And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Some of us live in Essex, it is close to the sea and London and has some beautiful countryside including where Alistair Meeks lives and Epping is one of the best places to live in the UK according to the Sunday Times
My great aunt used to live near Harrogate. Wonderful town.
From where my grandmother hailed. So I'm 1/4 Yorkshire lass. It is, indeed, a wonderful town. I love Yorkshire and the Lakes. I'm very fond of Lancaster and many northern cities are fabulous: Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle are great places if you're after some fun without breaking the bank.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
Yeah, hugely biased based on nothing but the overwhelming preponderance of the betting and polling markets and not a single word about Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar.
What is a more interesting and longer odds bet on Biden, than just betting on Biden? A state? ECV? Vote share? Anybody?
I have a fiver on Biden in Montana because I have money to burn.
I'm still trying to work out why I backed the Dems in Arkanas.
Lockdown madness?
Probably something I posted, when there was a poll showing Biden down by just 2.
Yeah, hugely biased based on nothing but the overwhelming preponderance of the betting and polling markets and not a single word about Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar.
What is a more interesting and longer odds bet on Biden, than just betting on Biden? A state? ECV? Vote share? Anybody?
I have a fiver on Biden in Montana because I have money to burn.
I'm still trying to work out why I backed the Dems in Arkansas.
Lockdown madness?
You got the state initials mixed up and meant to back the Dems in Alaska?
And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Well, I’ve lived in Essex, the NE and Lancashire and worked in and around Manchester and South Essex, and there are bad bits of all of them and some really good parts as well. Like the people!
And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Some of us live in Essex, it is close to the sea and London and has some beautiful countryside including where Alistair Meeks lives and Epping is one of the best places to live in the UK according to the Sunday Times
My great aunt used to live near Harrogate. Wonderful town.
From where my grandmother hailed. So I'm 1/4 Yorkshire lass. It is, indeed, a wonderful town. I love Yorkshire and the Lakes. I'm very fond of Lancaster and many northern cities are fabulous: Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle are great places if you're after some fun without breaking the bank.
..and you can get all the clobber people down South were wearing the previous year from TK Maxx or out of a charity shop and be the trendiest person North of Watford!
I'm really appreciating CNN coverage at the moment. Nice little piece below on the current state of campaigning. Joe Biden will be in Georgia tomorrow, which should tell you something. In fact, there's an interesting piece on where the two campaigns are spending their Top 5 money. The Republicans are in defence and the Democrats are on offence. This was (another) of the many signs in the 2019 UK General Election: the tories were fighting on ground previously out of their reach.
I believe it's the YouGov polls there. UMad and YouGov do joint polling iirc.
Hold on a minute. In that report, there is this line about those polls:
"Biden has a slight 2-point advantage among independents, "
Now, how can he be leading by so much in each of those states if he only has a slight lead amongst independents? Are they assuming many Republicans are voting for Biden? Or what weightings have they put on the candidates?
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Some of us live in Essex, it is close to the sea and London and has some beautiful countryside including where Alistair Meeks lives and Epping is one of the best places to live in the UK according to the Sunday Times
My great aunt used to live near Harrogate. Wonderful town.
From where my grandmother hailed. So I'm 1/4 Yorkshire lass. It is, indeed, a wonderful town. I love Yorkshire and the Lakes. I'm very fond of Lancaster and many northern cities are fabulous: Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle are great places if you're after some fun without breaking the bank.
..and you can get all the clobber people down South were wearing the previous year from TK Maxx or out of a charity shop and be the trendiest person North of Watford!
The trendiest people in the UK I saw in the last year were bizarrely in Edinburgh. Imaginatively put together
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The name of the organization does not inspire confidence - American Greatness sounds like a Trump PAC.
Only one question: Q1. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Donald Trump, the Republican, Joe Biden, the Democrat, or Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?
Sample size 400LV
Oddness in some of the numbers - Trump winning men by 14 but Biden winning women only by 7; Trump winning over 50% of youth and adults, Biden only winning the Seniors group, and not by much.
