Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Looks like Hubris.
Thats what I said about the Tories in Leigh and Bolsover.
I was wrong.
Hopefully you will be next Tuesday.
I am not counting any chickens though till its all in the bag.
I am so relaxed that this is over I have the benefit of not worrying Trump will survive the vote
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
We have a 940Mbps connection and this is a brand new Mac, and the site is struggling
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The independents seem to be under represented, 8% is very low. It's a partisan poll as well as it was commissioned by Center for American Greatness, so as always for any poll like this a pinch of salt needed.
It matched Pennsylvania voter registration figures or near enough.
The party breakdown of the latest statewide registration numbers shows nearly 47% are registered Democrats; nearly 39% Republicans; and the remainder fall in the non-affiliated, independent or other party category.
That surely in a nutshell is why the Insider Advantage PA poll is seriously flawed, if the poll has a respondent breakdown of 43% GOP, 45% Dem, 3% Libertarian, 8% Independent. Reps overstated by 4%, Dems understapted by 2%.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Looks like Hubris.
Thats what I said about the Tories in Leigh and Bolsover.
I was wrong.
Hopefully you will be next Tuesday.
I am not counting any chickens though till its all in the bag.
I am so relaxed that this is over I have the benefit of not worrying Trump will survive the vote
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
But The Literary Digest had a massive sample in 1936 and was out by nearly 20% and the much smaller sample from Gallup was better.
LOL Because Gallup invented the science of polling and the Literary Digest did not.
Literary Digest actually spend a BUNDLE on their poll, but it was NOT scientific, leastways not near enough.
They were victims of the previous success (sound familiar) AND believed (wrongly) that having a HUGE number of responses would offset any errors in their sampling. THEY WERE WRONG.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Looks like Hubris.
Thats what I said about the Tories in Leigh and Bolsover.
I was wrong.
Hopefully you will be next Tuesday.
I am not counting any chickens though till its all in the bag.
I am so relaxed that this is over I have the benefit of not worrying Trump will survive the vote
Prosecutions rose under Obama because there was more child trafficking when he was President. Now Trump has clamped down on it, there's no need for prosecutions.
1. Biden's national vote share will end up 5-7 ahead of Trump. Any variation on that is more likely to be upside for Biden than downside and I will take a view that the damage will be done due to non turn out for the republicans which could absolutely throw the GOP off the cliff.
2. Texas will still go GOP despite the talk
3. The value on Georgia being the state won by the smallest margin is worth considering
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
It's a shame the site doesn't pop up latest posts automatically in the manner of the Guardian Live blogs for example. I assume that's expensive to run and the current subscription fees (!) don't run to it.
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
Me too, on the iPad. But the PC is fine.
It’s fine on both my Mac laptops and one of them is very old. It appears to be a handheld device-only issue.
1. Biden's national vote share will end up 5-7 ahead of Trump. Any variation on that is more likely to be upside for Biden than downside and I will take a view that the damage will be done due to non turn out for the republicans which could absolutely throw the GOP off the cliff.
2. Texas will still go GOP despite the talk
3. The value on Georgia being the state won by the smallest margin is worth considering
"The commanding role of Progressive Activists on social media: Progressive Activists have strong views and take stances that sometimes put them at odds with the rest of society. They are culturally influential, and are six times more likely to post about politics on twitter and other social media platforms than any other group."
The chart on page 11 also shows how much that tiny group dominates social media.
Ironically according to page 13 they are also the most likely to agree with the statement that they feel exhausted by the division in politics...
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
Me too, on the iPad. But the PC is fine.
It’s fine on both my Mac laptops and one of them is very old. It appears to be a handheld device-only issue.
Seems to be a theme there. I had assumed it might have been the (woeful) bandwidth or the age of the iPad when I was having issues in Cornwall but there seems to be an issue with mobile devices.
