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The latest YouGov UC elections model has Biden 356 ECVs Trump 182 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,963

    I think they are probably doing this to avoid slip ups - and it's probably wise.
    Probably not a bad idea to avoid coming down with Covid, either.

    What if Biden was sick with it in hospital on polling day? What if, unlike Trump, he didn't make a quick recovery?

    It may only be worth a couple of per cent of votes but that could b enough to swing the election.

    I'd be minimising my risk, too.

    I reckon Biden being sick or in hospital on polling day would be the ultimate black swan, the only chance Trump has of winning the election.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,327
    The Manchester Evening News asked for trust-by-trust Covid admissions numbers as a proportion of overall capacity in Greater Manchester. Six out of seven relevant trusts did not comply with the request. Wigan, Wrightington and Leigh said that ‘we are unable to provide figures - these will be issued at national level’, while none others replied. We were advised that a Freedom of Information request was required to obtain the data and it would take up to 21 days for a response. At the Oxford University Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, we have also had access to essential healthcare data blocked. But we are aware of important data, used to set lockdown restrictions, that are not in the public domain. This disturbing lack of transparency in what is a global public health and economic crisis hinders our understanding.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-ten-worst-Covid-data-failures
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    The Manchester Evening News asked for trust-by-trust Covid admissions numbers as a proportion of overall capacity in Greater Manchester. Six out of seven relevant trusts did not comply with the request. Wigan, Wrightington and Leigh said that ‘we are unable to provide figures - these will be issued at national level’, while none others replied. We were advised that a Freedom of Information request was required to obtain the data and it would take up to 21 days for a response. At the Oxford University Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, we have also had access to essential healthcare data blocked. But we are aware of important data, used to set lockdown restrictions, that are not in the public domain. This disturbing lack of transparency in what is a global public health and economic crisis hinders our understanding.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-ten-worst-Covid-data-failures

    https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1320303370545102849
  • Options
    With respect to accessing PB, yours truly doesn't do this via cell phone, only on PC.

    Get best results = fastest loading IF I close down windows for other websites, except for email; OR conversely exit PB when using other sites, esp if I'm downloading data or whatever.

    Humble proposal - IF possible, might be good idea, especially for US Election Day, to have access to a bare-bones PB (or is that Vanilla?) which would include main posts and comments thereon, but NOT tweets, youtubes, graphics, etc., etc.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,143

    HYUFD said:

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.

    Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll.

    Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
    Is there any actual evidence that Clinton's failure to visit Wisconsin made any difference to the result?
    Well Trump did make a campaign stop in Wisconsin in 2016, we know that
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146

    With respect to accessing PB, yours truly doesn't do this via cell phone, only on PC.

    Get best results = fastest loading IF I close down windows for other websites, except for email; OR conversely exit PB when using other sites, esp if I'm downloading data or whatever.

    Humble proposal - IF possible, might be good idea, especially for US Election Day, to have access to a bare-bones PB (or is that Vanilla?) which would include main posts and comments thereon, but NOT tweets, youtubes, graphics, etc., etc.

    We had an IRC channel for one the UK elections. That was excellent.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    IanB2 said:

    Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.

    I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.

    This page seems more stable than the first page.

    I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
    Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
    Me too, on the iPad. But the PC is fine.
    The problem is the Vanilla javascipt. It only loads the comments if they are to be visible on screen - it's a cheap trick they use to try and save bandwidth.

    Scroll up and down a few times and the comments will load.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,146
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem is the Vanilla javascipt. It only loads the comments if they are to be visible on screen - it's a cheap trick they use to try and save bandwidth.

    Scroll up and down a few times and the comments will load.

    Something broke with the latest release of Firefox.

    Using Edge now...
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    IshmaelZ said:

    A member of the South East Liberal Democrats and a reader of Lockdown Sceptics was outraged yesterday when he received an invitation to the SE Region Conference and AGM on November 21st. This was his reply

    "I am surprised that these MPs listed below have the bare-faced effrontery to show their faces in front of members after they have unilaterally committed our supposedly LIBERAL party to demanding that the government impose full-scale martial law on the British people."

