Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Yes. And the EU is Germany. And France. And Spain. etc etc. The GDP of the EU is all of those countries added together. I've found an instructional video which may help you.
On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.
1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).
That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.
2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;
3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout
Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:
1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.
2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.
It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
1.15 before commission on the Dems to win the popular vote looks a relative steal.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
No the block totals don't matter. What matters is the per capita for each.
The EU has a net trade surplus with the UK whether block or per capita. The UK has a net trade deficit with the EU whether block or per capita.
The idea that having a trade surplus with somebody somehow makes you stronger in negotiations is crap. It misunderstands what trade is for. The best outcome for a country is not to run a huge surplus with everybody, nor is it to run a huge deficit. Imports serve an important role in keping a country competitive and meeting needs more cheaply than they can be met at home, thereby improving domestic welfare. And exports lower a country's standard of life, since the goods are produced at home and not consumed. They are therefore only desirable if they help you finance imports of goods you need and can't produce.
Focusing on the trade balance is like focusing on the budget deficit - it completely misunderstands what economic welfare is all about. The point of trade agreements is not to exploit or improve the balance of trade, but to maximise the total amount of trade. It is positive sum, not zero sum, or at any rate it should be.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Definitely in the head for sure
You shouldn't be laughing malcolm - this bullshit about the UK being weak is the exact same bullshit about Scotland being weak if Scotland goes independent.
You recognise it as nonsense for one, you should do the same for the other.
you mean weak like as in Denmark , Sweden and other small similar countries with less resources than Scotland or as in being poor as a colony of the UK.
That's my point exactly - Denmark, Sweden and may I suggest you could have said Norway and others too . . . the idea that more population = better is total and utter bullshit. Always has been.
On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.
1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).
That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.
2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;
3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout
Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:
1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.
2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.
It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
This is done. I'm considering selling all I possess and laying Trump at 2.98. Going to be discussing that with my wife this afternoon. I have points in the bank from erecting a wardrobe recently.
Better keep that shirt on your back in that wardrobe then. Just in case.
lol, yes, I'll keep the John Lewis check one. (Got a few hedges on is the boring truth.)
The most surprising thing about the US election is the stubbornness of the betting markets. Biden has a ten-point lead, twenty million votes have already been cast and registered, with millions more no doubt already in the post or being processed, election day is just two and a half weeks away, the forecasting models such as 538 and the Economist all agree that Biden has an 85% to 90% chance of winning and all have their weighted forecasts at over 340 Biden ECVs, and yet the markets are stuck at an implied 34% probability of Trump bringing off a win, and the spreads are stuck at around 321 Biden ECVs.
Even if there is skulduggery the markets are grossly overestimating the ability of Trump to pull that off. He's not Putin and doesn't and can't pull the strings of every federal and state employee in the country.
It will be the dog that doesn't bark. The bigger risk to Biden (from a stability/legitimacy point of view) is the time it takes to count the votes and declare a result.
California is a Democratic fiefdom and they managed to footshoot all by themselves last time by taking weeks and weeks to declare.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
The most surprising thing about the US election is the stubbornness of the betting markets. Biden has a ten-point lead, twenty million votes have already been cast and registered, with millions more no doubt already in the post or being processed, election day is just two and a half weeks away, the forecasting models such as 538 and the Economist all agree that Biden has an 85% to 90% chance of winning and all have their weighted forecasts at over 340 Biden ECVs, and yet the markets are stuck at an implied 34% probability of Trump bringing off a win, and the spreads are stuck at around 321 Biden ECVs.
Toyah Willcox, it really is.
My long time prediction that Trump would be 5 on eve of poll is looking shaky.
Always said the red in the Red Rose was a danger warning.
Tis indeed - a danger warning to Yorkists to stay clear. ( do of course wax lyrical about the red rose county having lived in the white rose county longer...
I see we're now having a largely pointless argument about whether the UK is richer than the EU. My thoughts on a trade deal have always been that whilst we're offering them a market of $3tn they're offering us a market of $12tn.
An awful lot of guff is spoken about punching above our weight etc but so often what matters - other than brute force - is what do you have to offer. It's no wonder the influence the US has had since it can offer people money/resources/military equipment etc.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Holy crap, how in the name of the wee man can you come to that conclusion
UK GDP per capita $42,944 EU GDP per capita $34,883
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Yes. And the EU is Germany. And France. And Spain. etc etc. The GDP of the EU is all of those countries added together. I've found an instructional video which may help you.
One group of restaurants (with restaurants in London and Manchester) is taking a “nod and a wink” approach to the new restrictions:-
“With the news that as of Saturday London will be in Tier 2 (which effectively adds no household mixing to our list of restrictions) we are getting in touch to let you know what that means for our 6 London restaurants and for you.
The good news is that we’ve already been dealing with more or less identical restrictions in Manchester since July, and although we understand that they are likely to affect how you use restaurants, the last two months have taught us that the restaurant experience is largely unchanged. Hawksmoor Manchester has remained a vibrant, enjoyable restaurant ever since.
We will be in touch with everyone who has a reservation to check what they want to do, and to let them know about the new rules. We will do so for new bookings at the point of reservation, confirmation and, if necessary, on arrival at Hawksmoor. We will do everything to remind people of their responsibilities (for example, the whole Arsenal or Tottenham first XI walk in then I think we have reasonable grounds for suspicion … in cases where there is a reasonable doubt please don’t be offended if we ask).”
Since restaurants cannot check and have no investigatory powers anyway, how many places will be doing something similar?
Of course restaurants in small places where the staff know their customers can’t do this. Nor does this approach deal with spooked customers who decide not to go out.
On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.
I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.
I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
To be honest that is just ignorant and an insult to all those in fishing communities
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking
You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.
Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.
We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.
Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
I had an entertaining conversation with a certain MP once. She decried the fact that the current government wasn't pushing forward in space technology - falling behind etc etc...
When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.
Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.
I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....
*Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
No the block totals don't matter. What matters is the per capita for each.
The EU has a net trade surplus with the UK whether block or per capita. The UK has a net trade deficit with the EU whether block or per capita.
But if per capita is what matters, you can't run the "look how much more of world GDP is in developing countries" argument. Because that's all about adding up the money of lots and lots of relatively poor people. Biggish percentage growth from a low base.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.
Indeed and that inflexibility is what is wrong with the EU and why the EU is a failing sclerotic region that is shrinking rapidly as a share of the world economy.
We should embrace our flexibility in full, walk away and trade on a global not European stage as flexibly as we can.
I'd have thought it was obvious the primary reason for the EU's declining share of the world economy is simply because it is developed, rather than developing economy. Pretty much the same applies to any other first world region. It is therefore a nonsense to suggest that this is a sensible reason to leave the EU.
Compare Europe against other developed economies (not just developing ones) and the same fact is true.
Look at Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, America etc . . . Europe is sclerotic and being left behind.
Europe is not "sclerotic", Philip. It's mature. Is a mighty oak sclerotic? Would you point and call it that if you came across one? No. You'd gaze at it in wonder. At least I hope that's the case.
A mighty oak doesn't stop growing or sprouting new leaves, if it does it dies.
Europe is not a mighty oak, it is sclerotic and falling behind.
Other developed nations like Canada, Australia, America are growing more and leaving Europe in its wake.
The idea that having a trade surplus with somebody somehow makes you stronger in negotiations is crap. It misunderstands what trade is for. The best outcome for a country is not to run a huge surplus with everybody, nor is it to run a huge deficit. Imports serve an important role in keping a country competitive and meeting needs more cheaply than they can be met at home, thereby improving domestic welfare. And exports lower a country's standard of life, since the goods are produced at home and not consumed. They are therefore only desirable if they help you finance imports of goods you need and can't produce.
Focusing on the trade balance is like focusing on the budget deficit - it completely misunderstands what economic welfare is all about. The point of trade agreements is not to exploit or improve the balance of trade, but to maximise the total amount of trade. It is positive sum, not zero sum, or at any rate it should be.
That's true in an ideal system (the spherical cow in a vacuum) but in a system where China and Germany play the beggar-thy-neighbour game with trade it's not as black and white as that.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
No the block totals don't matter. What matters is the per capita for each.
The EU has a net trade surplus with the UK whether block or per capita. The UK has a net trade deficit with the EU whether block or per capita.
But if per capita is what matters, you can't run the "look how much more of world GDP is in developing countries" argument. Because that's all about adding up the money of lots and lots of relatively poor people. Biggish percentage growth from a low base.
But maybe you're right.
Yes I can, look at GDP per capita for Europe versus other developed nations and come back to me.
The idea that having a trade surplus with somebody somehow makes you stronger in negotiations is crap. It misunderstands what trade is for. The best outcome for a country is not to run a huge surplus with everybody, nor is it to run a huge deficit. Imports serve an important role in keping a country competitive and meeting needs more cheaply than they can be met at home, thereby improving domestic welfare. And exports lower a country's standard of life, since the goods are produced at home and not consumed. They are therefore only desirable if they help you finance imports of goods you need and can't produce.
Focusing on the trade balance is like focusing on the budget deficit - it completely misunderstands what economic welfare is all about. The point of trade agreements is not to exploit or improve the balance of trade, but to maximise the total amount of trade. It is positive sum, not zero sum, or at any rate it should be.
✔️ It is a kind of last-gasp mercantalism. Bilateral deficits and surpluses are even less meaningful that a country's overall trade position. It reflects the idea that tariffs should be imposed to protect industries, whereas what really matters is welfare - i.e. in large part consumption. Our aim should be to maximise that, so eliminate tariffs on our imports no matter what the other side wants to do.
The idea that having a trade surplus with somebody somehow makes you stronger in negotiations is crap. It misunderstands what trade is for. The best outcome for a country is not to run a huge surplus with everybody, nor is it to run a huge deficit. Imports serve an important role in keping a country competitive and meeting needs more cheaply than they can be met at home, thereby improving domestic welfare. And exports lower a country's standard of life, since the goods are produced at home and not consumed. They are therefore only desirable if they help you finance imports of goods you need and can't produce.
Focusing on the trade balance is like focusing on the budget deficit - it completely misunderstands what economic welfare is all about. The point of trade agreements is not to exploit or improve the balance of trade, but to maximise the total amount of trade. It is positive sum, not zero sum, or at any rate it should be.
Also fallacious is the notion that having a deficit confers strength. We have a deficit on trade with the RoW. Does this mean the world needs us more than we need the world? Only the most extreme of British exceptionalists would believe that.
I remember feeling joyful about the long queues to cast votes in South Africa's first election with universal suffrage in 1994. When I see long queues of Americans in 2020, I can only wonder why elections can't be managed better. Come 1965, even Southern blacks could vote in the USA. So I'd say they've had universal suffrage for 55 years, even while the pictures suggest they're a new to it as South Africa was in 1994. But I suppose it's good if those who care about democracy are more willing to wait 11 hours to vote than those who don't.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
It is something that anyone with half a brain can work out. Brexiteers continue in denial about it. The next thick arse idea is that we would get a good trade deal from Donald Trump, assuming he manages a Houdini like escape from all indications of defeat. You essentially have to be either economically illiterate or just lying to say that Brexit will be an economically good thing for the UK.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
It is something that anyone with half a brain can work out. Brexiteers continue in denial about it. The next thick arse idea is that we would get a good trade deal from Donald Trump, assuming he manages a Houdini like escape from all indications of defeat. You essentially have to be either economically illiterate or just lying to say that Brexit will be an economically good thing for the UK.