Interesting criticism...tell us what's in your blind trust, because there might be a conflict of interest...but if have it made public, Rishi will then know the current state of it and be open to allegations of...conflicts of interest.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
Ah, I'm sorry. I didn't know which State. I guess there is a special dispensation allowing people in MD to vote democrat.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
Now @stodge why would I jump in and criticise the Democrat polls ?
My fundamental view is that there are likely to be major flaws in the polls for a variety of reasons. If you look at what is happening on the ground, it is clear that Republican enthusiasm is up as well as Democrat.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
Can you post your map? (You can make one on RCP or 270 To Win)
The 270 to win one is exportable. This is my one as per today, subject to adjustment:
1. Biden's national vote share will end up 5-7 ahead of Trump. Any variation on that is more likely to be upside for Biden than downside and I will take a view that the damage will be done due to non turn out for the republicans which could absolutely throw the GOP off the cliff.
2. Texas will still go GOP despite the talk
3. The value on Georgia being the state won by the smallest margin is worth considering
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
That space and the capital C triggers me something awful.
"Biden is doing fewer and smaller events — and even peering past the election toward governing. "
This is the exact same as Clinton. Days before the vote, talk turning to governing and who will be in her cabinet and all that malarky.
No. No. No. No. Not again!!!!!
Right, keep your eyes on the prize, pedal to the medal etc etc. That said Biden was extremely cautious and used the phrase “it ain’t over until the bell rings” on the telly this morning.
"The commanding role of Progressive Activists on social media: Progressive Activists have strong views and take stances that sometimes put them at odds with the rest of society. They are culturally influential, and are six times more likely to post about politics on twitter and other social media platforms than any other group."
The chart on page 11 also shows how much that tiny group dominates social media.
Ironically according to page 13 they are also the most likely to agree with the statement that they feel exhausted by the division in politics...
I feel like there's a disconnect here.
Could it be the division between themselves and everyone else not agreeing with them?
The BBC could do with reading this analysis; they routinely generate news stories off the back of what this 13% kick-up a Twitter storm about.
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
On my long drive around the States I don’t recall seeing any castles?
"The commanding role of Progressive Activists on social media: Progressive Activists have strong views and take stances that sometimes put them at odds with the rest of society. They are culturally influential, and are six times more likely to post about politics on twitter and other social media platforms than any other group."
The chart on page 11 also shows how much that tiny group dominates social media.
Ironically according to page 13 they are also the most likely to agree with the statement that they feel exhausted by the division in politics...
I feel like there's a disconnect here.
Wins for Ardern and (let’s pray!) Biden will be anathema to hardcore culture warriors like Matt Goodwin.
The Rasmussen earlier showing Trump with a 1 point lead is garbage as this is the same pollster who thinks 46% of blacks approve of Trump and currently has the only national approval poll in the USA showing him with a net plus approval rating .
The YouGov post debate poll looks a bit iffy especially as it gives the Dems a 13 point lead in the generic congressional ballot . Great though it is to see a 12 point lead for Biden it looks a bit of an outlier .
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
Can you post your map? (You can make one on RCP or 270 To Win)
The 270 to win one is exportable. This is my one as per today, subject to adjustment:
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
Did you see the Maryland poll mentioned downthred?
Said that Dems & Reps were solid behind their nominees BUT Independents were 2.1 for Biden
Also that while there is a gender gap, hardly any difference between under 50s and over 50s.
Most interesting thing was strong numbers for your Republican Governor Larry Hogan. NOT that he's approved by 3/4 of likely voters (he's not on ballot this year) BUT instead that his approval is HIGHER among Democratas (and Blacks) than among Republicans (and Whites).
Of course he's made a point of rhetorically kicking Trumpsky's ass at every reasonable opportunity. Smart guy thing to do, leastways within the great Free State!
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
On my long drive around the States I don’t recall seeing any castles?
FPT - on a number of issues, like benefits/free school meals, and the balance of opinion over increasing tax/reducing spending, it feels to me like the sands of British politics are shifting in a way they simply weren't in 2014-15.