FWIW, I am not sure that is a balanced question, either. Trump named first, Biden sandwiched in the middle. I think you'd get better results with an unprompted question like, If the presidential election were tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
I'm really appreciating CNN coverage at the moment. Nice little piece below on the current state of campaigning. Joe Biden will be in Georgia tomorrow, which should tell you something. In fact, there's an interesting piece on where the two campaigns are spending their Top 5 money. The Republicans are in defence and the Democrats are on offence. This was (another) of the many signs in the 2019 UK General Election: the tories were fighting on ground previously out of their reach.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
I made the same point a few weeks ago and was told the sample size didn't necessarily matter once it got past a certain stage as long as general principles were followed. I am assuming that advice still stands for this poll.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
I made the same point a few weeks ago and was told the sample size didn't necessarily matter once it got past a certain stage as long as general principles were followed. I am assuming that advice still stands for this poll.
I've never heard of 400 being sufficient. 900 + seems to be the minimum accepted by psephologists. But I'm not one myself.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The independents seem to be under represented, 8% is very low. It's a partisan poll as well as it was commissioned by Center for American Greatness, so as always for any poll like this a pinch of salt needed.
Woah, there are some pretty eye-opening data there! International travel = meaningless Public transport closure = nearly meaningless Closing workplaces = meaningful Closing schools = significantly meaningful
No causal links claimed, but a few narratives come to mind, such as - prolonged indoor exposure is utterly key - the psychological effect of work and/or schools closing makes people more conscious of distancing and hygiene - being stuck on a plane for a few hours might not be a death sentence
Great find, thanks for posting it.
International travel is the most interesting one there because it is very obviously the source of the virus in an island nation so restrictions are necessary but it also seems as though once it's here other measures are better at controlling it.
Hardly a surprise. I for one having been saying that for months.
What are the odds that at least ONE of this trio messes up their ballot somehow, so that it ends up in reject bin?
Here in WA State we have situation where a leg candidate's ballot as been rejected on ground that the required signature on return envelop was signed by someone "other than voter" meaning most likely that his wife or other family member signed it for him. Which is a no-no, at least out here.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
I made the same point a few weeks ago and was told the sample size didn't necessarily matter once it got past a certain stage as long as general principles were followed. I am assuming that advice still stands for this poll.
I've never heard of 400 being sufficient. 900 + seems to be the minimum accepted by psephologists. But I'm not one myself.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
But The Literary Digest had a massive sample in 1936 and was out by nearly 20% and the much smaller sample from Gallup was better.
As I've mentioned many times but, as you know, that wasn't an opinion poll. It was a reader vote in. So a voodoo poll. A completely different beast, albeit an amusing story.
Yeah, hugely biased based on nothing but the overwhelming preponderance of the betting and polling markets and not a single word about Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar Trafalgar.
What is a more interesting and longer odds bet on Biden, than just betting on Biden? A state? ECV? Vote share? Anybody?
I have a fiver on Biden in Montana because I have money to burn.
I'm still trying to work out why I backed the Dems in Arkanas.
And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Some of us live in Essex, it is close to the sea and London and has some beautiful countryside including where Alistair Meeks lives and Epping is one of the best places to live in the UK according to the Sunday Times
If Trump does win, a lot of people owe you a big apology @HYUFD. Well done for sticking to your guns
There's nothing to be praised about intransigence. As Churchill said, echoing John Henry Newman, to live is to change.
If you want to bet successfully the last thing you need is to plant your feet in the ground and never move. We've all made mistakes doing that and you have to learn and read the actual signs taking place. The public aren't static so we shouldn't be either.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
But The Literary Digest had a massive sample in 1936 and was out by nearly 20% and the much smaller sample from Gallup was better.
As I've mentioned many times but, as you know, that wasn't an opinion poll. It was a reader vote in. So a voodoo poll. A completely different beast, albeit an amusing story.
There was an election in the UK in the last decade where ICM were more accurate with a 1,500 sample poll against a 6,000 strong sample sized YouGov poll.
