For someone who has little knowledge of US politics and expected a Biden landslide for weeks, can I assume Biden will win this by this evening but that his margin of victory is much tighter than anyone expected and the Republicans will retain control of the Senate
And can I assume that in this scenario Trump is over, but Biden is constricted by the Senate thereby allowing the Republicans to find someone sane and to take on Biden as he deals with all the many problems in the US today and evidenced by so much obvious and terrible division
Failed to deliver to voters, or failed to return completed ballots for counting?
I am very much in agreement that electoral f*ckery is bidirectional.
The US needs to go back to the UK system: 1. a lady in the village hall has a list 2. she crosses you off the list and gives you a ballot paper 3. you put an X and put it in the box 4. someone else counts them 5. the returning officer stands up and tells you whether your candidate beat the guy with the bucket on his head 6. you go to PB and speculate on how it would have turned out under AV.
2 (a) You first have to find the stubby pencil, hand sharpened with a small penknife and attached to the booth with an old piece of string. It is an essential part of the British constitution without which elections are invalid.
Reducing my exposure to Trump at these prices - 5.4 at moment.
Getting a bad feeling my friends.
Basically Trump is calling fraud in every state left thats close and he might lose. So even if they turn blue he's preparing the ground. For the first time in days NV is worrying me. The fact the Trump campaign are quoting figures as specific as 'winning by 5500' doesnt sound like just 'making noise' to me. They must have seen something specific of exactly what's left to be counted.
Yes, feels like something is happening there and they have an idea of the vote.
I'm kicking myself I listened to Ralston. My thesis was that, given the dependence of the state on tourism and events, enough voters - especially Hispanic workers - would flip.
To be fair it wasnt just Ralston saying this, several networks when discussing whats' left said the same about all is just a few Clark postal votes, but frustratingly no one drilled down into the counties to see exactly what is really left and where.
I think in all the excitement for the rust belts swinging back to Biden, NV got forgotten as 'its only 6 votes' but it does change the path for both if it does flip. Hopefully later Ralston will post whats still to be counted for the whole county and that will tell us much more. But clearly Trumps campaign think they have around +15000 votes to what the dems have still to come in. Who knows,,,,
For someone who has little knowledge of US politics and expected a Biden landslide for weeks, can I assume Biden will win this by this evening but that his margin of victory is much tighter than anyone expected and the Republicans will retain control of the Senate
And can I assume that in this scenario Trump is over, but Biden is constricted by the Senate thereby allowing the Republicans to find someone sane and to take on Biden as he deals with all the many problems in the US today and evidenced by so much obvious and terrible division
I think it’s very likely Biden has just done it. But I would like PA or GA to come in for him as well if I’m honest. NV is making me slightly nervous...
Oh God, this isn't the sort of thing to lead to a rerun vote there is it? It gets dragged out enough as it is.
Can someone correct me or fault my Maths?
If Trump wins AL + PA + NC + GA + AZ, he is on 272.
I'm going to disagree with @rcs1000 here. I think there is still a very good chance DT could snatch AZ. In that case, it is game on.
In 2018, the Dems were behind at the end of election night, but ended up winning by 2.5%. I would imagine a similar trend will happen this time as postals are recieved.
Possibly but 2018's dynamic looks to be way different from 2020
Considering you spent half the night telling us that Virginia was going to go for Trump, I think I'll take your projections with a pinch of salt.
Mmmm, actually I didn't. What I asked was did anyone know what was going on as the early vote looked odd. CNN also raised it several times.
There are many things you could accuse me of, that it not one of them. For a law student, you seem quite sloppy in your looking at evidence.
Yes you did. For hours. It was tiresome and embarrassing.
Tell you what, you obviously have a bee in your bonnet about this. Why don't you go back and get me the posts I did from last night saying that VA was a definite Republican pick-up based on the early results?
I've just been out for three hours. What's moving the PA betting?
The Secretary of State has just appeared on CNN saying there are millions of ballots still to be counted. Plural.
I would say they're are about 2 million left. The remaining in person vote splits 50/50 between trump and Biden and the 1.3 million postals split heavily biden. If the split is 70/30 or better for Biden he wins.
Oh God, this isn't the sort of thing to lead to a rerun vote there is it? It gets dragged out enough as it is.
Can someone correct me or fault my Maths?
If Trump wins AL + PA + NC + GA + AZ, he is on 272.