These things do tend to go in cycles. My gut tells me that the next GE *should* be Labour's to lose. And, indeed, after 14 years of Conservatives in Government that might even be healthy for our democracy (and even may allow a late save for the Union), although I'd never vote Labour - at the end of the day I'm not a social democrat, yet alone a socialist.
However, Labour shouldn't and won't be gifted it on a plate. And the cultural divisions are more entrenched.
At present, I cannot tell if economics + competence alone will be enough for Labour to win - my instinct is that they will have to neutralise the cultural concerns people have over them, particularly on patriotism/migration and crime, at the very least to secure enough English marginals to win.
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
On my long drive around the States I don’t recall seeing any castles?
And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Some of us live in Essex, it is close to the sea and London and has some beautiful countryside including where Alistair Meeks lives and Epping is one of the best places to live in the UK according to the Sunday Times
My great aunt used to live near Harrogate. Wonderful town. Actually, she lived just outside Ripon and bought my grandmother a cottage in Littlethorpe. Only visited one summer (1972 - I remember Valerie Borzov winning the 100m), but I remember having a great time and I particularly enjoyed the visits to Harrogate, in particular Farrah's Harrogate Toffee
Went there for business last year, and was really impressed. Nearby Knaresborough (sp?) looked lovely from the train too.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
Did you see the Maryland poll mentioned downthred?
Said that Dems & Reps were solid behind their nominees BUT Independents were 2.1 for Biden
Also that while there is a gender gap, hardly any difference between under 50s and over 50s.
Most interesting thing was strong numbers for your Republican Governor Larry Hogan. NOT that he's approved by 3/4 of likely voters (he's not on ballot this year) BUT instead that his approval is HIGHER among Democratas (and Blacks) than among Republicans (and Whites).
Of course he's made a point of rhetorically kicking Trumpsky's ass at every reasonable opportunity. Smart guy thing to do, leastways within the great Free State!
I think that is down to two things: 1. MD was drowning in the sheer number of different taxes on business prior to his arrival, and the Dems were proposing even more, including the infamous 'rain' tax. Businesses were leaving the state. He put an end to that. 2. He has been very effective on COVID, and has stood up to Trump on that. I can see how that would turn off the Trumpster faithful, while appealing to Dems.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
Can you post your map? (You can make one on RCP or 270 To Win)
The 270 to win one is exportable. This is my one as per today, subject to adjustment:
FPT - on a number of issues, like benefits/free school meals, and the balance of opinion over increasing tax/reducing spending, it feels to me like the sands of British politics are shifting in a way they simply weren't in 2014-15.
These things do tend to go in cycles. My gut tells me that the next GE *should* be Labour's to lose. And, indeed, after 14 years of Conservatives in Government that might even be healthy for our democracy (and even may allow a late save for the Union), although I'd never vote Labour - at the end of the day I'm not a social democrat, yet alone a socialist.
However, Labour shouldn't and won't be gifted it on a plate. And the cultural divisions are more entrenched.
At present, I cannot tell if economics + competence alone will be enough for Labour to win - my instinct is that they will have to neutralise the cultural concerns people have over them, particularly on patriotism/migration and crime, at the very least to secure enough English marginals to win.
Good post.
Labour need to completely avoid any culture war stuff - that needs to be left to the obsessives on the hard right. If they can do that, they have a chance, if they get dragged back into it, no chance.
FPT - on a number of issues, like benefits/free school meals, and the balance of opinion over increasing tax/reducing spending, it feels to me like the sands of British politics are shifting in a way they simply weren't in 2014-15.
These things do tend to go in cycles. My gut tells me that the next GE *should* be Labour's to lose. And, indeed, after 14 years of Conservatives in Government that might even be healthy for our democracy (and even may allow a late save for the Union), although I'd never vote Labour - at the end of the day I'm not a social democrat, yet alone a socialist.
