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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19 – politicalbetting

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.

    'Poor man', my arse - he deserves all the ignomy coming his way, and some.
    He'd hate someone saying "poor man" about him. Ridicule and condescension is all he deserves. I really don't feel sorry for him - for the record.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
    By moving there and registering.

    Last time I checked even if I upped sticks and moved to Talinn ( lovely city btw), I couldn’t register to vote.
    I'd be completely down with EU citizens having the right to vote in each other's national elections, but strangely Eurosceptics probably weren't as keen.
  • I see we’re getting into the choreographed Punchy and Judy stages of Brexit now.

    Clearly there’s a late night claret-soaked compromise still to be struck on fish but I’d say we’re at about a 70% chance of a deal now.

    Ever the optimist, Mr. Bond.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    Of the last 6 UK MPs, 4 took power without a General Election.
    But every single one of them was chosen by MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which General Election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    welshowl said:


    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    But tell me, given Dominic Cummings holds such an influential post, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?
    lol seriously?

    Vote the Tories out at the next election and he'll be gone forever.
    This is too difficult to understand...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
    By moving there and registering.

    Last time I checked even if I upped sticks and moved to Talinn ( lovely city btw), I couldn’t register to vote.
    Well you could vote in European Elections, so you would have a say in the European Commission, and you could still vote in UK General Elections, so you'd retain a say in the European Council President via your say in the UK.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    It has recently been stated as a fact that Biden is not doing as well in the State polls as in the National polls. However, this seemed to be based on little more than the examination of individual state and national polls, rather than an analysis in the aggregate. Therefore, I decided to look at this to see whether there was a systematic difference.

    To do so I looked at the 538 polling averages for each state (note there is not a 538 polling average for DC, NE, RI, SD or WY) and at the national level. I calculated the swing for each state compared to the 2016 result, and the difference between the state swing and the national swing. I could then plot this difference against Clinton's lead for each state. This is the attached plot.

    I would say that the hypothesis is disproved. There are many states where the polling average implies a greater swing than the national swing, and many where it is less. There is a suggestion that the swing to Biden is greatest in states lost by Clinton by the widest margins, and least in those Clinton won comfortably. This would be consistent with the idea of Biden as a much less polarising figure than Clinton who has a greater chance of unifying the country to some extent (though this would seem to be an obvious observation).


    Could you put a 6 order polynomial trend line through that to make it official.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    I see we’re getting into the choreographed Punchy and Judy stages of Brexit now.

    Clearly there’s a late night claret-soaked compromise still to be struck on fish but I’d say we’re at about a 70% chance of a deal now.

    It's much higher than that. Neither side could handle no deal in the current environment.
    The 30% is a real risk. Both might not feel they can talk themselves down from the ledge and go for short-term plaudits rather than look at the catastrophic effects 3-4 months hence.

    If the UK wants it’s fish catch up from 10-20% to 50% and the EU wants “no change” then I’d have thought the obvious compromise is to broker it at 35% with a 3-4 year transition and the catch quotas to be reviewed jointly by the UK-EU in 10 years. Allows both sides to claim a victory.

    Indeed, if that happens you can buy me a coconut for my foresight.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
  • And I thought campaigning in 3 member wards was stressful.

    https://twitter.com/J_Holliss/status/1313823910954184705
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    Of the last 6 UK MPs, 4 took power without a General Election.
    But every single one of them was chosen by MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which General Election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    If he’s going to gaslight he really needs to be a little more subtle about it.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    welshowl said:


    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    But tell me, given Dominic Cummings holds such an influential post, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?
    lol seriously?