Think the first, amazing what having an economics degree does for your all seeing knowledge
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
What part of PER CAPITA do you not understand?
€13tn between 447 million people is €29k per capita. €2.3tn between 67 million people is €34.3k per capita.
I remember feeling joyful about the long queues to cast votes in South Africa's first election with universal suffrage in 1994. When I see long queues of Americans in 2020, I can only wonder why elections can't be managed better. Come 1965, even Southern blacks could vote in the USA. So I'd say they've had universal suffrage for 55 years, even while the pictures suggest they're a new to it as South Africa was in 1994. But I suppose it's good if those who care about democracy are more willing to wait 11 hours to vote than those who don't.
In the US context the election lines are a feature, to those responsible for cutting the number of voting stations etc, rather than a bug.
Look at the districts where voting stations are removed, the demographics there, and the political party the removers belong to.
It doesn't take very much looking to see a pattern emerge.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Yes. And the EU is Germany. And France. And Spain. etc etc. The GDP of the EU is all of those countries added together. I've found an instructional video which may help you.
Today, of course, there'd be a huge twitterstorm and BBC headline articles over the fact Blackadder uttered "ape creatures of the Indus" in that.
No-one would care about the brilliance of the show and its superb comedy.
From who? These imaginary people live rent free in your head
Special interest groups, artist organisation, some anti-racism campaigners, marxist BLM advocates, the far-Left, numerous mouthpieces on Twitter and their acolytes..
I wish they were all imaginary but the last six months has provided all the evidence one would ever need about how this is the first thing they look for in any production.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
It is something that anyone with half a brain can work out. Brexiteers continue in denial about it. The next thick arse idea is that we would get a good trade deal from Donald Trump, assuming he manages a Houdini like escape from all indications of defeat. You essentially have to be either economically illiterate or just lying to say that Brexit will be an economically good thing for the UK.
Think the first, amazing what having an economics degree does for your all seeing knowledge
If one person has one pizza to eat by himself, or 30 people have two pizzas of the same size to share between all of then, who do you think is going to go hungry? The one with only one pizza, or the 30 with two to share between them?
On topic, thanks Mike for a very informative header. A few thoughts.
1. How much is cannibalisation? From what I have seen of the NC figures, and from what Bitzer has said, it seems like 75pc plus of the early voters voted in 2016 with very few non-16 voters and the rest were not registered in 2016 (I think the ratio was 1:4 or thereabouts).
That is fine and, if the Hunter Biden issues escalate (the NY Post seems to be doubling down), it’s good to get the votes banked.
2. Related to this, it’s worth remembering that in NC, PA and FL, the Republicans are running ahead in new registrations. So, if the bulk of the additional “new” votes are coming from people not registered in 2016 than non-2016 voters, it is likely the Republicans will catch up in those states;
3. There is some evidence out of MI and WI that very Republican counties are seeing high early voting turnout rates. Given the demographic issues, that would probably be a good indicator for OH and PA. it might also suggest a high WWC turnout
Clearly a lot of it is 'cannibalisation', in the sense of just bringing forward votes that would have been placed anyway. And it is also true that in general the most committed voters are those who vote early. Nonetheless, the overall picture is good for Biden for a couple of reasons:
1. It's looking like a higher turnout than in 2016, suggesting that some of those who couldn't be bothered last time because they were unenthused by Hillary are voting this time.
2. A vote in the bag today is worth N prospective votes in the box on November 3rd, where N is some number fractionally greater than 1. A big advantage on this protects Biden to some extent against a last-minute drift towards Trump, and against the likelihood that some of those intending to vote in person on the day (or at the last moment in early voting) won't in fact do so, either because they don't get round to it, or because voting is disturbed by Covid-19 issues or some other problems.
It's hard to quantify how big any such effects are, but the bottom line is that with a current ten-point or so lead, the more and earlier that Biden can get that advantage solidified into cast votes, the better for him.
The polls might be wrong, but the only poll of voters already voted I've has a ~ 54% lead for Biden. He is clearly millions of votes in front with votes already cast.
This is done. I'm considering selling all I possess and laying Trump at 2.98. Going to be discussing that with my wife this afternoon. I have points in the bank from erecting a wardrobe recently.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Holy crap, how in the name of the wee man can you come to that conclusion
UK GDP per capita $42,944 EU GDP per capita $34,883
Is 42,944 more or less than 34,883?
We really are adding beans aren't we?
UK: $42,944 x 66m = $2.834tn EU: $34,883 x 447m = $15.593tn
I'm still reasonably confident that the EU's $15.6tn size is a bigger number than the UK's $2.8tn size.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
No the block totals don't matter. What matters is the per capita for each.
The EU has a net trade surplus with the UK whether block or per capita. The UK has a net trade deficit with the EU whether block or per capita.
But if per capita is what matters, you can't run the "look how much more of world GDP is in developing countries" argument. Because that's all about adding up the money of lots and lots of relatively poor people. Biggish percentage growth from a low base.
But maybe you're right.
Yes I can, look at GDP per capita for Europe versus other developed nations and come back to me.
But it's not about what the numbers are, it's about which numbers are relevant for conferring power in trade negotiations.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
No the block totals don't matter. What matters is the per capita for each.
The EU has a net trade surplus with the UK whether block or per capita. The UK has a net trade deficit with the EU whether block or per capita.
But if per capita is what matters, you can't run the "look how much more of world GDP is in developing countries" argument. Because that's all about adding up the money of lots and lots of relatively poor people. Biggish percentage growth from a low base.
But maybe you're right.
