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This will do nothing but solidify the view the Tories are not interested in the North.
It could just be people who would have voted in person are now mailing in their ballot?
This is one of the best written editorials on the US election I've read from a right-wing perspective:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-this-lifelong-republican-has-to-vote-for-biden
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
To be completely frank its my parents that bother me the most as we descend back towards the inevitable lengthy lockdown. They've barely been out or seen anyone this year, they're both pretty frail, and I know my my especially is increasingly depressed about what their lives have been reduced to. As Mrs RP works in school and the pox is in open circulation I daren't go and see them even if I was allowed by the regulations which I haven't been all year.
This is the balancing act. Staying away hopefully shields them from the pox which with my dad's Polio-ravaged chest would likely finish him off quickly. But to what end if their lives are sitting in their fairly modest house going nowhere and seeing noone? Yes we Skype, but its hardly the same thing. And this is only October - we have a whole winter of this to come.
I suppose we have a short ballet paper in the UK, so voting is quick, whereas in the US the ballet paper is long complicated, so that the process of voting is longer.
What is the size of a polling district in the US?
I went out yesterday (for the third time in seven months) for dinner in London with a group of friends.
As from next week the place we went will not be able to host anyone apart from family groups. Who the chuffing hell goes to a restaurant or bar pub or club in a family group? Well of course people do but by far the majority imo are mates.
As many have pointed out, it would be best in many ways to be on Tier 3 with compensation than effectively strangled by these regulations with no cash available.
Of course, it's not the Tories fault that the worst outbreaks are in northern cities and Scotland. The tiered lockdowns are being driven by that, and that alone.
The idea that only mildly affected areas in the south should also lockdown in 'national solidarity' with the north, or else there should be no lockdown at all, is lunacy.
HMT would lose even more tax revenue that funds its spending, not to mention thousands more businesses, just for political show.
@RochdalePioneers good luck with everything and glad you are feeling better. And good luck on your parents.
There is a nutshell is the problem
1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).
That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.
2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;
3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
What has changed since Monday? I don't see signs that the Tier 2 aren't working up here.
Glad I ventured into the Toon yesterday now.
Personally, I'd include your parents in that - even if you have to talk to them through a window and bring a portable stool and thermos of tea with you.
We want a trade deal. They have a massive trade surplus with us, we have a massive trade deficit. If we don't get a deal so be it. The consequences of that is we gain sovereignty in full, we gain the fish in full, and there is some disruption on trade where they have a major surplus.
Would recommend doing at least some video calls vs. just audio if internet connections can manage it - just helps to see people!
Taking relatively passive audio calls (e.g. all staff meeting) while on a walk is great as well. You get to exercise in the fresh air and still get paid for it!
Most of the on the day voters will be Trump voters so you would expect Biden to be ahead on the mail and in person early voting.
The highest turnout for a US presidential election in recent decades was the 58.2% of eligible voters who turned out in 2008 when Obama was first elected, that was the highest turnout since the Nixon v Humphrey election of 1968 and I doubt turnout will beat that, neither candidate has the same level of enthusiasm Obama had then
We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
It was a classic example of differential turnout.
Trump inspires the same level of enthusiasm as Obama did: in Democrats and moderate Republicans for Biden to get rid of him.
https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1317026730188603392
Hillary voters turned out, otherwise she would not have won the popular vote, just Trump voters turned out most where they were most needed ie the rustbelt swing states while Hillary voters were more concentrated on the coasts. Hillary won more votes in California in 2016 than Obama did in California in 2012 for example
Interesting piece in the Grauniad this morning. University chiefs in fear as to what happens in January - if students stay away they will be in deep financial doodoo. Which is of course why universities were told to open up as normal despite the clear and obvious implications for the pox on doing so.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/16/universities-students-young-people-campuses-ruin
And I understand what you mean about contact with teachers; Eldest Grandson and his wife, the only relatives who can, in practice, shop for us are both teachers, and Granddaughter-in-Law's school has one complete year self-isolating.
What I would say to you, as a 82 year old asthmatic who is now forced to rely on medication to keep it under control, is let them try and be as strong and as positive as they can be. Encourage them to use all the tech available, get involved with things like the WEA and the u3a........ the latter is by no means all academic. I'm about to sign up for a Zoom course on African History with the former.
And I know we ...... lots of people here...... sneer at Facebook, and there are some silly posts, but it does help, and it does give a point of contact. There's probably a local one.
Finally if you want to pm me for a chat, feel free. I'm probably going to have the time!
1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.
2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.
It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-54564448
California turnout in 2016 was 75.27% up against 72.35% in 2012 - and won nearly a million extra Californian votes than Obama did. But what was that worth electorally?
Wisconsin: Turnout 67.34% down from 70.35% - Trump got fewer votes than Romney. Romney lost by hundreds of thousands despite getting more than Trump.
Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
If Biden does win a fun market might be 'Will Trump attend Biden's inauguration?'
Romney 2012 1,407,966 - lost by 213,019
Trump 2016 1,405,284 - won by 22,748
Democrats did not turn out. Low turnout lost them the vote, not high turnout for Trump. That Hillary enthused even higher turnout for California is absolutely bloody meaningless when turnout collapsed where it matters. If turnout is up across the board, that is fantastic news for Biden.
Its my last day on the old job, its been something of a failure as the pox absolutely demolished our business plan but what has happened isn't my fault - the boss has made some odd (and wrong) decisions but I always accept that unless you are the person making the decision with both the same facts and the same wider context they have its easy to carp. I'm happy that the business is still trading albeit in a smaller form than it was and significantly smaller than it expected to be be by now.
https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1316950789013864448?s=20
The fact that most British fishing is actually done by Scots is irrelevant,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4IQjUpTNVU
You recognise it as nonsense for one, you should do the same for the other.
Your original statement was that "inflexibility is ... why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy". That is not true. The primary reason why the EU is shrinking as a share of the world economy is not inflexibility but because it is a developed, rather than a developing, economy. The economies of the countries you mentioned are also shrinking as a share of the world economy.
If you have one rich person, or if you have one rich person and 7 unemployed people pooled together, then which group is richer?
Free money.
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
333k one stop on the first day for North Carolina !
In Michigan between 131,443 fewer votes were cast between the two party figures.
Turnout was up in Florida to be fair. North Carolina went Romney so odd one to be on the list.