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If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid – politicalbetting.com

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  • Labour has some political opportunity to make this into a "us and them" again

    More sensible heads will see this as a national crisis where political point scoring could rebound in a big way

    This is a time for unity and listening to the news it looks like Boris has been working all weekend with the Liverpool leader and other Labour leaders in the North to arrive at an agreement most can live with

    Time for grown up debate
  • LadyG said:

    MikeL said:

    LadyG said:

    This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Of course it won't because:

    1) The lockdown measures have overwhelming public support

    2) Almost nobody sees the lockdown measures as a party political issue (the only people who even see it as any kind of political issue are a few libertarian fanatics)

    It won't influence votes whatsoever at a GE (other than those libertarian fanatics who are a tiny % of the population).
    I don't think there will be "overwhelming support" by the time we reach early January, and all the pubs have been shut since mid October
    Why? The pubs were shut for nearly four months previously and it still maintained overwhelming support at the time.

    Don't rely upon people changing their mind.
    The overwhelming support is from those people not affected.

    Would love to see that opinion poll carried out in affected northern areas and excluding the unaffected home counties.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    Really? Even despite the clear link in many cases between dramatically increasing cases and universities?
  • dixiedean said:
    Can't be Geordies, if they were Geordies she wouldn't have been able to understand them.
  • I'm a bit puzzled on how this EVEL business is applied. It was reported that wee Doogie Ross had voted against free school meals for c.1m low income English kids in 2018 despite him being a Scotch mp for a Scotch constituency (and hilariously subsequently promising that he'd support them as SCon FM). Shome mishtake shirly?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Labour has some political opportunity to make this into a "us and them" again

    More sensible heads will see this as a national crisis where political point scoring could rebound in a big way

    This is a time for unity and listening to the news it looks like Boris has been working all weekend with the Liverpool leader and other Labour leaders in the North to arrive at an agreement most can live with

    Time for grown up debate
    I suspect he's just chucking money at them.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    I suspect he's just chucking money at them.

    I will be welcoming of more lockdowns but I don't think it is going to stem the amount of cases. Following the rules has completely gone out of the window and Labour is right to highlight that, especially if the end result is some areas being locked down but others not. It's the "opposition" many have been calling out for.

    The Government doesn't deserve support anymore, they've mucked up time and time again.

    I suspect as you say, he's bribed them
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Tomorrow is likely to be a big day in the covid story

    Boris puts forward a traffic light scheme for regulation of covid outbreaks to the HOC

    The HOC will vent fury from some quarters and including conservative and labour mps

    Labour will either vote for or abstain so the laws will come in from Wednesday

    Liverpool go to tier 3 lockdown with mutual agreement with the Liverpool leaders and HMG

    Manchester and other areas will have tier 2 lockdown but again the leaders will agree because compensation packages modelled on Liverpool will apply per tier lockdown

    I may be wrong but I would be surprised if this is not near the position at the end of tomorrow

    Why would Manchester be spared, I thought they had it as bad as Scouseland?
  • alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    Really? Even despite the clear link in many cases between dramatically increasing cases and universities?
    Yes.

    Here's Burnham in May.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/05/greater-manchester-mayor-lockdown-lifted-too-soon-regions

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-mayor-andy-burnham-18335264
  • dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    And people would have gone nuts complaining at some areas unlocking before others, and politicians would be under pressure not to do it.
  • Germany seems to be doing okay?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    dixiedean said:
    Can't be Geordies, if they were Geordies she wouldn't have been able to understand them.
    If they were Corbynistas they were probably all very posh southerners.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    Really? Even despite the clear link in many cases between dramatically increasing cases and universities?
    Yes.