Methodology and weightings are much more important than sample size.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
But The Literary Digest had a massive sample in 1936 and was out by nearly 20% and the much smaller sample from Gallup was better.
As I've mentioned many times but, as you know, that wasn't an opinion poll. It was a reader vote in. So a voodoo poll. A completely different beast, albeit an amusing story.
There was an election in the UK in the last decade where ICM were more accurate with a 1,500 sample poll against a 6,000 strong sample sized YouGov poll.
Yep, hence why most of them opt for c. 1025.
Key thing is to get sufficient in order to weight accurately. 900 + appears to be preferred by psephologists.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
I made the same point a few weeks ago and was told the sample size didn't necessarily matter once it got past a certain stage as long as general principles were followed. I am assuming that advice still stands for this poll.
Yes. If all those polls were done professionally, the 400 one still carries potential for significant random error, but the difference between the others isn’t that great.
If Trump does win, a lot of people owe you a big apology @HYUFD. Well done for sticking to your guns
There's nothing to be praised about intransigence. As Churchill said, echoing John Henry Newman, to live is to change.
If you want to bet successfully the last thing you need is to plant your feet in the ground and never move. We've all made mistakes doing that and you have to learn and read the actual signs taking place. The public aren't static so we shouldn't be either.
Not everyone bets for profit. Some people like to bet their team. Others like to bet against their team as some kind of karmic insurance. Some like to stick to their guns. All are fine, if betting for profit is not the (main) aim.
Somethings that I think need borne in mind when some of the US state polls are all over the place:
1. Trump lost the popular vote on 2016 2. Biden is nowhere near as divisive figure as Clinton therefore may well boost the Democrat vote 3. There is no evidence Trump is any more popular than he was in 2016, in fact it looks like he is less popular 4. Trumps overall figures struggle to get above 45%.
Logic would suggest there is likely to be a bigger gap between Biden and Trump than there was in 2016 and the polls pretty consistently say that. Yes Biden could be stacking it up in California and other places where he doesn't need it but some of that gap is going to make itself present elsewhere and swing states are not called that for nothing.
Secondly and here's something, what if we ignore Florida? Biden's route is the mid west and South West. It would not surprise me to see Trump hold Florida, and lose.
And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Some of us live in Essex, it is close to the sea and London and has some beautiful countryside including where Alistair Meeks lives and Epping is one of the best places to live in the UK according to the Sunday Times
My great aunt used to live near Harrogate. Wonderful town.
From where my grandmother hailed. So I'm 1/4 Yorkshire lass. It is, indeed, a wonderful town. I love Yorkshire and the Lakes. I'm very fond of Lancaster and many northern cities are fabulous: Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle are great places if you're after some fun without breaking the bank.
..and you can get all the clobber people down South were wearing the previous year from TK Maxx or out of a charity shop and be the trendiest person North of Watford!
I resemble that remark! On Saturday I bought myself a Calvin Klein coat for half price in TK Max.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
I made the same point a few weeks ago and was told the sample size didn't necessarily matter once it got past a certain stage as long as general principles were followed. I am assuming that advice still stands for this poll.
400 is small. It will have around a 5 point margin of error.
A 1000 person Penn poll would have a 3 point moe.
The Party percentages make perfect sense of checking as they match PA voter party registration figures.
And who is the first signatory after Jake Berry.... ?
In which universe is Newcastle-under-Lyme in the North?
#BloodyMidlandersWishingTheyWereNorthernersAgain
Pineapple on pizza is brilliant It's Shrewsbury like shrew, not like shrow Yes, the plane would take off The dress is blue and black, not gold You have a two-thirds chance of winning if you switch to the other door The North of England is easily the worst bit of Britain
BIB.
Nah, you've never been to (the arse end of) Glasgow or any part of Essex i take it?