However, Labour shouldn't and won't be gifted it on a plate. And the cultural divisions are more entrenched.
At present, I cannot tell if economics + competence alone will be enough for Labour to win - my instinct is that they will have to neutralise the cultural concerns people have over them, particularly on patriotism/migration and crime, at the very least to secure enough English marginals to win.
The electoral maths make it very difficult for them to win without the SNP, and they now seem to be making a mess of Wales too. If Brexit goes well it will be another Tory majority, otherwise a weird hung parliament where whilst Starmer might make PM he will not have much he can do.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
I thought you lived in Atlanta Tim?
Wrong Tim. That's TimB. Time for TimB to re-post his post on the differences between the two Tims.
I really wish there was a comprehensive source of 2016 Congressional District polling. The stuff I am seeing absolutely suggest that 2020 is apocalypse territory but I'm doing this 1 Wikipedia page at a time and it is exhausting.
However, now that I've looked. Let's talk Ohio-12.
Won by the Republicans by a narrow 34 points in 2016 in a state Trump won by 8 (the GOP won the Congressional elections by 16)
In 2018 the GOP won the district by 4 and the GOP won the star by 5.
District Polling in 2018 undershot the GOP by 4 points in all 3 polls.
What's does the polling say in 2020? It says almost exactly the same as the polling (not the result) in 2018.
The suggests a worse position than the state polling for the GOP.
FPT - on a number of issues, like benefits/free school meals, and the balance of opinion over increasing tax/reducing spending, it feels to me like the sands of British politics are shifting in a way they simply weren't in 2014-15.
These things do tend to go in cycles. My gut tells me that the next GE *should* be Labour's to lose. And, indeed, after 14 years of Conservatives in Government that might even be healthy for our democracy (and even may allow a late save for the Union), although I'd never vote Labour - at the end of the day I'm not a social democrat, yet alone a socialist.
However, Labour shouldn't and won't be gifted it on a plate. And the cultural divisions are more entrenched.
At present, I cannot tell if economics + competence alone will be enough for Labour to win - my instinct is that they will have to neutralise the cultural concerns people have over them, particularly on patriotism/migration and crime, at the very least to secure enough English marginals to win.
Good post.
Labour need to completely avoid any culture war stuff - that needs to be left to the obsessives on the hard right. If they can do that, they have a chance, if they get dragged back into it, no chance.
I agree with the sentiment, but your post would be more convincing if you mentioned the obsessives on the hard left too.
My litmus test for self-awareness of Labour/left-wing posters on this is their ability to detect the fact that BLM marxist activists/left-wing CRT academics who go on about tearing down statues, "whiteness" being a problem, and trashing British history to take it back year zero, are hindering their cause.
"Biden is doing fewer and smaller events — and even peering past the election toward governing. "
This is the exact same as Clinton. Days before the vote, talk turning to governing and who will be in her cabinet and all that malarky.
No. No. No. No. Not again!!!!!
This is NOT "exactly the same as Clinton" in the sense that, while we know that Hillary actually DID these things, what we have here is press speculation.
One other difference is that Clinton 2016 campaign was run into the ground (similar to Clinton 2008) by pack of lunkheads - remember Robby Mook, surely a mook by name as well as by nature.
Certainly we DO know that the folks running Biden campaign may not be perfect, but the are NOT idiots.
The Rasmussen earlier showing Trump with a 1 point lead is garbage as this is the same pollster who thinks 46% of blacks approve of Trump and currently has the only national approval poll in the USA showing him with a net plus approval rating .
The YouGov post debate poll looks a bit iffy especially as it gives the Dems a 13 point lead in the generic congressional ballot . Great though it is to see a 12 point lead for Biden it looks a bit of an outlier .
Rasmussen's final poll for the 2018 midterms also gave the GOP a !% lead and was out by 9.4%! Perhaps they just republished the same poll with a different heading.
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
That space and the capital C triggers me something awful.