    Here's Burnham in May.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/05/greater-manchester-mayor-lockdown-lifted-too-soon-regions

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-mayor-andy-burnham-18335264
    I was questioning your second sentence.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Tomorrow is likely to be a big day in the covid story

    Boris puts forward a traffic light scheme for regulation of covid outbreaks to the HOC

    The HOC will vent fury from some quarters and including conservative and labour mps

    Labour will either vote for or abstain so the laws will come in from Wednesday

    Liverpool go to tier 3 lockdown with mutual agreement with the Liverpool leaders and HMG

    Manchester and other areas will have tier 2 lockdown but again the leaders will agree because compensation packages modelled on Liverpool will apply per tier lockdown

    I may be wrong but I would be surprised if this is not near the position at the end of tomorrow

    Thanks must go to Dido for the traffic light system. I understand it is already flashing purple.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    It's not right. In the spring we were flying blind, a local or regional lockdown back then would have been impossible, as we simply didn't have the means to determine where a lockdown should apply. We went from a relatively small number of cases to somewhere in the region of 100,000 infections per day in a matter of weeks. At that point we had two choices, let it rip, or shutdown everything.

    We aren't in that situation now, we can take local and regional measures, and although the north is getting hit hard now it's quite likely that other regions will be next in the firing line for the next wave. Hell it's quite possible that London will blow up again over the next few weeks anyway and be in the same boat.
  • dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
  • Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.

    Germany seems to be doing okay?
  • kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    And people would have gone nuts complaining at some areas unlocking before others, and politicians would be under pressure not to do it.
    I've been saying from the very start of March there are no good options, just bad ones.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    Look at that thread by Costello. Quite a few European countries aren't doing anywhere near as bad: Norway, Germany, Finland, Sweden (arguably).

    The key seems to be a fit-for-purpose test, track and trace system, with follow up daily calls by tracers, and enforced rules on isolation.

    All this can be done, countries have done it. Britain has not. It is a basic government failure. Yes, France, Spain, Holland etc are in the same toilet, but we didn't have to be.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,170
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    And people would have gone nuts complaining at some areas unlocking before others, and politicians would be under pressure not to do it.
    A few years ago I remember seeing Chris Rock on the Jonathan Ross show. He was complaining - I think I've got this the right way around - that social services in America were more likely to take a black kid into care. My first thought was, social services care more about black kids (they almost certainly don't, but you get the point).

    As you correctly point out, the same logic applies to COVID-19.
  • This idea every country in Europe is doing as badly as us is just Tory propaganda at this point
  • alex_ said:

    I suspect he's just chucking money at them.

    I will be welcoming of more lockdowns but I don't think it is going to stem the amount of cases. Following the rules has completely gone out of the window and Labour is right to highlight that, especially if the end result is some areas being locked down but others not. It's the "opposition" many have been calling out for.

    The Government doesn't deserve support anymore, they've mucked up time and time again.

    I suspect as you say, he's bribed them
    You use the word bribe quite freely without any knowledge of the detail
  • LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    Look at that thread by Costello. Quite a few European countries aren't doing anywhere near as bad: Norway, Germany, Finland, Sweden (arguably).

    The key seems to be a fit-for-purpose test, track and trace system, with follow up daily calls by tracers, and enforced rules on isolation.

    All this can be done, countries have done it. Britain has not. It is a basic government failure. Yes, France, Spain, Holland etc are in the same toilet, but we didn't have to be.

    Indeed, some of us hold higher standards for this country than being not as bad as France.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
    Everyone going on holidays was a giant mistake.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.

    Germany seems to be doing okay?
    Not really OK. At the moment it's just "not as bad as the UK". I sense a lockdown excepting schools, coming up soon.
  • RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
    Everyone going on holidays was a giant mistake.
    Should have banned travel abroad quite honestly
  • LadyG said:

    Tomorrow is likely to be a big day in the covid story

    Boris puts forward a traffic light scheme for regulation of covid outbreaks to the HOC

    The HOC will vent fury from some quarters and including conservative and labour mps

    Labour will either vote for or abstain so the laws will come in from Wednesday

    Liverpool go to tier 3 lockdown with mutual agreement with the Liverpool leaders and HMG

    Manchester and other areas will have tier 2 lockdown but again the leaders will agree because compensation packages modelled on Liverpool will apply per tier lockdown

    I may be wrong but I would be surprised if this is not near the position at the end of tomorrow

    Why would Manchester be spared, I thought they had it as bad as Scouseland?
    Not sure

    It seems strange that only Liverpool has been confirmed
  • eristdoof said:

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.

