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The polling gets even better for Biden but Betfair punters remain cautious – politicalbetting.com
The polling gets even better for Biden but Betfair punters remain cautious – politicalbetting.com
Latest Biden-Trump polling average pic.twitter.com/EY9kkYxK6X
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Indeed, there is a whole South Korean saga about over diagnosis - and overtreatment - of slow growing, non-lethal cancers (thyroid) skewing not just the nation's cancer survival statistics, but its approach to treatment. To the detriment of patient care.
See https://www.minnpost.com/second-opinion/2014/11/thyroid-cancer-south-korea-cautionary-tale-about-dangers-overdiagnosis/
I've placed more money on Biden and his coat tails today via Betfair.
Mike is absolutely right about this. 2020 is NOTHING like 2016.
By popular vote if not electoral college votes this looks set to be a landslide between 1980 or 1984 levels.
It was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, albeit slightly overstating the GOP.
I would argue winning more than 350 EC votes is a landslide - in term of vote share, what do we think - a 15% lead?
Not that the UK can ever be accused of a similarly tilted system
At some point even Betfair is going to get this and there is going to be a lot of people trying to cover their positions.
Social media once again finds itself at the centre of controversy over bias and disinformation"
https://www.ft.com/content/0aa949e8-91ca-4cc3-b4fa-6af172bc9226
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1317171456984403975?s=19
And spread within the hospital is a problem.
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1317418863659798530?s=19
https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1317474414477324288?s=19
And its resulted in such devestaiting material as revelation that Joe Biden texted Hunter saying "I miss you, I love you".
The monstrosity that is triple lock pensions though ...
1 Home win
2 Draws
7 Away wins.
I've heard the absence of fans has led to more away wins. Is this true?
Similarly I think of a majority of 100+ as a landslide in the UK. There's no logic in that too.
Pointless too. For all the rallies and chants, were there any charges against Hillary, or any real attempt to bring them?
It’s quite ironic at the moment that Trump is berating Pompeo for not releasing all the Clinton emails even though he’s effectively in a total catch-22. The only way he can realistically release them is if they DON’T contain classified information compromising national security!
Hunter Biden is a pimple on the ass of creation. A troubled nincompoop, which is why Putinist keep bringing him up - and make ZERO mention of his late brother who had a much more respectable resume.
Fact that Republican twits keep on yammering re: HB is just another sign that they are in DEEP hole of there own making, and can see no way out except to keep digggggggggging.
Though I guess really is just that we all have at least one dipshit relative, and to paraphrase, if we think we don't it is because we are the dipshit.
So that holds up. The draws are very low too (The 2 today bring it closer to normal).
Plenty more goals too. Dunno if either of these applied to last season.
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
The rate is 0.23% (with 0.05% for < 70)
iirc Ferguson's model (still being used by SAGE as far as I know, and the basis for the Whitty graph of doom graph) is based on a IFR an order of magnitude higher.
That really helps on the idiot relative front. If not much else.
Jo and Rachel Johnson have a dipshit relative who is the PM.
“My guess is that George Soros is behind this counter-offensive… because he wants to create a socialist country,”
Used to be quite common back when folks used to joke, that two brothers ran away from home: one became a sailor, the other was elected Vice President - and neither were ever heard of again.
Going back seventy years:
>> 1940 FDR's first VP John Nance Garner, a conservative who did NOT support a 3rd term, was replaced by avid New Dealer (and former Republican) Henry Wallace.
>> 1944 when Wallace was dumped and replaced by Harry Truman, because many in Democratic establishment thought Wallace was a weirdo and potential electoral liability, and also because they feared (as it indeed transpired) that FDR might not survive a 4th term, and VP would end up in the White House.
>> 1956 there was speculation that Ike might dump Nixon as his running mate, fueled in part because the General was known to be less than enamored with Tricky Dick.
>> 1980 a year when IIRC there was no talk about President dumping his VP, in large measure because Mondale worked VERY hard at being a VERY loyal & supportive second banana
>> 1972 for which there is MUCH evidence (including from Nixon Tapes) that RN seriously considered dumping Spiro Agnew (who he considered a pushy idiot) in favor of former Democrat John Connolly (who he'd put in the Cabinet)
>> 1984 there was pressure from right-wing Republicans for Reagan to dump George Bush the Elder, but the Gipper decided against it.
>> 1996 similar situation to 1980
>> 2004 in his memoirs George Bush the Younger said he considered dumping Dick Cheney in order to "demonstrate that I was in charge". Of course he did NOT (to his own regret) thus demonstrating that it REALLY was the Cheney-Bush administration after all.
