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The WH2020 early voting trends suggest that we could see a record turnouts – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Boris readying for an Australian deal

    He owns this now. The chaos. The medicine shortages. The broken businesses. The lorry parks. The food disruption. The price increases. The whole lot.

    F*ck business turned out to be the one promise he has ever kept.
    Yes, and anyone who complains that they've lost their job, or their business, will doubtless be told to retrain in cyber and called a snob if they object.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020
    Carnyx said:

    That is interesting. Genomic analysis showing evidence for the importation of the virus into Wales from the rest of the UK, tied in with controls or the lack thereof.
    In S Wales, the cases come from local transmission.

    In NE Wales, they come from local transmission with some importation.

    In W. Wales (Ceredigion, Ynys Mon, Gwynedd), they are mainly imported.

    You now need to weight this by population (or cases). Most of the population (and most of the cases) are actually n S Wales & NE Wales. So the disease is being spread in Wales mainly by local transmission.

    The exception is in W. Wales where the cases are being mainly imported, such as by the Right Hon Wanker for Rossendale and Darwen

    https://www.northwaleschronicle.co.uk/news/18449366.mp-jake-berry-living-second-home-anglesey/

    who travelled to Ynys Mon when his wife was infected.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1317036000661721088

    333k one stop on the first day for North Carolina !

    Souls to the polls still to come
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    RobD said:

    ONS - 30,800 per day at 8th October

    That's quite worrying, up to a third of the previous peak. Substantially over my arse.
    Indeed, and puts paid to all the rubbish about "levelling off" that the various head-in-the-sand types have been banging on about for the last week. Johnson should have listened to his scientific advisors last month but he arrogantly chose not to. He's now at least a month behind the pandemic curve and we're heading for a new lockdown because apparently Boris knows best. Just criminal stupidity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right

    So is ballet, but look how offended people got about the very notion of retraining to get a better paid and more productive job.
    It is curious example of British snobbery, which disdains all practical/computing/engineering skills.

    We are paying the price for this foolishness with gradual national impoverishment.

    The subtext of the criticism is that a job in cyber is ... somehow dirty & low-grade & inferior ... compared to a job in ballet.
    And the subtext of the ad is that a job in cyber is superior to one in ballet.
    That one should abandon one's addle-headed dreams of spreading a little joy in this grim world with your beauty, Grace and skill in return for a larger, regular pay cheque from the man.
    National wealth in terms of pure pounds and pence.
    Wonderful!
    As I pointed out below - at the age of 30 or so, she will very likely need to change careers.
  • Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    More showboating and drama from Bozo .

    This way when there is a deal he can say the EU moved !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1317036000661721088

    333k one stop on the first day for North Carolina !

    Souls to the polls still to come
    Is that going ahead still ?
  • I note that the figure of 20m votes doesn't include New York. Do we have any indication of early voting there? Is it different from other states?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    Dura_Ace said:

    geoffw said:



    On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.

    I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.

    I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
    To be honest that is just ignorant and an insult to all those in fishing communities

    It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats

    And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking

    You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times

    @Dura_Ace has a lot of anger inside him he can't control very well and feels he needs to release, hence the aggressive posts on here, his (self-declared) personal unpleasantness to those he vociferously disagrees with offline, and his dangerous driving.

    He needs help.
    !
    . . . - - - . . .

  • I note that the figure of 20m votes doesn't include New York. Do we have any indication of early voting there? Is it different from other states?

    Don't they just weigh the votes in NY?
  • OnboardG1 said:

    RobD said:

    ONS - 30,800 per day at 8th October

    That's quite worrying, up to a third of the previous peak. Substantially over my arse.
    Indeed, and puts paid to all the rubbish about "levelling off" that the various head-in-the-sand types have been banging on about for the last week. Johnson should have listened to his scientific advisors last month but he arrogantly chose not to. He's now at least a month behind the pandemic curve and we're heading for a new lockdown because apparently Boris knows best. Just criminal stupidity.
    No it doesn't. Levelling off has only fully happened when you reach the peak, if we think that we're approaching the peak now which is what the discussions have been about then an increase should not be a shock.

    The survey shows that its gone up by 50% in the week, which matches the predictions of those who thought it was levelling off.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Last December the lying clown had an 'oven-ready deal'. Or so he said!
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    As was pointed out the other day, a good negotiator should never be surprised with the behaviour of their negotiating partner. Upset, possibly. But not surprised. That's the difference between the incompetent placemen we have and the EU negotiating team.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    That is interesting. Genomic analysis showing evidence for the importation of the virus into Wales from the rest of the UK, tied in with controls or the lack thereof.
    In S Wales, the cases come from local transmission.

    In NE Wales, they come from local transmission with some importation.

    In W. Wales (Ceredigion, Ynys Mon, Gwynedd), they are mainly imported.

    You now need to weight this by population (or cases). Most of the population (and most of the cases) are actually n S Wales & NE Wales. So the disease is being spread in Wales mainly by local transmission.