I'm going to disagree with @rcs1000 here. I think there is still a very good chance DT could snatch AZ. In that case, it is game on.
In 2018, the Dems were behind at the end of election night, but ended up winning by 2.5%. I would imagine a similar trend will happen this time as postals are recieved.
Possibly but 2018's dynamic looks to be way different from 2020
Considering you spent half the night telling us that Virginia was going to go for Trump, I think I'll take your projections with a pinch of salt.
Mmmm, actually I didn't. What I asked was did anyone know what was going on as the early vote looked odd. CNN also raised it several times.
There are many things you could accuse me of, that it not one of them. For a law student, you seem quite sloppy in your looking at evidence.
Yes you did. For hours. It was tiresome and embarrassing.
Tell you what, you obviously have a bee in your bonnet about this. Why don't you go back and get me the posts I did from last night saying that VA was a definite Republican pick-up based on the early results?
You and I had a discussion at about 630am uk time, where you said (roughly) "what am I missing?"
For someone who has little knowledge of US politics and expected a Biden landslide for weeks, can I assume Biden will win this by this evening but that his margin of victory is much tighter than anyone expected and the Republicans will retain control of the Senate
And can I assume that in this scenario Trump is over, but Biden is constricted by the Senate thereby allowing the Republicans to find someone sane and to take on Biden as he deals with all the many problems in the US today and evidenced by so much obvious and terrible division
I think it’s very likely Biden has just done it. But I would like PA or GA to come in for him as well if I’m honest. NV is making me slightly nervous...
For someone who has little knowledge of US politics and expected a Biden landslide for weeks, can I assume Biden will win this by this evening but that his margin of victory is much tighter than anyone expected and the Republicans will retain control of the Senate
And can I assume that in this scenario Trump is over, but Biden is constricted by the Senate thereby allowing the Republicans to find someone sane and to take on Biden as he deals with all the many problems in the US today and evidenced by so much obvious and terrible division
I think it’s very likely Biden has just done it. But I would like PA or GA to come in for him as well if I’m honest. NV is making me slightly nervous...
North Carolina, we have a whole week of postal votes being valid if they are postmarked on or before election day. Given how slow USPS has been, this is a non trivial amount of time for Biden. (See Arizona 2018 where a deficit became a 2.5% lead once late arriving postals were counted.)
We have talked before about do people lock themselves down. I noticed when I popped out earlier that a very popular pub around my way, that is normally rammed for lunches every single day of the week, basically nobody there.
Why do I get a feeling that the next UK election will be close like this?
If its close here it doesnt matter in the same way as unlike the Presidency its not winner take all. If its as close as this US election it would be a coalition which depends on mood as much as numbers. If its a bit further apart then governing with a majority of a few isnt much better - you will lose MPs over time, especially if you do anything controversial, so you are constrained by the middle.
Oh God, this isn't the sort of thing to lead to a rerun vote there is it? It gets dragged out enough as it is.
Can someone correct me or fault my Maths?
If Trump wins AL + PA + NC + GA + AZ, he is on 272.
I'm going to disagree with @rcs1000 here. I think there is still a very good chance DT could snatch AZ. In that case, it is game on.
In 2018, the Dems were behind at the end of election night, but ended up winning by 2.5%. I would imagine a similar trend will happen this time as postals are recieved.
Possibly but 2018's dynamic looks to be way different from 2020
Considering you spent half the night telling us that Virginia was going to go for Trump, I think I'll take your projections with a pinch of salt.
Mmmm, actually I didn't. What I asked was did anyone know what was going on as the early vote looked odd. CNN also raised it several times.
There are many things you could accuse me of, that it not one of them. For a law student, you seem quite sloppy in your looking at evidence.
Yes you did. For hours. It was tiresome and embarrassing.
Tell you what, you obviously have a bee in your bonnet about this. Why don't you go back and get me the posts I did from last night saying that VA was a definite Republican pick-up based on the early results?
I don't need to. Everyone saw you ramping Trump in Virginia repeatedly, despite being constantly reminded that when Fairfax and the DC suburbs came in it would be eclipsed but you did not listen.
Oh God, this isn't the sort of thing to lead to a rerun vote there is it? It gets dragged out enough as it is.
Can someone correct me or fault my Maths?
If Trump wins AL + PA + NC + GA + AZ, he is on 272.
