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The WH2020 early voting trends suggest that we could see a record turnouts – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    felix said:

    Indeed - and looking at the vote changes it was Labour and LD voters heading for the exit with the SNP. The Tory vote was actually up. Without sensible tactical voting from unionists it really is game over and in that seat Lab and LD seem to have made the wrong choice.
    Or maybe they made the choice of preferring the SNP to the Tory?
    In fact I think they did.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2020
    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:
    Me too. I'd have probably watched the Trump one. The pull of the grotesque.
    I think a lot of people here are sick and tired of Trump and his schtick. A big part of Biden's appeal is increasingly that he's the anti-Trump: decent, reasonable, a bit dull.

    If I were running the Biden campaign I'd be making ads featuring the most unhinged Trump moments with the simple slogan: "You can make it stop."
    Yes that is at the core of my near certainty that he will lose. It's something I've felt for a long time. America is not so far gone as to tolerate this for another 4 years.

    And that's a genuinely great idea of yours. Wouldn't surprise me to see it in the final days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm calling it:

    Trafalgar is not a real pollster.

    They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.

    They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.

    Yet if Trump is re elected they would still be the Gold Standard
    I don't believe Trafalgar does polling. I believe they take existing polls and just shift them six points to the right.

    If they were real:

    (1) Where's the corporate entity? Right now, Trafalgar is a website (a dot org) which posts a few claimed polls every now and then. Real businesses are incorporated. Trafalgar is not.

    (2) They claim to use an online panel. Great! That's just like Opinium, YouGov, SurveyMonkey, etc. And you know what all those organisatons have in common? (Apart from actually existing) Yes, you can join their panel. Trafalgar has no way of joining their panel. So where does it come from?

    (3) They would have a business - you know, they'd be commissioned by actual newspapers and corporates to do research. Yet they don't.

    So, this a "pollster" who only does polls every two years (what happens to their panel in between?) and which doesn't exist an as incorporated entity and which appears to have no employees or sources of revenue.

    You can call that gold standard if you like, I call bullshit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    Hardly a bad result either, the Tory voteshare was up
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    Jonathan said:

    Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.

    No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
    A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.


    Impeachment is for crimes committed in office.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    HYUFD said:

    Hardly a bad result either, the Tory voteshare was up
    In the Scottish Tory heartlands, they’ve just lost a seat to the SNP. The nationalists.

    “not a bad result”.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    edited October 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.

    No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
    A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.


    Impeachment is for crimes committed in office.
    I don’t think the GOP really care?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Evening all :)

    Polling Day in New Zealand and the last two polls strongly suggest a convincing victory for Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party over Judith Collins and the National Party.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300134410/election-2020-final-poll-has-labour-governing-alone

    The final Colmar Brunton Poll has Labour ahead 46-31 with the Greens and ACT on 8 each. In terms of seats, that would leave Labour on 59, just short of a majority with National on 40, Greens on 11 and ACT on 10.

    The final Reid Research poll has Labour on 45.8% and National on 31.1%. ACT has 7.4%, Greens on 6.3% and New Zealand First still well short of the threshold on 3.5%. On those numbers, Labour wins 61 seats and can govern alone. National wins 41, ACT 10 and the Greens 8.

    The question seems to be whether Labour can win enough seats to form a majority or whether Ardern will have to seek Green support for the next three years.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm calling it:

    Trafalgar is not a real pollster.

    They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.

    They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.

    Yet if Trump is re elected they would still be the Gold Standard
    I don't believe Trafalgar does polling. I believe they take existing polls and just shift them six points to the right.

    If they were real:

    (1) Where's the corporate entity? Right now, Trafalgar is a website (a dot org) which posts a few claimed polls every now and then. Real businesses are incorporated. Trafalgar is not.

    (2) They claim to use an online panel. Great! That's just like Opinium, YouGov, SurveyMonkey, etc. And you know what all those organisatons have in common? (Apart from actually existing) Yes, you can join their panel. Trafalgar has no way of joining their panel. So where does it come from?

    (3) They would have a business - you know, they'd be commissioned by actual newspapers and corporates to do research. Yet they don't.

    So, this a "pollster" who only does polls every two years (what happens to their panel in between?) and which doesn't exist an as incorporated entity and which appears to have no employees or sources of revenue.

    You can call that gold standard if you like, I call bullshit.
    I thought they claimed to do robo call polling?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    felix said:

    Indeed - and looking at the vote changes it was Labour and LD voters heading for the exit with the SNP. The Tory vote was actually up. Without sensible tactical voting from unionists it really is game over and in that seat Lab and LD seem to have made the wrong choice.
    Most marginal constituencies in Scotland are SNP V Labour not Tory v SNP, so it will be Tory tactical votes in the central belt next year for Labour that could prove crucial
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  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    As expected, the Trafalgar poll suggesting Trump is ahead in Michigan has generated plenty of discussion. The Emerson poll showing a tie in North Carolina is not insignificant.

    https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-neck-and-neck-as-republicans-close-gap-in-u-s-senate-and-governor-races

    The suggestion the race is tightening in North Carolina is interesting and we'll see if that is a wider trend or influenced by Cunningham's recent issues. I've moved NC back to TCTC.

    Another poll out showing Biden ahead in Florida so I've decided to move FL to the Blue column for now. Of the last dozen or so polls, Biden has led in all bar the Trafalgar poll (naturally).

    Better news for Trump with a poll in Alaska putting him up 45-39 with a strong third party vote for Jorgensen at 8% - I think his best anywhere that I've seen. I did think at one point Alaska might flip but I suspect not now and I've moved it back into the Red camp.

    One state never in doubt is Hawaii and it's nice to see a poll from those most beautiful of islands.

    https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/10/civil-beat-hnn-poll-hawaii-voters-embrace-biden-for-us-president/

    Clinton won Hawaii 62-30 last time and Biden is ahead 61-28 so a tiny swing to Biden but the 4 EC votes are completely safe in his pocket.

    I'm currently at 313-163 to Biden with 62 TCTC.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    rpjs said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:
    Me too. I'd have probably watched the Trump one. The pull of the grotesque.
    I think a lot of people here are sick and tired of Trump and his schtick. A big part of Biden's appeal is increasingly that he's the anti-Trump: decent, reasonable, a bit dull.

    If I were running the Biden campaign I'd be making ads featuring the most unhinged Trump moments with the simple slogan: "You can make it stop."
    Biden actually made one that was just a clip of Trump telling his supporters jokingly that he didn't know what he'd do if he lost, and they'd never see or hear from him again, then "I'm Joe Biden and I approve this message"
  • rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Biden's not Trump. That's all he's got. Some will be motivated for sure, but I would expect that support must fray around the edges when you have to tick the name on the ballot.

    No COVID, economy still going well, thrn Trump might have done it. Not now.
    A US source I listen to said that, if Biden won and the repubs at the same time regained the house, Biden would be facing an impeachment push just based on the Ukraine stuff we have so far. Before he even got his feet under the table.


    Impeachment is for crimes committed in office.
    Scenario that Contrarian is highlighting is a pipedream.

    However, under Article II, Section 4 of US Constitution:

    "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."

    You will note that NOWHERE does it say "while in office" thus the US House could indeed impeach a President or other "civil officers" of federal government for offenses committed NOT committed while in office.

    Fact that alleged high crimes & misdemeanors were NOT during term of office would likely be an argument against impeachment and/or conviction, but would NOT preclude such action.
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