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The polling gets even better for Biden but Betfair punters remain cautious – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Barnesian said:

    It's getting to Trump. He's gone all CAPITALS.



    Then I heard a loud voice from the temple saying to the seven angels, "Go, pour out the seven bowls of God's wrath on the earth."

    The first angel went and poured out his bowl on the land, and ugly and painful sores broke out on the people who had the mark of the beast and worshiped his image.

    The second angel poured out his bowl on the sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead man, and every living thing in the sea died.

    The third angel poured out his bowl on the rivers and springs of water, and they became blood.


    Then I heard the angel in charge of the waters say: "You are just in these judgments, you who are and who were, the Holy One, because you have so judged.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    Scott_xP said:
    Pretty peculiar attitude to hold that MPs should concern themselves only with their own constituencies.
  • Nigelb said:

    This is just stupid, especially when the support given to those told to self isolate is deeply inadequate.

    https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1317496694808956928

    How many will be deleting the app this weekend?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Crap. I hate it when this happens.
    (One of last year’s laureates for medicine.)

    https://twitter.com/FredrikJutfelt/status/1316992237939658753
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,726
    edited October 2020
    No one I know has any real certainty of EXACTLY what the newly announced Covid 19 rules mean. It is a farce.

    We are self isolating anyway, even tho' our risk is apparently "medium".
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    In the short term she has gambled and won massively, and on the back of that deserves her electoral victory. Because it could have gone a lot worse. However it is not actually difficult to see how in the longer term she has created a massive problem for New Zealand, certainly without a successful vaccine - and in fact even possibly with a vaccine, so massively has she succeeded in 'beating' Coronavirus.

    Because effectively the policy in New Zealand is to respond to any untraceable community detected cases with city wide lockdowns. It is very similar (although differently implemented) to what is happening in China (such that we can work out given the secrecy). Under this policy they simply CANNOT open their borders to anyone, and cannot relax their quarantine protocols at all.

    Given that a vaccine is unlikely to be totally effective they are in a position of effectively having to accept a level of deaths to pivot to a position of opening up. Maybe this will not be so difficult to sell as the economic effects seriously feed through, but it is a political risk.

    If there is no reasonably effective vaccine - it is not at all clear where they go at all.

    However, not having to socially distance, being able to watch sports, the arts, go to the pub, attempt to engage in casual sex, travel the country freely, work and shop normally, etc.,etc., are serious counter balances.
    The Telegraph seems determined to become clickbait rather than a serious news organisation.
    Foreign holidays are not a big thing for most Kiwis, but the domestic tourist industry must be a big economic hit in parts. Opening up probably wouldn't help much economically, as tourism is on its back everywhere else.

    A good place to be at the moment.

    Yup. Summer on the way too.

    Ms Adern was dealt a good hand but played it brilliantly re Covid. Fair play top marks. Her landslide was inevitable from a grateful nation.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited October 2020
    DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    Know what you mean. But for me the episode towards its end when Priam petitions Achilles for the body of his dead son, Hector, is one of the most moving moments in all literature.
  • Nigelb said:

    Crap. I hate it when this happens.
    (One of last year’s laureates for medicine.)

    https://twitter.com/FredrikJutfelt/status/1316992237939658753

    Isn't that graphic from a Trafalgar press release?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    @Malmesbury

    A conditional formatting on your regional R numbers to show <1 as green and >1 as red would be quite interesting I reckon? Just a random suggestion.

    Also a consistent number of decimal places would be easier to follow.

    :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Nigelb said:

    Crap. I hate it when this happens.
    (One of last year’s laureates for medicine.)

    https://twitter.com/FredrikJutfelt/status/1316992237939658753

    Isn't that graphic from a Trafalgar press release?
    Might as well be.
  • Nigelb said:

    Crap. I hate it when this happens.
    (One of last year’s laureates for medicine.)

    https://twitter.com/FredrikJutfelt/status/1316992237939658753

    I'm not qualified to judge the evidence here, but it looks like pretty shameful conduct. There are too many incentives for bad behaviour in science, and few disincentives.

    (Google Mohamed El Naschie for an egregious case, one I remember well from when it first broke.)

    --AS
  • Alistair said:



    You think 1% of the young end up in hospital with covid ?

    Because I'm not seeing reports of school pupils and students doing so.

    Or for that matter their parents and lecturers.

    Georgia.

    18-29 year olds
    84803 cases
    2041 hospitalisations

    10-17 year olds
    20095 cases
    281 hospitalisations

    5-9
    5686 cases
    59 hospitalisations.

    All of those age groups above 1% hospitalisation.
    I'm looking for UK numbers.

    We've had thousands, possibly tens of thousands of students infected, in recent weeks.

    How many have required medical treatment / hospitalised / died ?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    You could always amuse yourself by spotting glitches in the matrix of oral composition. One of the best is the occurrence of the exact same long sequence of kills on two occasions in the Iliad (1 Greek, 1 Trojan, 1 Greek, 3 Trojans, 1 Greek, 24 Trojans). Both build up to the aristeia of a Greek hero (Patroclus, Achilles), and culminate in the killing of a major Trojan champion (Sarpedon, Hector), with both sequences initiated by the death of an obscure Greek bearing the same name - Schedios - who is twice killed by the same Trojan, Hector...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Nigelb said:

    This is just stupid, especially when the support given to those told to self isolate is deeply inadequate.

    https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1317496694808956928

    How many will be deleting the app this weekend?
    How many haven't downloaded the app because they knew this or some other stupidity would happen.