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/

    Not thought through "bare-faced" as an insult.
    Why, you bare-faced PBer, you!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Half the time this site is unusable on the iPhone. Just gets endless loading errors. The retweets/embedded images might be responsible.

    I assume there is an outlier poll out from Eagles “Crikey” response, but I don’t know it is from or what it says.

    This page seems more stable than the first page.

    I suspect that may be due to the processing power or memory of your iphone or possibly your internet bandwidth. I say this because, I never have an problems at home on my 10 year old macbook but when on holiday in a remote Cornish cottage a couple of weeks ago I got loading error issues on our (rather underpowered) iPad.
    Nothing to do with my internet bandwidth which is the fastest available on the consumer market. This is the only site my phone struggles with in this way.
    Me too, on the iPad. But the PC is fine.
    The problem is the Vanilla javascipt. It only loads the comments if they are to be visible on screen - it's a cheap trick they use to try and save bandwidth.

    Scroll up and down a few times and the comments will load.
    I've noticed high CPU on my mac while it's loading comments on the vanilla site. Seemed to be while the tweets are loading, so maybe there's something up in that part of the script?
  • Options

    With respect to accessing PB, yours truly doesn't do this via cell phone, only on PC.

    Get best results = fastest loading IF I close down windows for other websites, except for email; OR conversely exit PB when using other sites, esp if I'm downloading data or whatever.

    Humble proposal - IF possible, might be good idea, especially for US Election Day, to have access to a bare-bones PB (or is that Vanilla?) which would include main posts and comments thereon, but NOT tweets, youtubes, graphics, etc., etc.

    Tweets might be very useful, though, if well-chosen.
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    Scott_xP said:
    Can someone please translate this - the Great Pudding part - into American?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,088
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.

    Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll.

    Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
    Is there any actual evidence that Clinton's failure to visit Wisconsin made any difference to the result?
    Well Trump did make a campaign stop in Wisconsin in 2016, we know that
    I know that but that isn't evidence. We're only guessing.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,225
    I have no basis for saying this but I can’t help feeling that Trump might just do it. There just seems too much hubris around. I do wonder whether people are confusing what they want to happen with what will happen.

    I would be appalled if so.

    But that is my fear.

    I really hope I am wrong.

    On the other big question of the day, my other half utterly loathes Harrogate for complicated family reasons he once explained and I have forgotten. I quite liked it when I have visited and went to a wonderful Jewish-Irish family wedding there a few years back.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.

    Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll and he is doing the same now

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320810565523001344?s=20

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320770458527158272?s=20

    Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
    Why bother when whatever happens Trump has it in the bag already?
  • Options

    With respect to accessing PB, yours truly doesn't do this via cell phone, only on PC.

    Get best results = fastest loading IF I close down windows for other websites, except for email; OR conversely exit PB when using other sites, esp if I'm downloading data or whatever.

    Humble proposal - IF possible, might be good idea, especially for US Election Day, to have access to a bare-bones PB (or is that Vanilla?) which would include main posts and comments thereon, but NOT tweets, youtubes, graphics, etc., etc.

    Tweets might be very useful, though, if well-chosen.
    Agreed. Could they be made less bandwith-hoggy? And are they worse that way than youtubes or graphics?
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    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538)
    Trump up by 3%
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
    They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
    The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting

    It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation
    43% GOP
    45% Dem
    3% Libertarian
    8% Independent
    Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.


    That was one powerful and extended speech by Trump tonight in PA ... he's certainly putting in the hard graft compared with his opponent.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's slightly odd. There was some social media stuff posted on here earlier saying the Oxford lot had got a one year immunity out of the vaccine.
    And a time machine, presumably.
    (1) Immunity is (mostly) a curve, not a step function.
    (2) If you see the immune response drop off at 1% per week, you can estimate the response level at one year with a pretty high degree of accuracy.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,327
    edited October 2020
    "covid, a supposedly deadly viral pandemic, has not killed enough Swedes to have any noticeable impact on overall mortality."


    https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/10/24/how-deadly-is-covid-19/

    Warning: 'Lock us all down harder' proponents will not like this article.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    HYUFD said:

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.

    Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll and he is doing the same now

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320810565523001344?s=20

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320770458527158272?s=20

    Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
    We'll find out in eight days time.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    HYUFD said:

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.

    Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll and he is doing the same now

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320810565523001344?s=20

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320770458527158272?s=20

    Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
    As an aside, your view seems to be that the polling industry has learned nothing from 2016, when all the evidence is that they were utterly scarred by it.
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    HYUFD said:

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Much like Hillary tailed off her campaign in 2016 too you mean from a position of strength in the polls, doing half as many events as Trump and not even bothering to visit Wisconsin.

    Meanwhile Clinton staffers started to draw up Cabinet position appointments and prepare for the transition while Trump kept going campaigning up to and including a midnight rally in Michigan on eve of poll.

    Have the Democrats learnt nothing from 2016?
    Is there any actual evidence that Clinton's failure to visit Wisconsin made any difference to the result?
    Sure as hell did NOT help. In a state assumed by her to be in the bag that she lost by not so much.

    Which does NOT answer your question.

    However, consider IF she took Badger State for granted re: her personal campaign schedule, how high did she prioritize, staff and fund OTHER key campaign operations in the state?

    Like the man said, sometimes you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
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    If you have some popcorn to hand, there's an entertaining Twitter spat between the excellent trio of @david_herdson, @AlastairMeeks, and @Casino_Royale.
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    Scott_xP said:
    Lawks.

    First, that so many MPs are that hacked off. (Though I can't escape the feeling that... they trusted BORIS... that wasn't entirely prudent...)

    Second, that there are that many MPs who are both unhappy enough to add weight to this letter but fearful of something enough to not want their name attached. Though if I were a vindictive Prime Minister, I'd probably instruct a minion to get a map, start at Berwick and identify the 55 northernmost Conservative MPs in England.
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    Is the bloke in the red tie one of the Red Wall rebel MPs? AND is this pic evidence that they've begun sacking Mayfair?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    SKS about to upset the lycra cyclists.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1320856026409799680
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's slightly odd. There was some social media stuff posted on here earlier saying the Oxford lot had got a one year immunity out of the vaccine.
    It also doesn't take into account T and B cell immunity, which could be very long lasting. There's no way of knowing without a mass vaccination programme and the passage of a significant amount of time.
    And also that the immune response from vaccination isn’t identical to that from infection.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,143
    dr_spyn said:
    Might get some of the white van man vote though
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,922
    edited October 2020
    I don't want to hear about the north/south divide because tens of millions of people in the middle of the country don't fit into either category.
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    Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538)
    Trump up by 3%
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
    They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
    The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting

    It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation
    43% GOP
    45% Dem
    3% Libertarian
    8% Independent
    Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.


    That was one powerful and extended speech by Trump tonight in PA ... he's certainly putting in the hard graft compared with his opponent.
    The thing is he knows hes behind, he knows he needs every vote, so he has no choice but to do what hes doing. Question is can he really change enough minds. His locked in 43% or whatever it is are not who he needs to convince. And no matter how 'powerful' his speeches are there really enough still undecideds who will be swayed? I'm not sure there are.
    I would say that there has to be some risk for Biden in just coasting to the finish line, I get the reasons why he may not be doing the hard final yards like Trump but with wall to wall Trump rallies on the news til election day,,,,is it just possible enough will be convinced to vote for DT to sneak him home in places like PA?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,989
    dr_spyn said:
    “ Bizarrely, The Sun pictured Sir Keir outside Kentish Town Police Station yesterday morning but he later claimed he had been on a trip to “his tailors”.“
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    Re: tweets re: Twit-in-Chief and his travels, am shocked that no PBer has seen fit to draw attention to "Lititz".

    Also impressed that POTUS did not butcher this in some creative and likely obscene way. OR have staff installed a REAL good spell-checker?

    Note that Lititz is (of course) not far from Blue Balls or Intercourse. Or Punxsutawney.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,922
    Disappointed that BBC Parliament isn't showing the US Senate atm.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's slightly odd. There was some social media stuff posted on here earlier saying the Oxford lot had got a one year immunity out of the vaccine.
    It also doesn't take into account T and B cell immunity, which could be very long lasting. There's no way of knowing without a mass vaccination programme and the passage of a significant amount of time.
    And also that the immune response from vaccination isn’t identical to that from infection.
    Indeed, vaccine derived immunity may give better long term protection than an asymptomatic or mild infection.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    If you have some popcorn to hand, there's an entertaining Twitter spat between the excellent trio of @david_herdson, @AlastairMeeks, and @Casino_Royale.