It's OK. They've got a Sunder Land County 12 miles down the road.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
I thought you lived in Atlanta Tim?
Wrong Tim. That's TimB. Time for TimB to re-post his post on the differences between the two Tims.
Remember that TimB comes before TimT alphabetically, same as Georgia comes before Maryland.
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
That space and the capital C triggers me something awful.
It's OK. They've got a Sunder Land County 12 miles down the road.
Go a bit further south into the Eastern Shore of Maryland and Virginia, and the counties have English names with the proper English pronunciation - Worcester, Salisbury, Northumberland. This correct pronunciation continues into the Tidewater area of VA - Norfolk, Suffolk, Portsmouth. And in Tangier and Smith Islands, the locals still have their broad Cornish accents.
But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
I thought you lived in Atlanta Tim?
Wrong Tim. That's TimB. Time for TimB to re-post his post on the differences between the two Tims.
Remember that TimB comes before TimT alphabetically, same as Georgia comes before Maryland.
But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.
NYTimes blog
Very strange. Surely a tactical mistake? Are they the keys for a good Senate majority perhaps?
Nate Silver does seem slightly rattled by the possibility of the likes of Rasmussun and Trafalgar being right again.
I've got some sympathy for him. For all his modelling, he is totally reliant on polls.
That is the key problem - if the polls are garbage, then so will be the conclusion.
Despite all the confidence on here about the polls being right, quite frankly who would be prepared to bet their house on it (apart from @kinabalu) ?
Most people wouldn't bet their house on anything except the sun rising tomorrow at these odds, given how much the pain of losing the house outweighs the pleasure of having an extra half house. But I have, unusually for me, enough staked to spoil my whole day if I lose it. I think others have too.
But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.
NYTimes blog
Very strange. Surely a tactical mistake?
Not when the other guy is dominating the airwaves shooting himself in the foot.
More seriously, there is no-one left to convince. It is just a matter of getting out the vote, and it is Trump who is energizing both sides, not Biden. As others have said, Biden's best bet is not to become the story.
Nate Silver does seem slightly rattled by the possibility of the likes of Rasmussun and Trafalgar being right again.
I've got some sympathy for him. For all his modelling, he is totally reliant on polls.
That is the key problem - if the polls are garbage, then so will be the conclusion.
Despite all the confidence on here about the polls being right, quite frankly who would be prepared to bet their house on it (apart from @kinabalu) ?
Most people wouldn't bet their house on anything except the sun rising tomorrow at these odds, given how much the pain of losing the house outweighs the pleasure of having an extra half house. But I have, unusually for me, enough staked to spoil my whole day if I lose it. I think others have too.
Ill either be able to retire a month early or late!
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
I thought you lived in Atlanta Tim?
Wrong Tim. That's TimB. Time for TimB to re-post his post on the differences between the two Tims.
Remember that TimB comes before TimT alphabetically, same as Georgia comes before Maryland.
And Atlanta comes before Damascus.
I have a weakness for faux mnemonics, such as Kier Is Exactly Right, bronze and zinc both have a z in them, and E is for eggcup (for westerly cardinal marks).
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Why not have two lines? They could have one for people who want to vote Democrat and the other for those whose votes will actually be counted.
It would save a lot of bother.
LOL Peter. I think they only bother to weigh the votes in MD
I thought you lived in Atlanta Tim?
Wrong Tim. That's TimB. Time for TimB to re-post his post on the differences between the two Tims.
Remember that TimB comes before TimT alphabetically, same as Georgia comes before Maryland.
And Atlanta comes before Damascus.
Tell that to Saul aka Peter (Acts 9:3–9) not sure what the Book of Mormon has to say about it.
A member of the South East Liberal Democrats and a reader of Lockdown Sceptics was outraged yesterday when he received an invitation to the SE Region Conference and AGM on November 21st. This was his reply
"I am surprised that these MPs listed below have the bare-faced effrontery to show their faces in front of members after they have unilaterally committed our supposedly LIBERAL party to demanding that the government impose full-scale martial law on the British people."