    At least no one from PHE hasn't left the entire dataset on a memory stick on a train yet.
  • For those following the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) debate, John Ioannidis new paper is up on WHO:

    https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

    The rate is 0.23% (with 0.05% for < 70)

    iirc Ferguson's model (still being used by SAGE as far as I know, and the basis for the Whitty graph of doom graph) is based on a IFR an order of magnitude higher.

    Hang on am I understanding this correctly?

    We're closing down the country for an illness that kills 0.23% of people it infects...is that really what the figures say?

    That can't be right.

    It’s not.
    That’s rather the point.

    However, those who want to believe it will believe it with total credulousness. I mean, look at how they continue to unquestioningly follow Gupta.
    Fair enough, what is wrong with that report and what are the correct figures?
    There's a summary of a bunch of estimates here:



    As with all scientific findings, there's a lot of fuzziness between different studies. None of them are pointing towards Ioaniddis's numbers, though.

    The outcomes in Italy, Spain, Arizona, Brazil, New York, and a whole bunch of areas around the world don't march with an IFR of 0.05% in all under 70s.

    He cherry-picks studies that aren't representative of the population.
    He deliberately excludes healthcare workers from his findings, for some reason.
    His search strategy was inadequate and incomplete (and then excluded, by as little as one day outside his range in a couple of cases, data that was completely divergent with his conclusion)
    He underestimated the number of deaths in the studies he did use (by such things as taking cases where the outcome was not yet complete and reporting only deaths that had happened so far, and not deaths that occurred after the original time of writing from the same infections)

    Stuff like that (and all of the above was raised by reviewers in previous attempts to get it published)
    So if I am reading those graphs correctly after several glasses of wine then it is around 8x worse than flu on average for all age profiles.

    Not that the comparison to flu really matters, we know it is worse. The important thing to consider is whether it is bad enough to destroy the economy over.

    If it is really <1% IFR then come on...it's crazy isn't it?</p>
    I think this is a reasonable discussion to have, but I also think you're underestimating the societal impact of say 1% fatality in the population. We can assume that at least that many go through hospital (probably 5 times as many) and so we're looking at patients piled up on trolleys throughout hospitals and outside in makeshift tents, makeshift morgues, and not enough time or space to bury the dead. It would be more deaths than WW2, in a much shorter space of time.

    I think it really is quite sensible to take drastic action to avoid this, *if* one is confident that treatments or a vaccine are coming, so that the actions are temporary. My view is that they are indeed coming. But I accept that reasonable people can disagree on this.

    --AS
    Well there are no good moves from here, each decision is going to cost something, lives or economy or both..

    Also I am assuming it will be less than 1% deaths and also it will be spread over 3-4 years. I am thinking 0.5% overall of those that catch it will die and around 50% of the population in total getting it at all.

    So we're looking at around 0.25% of the total population dying over 4 years, so around 40k people per year.

    There's about 600k deaths on average in the UK every year, so it will be around a 6.7% rise for a few years. That's assuming many of those that die would not have done anyway, so maybe take a few percentage off for that....so it will be around 5% extra a year for a few years.

    It's bad yes, but should we shut everything down for this hoping for a vaccine? I don't know.

    It's quite macabre totting up the numbers like this, but I think in the current situation some analysis of the numbers is needed.
    Yes, I see what you mean, but I think 40k a year is significantly too optimistic, considering that more than that have already died this year despite strong social restrictions in Apr-May, and ongoing to a lesser degree. Also consider that immunity may be short-lived (we just don't know yet, it could go either way) in which case it would keep rolling on year after year. And Robert's point, made well and often here, that such deaths would change behaviour in an economically-ruinous way, even if there's no official lockdown.

    It's certainly something to weigh carefully, but all in all it seems fairly clearly to land on the side of social restrictions and damaging the economy (some of it permanent damage, and certainly some unfortunate people will have livelihoods ruined, but with luck most of the damage is reversible), until a vaccine arrives. If no vaccine is coming, the calculation surely has to be at least somewhat different, but immunologists seem pretty confident that this is a vaccine-susceptible virus.

    --AS
    Yes my numbers could be massively out, it's just a back of the packet of fags calculation.

    If we've already had 40k this year purely from COVID in people that wouldn't have died anyway then yes the numbers are too optimistic.

    Perhaps it is so contagious that we'd have the 160k extra deaths, but all in one year and then it would be finished. I would be interested to see how areas like Bergamo do with a second wave, perhaps they have already had enough cases to have herd immunity already. I see London is doing better this time around for example.

    I take issue with the idea that people changing their behaviour themselves or be dictated to by governments have the same cost financially and personally.

    Millions of people weighing up the risk/reward themselves is preferable to the state deciding it all for us. Like central planning versus the free market, but with health thrown in to the mix.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Crap. I hate it when this happens.
    (One of last year’s laureates for medicine.)

    https://twitter.com/FredrikJutfelt/status/1316992237939658753

    Isn't that graphic from a Trafalgar press release?
    Might as well be.
    Thing that surprises me is NOT that someone would falsify research, but that the vetting process for Nobel nominations and awards would NOT detect what is (apparently) obvious on the face of the docs referenced in the tweet.
  • DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    Know what you mean. But for me the episode towards its end when Priam petitions Achilles for the body of his dead son, Hector, is one of the most moving moments in all literature.
    The dog Argos recognizing Odysseus after 20 years.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    Know what you mean. But for me the episode towards its end when Priam petitions Achilles for the body of his dead son, Hector, is one of the most moving moments in all literature.
    The dog Argos recognizing Odysseus after 20 years.
    ... is also pretty good.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    edited October 2020
    Best wishes to @LadyG.