    The exception is in W. Wales where the cases are being mainly imported, such as by the Right Hon Wanker for Rossendale and Darwen

    https://www.northwaleschronicle.co.uk/news/18449366.mp-jake-berry-living-second-home-anglesey/

    who travelled to Ynys Mon when his wife was infected.
    Hm, there is a difference between importation of a specific genome (i.e. strain) fo virus and its subsequent spread. if the virus had not been imported there would be no further cases, ie none at all - however many or however few. That is the politically significant issue, it seems from what I read.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    geoffw said:



    On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.

    I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.

    I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
    To be honest that is just ignorant and an insult to all those in fishing communities

    It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats

    And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking

    You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times

    @Dura_Ace has a lot of anger inside him he can't control very well and feels he needs to release, hence the aggressive posts on here, his (self-declared) personal unpleasantness to those he vociferously disagrees with offline, and his dangerous driving.

    He needs help.
    !
    Just how many PBers have been injured by DA's dangerous driving?
  • Hmm, this could be quite clever. Boris caves in and rebrands his cave-in as a 'Australia-style' cave-in rather than a 'Canada-style' cave-in. That will please the loons, and also has the great advantage that the chaos in January (now inevitable even with any kind of deal at all) can be blamed on the EU unreasonably not giving him his 'Canada-style' deal.

    It's a narrow landing zone, to be sure, but you can see why he would try to go for it, having stupidly boxed himself in to the extent he has.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    Former chief scientific advisor with Pfizer Mike Yeadon says they are pushing the PCR testing "beyond any sensible limit, there's exaggeration...there's bad practice"

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1317033184224313345

    So the people in hospital are all exaggerating? Foxy should mention it to them on his rounds.
    He's definitely wrong about case numbers in London not going up.
    Hospitalizations haven't gone up much... yet...
    https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    edited October 2020

    I note that the figure of 20m votes doesn't include New York. Do we have any indication of early voting there? Is it different from other states?

    Don't they just weigh the votes in NY?
    NY has far more limited mail in voting than most other Dem heavy states, you need a good excuse to vote absentee there. Early voting opens on the 24th according to my notes there too.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right

    So is ballet, but look how offended people got about the very notion of retraining to get a better paid and more productive job.
    It is curious example of British snobbery, which disdains all practical/computing/engineering skills.

    We are paying the price for this foolishness with gradual national impoverishment.

    The subtext of the criticism is that a job in cyber is ... somehow dirty & low-grade & inferior ... compared to a job in ballet.
    And the subtext of the ad is that a job in cyber is superior to one in ballet.
    That one should abandon one's addle-headed dreams of spreading a little joy in this grim world with your beauty, Grace and skill in return for a larger, regular pay cheque from the man.
    National wealth in terms of pure pounds and pence.
    Wonderful!
    Absolute, ludicrous, impoverishing nonsense.

    A computer program can be just as graceful & skilful as a piece of ballet. A career in technology or engineering is just as creative and just as satisfying a career in the arts.

    There is no implication in the advertisement that Fatima is being forced to abandon her dreams.

    She should follow her dreams ... and the advert is saying her dreams could be in tech.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.

    Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
    Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
    I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...

    When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.

    Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.

    I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....

    *Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
    I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
    Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
    Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
    Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.

    As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
    Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' status the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
  • Hmm, this could be quite clever. Boris caves in and rebrands his cave-in as a 'Australia-style' cave-in rather than a 'Canada-style' cave-in. That will please the loons, and also has the great advantage that the chaos in January (now inevitable even with any kind of deal at all) can be blamed on the EU unreasonably not giving him his 'Canada-style' deal.

    It's a narrow landing zone, to be sure, but you can see why he would try to go for it, having stupidly boxed himself in to the extent he has.

    The blame game, though, is but a temporary thing. Having blamed the EU, then what?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Hmm, this could be quite clever. Boris caves in and rebrands his cave-in as a 'Australia-style' cave-in rather than a 'Canada-style' cave-in. That will please the loons, and also has the great advantage that the chaos in January (now inevitable even with any kind of deal at all) can be blamed on the EU unreasonably not giving him his 'Canada-style' deal.

    It's a narrow landing zone, to be sure, but you can see why he would try to go for it, having stupidly boxed himself in to the extent he has.

    And of course, Australia means we'll all have a bigger house with a swimming pool. And better weather than Canada too.
    What's not to like?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.

    Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
    Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
    I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...

    When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.

    Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.

    I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....

    *Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
    I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
    Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
    Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
    Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.

    As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
    Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
    No. Do I need to explain this slower to you?

    Comparing the same set of countries - developed of thirty years ago, versus the same set of developed countries today, the sclerotic EU is going backwards not forwards.

    That's not comparing the EU against developing nations, but developed ones. Like for like.

    Though if your argument now is that wither a country is an EU member ir not has only a marginal impact that would be a reason not to be one.
  • As night follows day.

    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1317008627438374917?s=20

    The only argument after the 'shock' Ipsos indy poll was about whether 'Brave RAF intercepts Russian intruder' or 'The oil is running out' would come first.