I'm going to disagree with @rcs1000 here. I think there is still a very good chance DT could snatch AZ. In that case, it is game on.
In 2018, the Dems were behind at the end of election night, but ended up winning by 2.5%. I would imagine a similar trend will happen this time as postals are recieved.
Possibly but 2018's dynamic looks to be way different from 2020
The key here is that there are still mail in votes to be recieved and they will be overwhelmingly for Biden.
So while there is some in-person in Arizona to count that benefits Trump, I can't see it being anywhere near enough.
Biden +4 would be my estimate.
The ballots will lean R. Arizona doesn't have the same dynamic as the midwest VBM.
For someone who has little knowledge of US politics and expected a Biden landslide for weeks, can I assume Biden will win this by this evening but that his margin of victory is much tighter than anyone expected and the Republicans will retain control of the Senate
And can I assume that in this scenario Trump is over, but Biden is constricted by the Senate thereby allowing the Republicans to find someone sane and to take on Biden as he deals with all the many problems in the US today and evidenced by so much obvious and terrible division
I think it’s very likely Biden has just done it. But I would like PA or GA to come in for him as well if I’m honest. NV is making me slightly nervous...
CNN finally drilled down into the Nevada counties, which they (and Fox) have been ignoring all day due to the changes happening in the rust belt. From what I saw the claim that 'only postal votes' in Clark County, which favours the Dems a fair bit, is wrong. There are still quite a few votes o/s in the rurals which ofc favours Trump.
No way to know the numbers , hopefully Ralston can give some later, but it will depend i guess how many of those rural voters who voted by mail in the last day or two were Republicans. The split in Clark County (by far the biggest in NV) is 55/45 Biden , Clinton got 52 in 2016
Oh God, this isn't the sort of thing to lead to a rerun vote there is it? It gets dragged out enough as it is.
Can someone correct me or fault my Maths?
If Trump wins AL + PA + NC + GA + AZ, he is on 272.
I'm going to disagree with @rcs1000 here. I think there is still a very good chance DT could snatch AZ. In that case, it is game on.
In 2018, the Dems were behind at the end of election night, but ended up winning by 2.5%. I would imagine a similar trend will happen this time as postals are recieved.
Possibly but 2018's dynamic looks to be way different from 2020
Considering you spent half the night telling us that Virginia was going to go for Trump, I think I'll take your projections with a pinch of salt.
Mmmm, actually I didn't. What I asked was did anyone know what was going on as the early vote looked odd. CNN also raised it several times.
There are many things you could accuse me of, that it not one of them. For a law student, you seem quite sloppy in your looking at evidence.
Yes you did. For hours. It was tiresome and embarrassing.
Tell you what, you obviously have a bee in your bonnet about this. Why don't you go back and get me the posts I did from last night saying that VA was a definite Republican pick-up based on the early results?
You and I had a discussion at about 630am uk time, where you said (roughly) "what am I missing?"
Not a big deal but I was in bed at 6:30am and I have just rechecked my posts to see whether I missed posting something but there were no posts at 6:30.
I don’t get the anger about votes received after polling day not counting.
Seems obvious to me.
The puzzlement to us is that each of the 50 states makes its own election laws, which are subject to SC review. In the UK we will have detailed laws about when a postal ballot must be sent/received/the form in which it must be done etc, and these must be adhered to. They are bound to be arbitrary with regard to items sent before date X but not received by date Y. In the UK we have one such set of rules for GEs. In the US they have 50.
If the EU gets around to electing a president one day they will face the same problem. At that point remainers may at least have one tiny reason for being glad we are not trying to run an election for a single appointment jointly with Romanians and Latvians.
Oh God, this isn't the sort of thing to lead to a rerun vote there is it? It gets dragged out enough as it is.
Can someone correct me or fault my Maths?
If Trump wins AL + PA + NC + GA + AZ, he is on 272.
I'm going to disagree with @rcs1000 here. I think there is still a very good chance DT could snatch AZ. In that case, it is game on.
In 2018, the Dems were behind at the end of election night, but ended up winning by 2.5%. I would imagine a similar trend will happen this time as postals are recieved.
Possibly but 2018's dynamic looks to be way different from 2020
Considering you spent half the night telling us that Virginia was going to go for Trump, I think I'll take your projections with a pinch of salt.
