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The WH2020 early voting trends suggest that we could see a record turnouts – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 16 in General
The WH2020 early voting trends suggest that we could see a record turnouts – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 655
    Second, Like the Donald.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,407
    So 80m mail-in ballots requested... that does sound impressive... but do we know the corresponding figure from 2016?

    It could just be people who would have voted in person are now mailing in their ballot?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Trump won in 2016 not because he brought out voters, but more because Hillary did not. He won't be slipping through on a low turnout again.

    This is one of the best written editorials on the US election I've read from a right-wing perspective:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-lifelong-republican-has-to-vote-for-biden
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    It is absolutely reprehensible in a free society that voting takes hours. The longest I've ever had to "queue" at an election was about five minutes. Something should be done about this in the USA to ensure anyone who wants to vote can vote.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,407

    It is absolutely reprehensible in a free society that voting takes hours. The longest I've ever had to "queue" at an election was about five minutes. Something should be done about this in the USA to ensure anyone who wants to vote can vote.

    This should actually be the priority of the Democrats IMO. They need to pass something that makes sure people can vote, and ideally makes it harder to gerrymander states.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    This is where years of raging against an out of touch London elite gets you.
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
  • FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
  • My local polling station, a church hall, covers a voting population of around 3,500. The area is split into two, so that there are two ballet boxes, two staff groups. In addition, there is another polling station in my ward which covers a smaller voting population.

    I suppose we have a short ballet paper in the UK, so voting is quick, whereas in the US the ballet paper is long complicated, so that the process of voting is longer.

    What is the size of a polling district in the US?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,007
    fpt about businesses.

    I went out yesterday (for the third time in seven months) for dinner in London with a group of friends.

    As from next week the place we went will not be able to host anyone apart from family groups. Who the chuffing hell goes to a restaurant or bar pub or club in a family group? Well of course people do but by far the majority imo are mates.

    As many have pointed out, it would be best in many ways to be on Tier 3 with compensation than effectively strangled by these regulations with no cash available.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,733

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    I recommend a dog
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    It's a very fruitful political attack angle for Labour. Burnham has seen what Sturgeon has done north of the border and correctly calculated that he can make big waves doing the same himself. This will both hurt the Tories in Government and also burnish his credentials for a future leadership bid, if Starmer fails.

    Of course, it's not the Tories fault that the worst outbreaks are in northern cities and Scotland. The tiered lockdowns are being driven by that, and that alone.

    The idea that only mildly affected areas in the south should also lockdown in 'national solidarity' with the north, or else there should be no lockdown at all, is lunacy.

    HMT would lose even more tax revenue that funds its spending, not to mention thousands more businesses, just for political show.
  • It is absolutely reprehensible in a free society that voting takes hours. The longest I've ever had to "queue" at an election was about five minutes. Something should be done about this in the USA to ensure anyone who wants to vote can vote.

    Its not a free society. Party officials run elections. Party representatives run the police and the schools and all of the other public bodies that pointlessly elect their officials. Its not the electoral college thats a fault its the absurd arrogance that they ARE freedom and they ARE the greatest country in the world. On what measure? The greatest number of children shot dead in their classroom?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,098
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    I recommend a dog
    I would concur with @IanB2 a dog is fantastic for this sort of stuff.

    @RochdalePioneers good luck with everything and glad you are feeling better. And good luck on your parents.
  • IanB2 said:

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    I recommend a dog
    For the olds? They aren't mobile enough to walk one.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,287

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,098
    Just thinking about @RochdalePioneers comment, i came across a clear example of the problems that mental health sufferers face when it comes to recognition when reading a FT Weekend supplement from a few weeks back. The paper was interviewing a Student Officer at SOAS who said that a lot of the societies were telling her that the lockdown was awful for students’ mental health to which her reply was “but Health and Safety are more important”

    There is a nutshell is the problem
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    That's presumably why the EU caved in to our demands and agreed a deal to meet the October 15th deadline set by Boris. After all, they knew that he had committed to walking away if a deal wasn't in place by then, and that must have focused their minds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    Best of luck mate.
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    We aren't a partner. We left the EU in January. It is their EU not ours, so "we" need to persuade "them". It's the same as us "negotiating" to keep using the swimming pool after we have left the leisure centre
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,098
    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    The Sun is reporting Tier 3 for the NE.
    What has changed since Monday? I don't see signs that the Tier 2 aren't working up here.
    Glad I ventured into the Toon yesterday now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    Best advice I can give you is get off here, and social media, and spend more time with the real people who love and care for you.