He's not right. The key metric is exports to the trading partner as a % of your GDP. The fact that they have a surplus with us isn't totally irrelevant, but it is only relevant because it shows that they export a lot to us. But because their economy is so big, those exports are quite small relative to their exports to other economies and relative to their domestic consumption. Whereas although we export a bit less to them, our economy is much much smaller than theirs, as are our exports to other countries, so we can afford to lose those exports much less than they can. It's really not that complicated, but to illustrate the argument we can consider the case of the UK and Ireland. We run a trade surplus of around £14bn with Ireland - in other words, our exports to Ireland are much larger than their exports to us. Ireland us also richer than us. Does that mean that if we were negotiating an FTA with Ireland alone that they would hold all the cards? No of course not, because we are a far bigger economy than they are and our exports to them are a far smaller share of our overall economy than theirs are. We would hold all the cards. And that of course is why Ireland will never leave the EU.
On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.
I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.
I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
To be honest that is just ignorant and an insult to all those in fishing communities
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking
You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times
@Dura_Ace has a lot of anger inside him he can't control very well and feels he needs to release, hence the aggressive posts on here, his (self-declared) personal unpleasantness to those he vociferously disagrees with offline, and his dangerous driving.
The most surprising thing about the US election is the stubbornness of the betting markets. Biden has a ten-point lead, twenty million votes have already been cast and registered, with millions more no doubt already in the post or being processed, election day is just two and a half weeks away, the forecasting models such as 538 and the Economist all agree that Biden has an 85% to 90% chance of winning and all have their weighted forecasts at over 340 Biden ECVs, and yet the markets are stuck at an implied 34% probability of Trump bringing off a win, and the spreads are stuck at around 321 Biden ECVs.
Toyah Willcox, it really is.
My long time prediction that Trump would be 5 on eve of poll is looking shaky.
Yes, I've decided Biden probably won't get much shorter than 1.5. Much as it astonishes me, the market just doesn't seem willing to show any confidence on him and his price is likely to be longer than Clinton in 2016 or Obama in 2008/12 despite him being in at least as good a position (if not better) than any of them.
It actually liberates me a bit. I'm happy waiting with some cash for election day, I can probably get the same odds or close enough as I can now but with no time left for anything to change. I'm tempted to keep some back for the night itself if the market misinterprets early results. I'll decide nearer the time.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Yes. And the EU is Germany. And France. And Spain. etc etc. The GDP of the EU is all of those countries added together. I've found an instructional video which may help you.
The EU is all of those countries averaged together not added together. The EU is less than Germany not more than it.
If you have one rich person, or if you have one rich person and 7 unemployed people pooled together, then which group is richer?
I really think you ought to go and try and get a job rather than spending all your time on here. I suggest you try something that doesn't require any understanding of mathematics or economics.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
I agree fully. It's what you bring to the table I'm afraid. Also it's easier to make up 3% when you have an enormous trade area. I personally think Philip loves to troll, and good luck to him.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Yes. And the EU is Germany. And France. And Spain. etc etc. The GDP of the EU is all of those countries added together. I've found an instructional video which may help you.
We see that 11 EU members have higher PPP GDP per capita than the UK does, and several are much higher. Of those who have lower numbers, these are not that much lower. Several, such as the Baltics, are also growing a lot faster than the UK, and will overtake the UK in the foreseeable future.
Partly as a result, the bond markets rate Gilts at about the same level as Estonian sovereign paper, and a lot less than not just Germany, but Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Finland etc. (most of which still retain a AAA rating).
The most likely scenario is that the UK will continue to underperform, and with no deal, this will be a substantial underperformance. On current forecasts the UK economy will shrink c14% in 2020. By contrast the Estonian economy will grow c4%.
The UK does not have a major manufacturing base and its service sector is being undermined by new technology. School education performance as measured by the OECD Pisa rankings is c 18th. Pretty mediocre and with a worrying long term decline in science results.
Low "numerical literacy" is associated with belief in Covid conspiracy theories. It seems that it is also associated with spouting bollocks about the relative positions of the EU (total GDP $18.2 trillion) and the UK (total GDP $2.8 trillion).
Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right
Not the point though is it. You think other nations should be able to mine our waters without agreement? Would you feel the same if other countries were taking resources from our mines on land? This is about principle not economics.
One group of restaurants (with restaurants in London and Manchester) is taking a “nod and a wink” approach to the new restrictions:-
“With the news that as of Saturday London will be in Tier 2 (which effectively adds no household mixing to our list of restrictions) we are getting in touch to let you know what that means for our 6 London restaurants and for you.
The good news is that we’ve already been dealing with more or less identical restrictions in Manchester since July, and although we understand that they are likely to affect how you use restaurants, the last two months have taught us that the restaurant experience is largely unchanged. Hawksmoor Manchester has remained a vibrant, enjoyable restaurant ever since.
We will be in touch with everyone who has a reservation to check what they want to do, and to let them know about the new rules. We will do so for new bookings at the point of reservation, confirmation and, if necessary, on arrival at Hawksmoor. We will do everything to remind people of their responsibilities (for example, the whole Arsenal or Tottenham first XI walk in then I think we have reasonable grounds for suspicion … in cases where there is a reasonable doubt please don’t be offended if we ask).”
Since restaurants cannot check and have no investigatory powers anyway, how many places will be doing something similar?
Of course restaurants in small places where the staff know their customers can’t do this. Nor does this approach deal with spooked customers who decide not to go out.
That is not surprising. It's surely for customers to make these calls. If I was running a restaurant in Tier 2 or 3 I think I'd try to carry on as normal unless there was a litigation or insurance risk. But of course if the level of business drops away regardless, I'm stuffed unless I have substantial reserves or get money from the government to pay my fixed costs until things normalize.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
It's not a question of weak and strong, but rather brittle and flexible. The EU's position has to take into account 27 countries' views. That makes it inflexible. Like the oak and the bamboo in a strong wind - the oak falls while the bamboo bends.
