Yes, and that's why I'm not certain that PA is a slamdunk as many are making out. Biden is the favourite, but Trump's current margin in absolute vote terms is really very large so there are no guarantees of it flipping like WI or MI which didn't have the same large margins this late into their counts.
My take on the states in doubt, in order of certainty for Biden...
i) Michigan <- 100% solid ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead ------------------- <Ends up with these above the line> v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy. vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)</p>
We have no idea how many ballots are to come in NC, because (so long as they are delivered by the 12th and don't have a postmark after the 3rd) then they count.
Bravo. Is an aisle of Christmas toys to be blocked off in a Tesco Extra store, but remain on sale in a Tesco Superstore as its only half an aisle? The workaround there is a quick remerchandise to put in a shelf of food items in the middle.
Who writes these stupid fucking rules? And as the Welsh fiasco was Mark Drakesford's fault I assume he wrote the SI for England as well?
Any other proof it is true, like Whitehall announcement on internet? After everything thrown at Welsh government about this policy, why would Boris and his team now be adopting it considering the agro that will come their way, with added claims of hypocracy?
Careful, This is fake news?
They did this at the last lockdown. I assume it covers say a Marks and Spencer which has clothes, homeware and food. But the issue is treating clothes as non-essential. Some clothes are bloody essential!!!
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
It's genuinely possible Biden lost in Florida due to vote rigging
On the contrary, that's not very possible. Florida updated every 20 minutes with the registered voters from each party who had cast their votes. That rich flow of information would make fraud very hard to conceal.
And turnout in Florida is about 1.5 million votes more than last time - hardly a sign of voter suppression.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
In AZ's case it's been called by Fox and AP, so I guess people made a mental note it was a lock.
NV is a funny one, there's been lots of speculation but they are counting it now and best price on the Dems is 1.19.
Doesn't suggest anyone at the count thinks it's going GOP.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
You do know that there will be 100,000 postal votes recived in AZ in the next week that will count, right?
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
I am more bullish on AZ than NV. Largely because the AP has called AZ. I dont claim that they’re infallible, but they’re usually pretty cautious and I don’t think they would have done it unless they were very confident.
But who knows. This could still all come down to PA.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
My take on the states in doubt, in order of certainty for Biden...
i) Michigan <- 100% solid ii) Wisconsin <- Recount inevitable but won iii) Nevada <- Remaining mail winds up adding to lead iv) Pennsylvania <- Margin in remaining mail gives Biden lead ------------------- <Ends up with these above the line> v) Arizona <- Trump may well end up ahead due to remaining ballots needing to fill normal R leaning precints. Also some on the day stuff which will be very Trumpy. vi) Georgia <- Insufficient ballots to get over the line in GA vii) North Carolina (Won't get, not enough ballots left)</p>
We have no idea how many ballots are to come in NC, because (so long as they are delivered by the 12th and don't have a postmark after the 3rd) then they count.
Why not? He's 58000 votes behind and in other states the mail votes have split about 75-25 to Biden
Shows how tight it's going to be on that basis (and assuming all 117,000 votes were actually cast and arrive in time) Biden would win by less than 1000 votes.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
To be fair I think it was only Fox of the major networks who called AZ too early. either way . Trumps team seem very confident on AZ and NV and it sounds more than just mood music , but then who knows.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Talk of recount for WI.
There will be a recount and it won't change anything, just like there are recounts and they never change anything in the UK.
Also, the margin is such that a recount is very very unlikely to shift the result to Trump. Maybe a few hundred votes here or there. But not overturning tens of thousands.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Talk of recount for WI.
There will be a recount and it won't change anything, just like there are recounts and they never change anything in the UK.
I was just thinking that – my dad told me as a young boy that when a party asks for a recount they have lost the seat. I can never remember that being wrong!
Question: why did pollsters massively undercall the vote for Trump Answer: if you were a decent human being would you want to admit to voting for *that*?
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
Once we see the numbers of what votes are actually left where we will know more but NV are saying that wont be updated until tomorrow when the final count is done! Hopefully Ralston can find something out today.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
To be fair I think it was only Fox of the major networks who called AZ too early. either way . Trumps team seem very confident on AZ and NV and it sounds more than just mood music , but then who knows.
Trump's team may very well be right that he's ahead at the end of today. But mail in ballots will keep being recieved today, tomorrow, and all through the weekend.