    Vote the Tories out at the next election and he'll be gone forever.
    How am I supposed to do that considering that none of the main parties put themselves on the ballot paper here?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2020

    And I thought campaigning in 3 member wards was stressful.

    https://twitter.com/J_Holliss/status/1313823910954184705

    Polls have closed - count starts tomorrow 9am - around 2/3rds elected to vote by post. Guernsey Govt had a website which had Candidates/short manifestos/videos which let you create a "Yes/No/Maybe" list which helped a lot. I'll be interested to see if any of my choices get elected!

    https://election2020.gg/candidates/browse/
  • TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Don't know if this has been posted yet, but another noteworthy - pushing the landslide narrative territory - poll

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519939-trump-statistically-tied-with-biden-in-arizona-district-he-won-by-11-points

    When seen in conjunction with this, not a good morning for Trump:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics/trump-tax-returns-subpoena-ruling/index.html

    Never expected to be so happy to see a man kicked when he's down. I'd be wary of that poll though. Doesn't pass the smell test in various respects.
    Thanks, Peter. I take most polls with a grain of salt, even the "gold standards". What is noteworthy to me about this is that it is The Hill publishing it. They are certainly right of centre, albeit way more Establishment than Trump, so there is that.
    Yeah, but the problem isn't their political orientation. There's sample size for a start but more significant to me is that they are polling in an affluent area. This is exactly where you would expect to find Shy Trump Voter Syndrome. Nationally STVS is insignificant after netting out against its mirror image Shy Biden Voter Syndrome, but of course in a single County poll, it could be substantial.
    Think this poll is being prematurely poo-pooed, and maybe also visa versa

    First, sample size of over 500 is pretty good for a congressional district, certainly for determining presidential voting intention just weeks from EDay.

    Next, this is precisely the kind of suburban, high-rent, highly-educated, up-scale district where Democrats have been advancing for decades across the US, the way that rust-belts have been trending to the Republicans. Phoenix burbs is arriving a bit late to the party (like similar turf around Dallas) but trend is clear. AND have been SHARPLY impacted by Trumpsky's unique brand of Putinism.

    Finally, seems to be putting WAY too much weight on the rather slender thred of the Shy Trumpskite concept?

    Isn't the very existence of the notion a demonstration of Republican decline in their former suburban heartlands, including the cradle of Barry Goldwater and late-20th century American conservatism? A decline that has lasted decades (though the party has come late to places like AZ CD06) but which has been greatly accelerated during the last four years under You-Know-Who.

    Of course there is electoral and other evidence (such a the sign blitz Smithson the Younger noted) that rural areas beyond the Phoenix-Tucson metro areas remain (with the odd exception0 GOP and Trump strongholds, a phenomenon also found across USA from sea to seething sea.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Scott_xP said:
    Honestly I wouldn't mind if we don't see him for another 43 years.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
    By moving there and registering.

    Last time I checked even if I upped sticks and moved to Talinn ( lovely city btw), I couldn’t register to vote.
    Well you could vote in European Elections, so you would have a say in the European Commission, and you could still vote in UK General Elections, so you'd retain a say in the European Council President via your say in the UK.
    God it’s so Austria Hungary de nos jours. A marriage here, an Archduke there, a province here, an Archbishopric there, it’s just called commissions, and councils, and presidents of this or that.

    Bugger what the people ( actually peoples of course because there is no single people) want, as long as the whole show of summits and conferences and courts and expenses keeps rolling. Can’t stop moving forwards ‘cos we’ll topple off the bike.

    Still the carriages are plush, the food’s great, the scenery marvellous so we’ll all continue to exquisitely minuet and pretend we’re doing the democratic thing.
  • welshowl said:


    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    But tell me, given Dominic Cummings holds such an influential post, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?
    lol seriously?

    Vote the Tories out at the next election and he'll be gone forever.
    How am I supposed to do that considering that none of the main parties put themselves on the ballot paper here?
    Well then your vote will definitely go towards voting them out.

    You should be complaining that you can't vote to keep Dominic Cummings in his job.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited October 2020

    I see we’re getting into the choreographed Punchy and Judy stages of Brexit now.

    Clearly there’s a late night claret-soaked compromise still to be struck on fish but I’d say we’re at about a 70% chance of a deal now.

    99% imo.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.

    'Poor man', my arse - he deserves all the ignomy coming his way, and some.
    He'd hate someone saying "poor man" about him. Ridicule and condescension is all he deserves. I really don't feel sorry for him - for the record.
    I never believed you did :smile:
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Quite a few people have been speculating about what might happen in Texas. Worth remembering that Hubert Humphrey narrowly carried the state in 1968 despite losing nationally to Nixon.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Just as 26 counties of Ireland went from having a limited say in who was UK PM to none a hundred years ago.