    'RAF fighter jets from Fife intercept Russian bombers off UK coastline'

    https://tinyurl.com/y49hp4xd
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Relevant to previoius thread - Chris Deerin in the Staggers has the same-ish mood music as Alex Massie:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2020/10/scotland-has-never-been-closer-independence-and-boris-johnson-blame

    "In place of innovative thinking from unionists, we instead have some old and frankly dangerous proposals raising their heads: put devolution back in the bottle; take powers away from Holyrood and back to Westminster; introduce technical gimmickry around turnout levels or majority thresholds so that something more than the traditional “50 per cent plus one” is required.

    The surge in support for independence appears to have broken free of party politics – there is a kind of transference taking place. This also happened in 2014, as SNP advisers admitted at the time: the sense that it was legitimate to vote Yes spread from friend to friend, brother to sister, colleague to colleague. Today, it’s not about what the politicians say – who can believe them, any of them, given their track record? It’s about what you see with your own eyes and feel in your own heart. It’s about having had enough – about wanting control, wanting a sympathetic demos and empathetic leadership. It seems to be about hope, and hope, as we know, is contagious.

    ...

    Boris Johnson is not the hero who will save the Union, but the anti-hero who, in attempting to dig out the weeds, is also uprooting the flowers. Scotland is being pushed towards leaving, and so has begun to pull. The centre, it seems, cannot hold."
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Brom said:

    Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1317062059910156288

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1317059604782735360
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Hmm, this could be quite clever. Boris caves in and rebrands his cave-in as a 'Australia-style' cave-in rather than a 'Canada-style' cave-in. That will please the loons, and also has the great advantage that the chaos in January (now inevitable even with any kind of deal at all) can be blamed on the EU unreasonably not giving him his 'Canada-style' deal.

    It's a narrow landing zone, to be sure, but you can see why he would try to go for it, having stupidly boxed himself in to the extent he has.

    The blame game, though, is but a temporary thing. Having blamed the EU, then what?

    Blame it some more.
    It's worked so far.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    As night follows day.

    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1317008627438374917?s=20

    The only argument after the 'shock' Ipsos indy poll was about whether 'Brave RAF intercepts Russian intruder' or 'The oil is running out' would come first.

    'RAF fighter jets from Fife intercept Russian bombers off UK coastline'

    https://tinyurl.com/y49hp4xd

    Nice pic of Ben Wyvis and the Firth of Cromarty from, I'd guess, Gallows Hill above the Sutors.
  • Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    We want privileged access to the Single Market, which currently accounts for around 45% to 50% of our exports. We cannot get that without a deal.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    guybrush said:

    Interesting article on the LockdownSkeptics website today from Dr Mike Yeadon. Suggests immunity levels are much higher than SAGE are assuming - on the face of it a convincing argument.

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

    Easily disprovable, we will see what happens in London over the coming weeks.

    Having skimmed the article and briefly listened, it seems plausible. I do think that some people have an inherent cross immunity, that may if not prevent the infection, may limit it (asymptomatic and no antibodies detected). So the threshold for herd immunity is lower. However we clearly do have people still getting ill. the confusion now is about what is a 'case'? Are the hundreds of students testing positive, often with no symptoms, real cases in the medical sense? Or should we have a tighter definition of what represents a Covid case?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Bears listening to for amusement, though.
    She was spectacularly disdainful of impeccably polite Martha Kearney for 'interrupting' her unresponsive, minutes long replies to questions.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889

    Hmm, this could be quite clever. Boris caves in and rebrands his cave-in as a 'Australia-style' cave-in rather than a 'Canada-style' cave-in. That will please the loons, and also has the great advantage that the chaos in January (now inevitable even with any kind of deal at all) can be blamed on the EU unreasonably not giving him his 'Canada-style' deal.

    It's a narrow landing zone, to be sure, but you can see why he would try to go for it, having stupidly boxed himself in to the extent he has.

    The blame game, though, is but a temporary thing. Having blamed the EU, then what?
    W
    e all suffer, of course. But it was not Johnson´s fault - he wasn´t there and didn´t do it. Not a very good excuse from somebody who is supposed to be in charge....

    Mind you, there are bound to be some people who do very well out of it.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited October 2020

    Hmm, this could be quite clever. Boris caves in and rebrands his cave-in as a 'Australia-style' cave-in rather than a 'Canada-style' cave-in. That will please the loons, and also has the great advantage that the chaos in January (now inevitable even with any kind of deal at all) can be blamed on the EU unreasonably not giving him his 'Canada-style' deal.

    It's a narrow landing zone, to be sure, but you can see why he would try to go for it, having stupidly boxed himself in to the extent he has.

    BJ has had some practice in coming down on a Landing Strip I believe.
  • I note that the figure of 20m votes doesn't include New York. Do we have any indication of early voting there? Is it different from other states?

    Don't they just weigh the votes in NY?
    Of course.