Sorry Mike the polls are apparently closing where it matters. Trump picking up, Wisconsin, North Carolina, the latter now a tie, Pennsylvania leaning more towards him this week, with over two weeks to go we must sadly prepare for four more years.
On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.
I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.
I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
To be honest that is just ignorant and an insult to all those in fishing communities
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking
You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times
@Dura_Ace has a lot of anger inside him he can't control very well and feels he needs to release, hence the aggressive posts on here, his (self-declared) personal unpleasantness to those he vociferously disagrees with offline, and his dangerous driving.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Holy crap, how in the name of the wee man can you come to that conclusion
UK GDP per capita $42,944 EU GDP per capita $34,883
Is 42,944 more or less than 34,883?
We really are adding beans aren't we?
UK: $42,944 x 66m = $2.834tn EU: $34,883 x 447m = $15.593tn
I'm still reasonably confident that the EU's $15.6tn size is a bigger number than the UK's $2.8tn size.
The aggregate is irrelevant. What matters is the individuals, the average.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
It’s a pretty unusual approach to negotiating to tear up an agreement a few months after signing it.
If Biden wins, will Brexit happen. What with COVID it could be put on hold for six months even longer, with pressure on the UK to hold another referendum!
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
The RN has prescriptive jurisdiction over every British flagged vessel. The master must obey any lawful directions received from the military vessel.
This criticism of Serco smacks of little more than resentment from those not smart enough to buy the shares at the right time. I hope those hardworking members of the government who've had such a rough time over the last six months are filling their boots properly.
If Biden wins, will Brexit happen. What with COVID it could be put on hold for six months even longer, with pressure on the UK to hold another referendum!
But apparently there’s no money available to help those affected by trading restrictions.
This is a political choice by Sunak: money for consultants is good. Money for businesses forced to close or restrict trading because of the government’s measures is bad.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
What part of PER CAPITA do you not understand?
€13tn between 447 million people is €29k per capita. €2.3tn between 67 million people is €34.3k per capita.
Yes I know that you are quoting PER CAPITA. There are more CAPITA'S in the EU than in the UK. Which despite their lower average means the EU is worth more - richer - than the UK. A small number of rich people does not add up to more cash than a much larger number of slightly less people. What you are arguing is that because Macau is bigger PER CAPITA than the USA that it is a bigger economy. A small number of rich people does not add up to more cash than a much larger number of slightly less people.
It would help if the government would be honest and acknowledge that we're sacrificing certain things in order to get others - like ending free movement.
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
The RN has prescriptive jurisdiction over every British flagged vessel. The master must obey any lawful directions received from the military vessel.
Does that work with flags of convenience as well, so the Marshall Islands commands a vast global navy?
If Biden wins, will Brexit happen. What with COVID it could be put on hold for six months even longer, with pressure on the UK to hold another referendum!
This being PoliticalBetting I will answer that in the house style:
"How much do you want to bet that, at the end of 2021, the UK is not a member of the EU?"
I could give you my reasons, but really it's simpler to just force the issue every now and then. I'll give you well over evens if you want. Perhaps more simply:
"Why do you think that a Biden victory would lead to pressure to hold another Brexit referendum?"
On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.
I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.
I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
To be honest that is just ignorant and an insult to all those in fishing communities
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking
You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times
Agree. It's only in a very wealthy society that people can divorce themselves from reality so much. They think that farming is 1% of our economy and therefore is of the same importance as the market in computer games or Little Mix. It's like saying that since air is free and it rains a lot, air and water need no special protection in terms of availability, quality or location.
Fish is in the same category as farming for this purpose.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
What part of PER CAPITA do you not understand?
€13tn between 447 million people is €29k per capita. €2.3tn between 67 million people is €34.3k per capita.
Yes I know that you are quoting PER CAPITA. There are more CAPITA'S in the EU than in the UK. Which despite their lower average means the EU is worth more - richer - than the UK. A small number of rich people does not add up to more cash than a much larger number of slightly less people. What you are arguing is that because Macau is bigger PER CAPITA than the USA that it is a bigger economy. A small number of rich people does not add up to more cash than a much larger number of slightly less people.
Which we both know is bollocks.
Surely if Philip says it enough times with great confidence and the occasional capitalisations it becomes true?
Fishing is objectively irrelevant for GDP. @Dura_Ace is right
The ONS weights different parts of the economy to derive its GDP figures.
Currently the whole of agriculture, forestry and fishing have a weight of 6 out of 1000.
This is compared with manufacturing which has a weight of 101, construction 64 and business services and finance which has a weight of 332. In total the services have a weighting of 790.
So services are significantly more than 100 times more important for GDP than fishing.
On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.
I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.
I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
Fisherfolk are the lineal descendants of the men who beat the Armada and must be honoured.
The fact that most British fishing is actually done by Scots is irrelevant,
OKC , they are relabelling all our produce as British so might as well call our fishermen British as well.
OKC forgot to mention Trafalgar ...
It's bizarre - they are wrecking the UK economy on the say so of a very small minority mostly in Scotland - and it is hardly typical of this London government in other aspects to worry about the Scots - but also wrecking the living of many, many Scotitsh fishermen, processors, and their employees.
The little bird was chirruping "please don't interrupt till I have finished my sentence" throughout. And saying the interview is hard because it's not her mother tongue. Why then does she put herself there?
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
The RN has prescriptive jurisdiction over every British flagged vessel. The master must obey any lawful directions received from the military vessel.
IIRC correctly there were also legal issues about weapons on a vessel commanded by a civilian.
Given the enthusiasm with which the Germans had hounded (and even executed) civilians for the crime of fighting back when attacked in WWI....
Some ships/boats had RNR captains - who were just activated, solving the legal issues.
But apparently there’s no money available to help those affected by trading restrictions.
