Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid – politicalbetting.com

124

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,584
    edited October 2020
    To be honest the way John W. Henry and FSG have turned Liverpool from a basket case club heading for administration to the champions of everything club we should back FSG's proposal to turn around English football, they have an excellent track record.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,169
    Scott_xP said:

    Can't have a national lockdown if every region is locked down

    Taps head

    https://twitter.com/BareReality/status/1306897564885831680

    Correction - it can't be a regional lockdown, if everywhere that major journalists live is locked down.

    Someone should do a "Map of Britain according to....."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
  • ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    One of your five a day in some circles (I had some weird friends at Uni)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    The more I reflect, the more I think Sturgeon behaved reasonably correctly. Compare & contrast:

    The SNP Way:

    Allegations are received about sexual misbehaviour of a senior politician.
    The First Minister refuses to quash them & decides they should be investigated.
    The complainants and the politician have their day in court.
    The politician is acquitted of the charges, except for one not proven.

    The Labour Way:

    Allegations are received about sexual misbehaviour of a senior politician.
    The First Minister selectively leaks details to the press.
    The senior politician hangs himself.
    The Labour party commissions a report on the matters leading to the suicide, which is suppressed.
    The First Minister resigns.

    It seems to me astonishing that the party facing any questions is the SNP.

    RIP Carl Sergeant.
  • ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,005
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    One of your five a day in some circles (I had some weird friends at Uni)
    You should have told them to hop it.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    One of your five a day in some circles (I had some weird friends at Uni)
    You should have told them to hop it.
    That's barley a pun.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    nico679 said:

    In terms of early voting in a normal election year the Dems historically have a small lead going into election day. This time they’re likely to have a massive lead .

    This needs to be factored into polling especially in swing states where you’re now going to have many more solid votes counted than in previous election cycles .

    For Trump that means he needs an even bigger turnaround in voting intention of those that haven’t voted yet than would normally be the case .

    Ideally Voting intention should already be capturing the already voteds. So a 51%Biden 49% Trump split would still likely favour Trump in the EC but getting thefre from the current VI (about 53v45) is going to be so much harder if 5-10% have already voted.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1315269891927277568

    You can say whatever you want, as long as Piers agrees with it

    Piers Morgan is calling for less snarling?
    It's like taxes and lockdown laws.
    For other people.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    One of your five a day in some circles (I had some weird friends at Uni)
    You should have told them to hop it.
    That's barley a pun.
    Wheat a suggestion.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
    As a not terribly good Gloucestershire boy I know far too much about two things. One is cider and the other is...oh, baaa.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    The only thing worse than Strongbow is Dark Fruit. Cider and black but jacking up the price.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,169
    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1315269891927277568

    You can say whatever you want, as long as Piers agrees with it

    Piers Morgan is calling for less snarling?
    It's like taxes and lockdown laws.
    For other people.
    Another irregular verb....

    I speak pungent truth.
    You are rude
    He is snarling
  • To be honest the way John W. Henry and FSG have turned Liverpool from a basket case club heading for administration to the champions of everything club we should back FSG's proposal to turn around English football, they have an excellent track record.

    No conflict of interests here at all!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    In terms of early voting in a normal election year the Dems historically have a small lead going into election day. This time they’re likely to have a massive lead .

    This needs to be factored into polling especially in swing states where you’re now going to have many more solid votes counted than in previous election cycles .

    For Trump that means he needs an even bigger turnaround in voting intention of those that haven’t voted yet than would normally be the case .

    The most dedicated supporters are the earliest voters.
    That’s irrelevant because of the massive increase in early and mail in voting .It’s likely around 60% will have voted before Election Day and even more in some swing states .

    Swing state polling in quite a few states as was mentioned earlier are partial exit polls . This means that Trump needs an even bigger lead in those voting on the day to even get close .
  • To be honest the way John W. Henry and FSG have turned Liverpool from a basket case club heading for administration to the champions of everything club we should back FSG's proposal to turn around English football, they have an excellent track record.