    Germany seems to be doing okay?
    Not really OK. At the moment it's just "not as bad as the UK". I sense a lockdown excepting schools, coming up soon.
    Much better than us though, so I consider that "OK" in comparison
  • RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
    Everyone going on holidays was a giant mistake.
    If only people had warned at the time, oh wait we did.
  • Germany seems to be doing okay?

    Germany's cases are rising
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
    Everyone going on holidays was a giant mistake.
    Should have banned travel abroad quite honestly
    You'd have thought common sense would have prevailed. But no, and not helped by the media's obsession with this particular topic.
  • The only thing we have wisely not done is reopen nightclubs.

    Oddly there people losing their jobs has been ignored, so why do restaurants and so on get all the attention?

    Just close all of them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,584
    edited October 2020
    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some other European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
    Everyone going on holidays was a giant mistake.
    Should have banned travel abroad quite honestly
    You'd have thought common sense would have prevailed. But no, and not helped by the media's obsession with this particular topic.
    All egged on by BoJo and his "all back to normal" nonsense
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
    Everyone going on holidays was a giant mistake.
    Should have banned travel abroad quite honestly
    You'd have thought common sense would have prevailed. But no, and not helped by the media's obsession with this particular topic.
    All egged on by BoJo and his "all back to normal" nonsense
    For daily life stuff, I don't agree. But the government should have done more to incentivise travel within the UK.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    One day you'll surprise me and not defend the government using spurious analogies.

    Most countries made different mistakes, Spain opening up to tourists and nightclubs.
    Everyone going on holidays was a giant mistake.
    Should have banned travel abroad quite honestly
    You'd have thought common sense would have prevailed. But no, and not helped by the media's obsession with this particular topic.
    All egged on by BoJo and his "all back to normal" nonsense
    For daily life stuff, I don't agree. But the government should have done more to incentivise travel within the UK.
    BoJo was insisting it would all be over by summer and that we should all get back to the pub, then back to work.

    His rhetoric is absolutely to blame, in part at best.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,607
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    But why are Spanish numbers coming down? Maybe there's a barrier that we and France are just yet to hit?
    Waves are waves, they pass through. The question is how high? Can we surf the wave or is it wipeout?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
  • This idea every country in Europe is doing as badly as us is just Tory propaganda at this point

    Nonsense

    Most European countries are struggling and Ireland recorded their highest figures today

    Czech Republic goes from model covid 19 response to brink of second lockdown as reported by the Guardian today
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,970

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some other European countries

    But we also have BoZo
  • RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    Johnson has an 80 seat majority, he had the power to do it.
  • murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
  • Tories think BoJo has done a great job, or everyone else is just as bad.

    BoJo is never to blame, it's never his fault.

    We just know if Corbyn was PM, he would be being slaughtered by the same people, here and elsewhere. Political point scoring and game playing is all it is.
  • Just got back in from a long walk. Trump's price also seems to have gone for a walk. Anything happened?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020
    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The thing is that it was an easy action for a xenophobe like Trump to take. But by then the virus had already escaped Wuhan.

    The rest of the hard decisions, like encouraging masks, testing and tracing, social distancing etc . . . he's struggled with that.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    Look at that thread by Costello. Quite a few European countries aren't doing anywhere near as bad: Norway, Germany, Finland, Sweden (arguably).

    The key seems to be a fit-for-purpose test, track and trace system, with follow up daily calls by tracers, and enforced rules on isolation.

    All this can be done, countries have done it. Britain has not. It is a basic government failure. Yes, France, Spain, Holland etc are in the same toilet, but we didn't have to be.

    The Government focussed on numbers - "look how great we are doing all this testing, far more than everyone else" and hardly at all on what they were doing the testing for. Which is what should have been important.

    I find it vaguely astonishing that anybody should extol the virtues of a testing system that tests hundreds of thousands of people every day, but when the vast, vast majority of those tested are negative. That's just an enormously inefficient system.

    I also don't understand why anyone thought that test and trace would be most effective being directed at a national level by remote (ie. phone contact) when the vast majority of contacts would be local. And local knowledge on tracing would always be more effective. People argued that local authorities didn't have the resources or capacity to do it. Well FFS we've spent enough money on this sh*tshow - i'm sure local authority capacity could have been rebuilt. They've had enough people twiddling their thumbs as whole areas of local government activity has been shut down.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,170
    Is that post supposed to be funny? I find it odd that gyms have been open at all.
  • nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Wait, you're telling me the UK did just cock up, I am shocked the Tories would pretend it's the same everywhere.