This is a political choice by Sunak: money for consultants is good. Money for businesses forced to close or restrict trading because of the government’s measures is bad.
On the consultants remember the govt has/had 750k volunteers, many of whom would have had managerial and even consultancy skills amongst them. They have hardly been used at all. Why?
Sorry Mike the polls are apparently closing where it matters. Trump picking up, Wisconsin, North Carolina, the latter now a tie, Pennsylvania leaning more towards him this week, with over two weeks to go we must sadly prepare for four more years.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
From memory last time we went through this,
The UK is richer per head on average than the EU27 per head on average. Because in that case, it's the average per person that matters.
For trade balances, overall the EU exports more to us than the UK does to them. The fact that EU -> UK exports per head or per business are lower than UK -> EU exports per head is neither here nor there; in this case it's the block totals that matter.
The funny thing is this. In a world where you can find experts happy to say almost anything, I'm not aware of any experts in Europe who are saying to Barnier et al "Pull back you fools! Can't you see the obvious strength of the British position!" If they existed, I'm sure we would have heard about them by now. If there are any, I'd love to hear more about them.
Maybe they're stuck in German cars with the Italian prosecco exporters and French fishermen.
Yup. They aren't saying it because it isn't true. Its basic maths that a trading area worth c €13tn is bigger than a country worth c €2tn. The bigger the market value the higher the value to the counter party. The idea that the UK by itself will get better terms than the EU as a block is genuinely laughable. Which as you point out is why no credible commentators are saying so.
What part of PER CAPITA do you not understand?
€13tn between 447 million people is €29k per capita. €2.3tn between 67 million people is €34.3k per capita.
Yes I know that you are quoting PER CAPITA. There are more CAPITA'S in the EU than in the UK. Which despite their lower average means the EU is worth more - richer - than the UK. A small number of rich people does not add up to more cash than a much larger number of slightly less people. What you are arguing is that because Macau is bigger PER CAPITA than the USA that it is a bigger economy. A small number of rich people does not add up to more cash than a much larger number of slightly less people.
Which we both know is bollocks.
The number of people doesn't matter.
Are you suggesting that Nigerians are richer than the Irish? That Indonesians are wealthier than the Swiss? That Bangladeshis are wealthier than Finns?
Simply adding more and more poorer people to a group does not make the group richer - bringing everyone up does. You'd think leftwingers might be able to understand this simple fact but apparently not.
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
The RN has prescriptive jurisdiction over every British flagged vessel. The master must obey any lawful directions received from the military vessel.
IIRC correctly there were also legal issues about weapons on a vessel commanded by a civilian.
Given the enthusiasm with which the Germans had hounded (and even executed) civilians for the crime of fighting back when attacked in WWI....
Some ships/boats had RNR captains - who were just activated, solving the legal issues.
Others - certainly cargo ships - had armed forces personnel sent on board to man the artillery, which also solved the training and watchkeeping load issues.
If Biden wins, will Brexit happen. What with COVID it could be put on hold for six months even longer, with pressure on the UK to hold another referendum!
Brexit has already happened. On the 31st of January 2020.
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
The RN has prescriptive jurisdiction over every British flagged vessel. The master must obey any lawful directions received from the military vessel.
Irrespective of that your comments were ignorant and insulting to fishing communities and the 'missing two fingers' shows you as a nasty piece of work and sits against the hard work of honest decent fishermen who earn their living at sea and in some cases, as has happened in our family, lose their lives at sea
And if you think a lieutenant had any knowledge of the sea compared to my Father in Law you are in cuckoo land
Litigation boutique Joseph Hage Aaronson is seeking a dogsbody to walk a partner's dog.
The entry-level position of "Personal Assistant and Dog Walker" at the London firm will provide the lucky candidate with private healthcare, the ear of senior management, and a chance to get out and about with a poop scoop.
The "down to earth self-starter who relishes variety" will enjoy a "predominantly non-desk-based role", and "run errands around London", according to the vacancy, which lists a salary of £30,000.
Duties include "General personal support", which will include "some caring of the principal’s small dog".
The role is full-time, 9am to 6pm, Monday to Friday. Although, because this is City law, "the successful candidate must be willing to be flexible on occasion".
Naturally, applicants "Must have demonstrable experience looking after and walking dogs" and be "pet friendly".
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Holy crap, how in the name of the wee man can you come to that conclusion
UK GDP per capita $42,944 EU GDP per capita $34,883
Is 42,944 more or less than 34,883?
We really are adding beans aren't we?
UK: $42,944 x 66m = $2.834tn EU: $34,883 x 447m = $15.593tn
I'm still reasonably confident that the EU's $15.6tn size is a bigger number than the UK's $2.8tn size.
The aggregate is irrelevant. What matters is the individuals, the average.
Nope, when you're trying to calculate leverage in negotiations or the world, it's the aggregate that counts.
On the fishing I think EU boats should be allowed but there should not be quota system. Instead the French and other fishing companies should be allowed to compete for a licence to fish in British waters, and that all catches be required to land their catch in British ports. That gives the UK control and supervision.
I am genuinely baffled as to why fishing is so fucking important in all this. It's a tiny fraction of the economy largely practiced by illiterates with missing fingers who probably don't vote anyway.
I've been on a boarding party that went aboard a trawler in the North Sea and it seemed liked the most uncomfortable and degrading way possible to make a living apart from being Alok Sharma.
To be honest that is just ignorant and an insult to all those in fishing communities
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking
You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times
Agree. It's only in a very wealthy society that people can divorce themselves from reality so much. They think that farming is 1% of our economy and therefore is of the same importance as the market in computer games or Little Mix. It's like saying that since air is free and it rains a lot, air and water need no special protection in terms of availability, quality or location.
Fish is in the same category as farming for this purpose.
