highly tenuous rumoured (and totally unsubstantiated) link with Murdoch and some minor suggested tweaks to the Olympics opening ceremony 8 years ago, which was in another age, then we can probably conclude Hunt is ok.
Hunt's perceived strength is sober managerial competence but he's never going to beat SKS on that score. The tories need a contrast to SKS not a knock off they've bought off Aliexpress. They need somebody who can bang the drum for Blut und Boden nationalism. Somebody who gets up in the morning and pisses poppies while humming the theme to Till Death Us Do Part. Step forward Andrew Rosindell MP.
On topic I am not convinced. I am not a member of the Conservative party. Had I been I would probably have voted for Hunt but clearly that was not the view of the majority of the members. I also do not think that Hunt would have got a majority of 80 as Boris did.
In the next week we will get a deal with the EU. It won't be perfect but it will do. We can then get on to more important things like trying to work out how we get our economy working in a time of Covid. It seems likely that by Christmas we will have a vaccine of sorts. Again it won't be perfect but it will help to reduce the R level markedly. We will have more rapid testing which will also help reduce the spread of the disease. We will, hopefully be able to start work on the backlog of untreated illness piling up in the NHS.
In short, I expect by Christmas things will be looking better for Boris, not worse. That doesn't mean that they will be good. Public finances are going to be in a horrendous state. Unemployment will be higher although not as much higher as some are forecasting. No doubt the wailing and rending of garments about the EU will not have stopped. But they will be better and Hunt's moment will be gone. Don't get me wrong. I would like to see him back in the government. Possibly as a supremo for testing/vaccination. But he will not be leader. There isn't a vacancy.
Good Christmas wish David if a bit optimistic.
It's being so cheerful that keeps me going Malc. What do you think of Robertson getting Edinburgh Central? Probable replacement for Nicola? The SNP could do worse.
Giuliani is 76 so younger than Biden, could be a longshot for 2024, has huge name recognition after 9/11, is charismatic, certainly more so than say Pence, has clearly stayed loyal enough to Trump for the Republican base to consider him and yet is also slicker and more intelligent than Trump is and certainly more so than Trump Jnr.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
The Dems would absolutely love to be up against Giuliani in 2024.
They would be stupid to do so, Giuliani still has a lot of appeal to bluecollar voters in particular after leading NYC on 9/11, the type who voted Trump in 2016 but Biden in 2020 but are a bit wary of the culture warriors in the Dems like AOC ie the key rustbelt swing voters, Giuliani is a social moderate but economic conservative too which would also appeal in the suburbs Biden won this year.
If Biden ran again in 2024 I think he would likely be re elected, if he did not and Harris or AOC got the Democratic nomination I would fancy Giuliani to beat either of them
Comments
Nope. It is real. Trump is fired.
I think hes going nowhere.
“Moreover, while political speeches often appropriate ideas and language from each other, Biden's use came under more scrutiny because he fabricated aspects of his own family's background in order to match Kinnock's.”
Hunt got just 24% of the votes of Tory MPs last year and 33% of the votes from Tory members, he was a Remainer so still untouchable from the party base unlike the Leave voting Sunak and his approval ratings from the public are not only lower than Sunak's but even lower than Boris'. If Boris goes, for example after terrible local election results next year, then it will only be for the now more electable Sunak who can take a pragmatic stance on Brexit while still showing loyalty to the cause and be a fresh face to work with the Biden administration.
Personally I think Boris will still survive for the time being and the locals next year will not be that bad but if he does go then Sunak will be the alternative not Hunt, indeed I highly doubt Hunt would even get to the final 2 now amongst MPs let alone win, much of his 2019 support will have shifted to Sunak who is now the main candidate for Tory moderates and much of the Boris support would shift to Sunak too, the hard right of the party meanwhile would get behind Patel or Raab or an anti lockdown figure like McVey and Hunt would be squeezed out and not even get to the final round to contest the membership vote
A guess another couple of letters are heading to Brady's office.