    But as you can tell from the state percentages, its omission (along with Louisiana, Washington, and some smaller states( means that early voting is closer to 20% generally, not 15%.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020

    Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    We want privileged access to the Single Market, which currently accounts for around 45% to 50% of our exports. We cannot get that without a deal.

    No, we're not actually that bothered whether we get privileged access to the Single Market or not.
  • @Philip_Thompson you need help with your paranoid delusions
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Scott_xP said:
    Hardly Churchillian delivery. Brexit supporters who think he means it are fooling themselves.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    RobD said:

    ONS - 30,800 per day at 8th October

    That's quite worrying, up to a third of the previous peak. Substantially over my arse.
    There is much denial at large. The virus is as dangerous as ever. We have little immunity because not many have had it. I'm coming around to the view that a national circuit breaker is a terrible idea but the best one.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_xP said:

    Brom said:

    Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1317062059910156288

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1317059604782735360
    Oh Scott, If twitter offers you some comfort then that's great. Sorry for your 2016 loss.
  • Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    We want privileged access to the Single Market, which currently accounts for around 45% to 50% of our exports. We cannot get that without a deal.

    No, we're not actually that bothered whether we get privileged access to the Single Market or not.

    You are not we, Phil.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    The ONS date resolved into (estimated infections per day -

    image
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062

    Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    All morning you have been trolling... Its a bit tedious to have so much stupid being sprayed over the site TBH. You cant count and you can only recycle provably ridiculous statements made by the dishonest and faintly delusional Tory spin machine.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    New English hospitalizations have doubled in past 10 days.
    At that rate we will reach previous peak by 6th November.

    To my untrained eye it looks to be accelerating vs. growth in September or at least growing at the same rate.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Brom said:

    Sorry for your 2016 loss.

    It was your loss.

    One day you will realise that.

    If you're lucky.
  • Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    We want privileged access to the Single Market, which currently accounts for around 45% to 50% of our exports. We cannot get that without a deal.

    No, we're not actually that bothered whether we get privileged access to the Single Market or not.

    You are not we, Phil.

    Well I voted for Boris, did you? Or did you lose the election?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Quote from the Guardian, from PM John son's statement
    "And so with high hearts and with complete confidence, we will prepare to embrace the alternative and we will prosper mightily as an independent free trading nation controlling our own borders, our fisheries and setting our own laws."

    One has to admit that the first phrase doesn't seem to fit all hearts and minds here.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Hardly Churchillian delivery. Brexit supporters who think he means it are fooling themselves.
    Well..

    https://youtu.be/8ZToP48Mrp8
  • Quote from the Guardian, from PM John son's statement
    "And so with high hearts and with complete confidence, we will prepare to embrace the alternative and we will prosper mightily as an independent free trading nation controlling our own borders, our fisheries and setting our own laws."

    One has to admit that the first phrase doesn't seem to fit all hearts and minds here.

    Has anyone who voted for the Government said they're upset yet?

    Or is it the people who couldn't accept defeat in 2016 and 2019 who are still complaining now when the Government does what it was elected to do?
  • So is this Shagger trying to apply the final bit of pressure on the EU? They probably can't believe that we think they think this will affect them.

    So two scenarios:
    1. As @Richard_Nabavi suggests this is a repositioning so that when we cave he can frame it as a massive triumph. We accept pretty much what the EU has on the table, but branded as an "Australia deal". No problems in January as the UK uses its sovereignty to maintain existing standards and customs arrangements. We have the right to have babies and the box is ready to receive the foetus
    2. We are going to call our bluff. Go WTO from 1st January with our non-existent infrastructure. Advice will quickly be issued to exporters to not only prep their drivers for a week's holiday in a Kent carpark but to stop exporting at all. For patriotic reasons.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_xP said:

    Brom said:

    Sorry for your 2016 loss.

    It was your loss.

    One day you will realise that.

    If you're lucky.
    Sorry, but its ruined your life and pretty much tipped you into insanity. I've got on with my life, its what us Eurosceptics have spent years working towards. You'll feel better when you're at peace with what has happened rather than trawling twitter for reassuring angry voices from your echo chamber.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right

    So is ballet, but look how offended people got about the very notion of retraining to get a better paid and more productive job.
    It is curious example of British snobbery, which disdains all practical/computing/engineering skills.

    We are paying the price for this foolishness with gradual national impoverishment.

    The subtext of the criticism is that a job in cyber is ... somehow dirty & low-grade & inferior ... compared to a job in ballet.
    And the subtext of the ad is that a job in cyber is superior to one in ballet.
    That one should abandon one's addle-headed dreams of spreading a little joy in this grim world with your beauty, Grace and skill in return for a larger, regular pay cheque from the man.
    National wealth in terms of pure pounds and pence.
    Wonderful!
    Absolute, ludicrous, impoverishing nonsense.

    A computer program can be just as graceful & skilful as a piece of ballet. A career in technology or engineering is just as creative and just as satisfying a career in the arts.

    There is no implication in the advertisement that Fatima is being forced to abandon her dreams.