There is sense in what you are saying, especially for Scotland wherte it is pro rata a much more important resource, but the problem is Brexit will wreck much of the Scottish fishing industry, when the problems of the inshort fishermen are taken into account, and also processors and their staffs.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Holy crap, how in the name of the wee man can you come to that conclusion
UK GDP per capita $42,944 EU GDP per capita $34,883
Is 42,944 more or less than 34,883?
We really are adding beans aren't we?
UK: $42,944 x 66m = $2.834tn EU: $34,883 x 447m = $15.593tn
I'm still reasonably confident that the EU's $15.6tn size is a bigger number than the UK's $2.8tn size.
The aggregate is irrelevant. What matters is the individuals, the average.
Nope, when you're trying to calculate leverage in negotiations or the world, it's the aggregate that counts.
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
The RN has prescriptive jurisdiction over every British flagged vessel. The master must obey any lawful directions received from the military vessel.
Does that work with flags of convenience as well, so the Marshall Islands commands a vast global navy?
Ultimately a military vessel can board or control any civvie vessel if it really wants to because we've got the guns. There's a great YouTube video of the destroyer HMAS Hobart giving a group of fishermen an education in the law of the sea.
If the RN wanted to board a Marshall Islands flagged vessel in British territorial waters/EEZ they certainly would.
Lord Frost gave a tart response to the EU’s conclusions, saying he had been “surprised” by the suggestion that all future moves needed to come from the UK. “It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”
If you're clearly the weak partner, you do the conceding, who knew?
We're not clearly the weaker partner though.
Do you honestly think we're the stronger partner compared to the EU
Yes of course I do. We are richer, have a trade deficit and the issues of dispute we get in full if we walk away.
We just need the confidence to believe in ourselves.
The UK 1 is richer than the EU 27?
Yes.
Well obviously. That Germany alone is richer than the UK proves that Germany plus the other 26 are poorer than we are.
Germany may be richer than the UK but we're not negotiating with Germany we are negotiating with the EU. The UK is richer than the EU is.
Holy crap, how in the name of the wee man can you come to that conclusion
UK GDP per capita $42,944 EU GDP per capita $34,883
Is 42,944 more or less than 34,883?
We really are adding beans aren't we?
UK: $42,944 x 66m = $2.834tn EU: $34,883 x 447m = $15.593tn
I'm still reasonably confident that the EU's $15.6tn size is a bigger number than the UK's $2.8tn size.
The aggregate is irrelevant. What matters is the individuals, the average.
Nope, when you're trying to calculate leverage in negotiations or the world, it's the aggregate that counts.
HMG lied again, they said fish was sorted because it was only a French issue. Turns out that was nonsense
When did they say that? France has a veto on any trade agreement. Which is why I don`t think there will be one any time soon. Unless, a trade agreement is reached excluding fishing rights (discussions to continue, maybe to a back stop date).
Comments
No-one would care about the brilliance of the show and its superb comedy.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1316813755678887942
The EU has a net trade surplus with the UK whether block or per capita.
The UK has a net trade deficit with the EU whether block or per capita.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54568657
Focusing on the trade balance is like focusing on the budget deficit - it completely misunderstands what economic welfare is all about. The point of trade agreements is not to exploit or improve the balance of trade, but to maximise the total amount of trade. It is positive sum, not zero sum, or at any rate it should be.
It will be the dog that doesn't bark. The bigger risk to Biden (from a stability/legitimacy point of view) is the time it takes to count the votes and declare a result.
California is a Democratic fiefdom and they managed to footshoot all by themselves last time by taking weeks and weeks to declare.
When it dictates, it is "dictatorial", but "strong"
Who was the chap who said people will always go for the "Strong horse"?
My long time prediction that Trump would be 5 on eve of poll is looking shaky.
An awful lot of guff is spoken about punching above our weight etc but so often what matters - other than brute force - is what do you have to offer. It's no wonder the influence the US has had since it can offer people money/resources/military equipment etc.
EU GDP per capita $34,883
Is 42,944 more or less than 34,883?
https://twitter.com/Tabby_Kinder/status/1317019138028670976?s=20
“With the news that as of Saturday London will be in Tier 2 (which effectively adds no household mixing to our list of restrictions) we are getting in touch to let you know what that means for our 6 London restaurants and for you.
The good news is that we’ve already been dealing with more or less identical restrictions in Manchester since July, and although we understand that they are likely to affect how you use restaurants, the last two months have taught us that the restaurant experience is largely unchanged. Hawksmoor Manchester has remained a vibrant, enjoyable restaurant ever since.
We will be in touch with everyone who has a reservation to check what they want to do, and to let them know about the new rules. We will do so for new bookings at the point of reservation, confirmation and, if necessary, on arrival at Hawksmoor. We will do everything to remind people of their responsibilities (for example, the whole Arsenal or Tottenham first XI walk in then I think we have reasonable grounds for suspicion … in cases where there is a reasonable doubt please don’t be offended if we ask).”
Since restaurants cannot check and have no investigatory powers anyway, how many places will be doing something similar?
Of course restaurants in small places where the staff know their customers can’t do this. Nor does this approach deal with spooked customers who decide not to go out.
It reminds me of the stupidity of the Royal Navy putting a gun on the front of my Father in Laws fishing boat in the last war, along with a wet behind the ears lieutenant tying to tell him what to do, when he was the skipper of one of Scotland's most successful fishing boats
And if you knew the numbers of our family drowned at sea while fishing your inane comment about 'missing two fingers' is breathtaking
You think you are clever but you demonstrate extraordinary ignorance at times
When I reminded her that she had carefully and with considerable effort thwarted plans by a UK company to set up a test site for liquid fueled rocket engines - well apparently that wasn't the point.
Apparently we need awesome innovation and technology. Just nothing built or done anywhere near... me.