    I have gone through something similar. We all find our own ways of holding on. For me it has been the need to look after my children. What has made these last months so difficult is that I have been separated from some of them and have been unable to help, indeed, have felt like the problem.

    Hence pouring out some of my worries about Daughter on here.

    I hope you find the help you need. But there are lots of us here who wish you better, whatever other differences we have. And I hope that will be of some help.

    You are not alone.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Nigelb said:

    Crap. I hate it when this happens.
    (One of last year’s laureates for medicine.)

    https://twitter.com/FredrikJutfelt/status/1316992237939658753

    When was the last time one of these things was revoked? The article seemed convincing enough that there was rampant forgery of data.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Foxy said:

    There does not seem to be a second wave of deaths in Sweden at the moment. Surely if that doesn't happen the case for continual lockdowns is over?

    Cases are rising there and local governments putting new restrictions down.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/10/14/sweden-students-told-to-stop-partying-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/
    Deaths still counted on one hand.
  • LadyG said:

    Guys, girls, others!

    Fascinating to hear all these stories, from The Union Divvie to Doug Seal to Northern Monkey, Beverly d (spelling?), NigelB, Foxy, and Casino, and on, and everyone. My sincere thanks. This is genuinely appreciated and you are genuinely helping a newt painter in a crisis, So, thankyou, from me. I have been down before, even nihilistic - for years - but this odd desire to glug a tankard of hemlock is scary and new.

    Another weird symptom is this: that I keep falling asleep at the weirdest moments. Not just late afternoon or after dinner, like some average old bint, but at 11.30am or just now. Like the body wants to switch off, just in case.

    Very peculiar.

    One upside: I've been similarly honest on Whatsapp and the most unexpected of friends (who seems entirely fortunate and in control) has just messaged back saying Yes, this last week he has been the same. Bizarre, frightening moments of suicidality.

    !!

    It kinda helps. I hope I have helped him in return.

    We really are all in this together, and I trust, even though this sounds trite, that together we really will all pull through.




    How about travelling around the country with socially distanced meetings with other PBers.

    There might even be a book in it for one of your associates - a modern day Daniel Defoe experience.
  • DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    You could always amuse yourself by spotting glitches in the matrix of oral composition. One of the best is the occurrence of the exact same long sequence of kills on two occasions in the Iliad (1 Greek, 1 Trojan, 1 Greek, 3 Trojans, 1 Greek, 24 Trojans). Both build up to the aristeia of a Greek hero (Patroclus, Achilles), and culminate in the killing of a major Trojan champion (Sarpedon, Hector), with both sequences initiated by the death of an obscure Greek bearing the same name - Schedios - who is twice killed by the same Trojan, Hector...
    Perhaps different guys with same name, like Pliny/Pitt/Bush the Elder & Younger?

    How's THAT for uninformed commentary . . . in best PB tradition!
  • Foxy said:

    There does not seem to be a second wave of deaths in Sweden at the moment. Surely if that doesn't happen the case for continual lockdowns is over?

    Cases are rising there and local governments putting new restrictions down.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/10/14/sweden-students-told-to-stop-partying-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/
    Deaths still counted on one hand.
    Like everywhere else in Europe other than a couple of failing countries.

    Germany is still single figures isn't it, with the 90m population
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    Know what you mean. But for me the episode towards its end when Priam petitions Achilles for the body of his dead son, Hector, is one of the most moving moments in all literature.
    The dog Argos recognizing Odysseus after 20 years.
    Yes, that gets me bad.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    LadyG said:

    Guys, girls, others!

    Fascinating to hear all these stories, from The Union Divvie to Doug Seal to Northern Monkey, Beverly d (spelling?), NigelB, Foxy, and Casino, and on, and everyone. My sincere thanks. This is genuinely appreciated and you are genuinely helping a newt painter in a crisis, So, thankyou, from me. I have been down before, even nihilistic - for years - but this odd desire to glug a tankard of hemlock is scary and new.

    Another weird symptom is this: that I keep falling asleep at the weirdest moments. Not just late afternoon or after dinner, like some average old bint, but at 11.30am or just now. Like the body wants to switch off, just in case.

    Very peculiar.

    One upside: I've been similarly honest on Whatsapp and the most unexpected of friends (who seems entirely fortunate and in control) has just messaged back saying Yes, this last week he has been the same. Bizarre, frightening moments of suicidality.

    !!

    It kinda helps. I hope I have helped him in return.

    We really are all in this together, and I trust, even though this sounds trite, that together we really will all pull through.




    I was once told by a GP, during one of my periodic crises, that suicidal ideation was not uncommon.

    So, you are certainly not alone.

    But deffo talk to your GP next week.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    Guys, girls, others!