    Personally, I'd include your parents in that - even if you have to talk to them through a window and bring a portable stool and thermos of tea with you.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    We aren't a partner. We left the EU in January. It is their EU not ours, so "we" need to persuade "them". It's the same as us "negotiating" to keep using the swimming pool after we have left the leisure centre
    We don't "need" their swimming pool.

    We want a trade deal. They have a massive trade surplus with us, we have a massive trade deficit. If we don't get a deal so be it. The consequences of that is we gain sovereignty in full, we gain the fish in full, and there is some disruption on trade where they have a major surplus.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,407

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    Best of luck with the new job. I've started one since lockdown and still not met any colleagues.

    Would recommend doing at least some video calls vs. just audio if internet connections can manage it - just helps to see people!

    Taking relatively passive audio calls (e.g. all staff meeting) while on a walk is great as well. You get to exercise in the fresh air and still get paid for it!
  • IanB2 said:

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    I recommend a dog
    For the olds? They aren't mobile enough to walk one.
    I don't recommend a dog! I grew up with dogs and I've nothing against them, but they do add another layer of hassle to life. Fine if you can accommodate one, but not if life is already problematic enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 16
    The rise in mail ballots and in person early votes is mainly due to Covid, there will also almost certainly be a fall in on the day voting too so I doubt there will be much of a rise in overall turnout.

    Most of the on the day voters will be Trump voters so you would expect Biden to be ahead on the mail and in person early voting.

    The highest turnout for a US presidential election in recent decades was the 58.2% of eligible voters who turned out in 2008 when Obama was first elected, that was the highest turnout since the Nixon v Humphrey election of 1968 and I doubt turnout will beat that, neither candidate has the same level of enthusiasm Obama had then
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,032
    Our resident expert in all things is in full flow again talking bollocks as usual it’s earth shatteringly boring
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Best of luck with the new job. I've started one since lockdown and still not met any colleagues.

    Would recommend doing at least some video calls vs. just audio if internet connections can manage it - just helps to see people!

    Taking relatively passive audio calls (e.g. all staff meeting) while on a walk is great as well. You get to exercise in the fresh air and still get paid for it!

    Happily the new world is cyber (isn't that right Boris...) so I have been able to have very productive Zoom meetings with various new colleagues over in Bucharest as well as the PR agency I want to use who are down in Berkshire.
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100

    Trump won in 2016 not because he brought out voters, but more because Hillary did not. He won't be slipping through on a low turnout again.

    This is one of the best written editorials on the US election I've read from a right-wing perspective:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-lifelong-republican-has-to-vote-for-biden

    Overall turnout was up in 2016 compared to 2012, not by a lot but it was up. Trump did bring voters out - turnout was up amongst rural white voters. That's why there was a the "HS or Less" polling miss. But it was also combined with depressed turnout amongst key Democrat demographics.

    It was a classic example of differential turnout.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    The rise in mail ballots and in person early votes is mainly due to Covid, there will also almost certainly be a fall in on the day voting too so I doubt there will be much of a rise in overall turnout.

    Most of the on the day voters will be Trump voters so you would expect Biden to be ahead on the mail and in person early voting.

    The highest turnout for a US presidential election in recent decades was the 58.2% of eligible voters who turned out in 2008 when Obama was first elected and I doubt turnout will beat that, neither candidate has the same level of enthusiasm Obama had then

    It would surprise me if turnout excees 60%.

    Trump inspires the same level of enthusiasm as Obama did: in Democrats and moderate Republicans for Biden to get rid of him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
  • dixiedean said:

    This is where years of raging against an out of touch London elite gets you.
    Indeed, this is some graffiti posted in Piccaddilly Gardens this morning.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 16

    Trump won in 2016 not because he brought out voters, but more because Hillary did not. He won't be slipping through on a low turnout again.

    This is one of the best written editorials on the US election I've read from a right-wing perspective:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-lifelong-republican-has-to-vote-for-biden

    2016 was not that low a turnout, 55.7% voted which was more than the 54.9% who voted in 2012 or the 51.2% who voted in 2000 or the 49% who voted in 1996.

