...she mused, as she composed her 42,458th post on PB.
It's the smallest differences that make all the, er, difference, though. I may obsessively post too much about inconsequential things, but at least it's not on twitter and the like!
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!
Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,
Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
And if anyone's "mental fragility" is in question, surely it is Trumpsky's - he makes Kanye look like a paragon of normalcy.
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
The problem is that there are loads of Trump gaffes, normally due to incredible ignorance. I doubt many wavering voters are convinced by how gaffe-less Trump is compared to Biden...its why Sleepy Old Basement Joe stuff isn't really working.
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!
Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,
Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
I take your point but Biden's repeated inability to articulate clearly and accurately has to be a major concern going forward. I'm surprised it didn't seriously affect his progress during the primaries, although in fairness he seemed to cope well during both Presidential TV debates.
RCS, whilst you're there - IIRC, YouGov's Electoral Vote projection of Biden 356 vs Trump 182 corresponded closely with your own forecast of a few weeks ago. Are you still of the opinion that this will approximate to the actual result?
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!
Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,
Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
I take your point but Biden's repeated inability to articulate clearly and accurately has to be a major concern going forward. I'm surprised it didn't seriously affect his progress during the primaries, although in fairness he seemed to cope well during both Presidential TV debates.
And he coped fine in the Democratic debates.
The reality is the Biden is exactly one thing: Not Donald Trump.
And a little bit more than 50% of the US population is happy to vote for Not Donald Trump.
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!
Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,
Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
I take your point but Biden's repeated inability to articulate clearly and accurately has to be a major concern going forward. I'm surprised it didn't seriously affect his progress during the primaries, although in fairness he seemed to cope well during both Presidential TV debates.
In the grand scheme of things a mistaken namecheck seems a rather minor offence against Trump's rollcall of catastrophes.
RCS, whilst you're there - IIRC, YouGov's Electoral Vote projection of Biden 356 vs Trump 182 corresponded closely with your own forecast of a few weeks ago. Are you still of the opinion that this will approximate to the actual result?
For anyone considering clicking on this be aware that it's an argument about "identity", which is the kind of thing that never ends well. (Or starts well, or goes well in the middle.)
For anyone considering clicking on this be aware that it's an argument about "identity", which is the kind of thing that never ends well. (Or starts well, or goes well in the middle.)
Oh god, I looked and its Meeks going nuttso over Leavers / Brexit....yet again..like every day for the past 4 years.
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
The problem is that there are loads of Trump gaffes, normally due to incredible ignorance. I doubt many wavering voters are convinced by how gaffe-less Trump is compared to Biden...its why Sleepy Old Basement Joe stuff isn't really working.
Biden's gaffes are akin to those of Rev. Spooner & Mrs Malaprop.
Whereas Trumpsky's are like those of Ivan the Terrible - but minus the leadership quotient.
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!
Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,
Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
I take your point but Biden's repeated inability to articulate clearly and accurately has to be a major concern going forward. I'm surprised it didn't seriously affect his progress during the primaries, although in fairness he seemed to cope well during both Presidential TV debates.
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!
Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,
Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
I take your point but Biden's repeated inability to articulate clearly and accurately has to be a major concern going forward. I'm surprised it didn't seriously affect his progress during the primaries, although in fairness he seemed to cope well during both Presidential TV debates.
Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!
Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,
Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
I take your point but Biden's repeated inability to articulate clearly and accurately has to be a major concern going forward. I'm surprised it didn't seriously affect his progress during the primaries, although in fairness he seemed to cope well during both Presidential TV debates.
THE INTERVIEWER'S NAME WAS GEORGE
Rattled.
C'mon man, he wasn't talking about the interviewer and you know it.
That fecker Jake Berry doesn't even live in the North of England.
He doesn't even have a home in his constituency of Rossendale & Darwen. The address on his nomination papers is an office. He doesn't even live in the North of England.
He is not Jake of the North. How can he possibly be in charge of a Northern Research Group of Tory MPs?
The arrogant little shite lives on Ynys Mon. He has an enormous property empire there. He owns houses in Michael Meacher-like quantities on Anglesey.
The matter was gone into in some thoroughness by the Welsh press when he bought his pox-infected family to Wales at the beginning of lockdown. There is no Berry home in Rossendale & Darwen.
If Drakeford was arresting people like Jake Berry on the border and inserting a large nest of killer hornets into them, he would be getting my full support.
Believe they prefer to be called "murder hornets" because they are really bad ass bugs.