Biden’s antipathy toward Boris, and US interests (a strong Europe) happen to overlap.
This is not anti-UK; it’s anti-Boris and anti the “Brexit” project (ie populist, nativist, protectionist shite).
As to 5, there is some truth in this, but Labour never got beyond either confusion
(in? out? Ref2?) or a fantasy wish list (negotiate better for things you can't have, done by people who have no belief in the project).
Whether the Tories have a deliverable plan is actually still unknown. As a supporter of EFTA or 'Norway for Now' I am bound to be sceptical. But at least they plan actually to deliver the Brexit verdict.
If Labour had gone for an EFTA solution in a united way under a social democrat leader they might be running the country now.
And indelibly linked with the word, Loser !!
It has happened a lot and sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. The individuals concerned can make it work and there's no inevitable inherent cost to it.
If people like the new leader they wont care how they got there.
He’d be a rational choice as a Conservative PM (and that list of candidates is pretty thin), but I’m not convinced Tory MPs will see him as an election winner.
And anyway, how rational is the Tory party these days ?
https://twitter.com/harryalford3/status/1325220150497464320?s=21
I think Johnson's time is now running out. And I think his replacement will be Sunak.
Overall, clearly a strong contender if Johnson falls, but I think leaders generally last much longer than our hyperactive press pretend to expect. I don't expect a leadership challenge before 2023, when if things are going badly the Tories will try their "New leader - give him a chance!" card which has worked so well before.
If Biden did not run again in 2024 and Harris won the Democratic nomination Giuliani could have a shot of winning and beating her
So I'm told by them.
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1324878489988837377
At least, I imagine various people are claiming that on the internet
Perhaps the reality is that we are getting towards the point where the public fancy a change and a new Tory leader isn’t going to change that. By 2024 the Tories will have been in Government 13 years (same as Labour last time) and fatigue must surely be setting in.
What is undoubtedly clear to me is that Johnson in 2019 managed to run on a platform somehow of not being the previous 9 years of Tory Government. My view is that perception is now shattered and no other incoming leader will be able to do that again, least not Sunak or Hunt who’ve both spent time in the previous Governments.
I know my prediction record has not been full of successes of late but I do think 2024 is genuinely an election Labour should end up forming a minority Government in.
In the next week we will get a deal with the EU. It won't be perfect but it will do. We can then get on to more important things like trying to work out how we get our economy working in a time of Covid. It seems likely that by Christmas we will have a vaccine of sorts. Again it won't be perfect but it will help to reduce the R level markedly. We will have more rapid testing which will also help reduce the spread of the disease. We will, hopefully be able to start work on the backlog of untreated illness piling up in the NHS.
In short, I expect by Christmas things will be looking better for Boris, not worse. That doesn't mean that they will be good. Public finances are going to be in a horrendous state. Unemployment will be higher although not as much higher as some are forecasting. No doubt the wailing and rending of garments about the EU will not have stopped. But they will be better and Hunt's moment will be gone. Don't get me wrong. I would like to see him back in the government. Possibly as a supremo for testing/vaccination. But he will not be leader. There isn't a vacancy.
Thanks, @Casino_Royale, for the thoughtful header.
I've no "skin in the game" as it's up to the Conservatives whom they wish to have as their leader. I wouldn't get too upset about polls - Margaret Thatcher was polling far worse in the early and mid 80s and it didn't stop her winning landslides in both 1983 and 1987.
Ultimately, what did for her (and for May as well) was the realisation not only that she couldn't win another election but there was an alterative who could.
The infamous mid-June poll which sealed the deal for Boris, the Conservative Party and the country included Hunt and while he made it to the final two, he was never going to win. Had Boris been forced out of the contest and Hunt had prevailed, I suspect Farage and TBP would be tearing lumps out of his Government now.
Boris promised victory, majority and stability - no one could have foreseen what was lurking as we were all voting last December and for an individual who had enjoyed his fair share of good fortune in his political life. this was all the bad luck come at once.