    Hillary voters turned out, otherwise she would not have won the popular vote, just Trump voters turned out most where they were most needed ie the rustbelt swing states while Hillary voters were more concentrated on the coasts. Hillary won more votes in California in 2016 than Obama did in California in 2012 for example
  • MrEd said:

    Just thinking about @RochdalePioneers comment, i came across a clear example of the problems that mental health sufferers face when it comes to recognition when reading a FT Weekend supplement from a few weeks back. The paper was interviewing a Student Officer at SOAS who said that a lot of the societies were telling her that the lockdown was awful for students’ mental health to which her reply was “but Health and Safety are more important”

    There is a nutshell is the problem

    I am so glad that my eldest is doing a gap year - starts work experience in his old primary school after half term. Best £5k I have ever spent keeping his autistic brain away from the hell that is Covid University.

    Interesting piece in the Grauniad this morning. University chiefs in fear as to what happens in January - if students stay away they will be in deep financial doodoo. Which is of course why universities were told to open up as normal despite the clear and obvious implications for the pox on doing so.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/16/universities-students-young-people-campuses-ruin
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    We aren't a partner. We left the EU in January. It is their EU not ours, so "we" need to persuade "them". It's the same as us "negotiating" to keep using the swimming pool after we have left the leisure centre
    We don't "need" their swimming pool.

    We want a trade deal. They have a massive trade surplus with us, we have a massive trade deficit. If we don't get a deal so be it. The consequences of that is we gain sovereignty in full, we gain the fish in full, and there is some disruption on trade where they have a major surplus.
    FYI, I'm only using quote marks because I don't know how to do emphasis or italics.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,949

    FPT

    One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.

    Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.

    Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.

    I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
    You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.

    Best of luck, though.
    Much appreciated. I've been open about my difficulties coping with things earlier this year - things are genuinely better now. The pills were needed and have made a difference (and yes, I am not getting smashed whilst on them don't worry!). The new job is a bit of a risk but is one of those opportunities you have to take and throw yourself into. I've adapted to the strange world of WFH and it does allow our dream move to Scotland to happen.

    To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.

    This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
    I can sympathise with your parents, being Darby and Joan and never going out. While Skype and Zoom are 'not the same thing' we do make extensive use of them, particularly the latter, and keep in contact both with our family and with old friends. Some of our family are in Thailand; there's no prospect of hugging that set of grandchildren this, or quite possibly next year. I always try to stay positive, but I don't fancy sitting in a mask on a plane for 11 hours!At all!!
    And I understand what you mean about contact with teachers; Eldest Grandson and his wife, the only relatives who can, in practice, shop for us are both teachers, and Granddaughter-in-Law's school has one complete year self-isolating.
    What I would say to you, as a 82 year old asthmatic who is now forced to rely on medication to keep it under control, is let them try and be as strong and as positive as they can be. Encourage them to use all the tech available, get involved with things like the WEA and the u3a........ the latter is by no means all academic. I'm about to sign up for a Zoom course on African History with the former.
    And I know we ...... lots of people here...... sneer at Facebook, and there are some silly posts, but it does help, and it does give a point of contact. There's probably a local one.
    Finally if you want to pm me for a chat, feel free. I'm probably going to have the time!
  • On topic, it looks like a shellacking for Trump but I still won't be confident until Biden's sworn in next January.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923
    edited October 16
    MrEd said:

    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout

    Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:

    1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.

    2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.

    It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
  • geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 3,543

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The only statistic that really matters in all this is the following one: UK exports to the EU are 14% of our GDP, while EU exports to the UK are 3% of their GDP. That is why they hold more of the cards than we do. Of course fishing is our strong card, which is why we haven't played it yet. Fishing accounts for 0.1% of our economy. And that is our strongest card.
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
    Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,287

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.

  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    Then there is no helping you, Philip.
  • @RochdalePioneers sending you my very best wishes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Police break up 100 guest wedding in Southall and impose a £10,000 fine on the venue owner
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-54564448
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The only statistic that really matters in all this is the following one: UK exports to the EU are 14% of our GDP, while EU exports to the UK are 3% of their GDP. That is why they hold more of the cards than we do. Of course fishing is our strong card, which is why we haven't played it yet. Fishing accounts for 0.1% of our economy. And that is our strongest card.
    Imports are also important though. We'd starve without them!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    Trump won in 2016 not because he brought out voters, but more because Hillary did not. He won't be slipping through on a low turnout again.