Mmmm, actually I didn't. What I asked was did anyone know what was going on as the early vote looked odd. CNN also raised it several times.
There are many things you could accuse me of, that it not one of them. For a law student, you seem quite sloppy in your looking at evidence.
Yes you did. For hours. It was tiresome and embarrassing.
Tell you what, you obviously have a bee in your bonnet about this. Why don't you go back and get me the posts I did from last night saying that VA was a definite Republican pick-up based on the early results?
I don't need to. Everyone saw you ramping Trump in Virginia repeatedly, despite being constantly reminded that when Fairfax and the DC suburbs came in it would be eclipsed but you did not listen.
Yup. It was endless, tiresome noise when there were more pressing matters to worry about.
Reducing my exposure to Trump at these prices - 5.4 at moment.
Getting a bad feeling my friends.
Basically Trump is calling fraud in every state left thats close and he might lose. So even if they turn blue he's preparing the ground. For the first time in days NV is worrying me. The fact the Trump campaign are quoting figures as specific as 'winning by 5500' doesnt sound like just 'making noise' to me. They must have seen something specific of exactly what's left to be counted.
Yes, feels like something is happening there and they have an idea of the vote.
I'm kicking myself I listened to Ralston. My thesis was that, given the dependence of the state on tourism and events, enough voters - especially Hispanic workers - would flip.
To be fair it wasnt just Ralston saying this, several networks when discussing whats' left said the same about all is just a few Clark postal votes, but frustratingly no one drilled down into the counties to see exactly what is really left and where.
I think in all the excitement for the rust belts swinging back to Biden, NV got forgotten as 'its only 6 votes' but it does change the path for both if it does flip. Hopefully later Ralston will post whats still to be counted for the whole county and that will tell us much more. But clearly Trumps campaign think they have around +15000 votes to what the dems have still to come in. Who knows,,,,
My s-i-l lives in Las Vegas and they're feeling pessimistic NV will stay for Biden.
Or, if you didn't you might be licking your wounds. Like me
I really wish I'd never heard the name Joe Biden! Cost me on the nomination and now on the result. I wouldn't mind so much if I thought we'd get something decent out of him as a President, but you may as well wish for a Ferrari from a Christmas cracker.
This last twenty four hours, I’ve seen so many of these Fox News ads that I am beginning to wish I too could send off for the frying pan that you can hit with a hammer, the torch-pen you can drive your truck over, the unspecified solution to speed up middle aged urinary flow, and a whole stack of other stuff that sounds really good to have.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
It is very, very unclear how many NC votes are outstanding to count.
IN NC VOTES POSTMARKED ON OR BEFORE ELECTION DAY ARE COUNTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK
In 2018, that resulted in a massive move to the Dems in Arizona. They were behind 0.5% on the night, but ended up 2.5%.
The postal service is - if anything -slower this time than in 2018, and mail voting more prevalent. So I think it's entirely possible (maybe even likely) than the Dem needle will move 2.5% in NC.
Bravo. Is an aisle of Christmas toys to be blocked off in a Tesco Extra store, but remain on sale in a Tesco Superstore as its only half an aisle? The workaround there is a quick remerchandise to put in a shelf of food items in the middle.
Who writes these stupid fucking rules? And as the Welsh fiasco was Mark Drakesford's fault I assume he wrote the SI for England as well?
My take on the states in doubt, in order of certainty for Biden...
i) Michigan <- 100% solid ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead ------------------- <Ends up with these above the line> v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy. vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)
Why days before imposing a lockdown that is absolutely essential to save the NHS? Why days to organise those final piss-ups? Just go on telly, Boris - and say the bar is now shut, the borders now closed. Go home directly, stay there. The amount of fannying around prior to a lockdown kicking in is risible.
Here's the latest from Ralston in NEV, seems Trumps campaign 'calling ' it for Trump but the feed shows its still up in the air and seems to favour the Dems still but clearly this is much much closer than anyone was thinking. https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324022354729562115
Oh God, this isn't the sort of thing to lead to a rerun vote there is it? It gets dragged out enough as it is.
Can someone correct me or fault my Maths?
If Trump wins AL + PA + NC + GA + AZ, he is on 272.
I'm going to disagree with @rcs1000 here. I think there is still a very good chance DT could snatch AZ. In that case, it is game on.
In 2018, the Dems were behind at the end of election night, but ended up winning by 2.5%. I would imagine a similar trend will happen this time as postals are recieved.
