"How closely linked are lockdown and Brexit? | The Spectator Patrick West
Once upon a time, a long time ago, this country was consumed by the matter of Brexit. Everywhere you turned, in every medium, even among friends and colleagues, you couldn't get away from the subject: everyone was talking about Brexit. We were obsessed by it. From 2016 to 2019 there was no escape.
All of this changed this year. With the pandemic, the rancorous matter of Brexit vanished, or at least stopped becoming the emotive, divisive matter of primary concern. It has been relegated to a pedestrian news story about trading rights. In the year of the coronavirus and all its horrors, paranoia and despair, Brexit has become a sideshow. Right?
Wrong. While the clamorous conflict between Leavers and Remainers has ostensibly ceased, in our collective subconscious the same cleavage in our society remains – only the subject matter has changed. As you may have concluded from newspapers and your social media feed, Remainer and Leave camps have merely metamorphosed into pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown tribes."
Strangely enough just spent an hour chatting to a bloke I haven't seen since before lockdown. He was an extreme Remainer and told everyone so. Turns out he's now a ferocious anti-lockdowner. And is equally forthcoming in his views.
There is a definite type of person that is incapable of holding moderate views on anything, but never notices or seems to care how their extreme view on one thing is completely inconsistent with a similar view on another.
(And they often only hold those views because they love to argue - not saying that's true of your friend, of course).
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I would assume/hope that Sunak will walk from Cabinet before supporting a six month lockdown. He can rally the resistance from the back benches.
There's a morbid fascination in working out how bad it would have to get: for the UK to default. The ability to print our own money makes a default very unlikely - but not, I think, impossible
A 25% drop in GDP and a debt-to-GDP of 200%? I am not an economist. Maybe some expert out there can give us the odds
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I would assume/hope that Sunak will walk from Cabinet before supporting a six month lockdown. He can rally the resistance from the back benches.
There's a morbid fascination in working out how bad it would have to get: for the UK to default. The ability to print our own money makes a default very unlikely - but not, I think, impossible
A 25% drop in GDP and a debt-to-GDP of 200%? I am not an economist. Maybe some expert out there can give us the odds
A more likely scenario in that case is a Weimar or Confedaracy style orgy of printing which debases the money supply so far our debts are effectively worthless anyway.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
The culture of face is also still extremely strong.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
Yes. People will comply with rules they don't like if a) there are stiff punishments AND b) they think they're likely to be caught. Our government has been excellent at announcing stiff punishments, but our police have not seriously enforced them as far as I can tell so it's been a bit of a farce. No wonder a poll said only 18% of people have followed the rules.
"How closely linked are lockdown and Brexit? | The Spectator Patrick West
Once upon a time, a long time ago, this country was consumed by the matter of Brexit. Everywhere you turned, in every medium, even among friends and colleagues, you couldn't get away from the subject: everyone was talking about Brexit. We were obsessed by it. From 2016 to 2019 there was no escape.
All of this changed this year. With the pandemic, the rancorous matter of Brexit vanished, or at least stopped becoming the emotive, divisive matter of primary concern. It has been relegated to a pedestrian news story about trading rights. In the year of the coronavirus and all its horrors, paranoia and despair, Brexit has become a sideshow. Right?
Wrong. While the clamorous conflict between Leavers and Remainers has ostensibly ceased, in our collective subconscious the same cleavage in our society remains – only the subject matter has changed. As you may have concluded from newspapers and your social media feed, Remainer and Leave camps have merely metamorphosed into pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown tribes."
Strangely enough just spent an hour chatting to a bloke I haven't seen since before lockdown. He was an extreme Remainer and told everyone so. Turns out he's now a ferocious anti-lockdowner. And is equally forthcoming in his views.
There is a definite type of person that is incapable of holding moderate views on anything, but never notices or seems to care how their extreme view on one thing is completely inconsistent with a similar view on another.
(And they often only hold those views because they love to argue - not saying that's true of your friend, of course).
No. I think you are on to something. He's more of an acquaintance round the village, but is always entertaining company as he is well informed and very opinionated. He seems utterly oblivious to the idea anyone may not agree with his less than consistent philosophy.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
The culture of face is also still extremely strong.
Plus the fact that behind everything is the shadow of the war-sometime-in-the-next-five-minutes with the North.