That's slightly odd. There was some social media stuff posted on here earlier saying the Oxford lot had got a one year immunity out of the vaccine.
That was their best estimate (ie guess). The falloff in antibodies is pretty characteristic of any infection, I believe ? Doesn’t mean that immunity disappears.
The Rasmussen earlier showing Trump with a 1 point lead is garbage as this is the same pollster who thinks 46% of blacks approve of Trump and currently has the only national approval poll in the USA showing him with a net plus approval rating .
The YouGov post debate poll looks a bit iffy especially as it gives the Dems a 13 point lead in the generic congressional ballot . Great though it is to see a 12 point lead for Biden it looks a bit of an outlier .
There are three sorts of polling companies in the US. Those associated with the Republicans, those associated with the Democrats, and the majority who fall into neither camp. The Republican pollsters have house effects that are now so clearly out of line with the rest that you have to suspect deliberate manipulation. There have been enough exposes of Rasmussen and Trafalgar, in so far as their limited transparency allows, to call their methods into question.
Another route to polling manipulation does not require manipulated methodologies, just a willingness of the (otherwise reputable) polling company to take the cash and remain silent if necessary. It's to commission lots of polls with relatively small samples and thus increased random effect so that one or two are likely to throw out a result in the direction you want, and then publish only the results that you would like the public to see. Whether a poll is published is down to the client. I suspect that the Lib Dems tried to pull this trick in 2019, when they published a handful of constituency polls with small samples showing them apparently in the frame, but failed to publish anything from a much greater number of constituencies where they were also competing hard. For all we know, polls were commissioned by the Lib Dems in other constituencies that never saw the light of day.
Thus it may be with that Insider Advantage poll of Pennysylvania. Sample size just 400, margin of error + or - 5%. When you start to examine the background of the organisation they commissioned it, and their undoubted deep pockets, you wonder how many other small polls they've commissioned only to sit on the results. Looking at all the rubbish on the website of the Centre of American Greatness, why should they be judged incapable of selective publication of commissioned polls?
re: Newcastle, perhaps worth mentioning that Joe Biden is a long-time resident, former councilman AND current registered voter in New Castle County, Delaware.
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
That space and the capital C triggers me something awful.
It's OK. They've got a Sunder Land County 12 miles down the road.
Go a bit further south into the Eastern Shore of Maryland and Virginia, and the counties have English names with the proper English pronunciation - Worcester, Salisbury, Northumberland. This correct pronunciation continues into the Tidewater area of VA - Norfolk, Suffolk, Portsmouth. And in Tangier and Smith Islands, the locals still have their broad Cornish accents.
Ditto in New England, and also in New Jersey and eastern PA
Two interesting county names in PA near Philadelphia are Berks and Bucks.
Also number of towns, counties & townships named after British royals AND prime ministers.
Plus states; wonder how many Brits AND American's don't know that Virginia (and by extension West Virginia), Maryland, Georgia, North and South Carolina were all named for English / British monarchs? OR that Louisiana was named in honor of the Sun King, Louis XIV of France?
OR that Connecticut was originally the name of a venerable Native American chieftain with a bad stutter (like George VI)?
But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.
NYTimes blog
Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.
Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll and he is doing the same now
A member of the South East Liberal Democrats and a reader of Lockdown Sceptics was outraged yesterday when he received an invitation to the SE Region Conference and AGM on November 21st. This was his reply
"I am surprised that these MPs listed below have the bare-faced effrontery to show their faces in front of members after they have unilaterally committed our supposedly LIBERAL party to demanding that the government impose full-scale martial law on the British people."
But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.
NYTimes blog
Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.
Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll.
Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
Perhaps a wee bit? Including do NOT believe everything you read in the media! OR on the web!!
But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.
NYTimes blog
Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.
Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll.
Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
Is there any actual evidence that Clinton's failure to visit Wisconsin made any difference to the result?
That's slightly odd. There was some social media stuff posted on here earlier saying the Oxford lot had got a one year immunity out of the vaccine.
It also doesn't take into account T and B cell immunity, which could be very long lasting. There's no way of knowing without a mass vaccination programme and the passage of a significant amount of time.
Comments
It is the end and good riddance
Thanks
Couldn’t reply directly because the site is suffering loading errors on the iPhone again
It would save a lot of bother.
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1320802376144617477?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320785289208619008?s=20
They were victims of the previous success (sound familiar) AND believed (wrongly) that having a HUGE number of responses would offset any errors in their sampling. THEY WERE WRONG.
Prosecutions rose under Obama because there was more child trafficking when he was President. Now Trump has clamped down on it, there's no need for prosecutions.
It's a shame the site doesn't pop up latest posts automatically in the manner of the Guardian Live blogs for example. I assume that's expensive to run and the current subscription fees (!) don't run to it.
"The commanding role of Progressive Activists on social media:
Progressive Activists have strong views and take stances that
sometimes put them at odds with the rest of society. They are culturally
influential, and are six times more likely to post about politics on twitter
and other social media platforms than any other group."
The chart on page 11 also shows how much that tiny group dominates social media.
Ironically according to page 13 they are also the most likely to agree with the statement that they feel exhausted by the division in politics...
I feel like there's a disconnect here.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/26/biden-and-trump-role-reversal-432347
But, this got me well worried:
"Biden is doing fewer and smaller events — and even peering past the election toward governing. "
This is the exact same as Clinton. Days before the vote, talk turning to governing and who will be in her cabinet and all that malarky.
No. No. No. No. Not again!!!!!
Name originated after English seized area from the Dutch and Duke of York (future King James II) changed name of government center from New Amstel to New Castle in 1660s.
Is anyone having issues on Android devices?
Here at least.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8879877/Millionaire-Rishi-Sunak-faces-demands-reveal-contents-blind-trust-financial-interests.html
My fundamental view is that there are likely to be major flaws in the polls for a variety of reasons. If you look at what is happening on the ground, it is clear that Republican enthusiasm is up as well as Democrat.
Despite all the confidence on here about the polls being right, quite frankly who would be prepared to bet their house on it (apart from @kinabalu) ?
Trump is over and the world breathes a sigh of relief
Trust me
The BBC could do with reading this analysis; they routinely generate news stories off the back of what this 13% kick-up a Twitter storm about.
The YouGov post debate poll looks a bit iffy especially as it gives the Dems a 13 point lead in the generic congressional ballot . Great though it is to see a 12 point lead for Biden it looks a bit of an outlier .
He knows how to win states over.
Said that Dems & Reps were solid behind their nominees BUT Independents were 2.1 for Biden
Also that while there is a gender gap, hardly any difference between under 50s and over 50s.
Most interesting thing was strong numbers for your Republican Governor Larry Hogan. NOT that he's approved by 3/4 of likely voters (he's not on ballot this year) BUT instead that his approval is HIGHER among Democratas (and Blacks) than among Republicans (and Whites).
Of course he's made a point of rhetorically kicking Trumpsky's ass at every reasonable opportunity. Smart guy thing to do, leastways within the great Free State!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castillo_de_San_Marcos
These things do tend to go in cycles. My gut tells me that the next GE *should* be Labour's to lose. And, indeed, after 14 years of Conservatives in Government that might even be healthy for our democracy (and even may allow a late save for the Union), although I'd never vote Labour - at the end of the day I'm not a social democrat, yet alone a socialist.
However, Labour shouldn't and won't be gifted it on a plate. And the cultural divisions are more entrenched.
At present, I cannot tell if economics + competence alone will be enough for Labour to win - my instinct is that they will have to neutralise the cultural concerns people have over them, particularly on patriotism/migration and crime, at the very least to secure enough English marginals to win.