    It's a corker!

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320826961435000837?s=20
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    isamisam Posts: 40,989

    If you have some popcorn to hand, there's an entertaining Twitter spat between the excellent trio of @david_herdson, @AlastairMeeks, and @Casino_Royale.

    I just read it, whilst eating popcorn!

    They’ll have to start writing tweets on twitter but not dirty themselves by replying to any responses
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Some interesting stuff:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320831721676439558?s=20

    Some people should get out more....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,143
    isam said:

    If you have some popcorn to hand, there's an entertaining Twitter spat between the excellent trio of @david_herdson, @AlastairMeeks, and @Casino_Royale.

    I just read it, whilst eating popcorn!

    They’ll have to start writing tweets on twitter but not dirty themselves by replying to any responses
    I believe it is all in response to this

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320829330080079877?s=20
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    isamisam Posts: 40,989
    A night in nick? Maybe he’s not so boring!

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1320859237095014400?s=21
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    I did the 538 "predict some states and we'll tell you the likely result". Came out with 42% Biden, 6% trump, and 52% tie.
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    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538)
    Trump up by 3%
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
    They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
    The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting

    It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation
    43% GOP
    45% Dem
    3% Libertarian
    8% Independent
    Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.


    That was one powerful and extended speech by Trump tonight in PA ... he's certainly putting in the hard graft compared with his opponent.
    The thing is he knows hes behind, he knows he needs every vote, so he has no choice but to do what hes doing. Question is can he really change enough minds. His locked in 43% or whatever it is are not who he needs to convince. And no matter how 'powerful' his speeches are there really enough still undecideds who will be swayed? I'm not sure there are.
    I would say that there has to be some risk for Biden in just coasting to the finish line, I get the reasons why he may not be doing the hard final yards like Trump but with wall to wall Trump rallies on the news til election day,,,,is it just possible enough will be convinced to vote for DT to sneak him home in places like PA?
    As other PBers have noted, a BIG problem for Trumpsky is that he is likely doing as much GOTV = Get Out The Vote for Biden and other Dem as he is for himself and GOP.

    Different from Harry Truman and his "Given 'em Hell Harry" whistle-stop tour in 1948. But similar to Andrew Johnson in (midterm) 1866 ("Ring Around the Circle") and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 (the year he won the Democratic nomination and galvanized - or rather polarized - the nation with his "Cross of Gold" Speech.)
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,922
    According to RCP's battleground states averages, Biden's lead is up in Michigan but down or level elsewhere.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,029
    isam said:

    A night in nick? Maybe he’s not so boring!

    I've had 4! 2 x UK, 1 x Thailand, 1 x Bahrain

    UK (London) was the worst and Bahrain was the best.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    isam said:

    dr_spyn said:
    “ Bizarrely, The Sun pictured Sir Keir outside Kentish Town Police Station yesterday morning but he later claimed he had been on a trip to “his tailors”.“
    Having his collar felt.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    This looks like a pretty well documented case of inflight transmission.
    Reading the paper, it seems pretty clear that at least some of the cases were infected during the flight.

    https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1320811661717131264
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2020

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Very strange. Surely a tactical mistake? Are they the keys for a good Senate majority perhaps?
    No, he is defending the House.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    isam said:

    A night in nick? Maybe he’s not so boring!

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1320859237095014400?s=21

    KT Police Station is on a side street and it doesn't lead into a particularly nice neighbourhood, certainly not one with a tailor...
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,132
    Matt Goodwin is a breathless culture warrior, a real devotee to the cause.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,143
    edited October 2020

    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538)
    Trump up by 3%
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
    They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
    The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting

    It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation
    43% GOP
    45% Dem
    3% Libertarian
    8% Independent
    Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.