"Victoria Derbyshire has said she would break the rule of six to enable her family to celebrate Christmas.
The BBC presenter said her family of seven knew the risks and would be "sensible" and buy a thermometer gun. She told the Radio Times she felt irresponsible for considering it, but thought many others felt the same way. Derbyshire has a family of four plus her mum, her mum's partner and her husband's dad. It is not clear if the rule of six will apply at Christmas."
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
That space and the capital C triggers me something awful.
It's OK. They've got a Sunder Land County 12 miles down the road.
Go a bit further south into the Eastern Shore of Maryland and Virginia, and the counties have English names with the proper English pronunciation - Worcester, Salisbury, Northumberland. This correct pronunciation continues into the Tidewater area of VA - Norfolk, Suffolk, Portsmouth. And in Tangier and Smith Islands, the locals still have their broad Cornish accents.
Ditto in New England, and also in New Jersey and eastern PA
Two interesting county names in PA near Philadelphia are Berks and Bucks.
Also number of towns, counties & townships named after British royals AND prime ministers.
Plus states; wonder how many Brits AND American's don't know that Virginia (and by extension West Virginia), Maryland, Georgia, North and South Carolina were all named for English / British monarchs? OR that Louisiana was named in honor of the Sun King, Louis XIV of France?
OR that Connecticut was originally the name of a venerable Native American chieftain with a bad stutter (like George VI)?
Isle of Wight County, Virginia! It’s not even an island!! It’s only just coastal.
Can someone please translate this - the Great Pudding part - into American?
Pictured is an Eton Mess (although I've never seen one like that) which is broken up meringue, whipped cream and strawberries, a bit like a smashed up Pavlova. Boris went to Eton (the poshest school in the world; the same school as David Cameron). "You great pudding" is an affectionate insult, though I've not heard it in years.
"A Biden win would save Britain’s Tories from themselves Alternatively, a Trump win would encourage the UK ruling party’s worst instincts ROBERT SHRIMSLEY" (£) [available via Google search]
"Victoria Derbyshire has said she would break the rule of six to enable her family to celebrate Christmas.
The BBC presenter said her family of seven knew the risks and would be "sensible" and buy a thermometer gun. She told the Radio Times she felt irresponsible for considering it, but thought many others felt the same way. Derbyshire has a family of four plus her mum, her mum's partner and her husband's dad. It is not clear if the rule of six will apply at Christmas."
Halloween, Guy Fawkes, Remembrance Day, Diwali, Christmas, New Year/Hogmanay. Some government guidance might be useful, if the superforecasters have a wall calendar amongst their big tellies. I dare say the trendy internationalists at the Guardian and BBC will be on the case as soon as they notice Americans worried about Thanksgiving (towards the end of November iirc).
"A Biden win would save Britain’s Tories from themselves Alternatively, a Trump win would encourage the UK ruling party’s worst instincts ROBERT SHRIMSLEY" (£) [available via Google search]
The risk for him is twofold. The first is that, for all his clever positioning, this proves to be an incompetent government that lets down its supporters. As the disenchantment grows, so does the lure of nativism to mask failure. A Trump defeat will remind Mr Johnson of the limits of that strategy and reinforce mainstream Tories.
The second risk comes from tipping into prejudice and dehumanisation. Brexit has uncorked forces Mr Johnson will struggle to contain even if he wants to. This is how an attempt to respond to concerns over immigration became the Windrush scandal or a plan to ship asylum seekers off to the south Atlantic. There is a line between challenging a liberal consensus and dog-whistle politics. Tories have been punished before for being on its wrong side.
Hawaii has just taken the lead with early vote now 86.8% of 2016 vote.
Texas now second with 82.3%.
OK, Hawaii not an important state but it may be a further pointer to just how high turnout might be. If it's already 86.8% then feels like it could easily end up at say 120% of 2016 vote.
I think Biden will shy away from increasing Supreme Court unless he feels he absolutely has to. It would be a massive thing to do after approx 150 years.
I just wonder if things might find some kind of natural equilibrium. We already know Roberts will often go with the Liberals - it only needs one more Justice to show similar flexibility - and maybe Gorsuch or Barrett will do that.
ie The Justices may think "If we strike lots of key things down he'll create more Justices" - so then they don't in fact strike those things down.
I think Biden will shy away from increasing Supreme Court unless he feels he absolutely has to. It would be a massive thing to do after approx 150 years.