    Fascinating to hear all these stories, from The Union Divvie to Doug Seal to Northern Monkey, Beverly d (spelling?), NigelB, Foxy, and Casino, and on, and everyone. My sincere thanks. This is genuinely appreciated and you are genuinely helping a newt painter in a crisis, So, thankyou, from me. I have been down before, even nihilistic - for years - but this odd desire to glug a tankard of hemlock is scary and new.

    Another weird symptom is this: that I keep falling asleep at the weirdest moments. Not just late afternoon or after dinner, like some average old bint, but at 11.30am or just now. Like the body wants to switch off, just in case.

    Very peculiar.

    One upside: I've been similarly honest on Whatsapp and the most unexpected of friends (who seems entirely fortunate and in control) has just messaged back saying Yes, this last week he has been the same. Bizarre, frightening moments of suicidality.

    !!

    It kinda helps. I hope I have helped him in return.

    We really are all in this together, and I trust, even though this sounds trite, that together we really will all pull through.




    How about travelling around the country with socially distanced meetings with other PBers.

    There might even be a book in it for one of your associates - a modern day Daniel Defoe experience.
    There is something in that. I am already planning a road trip next week - out of town - thank F - to see some friends and family I haven't seen since Covid began in March.

    I think one of my problems is that I am used to a life of endless travel and movement.

    I don't mind solitude, I even like it (within reason) but the sense of being stuck, with no obvious route out, is quite desolating, in an unexpected way. We are all jailed, however benignly.

    I nearly kicked a pigeon to death today. I didn't do it, obviously. I am civilised. But this stupid ugly filthy pointless rat of a bird was squatting in my way and I got this upwelling of near-impotent violence.

    Lucky bastard waddled off just in time.

    O Tempora, O Mores.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Guys, girls, others!

    Fascinating to hear all these stories, from The Union Divvie to Doug Seal to Northern Monkey, Beverly d (spelling?), NigelB, Foxy, and Casino, and on, and everyone. My sincere thanks. This is genuinely appreciated and you are genuinely helping a newt painter in a crisis, So, thankyou, from me. I have been down before, even nihilistic - for years - but this odd desire to glug a tankard of hemlock is scary and new.

    Another weird symptom is this: that I keep falling asleep at the weirdest moments. Not just late afternoon or after dinner, like some average old bint, but at 11.30am or just now. Like the body wants to switch off, just in case.

    Very peculiar.

    One upside: I've been similarly honest on Whatsapp and the most unexpected of friends (who seems entirely fortunate and in control) has just messaged back saying Yes, this last week he has been the same. Bizarre, frightening moments of suicidality.

    !!

    It kinda helps. I hope I have helped him in return.

    We really are all in this together, and I trust, even though this sounds trite, that together we really will all pull through.




    How about travelling around the country with socially distanced meetings with other PBers.

    There might even be a book in it for one of your associates - a modern day Daniel Defoe experience.
    There is something in that. I am already planning a road trip next week - out of town - thank F - to see some friends and family I haven't seen since Covid began in March.

    I think one of my problems is that I am used to a life of endless travel and movement.

    I don't mind solitude, I even like it (within reason) but the sense of being stuck, with no obvious route out, is quite desolating, in an unexpected way. We are all jailed, however benignly.

    I nearly kicked a pigeon to death today. I didn't do it, obviously. I am civilised. But this stupid ugly filthy pointless rat of a bird was squatting in my way and I got this upwelling of near-impotent violence.

    Lucky bastard waddled off just in time.

    O Tempora, O Mores.
    Perhaps the pigeon was going though its own crisis? You could be birds of a feather!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    You could always amuse yourself by spotting glitches in the matrix of oral composition. One of the best is the occurrence of the exact same long sequence of kills on two occasions in the Iliad (1 Greek, 1 Trojan, 1 Greek, 3 Trojans, 1 Greek, 24 Trojans). Both build up to the aristeia of a Greek hero (Patroclus, Achilles), and culminate in the killing of a major Trojan champion (Sarpedon, Hector), with both sequences initiated by the death of an obscure Greek bearing the same name - Schedios - who is twice killed by the same Trojan, Hector...
    Perhaps different guys with same name, like Pliny/Pitt/Bush the Elder & Younger?

    How's THAT for uninformed commentary . . . in best PB tradition!
    They are the sons of different fathers (though both are Phocians), so our oral poet has that get-out clause. But given that this is the only occasion in the poem where the same hero kills a warrior of the same name more than once and initiates a multi-book narratological pattern, we are entitled to be a bit sceptical. The poet probably had a story sequence in mind that went something like 'Hector ascendant – Greek aristeia coming – major Greek hero kills major Trojan’, and he happened to choose the insignificant Schedios to kick it off. Then when he reached a point in the story for the pattern to repeat itself, he thought ‘How does that one begin again? Ah, that's right, “Hector kills Schedios” ... oh bugger!’

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Covid-19: Most vulnerable 'could get vaccine by Christmas'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-scotland-54573288

    If everything goes great we might be able to go to Cornwall on holiday next year (with masks) & by Christmas 2021 have the family around....

    Appreciate you are being a bit sarcastic but to respond seriously, we have just had a great week in Cornwall.

    I can confirm that Covid-19 has had no effect whatsoever on the beauty of the beaches. Mask use where required was 100% from all we saw. We had a great meal at St Petroc's Bistro in Padstow.

    Don't wait until next year, go now, is my advice!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Trump down to a 12% chance on 538 now.