    That was one powerful and extended speech by Trump tonight in PA ... he's certainly putting in the hard graft compared with his opponent.
    The thing is he knows hes behind, he knows he needs every vote, so he has no choice but to do what hes doing. Question is can he really change enough minds. His locked in 43% or whatever it is are not who he needs to convince. And no matter how 'powerful' his speeches are there really enough still undecideds who will be swayed? I'm not sure there are.
    I would say that there has to be some risk for Biden in just coasting to the finish line, I get the reasons why he may not be doing the hard final yards like Trump but with wall to wall Trump rallies on the news til election day,,,,is it just possible enough will be convinced to vote for DT to sneak him home in places like PA?
    As other PBers have noted, a BIG problem for Trumpsky is that he is likely doing as much GOTV = Get Out The Vote for Biden and other Dem as he is for himself and GOP.

    Different from Harry Truman and his "Given 'em Hell Harry" whistle-stop tour in 1948. But similar to Andrew Johnson in (midterm) 1866 ("Ring Around the Circle") and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 (the year he won the Democratic nomination and galvanized - or rather polarized - the nation with his "Cross of Gold" Speech.)
    Evidence? Johnson was a stop gap President after Johnson and unlike Trump had never won an election, Bryan also never won an election either, Trump has won an election and just needs to hold his 2016 states
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    Some interesting stuff:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320831721676439558?s=20

    Some people should get out more....

    They are truly strange.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,363

    Some interesting stuff:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320831721676439558?s=20

    Some people should get out more....

    ...she mused, as she composed her 42,458th post on PB. :)
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    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Very strange. Surely a tactical mistake? Are they the keys for a good Senate majority perhaps?
    No, he is defending the House.
    Chance of Democrats losing US House this election is zilch, or as close to as makes no never mind.

    Ds could lose a seat here and there, for example in Oklahoma & Staten Island were they had surprising victories in 2018. However, these loses will be made up for - and more - by gains elsewhere.

    Biden's priorities are 1) Number One = himself; and 2) US Senate, because he wants to govern US instead of merely preside.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,132
    edited October 2020
    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    It looks like a fairly new member of the German fleet, although hard to see from that shot. Audi Q5 or Q7 maybe?

    In which case, it will be clean(er) diesel. AdBlue.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,922
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,795
    edited October 2020
    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    Isn't Diesel more fuel efficient than Petrol?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,088
    CatMan said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    Isn't Diesel more fuel efficient than Petrol?
    Yes, but more particulates.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538)
    Trump up by 3%
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
    They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
    The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting

    It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation
    43% GOP
    45% Dem
    3% Libertarian
    8% Independent
    Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.


    That was one powerful and extended speech by Trump tonight in PA ... he's certainly putting in the hard graft compared with his opponent.
    The thing is he knows hes behind, he knows he needs every vote, so he has no choice but to do what hes doing. Question is can he really change enough minds. His locked in 43% or whatever it is are not who he needs to convince. And no matter how 'powerful' his speeches are there really enough still undecideds who will be swayed? I'm not sure there are.
    I would say that there has to be some risk for Biden in just coasting to the finish line, I get the reasons why he may not be doing the hard final yards like Trump but with wall to wall Trump rallies on the news til election day,,,,is it just possible enough will be convinced to vote for DT to sneak him home in places like PA?
    Well, that's his hope.

    The issue is that in so much of the US, the voting is effectively over. Take North Carolina. Turnout was up to 3.2m at close of yesterday. It's probably about 3.45m now. And it probably won't top 5m in total. So, we're two thirds done now: that just makes his job so much harder.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061

    Some interesting stuff:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1320831721676439558?s=20

    Some people should get out more....

    People who live in... etc...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,989
    MrEd said:

    isam said:

    A night in nick? Maybe he’s not so boring!

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1320859237095014400?s=21

    KT Police Station is on a side street and it doesn't lead into a particularly nice neighbourhood, certainly not one with a tailor...

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    isamisam Posts: 40,989
    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    They’ll be voting BLM

    https://twitter.com/ticerichard/status/1320730016641155074?s=21
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    HYUFD said:

    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538)
    Trump up by 3%
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
    They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
    The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting

    It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation
    43% GOP
    45% Dem
    3% Libertarian
    8% Independent
    Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.