A few states will trend blue over the coming days. I expect Biden will win Michigan and Pennsylvania by ~3pp and 2pp respectively, meaning while polls weren't great, tehy were not terrible.
in NH and Maine they did well. They picked up toss ups in Georgia and NC. They went only slightly off drift in Florida.
Wait a few days, see what the final results say. Biden could have won by 5-6% nationally.
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Talk of recount for WI.
There will be a recount and it won't change anything, just like there are recounts and they never change anything in the UK.
I was just thinking that – my dad told me as a young boy that when a party asks for a recount they have lost the seat. I can never remember that being wrong!
This is completely different. Trump is going to use every power and lawyer he has to declare enough of the votes being recounted as invalid.
A few states will trend blue over the coming days. I expect Biden will win Michigan and Pennsylvania by ~3pp and 2pp respectively, meaning while polls weren't great, tehy were not terrible.
in NH and Maine they did well. They picked up toss ups in Georgia and NC. They went only slightly off drift in Florida.
Wait a few days, see what the final results say. Biden could have won by 5-6% nationally.
The other question is about the number of postal ballots not recieved by polling day.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
Yes it's postal vote, but it's the latest of the postal votes and it's not just in blue areas. It won't be as blue as the VBM to date or as red as the ED voting. Of the two I think NV is better value, but I think they are both good value losers.
A few states will trend blue over the coming days. I expect Biden will win Michigan and Pennsylvania by ~3pp and 2pp respectively, meaning while polls weren't great, tehy were not terrible.
in NH and Maine they did well. They picked up toss ups in Georgia and NC. They went only slightly off drift in Florida.
Wait a few days, see what the final results say. Biden could have won by 5-6% nationally.
The other question is about the number of postal ballots not recieved by polling day.
Turnout estimates (and thus "97% of votes counted" will, I suspect, prove to be somewhat off.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
NV has not been called by anyone
Correct, Fox called AZ hours ago, NV has lain gathering dust while everyone frothed over the rust belt states, and only now is stirring!!
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Yes, I think there is, we'll need to see how the PA postals break down a bit though.
CNN mentioned there are a few solid Red counties that deliberately did not count votes on election night and will start today. That has to be taken into account.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
To be fair I think it was only Fox of the major networks who called AZ too early. either way . Trumps team seem very confident on AZ and NV and it sounds more than just mood music , but then who knows.
Trump's team may very well be right that he's ahead at the end of today. But mail in ballots will keep being recieved today, tomorrow, and all through the weekend.
That's why Biden's team is also very confident.
Are they on AZ? I thought according to the report below, Biden's Campaign Manager didn't mention NV / AZ specifically but did call out other states.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
To be fair I think it was only Fox of the major networks who called AZ too early. either way . Trumps team seem very confident on AZ and NV and it sounds more than just mood music , but then who knows.
Trump's team may very well be right that he's ahead at the end of today. But mail in ballots will keep being recieved today, tomorrow, and all through the weekend.
That's why Biden's team is also very confident.
I thought Biden was already ahead in Nevada and Arizona? Is he actually going to need late arriving ballots?
Just been doing some checks on the count in PA, Biden is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Trump is at the moment, if that holds then Trump will take it, his lead is too big.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
NV has not been called by anyone
Correct, Fox called AZ hours ago, NV has lain gathering dust while everyone frothed over the rust belt states, and only now is stirring!!
And bizarrely, finishes the count tomorrow. I’m not sure what they’re all busy with in Nevada today, but it had better be important.
As things stand of the remaining states left to call Biden will win Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and Trump will win Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alaska making it Biden 270 and Trump 268 and the closest EC result since 1876
My guess is that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, AZ but loses NV.
NC could also enter the Democrat column if enough late arriving postal votes come in.
My guess AZ, NV, NC = Trump; WI / MI = Biden, PA = too close to call
We have a whole week of mail in ballots for the Dems to receive in Arizona, why wouldn't you expect them to be overwhelmingly for Biden?
Again, it comes back to whether the 2018 dynamic is the same as 2020. If it is, you are right. If it is not, and a lot of this has already been subsumed in the general voting trends. I don't know whether the comment about AZ mail-in being different from mid west is true
Both sides used VBM in Arizona, it's the normal method for elections. This is from MAGA twitter and I have no pleasure in sharing it but I think it's likely to be accurate
So AZ + NC + GA + NV + ME-2 + Alaska gets Trump to 261.