Possibly but 2018's dynamic looks to be way different from 2020
Considering you spent half the night telling us that Virginia was going to go for Trump, I think I'll take your projections with a pinch of salt.
Mmmm, actually I didn't. What I asked was did anyone know what was going on as the early vote looked odd. CNN also raised it several times.
There are many things you could accuse me of, that it not one of them. For a law student, you seem quite sloppy in your looking at evidence.
Yes you did. For hours. It was tiresome and embarrassing.
Tell you what, you obviously have a bee in your bonnet about this. Why don't you go back and get me the posts I did from last night saying that VA was a definite Republican pick-up based on the early results?
I don't need to. Everyone saw you ramping Trump in Virginia repeatedly, despite being constantly reminded that when Fairfax and the DC suburbs came in it would be eclipsed but you did not listen.
End of the day @Gallowgate I said this would be a close vote and the likes of you were the most vehement saying that was wrong and being rude about it. So if I was you, I wouldn't get on your high horse, don't mention the splinter in your brother's eye when you have a plank in your own etc etc. You were banking on senseless about how Biden would sweep all before him.
Why days before imposing a lockdown that is absolutely essential to save the NHS? Why days to organise those final piss-ups? Just go on telly, Boris - and say the bar is now shut, the borders now closed. Go home directly, stay there. The amount of fannying around prior to a lockdown kicking in is risible.
I pointed out the other day the ridiculous rules within the tiers. Tier 2, don't make unnecessary journeys, don't travel outside your tier to a lower tier. Sounds sensible....Except for holidays, holidays are allowed, to any tier.....
Is Biden at 1.75 value for 52-55% of vote? He is currently at 50.1% on Nytimes... but there are a lot of votes left in California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland... Plausibly could be another 3m out there for him...
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
It is very, very unclear how many NC votes are outstanding to count.
IN NC VOTES POSTMARKED ON OR BEFORE ELECTION DAY ARE COUNTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK
In 2018, that resulted in a massive move to the Dems in Arizona. They were behind 0.5% on the night, but ended up 2.5%.
The postal service is - if anything -slower this time than in 2018, and mail voting more prevalent. So I think it's entirely possible (maybe even likely) than the Dem needle will move 2.5% in NC.
I read a report saying their were 200,000 postal still to be counted.
But then a later report made it really ambiguous as to whether that was 200,000 received ballots still to be counted or the total number of possible postal that could still be received.
As there are 400,000 mail ballots requested and not counted I have taken it to mean their are 200,000 actual real postal to be counted.
Which would probably mean Biden takes NC. But if these are notional postals then Trump easily holds on.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Reducing my exposure to Trump at these prices - 5.4 at moment.
Getting a bad feeling my friends.
Basically Trump is calling fraud in every state left thats close and he might lose. So even if they turn blue he's preparing the ground. For the first time in days NV is worrying me. The fact the Trump campaign are quoting figures as specific as 'winning by 5500' doesnt sound like just 'making noise' to me. They must have seen something specific of exactly what's left to be counted.
Yes, feels like something is happening there and they have an idea of the vote.
I'm kicking myself I listened to Ralston. My thesis was that, given the dependence of the state on tourism and events, enough voters - especially Hispanic workers - would flip.
To be fair it wasnt just Ralston saying this, several networks when discussing whats' left said the same about all is just a few Clark postal votes, but frustratingly no one drilled down into the counties to see exactly what is really left and where.
I think in all the excitement for the rust belts swinging back to Biden, NV got forgotten as 'its only 6 votes' but it does change the path for both if it does flip. Hopefully later Ralston will post whats still to be counted for the whole county and that will tell us much more. But clearly Trumps campaign think they have around +15000 votes to what the dems have still to come in. Who knows,,,,
My s-i-l lives in Las Vegas and they're feeling pessimistic NV will stay for Biden.
About 400.000 votes left in AZ, the 98% figure NYT had on their site was wrong, its around 86% I believe, so still a path for Trump to win there as well. Some of the coverage n the stations is really awful. Some of them are spending all their time going on about Trumps earlier comments. Geez , count and focus on the votes then deal with that later
Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the “pollsters” got it completely & historically wrong!