    No conflict of interests here at all!
    Nope, look at the way John W. Henry and FSG broke the curse of the Bambino, these guys are the best in sports world, no wonder FSG is valued at $8 billion, and Liverpool FC north of £2 billion after FSG bought Liverpool FC for £300 million a decade ago.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    The money won't be enough to cover the damage done, long term, to biz confidence, to mental health, to everything. They are such idiots. This is led by mad scientists who have hypnotised terrified politicians
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    I was talking to an American friend yesterday. She has already sent off her "Absentee Vote" but said, that absentee votes are only counted if a state is close enough for it it make a difference. Is that true? It seems really odd to me. I can understand that they are not included in preliminiary results, when the state is officially declared REP or DEM, but they also publish final results, which take a couple of weeks to compile. I can't see why absentee votes should not be included in the full results.

    BTW she explained to me that an absentee vote is different from a mail in vote. I hadn't appreciated the difference before.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    Knowsley is the weird one, obviously it's close to Liverpool University but it's not massively so and Liverpool already has loads of cases.

    Word is there isn't much infection at all in the Liverpool Unis.
    Which is why the figures there are worse than the raw numbers might suggest.
    Given that the rise in cases started after the start of term I find that hard to believe.
    Am only going off what the local news was saying. Of course, if the figures were openly published with such a breakdown it would be easier to tell...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    eristdoof said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey Nottingham. Come from nowhere to hit the front in England.

    Two major universities.
    One major university and one major poly.
    You're still living in the nineties.
    No need to take the PCAS, you'll only make him UCCAty.
  • eristdoof said:

    I was talking to an American friend yesterday. She has already sent off her "Absentee Vote" but said, that absentee votes are only counted if a state is close enough for it it make a difference. Is that true? It seems really odd to me. I can understand that they are not included in preliminiary results, when the state is officially declared REP or DEM, but they also publish final results, which take a couple of weeks to compile. I can't see why absentee votes should not be included in the full results.

    BTW she explained to me that an absentee vote is different from a mail in vote. I hadn't appreciated the difference before.

    What is the difference?
  • To be honest the way John W. Henry and FSG have turned Liverpool from a basket case club heading for administration to the champions of everything club we should back FSG's proposal to turn around English football, they have an excellent track record.

    No conflict of interests here at all!
    Nope, look at the way John W. Henry and FSG broke the curse of the Bambino, these guys are the best in sports world, no wonder FSG is valued at $8 billion, and Liverpool FC north of £2 billion after FSG bought Liverpool FC for £300 million a decade ago.
    Yes, and now they want to change football to the American sports franchise model in order to safeguard their investment. It's not philanthropy.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1315269891927277568

    You can say whatever you want, as long as Piers agrees with it

    If Piers Morgan is against it then I am for it!!!!

    What is it about?
  • To be honest the way John W. Henry and FSG have turned Liverpool from a basket case club heading for administration to the champions of everything club we should back FSG's proposal to turn around English football, they have an excellent track record.

    No conflict of interests here at all!
    Nope, look at the way John W. Henry and FSG broke the curse of the Bambino, these guys are the best in sports world, no wonder FSG is valued at $8 billion, and Liverpool FC north of £2 billion after FSG bought Liverpool FC for £300 million a decade ago.
    Yes, and now they want to change football to the American sports franchise model in order to safeguard their investment. It's not philanthropy.
    FSG have never taken a penny out of The Red Sox or Liverpool, they are excellent custodians.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,005
    edited October 2020
    eristdoof said:

    I was talking to an American friend yesterday. She has already sent off her "Absentee Vote" but said, that absentee votes are only counted if a state is close enough for it it make a difference. Is that true? It seems really odd to me. I can understand that they are not included in preliminiary results, when the state is officially declared REP or DEM, but they also publish final results, which take a couple of weeks to compile. I can't see why absentee votes should not be included in the full results.

    BTW she explained to me that an absentee vote is different from a mail in vote. I hadn't appreciated the difference before.