    They've been lying since 2008, why stop now
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093
    edited October 2020

    Just got back in from a long walk. Trump's price also seems to have gone for a walk. Anything happened?

    3.4. Quite a move from 2.95 this morning. The spreads have not changed though.

    No big news as far as I know. Just a couple of bog standard good Biden polls today.

    Perhaps the dawning realization of the herd that he is unelectable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    What opprobrium? It was the single correct move he made.

    The UK government's open borders throughout this epidemic had been utterly fucking insane. I say this as someone who works in the travel industry and who's company is totally fucked
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    This idea every country in Europe is doing as badly as us is just Tory propaganda at this point

    Nonsense

    Most European countries are struggling and Ireland recorded their highest figures today

    Czech Republic goes from model covid 19 response to brink of second lockdown as reported by the Guardian today
    Yes, countries are struggling but why are we faring worse than others? Take the f*cking Tory blinkers off my friend!

    We have a wretched Government led by a lying racist fornicating piece of shit! There is a saying that the people deserve the Government they get. We must have committed some kind of atrocity in a former life to get this lot led by that c*nt!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    .
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Sounds like cherry picking to me. If you only count the inhabited areas of England I am sure you get a far higher figure for the population density.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    Well, first of all I would never have expected it of you. But second, what were you doing in Bishop Auckland? You’re supposed to be locked down in South Wales and all the serious lockdown breakers go to Barnard Castle.
    A fair cop. If I want to abuse an unpleasant Conservative MP, I can do that from the relative safety of my own County Borough.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,170
    RobD said:

    .

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Sounds like cherry picking to me. If you only count the inhabited areas of England I am sure you get a far higher figure for the population density.
    It's such an odd metric. Do you include inland water? It makes a big difference to Rutland!

    In reality, Scotland's density is a lot higher than the simple figure.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    Here in Tallinn the latest infection rate is 50. The track and trace here works and every new case now seems to be traced and isolated. So after a flurry last week, and a tightening of the restrictions, the number of overnight positives was down to only 19. Hopefully the second wave is going to be over faster than the first. However the UK failure over track and trace which has taken your infection rate over 200 may well lead to worse to come, even with the extremely draconian lock downs you seem to be having there. THAT really is incompetence. No one in Estonia can beleive that you spent 12 billion quid and still dont have an effective system. The Hoia track and trace system here has been in place for weeks and cost thousands, not millions. How come the UK government admistration always gets tech so badly wrong?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    murali_s said:

    This idea every country in Europe is doing as badly as us is just Tory propaganda at this point

    Nonsense

    Most European countries are struggling and Ireland recorded their highest figures today

    Czech Republic goes from model covid 19 response to brink of second lockdown as reported by the Guardian today
    Yes, countries are struggling but why are we faring worse than others? Take the f*cking Tory blinkers off my friend!

    We have a wretched Government led by a lying racist fornicating piece of shit! There is a saying that the people deserve the Government they get. We must have committed some kind of atrocity in a former life to get this lot led by that c*nt!
    Is it really necessary to talk like that?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,170

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Wait, you're telling me the UK did just cock up, I am shocked the Tories would pretend it's the same everywhere.

    They've been lying since 2008, why stop now
    One country that really ought to be doing better is France.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some other European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Precisely. We allowed flights from China and Italy in March to land with no checks whatsoever on passengers.
  • murali_s said:

    This idea every country in Europe is doing as badly as us is just Tory propaganda at this point

    Nonsense

    Most European countries are struggling and Ireland recorded their highest figures today

    Czech Republic goes from model covid 19 response to brink of second lockdown as reported by the Guardian today
    Yes, countries are struggling but why are we faring worse than others? Take the f*cking Tory blinkers off my friend!

    We have a wretched Government led by a lying racist fornicating piece of shit! There is a saying that the people deserve the Government they get. We must have committed some kind of atrocity in a former life to get this lot led by that c*nt!
    Who says we are faring worse than others?