Some of us live in Essex, it is close to the sea and London and has some beautiful countryside including where Alistair Meeks lives and Epping is one of the best places to live in the UK according to the Sunday Times
My great aunt used to live near Harrogate. Wonderful town. Actually, she lived just outside Ripon and bought my grandmother a cottage in Littlethorpe. Only visited one summer (1972 - I remember Valerie Borzov winning the 100m), but I remember having a great time and I particularly enjoyed the visits to Harrogate, in particular Farrah's Harrogate Toffee
I too was on a visit to Yorkshire the night Borzov won. Leeds sadly.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
I made the same point a few weeks ago and was told the sample size didn't necessarily matter once it got past a certain stage as long as general principles were followed. I am assuming that advice still stands for this poll.
I've never heard of 400 being sufficient. 900 + seems to be the minimum accepted by psephologists. But I'm not one myself.
Neither am I. Hey ho.
I have been following you for a while and you remain forthright. As the polling evidence stacks up against Trump, do you harbour any doubts at all as to likelihood of a Trump victory. A serious, if impertinent question.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The independents seem to be under represented, 8% is very low. It's a partisan poll as well as it was commissioned by Center for American Greatness, so as always for any poll like this a pinch of salt needed.
It matched Pennsylvania voter registration figures or near enough.
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Biden muffed a few answers on the test BUT teacher (and the audience) still gave him a gold star for keeping a neat desk and working & playing well with others.
Trumpsky was better behaved than usual - NOT a high bar - but couldn't help coming across like the smart-ass, dip-shit, juvenile delinquent he is.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Playing to the *next* state is not hubris.
It's when you're in Wyoming or Alabama that is hubris.
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
A website shouldn’t be almost unusable on a top of the range phone from 3 years ago, as in my case.
Furthermore, the amount of funds available now to the two camps is:
$162m for Biden vs $43.6m for Trump plus $311m Democrat Committees vs $223m Republicans.
Arizona is a F*CKING PAIN RIGHT NOW.
PBers may know my business is in Arizona. The cost of getting on someone Facebook feed has increased more than 3x in the last 10 days. The cost of YouTube has more than doubled.
Between McSally-Kelly and the Presidential, we're being utterly mullered.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
The wifey is driving past the polling station to see if the line is short enough to vote this evening. Will report later on her finding.
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
I don’t think it really matters where they go. I doubt it makes any difference at this stage.
Furthermore, the amount of funds available now to the two camps is:
$162m for Biden vs $43.6m for Trump plus $311m Democrat Committees vs $223m Republicans.
Arizona is a F*CKING PAIN RIGHT NOW.
PBers may know my business is in Arizona. The cost of getting on someone Facebook feed has increased more than 3x in the last 10 days. The cost of YouTube has more than doubled.
Between McSally-Kelly and the Presidential, we're being utterly mullered.
Should have set up shop in MD. Nary a political ad to be seen.
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
I don’t think it really matters where they go. I doubt it makes any difference at this stage.
Hillary did not step foot in Wisconsin once in 2016 and barely went to Michigan at all unlike Trump who held his final rally there, she narrowly lost both states
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Looks like Hubris.
Thats what I said about the Tories in Leigh and Bolsover.
I was wrong.
Hopefully you will be next Tuesday.
I am not counting any chickens though till its all in the bag.
If Trump does win, a lot of people owe you a big apology @HYUFD. Well done for sticking to your guns
(and, yes, I know you are not a Trumpster)
Why on earth would they?
Imagine a two party contest which consists of throwing one fair die, once, and a poster saying:
Contestant A won the last contest, so he will win this one
Polling company X predicted A's last victory and is predicting he will win this time,so he will
and contestant A wins. Is the poster due "a big apology"? You'd only think so if you thought prediction was a real concept, which is one step away from giving genuine credence to Mystic Meg and Olly the Octopus. All there is in real life is the assessment of probabilities, and people have endlessly conceded to HYUFD that the probability of Trump winning is non-zero.
If an oneiromancer starts posting and advises the site that Trump's victory is assured, because I said his name aloud thrice at sunrise on the autumn equinox and an eagle flew across the sky from right to left as I did so, are we going to analyse his methodology immediately on prior theoretical grounds, or do we wait to test this oneiromancy stuff by results on November 3? And if Trump wins do we owe the oneiromancer an apology? Why?