    (Cf. the 28.6% chance they gave him just ahead of the 2016 election).
  • DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.

    The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.

    Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.

    See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes

    No we can't. America's borders are closed to the British.

    As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
    On my way back from Santa Fe, I went via Barstow. That's traditionally the halfway stop between Vegas and LA, where one stops for an In'n'Out Burger and to stretch one's legs. Sunday, 3pm, it's usually heaving as the weekend crew head back from Vegas. When we were passing through three weeks ago, it was dead.

    Californians aren't doing the weekend trip.
    It is, of course, where the drugs began to take hold...
    I've never read Fear and Loathing,

    Should I?
    Fck me, yes. PG Wodehouse at his best level of funny.

    ETA and the only opening line which will ever be competitive with "Call me Ishmael."
    I'm trying to read David Bowie's 100 favourite books before all this is more or less over. I'm on the Iliad and have decided Homer needed a good editor. The endless battle scenes in the middle....I love a good war story as much as the next man but....urgh....
    You could always amuse yourself by spotting glitches in the matrix of oral composition. One of the best is the occurrence of the exact same long sequence of kills on two occasions in the Iliad (1 Greek, 1 Trojan, 1 Greek, 3 Trojans, 1 Greek, 24 Trojans). Both build up to the aristeia of a Greek hero (Patroclus, Achilles), and culminate in the killing of a major Trojan champion (Sarpedon, Hector), with both sequences initiated by the death of an obscure Greek bearing the same name - Schedios - who is twice killed by the same Trojan, Hector...
    Perhaps different guys with same name, like Pliny/Pitt/Bush the Elder & Younger?

    How's THAT for uninformed commentary . . . in best PB tradition!
    They are the sons of different fathers (though both are Phocians), so our oral poet has that get-out clause. But given that this is the only occasion in the poem where the same hero kills a warrior of the same name more than once and initiates a multi-book narratological pattern, we are entitled to be a bit sceptical. The poet probably had a story sequence in mind that went something like 'Hector ascendant – Greek aristeia coming – major Greek hero kills major Trojan’, and he happened to choose the insignificant Schedios to kick it off. Then when he reached a point in the story for the pattern to repeat itself, he thought ‘How does that one begin again? Ah, that's right, “Hector kills Schedios” ... oh bugger!’

    Well, I saw Lon Chaney walking with the Queen
    Doing the Werewolves of London
    I saw Lon Chaney, Jr. walking with the Queen
    Doing the Werewolves of London
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Trump down to a 12% chance on 538 now.

    (Cf. the 28.6% chance they gave him just ahead of the 2016 election).

    What happens when a populist becomes unpopular.
  • Nigelb said:
    Starts with breaking up the EU . . . which leads to dissolution of United Federation of Planets . . .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    U.S. records over 70,000 cases in one day for the first time since July

    NYTimes
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717

    Reading the replies to @LadyG has got me a bit emotional.

    What an uplifting place PB can be sometimes!

    Hats off to Smithson Snr and Jnr and to TSE and others for providing this place.

    A PB Zoom meet up post US election might be fun.

    Any chance of a NoJam prediction contest for POTUS, The prize being bragging rights?
  • Trump down to a 12% chance on 538 now.

    (Cf. the 28.6% chance they gave him just ahead of the 2016 election).

    What happens when a populist becomes unpopular.
    Ask the ghost of Joe McCarthy.

    Anyway, Trumpsky says he may move out of US if he loses (YEAH) and given his "love" of Scotland - or rather Scottish real estate - would guess that he just might end up seeking asylum with his good pal the PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Trump down to a 12% chance on 538 now.

    (Cf. the 28.6% chance they gave him just ahead of the 2016 election).

    What happens when a populist becomes unpopular.
    Ask the ghost of Joe McCarthy.

    Anyway, Trumpsky says he may move out of US if he loses (YEAH) and given his "love" of Scotland - or rather Scottish real estate - would guess that he just might end up seeking asylum with his good pal the PM.
    The PM of Russia?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Might be something to do with this.
    (The sentiment, rather than the ad itself, though it is rather good.)

    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1317195767036186625
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    Trump down to a 12% chance on 538 now.

    (Cf. the 28.6% chance they gave him just ahead of the 2016 election).

    What happens when a populist becomes unpopular.
    Anyway, Trumpsky says he may move out of US if he loses (YEAH).
    Even trying to picture it from the point of view of someone who likes him, I cannot imagine why he would possibly say such a thing. If he weren't joking he looks petty and bitter, transactional even in love of country, and if he was joking where's the humour in the idea for his supporters?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Folk have existed on Earth for thousands of generations. Earth is something like 4 or 5 billion years old. But the star which it orbits is made of leftovers from previous generations of stars. So we are made of stardust. Dark matter and dark energy contribute very much more to the energy in the universe than matter as we know it. Slowly by fits and starts this hugeness has, over a long time. contrived to produce homo sapiens, and probably other self-aware creatures. Each of us manifests a high degree of order with a concomitant brief existence. We are infinitesimal really, but given faculties we can do things. It's almost as if there is a God who is so omnipotent that he set in motion the possibility that homo saps should get down and dirty, muck about, and messily experience the vasty vastness he set in motion.
  • Nigelb said:
    He should already be filing VAT for sales in EU. And when it comes to VAT, the EU has the most stupid rules, especially for digital goods.