    Every state has different rules.
    https://www.vote.org/absentee-voting-rules/

    I think they’re all supposed to be counted, but I suspect for some states where the outcome is clear (eg CA), they give up at some point.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    nico679 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    In terms of early voting in a normal election year the Dems historically have a small lead going into election day. This time they’re likely to have a massive lead .

    This needs to be factored into polling especially in swing states where you’re now going to have many more solid votes counted than in previous election cycles .

    For Trump that means he needs an even bigger turnaround in voting intention of those that haven’t voted yet than would normally be the case .

    The most dedicated supporters are the earliest voters.
    That’s irrelevant because of the massive increase in early and mail in voting .It’s likely around 60% will have voted before Election Day and even more in some swing states .

    Swing state polling in quite a few states as was mentioned earlier are partial exit polls . This means that Trump needs an even bigger lead in those voting on the day to even get close .
    No he needs the same lead in votes. He needs a bigger lead for the on the day voting. The polls are not 100% "on the day voting"
  • To be honest the way John W. Henry and FSG have turned Liverpool from a basket case club heading for administration to the champions of everything club we should back FSG's proposal to turn around English football, they have an excellent track record.

    No conflict of interests here at all!
    Nope, look at the way John W. Henry and FSG broke the curse of the Bambino, these guys are the best in sports world, no wonder FSG is valued at $8 billion, and Liverpool FC north of £2 billion after FSG bought Liverpool FC for £300 million a decade ago.
    My apologies, please forgive my lack of education but I didn't realise prior commercial success meant that you couldn't have a conflict of interest.
  • To be honest the way John W. Henry and FSG have turned Liverpool from a basket case club heading for administration to the champions of everything club we should back FSG's proposal to turn around English football, they have an excellent track record.

    No conflict of interests here at all!
    Nope, look at the way John W. Henry and FSG broke the curse of the Bambino, these guys are the best in sports world, no wonder FSG is valued at $8 billion, and Liverpool FC north of £2 billion after FSG bought Liverpool FC for £300 million a decade ago.
    My apologies, please forgive my lack of education but I didn't realise prior commercial success meant that you couldn't have a conflict of interest.
    Happy to help.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
    As a not terribly good Gloucestershire boy I know far too much about two things. One is cider and the other is...oh, baaa.
    Wot no limb breaking by chasing cheese down a steep hill?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    What's happened to Ohio? I was sitting on a 15% profit and now its all gone.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Fishing said:

    LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    What is wrong with people, since when were shops closing or is it they think they won’t be able to go to the Trafford Centre?
    They expect lockdown 2 to last six months and all the non essential shops to close.

    Manchester is plague central at the moment with the two unis.
    How to completely wipe out an economy.
    Indeed. If big cities like Manc really do get a 6 month total lockdown then the UK will go bust
    I doubt it because people simply wouldn't obey.
    In a country like South Korea the government can issue orders and 99.9% of the population will do what they're told. Even though it's officially a liberal democracy it's still quite authoritarian beneath the surface.
    Yes. People will comply with rules they don't like if a) there are stiff punishments AND b) they think they're likely to be caught. Our government has been excellent at announcing stiff punishments, but our police have not seriously enforced them as far as I can tell so it's been a bit of a farce. No wonder a poll said only 18% of people have followed the rules.

    (Also the rules keep changing).
    Well quite. At every stage of this the scientists and politicians have told us that the current rules in place are sufficient if people follow them. And in most cases they have emphasised this by not just issuing "guidance" but putting it into legislation.

    But then at every stage they have done virtually nothing to actually enforce the guidance/legislation that they have imposed and have said is absolutely crucial to avoid further tighter restrictions a.k.a destroying the economy of the country.

