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The latest YouGov UC elections model has Biden 356 ECVs Trump 182 – politicalbetting.com
The latest YouGov UC elections model has Biden 356 ECVs Trump 182 – politicalbetting.com
Here are the latest results from our 2020 presidential election model:ELECTORAL COLLEGEBiden 356 / Trump 182POPULAR VOTEBiden 53.1% / Trump 44.6%Check out the interactive map for state-level results and more at https://t.co/5xQeQUaklG #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/ku80UrpLYu
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Meanwhile - we can still get 1.48 on Biden to win.
Happy days.
Nottingham numbers have been falling for days and days. High point was 8th October for God's sake.
Surrounding areas - numbers have plateaued.
Ludicrous.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1320789837335715840?s=19
If you have 1000 cases of which 990 are Uni students that is less concerning than having 700 cases of which 200 are elderly.
A common trend seems to be that numbers are going down from the student peak but as it's spreading in the community the numbers in the older profiles are going up.
YouGov have Biden 8.5% ahead in the popular vote, and 538 have an average Democratic lead of 9.2%. Votes cast already are not far short of half the total 2016 votes cast.
For Trump to win now requires a systematic polling failure several times the scale of what occured in 2016 in addition to a late swing several times the scale of what occured in 2016.
What is a more interesting and longer odds bet on Biden, than just betting on Biden? A state? ECV? Vote share? Anybody?
You have to go out and find where it is before people in the community are even aware it is there.
Why have the "it doesn't matter if cases are rising, where are the hospitalisations?" crowd gone quiet/changed their tune?
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1320794153060651009?s=20
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1320803822835535878?s=20
Trump up by 3%
https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/522807-60-minutes-draws-whooping-17-million-viewers
It's almost as if chasing a single metric for this is a bad idea.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
There's also a Newcastle in Australia.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/522718-biden-stretches-lead-over-trump-in-mich-wis-and-penn-poll
International travel = meaningless
Public transport closure = nearly meaningless
Closing workplaces = meaningful
Closing schools = significantly meaningful
No causal links claimed, but a few narratives come to mind, such as
- prolonged indoor exposure is utterly key
- the psychological effect of work and/or schools closing makes people more conscious of distancing and hygiene
- being stuck on a plane for a few hours might not be a death sentence
Great find, thanks for posting it.
It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow
Yes, the plane would take off
The dress is blue and black, not gold
You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door
The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/10/04/yougov-model-state-2016-election
Talented as Rishi is, he may not be the right person to front painful book-balancing, should that become necessary.
EDIT: Also... my god that face on Trump. It looks like someone melted Kermit.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
And if it turns out that we can solve the Covid problem by closing schools, what the hell do we do?
(Disclaimer: I am a teacher, currently resting, as actors put it. And quite relieved about that...)
Lockdown madness?
Possible, of course, but outside some Hollywood conspracy movie the chances of a Trump victory are evaporating with every early vote cast.
EDIT: actually, I spent a very pleasant Christmas in Southend.
“On Sunak, I'm also not sure that it's fair to criticise him for working at the fund that pointed out the RBS/ABN deal was shit on stick. If anything had the politicians listened RBS may not have emptied out its cash reserved on buying a negative value bank.“
This is so far from the actual facts of what went on as to be a complete fairy story. The true facts around that deal and TCI’s role in it has not been told. Believe me, I know.
And if it did come out .... well we would not be talking about TCI’s brilliance or, indeed, the brilliance of anyone working there.
Best I ever had was a Daystar Indian Cultural Center in Discovery Park, Seattle. One of the guys cooking the salmon was the late Bernie Whitebear, who was a genuine legend in his own time in these parts.
". . . Whitebear became deeply involved in a movement for Seattle Indians to acquire a share of the land to be declared surplus at Fort Lawton, as the government downsized this army post. The group was influenced by the Indians of All Tribes (IAT), a mostly student group of activists who had occupied Alcatraz Island, site of a federal prison, in San Francisco Bay. Initially, the Seattle movement called themselves Kinatechitapi, Blackfoot for "All Indians". Their first efforts to open discussions with the City of Seattle in advance of the turnover of the land failed. . . .
On March 8, 1970, Whitebear was among the leaders of about 100 "Native Americans and sympathizers" who confronted military police in riot gear at the fort. The MPs ejected them from the fort, but they were able to establish an encampment outside the fort. Organizing as the United Indians of All Tribes Foundation (UIATF), they used tactics ranging from politicking to occupation of land to celebrity appearances. Some of the key politicking came at the federal level: UIATF, like the City, filed to directly acquire land that the federal government was releasing, and the federal government ultimately insisted that the two come up with a joint plan. Negotiations, confrontation and even a Congressional intervention combined in November 1971 to give them a 99-year lease on 20 acres (81,000 m²) in what would become Seattle's Discovery Park, with options for renewal without renegotiation. In addition, the City gave $600,000 to the American Indian Women' Service League for a social services center."
Twenty acres and $600k sound mighty reasonable, considering that ALL of Washington State - and the United States was at best bought WAY cheap and at worst (and usual) simply stolen from Native Americans.
Of course if you pooh-pooh that, then consider this: by treaties between United States and local Indian tribes in 1850s, Native Americans were granted their customary fishing rights "in perpetuity". Which of course were curtailed, restricted, ignored over the next century - rights worth MILLIONS of dollars. Wasn't until 1970s that this gross injustice (to the Indians) and disgrace (to the United States) was rectified by federal court (Boldt decision).
Admittedly a bit removed from Brexit!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/epping-essex-best-places-to-live-in-the-uk-2020-896qpw3r0
1. Biden's national vote share will end up 5-7 ahead of Trump. Any variation on that is more likely to be upside for Biden than downside and I will take a view that the damage will be done due to non turn out for the republicans which could absolutely throw the GOP off the cliff.
2. Texas will still go GOP despite the talk
3. The value on Georgia being the state won by the smallest margin is worth considering
Now this is my part of the world.
Why everyone now wants to buy a house in Yorkshire
It’s officially a property hotspot, but what are buyers hoping to find and how much will it cost them?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-everyone-now-wants-to-buy-a-house-in-yorkshire-llc35kjhr
Harrogate named best place in UK to work from home
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/harrogate-named-best-place-in-uk-to-work-from-home-wp3hnbkcv
If you lift international travel restrictions when the virus is rampant abroad, it's on thing. If you lift them when it's subdued, it's another.
Also, volume of international travel in most places is down in most places irrespective of bans.
It did flat line at ≈ 162 mark for several days before the 18th.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/25/trump-biden-electoral-map-magic-wall-john-king-ip-vpx.cnn
Anyone currently betting on Trump is doing so predominantly for either or both of nostalgia (2016) or personal preference.
Also: Devon is a miserable shithole where it rains 367 days a year, dial-up broadband is available by special arrangement only in a few favoured areas and property prices are plummeting faster than a paralysed falcon.
1. Florida
2. North Carolina
3. Pennsylvania
4. Arizona
5. Georgia
In other words: those are ALL states Trump won last time.
The Democrats top 5 spending is in:
1. Florida
2. Pennsylvania
3. North Carolina
4. Michigan
5. Arizona
Furthermore, the amount of funds available now to the two camps is:
$162m for Biden vs $43.6m for Trump
plus
$311m Democrat Committees vs $223m Republicans.