    She should follow her dreams ... and the advert is saying her dreams could be in tech.
    I'm afraid we aren't going to see eye to eye on this one.
    Seldom do you pack a theatre to admire some coding.
    And if her dreams are in tech she hasn't dressed for it.
    Satisfying is in the eye of the beholder.
    If everyone's dream was to earn the biggest possible pay cheque society was be impoverished at a frightening rate.
    There'd be nobody to teach kids for just a start. Indeed there'd be no one to teach Fatima.
  • Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    We want privileged access to the Single Market, which currently accounts for around 45% to 50% of our exports. We cannot get that without a deal.

    No, we're not actually that bothered whether we get privileged access to the Single Market or not.
    Indeed. We're quite happy to switch the Goods Vehicle Movement Service on to process all the customs and standards checks that WTO access requires.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    So is this Shagger trying to apply the final bit of pressure on the EU? They probably can't believe that we think they think this will affect them.

    So two scenarios:
    1. As @Richard_Nabavi suggests this is a repositioning so that when we cave he can frame it as a massive triumph. We accept pretty much what the EU has on the table, but branded as an "Australia deal". No problems in January as the UK uses its sovereignty to maintain existing standards and customs arrangements. We have the right to have babies and the box is ready to receive the foetus
    2. We are going to call our bluff. Go WTO from 1st January with our non-existent infrastructure. Advice will quickly be issued to exporters to not only prep their drivers for a week's holiday in a Kent carpark but to stop exporting at all. For patriotic reasons.

    I wonder what Humble Pie tastes like? We might all be getting served a portion in January ;)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Brom said:

    You'll feel better when you're at peace with what has happened rather than trawling twitter for reassuring angry voices from your echo chamber.

    Hold on to that quote...

    It might help you in January
  • Quote from the Guardian, from PM John son's statement
    "And so with high hearts and with complete confidence, we will prepare to embrace the alternative and we will prosper mightily as an independent free trading nation controlling our own borders, our fisheries and setting our own laws."

    One has to admit that the first phrase doesn't seem to fit all hearts and minds here.

    Has anyone who voted for the Government said they're upset yet?

    Or is it the people who couldn't accept defeat in 2016 and 2019 who are still complaining now when the Government does what it was elected to do?
    Big G has had his moments.
    Of course today is not one of them, but another moment will come around fairly shortly I'm sure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Quote from the Guardian, from PM John son's statement
    "And so with high hearts and with complete confidence, we will prepare to embrace the alternative and we will prosper mightily as an independent free trading nation controlling our own borders, our fisheries and setting our own laws."

    One has to admit that the first phrase doesn't seem to fit all hearts and minds here.

    He doesn't speak for me that's for sure. It's utter bollocks.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    @Philip_Thompson you need help with your paranoid delusions

    Just ignore him
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_xP said:

    Brom said:

    You'll feel better when you're at peace with what has happened rather than trawling twitter for reassuring angry voices from your echo chamber.

    Hold on to that quote...

    It might help you in January
    How I laugh that 12 months ago you thought Brexit was over and you're still making nonsense predictions. I'll enjoy January just like I'm currently enjoying the negotiations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The last ones out of GB won't even get to turn out the lights, then ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."

    Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?
  • Boris's statement just shows once again another reason why the UK holds all the cards.

    There issues being disputed: Fish and the Level Playing Field (the EU trying to avoid a competitor on their doorstep).

    If there's no deal the French don't get our fish.
    If there's no deal the EU don't get the Level Playing Field.

    The EU can only get what they want if there's a deal. We can get what we want if we walk away. If another player can't fold then you hold the cards.

    We want privileged access to the Single Market, which currently accounts for around 45% to 50% of our exports. We cannot get that without a deal.

    No, we're not actually that bothered whether we get privileged access to the Single Market or not.

    You are not we, Phil.

    Well I voted for Boris, did you? Or did you lose the election?

    That you voted for a fool is no surprise. However, it does not mean that the UK does not want privileged access to the Single Market.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Quote from the Guardian, from PM John son's statement
    "And so with high hearts and with complete confidence, we will prepare to embrace the alternative and we will prosper mightily as an independent free trading nation controlling our own borders, our fisheries and setting our own laws."

    One has to admit that the first phrase doesn't seem to fit all hearts and minds here.

    Has anyone who voted for the Government said they're upset yet?

    Or is it the people who couldn't accept defeat in 2016 and 2019 who are still complaining now when the Government does what it was elected to do?
    Dozens of us, you are just too busy posting bollocks to pay attention.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Hardly Churchillian delivery. Brexit supporters who think he means it are fooling themselves.
    It's the Jim Hacker / Humphrey Appleby approach.

    The more you are going to keep on talking, the more you have to say "it's over".

    The weaker and less prepared you are, the more you have to go on about being strong and ready.
  • If there is no deal does that mean we don't have to pay the £50bn settlement with the EU or have we paid that already and got sod all in return?

    Anyone?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2020

    So is this Shagger trying to apply the final bit of pressure on the EU? They probably can't believe that we think they think this will affect them.