    This is one of the best written editorials on the US election I've read from a right-wing perspective:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-lifelong-republican-has-to-vote-for-biden

    2016 was not that low a turnout, 55.7% voted which was more than the 54.9% who voted in 2012 or the 51.2% who voted in 2000 or the 49% who voted in 1996,

    Hillary voters turned out, otherwise she would not have won the popular vote, just Trump voters turned out most where they were most needed ie the rustbelt swing states
    Some cherrypicking there. You can't use aggregate national data unless you think that Clinton won the election as she did in the aggregate national count.

    California turnout in 2016 was 75.27% up against 72.35% in 2012 - and won nearly a million extra Californian votes than Obama did. But what was that worth electorally?

    Wisconsin: Turnout 67.34% down from 70.35% - Trump got fewer votes than Romney. Romney lost by hundreds of thousands despite getting more than Trump.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,733

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    We aren't a partner. We left the EU in January. It is their EU not ours, so "we" need to persuade "them". It's the same as us "negotiating" to keep using the swimming pool after we have left the leisure centre
    We don't "need" their swimming pool.

    We want a trade deal. They have a massive trade surplus with us, we have a massive trade deficit. If we don't get a deal so be it. The consequences of that is we gain sovereignty in full, we gain the fish in full, and there is some disruption on trade where they have a major surplus.
    FYI, I'm only using quote marks because I don't know how to do emphasis or italics.
    For italics you just type '<' followed by 'i' followed by '>'
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The only statistic that really matters in all this is the following one: UK exports to the EU are 14% of our GDP, while EU exports to the UK are 3% of their GDP. That is why they hold more of the cards than we do. Of course fishing is our strong card, which is why we haven't played it yet. Fishing accounts for 0.1% of our economy. And that is our strongest card.
    I would have thought it was a lot easier for the EU to replace 3% from other areas in the 27 (plus agreement countries) rather than UK finding 14% from Australia etc?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923

    On topic, it looks like a shellacking for Trump but I still won't be confident until Biden's sworn in next January.

    Yes, although, before that, a useful positive indicator would be an agreeable bank transfer from Sporting Index.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 30,061

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We have absolute morons working for the UK team , years of this and they still cannot grasp that they are not getting what they want no matter how many times they tell the EU they are Great Britain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 30,061

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    Then there is no helping you, Philip.
    You are just noticing that?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
    Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
    Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    edited October 16

    MrEd said:

    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout

    Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:

    1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.

    2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.

    It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
    The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
  • IanB2 said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    We aren't a partner. We left the EU in January. It is their EU not ours, so "we" need to persuade "them". It's the same as us "negotiating" to keep using the swimming pool after we have left the leisure centre
    We don't "need" their swimming pool.

    We want a trade deal. They have a massive trade surplus with us, we have a massive trade deficit. If we don't get a deal so be it. The consequences of that is we gain sovereignty in full, we gain the fish in full, and there is some disruption on trade where they have a major surplus.
    FYI, I'm only using quote marks because I don't know how to do emphasis or italics.
    For italics you just type '<' followed by 'i' followed by '>'
    tks
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 30,061

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The only statistic that really matters in all this is the following one: UK exports to the EU are 14% of our GDP, while EU exports to the UK are 3% of their GDP. That is why they hold more of the cards than we do. Of course fishing is our strong card, which is why we haven't played it yet. Fishing accounts for 0.1% of our economy. And that is our strongest card.
    You will give him a sore head, real numbers confuse the Tories.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.

    Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 30,061

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Definitely in the head for sure
  • On topic, it looks like a shellacking for Trump but I still won't be confident until Biden's sworn in next January.

    Yes, although, before that, a useful positive indicator would be an agreeable bank transfer from Sporting Index.
    Yup but every time I bet on this race all I can think is 'It's 2020!'

    If Biden does win a fun market might be 'Will Trump attend Biden's inauguration?'
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    Hillary voters turned out, otherwise she would not have won the popular vote, just Trump voters turned out most where they were most needed ie the rustbelt swing states while Hillary voters were more concentrated on the coasts. Hillary won more votes in California in 2016 than Obama did in California in 2012 for example

    Wisconsin:

    Romney 2012 1,407,966 - lost by 213,019
    Trump 2016 1,405,284 - won by 22,748

    Democrats did not turn out. Low turnout lost them the vote, not high turnout for Trump. That Hillary enthused even higher turnout for California is absolutely bloody meaningless when turnout collapsed where it matters. If turnout is up across the board, that is fantastic news for Biden.
  • @RochdalePioneers sending you my very best wishes.