    Didn’t do them any harm, and I doubt they’re clamouring to reverse that any time soon.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Yes it is an outrage because it is further removing the voters from the decision. Who would be UK PM was at stake in the UK election, who would be EC President was not.

    The last UK General Election that led to our PM being chosen was on 12/12/19.

    When was the Election that led to MPs across Europe being chosen, that led Michel being chosen?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Exeter has been propelled into the top 20 areas of England in terms of infection rates, with its rate jumping from 56.3 per 100,000 people to 262.5 in just seven days.

    Per local press. Guess which areas of the city are affected. Who would have thought that Russell Group status had so little protective effect?
  • My university friend from Hong Kong says the Chinese media are now citing the internal markets bill as an excuse for China to abrogate various treaties and agreements.

    The Brexiteers and Boris Johnson really have fucked up the people of Hong Kong some more.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
    By moving there and registering.

    Last time I checked even if I upped sticks and moved to Talinn ( lovely city btw), I couldn’t register to vote.
    Well you could vote in European Elections, so you would have a say in the European Commission, and you could still vote in UK General Elections, so you'd retain a say in the European Council President via your say in the UK.
    Actually that didn't hold this time because the actual candidates put forwards by the parties weren't chosen. Christine Lagarde wasn't on any ballot paper.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    Nigelb said:

    @Big_G very sorry to hear your news, and would like to add my best wishes to those already expressed.

    Yes, me too. Really sorry to hear your news @Big_G_NorthWales. Best wishes to you all.

    Newcastle Venue the Wylam Brewery closes their tap room venue. The "Palace of Arts" was a thriving arts / music / weddings / events venue with a popular brewery tap room. Now shutting for the duration and laying off their staff

    Some key lines from their statement:

    "Since lockdown in March we have put the preservation of jobs at the forefront of our mission with the furloughing, flexi-furloughing and retention of all staff.

    Furlough ends on 31st October 2020 and the new ‘job protection’ scheme is not fit for purpose for the hospitality industry."

    https://www.wylambrewery.co.uk/what-a-load-of-pants/

    Sunak needs to pay pubs to shut until March or let them trade fully and normally.
    A gazillion likes!

    HYUFD said:

    LD voters now more laissez-faire than not only Labour voters but Tory voters too it seems

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1313885499086565376?s=20

    Shame they didn't add to the quesionnaire

    'with money that comes from your taxes'

    Just like the welfare which pays for the unemployed.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Big_G very sorry to hear your news, and would like to add my best wishes to those already expressed.

    Yes, me too. Really sorry to hear your news @Big_G_NorthWales. Best wishes to you all.

    Newcastle Venue the Wylam Brewery closes their tap room venue. The "Palace of Arts" was a thriving arts / music / weddings / events venue with a popular brewery tap room. Now shutting for the duration and laying off their staff

    Some key lines from their statement:

    "Since lockdown in March we have put the preservation of jobs at the forefront of our mission with the furloughing, flexi-furloughing and retention of all staff.

    Furlough ends on 31st October 2020 and the new ‘job protection’ scheme is not fit for purpose for the hospitality industry."

    https://www.wylambrewery.co.uk/what-a-load-of-pants/

    Sunak needs to pay pubs to shut until March or let them trade fully and normally.
    A gazillion likes!

    HYUFD said:

    LD voters now more laissez-faire than not only Labour voters but Tory voters too it seems

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1313885499086565376?s=20

    Shame they didn't add to the quesionnaire

    'with money that comes from your taxes'

    Just like the welfare which pays for the unemployed.
    Thanks Cyclefree
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited October 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org

    It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?

    Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
    SAGE now wailing at the 'exposure' being given to this report by the media. Its minority position supported by 'cranks

    including....er......Professors from the Universities of Oxford, Stanford and Harvard.....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
    By moving there and registering.

    Last time I checked even if I upped sticks and moved to Talinn ( lovely city btw), I couldn’t register to vote.
    I'd be completely down with EU citizens having the right to vote in each other's national elections, but strangely Eurosceptics probably weren't as keen.
    Reddest of red lines.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    My university friend from Hong Kong says the Chinese media are now citing the internal markets bill as an excuse for China to abrogate various treaties and agreements.