    That was one powerful and extended speech by Trump tonight in PA ... he's certainly putting in the hard graft compared with his opponent.
    The thing is he knows hes behind, he knows he needs every vote, so he has no choice but to do what hes doing. Question is can he really change enough minds. His locked in 43% or whatever it is are not who he needs to convince. And no matter how 'powerful' his speeches are there really enough still undecideds who will be swayed? I'm not sure there are.
    I would say that there has to be some risk for Biden in just coasting to the finish line, I get the reasons why he may not be doing the hard final yards like Trump but with wall to wall Trump rallies on the news til election day,,,,is it just possible enough will be convinced to vote for DT to sneak him home in places like PA?
    As other PBers have noted, a BIG problem for Trumpsky is that he is likely doing as much GOTV = Get Out The Vote for Biden and other Dem as he is for himself and GOP.

    Different from Harry Truman and his "Given 'em Hell Harry" whistle-stop tour in 1948. But similar to Andrew Johnson in (midterm) 1866 ("Ring Around the Circle") and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 (the year he won the Democratic nomination and galvanized - or rather polarized - the nation with his "Cross of Gold" Speech.)
    Evidence? Johnson was a stop gap President after Johnson and unlike Trump had never won an election, Bryan also never won an election either, Trump has won an election and just needs to hold his 2016 states
    Your failure to comment on the victory of the Man from Independence seriously throws you ENTIRE argument, not just into question, but into the garbage shoot of history! PLUS you entirely ignore fact that A. Johnson was intoxicated at his own VP inauguration AND that Williams Jennings Bryan helped popularize the Palm Beach suit!

    Just kidding.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Scott_xP said:
    Half a moment, half a moment.

    That fecker Jake Berry doesn't even live in the North of England.

    He doesn't even have a home in his constituency of Rossendale & Darwen. The address on his nomination papers is an office. He doesn't even live in the North of England.

    He is not Jake of the North. How can he possibly be in charge of a Northern Research Group of Tory MPs?

    The arrogant little shite lives on Ynys Mon. He has an enormous property empire there. He owns houses in Michael Meacher-like quantities on Anglesey.

    The matter was gone into in some thoroughness by the Welsh press when he bought his pox-infected family to Wales at the beginning of lockdown. There is no Berry home in Rossendale & Darwen.

    If Drakeford was arresting people like Jake Berry on the border and inserting a large nest of killer hornets into them, he would be getting my full support.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:

    This looks like a pretty well documented case of inflight transmission.
    Reading the paper, it seems pretty clear that at least some of the cases were infected during the flight.

    https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1320811661717131264

    The paper says nine of the passengers (who were later diagnosed with CV19) wore masks, one did not, and they are unsure about the other three.

    It would be good to know if the first diagnosed case (two days after arrival) was wearing a mask or not. Because two days before diagnosis is pretty much peak infectiousness.
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    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.
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    The Starmer story is one of the most nothing burger stories in a long time.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,132

    CatMan said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    Isn't Diesel more fuel efficient than Petrol?
    Yes, but more particulates.
    That car looks new and smart enough to be a clean diesel - AdBlue and particulate filter on board most likely.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,312
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,922
    CatMan said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    Isn't Diesel more fuel efficient than Petrol?
    More efficient but more polluting IIRC.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,363

    FPT - on a number of issues, like benefits/free school meals, and the balance of opinion over increasing tax/reducing spending, it feels to me like the sands of British politics are shifting in a way they simply weren't in 2014-15.

    These things do tend to go in cycles. My gut tells me that the next GE *should* be Labour's to lose. And, indeed, after 14 years of Conservatives in Government that might even be healthy for our democracy (and even may allow a late save for the Union), although I'd never vote Labour - at the end of the day I'm not a social democrat, yet alone a socialist.

    However, Labour shouldn't and won't be gifted it on a plate. And the cultural divisions are more entrenched.

    At present, I cannot tell if economics + competence alone will be enough for Labour to win - my instinct is that they will have to neutralise the cultural concerns people have over them, particularly on patriotism/migration and crime, at the very least to secure enough English marginals to win.

    Good post.

    Labour need to completely avoid any culture war stuff - that needs to be left to the obsessives on the hard right. If they can do that, they have a chance, if they get dragged back into it, no chance.
    I agree with the sentiment, but your post would be more convincing if you mentioned the obsessives on the hard left too.