The numbers on what would happen in the first hour of such a war are pretty incredible.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
The culture of face is also still extremely strong.
Whereas here we can't decide if we want a culture of hands or a culture of space.
Incoming twattish journos with cases down x% (or do they only do that when it is a daily increase).
Well we must take any good (ish) news that we can. A few days ago it looked like we might be exploding just like France (they had an incredible 26,000 new cases yesterday). Perhaps, just perhaps, the 10pm curfews and so on are slowing it down. Inshallah!!
Weekend, let's see what it is on Monday.
Tuesday surely?
Monday still has a lagged weekend effect. Tuesday is generally the day everyone suddenly is horrified.
And more that six months into the pandemic it would be nice if the media would eventually start reporting numbers versus same day last week and not versus yesterday.
One reason that by specimen date is useful, for cases, is that the Sunday, Monday and, to an extent, Tuesday are in the weekend shadow. So the reporting is crammed into the rest of the week.
"How closely linked are lockdown and Brexit? | The Spectator Patrick West
Once upon a time, a long time ago, this country was consumed by the matter of Brexit. Everywhere you turned, in every medium, even among friends and colleagues, you couldn't get away from the subject: everyone was talking about Brexit. We were obsessed by it. From 2016 to 2019 there was no escape.
All of this changed this year. With the pandemic, the rancorous matter of Brexit vanished, or at least stopped becoming the emotive, divisive matter of primary concern. It has been relegated to a pedestrian news story about trading rights. In the year of the coronavirus and all its horrors, paranoia and despair, Brexit has become a sideshow. Right?
Wrong. While the clamorous conflict between Leavers and Remainers has ostensibly ceased, in our collective subconscious the same cleavage in our society remains – only the subject matter has changed. As you may have concluded from newspapers and your social media feed, Remainer and Leave camps have merely metamorphosed into pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown tribes."
Strangely enough just spent an hour chatting to a bloke I haven't seen since before lockdown. He was an extreme Remainer and told everyone so. Turns out he's now a ferocious anti-lockdowner. And is equally forthcoming in his views.
There is a definite type of person that is incapable of holding moderate views on anything, but never notices or seems to care how their extreme view on one thing is completely inconsistent with a similar view on another.
(And they often only hold those views because they love to argue - not saying that's true of your friend, of course).
Why are being a remainer and anti lockdown inconsistent? I am and can articulate why (as below ) - I also dont especially like to argue - I dont hold extreme views on anything much but will never just accept a majority view if I feel the impact of doing so is a disaster.Hence why I have strong views on brexit and lockdown
Good post @TSE. The Gallup poll, which showed 56% of Americans thinking they were better off than 4 yours ago, would also be another supporting factor. It is why I think Pence was smart to repeat ad infinitum, the stats about Trump's tax cuts giving families several extra thousand dollars. Contrary to what we may think here, most people are not that interested in politics or waking up every day and hating Trump. What gets posted on Twitter is really a representation of what a small subset of the population is thinking.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I would assume/hope that Sunak will walk from Cabinet before supporting a six month lockdown. He can rally the resistance from the back benches.
There's a morbid fascination in working out how bad it would have to get: for the UK to default. The ability to print our own money makes a default very unlikely - but not, I think, impossible
A 25% drop in GDP and a debt-to-GDP of 200%? I am not an economist. Maybe some expert out there can give us the odds
It is an interesting question.
Japanese (gross) debt-to-GDP is 214% and their long bond interest rate is 0.04% so I think even at those levels we'd have some way to go.
It is far likelier that, rather than an outright default, the government would default by inflation. Look for a relaxation of the Bank of England's inflation target from 2% to 4-5% for example. A 5% inflation rate reduces the debt by half in 15 years. In theory, the exchange rate would slump, but in practice, as all our trading partners face similar problems, that may not happen.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
Yes. People will comply with rules they don't like if a) there are stiff punishments AND b) they think they're likely to be caught. Our government has been excellent at announcing stiff punishments, but our police have not seriously enforced them as far as I can tell so it's been a bit of a farce. No wonder a poll said only 18% of people have followed the rules.
(Also the rules keep changing).
They have also not lead by example - Dominic Cummings etc
Incoming twattish journos with cases down x% (or do they only do that when it is a daily increase).