    Anybody who sells digital goods in the EU will tell you they managed to come with the worst possible system ever, supposedly to combat the likes of Amazon, but all they screwed were the little man.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Best wishes to @LadyG.

    I have gone through something similar. We all find our own ways of holding on. For me it has been the need to look after my children. What has made these last months so difficult is that I have been separated from some of them and have been unable to help, indeed, have felt like the problem.

    Hence pouring out some of my worries about Daughter on here.

    I hope you find the help you need. But there are lots of us here who wish you better, whatever other differences we have. And I hope that will be of some help.

    You are not alone.

    It really does disturb me for both of you and many others

    Please stay the course and seek professional help through the Samaritans or your GP

    It is very close to home in so far as my eldest is in crisis with somatoform and PTSD, so much so that he has stopped work, driving and living any kind of life without these awful daily shadows of mental health

    He is under one of the leading mental health professionals in Canada and has been offered ECT which is a very controversial treatment but we can only pray he finds a way through.

    There are so many mental health issues it is frightening and everybody involved in mental care has my full support and understanding

    My best wishes to both of you
  • kle4 said:

    Trump down to a 12% chance on 538 now.

    (Cf. the 28.6% chance they gave him just ahead of the 2016 election).

    What happens when a populist becomes unpopular.
    Anyway, Trumpsky says he may move out of US if he loses (YEAH).
    Even trying to picture it from the point of view of someone who likes him, I cannot imagine why he would possibly say such a thing. If he weren't joking he looks petty and bitter, transactional even in love of country, and if he was joking where's the humour in the idea for his supporters?
    Best thing is remembering how back in 2001, Republicans had fun laughing their asses off at dipshit Democrats who moaned about how they were gonna move to Canada.

    NOW we've got THE great horses ass of the early 20th century moaning about how he'll move if he loses.

    Which proves just what a loser he really is, regardless of how the election turns out.
  • Covid-19: Most vulnerable 'could get vaccine by Christmas'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-scotland-54573288

    If everything goes great we might be able to go to Cornwall on holiday next year (with masks) & by Christmas 2021 have the family around....

    Appreciate you are being a bit sarcastic but to respond seriously, we have just had a great week in Cornwall.

    I can confirm that Covid-19 has had no effect whatsoever on the beauty of the beaches. Mask use where required was 100% from all we saw. We had a great meal at St Petroc's Bistro in Padstow.

    Don't wait until next year, go now, is my advice!
    It might have sounded sarcastic, but that is actually what the article says.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Foxy said:

    Reading the replies to @LadyG has got me a bit emotional.

    What an uplifting place PB can be sometimes!

    Hats off to Smithson Snr and Jnr and to TSE and others for providing this place.

    A PB Zoom meet up post US election might be fun.

    Any chance of a NoJam prediction contest for POTUS, The prize being bragging rights?
    First dibs on Biden?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    That's the NHS app done then.

  • Foxy said:
    Why? Because they are all traitors who shouldn't be allowed to vote. God bless freedom!
  • dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Reading the replies to @LadyG has got me a bit emotional.

    What an uplifting place PB can be sometimes!

    Hats off to Smithson Snr and Jnr and to TSE and others for providing this place.

    A PB Zoom meet up post US election might be fun.

    Any chance of a NoJam prediction contest for POTUS, The prize being bragging rights?
    First dibs on Biden?
    Joe or Hunter?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    When I saw Gordon Brown on the news a few days ago, he looked haggard, broken, hunched and old. I felt sorry for him.

    But, Tony Blair looks good, tanned and suave. I expect he is indestructible.
  • When I saw Gordon Brown on the news a few days ago, he looked haggard, broken, hunched and old. I felt sorry for him.

    But, Tony Blair looks good, tanned and suave. I expect he is indestructible.
    Portrait of Dorian Gray
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited October 2020
    If those numbers hold to any sort of degree, it’s game over. Women just seem to like Big Joe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Reading the replies to @LadyG has got me a bit emotional.

    What an uplifting place PB can be sometimes!

    Hats off to Smithson Snr and Jnr and to TSE and others for providing this place.

    A PB Zoom meet up post US election might be fun.

    Any chance of a NoJam prediction contest for POTUS, The prize being bragging rights?
    First dibs on Biden?
    I was thinking Electoral Votes with number of States (and districts) as a tie breaker.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    :lol:

    I seem to recall a bit of a fuss when Blair turned up at PMQs with glasses back in the day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited October 2020
    Another excellent Politico Magazine article, this time on the Latino vote.
    The point that Trump is exporting (probably not with great success) his Florida messaging to other states is an interesting one.
    Healthcare is an exceptionally important issue.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/17/voto-latino-interview-2020-election-429857

    FWIW, I’ve been very impressed by the quality of Politicos’s stuff this cycle.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    Nigelb said:

    Another excellent Politico Magazine article, this time on the Latino vote.
    The point that Trump is exporting (probably not with great success) his Florida messaging to other states is an interesting one.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/17/voto-latino-interview-2020-election-429857

    FWIW, I’ve been very impressed by the quality of Politicos’s stuff this cycle.

    There was an interesting piece in The Atlantic too on the Latino vote.

    https://twitter.com/TheAtlantic/status/1317483745721671688?s=19
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Reading the replies to @LadyG has got me a bit emotional.

    What an uplifting place PB can be sometimes!