>> 2012 as noted on this thread, Obama was urged by some of his inner circle to give Biden the old heave-ho (with Hillary Clinton being the most likely replacement) but the President thought the better of it, and kept Joe on board.
>> 2020 there was some speculation (including by yours truly) that Trumpsky might dump Bobblehead.
>> 2004
>> 2012
It's also interesting to note that Ioannidis's figures (which he's been pushing since April at least, but had trouble getting accepted) and have received considerable criticism (eg https://hildabastian.net/index.php/91 and https://rapidreviewscovid19.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/p6tto8hl/release/1 in earlier attempts to get reviewed and published (comments like "RR:C19 Evidence Scale rating by reviewer:
Misleading. Serious flaws and errors in the methods and data render the study conclusions misinformative. The results and conclusions of the ideal study are at least as likely to conclude the opposite of its results and conclusions than agree. Decision-makers should not consider this evidence in any decision.") do seem rather discordant with actual death rates in many places around the world.
TobyYoungHatesRestrictions.orglockdownsceptics.org out of a morbid curiosity to see just what basic concept or fact Toby’s misunderstood or misrepresented recently, or what quixotic “solution” or denialism has been embraced today (we’ve had that if they pick enough holes in the Imperial report from March or Professor Ferguson’s record, we can abandon restrictions or would never have entered lockdown, and if we call enough people names it will fix everything (not even kidding)).Now, apparently, they’ve “proved” that only 28% of us are susceptible to coronavirus any more and 72% have either had it or have cross-immunity already.
”This is not far from herd immunity”.
No kidding. In fact, if only 2 in 7 people are vulnerable, then the R rate is divided by seven-over-two for the real reproduction rate of the virus in the wild. So if we’re experiencing an R of 1.2, then it would (without that level of immunity) actually be 1.2 x 3.5.
Wow. The amount of violating of restrictions and people socialising is up to what would have caused an R rate of 4.2 when we had no resistance. That’s considerably more interaction and socialising than we had back when there was no pandemic.
It’s such a relief to learn that we’d all gone back to normal (and further) without me even noticing.
(More seriously, he's getting closer and closer to going full-on antivaxxer, which could cause serious hassle if enough of his followers swallow it)
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/biden-campaign-lashes-out-new-york-post-429486
Think the reason Biden campaign did NOT ignore it, was because they realized that a) GOP was flogging a dead horse; and b) the re-warmed "scandal" would boomerang against Trumpsky, which indeed is exactly what's happened.
87% infection rate after a single choir meeting. 2% IFR - albeit when we knew less about treatment than we do now.
Also, it's good anecdotal evidence of the importance of viral load.
May have been mentioned already.
Leaked letter to a Senior Transport guy here in Wales suggests two week "fire break" from 1800 on Friday next. (Grauniad)
Worrying times. I'll report back on compliance.
BigG. will be spitting feathers until Johnson launches his own for England a fortnight later.
And how does Drakeford get out of it after 14 days
I think it's a growing problem for the world, actually, and I don't know what the remedy is. The internet is a kind of breeding ground for cults of belief, and it's actually quite disturbing. And, as I said the other day, I feel sorry for the victims: those who have bought into the scam arguments and can't let go. They must be experiencing such cognitive dissonance as the facts refuse to fit their beliefs, over and over. I wonder how they can be helped.
--AS
One of Kentucky's largest newspapers endorses McConnell's challenger
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521533-one-of-kentuckys-largest-newspapers-endorses-mcconnells-challenger
... The Lexington Herald-Leader, one of Kentucky’s largest newspapers, has endorsed Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)’s Democratic challenger Amy McGrath for the state’s senate seat.
The newspaper wrote in its endorsement that many people feel Kentucky’s senate race is “the most important contest in the country” next to the presidential election, “with the future of our democracy riding on the right choice.”
“During his 36 years in office, McConnell has made it perfectly clear that his only passion is the pursuit of power, his own and that of the Republican Party,” the paper said. “For that reason alone, we would endorse his opponent.
“Luckily for voters, McGrath, a former fighter pilot and public servant, would make an excellent senator who would actually put the needs and interests of Kentuckians above her own," it continued...
According to Toby Young and his people.
We're closing down the country for an illness that kills 0.23% of people it infects...is that really what the figures say?
That can't be right.
They would argue they are following the science, I guess.