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The independents seem to be under represented, 8% is very low. It's a partisan poll as well as it was commissioned by Center for American Greatness, so as always for any poll like this a pinch of salt needed.
It matched Pennsylvania voter registration figures or near enough.
The party breakdown of the latest statewide registration numbers shows nearly 47% are registered Democrats; nearly 39% Republicans; and the remainder fall in the non-affiliated, independent or other party category.
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Is Hillary booking the campaign flight tickets? There is a hint of déjà vu in your post.
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
A website shouldn’t be almost unusable on a top of the range phone from 3 years ago, as in my case.
Use your phone in "Desktop mode" so that the mobile stuff switches off and you desk the Desktop version.
However, if I am posting here, the phone will still have issues. I only post here using my laptop.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
There was an interesting session on State of the Race with John King at lunchtime on CNN. He said he’d been speaking privately with several GOP pollsters and every one of them forecast a Biden victory. Said they told him that they needed to see movement and there wasn’t any.
Do your own research etc. I’m still forecasting (and backing) a narrow Trumpton win, but it’s probably down to my own pessimism bias more than anything: I also backed Romney and McCain.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
Well they better win big otherwise with Trump in Pennsylvania today, New Hampshire yesterday and North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio on Saturday and Pence in North Carolina on Sunday, Biden going to Georgia tomorrow and Iowa on Friday and Harris to Texas does look like hubris
Is Hillary booking the campaign flight tickets? There is a hint of déjà vu in your post.
In the final week of the 2016 campaign Trump did more stops in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Hillary did, he also did more stops than her in Florida and North Carolina.
Hillary only did more stops than Trump in Arizona and Ohio and in total Trump did 32 campaign events over that time to just 18 for Hillary
Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The sample size of that PA poll is 400 ...
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
But The Literary Digest had a massive sample in 1936 and was out by nearly 20% and the much smaller sample from Gallup was better.
As I've mentioned many times but, as you know, that wasn't an opinion poll. It was a reader vote in. So a voodoo poll. A completely different beast, albeit an amusing story.
The Literary Digest polll was NOT a "reader vote in" or at least not entirely. Sample was greatly expanded by surveys based on a) automobile licenses and b) telephone directories.
The LD poll HAD been reasonably close in past elections, certainly at forecasting the winner right up to 1932.
However, by 1936 the Great Depression had changed things enough to screw up the LD methodology:
> reader (and other) responses came disproportionately from voters who were ANTI-FDR because THEY had higher intensity level than Pro-Rooseveltians, even though the later WAY outnumbered the former.
> supplementing volunteered responses with surveys based on license plates and phone numbers did NOT correct for the anti-FDR skew, because by the time of Roosevelt's 2nd presidential election, plenty of folks could NOT afford cars or telephones; those who could were disproportionately of higher incomes - which in 1930s was a VERY good indicator of Republican affiliation just about everywhere in US except for the Solid (Democratic) South.
Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538) Trump up by 3% https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/ They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure. The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting
It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation 43% GOP 45% Dem 3% Libertarian 8% Independent Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
The independents seem to be under represented, 8% is very low. It's a partisan poll as well as it was commissioned by Center for American Greatness, so as always for any poll like this a pinch of salt needed.
It matched Pennsylvania voter registration figures or near enough.
Last I saw was independents were roughly 14% so 8 is rather low, doesn't by itself "invalidate" the poll though.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
Can you post your map? (You can make one on RCP or 270 To Win)
Comments
43% GOP
45% Dem
3% Libertarian
8% Independent
Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.
He is not a hero for this HY.
Like the people!
"Biden has a slight 2-point advantage among independents, "
Now, how can he be leading by so much in each of those states if he only has a slight lead amongst independents? Are they assuming many Republicans are voting for Biden? Or what weightings have they put on the candidates?