Well we must take any good (ish) news that we can. A few days ago it looked like we might be exploding just like France (they had an incredible 26,000 new cases yesterday). Perhaps, just perhaps, the 10pm curfews and so on are slowing it down. Inshallah!!
I was wrong about Hulkenberg and points, but also about how many cars would end up retiring. Verstappen bet ended up mildly profitable, but that's fine.
You could save a lot of time by accepting that Lewis Hamilton always wins. Did you not earlier in the season put the pb massive onto backing Hamilton to break Schumacher's record? It must be close now. There was also a SPotY tip from someone I think.
Incoming twattish journos with cases down x% (or do they only do that when it is a daily increase).
Well we must take any good (ish) news that we can. A few days ago it looked like we might be exploding just like France (they had an incredible 26,000 new cases yesterday). Perhaps, just perhaps, the 10pm curfews and so on are slowing it down. Inshallah!!
Weekend.
Does France not do weekends then?
The weekend effect tends to hit Sunday and Monday, in many countries - reporting what happened on Friday happens fairly well on Saturday.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
Yes. People will comply with rules they don't like if a) there are stiff punishments AND b) they think they're likely to be caught. Our government has been excellent at announcing stiff punishments, but our police have not seriously enforced them as far as I can tell so it's been a bit of a farce. No wonder a poll said only 18% of people have followed the rules.
(Also the rules keep changing).
They have also not lead by example - Dominic Cummings etc
The rules also need to be clear. They are not. If Cabinet ministers up to and including the Prime Minister himself do not understand the rules that they have imposed, what hope is there for masked social distancing on the Clapham omnibus?
The most important slide you'll see all day. Ask your MP to take a good look at it and then get into the chamber tomorrow and start asking some bloody hard questions of this administration.
Incoming twattish journos with cases down x% (or do they only do that when it is a daily increase).
Well we must take any good (ish) news that we can. A few days ago it looked like we might be exploding just like France (they had an incredible 26,000 new cases yesterday). Perhaps, just perhaps, the 10pm curfews and so on are slowing it down. Inshallah!!
Weekend.
Does France not do weekends then?
The weekend effect tends to hit Sunday and Monday, in many countries - reporting what happened on Friday happens fairly well on Saturday.
Well France has jumped above 26000 yesterday so lord knows what Monday will bring yet apparently it's all about how bad the UK is. Viewed from the outside - in Spain - the insular nature of the UK reporting reveals a huge level of ignorance and partisanship directing much of the 'news' while ignoring the fact that in much of the rest of Europe things are as bad or much worse. Of course much of the 'media' is simply driven by politics. Even Starmer has lost the plot recently and left himself exposed as a ditherer.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
Yes. People will comply with rules they don't like if a) there are stiff punishments AND b) they think they're likely to be caught. Our government has been excellent at announcing stiff punishments, but our police have not seriously enforced them as far as I can tell so it's been a bit of a farce. No wonder a poll said only 18% of people have followed the rules.
(Also the rules keep changing).
They have also not lead by example - Dominic Cummings etc
The rules also need to be clear. They are not. If Cabinet ministers up to and including the Prime Minister himself do not understand the rules that they have imposed, what hope is there for masked social distancing on the Clapham omnibus?
Schools it’s as clear as mud as well. Some sources say if there’s a case the whole bubble should isolate, others that it’s only if there are two cases in a fortnight, others still that it’s only students within two metres.
Whole thing is a farce. Surely the whole point of this bubbles bullshit is to send them home if there’s an infection without affecting the others? If not, what’s the point of it?
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I would assume/hope that Sunak will walk from Cabinet before supporting a six month lockdown. He can rally the resistance from the back benches.
There's a morbid fascination in working out how bad it would have to get: for the UK to default. The ability to print our own money makes a default very unlikely - but not, I think, impossible
A 25% drop in GDP and a debt-to-GDP of 200%? I am not an economist. Maybe some expert out there can give us the odds
It is an interesting question.
Japanese (gross) debt-to-GDP is 214% and their long bond interest rate is 0.04% so I think even at those levels we'd have some way to go.
It is far likelier that, rather than an outright default, the government would default by inflation. Look for a relaxation of the Bank of England's inflation target from 2% to 4-5% for example. A 5% inflation rate reduces the debt by half in 15 years. In theory, the exchange rate would slump, but in practice, as all our trading partners face similar problems, that may not happen.