    We struggled months ago, but comparing like for like with other European nations with our level of population density, level of obesity and level of elderly population, we seem to be coping now as well as any other nation.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Wait, you're telling me the UK did just cock up, I am shocked the Tories would pretend it's the same everywhere.

    They've been lying since 2008, why stop now
    There is no off the shelf solution to this, each country has different cultural norms and different political systems. Most of Spain has now been under the same regulations for three months, in comparison to the UK quite relaxed. We are seeing local more drastic measures in urban hot spots but very few have closed shops and bars completely. The most stringent I’ve seen have been rule of six (not limited to family) and close by 11:00. There is no magic solution but clear and constant messaging helps.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Just got back in from a long walk. Trump's price also seems to have gone for a walk. Anything happened?

    Zogby poll with a 3 point Biden lead released today?

    (field work in August)
  • NEW THREAD

  • nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Wait, you're telling me the UK did just cock up, I am shocked the Tories would pretend it's the same everywhere.

    They've been lying since 2008, why stop now
    You seem to like the word lying
  • Alistair said:

    Just got back in from a long walk. Trump's price also seems to have gone for a walk. Anything happened?

    Zogby poll with a 3 point Biden lead released today?

    (field work in August)
    Lol! Zogby! They are to polling what Accrington Stanley is to Premier League Soccer.

    Thank you.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    tlg86 said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    Wait, countries are different?
    Spain actually has the highest population density based on habitable land.
    Wait, you're telling me the UK did just cock up, I am shocked the Tories would pretend it's the same everywhere.

    They've been lying since 2008, why stop now
    One country that really ought to be doing better is France.
    The Netherlands always gives the impression of a sane, orderly place, a flatter, slightly friendlier version of Germany.

    You'd think they would manage this well, in a boringly sensible Dutch fashion. Yet the Netherlands is having a very bad pandemic, almost as bad as Belgium next door.

    Also having a bad second wave: Iceland

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-iceland/iceland-closes-bars-gyms-again-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN26Q1Q6?il=0
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    We have one of the toughest Covid challenges and one of the least focused and competent Covid responses. A bad combination.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,747

    This idea every country in Europe is doing as badly as us is just Tory propaganda at this point

    Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands are all doing as badly or worse in terms of numbers bit that's not a good thing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,086
    LadyG said:

    dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    So why is most of Europe experiencing the same if not worse problems
    Look at that thread by Costello. Quite a few European countries aren't doing anywhere near as bad: Norway, Germany, Finland, Sweden (arguably).

    The key seems to be a fit-for-purpose test, track and trace system, with follow up daily calls by tracers, and enforced rules on isolation.

    All this can be done, countries have done it. Britain has not. It is a basic government failure. Yes, France, Spain, Holland etc are in the same toilet, but we didn't have to be.

    Especially as we had an advantage over those other countries as we're an island, and could have done a better job not reimporting cases.

    In that context, our performance has been woeful.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,086

    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    Remember as an island nation we had some natural advantage to controlling Covid-19 than some of our European countries, in some ways we've done much much worse than other countries.

    Remember the opprobrium Trump got when he tried to ban all flights from China at the start of this. Not looking particularly dumb now.
    The point TSE is making why are *we* one of the worst if not the worst in Europe? Any ideas Rob? I have a few...
    Because we have an extremely high population density, one of the highest in Europe, with a very high elderly population and a very high amount of obesity.
    We're not particularly old by European standards. Germany's median age is 47.1 years, Italy 45.5, most of the EU is in the 44-45 region, and we're 40.5. I think only Norway is younger than us in Europe.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,086
    NEW THREAD!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Chuck Todd talks about the potential for the closeness of the Federal Presidential and Congressional elections to impact the outcome of 86 state house elections in 44 states - i.e. the usual top of the ticket races impacting the down ticket races.

    I have wondered all year about the potential for that relationship to be the other way around - the potential for the (Democratic Party) energy going into the state house elections for control over redistricting to impact the Federal election outcomes across the board.

    If more energy is going into getting people out to vote for these state house elections, particularly on the Democratic side, that presumably will translate up ticket too.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/republicans-risk-losing-texas-florida-arizona-state-houses-n1242842
This discussion has been closed.