I just wonder if things might find some kind of natural equilibrium. We already know Roberts will often go with the Liberals - it only needs one more Justice to show similar flexibility - and maybe Gorsuch or Barrett will do that..
I think Biden will shy away from increasing Supreme Court unless he feels he absolutely has to. It would be a massive thing to do after approx 150 years.
I just wonder if things might find some kind of natural equilibrium. We already know Roberts will often go with the Liberals - it only needs one more Justice to show similar flexibility - and maybe Gorsuch or Barrett will do that.
ie The Justices may think "If we strike lots of key things down he'll create more Justices" - so then they don't in fact strike those things down.
I think Biden will shy away from increasing Supreme Court unless he feels he absolutely has to. It would be a massive thing to do after approx 150 years.
I just wonder if things might find some kind of natural equilibrium. We already know Roberts will often go with the Liberals - it only needs one more Justice to show similar flexibility - and maybe Gorsuch or Barrett will do that.
ie The Justices may think "If we strike lots of key things down he'll create more Justices" - so then they don't in fact strike those things down.
Spot on.
Biden might well, but the rest is an assumption without evidence. Which I think will be proved broadly wrong.
Kavanaugh’s opinion is a total hack job, echoing Trump’s argument that all votes must be counted on election night. There is precisely zero constitutional ground for such an opinion.
Comments
So in reality the true figure for quite a few states may be significantly understated.
Are you still of the opinion that this will approximate to the actual result?
The reality is the Biden is exactly one thing: Not Donald Trump.
And a little bit more than 50% of the US population is happy to vote for Not Donald Trump.
See:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTBpwOOTKjs&ab_channel=TheDailyShowwithTrevorNoah
And I'd reckon there is a non-trivial chance that Texas flips too - in which case it truly is landslide territory.
Talk about yer profiles in courage!
Whereas Trumpsky's are like those of Ivan the Terrible - but minus the leadership quotient.
C'mon man, he wasn't talking about the interviewer and you know it.
"Killer" is a bee thing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y5euXPUwj4
Emphasis via understatement
"Victoria Derbyshire has said she would break the rule of six to enable her family to celebrate Christmas.
The BBC presenter said her family of seven knew the risks and would be "sensible" and buy a thermometer gun. She told the Radio Times she felt irresponsible for considering it, but thought many others felt the same way. Derbyshire has a family of four plus her mum, her mum's partner and her husband's dad. It is not clear if the rule of six will apply at Christmas."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54685296
"You great pudding" is an affectionate insult, though I've not heard it in years.
Treasury rejects claims it refused extra £150m for free school meals
Education secretary Gavin Williamson did not ask for funds for half-term, say officials
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/26/treasury-rejects-claims-it-refused-extra-150m-for-free-school-meals
Alternatively, a Trump win would encourage the UK ruling party’s worst instincts
ROBERT SHRIMSLEY" (£) [available via Google search]
https://www.ft.com/content/b8c7740d-1cfd-407c-8896-f821d1726952
The second risk comes from tipping into prejudice and dehumanisation. Brexit has uncorked forces Mr Johnson will struggle to contain even if he wants to. This is how an attempt to respond to concerns over immigration became the Windrush scandal or a plan to ship asylum seekers off to the south Atlantic. There is a line between challenging a liberal consensus and dog-whistle politics. Tories have been punished before for being on its wrong side.
Texas now second with 82.3%.
OK, Hawaii not an important state but it may be a further pointer to just how high turnout might be. If it's already 86.8% then feels like it could easily end up at say 120% of 2016 vote.
I just wonder if things might find some kind of natural equilibrium. We already know Roberts will often go with the Liberals - it only needs one more Justice to show similar flexibility - and maybe Gorsuch or Barrett will do that.
ie The Justices may think "If we strike lots of key things down he'll create more Justices" - so then they don't in fact strike those things down.
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-10-26/confirmation-amy-coney-barrett-silver-lining
https://www.boston25news.com/news/local/quincy-baker-puts-sweet-spin-politics-ahead-election-day/7C5EGO73CNCV7NGTOUUSIH26CM/
(Full marks to anyone getting the reference)
Sunday close of play - 59.4m
So 5.3m in one day - no sign of the pace slowing down.
Wait until she starts issuing rulings.
https://twitter.com/mgerrydoyle/status/1320936786168692737
https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1320887412571152387
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1320908204625301505
https://twitter.com/thelonevirologi/status/1320891504861319169
Which I think will be proved broadly wrong.
There is precisely zero constitutional ground for such an opinion.