    You're all fabulous people and OGH does me a great service by having this site for us all to post on. Honestly though today isn't some kind of fresh crisis point for me. Its just life. I juss fess up sometimes as it is cleansing.

    Its my last day on the old job, its been something of a failure as the pox absolutely demolished our business plan but what has happened isn't my fault - the boss has made some odd (and wrong) decisions but I always accept that unless you are the person making the decision with both the same facts and the same wider context they have its easy to carp. I'm happy that the business is still trading albeit in a smaller form than it was and significantly smaller than it expected to be be by now.
  • Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:

    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout

    Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:

    1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.

    2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.

    It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
    The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
    1.15 before commission on the Dems to win the popular vote looks a relative steal.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,949
    Dura_Ace said:

    geoffw said:



    On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.

    I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.

    I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
    Fisherfolk are the lineal descendants of the men who beat the Armada and must be honoured.

    The fact that most British fishing is actually done by Scots is irrelevant,
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
    Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
    Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
    Yes. And the EU is Germany. And France. And Spain. etc etc. The GDP of the EU is all of those countries added together. I've found an instructional video which may help you.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:

    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout

    Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:

    1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.

    2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.

    It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
    The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
    All the polls show most Trump voters will vote on polling day, most Biden voters will vote beforehand
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    malcolmg said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Definitely in the head for sure
    You shouldn't be laughing malcolm - this bullshit about the UK being weak is the exact same bullshit about Scotland being weak if Scotland goes independent.

    You recognise it as nonsense for one, you should do the same for the other.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,796

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
    I think that's worth a Felix 'like'
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,062
    edited October 16

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.

    Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
    That's a different argument.

    Your original statement was that "inflexibility is ... why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy". That is not true. The primary reason why the EU is shrinking as a share of the world economy is not inflexibility but because it is a developed, rather than a developing, economy. The economies of the countries you mentioned are also shrinking as a share of the world economy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
    Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
    Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
    Yes. And the EU is Germany. And France. And Spain. etc etc. The GDP of the EU is all of those countries added together. I've found an instructional video which may help you.

    The EU is all of those countries averaged together not added together. The EU is less than Germany not more than it.

    If you have one rich person, or if you have one rich person and 7 unemployed people pooled together, then which group is richer?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:

    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout

    Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:

    1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.

    2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.

    It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
    The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
    This is done. I'm considering selling all I possess and laying Trump at 2.98. Going to be discussing that with my wife this afternoon. I have points in the bank from erecting a wardrobe recently.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818

    HYUFD said:

    Trump won in 2016 not because he brought out voters, but more because Hillary did not. He won't be slipping through on a low turnout again.

    This is one of the best written editorials on the US election I've read from a right-wing perspective:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-lifelong-republican-has-to-vote-for-biden

    2016 was not that low a turnout, 55.7% voted which was more than the 54.9% who voted in 2012 or the 51.2% who voted in 2000 or the 49% who voted in 1996,

    Hillary voters turned out, otherwise she would not have won the popular vote, just Trump voters turned out most where they were most needed ie the rustbelt swing states
    Some cherrypicking there. You can't use aggregate national data unless you think that Clinton won the election as she did in the aggregate national count.

    California turnout in 2016 was 75.27% up against 72.35% in 2012 - and won nearly a million extra Californian votes than Obama did. But what was that worth electorally?

    Wisconsin: Turnout 67.34% down from 70.35% - Trump got fewer votes than Romney. Romney lost by hundreds of thousands despite getting more than Trump.
    Trump got more votes than Romney in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa, Wisconsin was the only exception to that
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 3,543