I have been told by someone involved in European space efforts that the French are arguing for a response to Starlink - the response being not licensing* its usage in the EU....
*Terminals and ground stations require national approval.
But maybe you're right.
Europe is not a mighty oak, it is sclerotic and falling behind.
Other developed nations like Canada, Australia, America are growing more and leaving Europe in its wake.
But I suppose it's good if those who care about democracy are more willing to wait 11 hours to vote than those who don't.
€13tn between 447 million people is €29k per capita.
€2.3tn between 67 million people is €34.3k per capita.
Look at the districts where voting stations are removed, the demographics there, and the political party the removers belong to.
It doesn't take very much looking to see a pattern emerge.
I wish they were all imaginary but the last six months has provided all the evidence one would ever need about how this is the first thing they look for in any production.
Per capita is the only metric that matters.
https://twitter.com/SimonNeville/status/1317019609053220864?s=20
UK: $42,944 x 66m = $2.834tn
EU: $34,883 x 447m = $15.593tn
I'm still reasonably confident that the EU's $15.6tn size is a bigger number than the UK's $2.8tn size.
Anyway, work beckons.
It's really not that complicated, but to illustrate the argument we can consider the case of the UK and Ireland. We run a trade surplus of around £14bn with Ireland - in other words, our exports to Ireland are much larger than their exports to us. Ireland us also richer than us. Does that mean that if we were negotiating an FTA with Ireland alone that they would hold all the cards? No of course not, because we are a far bigger economy than they are and our exports to them are a far smaller share of our overall economy than theirs are. We would hold all the cards. And that of course is why Ireland will never leave the EU.
He needs help.
It actually liberates me a bit. I'm happy waiting with some cash for election day, I can probably get the same odds or close enough as I can now but with no time left for anything to change. I'm tempted to keep some back for the night itself if the market misinterprets early results. I'll decide nearer the time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
We see that 11 EU members have higher PPP GDP per capita than the UK does, and several are much higher. Of those who have lower numbers, these are not that much lower. Several, such as the Baltics, are also growing a lot faster than the UK, and will overtake the UK in the foreseeable future.
Partly as a result, the bond markets rate Gilts at about the same level as Estonian sovereign paper, and a lot less than not just Germany, but Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Finland etc. (most of which still retain a AAA rating).
The most likely scenario is that the UK will continue to underperform, and with no deal, this will be a substantial underperformance. On current forecasts the UK economy will shrink c14% in 2020. By contrast the Estonian economy will grow c4%.
The UK does not have a major manufacturing base and its service sector is being undermined by new technology. School education performance as measured by the OECD Pisa rankings is c 18th. Pretty mediocre and with a worrying long term decline in science results.
Low "numerical literacy" is associated with belief in Covid conspiracy theories. It seems that it is also associated with spouting bollocks about the relative positions of the EU (total GDP $18.2 trillion) and the UK (total GDP $2.8 trillion).
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1317000943578263552?s=20
With gyms and leisure centres negotiated to stay open.
So Tier 2.837245 then.
Sunak needs to do something or the British pub will no longer exist in parts of UK.
This is a political choice by Sunak: money for consultants is good. Money for businesses forced to close or restrict trading because of the government’s measures is bad.
Which we both know is bollocks.
"How much do you want to bet that, at the end of 2021, the UK is not a member of the EU?"
I could give you my reasons, but really it's simpler to just force the issue every now and then. I'll give you well over evens if you want. Perhaps more simply:
"Why do you think that a Biden victory would lead to pressure to hold another Brexit referendum?"
Fish is in the same category as farming for this purpose.
But they too are being abandoned by this government. Unless you’re a friend of Boris or Dom or Rishi, you don’t count in Johnson’s New Model Britain.
Currently the whole of agriculture, forestry and fishing have a weight of 6 out of 1000.
This is compared with manufacturing which has a weight of 101, construction 64 and business services and finance which has a weight of 332. In total the services have a weighting of 790.
So services are significantly more than 100 times more important for GDP than fishing.
It's bizarre - they are wrecking the UK economy on the say so of a very small minority mostly in Scotland - and it is hardly typical of this London government in other aspects to worry about the Scots - but also wrecking the living of many, many Scotitsh fishermen, processors, and their employees.
Given the enthusiasm with which the Germans had hounded (and even executed) civilians for the crime of fighting back when attacked in WWI....
Some ships/boats had RNR captains - who were just activated, solving the legal issues.
Are you suggesting that Nigerians are richer than the Irish? That Indonesians are wealthier than the Swiss? That Bangladeshis are wealthier than Finns?
Simply adding more and more poorer people to a group does not make the group richer - bringing everyone up does. You'd think leftwingers might be able to understand this simple fact but apparently not.
And if you think a lieutenant had any knowledge of the sea compared to my Father in Law you are in cuckoo land
Litigation boutique Joseph Hage Aaronson is seeking a dogsbody to walk a partner's dog.
The entry-level position of "Personal Assistant and Dog Walker" at the London firm will provide the lucky candidate with private healthcare, the ear of senior management, and a chance to get out and about with a poop scoop.
The "down to earth self-starter who relishes variety" will enjoy a "predominantly non-desk-based role", and "run errands around London", according to the vacancy, which lists a salary of £30,000.
Duties include "General personal support", which will include "some caring of the principal’s small dog".
The role is full-time, 9am to 6pm, Monday to Friday. Although, because this is City law, "the successful candidate must be willing to be flexible on occasion".
Naturally, applicants "Must have demonstrable experience looking after and walking dogs" and be "pet friendly".
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-firm-offers-dream-job-walking-partners-dog
Goodwill £671 million, company equity £542 million. Just the equivalent of plate spinning isn't it.
If the RN wanted to board a Marshall Islands flagged vessel in British territorial waters/EEZ they certainly would.