YouGov with sample sizes of 1500 and 1350 respectively have Biden leading today in Pennsylvania by 12 pts and 12 pts
and the HUGE Morning Consult poll of 15,559 sample size has Biden ahead by 9 pts.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
So it's the big sample sizes with Biden comprehensive leads vs a 400 sample size poll with Trump ahead. Up to you.
Bunch of other Newc's in US and rest of world, according to something just googled:
There are 13 places named Newcastle in America.
There are 6 places named Newcastle in Ireland.
There are 5 places named Newcastle in United Kingdom.
There are 2 places named Newcastle in South Africa.
There are 2 places named Newcastle in Canada.
There is one place named Newcastle in New Zealand.
There is one place named Newcastle in Saint Kitts and Nevis.
There is one place named Newcastle in Jamaica.
There is one place named Newcastle in Barbados.
There is one place named Newcastle in Australia.
(and, yes, I know you are not a Trumpster)
Only one question: Q1. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Donald Trump, the Republican, Joe Biden, the Democrat, or Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?
Sample size 400LV
Oddness in some of the numbers - Trump winning men by 14 but Biden winning women only by 7; Trump winning over 50% of youth and adults, Biden only winning the Seniors group, and not by much.
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf
FWIW, I am not sure that is a balanced question, either. Trump named first, Biden sandwiched in the middle. I think you'd get better results with an unprompted question like, If the presidential election were tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
It's a partisan poll as well as it was commissioned by Center for American Greatness, so as always for any poll like this a pinch of salt needed.
Here in WA State we have situation where a leg candidate's ballot as been rejected on ground that the required signature on return envelop was signed by someone "other than voter" meaning most likely that his wife or other family member signed it for him. Which is a no-no, at least out here.
If you want to bet successfully the last thing you need is to plant your feet in the ground and never move. We've all made mistakes doing that and you have to learn and read the actual signs taking place. The public aren't static so we shouldn't be either.
Methodology and weightings are much more important than sample size.
Key thing is to get sufficient in order to weight accurately. 900 + appears to be preferred by psephologists.
I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.
This page seems more stable than the first page.
https://time.com/4568359/george-gallup-polling-history/
1. Trump lost the popular vote on 2016
2. Biden is nowhere near as divisive figure as Clinton therefore may well boost the Democrat vote
3. There is no evidence Trump is any more popular than he was in 2016, in fact it looks like he is less popular
4. Trumps overall figures struggle to get above 45%.
Logic would suggest there is likely to be a bigger gap between Biden and Trump than there was in 2016 and the polls pretty consistently say that. Yes Biden could be stacking it up in California and other places where he doesn't need it but some of that gap is going to make itself present elsewhere and swing states are not called that for nothing.
Secondly and here's something, what if we ignore Florida? Biden's route is the mid west and South West. It would not surprise me to see Trump hold Florida, and lose.
A 1000 person Penn poll would have a 3 point moe.
The Party percentages make perfect sense of checking as they match PA voter party registration figures.
Also, maybe next time they can run the primaries using the format from Naked Attraction?
Trumpsky was better behaved than usual - NOT a high bar - but couldn't help coming across like the smart-ass, dip-shit, juvenile delinquent he is.
In racing parlance, we're inside the final two furlongs of the Presidential Election Handicap open to 73 year olds of all ages.
Another melange of polls this evening - plenty of attention (unsurprisingly) given to the Rasmussen national poll giving Trump a 1-point lead and an Insider Advantage poll for the wholly impartial Center for American Greatness showing Trump up by three in Pennsylvania but that poll has been debunked elsewhere and to me is a classic example of a client getting a pollster to provide the poll they want.
Before @MrEd jumps in, I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat polls and pollsters who do the same but the Republican attempts to prop up their faltering campaign by producing polls showing they are still "in with a chance" as well as ever more vitriolic attacks on Biden and the Democrats from conservative commentators and blogs carry more than a whiff of desperation.
It's like quoting the YouGov forecast produced a full month before the 2016 election (on October 4th) with the YouGov from tonight (just eight days before the election with a large number having already voted) and claiming because the 2016 forecast was wrong, the 2020 forecast will be wrong as well.