    So two scenarios:
    1. As @Richard_Nabavi suggests this is a repositioning so that when we cave he can frame it as a massive triumph. We accept pretty much what the EU has on the table, but branded as an "Australia deal". No problems in January as the UK uses its sovereignty to maintain existing standards and customs arrangements. We have the right to have babies and the box is ready to receive the foetus
    2. We are going to call our bluff. Go WTO from 1st January with our non-existent infrastructure. Advice will quickly be issued to exporters to not only prep their drivers for a week's holiday in a Kent carpark but to stop exporting at all. For patriotic reasons.

    It's 1. Not only would it be beyond loony even for this government to crash out in acrimony, the statement Boris made is quite explicit that he is still desperate for a deal:

    ".. of course we're willing to discuss the practicalities with our friends - where a lot of progress has already been made, by the way, on such issues as social security, and aviation, nuclear cooperation, and so on."

    All of which progress is still on offer, provided he implements the Withdrawal Agreement in full, removes the offending clauses from the Internal Market Bill, signs up the level playing-field arrangements, and allows EU fishermen to continue fishing in British waters.
  • So is this Shagger trying to apply the final bit of pressure on the EU? They probably can't believe that we think they think this will affect them.

    So two scenarios:
    1. As @Richard_Nabavi suggests this is a repositioning so that when we cave he can frame it as a massive triumph. We accept pretty much what the EU has on the table, but branded as an "Australia deal". No problems in January as the UK uses its sovereignty to maintain existing standards and customs arrangements. We have the right to have babies and the box is ready to receive the foetus
    2. We are going to call our bluff. Go WTO from 1st January with our non-existent infrastructure. Advice will quickly be issued to exporters to not only prep their drivers for a week's holiday in a Kent carpark but to stop exporting at all. For patriotic reasons.

    I wonder what Humble Pie tastes like? We might all be getting served a portion in January ;)
    We absolutely won't. The non-existence of the GVMS or the customs officials to run it will absolutely be the fault of the EU. Their dastardly efforts to distract us with negotiations is why we have utterly failed to create the infrastructure needed to go WTO.

    Anyway, they have promised to pay the vast billions in red tape that UK businesses will be tied up in once eventually we actually have the ability to run an actual border.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    glw said:

    Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right

    So is ballet, but look how offended people got about the very notion of retraining to get a better paid and more productive job.
    It is curious example of British snobbery, which disdains all practical/computing/engineering skills.

    We are paying the price for this foolishness with gradual national impoverishment.

    The subtext of the criticism is that a job in cyber is ... somehow dirty & low-grade & inferior ... compared to a job in ballet.
    And the subtext of the ad is that a job in cyber is superior to one in ballet.
    That one should abandon one's addle-headed dreams of spreading a little joy in this grim world with your beauty, Grace and skill in return for a larger, regular pay cheque from the man.
    National wealth in terms of pure pounds and pence.
    Wonderful!
    Absolute, ludicrous, impoverishing nonsense.

    A computer program can be just as graceful & skilful as a piece of ballet. A career in technology or engineering is just as creative and just as satisfying a career in the arts.

    There is no implication in the advertisement that Fatima is being forced to abandon her dreams.

    She should follow her dreams ... and the advert is saying her dreams could be in tech.
    I'm afraid we aren't going to see eye to eye on this one.
    Seldom do you pack a theatre to admire some coding.
    And if her dreams are in tech she hasn't dressed for it.
    Satisfying is in the eye of the beholder.
    If everyone's dream was to earn the biggest possible pay cheque society was be impoverished at a frightening rate.
    There'd be nobody to teach kids for just a start. Indeed there'd be no one to teach Fatima.
    And bluntly, whilst there are polymaths who are good at both, what if Fatima's talents aren't in the mathematical thinking behind cyber?

    In the same way that I'd make a terrible ballet dancer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.

    Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
    Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
    I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...

    When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.

    Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.

    I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....

    *Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
    I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
    Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
    Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
    Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.

    As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
    Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
    No. Do I need to explain this slower to you?

    Comparing the same set of countries - developed of thirty years ago, versus the same set of developed countries today, the sclerotic EU is going backwards not forwards.

    That's not comparing the EU against developing nations, but developed ones. Like for like.

    Though if your argument now is that wither a country is an EU member ir not has only a marginal impact that would be a reason not to be one.
    Not slower, you need to make a start. The proposition you table is -

    EU membership has materially reduced the growth of its constituent member states.

    Go for it.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."

    Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?

    Surely it's double or triple blind. How would he/she know?

  • So is this Shagger trying to apply the final bit of pressure on the EU? They probably can't believe that we think they think this will affect them.

    So two scenarios:
    1. As @Richard_Nabavi suggests this is a repositioning so that when we cave he can frame it as a massive triumph. We accept pretty much what the EU has on the table, but branded as an "Australia deal". No problems in January as the UK uses its sovereignty to maintain existing standards and customs arrangements. We have the right to have babies and the box is ready to receive the foetus
    2. We are going to call our bluff. Go WTO from 1st January with our non-existent infrastructure. Advice will quickly be issued to exporters to not only prep their drivers for a week's holiday in a Kent carpark but to stop exporting at all. For patriotic reasons.