    Hats off to Smithson Snr and Jnr and to TSE and others for providing this place.

    A PB Zoom meet up post US election might be fun.

    Any chance of a NoJam prediction contest for POTUS, The prize being bragging rights?
    First dibs on Biden?
    I was thinking Electoral Votes with number of States (and districts) as a tie breaker.
    Darn it. After predicting the NZ majority I thought I was on a roll!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    It sounds like I got out just in time :)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Apparently the concrete eye-sore in what was Piccadilly Gardens has been improved by grafitti

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/we-can-understand-anger-behind-19115349
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited October 2020
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another excellent Politico Magazine article, this time on the Latino vote.
    The point that Trump is exporting (probably not with great success) his Florida messaging to other states is an interesting one.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/17/voto-latino-interview-2020-election-429857

    FWIW, I’ve been very impressed by the quality of Politicos’s stuff this cycle.

    There was an interesting piece in The Atlantic too on the Latino vote.

    https://twitter.com/TheAtlantic/status/1317483745721671688?s=19
    Yes, I read that. It’s interesting, but I think the Politico one better.
    The Democrats seem to be beginning to get their act together at the state level, and this is part of it.
    Both that, and demographics in the Latino electorate will magnify the effect over the next couple of electoral cycles, probably.

    Texas is the big prize.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited October 2020

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
  • The Mail really have it in for Hancock...

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1317579650353319936?s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Reading the replies to @LadyG has got me a bit emotional.

    What an uplifting place PB can be sometimes!

    Hats off to Smithson Snr and Jnr and to TSE and others for providing this place.

    A PB Zoom meet up post US election might be fun.

    Any chance of a NoJam prediction contest for POTUS, The prize being bragging rights?
    First dibs on Biden?
    LOL

    I claim dibs on Graham getting the boot - if only as I’ve been foolish enough to put a bit of cash on it, at less than stellar odds.
  • IF the Republic of the North gets off the ground AND confederates with Cornwall plus East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere THEN Boris Johnson fiefdom will be reduced to East Anglia, (most of) the Home Counties and the Great Wen of London.
  • The Mail really have it in for Hancock...

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1317579650353319936?s=19

    Which one pictured is the MP? OR is it both?
  • Apparently the concrete eye-sore in what was Piccadilly Gardens has been improved by grafitti

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/we-can-understand-anger-behind-19115349

    Except we should be trying different tactics and strategies to see what works best.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Trump down to a 12% chance on 538 now.

    (Cf. the 28.6% chance they gave him just ahead of the 2016 election).

    What happens when a populist becomes unpopular.
    Ask the ghost of Joe McCarthy.

    Anyway, Trumpsky says he may move out of US if he loses (YEAH) and given his "love" of Scotland - or rather Scottish real estate - would guess that he just might end up seeking asylum with his good pal the PM.

    They can both sod off to Moscow. I wonder if Philby & Burgess's flats are still available?
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
    There are plenty of southerners on here who do not realise that we are heading towards a very divided country.

    Greater Manc population is almost the same as Wales with a much larger economy.

    We are not far from an anti-south party doing very very very well around here,
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Apparently the concrete eye-sore in what was Piccadilly Gardens has been improved by grafitti

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/we-can-understand-anger-behind-19115349

    Except we should be trying different tactics and strategies to see what works best.
    I put a post up 3 or 4 days ago saying exactly the same thing. We need to investigate mitigation strategies because the bug is going nowhere
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    IF the Republic of the North gets off the ground AND confederates with Cornwall plus East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere THEN Boris Johnson fiefdom will be reduced to East Anglia, (most of) the Home Counties and the Great Wen of London.

    Which would probably make a lot of his supporters very happy indeed as the True England would be reborn :D:D
  • LadyG said:

    Guys, girls, others!

    Fascinating to hear all these stories, from The Union Divvie to Doug Seal to Northern Monkey, Beverly d (spelling?), NigelB, Foxy, and Casino, and on, and everyone. My sincere thanks. This is genuinely appreciated and you are genuinely helping a newt painter in a crisis, So, thankyou, from me. I have been down before, even nihilistic - for years - but this odd desire to glug a tankard of hemlock is scary and new.

    Another weird symptom is this: that I keep falling asleep at the weirdest moments. Not just late afternoon or after dinner, like some average old bint, but at 11.30am or just now. Like the body wants to switch off, just in case.

    Very peculiar.

    One upside: I've been similarly honest on Whatsapp and the most unexpected of friends (who seems entirely fortunate and in control) has just messaged back saying Yes, this last week he has been the same. Bizarre, frightening moments of suicidality.

    !!

    It kinda helps. I hope I have helped him in return.

    We really are all in this together, and I trust, even though this sounds trite, that together we really will all pull through.




    Suicide ideation and sleeping a lot are classic symptoms of depression, unfortunately. Definitely get on the blower to your GP asap.

    There’ll be thousands of people in the same boat. But you can get through it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
    There are plenty of southerners on here who do not realise that we are heading towards a very divided country.

    Greater Manc population is almost the same as Wales with a much larger economy.

    We are not far from an anti-south party doing very very very well around here,
    Perhaps people do not see that because the same two parties as always continue to dominate as they have for 100 years. Sure, that doesn't mean they will continue to do so, but electorally where's the sign people are yearning for an anti-south party, or for one of the big ones to be more explicitly anti-south? They seem to be rewarding the same old shower.