My take on the states in doubt, in order of certainty for Biden...
i) Michigan <- 100% solid ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead ------------------- <Ends up with these above the line> v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy. vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)</p>
We have no idea how many ballots are to come in NC, because (so long as they are delivered by the 12th and don't have a postmark after the 3rd) then they count.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
About 400.000 votes left in AZ, the 98% figure NYT had on their site was wrong, its around 86% I believe, so still a path for Trump to win there as well. Some of the coverage n the stations is really awful. Some of them are spending all their time going on about Trumps earlier comments. Geez , count and focus on the votes then deal with that later
A key learning point from this election is the rough and ready way that total votes are estimated. If turnout is rising, there’ll be more votes still to be counted than the official estimates assume. Conversely, the reverse. A useful nugget of info to file away.
My take on the states in doubt, in order of certainty for Biden...
i) Michigan <- 100% solid ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead ------------------- <Ends up with these above the line> v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy. vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)</p>
We have no idea how many ballots are to come in NC, because (so long as they are delivered by the 12th and don't have a postmark after the 3rd) then they count.
Why days before imposing a lockdown that is absolutely essential to save the NHS? Why days to organise those final piss-ups? Just go on telly, Boris - and say the bar is now shut, the borders now closed. Go home directly, stay there. The amount of fannying around prior to a lockdown kicking in is risible.
I pointed out the other day the ridiculous rules within the tiers. Tier 2, don't make unnecessary journeys, don't travel outside your tier to a lower tier. Sounds sensible....Except for holidays, holidays are allowed, to any tier.....
Hence why Mr Corbyn has been taking a break in a hotel just down the road?
Bravo. Is an aisle of Christmas toys to be blocked off in a Tesco Extra store, but remain on sale in a Tesco Superstore as its only half an aisle? The workaround there is a quick remerchandise to put in a shelf of food items in the middle.
Who writes these stupid fucking rules? And as the Welsh fiasco was Mark Drakesford's fault I assume he wrote the SI for England as well?
I take it that Lidl's central Aisle of Shite is off limits from tomorrow?
It's genuinely possible Biden lost in Florida due to vote rigging
On the contrary, that's not very possible. Florida updated every 20 minutes with the registered voters from each party who had cast their votes. That rich flow of information would make fraud very hard to conceal.
Or, if you didn't you might be licking your wounds. Like me
I really wish I'd never heard the name Joe Biden! Cost me on the nomination and now on the result. I wouldn't mind so much if I thought we'd get something decent out of him as a President, but you may as well wish for a Ferrari from a Christmas cracker.
Getting rid of Trump would in my opinion make him the most important president ever. Does anyone know if he's going to win.?
If you were going to steal this election for the Dems, by finding lots of postal votes stuffed down the sofa, you couldn't do it in this scenario without grossly inflating the turnout could you?
There was much annoying pro-Trump trolling early this morning, but I think you just took the prize.
Thanks. I am just trying to get it straight in my head. IF this happened, it would show as significantly elevated turnout in the 'late Biden surge' states that counted their postal ballots last, and turnout being as predicted, or at least significantly lower, in the 'Trump surge' states where they were counted first.
At the end of the day, this is going to the SC. I’ve been told on good authority that the reason the Rs rushed through Barrett was not because they thought they would lose the Senate but that they were “terrified” (and this is their word, not mine) that the Democrats would continue to find postal ballots until the Ds won in the states. It’s essentially what happened in several of the CA House seats in 2018 (it was never proved but ballot harvesting was suspected).
This argument came from a very well connected, establishment Republican who is anti-Trump
Even if everything was above board, it doesn't look good from a Trump supporter's perspective.
Most states count the postal votes first and on the day votes last, except the Democrat run marginal states where they do it in reverse, so they know exactly how many votes they need to win each state (and also by then which states they need to win).
Surely the law in Pennsylvania preventing mail-in ballots from being counted or processed earlier was passed by the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania state assembly? (for example) I've certainly heard more push from Dems than Rs for work on postal votes to begin early, precisely to avoid Trump trying to claim victory on the night.
Fair enough, although Trump might win PA anyway.
If the Dems wanted early counting, why didn't they do it in states they control?
That was because Milwaukee declared almost all their mail in vote in one go.
And the Dems got 100% of that? You can see the Dems gain 200k and the Reps get no extra votes at all.
Almost yes, because Milwaukee is heavily Democrat and GOP voters were told to vote on the day. If you look at Milwaukee vs 2016 then there's clearly nothing out of the usual going on.