Rishi Sunak, conversely, has had plenty of good fortune thus far - I wouldn't call a pandemic "good fortune" per se but his role in the response has elevated his profile and popularity. Chancellors often struggle to be liked but circumstances have played well for Sunak in that regard but as everyone knows largesse can't last forever and for all he is, I think, at heart, a Thatcherite, he will see the growing debt ad deficit as a serious problem to be tackled.
Tackling that, especially if it is seen through the prism of reducing expenditure rather than increasing income, isn't going to win him any friends and it remains to be seen how he copes with being unpopular which may be a bit of a shock to him.
Adversity builds Character, I've been told.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0HioLuntLE
Despite two thirds of a million being lavished on that, she still told the press she didn't want to vaccinate everyone because the vaccine wouldn't be safe. Good God.
Raab, Patel and Gove are making all the right noises for the faithful.
So what of Hunt? Something of a political chameleon who has finally become very effective through the pandemic. People like me wouldn't vote for him, but would be comfortable with him as PM. That is probably a good reason why he won't succeed in the Conservative leadership battle against the likes of Sunak, Raab, Patel or Gove.
Another thought, given their back-stories I don't see either Biden or Harris being particularly well disposed towards the UK, and in particular England. I suspect Boris and Raab may have some work to do there.
And I picked up on chthonic, wondered what it meant and looked it up. However, we had a phone call from Younger Son this morning, with a great deal of input from Youngest (aged 6) Granddaughter, so I was much more concerned with future generations that with possible gods in the underworld.
I think you're problem is you cannot help going over the top , like yesterday when you insisted Boris congratulating Biden had barely been done when in fact it was entirely in keeping with other world leaders. There are concerns Boris will find it hard to work well with Biden, but you made up a reason to criticise rather than use what was actually there.
And Boris has as Casino Royale sets out taken a hit even among those who were backing him. He is more vulnerable than he was and you're right being defeated by a pro footballer is relevant in how he might be viewed.
But not all losses are the same. Hes a year out from a huge election win, and though confidence in him has been shaken I think that electoral success means his party will need a bit more before the image of him in their eyes, not ours, as a loser is fixed. It's why things like the May elections will be important and general confidence from the economy. And he needs to be a loser in their eyes before he will go.
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1325379770046160898
Trump lost the popular vote TWO elections in a row! What a LOSER!
SAD!
It was a message to everyone to come together for the greater good and was so refreshing
It is also a lesson to all those on the right and left that divisive and polarising politics does not win the argument for their side but divides and extends and is not a pathway to a better world
I am so delighted and relaxed this morning and hope for a new dawn
He’s more of a laughingstock than Trump.
It's a hell of a record, if he's never once won a plurality of votes in anything, ever.
On yer bike, as you so eloquently stated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY
There's no point being triumphalist or throwing blame around or throwing in pejorative terms like "woke" and all the rest of it - none of that helps.
Those who supported Trump, for whatever reason, have as much right to be heard and have a voice and stake in the future as those who supported Remain in 2016.
Biden therefore has to be about reconciliation and nothing else - fortunately it seems unlikely the Democrats will enjoy the "clean sweep" for which they were hoping and it's my experience a little sensible "co-habitation" as the French call it does no one any harm.
There are enough moderate Republicans and Democrats in both Senate and the House to work with a moderate Biden administration and marginalise the extremists n both sides of the aisle.
That doesn't mean there aren't significant challenges for an incoming Biden administration both domestically and globally. Relations with China, Israel and Russia (in that order) will be needing particular care and it will be interesting to see who replaces Pompeo at State.
This Government is not in fact political geniuses and it's evident that Cummings is not the master tactician he thinks he is. On Brexit he seems aligned with the majority but elsewhere he is evidently lacking.
But if you want truly uncanny, look no further than @Dura_Ace ’s possum picture.
If Biden ran again in 2024 I think he would likely be re elected, if he did not and Harris or AOC got the Democratic nomination I would fancy Giuliani to beat either of them