    It feels like how some used to insist people were becoming less and less engaged in politics even as turnout went up 4 GEs in a row (from a very low ebb, yes, but still a sign people were not becoming less engaged), or how sick they were of the big two when, outside Scotland, their share of the vote was going up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
    There are plenty of southerners on here who do not realise that we are heading towards a very divided country.

    Greater Manc population is almost the same as Wales with a much larger economy.

    We are not far from an anti-south party doing very very very well around here,
    It is similar up in the NE. Although we are avoiding confrontation thus far. This has been bubbling under for decades.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
    There are plenty of southerners on here who do not realise that we are heading towards a very divided country.

    Greater Manc population is almost the same as Wales with a much larger economy.

    We are not far from an anti-south party doing very very very well around here,
    Perhaps people do not see that because the same two parties as always continue to dominate as they have for 100 years. Sure, that doesn't mean they will continue to do so, but electorally where's the sign people are yearning for an anti-south party, or for one of the big ones to be more explicitly anti-south?

    Brexit.

    Definitely driven in part by resentment and anger from being left behind.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    In today’s policy’s there is always someone else to blame. Now it’s points on a compass. 🤷‍♂️
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
    There are plenty of southerners on here who do not realise that we are heading towards a very divided country.

    Greater Manc population is almost the same as Wales with a much larger economy.

    We are not far from an anti-south party doing very very very well around here,
    Perhaps people do not see that because the same two parties as always continue to dominate as they have for 100 years. Sure, that doesn't mean they will continue to do so, but electorally where's the sign people are yearning for an anti-south party, or for one of the big ones to be more explicitly anti-south?

    Brexit.

    Definitely driven in part by resentment and anger from being left behind.
    "Red Wall" also. A rejection of a deeply Londoncentric Labour which failed to heed the north.
    From which the Tories, (not their new found Northern Mps), but the Johnson/Cummings clique, appear to be drawing all the wrong lessons.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
    There are plenty of southerners on here who do not realise that we are heading towards a very divided country.

    Greater Manc population is almost the same as Wales with a much larger economy.

    We are not far from an anti-south party doing very very very well around here,
    Perhaps people do not see that because the same two parties as always continue to dominate as they have for 100 years. Sure, that doesn't mean they will continue to do so, but electorally where's the sign people are yearning for an anti-south party, or for one of the big ones to be more explicitly anti-south?

    Brexit.

    Definitely driven in part by resentment and anger from being left behind.
    "Red Wall" also. A rejection of a deeply Londoncentric Labour which failed to heed the north.
    From which the Tories, (not their new found Northern Mps), but the Johnson/Cummings clique, appear to be drawing all the wrong lessons.
    Yep. It is not just Scotland that is becoming a disunited kingdom.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:
    So really clear that those ruling us are a million miles from what we want

    Not sustainable

    Viva Le Republic de Mancunia
    On which subject here is Jen Williams' digest of the week.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/melodrama-melancholy-madness-inside-greater-19122824

    "The discontent successfully exploited by the Conservatives during last year’s general election in areas like this didn’t vanish when the polls closed and it was certainly apparent this week.

    “It’s been slowly brewing for decades,” says one official of the resentment that has erupted in the past few days, a sentiment by no means unique to Greater Manchester.

    “Covid has really been the last straw.” "
    There are plenty of southerners on here who do not realise that we are heading towards a very divided country.

    Greater Manc population is almost the same as Wales with a much larger economy.

    We are not far from an anti-south party doing very very very well around here,
    Perhaps people do not see that because the same two parties as always continue to dominate as they have for 100 years. Sure, that doesn't mean they will continue to do so, but electorally where's the sign people are yearning for an anti-south party, or for one of the big ones to be more explicitly anti-south?

    Brexit.

    Definitely driven in part by resentment and anger from being left behind.
    "Red Wall" also. A rejection of a deeply Londoncentric Labour which failed to heed the north.
    From which the Tories, (not their new found Northern Mps), but the Johnson/Cummings clique, appear to be drawing all the wrong lessons.
    Yep. It is not just Scotland that is becoming a disunited kingdom.
    But the real question is who is going to get there first?
  • Any new polls.

    And well done to Labor in New Zealand, this will be the start of a centre-left resurgence continuing with Labour getting back into Government here in 2024
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited October 2020
    Some people (not on PB) seem to be saying that a national lockdown is a good idea simply because it wouldn't make those living in particular areas feel "singled out" so to speak. I have to say this is the most stupid argument I've ever heard in my life.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Lady G, sorry you have been feeling so down. It is pretty grim right now. I hope you feel better soon, with the support of loved ones. We all need to look out for each other.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Some people (not on PB) seem to be saying that a national lockdown is a good idea simply because it wouldn't make those living in particular areas feel "singled out" so to speak. I have to say this is the most stupid argument I've ever heard in my life.

    Speaking from the Northwest I 100% agree.

    On the other hand if we are to be locked down then during the lockdown period full lockdown support should be given to those banned by law from temporarily working.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    Any new polls.

    And well done to Labor in New Zealand, this will be the start of a centre-left resurgence continuing with Labour getting back into Government here in 2024

    I don't know if you've noticed, but the LOESS smooth on Wikipedia of GB opinion polls now has Labour and Tory as currently tied.

    https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
This discussion has been closed.