As for other polls, both IBD/TIPP (51-44) and RMG Research for Just the News (52-45) have 7-point leads for Biden.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/race-narrows-slightly-stable-nationwide-polls-following-final-presidential
On to State polls and a mixed bag with strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan balanced by a continuing tight race in Georgia and evidence of Trump pulling ahead in Texas with two polls showing four and five point leads for the President.
Finally, we have a rare poll from Maryland carried out by Gonzales Research:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Gonzales_Maryland_Poll_October_2020.pdf
In 2016, Clinton won by 26 and in this poll Biden leads by 25. We've seen this in other deep Blue states - virtually no change from 2016 or a slight move back to the President.
No change therefore in the Stodge master map this evening.
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1320802376144617477?s=20
It's when you're in Wyoming or Alabama that is hubris.
PBers may know my business is in Arizona. The cost of getting on someone Facebook feed has increased more than 3x in the last 10 days. The cost of YouTube has more than doubled.
Between McSally-Kelly and the Presidential, we're being utterly mullered.
What is the probability that Biden wins every state?
Just to an order of magnitude. Is it 1 % or 0.1 % or 0.01 % ?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320827760454045699?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320828221684879362?s=20
Thats what I said about the Tories in Leigh and Bolsover.
I was wrong.
Hopefully you will be next Tuesday.
I am not counting any chickens though till its all in the bag.
Imagine a two party contest which consists of throwing one fair die, once, and a poster saying:
Contestant A won the last contest, so he will win this one
Polling company X predicted A's last victory and is predicting he will win this time,so he will
and contestant A wins. Is the poster due "a big apology"? You'd only think so if you thought prediction was a real concept, which is one step away from giving genuine credence to Mystic Meg and Olly the Octopus. All there is in real life is the assessment of probabilities, and people have endlessly conceded to HYUFD that the probability of Trump winning is non-zero.
If an oneiromancer starts posting and advises the site that Trump's victory is assured, because I said his name aloud thrice at sunrise on the autumn equinox and an eagle flew across the sky from right to left as I did so, are we going to analyse his methodology immediately on prior theoretical grounds, or do we wait to test this oneiromancy stuff by results on November 3? And if Trump wins do we owe the oneiromancer an apology? Why?
So that's a good proxy for the odds.
https://www.pennlive.com/nation-world/2020/10/nearly-9-million-in-pa-have-registered-to-vote-in-nov-3-election-already-topping-2016.html
The party breakdown of the latest statewide registration numbers shows nearly 47% are registered Democrats; nearly 39% Republicans; and the remainder fall in the non-affiliated, independent or other party category.
Or has Dido taken over running the site?
However, if I am posting here, the phone will still have issues. I only post here using my laptop.
Do your own research etc. I’m still forecasting (and backing) a narrow Trumpton win, but it’s probably down to my own pessimism bias more than anything: I also backed Romney and McCain.
Hillary only did more stops than Trump in Arizona and Ohio and in total Trump did 32 campaign events over that time to just 18 for Hillary
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/07/clinton-trump-final-campaign-stops-election-what-it-means
I have that down as a certain Trump hold.
The LD poll HAD been reasonably close in past elections, certainly at forecasting the winner right up to 1932.
However, by 1936 the Great Depression had changed things enough to screw up the LD methodology:
> reader (and other) responses came disproportionately from voters who were ANTI-FDR because THEY had higher intensity level than Pro-Rooseveltians, even though the later WAY outnumbered the former.
> supplementing volunteered responses with surveys based on license plates and phone numbers did NOT correct for the anti-FDR skew, because by the time of Roosevelt's 2nd presidential election, plenty of folks could NOT afford cars or telephones; those who could were disproportionately of higher incomes - which in 1930s was a VERY good indicator of Republican affiliation just about everywhere in US except for the Solid (Democratic) South.
But when our current Prime Minister becomes an ex-Prime Minister (hold on to that thought), what initiatives will he endorse?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/mRx1n