    It's 1. Not only would it be beyond loony even for even this government to crash out in acrimony, the statement Boris made is quite explicit that he is still desperate for a deal:

    ".. of course we're willing to discuss the practicalities with our friends - where a lot of progress has already been made, by the way, on such issues as social security, and aviation, nuclear cooperation, and so on."

    All of which progress is still on offer, provided he implements the Withdrawal Agreement in full, removes the offending clauses from the Internal Market Bill, signs up the level playing-filed arrangements, and allows EU fishermen to continue fishing in British waters.
    EU fishermen? In our waters? With the access rights that we sold them? An outrage sir, why do you hate Britain so much?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Hmm, this could be quite clever. Boris caves in and rebrands his cave-in as a 'Australia-style' cave-in rather than a 'Canada-style' cave-in. That will please the loons, and also has the great advantage that the chaos in January (now inevitable even with any kind of deal at all) can be blamed on the EU unreasonably not giving him his 'Canada-style' deal.

    It's a narrow landing zone, to be sure, but you can see why he would try to go for it, having stupidly boxed himself in to the extent he has.

    And what's your pessimistic scenario ... ?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    An excellent turn of events, the nice pubs will get a little time off to be refurbished to serve only domestically made Carling Special Brew and we can spend 2021 getting bladdered from morning till night.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

    If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?

    We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
    It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.

    Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.

    We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
    I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
    Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.

    Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
    Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
    I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...

    When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.

    Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.

    I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....

    *Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
    I see. Well, balance etc. Deregulation liberates animal spirits, yes, but OTOH, you don't want to sacrifice everything in pursuit of technical advancement and growth. The notion of Europe as "sclerotic" continent stuck in its ways and risk averse while other parts of the world hum with dynamism and a buccaneering joie de vivre, I don't look at it like that. I think it's just a cliche and misses the point. The golden rule is a scientific not economic one - the conversion of potential to kinetic. Meaning that in general that the countries who will grow the most are those with the most room to do so, i.e. those who are "less developed" now. This is not us, inside or outside of the European Union.
    Look at other developed nations across the globe over the past three decades since the EEC turned into the EU and answer one simple question for me please: can you name any two developed nations the EU has outperformed in your eyes and why?
    Fools errand with terrific scope for taking us off the point. The illuminating comparison is the growth of developed nations vs that of less developed nations. This demonstrates the point I'm making. Then we could - if we really want to - review the growth of individual developed nations relative to each other in order to glean further marginal insights. Do you want to do that? Attempt to glean further marginal insights? If so, we need a table of all the developed nations with cumulative growth rates over (say) 5,10,25 years.
    Unless you think the EU is the only developed region in the world, then its not a fools errand.

    As a share of the developed world the EU is shrinking. It is sclerotic and failing.
    Developed countries are shrinking relative to developing countries. As 'developing' attains 'developed' the size of the latter grouping grows relative to the former. And each individual developed nation shrinks relative to this greater aggregate. Whether a country is an EU member or not has only a marginal impact. If you wish to argue with any credibility that being in the European Single Market materially hampers growth you have much work to do.
    No. Do I need to explain this slower to you?

    Comparing the same set of countries - developed of thirty years ago, versus the same set of developed countries today, the sclerotic EU is going backwards not forwards.

    That's not comparing the EU against developing nations, but developed ones. Like for like.

    Though if your argument now is that wither a country is an EU member ir not has only a marginal impact that would be a reason not to be one.
    Not slower, you need to make a start. The proposition you make is -

    EU membership has materially reduced the growth of its constituent member states.

    Go for it.
    OK here we go: Developed EU member states have declined relative to developed non-EU members.

    That means either the EU is a drag on its members states, in which case we're right to leave.
    Or it means that EU membership is inconsequential to growth, in which case we're not wrong to leave.

    Which do you think it is? Heads I win, tails you lose.
  • Scott_xP said:
    We're we the ones that wanted "intensification"?
  • Pro_Rata said:

    An excellent turn of events, the nice pubs will get a little time off to be refurbished to serve only domestically made Carling Special Brew and we can spend 2021 getting bladdered from morning till night.

    Not after 10! Or with anyone you know.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    Brom said:

    Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1317062059910156288

    Like when the EU said they would not and could not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, until they did.
  • The reaction of GBP/EUR is quite informative. The immediate drop of half a cent in less than a minute on Boris's announcement tells us who is (more) fucked if there is no deal. The subsequent rapid rebound tells us how seriously Boris's statements should be taken.
  • Scott_xP said:
    We're we the ones that wanted "intensification"?
    The EU made a big song and dance about removing the word intensification from their statement. 😂
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    Meanwhile in the US... Trump and the GOP really do seem to be heading towards the shellacking of the century. The number of Republican stalwarts, from Cindy McCain to the daughter of the increasingly embattled Rudy Guiliani are coming out for Biden. So the question is if AZ, FL, MI, WI etc are all flipping, where does it stop? SC is still in the likely Republican column, but it doesn`t look that likely to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    geoffw said:

    I'm wary of rumour-mongering either way, but a trusted friend who is a volunteer in a vaccine trial in Nottingham tells me, "They say it is looking very promising. They hope to start vaccinating health care workers around Christmas, then it will be the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on, with a general roll out around early spring. So there is definitely room for optimism."