So we are right back again to all on PA as I think MI and WI are gone for Trump
Trump at 5.5 looks value at moment.
Talk of recount for WI.
There will be a recount and it won't change anything, just like there are recounts and they never change anything in the UK.
I was just thinking that – my dad told me as a young boy that when a party asks for a recount they have lost the seat. I can never remember that being wrong!
This is completely different. Trump is going to use every power and lawyer he has to declare enough of the votes being recounted as invalid.
Sure, but that's hard to do when a majority of Americans are against you.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
GOP are 5.1 to win NV with the count being done now.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
Yes it's postal vote, but it's the latest of the postal votes and it's not just in blue areas. It won't be as blue as the VBM to date or as red as the ED voting. Of the two I think NV is better value, but I think they are both good value losers.
Thing is its not just postal votes outstanding in Nevada, there are also quoting Ralston 'There are also tens of thousands of same-day registration provisional ballots in Clark. GOP overperformed in same-day today so far but not by the margin the Dems are expected to win mail. There are also some votes in other rural states to be added. Not saying its enough for Trump but its these same day reg votes that make the Trump campaign think they can win. I've no idea if their numbers they see are right.
For NV and AZ I think on the day provisional ballots may actually break for Trump, in AZ it probably won't be enough to change the result by NV really is such a close race it may make the difference.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
NV has not been called by anyone
Correct, Fox called AZ hours ago, NV has lain gathering dust while everyone frothed over the rust belt states, and only now is stirring!!
And bizarrely, finishes the count tomorrow. I’m not sure what they’re all busy with in Nevada today, but it had better be important.
Just been doing some checks on the count in PA, Biden is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Trump is at the moment, if that holds then Trump will take it, his lead is too big.
I really have no idea why so many pundits and media were just ignoring AZ and NV so much and in some places just assuming Biden had them. All this focus on the 3 rust belt states is fine but it seems that all that time something else was being missed perhaps. Particularly in NV there has been mood music all day that it was very tight, partly due , as I think Mr Ed mentioned earlier to the Latino vote moving to Trump there too
The networks called it way too early. I think with NV they followed Ralston who effectively had said the race was all over and with AZ I think they saw Maricopa and assumed job done.
I am more bullish on AZ than NV. Largely because the AP has called AZ. I dont claim that they’re infallible, but they’re usually pretty cautious and I don’t think they would have done it unless they were very confident.
But who knows. This could still all come down to PA.
Just been doing some checks on the count in PA, Biden is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Trump is at the moment, if that holds then Trump will take it, his lead is too big.
Question: why did pollsters massively undercall the vote for Trump Answer: if you were a decent human being would you want to admit to voting for *that*?
If you were a decent human being would you want to vote for *that*?
Just been doing some checks on the count in PA, Biden is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Trump is at the moment, if that holds then Trump will take it, his lead is too big.
Not good. Where are you seeing this?
Just by eye from the NYT vote tallies so it's unscientific, but both updates since I started checking have come in at the same 2:1 ratio.
I don't really get why the Democrats are so concerned about comparisons with 2000. In 2000 the situation involved recounts and selective recounts at that. And Bush was ahead.
This time this is about actual counts. And if it goes to court it will be because Biden is ahead. It's a completely situation.
Just been doing some checks on the count in PA, Biden is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Trump is at the moment, if that holds then Trump will take it, his lead is too big.
Not good. Where are you seeing this?
If the votespa.com website is to believe there is still 1.2 million postals outstanding. This is mostly on the day votes for Philly coming in.
That sid my analysis now says Biden loses PA by 4 figures - although ther eis defeinetly some dodgy data in their due to Penn saying counties haven't reported any results and Everyone else saying they have. So I am double counting a bunch of small but heavily Trump states.
Just been doing some checks on the count in PA, Biden is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Trump is at the moment, if that holds then Trump will take it, his lead is too big.
Not good. Where are you seeing this?
If the votespa.com website is to believe there is still 1.2 million postals outstanding. This is mostly on the day votes for Philly coming in.
That sid my analysis now says Biden loses PA by 4 figures - although ther eis defeinetly some dodgy data in their due to Penn saying counties haven't reported any results and Everyone else saying they have. So I am double counting a bunch of small but heavily Trump states.