    Why introduce legislation if you are not going to make some effort to enforce it? You can't wish compliance on a population, especially when there will always be a signifiant minority who will carry on as normal.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
    As a not terribly good Gloucestershire boy I know far too much about two things. One is cider and the other is...oh, baaa.
    Wot no limb breaking by chasing cheese down a steep hill?
    C B Fry was on the Gloucestershire cheese rolling team.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,000
    edited October 2020
    Liverpool leader confirming discussions are on going and sends 'all credit' to the officials in Downing Street in anticipating a deal
  • Liverpool leader confirming discussions are on going and sends 'all credit to the officials in Downing Street in anticipating a deal

    I'm guessing it will be an 80% wage furlough. Possibly more business support too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
    As a not terribly good Gloucestershire boy I know far too much about two things. One is cider and the other is...oh, baaa.
    Growing up in Ledbury, mine's a pint of Stowford Press please! Actually make that a pint of non descript lager, I can't stand cider.
  • Liverpool leader confirming discussions are on going and sends 'all credit to the officials in Downing Street in anticipating a deal

    I'm guessing it will be an 80% wage furlough. Possibly more business support too.
    And local testing but I have to say it is a strange world when Liverpool leader is praising HMG
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum
  • Alistair said:

    What's happened to Ohio? I was sitting on a 15% profit and now its all gone.

    My thread has moved the markets once again.

    Must be the Baldwin Wallace University poll for Ohio published today that has Trump ahead by 2%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Have they seen maps with infection rates?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,559
    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    It has the feel of the Thatcher government trialling the poll tax in Scotland.
  • RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Have they seen maps with infection rates?
    They have.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1315031019079249920
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
    As a not terribly good Gloucestershire boy I know far too much about two things. One is cider and the other is...oh, baaa.
    Wot no limb breaking by chasing cheese down a steep hill?
    That was in Gloucester, not the Forest.

    They’re a funny lot in Gloucester.
  • Wonder how much BoJo has bribed the Mayors
  • Twitter is not real life though, don't forget that
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    I was talking to an American friend yesterday. She has already sent off her "Absentee Vote" but said, that absentee votes are only counted if a state is close enough for it it make a difference. Is that true? It seems really odd to me. I can understand that they are not included in preliminiary results, when the state is officially declared REP or DEM, but they also publish final results, which take a couple of weeks to compile. I can't see why absentee votes should not be included in the full results.

    BTW she explained to me that an absentee vote is different from a mail in vote. I hadn't appreciated the difference before.

    Every state has different rules.
    https://www.vote.org/absentee-voting-rules/

    I think they’re all supposed to be counted, but I suspect for some states where the outcome is clear (eg CA), they give up at some point.
    OK. Still seems unfair. She votes in New York, so if that's not one of the "states where the outcome is clear" then the it's going to be a long hard cold winter.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    It has the feel of the Thatcher government trialling the poll tax in Scotland.
    Yes. For this reason I expect similar shit to be done in London. Unfortunately. The gym keeps me sane

    Six months.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    What's happened to Ohio? I was sitting on a 15% profit and now its all gone.

    My thread has moved the markets once again.

    Must be the Baldwin Wallace University poll for Ohio published today that has Trump ahead by 2%
    Yeah, just reading the poll now. It looks solid. It is a poll of all the states that matter, Wisconsin, pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.

    Best question is "If Donald Trump loses the election, do you think he will accept the results and concede once the votes have been certified?"

    About 58% say No.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    It has the feel of the Thatcher government trialling the poll tax in Scotland.
    As I recall, the verdict was ‘not proven.’
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Have they seen maps with infection rates?
    They have.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1315031019079249920
    Have they been living there or not? I don't think it will come as a surprise to many that government ministers tend to spend a lot of time living in London.
  • Any Northern political leader/mayor are the modern day equivalent of Vichy France for going along with the southern Boris Johnson's proposals for Harrying of the North.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    These battleground states allow early processing of mail in ballots over several days.

    Iowa, Florida , Arizona , North Carolina , Georgia and Ohio .

    That means that these will most certainly be showing a big Biden lead as counting starts .

    It’s more complicated with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

    Only Michigan allows early processing of just one day , the other two can only start processing on Election Day .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2020
    Deleted.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Have they seen maps with infection rates?
    They have.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1315031019079249920
    Have they been living there or not? I don't think it will come as a surprise to many that government ministers tend to spend a lot of time living in London.
    Irrelevant, why aren't they locking down those regions represented by those ministers?
  • LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    It has the feel of the Thatcher government trialling the poll tax in Scotland.
    No need for that.