Well I can believe 85%-15% I suppose...but 100%-0% all at once?
That just seems impossible and it happened in MI too
When people talked about it here it was 140k votes for Biden out of 150k. So Trump did receive 10k votes in that declaration. People staring at graphs afterwards are being silly.
'Silly staring at graphs' isn't a rebuke I ever expected to see on PB. As long as it gets rid of Trump, we should ignore the data should we?
But the graphs did not say what DAlexander and the tweeters said they said. They both showed increases to both Biden and Trump's vote tally. So the silliness isn't so much at staring at the graphs, but misreading them so patently.
The more reason to stare at them, it would seem to me. On the face of it, to me, these results seem ridiculous. If it was Trump finding just enough miraculous postal votes in key states at the 11th hour to overturn Biden leads, the whole world would be losing their shit.
I think that is exactly how Trump supporters will want to present this data. But it is neither ridiculous nor unexpected - if you simply look at which precincts were reporting when those tallies were dumped.
Let's put it another way. Biden is leading in key states and looking as though he is cruising to victory. Then there is a sudden rush of postal votes, showing 90%+ to Trump, which then changes the dynamic, with almost no votes to Biden. You saying you would not be questioning what happened?
Not if the one losing out discouraged using postal votes among his supporters. Hes provided an explanation.
90%+.........?
I suppose it depends on whether there were many 90%+ batches of Dem votes in early voting in other close states or not.
If these are the only ones and it just so happens that they were found later on when Biden was otherwise going to lose, then that looks suspicious to me.
I find it odd that you aren't just as concerned about the number of undelivered mail ballots in Florida and other places.
My take on the states in doubt, in order of certainty for Biden...
i) Michigan <- 100% solid ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead ------------------- <Ends up with these above the line> v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy. vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)</p>
We have no idea how many ballots are to come in NC, because (so long as they are delivered by the 12th and don't have a postmark after the 3rd) then they count.
I agree with most of those, except NEV, I am very unsure now , I too thought the mail just adds to the Dem total but as Ralston points out in his twitter feed there are he believes around 50-60K mail votes in Clark County left to count (which ofc will split heavily D) but then adds this 'There are also tens of thousands of same-day registration provisional ballots in Clark. GOP overperformed in same-day (which they, of course, opposed) but not by the margin the Dems are expected to win mail.
There are also a few thousand mail ballots and provisionals in Washoe.
Key word there is 'expected' .It seems the Trump campaigns confidence in NV is based on these same day reg ballots which they did very well today in , in those counted. Is this enough? Who knows but NV certainly seems very much in play.
Bravo. Is an aisle of Christmas toys to be blocked off in a Tesco Extra store, but remain on sale in a Tesco Superstore as its only half an aisle? The workaround there is a quick remerchandise to put in a shelf of food items in the middle.
Who writes these stupid fucking rules? And as the Welsh fiasco was Mark Drakesford's fault I assume he wrote the SI for England as well?
Any other proof it is true, like Whitehall announcement on internet? After everything thrown at Welsh government about this policy, why would Boris and his team now be adopting it considering the agro that will come their way, with added claims of hypocracy?
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
'Les marchés d’actions ont connu un rebond en début de semaine grâce à des indicateurs économiques supérieurs aux attentes et à des résultats d’entreprises meilleurs qu’attendu malgré les inquiétudes autour de la crise sanitaire et des élections américaines. L’indice CAC 40 a progressé de 1,6% sur une semaine. La recrudescence de la propagation de la Covid-19 (deuxième vague) a entraîné la mise en place dans de nombreux pays européens de nouvelles mesures de confinement. Moins restrictif qu’au printemps pour les entreprises, la baisse d’activité devrait donc être moins forte que lors de la première vague'...
Bravo. Is an aisle of Christmas toys to be blocked off in a Tesco Extra store, but remain on sale in a Tesco Superstore as its only half an aisle? The workaround there is a quick remerchandise to put in a shelf of food items in the middle.
Who writes these stupid fucking rules? And as the Welsh fiasco was Mark Drakesford's fault I assume he wrote the SI for England as well?
Any other proof it is true, like Whitehall announcement on internet? After everything thrown at Welsh government about this policy, why would Boris and his team now be adopting it considering the agro that will come their way, with added claims of hypocracy?
