Indeed - and looking at the vote changes it was Labour and LD voters heading for the exit with the SNP. The Tory vote was actually up. Without sensible tactical voting from unionists it really is game over and in that seat Lab and LD seem to have made the wrong choice.
Or maybe they made the choice of preferring the SNP to the Tory? In fact I think they did.
Me too. I'd have probably watched the Trump one. The pull of the grotesque.
I think a lot of people here are sick and tired of Trump and his schtick. A big part of Biden's appeal is increasingly that he's the anti-Trump: decent, reasonable, a bit dull.
If I were running the Biden campaign I'd be making ads featuring the most unhinged Trump moments with the simple slogan: "You can make it stop."
Yes that is at the core of my near certainty that he will lose. It's something I've felt for a long time. America is not so far gone as to tolerate this for another 4 years.
And that's a genuinely great idea of yours. Wouldn't surprise me to see it in the final days.
They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.
They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.
Yet if Trump is re elected they would still be the Gold Standard
I don't believe Trafalgar does polling. I believe they take existing polls and just shift them six points to the right.
If they were real:
(1) Where's the corporate entity? Right now, Trafalgar is a website (a dot org) which posts a few claimed polls every now and then. Real businesses are incorporated. Trafalgar is not.
(2) They claim to use an online panel. Great! That's just like Opinium, YouGov, SurveyMonkey, etc. And you know what all those organisatons have in common? (Apart from actually existing) Yes, you can join their panel. Trafalgar has no way of joining their panel. So where does it come from?
(3) They would have a business - you know, they'd be commissioned by actual newspapers and corporates to do research. Yet they don't.
So, this a "pollster" who only does polls every two years (what happens to their panel in between?) and which doesn't exist an as incorporated entity and which appears to have no employees or sources of revenue.
You can call that gold standard if you like, I call bullshit.
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.
Polling Day in New Zealand and the last two polls strongly suggest a convincing victory for Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party over Judith Collins and the National Party.
The final Colmar Brunton Poll has Labour ahead 46-31 with the Greens and ACT on 8 each. In terms of seats, that would leave Labour on 59, just short of a majority with National on 40, Greens on 11 and ACT on 10.
The final Reid Research poll has Labour on 45.8% and National on 31.1%. ACT has 7.4%, Greens on 6.3% and New Zealand First still well short of the threshold on 3.5%. On those numbers, Labour wins 61 seats and can govern alone. National wins 41, ACT 10 and the Greens 8.
The question seems to be whether Labour can win enough seats to form a majority or whether Ardern will have to seek Green support for the next three years.
They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.
They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.
Yet if Trump is re elected they would still be the Gold Standard
I don't believe Trafalgar does polling. I believe they take existing polls and just shift them six points to the right.
If they were real:
(1) Where's the corporate entity? Right now, Trafalgar is a website (a dot org) which posts a few claimed polls every now and then. Real businesses are incorporated. Trafalgar is not.
(2) They claim to use an online panel. Great! That's just like Opinium, YouGov, SurveyMonkey, etc. And you know what all those organisatons have in common? (Apart from actually existing) Yes, you can join their panel. Trafalgar has no way of joining their panel. So where does it come from?
(3) They would have a business - you know, they'd be commissioned by actual newspapers and corporates to do research. Yet they don't.
So, this a "pollster" who only does polls every two years (what happens to their panel in between?) and which doesn't exist an as incorporated entity and which appears to have no employees or sources of revenue.
You can call that gold standard if you like, I call bullshit.
Indeed - and looking at the vote changes it was Labour and LD voters heading for the exit with the SNP. The Tory vote was actually up. Without sensible tactical voting from unionists it really is game over and in that seat Lab and LD seem to have made the wrong choice.
Most marginal constituencies in Scotland are SNP V Labour not Tory v SNP, so it will be Tory tactical votes in the central belt next year for Labour that could prove crucial
As expected, the Trafalgar poll suggesting Trump is ahead in Michigan has generated plenty of discussion. The Emerson poll showing a tie in North Carolina is not insignificant.
The suggestion the race is tightening in North Carolina is interesting and we'll see if that is a wider trend or influenced by Cunningham's recent issues. I've moved NC back to TCTC.
Another poll out showing Biden ahead in Florida so I've decided to move FL to the Blue column for now. Of the last dozen or so polls, Biden has led in all bar the Trafalgar poll (naturally).