    Sturgeon and the SNP got there first
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,703
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Of course it won't because:

    1) The lockdown measures have overwhelming public support

    2) Almost nobody sees the lockdown measures as a party political issue (the only people who even see it as any kind of political issue are a few libertarian fanatics)

    It won't influence votes whatsoever at a GE (other than those libertarian fanatics who are a tiny % of the population).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Have they seen maps with infection rates?
    They have.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1315031019079249920
    Have they been living there or not? I don't think it will come as a surprise to many that government ministers tend to spend a lot of time living in London.
    Irrelevant, why aren't they locking down those regions represented by those ministers?
    Why is it irrelevant if they aren't actually living there?
  • Wonder how much BoJo has bribed the Mayors

    What are you alleging
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346

    Any Northern political leader/mayor are the modern day equivalent of Vichy France for going along with the southern Boris Johnson's proposals for Harrying of the North.

    Anyone who allows Boris Johnson to get within Petain distance is reckless to the point of stupidity.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MikeL said:

    LadyG said:

    This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Of course it won't because:

    1) The lockdown measures have overwhelming public support

    2) Almost nobody sees the lockdown measures as a party political issue (the only people who even see it as any kind of political issue are a few libertarian fanatics)

    It won't influence votes whatsoever at a GE (other than those libertarian fanatics who are a tiny % of the population).
    I don't think there will be "overwhelming support" by the time we reach early January, and all the pubs have been shut since mid October
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346
    This is a pasty tax looking for somewhere to happen, isn’t it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    LadyG said:

    This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Of course it won't because:

    1) The lockdown measures have overwhelming public support

    2) Almost nobody sees the lockdown measures as a party political issue (the only people who even see it as any kind of political issue are a few libertarian fanatics)

    It won't influence votes whatsoever at a GE (other than those libertarian fanatics who are a tiny % of the population).
    It will though if the economy is more adversely affected with respect to affluent areas.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,584
    edited October 2020
    As the archetypal Yorkshireman (aka proper Northerner) on PB I can say with great assurance these lockdown proposals will go down very poorly in the desolate North.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    That'll be the Liverpool v Athletico Madrid effect finally rearing its head.
  • As the archetypal Yorkshireman (aka proper Northerner) on PB I can say with great assurance these lockdown proposals will go down very poorly in the desolate North.

    Agreed

    Was in town yesterday and met up with some totally non political people for first time since March.

    They will simply ignore any new rules and will continue to live as normally as possible.

    There is massive resentment amongst the normal people that they are about to be asked to restrict their lives again, yet the southerners are not.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,703
    dixiedean said:

    MikeL said:

    LadyG said:

    This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Of course it won't because:

    1) The lockdown measures have overwhelming public support

    2) Almost nobody sees the lockdown measures as a party political issue (the only people who even see it as any kind of political issue are a few libertarian fanatics)

    It won't influence votes whatsoever at a GE (other than those libertarian fanatics who are a tiny % of the population).
    It will though if the economy is more adversely affected with respect to affluent areas.
    Ok, yes, but then it's a slightly different matter as it'll come down to whether the Govt has done enough to support the economy etc in those areas.

    I don't think the principle of the lockdown will cost votes.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I don't know if at least some Conservatives were genuine when criticising Labour's love of the "magic money tree", but i think it is pretty clear that Johnson never was. As has always been obvious throughout his political career.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Doesn't make any sense if, at present, the north is harder hit, but then people often don't make sense.

    I would not be surprised if there will be lots of angry people, even as polling shows people support measures even in their own areas when cases rise, as they have been. So inconsistent.

    Honestly, what is supposed to happen? If people are against a national lockdown, you have regional ones, which inevitably mean some areas targeted ahead of others.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    As the archetypal Yorkshireman (aka proper Northerner) on PB I can say with great assurance these lockdown proposals will go down very poorly in the desolate North.

    Agreed

    Was in town yesterday and met up with some totally non political people for first time since March.

    They will simply ignore any new rules and will continue to live as normally as possible.