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Most economies in the world have a declining share of world GDP, because China has gone from 2% to 19% of world GDP in the last 40 years and India from 3% to 7%. The share of all developing countries excluding China and India has actually declined. Over the same period the EU27 share has gone from 26% to 15%, but the UK share has fallen from 3.7% to 2.3% and that of all advanced economies from 63% to 40%, so the whole euro sclerosis thing is a bit of a myth. A country like Italy has clearly got big problems, but the EU has many high performing economies inside it. And nobody ever got rich by making it harder to trade with anybody.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923
    The most surprising thing about the US election is the stubbornness of the betting markets. Biden has a ten-point lead, twenty million votes have already been cast and registered, with millions more no doubt already in the post or being processed, election day is just two and a half weeks away, the forecasting models such as 538 and the Economist all agree that Biden has an 85% to 90% chance of winning and all have their weighted forecasts at over 340 Biden ECVs, and yet the markets are stuck at an implied 34% probability of Trump bringing off a win, and the spreads are stuck at around 321 Biden ECVs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    edited October 16
    HYUFD said:
    I don't want to sound like a poll unskewer .... BUT .... recalled VI on that is Clinton 338, Trump 453 -> New raw VI Biden 452, Trump 467.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    edited October 16

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.

    Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
    Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 30,061

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
    Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
    Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
    Holy crap, how in the name of the wee man can you come to that conclusion
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 3,543

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The only statistic that really matters in all this is the following one: UK exports to the EU are 14% of our GDP, while EU exports to the UK are 3% of their GDP. That is why they hold more of the cards than we do. Of course fishing is our strong card, which is why we haven't played it yet. Fishing accounts for 0.1% of our economy. And that is our strongest card.
    I would have thought it was a lot easier for the EU to replace 3% from other areas in the 27 (plus agreement countries) rather than UK finding 14% from Australia etc?
    Absolutely, yes. This is why they have the stronger hand (plus their sheer economic weight and their superior negotiating experience). But prosecco, or something.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468

    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:

    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout

    Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:

    1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.

    2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.

    It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
    The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
    1.15 before commission on the Dems to win the popular vote looks a relative steal.
    It's an absolute steal.

    Free money.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 30,061

    malcolmg said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Definitely in the head for sure
    You shouldn't be laughing malcolm - this bullshit about the UK being weak is the exact same bullshit about Scotland being weak if Scotland goes independent.

    You recognise it as nonsense for one, you should do the same for the other.
    you mean weak like as in Denmark , Sweden and other small similar countries with less resources than Scotland or as in being poor as a colony of the UK.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    On topic, it looks like a shellacking for Trump but I still won't be confident until Biden's sworn in next January.

    Yes, although, before that, a useful positive indicator would be an agreeable bank transfer from Sporting Index.
    I hope they keep their markets open all the way through to the final numbers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:

    On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.

    1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).

    That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.

    2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;

    3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout

    Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:

    1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.

    2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.

    It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
    The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
    This is done. I'm considering selling all I possess and laying Trump at 2.98. Going to be discussing that with my wife this afternoon. I have points in the bank from erecting a wardrobe recently.
    Better keep that shirt on your back in that wardrobe then. Just in case.
  • Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
    Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.

    We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
    The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
    Yes.
    Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
    From memory last time we went through this,

    The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.

    For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.

    The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.

    Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901


    333k one stop on the first day for North Carolina !
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 30,061

    Dura_Ace said:

    geoffw said:



    On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.

    I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.

    I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
    Fisherfolk are the lineal descendants of the men who beat the Armada and must be honoured.

    The fact that most British fishing is actually done by Scots is irrelevant,
    OKC , they are relabelling all our produce as British so might as well call our fishermen British as well.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump won in 2016 not because he brought out voters, but more because Hillary did not. He won't be slipping through on a low turnout again.

    This is one of the best written editorials on the US election I've read from a right-wing perspective:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-lifelong-republican-has-to-vote-for-biden

    2016 was not that low a turnout, 55.7% voted which was more than the 54.9% who voted in 2012 or the 51.2% who voted in 2000 or the 49% who voted in 1996,

    Hillary voters turned out, otherwise she would not have won the popular vote, just Trump voters turned out most where they were most needed ie the rustbelt swing states
    Some cherrypicking there. You can't use aggregate national data unless you think that Clinton won the election as she did in the aggregate national count.

    California turnout in 2016 was 75.27% up against 72.35% in 2012 - and won nearly a million extra Californian votes than Obama did. But what was that worth electorally?

    Wisconsin: Turnout 67.34% down from 70.35% - Trump got fewer votes than Romney. Romney lost by hundreds of thousands despite getting more than Trump.
    Trump got more votes than Romney in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa, Wisconsin was the only exception to that
    Fewer votes than Obama in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa.

    In Michigan between 131,443 fewer votes were cast between the two party figures.

    Turnout was up in Florida to be fair. North Carolina went Romney so odd one to be on the list.
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