    Question for pharma people - this sounds excellent, but does it make any sense? When I worked in pharma, they didn't peek at the results till the trials were finished (and my friend is still having regular tests so it's not). And if they're not finished, is it conceivable that people will be getting vaccinations by Christmas?

    Surely it's double or triple blind. How would he/she know?

    How will I get past the huge queue for the influenza jab to get into the queue for the covid jab?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Brom said:

    Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1317062059910156288

    Like when the EU said they would not and could not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, until they did.
    Yes, to give one that was more to their liking.
  • So is this Shagger trying to apply the final bit of pressure on the EU? They probably can't believe that we think they think this will affect them.

    So two scenarios:
    1. As @Richard_Nabavi suggests this is a repositioning so that when we cave he can frame it as a massive triumph. We accept pretty much what the EU has on the table, but branded as an "Australia deal". No problems in January as the UK uses its sovereignty to maintain existing standards and customs arrangements. We have the right to have babies and the box is ready to receive the foetus
    2. We are going to call our bluff. Go WTO from 1st January with our non-existent infrastructure. Advice will quickly be issued to exporters to not only prep their drivers for a week's holiday in a Kent carpark but to stop exporting at all. For patriotic reasons.

    It's 1. Not only would it be beyond loony even for even this government to crash out in acrimony, the statement Boris made is quite explicit that he is still desperate for a deal:

    ".. of course we're willing to discuss the practicalities with our friends - where a lot of progress has already been made, by the way, on such issues as social security, and aviation, nuclear cooperation, and so on."

    All of which progress is still on offer, provided he implements the Withdrawal Agreement in full, removes the offending clauses from the Internal Market Bill, signs up the level playing-filed arrangements, and allows EU fishermen to continue fishing in British waters.
    EU fishermen? In our waters? With the access rights that we sold them? An outrage sir, why do you hate Britain so much?
    French quotas were not bought from us. If you still don't understand that you need to learn the difference.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited October 2020
    Fortnight Covid 'fire-break' lockdown within days

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54566566

    Fire Breaker, Circuit Breaker, Tier 3....its all getting very silly.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Brom said:

    Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1317062059910156288

    Like when the EU said they would and could not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, until they did.
    Not that silliness again - the EU simply accepted their preferred option of a border in the Irish Sea, which Theresa had hitherto rejected.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255

    Pro_Rata said:

    An excellent turn of events, the nice pubs will get a little time off to be refurbished to serve only domestically made Carling Special Brew and we can spend 2021 getting bladdered from morning till night.

    Not after 10! Or with anyone you know.
    That type of drinking doesn't require friends or any sense of the time of day.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    So is this Shagger trying to apply the final bit of pressure on the EU? They probably can't believe that we think they think this will affect them.

    So two scenarios:
    1. As @Richard_Nabavi suggests this is a repositioning so that when we cave he can frame it as a massive triumph. We accept pretty much what the EU has on the table, but branded as an "Australia deal". No problems in January as the UK uses its sovereignty to maintain existing standards and customs arrangements. We have the right to have babies and the box is ready to receive the foetus
    2. We are going to call our bluff. Go WTO from 1st January with our non-existent infrastructure. Advice will quickly be issued to exporters to not only prep their drivers for a week's holiday in a Kent carpark but to stop exporting at all. For patriotic reasons.

    I wonder what Humble Pie tastes like? We might all be getting served a portion in January ;)
    Deer guts. Which might be all that that is in the shops.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    Scott_xP said:

    Brom said:

    Such a change under David Frost from the May days. Feels like we're calling the shots and the pace of the talks these days and getting our statements out quicker than the EU. 18 months ago it felt like they were controlling the talks and the briefings. Never felt happier with the negotiations than the last few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1317062059910156288

    Like when the EU said they would not and could not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, until they did.
    There are always some Belgian communists holding up the deal until there's a deal. I don't know why EU negotiations are always like this, it's bloody tedious watching the two sides playing these games.
  • The reaction of GBP/EUR is quite informative. The immediate drop of half a cent in less than a minute on Boris's announcement tells us who is (more) fucked if there is no deal. The subsequent rapid rebound tells us how seriously Boris's statements should be taken.

    Sterling falling doesn't make us fucked it makes our exporters more competitive. So our exporters may face some tariffs but the exchange rate change cancels that out.

    On the other hand EU exporters to the UK face the double whammy of a currency fluctuation and tariffs too.

    POEUWAS.
This discussion has been closed.