CNN mentioned this - they said some heavily pro-Trump counties had said they would be swamped on election day and would only count afterwards
Just been doing some checks on the count in PA, Biden is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Trump is at the moment, if that holds then Trump will take it, his lead is too big.
Not good. Where are you seeing this?
If the votespa.com website is to believe there is still 1.2 million postals outstanding. This is mostly on the day votes for Philly coming in.
That sid my analysis now says Biden loses PA by 4 figures - although ther eis defeinetly some dodgy data in their due to Penn saying counties haven't reported any results and Everyone else saying they have. So I am double counting a bunch of small but heavily Trump states.
CNN mentioned this - they said some heavily pro-Trump counties had said they would be swamped on election day and would only count afterwards
No, I'm talking about counties that are reporting results on the country website but the data is not reflected on the Penn state website.
If there are still 1.4m ballots to count in Pennsylvania* and Biden is only 400000 behind then he only needs about 63% to win, right?
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
470k behind, supposedly 1.2m ballots still to count so he needs just around 70%. I think it should still be doable because the remaining votes are coming from strong Dem areas, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If Trump wins PA then he only needs to take NV in addition to NC and GA to win.
If there are still 1.4m ballots to count in Pennsylvania* and Biden is only 400000 behind then he only needs about 63% to win, right?
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
470k behind, supposedly 1.2m ballots still to count so he needs just around 70%. I think it should still be doable because the remaining votes are coming from strong Dem areas, but I don't think it's guaranteed. If Trump wins PA then he only needs to take NV in addition to NC and GA to win.
More ballots than that I think – PA secretary of state said millions (plural) about an hour ago live on CNN.
Well, that was some day. The technology exploded, a child threatened to hit me, a bottle of water got dropped down a flight of stairs with predictably unfortunate consequences, and my car has a fault.
I’m so pleased to hear nothing exciting happened in the world. I don’t think I could bear it.
Comments
Cases by specimen date
Cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population
R from case data
O'Malley Dillon extremely confident will win election today – will win WI, MI and PA, quite confident about GA.
Say NC stays red.
Didn't mention AZ, NV.
By case data -
By hospital admissions
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8913677/Coronavirus-shielding-England-vulnerable-people-urged-stay-home.html
NV is a funny one, there's been lots of speculation but they are counting it now and best price on the Dems is 1.19.
Doesn't suggest anyone at the count thinks it's going GOP.
But who knows. This could still all come down to PA.
That's crazy odds if you are right.
Here we go...
LEGAL BALLOTS: Votes for Trump
ILLEGAL BALLOTS: Votes for Biden
These illegal fraudulent ballots for Biden need to be set aside as they dispute the legitimacy of the win declared by the President already
Another keeper...
Answer: if you were a decent human being would you want to admit to voting for *that*?
Stop the count in PA, stop the count in NV, AZ, WI, MI.
Okay, Biden wins.
That's why Biden's team is also very confident.
A few states will trend blue over the coming days. I expect Biden will win Michigan and Pennsylvania by ~3pp and 2pp respectively, meaning while polls weren't great, tehy were not terrible.
in NH and Maine they did well. They picked up toss ups in Georgia and NC. They went only slightly off drift in Florida.
Wait a few days, see what the final results say. Biden could have won by 5-6% nationally.
270 is reachable now with AZ, NV, WI, MI.
The first two are a big worry mind.
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=118161
Not good. Where are you seeing this?
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-race-calls-0b1988605f9101f4b799fc63b01e0090?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Politics
One faithless elector is a big danger.
Am I missing something?
This time this is about actual counts. And if it goes to court it will be because Biden is ahead. It's a completely situation.
That sid my analysis now says Biden loses PA by 4 figures - although ther eis defeinetly some dodgy data in their due to Penn saying counties haven't reported any results and Everyone else saying they have. So I am double counting a bunch of small but heavily Trump states.
*Sky just showed 5.6m votes counted with 80% done. I assume I've got this right.
Link has ME2 - Trump leads 52/45
https://www.businessinsider.com/maine-presidential-election-2020-live-vote-counts-results-2020?r=US&IR=T
I’m so pleased to hear nothing exciting happened in the world. I don’t think I could bear it.