The decision may be erroneous (maybe not) but at least they have been unequivocal. I will reserve judgement in case Johnson does the same, only later.
That’s rather the point.
However, those who want to believe it will believe it with total credulousness. I mean, look at how they continue to unquestioningly follow Gupta.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1317465601015750656?s=20
Seems risky re supreme court vote.
'If it hadn't been for those pesky RINOs and traitors....'
But that's not how it works.
What happens is that somewhere between 1% and 5% of people (depending on the demographic) who catch it end up in hospital. With the right treatments, most of these people recover.
But if two million people all got CV19 at once, then you'd end up with the health service being utterly swamped, and a large number of those people who went to hospital would end up dying.
Which is why even the herd immunity bunch want us to find a sustainable number of infections, then implement measures to get R down to 1, and then allow it to burn through the population.
Of course... given you still have to implement the measures required to bring R down to 1 in this scenario, and it might well take a couple of years to reach 60% of people having had Covid, and it means hospitals are swamped with CV19 patients for the duration, it does raise the question of why you don't simply implement the measures with a lower baseline level of Covid.
Because I'm not seeing reports of school pupils and students doing so.
Or for that matter their parents and lecturers.
On the other hand, if it's a representative sample of the population, and there are (say) one in 30 people infected at any one time (i.e. two and bit million), then you might well end up with IFRs north of 2%.
But here's the thing:
These things are all theoretical anyway, because countries shut down just as hard when there are no restrictions as when there are many.
Go to Nevada. Las Vegas is open. You can go and stay at the Bellagio or the Wynn or the Ritz Carlton (all Five Star hotels) for $120 a night. You can gamble and drink in bars and eat good food. And you can fly to Vegas for a fraction of the normal price.
The Vegas occupancy rate is normally 89%.
Yet it's a ghost town right now. People simply aren't going to Vegas (no matter how cheap it is) because they're scared of catching CV19. Irrespective of government diktat, behaviour is changed.
See: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/encore-at-wynn-las-vegas-low-demand-operating-hours-changes
So we're looking at a virus that kills around 0.5%-2.5% of those that it infects. And that is only if we are identifying everyone that catches it, it is probably lower in reality.
That seems not so dissimilar to the flu numbers and if these numbers are accurate I think that closing down the country for this virus is a massive mistake.
in Windsor and Maidenhead the local council have started negotiations about moving up to level 2, but your calculation suggests we don't need to.
Kentucky's largest newspaper, and one with a LONG reputation for journalism AND political influence, is the Louisville Courier-Journal, which is historically Democratic and still is (mostly).
Both papers have extensive circulation across the Blue Grass State. Not absolutely sure, but reckon paper with 3rd biggest KY impact is Cincinnati Enquirer which has extensive circulation in Northern KY and is traditionally & functionally Republican in orientation.
Mitch McConnell is one of the great survivors of Kentucky politics, first elected to public office in 1977 as Judge Executive of Jefferson County (Louisville), re-elected in 1981, then elected to US Senate in 1984 versus an incumbent Dem.
Mitch has never been Mr Popularity in Kentucky, largely because of his rather aloof personality. But he IS respected.
His biggest problems THIS election year are his opposition to Obamacare (popular esp. in Eastern KY which is part of Appalachia), the belief that he does NOT use his national clout enough for Kentucky's benefit (quite unlike the late US Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia); and finally Trumpsky (who will again win the state but by reduced margin).
Biggest pluses for Mitch are continued erosion of traditional Democratic vote in much of rural Kentucky, esp in Western KY (where many Dems had Confederate ancestors) and Eastern Ky (where labor esp United Mine Workers dominated the electorate from New Deal to end of 20th century).
Ignore the comparison to flu, a disease that kills 1% of people, the question is should that close down the country? I would say no.
Here in WA the Indian casinos re-opened earlier than the Governor wanted them too (being sovereign entities they were NOT obliged to follow his health orders) but have no clue how much business they are getting compared to pre-COVID.
My guess it is down substantially. And their patrons do NOT need to take a plane there and back.
Reckon it is similar story in other states with local casino, riverboat, etc casino gambling.
"Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower."
Bravo.
As to why Americans aren't going to Vegas, that's a different question. Much of the weekend traffic comes from CA and from more conservative parts of the country - people come to Vegas to do what they can't do at home.
My personal vote for the coolest tribute to RCB is Robert C Byrd Greenbank Telescope; note the Senator played a role in securing federal funding for this major international scientific undertaking.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Bank_Telescope
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_places_named_after_Robert_Byrd