Looking at the Whole of Government Accounts the official debt there includes public sector pension liabilities and contingent liabilities for nuclear decomissioning and medical claims .It becomes quite steep then!
I agree that inflation is likely soon and best to avoid low fixed rate bonds imo
The most important slide you'll see all day. Ask your MP to take a good look at it and then get into the chamber tomorrow and start asking some bloody hard questions of this administration.
No. I think you are on to something. He's more of an acquaintance round the village, but is always entertaining company as he is well informed and very opinionated. He seems utterly oblivious to the idea anyone may not agree with his less than consistent philosophy.
Yes, one of my best friends at school was like that. And still is. Except he doesn't live in a village.
In many years of knowing him, he has never had a moderate opinion on anything. Everything is always black or white. And yesterday's black can become today's white easily enough if he forgets what he said.
And he won the world debating championship at one point. Arguing with him is like facing a battering ram.
We should start publishing effects of lockdown like missed education days etc .Then we may make more balanced decisions on covid-19
What are you on about ? There's barely any missed education days (Except when students have had a close covid contact or have the disease themselves). Schools have now been prioritised to stay open and rightly so.
In terms of early voting in a normal election year the Dems historically have a small lead going into election day. This time they’re likely to have a massive lead .
This needs to be factored into polling especially in swing states where you’re now going to have many more solid votes counted than in previous election cycles .
For Trump that means he needs an even bigger turnaround in voting intention of those that haven’t voted yet than would normally be the case .
We should start publishing effects of lockdown like missed education days etc .Then we may make more balanced decisions on covid-19
What are you on about ? There's barely any missed education days (Except when students have had a close covid contact or have the disease themselves). Schools have now been prioritised to stay open and rightly so.
Maybe 1 in a 100 ? a bit like covid-19 cases ratio then? Why the bile about publishing effects of lockdown? More stats gives better decisions - both ways
I was wrong about Hulkenberg and points, but also about how many cars would end up retiring. Verstappen bet ended up mildly profitable, but that's fine.
You could save a lot of time by accepting that Lewis Hamilton always wins. Did you not earlier in the season put the pb massive onto backing Hamilton to break Schumacher's record? It must be close now. There was also a SPotY tip from someone I think.
Actually it might have been Ronnie O'Sullivan for SPotY.
What drivel . 38% v 34% and 28% didn’t know . So how can that been seen as the public thinking Brexit will be good in the long term when you can’t even get over 50% .
In terms of early voting in a normal election year the Dems historically have a small lead going into election day. This time they’re likely to have a massive lead .
This needs to be factored into polling especially in swing states where you’re now going to have many more solid votes counted than in previous election cycles .
For Trump that means he needs an even bigger turnaround in voting intention of those that haven’t voted yet than would normally be the case .
The most dedicated supporters are the earliest voters.
Fucking hell. That's the death of a city right there.
Why the hell are they saying now that it could be six months? I thought they have a team of behaviour specialists involved or have they all resigned in disgust?
Fucking hell. That's the death of a city right there.
Why the hell are they saying now that it could be six months? I thought they have a team of behaviour specialists involved or have they all resigned in disgust?
Because they think it could follow a similar pattern to the annual flu outbreak.
What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.
Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
How to completely wipe out an economy.
Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
Yes. People will comply with rules they don't like if a) there are stiff punishments AND b) they think they're likely to be caught. Our government has been excellent at announcing stiff punishments, but our police have not seriously enforced them as far as I can tell so it's been a bit of a farce. No wonder a poll said only 18% of people have followed the rules.
(Also the rules keep changing).
They have also not lead by example - Dominic Cummings etc
The rules also need to be clear. They are not. If Cabinet ministers up to and including the Prime Minister himself do not understand the rules that they have imposed, what hope is there for masked social distancing on the Clapham omnibus?
Schools it’s as clear as mud as well. Some sources say if there’s a case the whole bubble should isolate, others that it’s only if there are two cases in a fortnight, others still that it’s only students within two metres.
Whole thing is a farce. Surely the whole point of this bubbles bullshit is to send them home if there’s an infection without affecting the others? If not, what’s the point of it?
Hmm. Thinking about it, that makes no sense. Surely Eton pupils live in separate houses so there should be house-based bubbles, not yeargroup bubbles. Maybe keep an eye on the corrections column.
Fucking hell. That's the death of a city right there.