Well, the tablet is ours jointly, and the phone belongs to my employer, but you know what I mean.
1. MD was drowning in the sheer number of different taxes on business prior to his arrival, and the Dems were proposing even more, including the infamous 'rain' tax. Businesses were leaving the state. He put an end to that.
2. He has been very effective on COVID, and has stood up to Trump on that. I can see how that would turn off the Trumpster faithful, while appealing to Dems.
Labour need to completely avoid any culture war stuff - that needs to be left to the obsessives on the hard right. If they can do that, they have a chance, if they get dragged back into it, no chance.
However, now that I've looked. Let's talk Ohio-12.
Won by the Republicans by a narrow 34 points in 2016 in a state Trump won by 8 (the GOP won the Congressional elections by 16)
In 2018 the GOP won the district by 4 and the GOP won the star by 5.
District Polling in 2018 undershot the GOP by 4 points in all 3 polls.
What's does the polling say in 2020? It says almost exactly the same as the polling (not the result) in 2018.
The suggests a worse position than the state polling for the GOP.
My litmus test for self-awareness of Labour/left-wing posters on this is their ability to detect the fact that BLM marxist activists/left-wing CRT academics who go on about tearing down statues, "whiteness" being a problem, and trashing British history to take it back year zero, are hindering their cause.
One other difference is that Clinton 2016 campaign was run into the ground (similar to Clinton 2008) by pack of lunkheads - remember Robby Mook, surely a mook by name as well as by nature.
Certainly we DO know that the folks running Biden campaign may not be perfect, but the are NOT idiots.
Trump is over
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/25/politics/election-2020-trump-carter-scenario/index.html
NYTimes blog
More seriously, there is no-one left to convince. It is just a matter of getting out the vote, and it is Trump who is energizing both sides, not Biden. As others have said, Biden's best bet is not to become the story.
"I am surprised that these MPs listed below have the bare-faced effrontery to show their faces in front of members after they have unilaterally committed our supposedly LIBERAL party to demanding that the government impose full-scale martial law on the British people."
https://lockdownsceptics.org/
Rushing around pretending to be Trump in the last few days isn’t going to help his cause any.
The falloff in antibodies is pretty characteristic of any infection, I believe ? Doesn’t mean that immunity disappears.
Another route to polling manipulation does not require manipulated methodologies, just a willingness of the (otherwise reputable) polling company to take the cash and remain silent if necessary. It's to commission lots of polls with relatively small samples and thus increased random effect so that one or two are likely to throw out a result in the direction you want, and then publish only the results that you would like the public to see. Whether a poll is published is down to the client. I suspect that the Lib Dems tried to pull this trick in 2019, when they published a handful of constituency polls with small samples showing them apparently in the frame, but failed to publish anything from a much greater number of constituencies where they were also competing hard. For all we know, polls were commissioned by the Lib Dems in other constituencies that never saw the light of day.
Thus it may be with that Insider Advantage poll of Pennysylvania. Sample size just 400, margin of error + or - 5%. When you start to examine the background of the organisation they commissioned it, and their undoubted deep pockets, you wonder how many other small polls they've commissioned only to sit on the results. Looking at all the rubbish on the website of the Centre of American Greatness, why should they be judged incapable of selective publication of commissioned polls?
https://amgreatness.com/
Two interesting county names in PA near Philadelphia are Berks and Bucks.
Also number of towns, counties & townships named after British royals AND prime ministers.
Plus states; wonder how many Brits AND American's don't know that Virginia (and by extension West Virginia), Maryland, Georgia, North and South Carolina were all named for English / British monarchs? OR that Louisiana was named in honor of the Sun King, Louis XIV of France?
OR that Connecticut was originally the name of a venerable Native American chieftain with a bad stutter (like George VI)?
Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll and he is doing the same now
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320810565523001344?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320770458527158272?s=20
Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?