Careful, This is fake news?
Given that the Welsh government has been rather clearer and more coherent than London throughout, on average, then why are you surprised?
My take on the states in doubt, in order of certainty for Biden...
i) Michigan <- 100% solid ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead ------------------- <Ends up with these above the line> v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy. vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)</p>
We have no idea how many ballots are to come in NC, because (so long as they are delivered by the 12th and don't have a postmark after the 3rd) then they count.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
Comments
And can I assume that in this scenario Trump is over, but Biden is constricted by the Senate thereby allowing the Republicans to find someone sane and to take on Biden as he deals with all the many problems in the US today and evidenced by so much obvious and terrible division
It makes them rather more powerful.
EDIT: And there's your political thriller....
516 - 38
English supermarkets told to cordon off areas of non-essential goods
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/service-and-availability/english-supermarkets-told-to-cordon-off-areas-of-non-essential-goods/650001.article
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1324008898832064514?s=20
No way to know the numbers , hopefully Ralston can give some later, but it will depend i guess how many of those rural voters who voted by mail in the last day or two were Republicans. The split in Clark County (by far the biggest in NV) is 55/45 Biden , Clinton got 52 in 2016
Biden 238
Wins Michigan +16
Wins North Carolina +15
Biden 269
If the EU gets around to electing a president one day they will face the same problem. At that point remainers may at least have one tiny reason for being glad we are not trying to run an election for a single appointment jointly with Romanians and Latvians.
Sounds promising for Biden so far...
Who can trust a word this administration says at the moment.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-deutsche-bank-exclusive/exclusive-tired-of-trump-deutsche-bank-wants-out-but-sees-no-good-options-sources-idUSKBN27J0G0
I really wish I'd never heard the name Joe Biden! Cost me on the nomination and now on the result. I wouldn't mind so much if I thought we'd get something decent out of him as a President, but you may as well wish for a Ferrari from a Christmas cracker.
In 2018, that resulted in a massive move to the Dems in Arizona. They were behind 0.5% on the night, but ended up 2.5%.
The postal service is - if anything -slower this time than in 2018, and mail voting more prevalent. So I think it's entirely possible (maybe even likely) than the Dem needle will move 2.5% in NC.
Who writes these stupid fucking rules? And as the Welsh fiasco was Mark Drakesford's fault I assume he wrote the SI for England as well?
i) Michigan <- 100% solid
ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won
iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead
iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead
------------------- <Ends up with these above the line>
v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy.
vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA
vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324022354729562115
He is currently at 50.1% on Nytimes... but there are a lot of votes left in California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland... Plausibly could be another 3m out there for him...
But then a later report made it really ambiguous as to whether that was 200,000 received ballots still to be counted or the total number of possible postal that could still be received.
As there are 400,000 mail ballots requested and not counted I have taken it to mean their are 200,000 actual real postal to be counted.
Which would probably mean Biden takes NC. But if these are notional postals then Trump easily holds on.
Let her poll every state.
Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the “pollsters” got it completely & historically wrong!
https://twitter.com/AmyKremer/status/1324022757118627840
https://twitter.com/dcdufour/status/1324019676553318400
Biden takes WI, MI, AZ - 264
Trump takes NV, GA, NC - 254
PA decides the winner which to me looks like Biden from the available information about postal votes.
'There are also tens of thousands of same-day registration provisional ballots in Clark. GOP overperformed in same-day (which they, of course, opposed) but not by the margin the Dems are expected to win mail.
There are also a few thousand mail ballots and provisionals in Washoe.
Key word there is 'expected' .It seems the Trump campaigns confidence in NV is based on these same day reg ballots which they did very well today in , in those counted. Is this enough? Who knows but NV certainly seems very much in play.
Careful, This is fake news?
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
'Les marchés d’actions ont connu un rebond en début de semaine grâce à des indicateurs économiques supérieurs aux attentes et à des résultats d’entreprises meilleurs qu’attendu malgré les inquiétudes autour de la crise sanitaire et des élections américaines. L’indice CAC 40 a progressé de 1,6% sur une semaine. La recrudescence de la propagation de la Covid-19 (deuxième vague) a entraîné la mise en place dans de nombreux pays européens de nouvelles mesures de confinement. Moins restrictif qu’au printemps pour les entreprises, la baisse d’activité devrait donc être moins forte que lors de la première vague'...