Better news for Trump with a poll in Alaska putting him up 45-39 with a strong third party vote for Jorgensen at 8% - I think his best anywhere that I've seen. I did think at one point Alaska might flip but I suspect not now and I've moved it back into the Red camp.
One state never in doubt is Hawaii and it's nice to see a poll from those most beautiful of islands.
Me too. I'd have probably watched the Trump one. The pull of the grotesque.
I think a lot of people here are sick and tired of Trump and his schtick. A big part of Biden's appeal is increasingly that he's the anti-Trump: decent, reasonable, a bit dull.
If I were running the Biden campaign I'd be making ads featuring the most unhinged Trump moments with the simple slogan: "You can make it stop."
Biden actually made one that was just a clip of Trump telling his supporters jokingly that he didn't know what he'd do if he lost, and they'd never see or hear from him again, then "I'm Joe Biden and I approve this message"
Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.
No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.
Impeachment is for crimes committed in office.
Scenario that Contrarian is highlighting is a pipedream.
However, under Article II, Section 4 of US Constitution:
"The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."
You will note that NOWHERE does it say "while in office" thus the US House could indeed impeach a President or other "civil officers" of federal government for offenses committed NOT committed while in office.
Fact that alleged high crimes & misdemeanors were NOT during term of office would likely be an argument against impeachment and/or conviction, but would NOT preclude such action.
Comments
In fact I think they did.
And that's a genuinely great idea of yours. Wouldn't surprise me to see it in the final days.
If they were real:
(1) Where's the corporate entity? Right now, Trafalgar is a website (a dot org) which posts a few claimed polls every now and then. Real businesses are incorporated. Trafalgar is not.
(2) They claim to use an online panel. Great! That's just like Opinium, YouGov, SurveyMonkey, etc. And you know what all those organisatons have in common? (Apart from actually existing) Yes, you can join their panel. Trafalgar has no way of joining their panel. So where does it come from?
(3) They would have a business - you know, they'd be commissioned by actual newspapers and corporates to do research. Yet they don't.
So, this a "pollster" who only does polls every two years (what happens to their panel in between?) and which doesn't exist an as incorporated entity and which appears to have no employees or sources of revenue.
You can call that gold standard if you like, I call bullshit.
“not a bad result”.
Polling Day in New Zealand and the last two polls strongly suggest a convincing victory for Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party over Judith Collins and the National Party.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300134410/election-2020-final-poll-has-labour-governing-alone
The final Colmar Brunton Poll has Labour ahead 46-31 with the Greens and ACT on 8 each. In terms of seats, that would leave Labour on 59, just short of a majority with National on 40, Greens on 11 and ACT on 10.
The final Reid Research poll has Labour on 45.8% and National on 31.1%. ACT has 7.4%, Greens on 6.3% and New Zealand First still well short of the threshold on 3.5%. On those numbers, Labour wins 61 seats and can govern alone. National wins 41, ACT 10 and the Greens 8.
The question seems to be whether Labour can win enough seats to form a majority or whether Ardern will have to seek Green support for the next three years.
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1316674076534927360
NEW THREAD
We're having some technical issues, so you can access it via here.https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/9109/undefined-discussion-subject
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-neck-and-neck-as-republicans-close-gap-in-u-s-senate-and-governor-races
The suggestion the race is tightening in North Carolina is interesting and we'll see if that is a wider trend or influenced by Cunningham's recent issues. I've moved NC back to TCTC.
Another poll out showing Biden ahead in Florida so I've decided to move FL to the Blue column for now. Of the last dozen or so polls, Biden has led in all bar the Trafalgar poll (naturally).
Better news for Trump with a poll in Alaska putting him up 45-39 with a strong third party vote for Jorgensen at 8% - I think his best anywhere that I've seen. I did think at one point Alaska might flip but I suspect not now and I've moved it back into the Red camp.
One state never in doubt is Hawaii and it's nice to see a poll from those most beautiful of islands.
https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/10/civil-beat-hnn-poll-hawaii-voters-embrace-biden-for-us-president/
Clinton won Hawaii 62-30 last time and Biden is ahead 61-28 so a tiny swing to Biden but the 4 EC votes are completely safe in his pocket.
I'm currently at 313-163 to Biden with 62 TCTC.
However, under Article II, Section 4 of US Constitution:
"The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."
You will note that NOWHERE does it say "while in office" thus the US House could indeed impeach a President or other "civil officers" of federal government for offenses committed NOT committed while in office.
Fact that alleged high crimes & misdemeanors were NOT during term of office would likely be an argument against impeachment and/or conviction, but would NOT preclude such action.