Why the hell are they saying now that it could be six months? I thought they have a team of behaviour specialists involved or have they all resigned in disgust?
Because they are being honest, maybe, but in this case they should have lied, like Sturgeon, and pretended it was just a fortnight then a review
Fucking hell. That's the death of a city right there.
Why the hell are they saying now that it could be six months? I thought they have a team of behaviour specialists involved or have they all resigned in disgust?
Presumably because they are regularly criticised for having no plan but whackamole (which may well be true), and a six months reviewed every month at least sounds like a long term, stable plan, whilst actually still being flexible. Also, as in the first lockdown they warned people it might last months to mentally prepare people (though I expect it will go down less well this time).
So people who want to socialise and drink will go to restaurants. Which means, logically, that they will have to stop restaurants serving booze? As Sturgeon did in Glasgow.
Fucking hell. That's the death of a city right there.
Why the hell are they saying now that it could be six months? I thought they have a team of behaviour specialists involved or have they all resigned in disgust?
Because they are being honest, maybe, but in this case they should have lied, like Sturgeon, and pretended it was just a fortnight then a review
No wonder there are rows about the coming lockdowns.
If so, this answers the question on where Boris is at on the lockdown-open-up spectrum.... Way down the lock down end of that....
Fucking hell. That's the death of a city right there.
Why the hell are they saying now that it could be six months? I thought they have a team of behaviour specialists involved or have they all resigned in disgust?
Because they think it could follow a similar pattern to the annual flu outbreak.
You'd hope that the massive intervention would have some effect to suppress the numbers, as achieved earlier in the year.
What drivel . 38% v 34% and 28% didn’t know . So how can that been seen as the public thinking Brexit will be good in the long term when you can’t even get over 50% .
It is not drivel.
It is a poll that gives the first indication that the public think it may be good
Fucking hell. That's the death of a city right there.
It's such a huge overreaction given that the cases are student related.
Yes decisions made by people who are protected from the front line economic collapse it will bring to places like Liverpool and Nottingham. Both councils stuffed with public sector staff , thinking they wlll be no worse off.
Comments
(And they often only hold those views because they love to argue - not saying that's true of your friend, of course).
A 25% drop in GDP and a debt-to-GDP of 200%? I am not an economist. Maybe some expert out there can give us the odds
(Also the rules keep changing).
He seems utterly oblivious to the idea anyone may not agree with his less than consistent philosophy.
The numbers on what would happen in the first hour of such a war are pretty incredible.
Japanese (gross) debt-to-GDP is 214% and their long bond interest rate is 0.04% so I think even at those levels we'd have some way to go.
It is far likelier that, rather than an outright default, the government would default by inflation. Look for a relaxation of the Bank of England's inflation target from 2% to 4-5% for example. A 5% inflation rate reduces the debt by half in 15 years. In theory, the exchange rate would slump, but in practice, as all our trading partners face similar problems, that may not happen.
Including 1.65m votes in Florida.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Whole thing is a farce. Surely the whole point of this bubbles bullshit is to send them home if there’s an infection without affecting the others? If not, what’s the point of it?
I agree that inflation is likely soon and best to avoid low fixed rate bonds imo
In many years of knowing him, he has never had a moderate opinion on anything. Everything is always black or white. And yesterday's black can become today's white easily enough if he forgets what he said.
And he won the world debating championship at one point. Arguing with him is like facing a battering ram.
Rules are too complicated.
Government ministers and others don't follow the rules.
Jesus.
This needs to be factored into polling especially in swing states where you’re now going to have many more solid votes counted than in previous election cycles .
For Trump that means he needs an even bigger turnaround in voting intention of those that haven’t voted yet than would normally be the case .
Taps head
You can say whatever you want, as long as Piers agrees with it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/10/eton-parents-accuse-school-spreading-virus-round-country-pupils/
Hmm. Thinking about it, that makes no sense. Surely Eton pupils live in separate houses so there should be house-based bubbles, not yeargroup bubbles. Maybe keep an eye on the corrections column.
Which is why the figures there are worse than the raw numbers might suggest.
Crazy to shut a whole city and crater its economy for that.
If so, this answers the question on where Boris is at on the lockdown-open-up spectrum.... Way down the lock down end of that....
Just close the entire hospitality industry and support it with Government money. That would be far more sensible.
It is a poll that gives the first indication that the public think it may be good