    There is massive resentment amongst the normal people that they are about to be asked to restrict their lives again, yet the southerners are not.
    The lockdowns are coming in areas with high incidence of the virus. Who'd have thunk it.
  • Labour has some political opportunity to make this into a "us and them" again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020
    MikeL said:

    LadyG said:

    This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Of course it won't because:

    1) The lockdown measures have overwhelming public support

    2) Almost nobody sees the lockdown measures as a party political issue (the only people who even see it as any kind of political issue are a few libertarian fanatics)

    It won't influence votes whatsoever at a GE (other than those libertarian fanatics who are a tiny % of the population).
    I think that may be an overly rational view of the situation. Even if it makes sense some number of people will complain about facing restrictions others do not.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Have they seen maps with infection rates?
    They have.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1315031019079249920
    Have they been living there or not? I don't think it will come as a surprise to many that government ministers tend to spend a lot of time living in London.
    Irrelevant, why aren't they locking down those regions represented by those ministers?
    Why is it irrelevant if they aren't actually living there?
    Jenrick was rather emphatic about saying he did live in his country house. Context is key.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    Lots of angry notherners on Twitter saying the south is being spared. This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Have they seen maps with infection rates?
    They have.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1315031019079249920
    Have they been living there or not? I don't think it will come as a surprise to many that government ministers tend to spend a lot of time living in London.
    Irrelevant, why aren't they locking down those regions represented by those ministers?
    Why is it irrelevant if they aren't actually living there?
    Jenrick was rather emphatic about saying he did live in his country house. Context is key.
    I'm sure he was living there for the purposes of that particular controversy.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I suspect a lot of people are thinking back to lockdown in March/April as remembering it "wasn't so bad". But then the weather was great, we could leave our houses and wander about in glorious sunshine, we were getting inspired by the novelty of home working, discovering Zoom and all the other video socialising options etc.

    It won't be anything like that in autumn, winter. Going out will be miserable, there won't be quite the same sense of social camaraderie standing in the pouring rain waiting to get into supermarkets, people tired of video socialising long ago. It's just going to be grim. And plenty of potential for social unrest if policies are local and not national. Published figures don't tell the full story, but they are all that people see and they create resentment when they see some areas without restrictions whereas others do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346
    edited October 2020
    Well, first of all I would never have expected it of you. But second, what were you doing in Bishop Auckland? You’re supposed to be locked down in South Wales and all the serious lockdown breakers go to Barnard Castle.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    She's not lying. That really is quite depressing
  • Tomorrow is likely to be a big day in the covid story

    Boris puts forward a traffic light scheme for regulation of covid outbreaks to the HOC

    The HOC will vent fury from some quarters and including conservative and labour mps

    Labour will either vote for or abstain so the laws will come in from Wednesday

    Liverpool go to tier 3 lockdown with mutual agreement with the Liverpool leaders and HMG

    Manchester and other areas will have tier 2 lockdown but again the leaders will agree because compensation packages modelled on Liverpool will apply per tier lockdown

    I may be wrong but I would be surprised if this is not near the position at the end of tomorrow
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Scott_xP said:
    But why are Spanish numbers coming down? Maybe there's a barrier that we and France are just yet to hit?
  • RobD said:

    As the archetypal Yorkshireman (aka proper Northerner) on PB I can say with great assurance these lockdown proposals will go down very poorly in the desolate North.

    Agreed

    Was in town yesterday and met up with some totally non political people for first time since March.

    They will simply ignore any new rules and will continue to live as normally as possible.

    There is massive resentment amongst the normal people that they are about to be asked to restrict their lives again, yet the southerners are not.
    The lockdowns are coming in areas with high incidence of the virus. Who'd have thunk it.
    General comment was that the lock downs that the north is having to face is the fault of southerners in government.

    People just want an effective government, like in Germany, not to be locked down again.