    My litmus test for self-awareness of Labour/left-wing posters on this is their ability to detect the fact that BLM marxist activists/left-wing CRT academics who go on about tearing down statues, "whiteness" being a problem, and trashing British history to take it back year zero, are hindering their cause.
    I'd agree with that (that's the second time this evening I've agreed with you, gosh). Diverting reformist energy into obsessing about symbols is simply unserious. The key question for any policy should be "How much does this help how many people now and in the future?", not "Does this make us feel better and correctly adjust our view of the past?"
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,795
    edited October 2020

    CatMan said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    Isn't Diesel more fuel efficient than Petrol?
    Yes, but more particulates.
    But don't new Diesel cars have something that reduces them? Something to do with "Euro 6" regulations?

    https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/emissions/euro-emissions-standards/#euro-6-diesel
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    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    The Starmer story is one of the most nothing burger stories in a long time.

    I wonder if it will get as much attention as Boris supposedly going to Italy. 🙄
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,217

    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    Is that why he is staying in his basement?!
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,132

    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    I read on here that George was the name of the host. I mean, we’ve all done haven’t we? I know I have.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061

    But that he will spend part of his remaining time on the campaign trail in Iowa and Georgia, two states that had seemed unattainable for Democrats at the beginning of the presidential cycle, suggests that the Biden campaign feels it is in a position of strength heading into the final stretch against President Trump.

    NYTimes blog

    Very strange. Surely a tactical mistake? Are they the keys for a good Senate majority perhaps?
    No, he is defending the House.
    Are there many vulnerable Democratic seats in the House in Iowa and Georgia?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,225
    Well, it looks like the infection which has had me in A&E, on antibiotics and really quite sick twice this year, has come back again - barely a month since the last time.

    FFS! Can 2020 get any worse?

    I’m hoping a good night’s sleep will fight it off.

    Night all.
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    Get well soon Cyclefree.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    HYUFD said:

    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Not sure if this PA poll by Insider Advantage has been posted yet (rated B by 538)
    Trump up by 3%
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/
    They mention in the summary that 14% of African Americans are voting Trump which certainly is a feasible figure.
    The fact its not the usual pollsters putting Trump up is interesting

    It's an interesting poll. The only thing that strikes me as weird is the party affiliation
    43% GOP
    45% Dem
    3% Libertarian
    8% Independent
    Is number that don't make any sesne unless I can see the questions. As it is an American poll we don't get to see the questions.


    That was one powerful and extended speech by Trump tonight in PA ... he's certainly putting in the hard graft compared with his opponent.
    The thing is he knows hes behind, he knows he needs every vote, so he has no choice but to do what hes doing. Question is can he really change enough minds. His locked in 43% or whatever it is are not who he needs to convince. And no matter how 'powerful' his speeches are there really enough still undecideds who will be swayed? I'm not sure there are.
    I would say that there has to be some risk for Biden in just coasting to the finish line, I get the reasons why he may not be doing the hard final yards like Trump but with wall to wall Trump rallies on the news til election day,,,,is it just possible enough will be convinced to vote for DT to sneak him home in places like PA?
    As other PBers have noted, a BIG problem for Trumpsky is that he is likely doing as much GOTV = Get Out The Vote for Biden and other Dem as he is for himself and GOP.

    Different from Harry Truman and his "Given 'em Hell Harry" whistle-stop tour in 1948. But similar to Andrew Johnson in (midterm) 1866 ("Ring Around the Circle") and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 (the year he won the Democratic nomination and galvanized - or rather polarized - the nation with his "Cross of Gold" Speech.)
    Evidence? Johnson was a stop gap President after Johnson and unlike Trump had never won an election, Bryan also never won an election either, Trump has won an election and just needs to hold his 2016 states
    The evidence is in the polls:

    The biggest motivator for Trump supporters is Trump himself.
    The biggest motivator for Biden supporters is also Trump
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2020

    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    We are being told this is a master plan, a "front porch" campaign, because Democrats are so timid to come out of their homes to support Trump's opponent (despite trashing their cities a couple of months earlier).