    Alas our incompetent government, full of southerners, is causing the north to have to lock down as they are utterly unable to replicate the relative success of countries like Germany.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.
  • LadyG said:

    MikeL said:

    LadyG said:

    This is going to kill the Tories north of Brum

    Of course it won't because:

    1) The lockdown measures have overwhelming public support

    2) Almost nobody sees the lockdown measures as a party political issue (the only people who even see it as any kind of political issue are a few libertarian fanatics)

    It won't influence votes whatsoever at a GE (other than those libertarian fanatics who are a tiny % of the population).
    I don't think there will be "overwhelming support" by the time we reach early January, and all the pubs have been shut since mid October
    Why? The pubs were shut for nearly four months previously and it still maintained overwhelming support at the time.

    Don't rely upon people changing their mind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
    As a not terribly good Gloucestershire boy I know far too much about two things. One is cider and the other is...oh, baaa.
    Wot no limb breaking by chasing cheese down a steep hill?
    That was in Gloucester, not the Forest.

    They’re a funny lot in Gloucester.
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    What is to stop a pub being a restaurant?
    It has to serve warm food IIRC.
    Does beer count as food?
    No.

    Like the way cider doesn't count as one of your five fruit and veg a day.
    Well, it depends. Strongbow, maybe not. Proper cider, however...
    As a good Muslim boy I have no idea about the hierarchy of ciders.
    As a not terribly good Gloucestershire boy I know far too much about two things. One is cider and the other is...oh, baaa.
    Wot no limb breaking by chasing cheese down a steep hill?
    That was in Gloucester, not the Forest.

    They’re a funny lot in Gloucester.
    Hmmm. I could hear dualling banjos from Gloucester and the Forest on my side of the County line.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    edited October 2020
    RobD said:

    As the archetypal Yorkshireman (aka proper Northerner) on PB I can say with great assurance these lockdown proposals will go down very poorly in the desolate North.

    Agreed

    Was in town yesterday and met up with some totally non political people for first time since March.

    They will simply ignore any new rules and will continue to live as normally as possible.

    There is massive resentment amongst the normal people that they are about to be asked to restrict their lives again, yet the southerners are not.
    The lockdowns are coming in areas with high incidence of the virus. Who'd have thunk it.
    Yeah, and those southerners got the plague and died in quite large numbers in the spring, so the idea that the south is being spared is quite simply a load of bollocks.
  • dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    alex_ said:

    I suspect a lot of people are thinking back to lockdown in March/April as remembering it "wasn't so bad". But then the weather was great, we could leave our houses and wander about in glorious sunshine, we were getting inspired by the novelty of home working, discovering Zoom and all the other video socialising options etc.

    It won't be anything like that in autumn, winter. Going out will be miserable, there won't be quite the same sense of social camaraderie standing in the pouring rain waiting to get into supermarkets, people tired of video socialising long ago. It's just going to be grim. And plenty of potential for social unrest if policies are local and not national. Published figures don't tell the full story, but they are all that people see and they create resentment when they see some areas without restrictions whereas others do.

    There won't be any singing from rooftops or clapping for carers this time. Just relentless isolation and increasing misery as the nights get ever longer and the days get ever colder.

    Chances of rebellion, somehow, somewhere, in some form, must be quite high
  • dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Number 2 is very likely true according to my father's former colleagues.

    The irony is if we had regional unlockdowns in July we wouldn't be seeing today's problems.
    Agree with this - we came out of the first lockdown too early.

    We should have just been opening hospitality now.
  • dixiedean said:

    A dangerous narrative taking hold.
    1 We locked down because of high cases and irresponsibility in London.
    2 We unlocked too early because of falling numbers of cases Down South before it was under control in the North.
    3 We were exhorted to get out and about and in the office because of fears about the London property market.
    4 Students arrived from middle class areas and spread the virus.
    5 Now the North is being locked down because cases Down South have begun to rise.

    Not sure of the 100% veracity of all that, but it is a view which is widely held.

    Andy Burnham complained at the time that the initial lock down was too early and was based on falling numbers down south and took zero notice of what is going on in the north.

    This forum shows just how out of touch many southerners are in terms of how people in the north think and operate.

    Won't just be Scotland and Northern Ireland leaving England at this rate, there is real anger out there at the southern government.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
This discussion has been closed.