    Yeah, makes sense.
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    Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz-PRvxYIvo&list=PLNnvRmSI3d20oGjLBmK1lr7C2PpDOkUou&index=1046
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3e4QoxKIfo
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    edited October 2020
    isam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    They’ll be voting BLM

    https://twitter.com/ticerichard/status/1320730016641155074?s=21
    I misread Black Lives Matter Party as Black Lives Matter Partly, and I thought whoahhhh....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited October 2020
    MaxPB said:

    The Starmer story is one of the most nothing burger stories in a long time.

    I wonder if it will get as much attention as Boris supposedly going to Italy. 🙄
    Let me think......I highly doubt the BBC will be sending two journalist teams to work on it.

    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    I read on here that George was the name of the host. I mean, we’ve all done haven’t we? I know I have.
    During the debate he made a number of similar gaffes.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, it looks like the infection which has had me in A&E, on antibiotics and really quite sick twice this year, has come back again - barely a month since the last time.

    FFS! Can 2020 get any worse?

    I’m hoping a good night’s sleep will fight it off.

    Night all.

    Get well soon!
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,312

    The Starmer story is one of the most nothing burger stories in a long time.

    Not for the cyclist it wasn't.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061

    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    When you're ahead, you don't want to risk a slip up; you don't want to risk illness or the stresses that come with being on the road for 16 hours a day.

    I think the Biden campaign is - rightly or wrongly - relying on President Trump to motivate its supporters. Given how little effort Trump has put into growing his base, this might well be the right strategy.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited October 2020
    I foresee President Biden being at the level of George Bush Jnr on the gaffe-o-meter, but after 4 years of Trump where every other sentence he utters contains a lie, the Overton window has shifted so far & I have a feeling CNN won't spend 24hrs covering every gaffe like they do with Trump.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    RobD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, it looks like the infection which has had me in A&E, on antibiotics and really quite sick twice this year, has come back again - barely a month since the last time.

    FFS! Can 2020 get any worse?

    I’m hoping a good night’s sleep will fight it off.

    Night all.

    Get well soon!
    Seconded.
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    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
    I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited October 2020
    Dr. Gammons is a professional “inspirational and motivational speaker” and claims to have spoken to rallies of up to 4 million people, becoming a friend and adviser to “Presidents, Prime Ministers, Royalty, Celebrities and World Leaders” in the process.

    https://order-order.com/2020/10/26/dr-gammons-set-to-take-ukips-fight-to-sadiq-khan/

    At least the esteemed Prof Paul Nuttall tried to make is massively over inflated CV seem vaguely plausible.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,314
    For some reason 538 have only recorded the Ipsos polls for PA and WI and have left off all the others.

    I thought they always recorded all polls - surely they haven't overlooked them?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061

    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    He keeps doing similar stuff, so I would say probably yes to some extent.
    I can see Trump majoring on this aspect repeatedly over the final week of the campaign. He was already doing so in a mocking fashion in his speech this evening from PA by attempting to ridicule Biden confusing one state with another.
    Texas is now at 82.2% of total turnout - and that excludes ballots in the mail that haven't yet been processed!

    Most of the votes are now cast in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Colorado - and Michigan and Wisconsin are only just below the 50% mark,

    Simply, at this stage a gaffe has to be absolutely enormous to change the result.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,029

    dr_spyn said:

    Waits for Greta Thunberg, and Corbyn cult to find out that SKS drove a diesel SUV.

    It looks like a fairly new member of the German fleet, although hard to see from that shot. Audi Q5 or Q7 maybe?

    In which case, it will be clean(er) diesel. AdBlue.
    It's a fucking Toyota RAV 4! How can you confuse that with an Audi Q5/7?
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    Serious question: Is Biden perhaps being kept out of harm's way on account of his apparent mental fragility? I saw a video clip today in which he seemed to hesitatingly refer to Trump as 'George', with his wife by his side, appearing to be embarrassed. Not good.

    We are being told this is a master plan, a "front porch" campaign, because Democrats are so timid to come out of their homes to support Trump's opponent (despite trashing their cities a couple of months earlier).

    Yeah, makes sense.
    You've been told - by me - that Biden is waging a front porch campaign but NOT for the reason you say.
This discussion has been closed.