    The Brexiteers and Boris Johnson really have fucked up the people of Hong Kong some more.

    Yes, because China was playing so nicely before.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Exeter has been propelled into the top 20 areas of England in terms of infection rates, with its rate jumping from 56.3 per 100,000 people to 262.5 in just seven days.

    Per local press. Guess which areas of the city are affected. Who would have thought that Russell Group status had so little protective effect?

    I was in Exeter city centre earlier this week. I'm not surprised.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Of course another layer is a big deal, the people in charge are another order of magnitude away from the people who actually get to vote.

    They are untouchable once in power, which led to us having to deal with Juncker for years the useless old drunk.
  • tlg86 said:

    My university friend from Hong Kong says the Chinese media are now citing the internal markets bill as an excuse for China to abrogate various treaties and agreements.

    The Brexiteers and Boris Johnson really have fucked up the people of Hong Kong some more.

    Yes, because China was playing so nicely before.
    But we've given them cover now to retrospectively change treaties, we've given them a precedent.

    The UK is now in stellar company.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Covid is really taking off in Wisconsin right now. Mostly in the redder parts of the state (blue parts were hit back before summer).

    Talk of the overflow hospitals being used soon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    IshmaelZ said:

    Exeter has been propelled into the top 20 areas of England in terms of infection rates, with its rate jumping from 56.3 per 100,000 people to 262.5 in just seven days.

    Per local press. Guess which areas of the city are affected. Who would have thought that Russell Group status had so little protective effect?

    I was in Exeter city centre earlier this week. I'm not surprised.
    Opening the universities is looking like a disaster. Interestingly, Sweden shut them in the first phase, but not schools.
  • Look at it...look at it...head desk thud thud thud...

    BBC News - Covid: Taskforce to look at virus testing for UK arrivals
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54452397
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594

    Look at it...look at it...head desk thud thud thud...

    BBC News - Covid: Taskforce to look at virus testing for UK arrivals
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54452397

    Excellent. About 7 months too late.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org

    It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?

    Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
    SAGE now wailing at the 'exposure' being given to this report by the media. Its minority position supported by 'cranks

    including....er......Professors from the Universities of Oxford, Stanford and Harvard.....
    Seriously? They are saying 'cranks'? Now we know Witless and Unbalanced have totally lost it. Science isn't entirely their own personal paradigm.

    Levitt has signed. He has a Nobel f*cking prize.

    This looks increasingly like an administration and attendants that has lost the plot totally and is drowning in panic and incompetence.


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org

    It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?

    Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
    SAGE now wailing at the 'exposure' being given to this report by the media. Its minority position supported by 'cranks

    including....er......Professors from the Universities of Oxford, Stanford and Harvard.....
    Your typography makes it impossible to discern your actual point, but if they are that authoritative why do they throw it open to literally anyone in the world with a functioning email address to sign the thing?

    And do you know any professors from any of those places? I think you would be a bit less starstruck if you did. I do.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Just as 26 counties of Ireland went from having a limited say in who was UK PM to none a hundred years ago.

    Didn’t do them any harm, and I doubt they’re clamouring to reverse that any time soon.
    Well exactly, but the point is that you see Ireland as a separate people and a sovereign state, but EU supporters don't see countries like that they just see different patches of land with anonymous and interchangeable people.

    That's why these arguments never get anywhere, they can't understand the attraction of the UK being able to rule itself. It's just another part of the EU, why does it matter?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Of course another layer is a big deal, the people in charge are another order of magnitude away from the people who actually get to vote.

    They are untouchable once in power, which led to us having to deal with Juncker for years the useless old drunk.
    At least he was the Spitzenkandidat. Even that seems to have gone west as a principle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.

    It's easy to get carried away, but some of these latest tweets do seem to have a more desperate tone than his usual utterings.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Scott_xP said:
    This is probably the most stupid tweet I've ever had the misfortune to read.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org

    It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?

    Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
    SAGE now wailing at the 'exposure' being given to this report by the media. Its minority position supported by 'cranks

    including....er......Professors from the Universities of Oxford, Stanford and Harvard.....
    Seriously? They are saying 'cranks'? Now we know Witless and Unbalanced have totally lost it. Science isn't entirely their own personal paradigm.

    Levitt has signed. He has a Nobel f*cking prize.

    This looks increasingly like an administration and attendants that has lost the plot totally and is drowning in panic and incompetence.


    To be fair they did not say cranks, stray apostrophe sorry.

    Somebody from SAGE moaned to labourlist its a dangerous minority opinion or something similar

    Dangerous to your career mate.

    But you can see where SAGE would like this to go next.

    Censorship of freedom of speech.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Look at it...look at it...head desk thud thud thud...

    BBC News - Covid: Taskforce to look at virus testing for UK arrivals
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54452397

    as part of plans to be considered by a new taskforce.

    Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said the taskforce will look at introducing a Covid-19 testing system for travellers to the UK.


    Is there no end to the incompetence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    And I thought campaigning in 3 member wards was stressful.

    https://twitter.com/J_Holliss/status/1313823910954184705

    Polls have closed - count starts tomorrow 9am - around 2/3rds elected to vote by post. Guernsey Govt had a website which had Candidates/short manifestos/videos which let you create a "Yes/No/Maybe" list which helped a lot. I'll be interested to see if any of my choices get elected!

    https://election2020.gg/candidates/browse/
    That appears to be doing something very silly in a very sensible way, which is laudable.
  • A cute 2020 conversation . . .

    My eldest daughter (six) has her first wobbly tooth, she's been looking forward to this most of her friends have already lost a tooth so she is waiting for her turn. As we were putting her to bed tonight she said that when she loses her tooth she thinks that 'because of coronavirus the Tooth Fairy will wear a mask when she comes to collect the tooth and give her a coin'.
  • Look at it...look at it...head desk thud thud thud...

    BBC News - Covid: Taskforce to look at virus testing for UK arrivals
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54452397

    as part of plans to be considered by a new taskforce.

    Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said the taskforce will look at introducing a Covid-19 testing system for travellers to the UK.


    Is there no end to the incompetence?
    Probably be in place summer 2022.....
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    I still didn't understand, other than on pure number of exams, why National 5 wasn't doable but Higher and Advanced Higher exams was.

    The only thing I could come to in my head was that in relative comparison noone really cares about National 5 but Higher and Advanced Higher is needed for university entrance criteria?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Yep. This one has not been thought through. Next step: ban sale of all alcohol.

    Pass me the Buckfast...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Of course another layer is a big deal, the people in charge are another order of magnitude away from the people who actually get to vote.

    They are untouchable once in power, which led to us having to deal with Juncker for years the useless old drunk.
    In charge of what though? Who is it making the kind of decisions that affect people's daily lives on things like Covid?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.

    You do have to wonder if the experimental drugs he has been given are addling his mind

    He'll be going the full QAnon by election day at this rate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Alistair said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    REKT

    I am rolling rip disbelieve. In a week Trump will recover
    Just imagine if the polls are as out as they were in 2012.

    Trump would be the Orange Walter Mondale.
    Trump out at 3 tonight on Betfair.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    Boris Johnson does have a sense of humour.

    https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1313834930330361864
  • Alistair said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    REKT

    I am rolling rip disbelieve. In a week Trump will recover
    Just imagine if the polls are as out as they were in 2012.

    Trump would be the Orange Walter Mondale.
    Trump out at 3 tonight on Betfair.
    Still value to lay.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This is probably the most stupid tweet I've ever had the misfortune to read.
    You've never read any Trump or Paul Joseph Watson tweets?

    Or Deanna Lorraine?

    https://twitter.com/deanna4congress/status/1309553515925209089
  • kle4 said:

    And I thought campaigning in 3 member wards was stressful.

    https://twitter.com/J_Holliss/status/1313823910954184705

    Polls have closed - count starts tomorrow 9am - around 2/3rds elected to vote by post. Guernsey Govt had a website which had Candidates/short manifestos/videos which let you create a "Yes/No/Maybe" list which helped a lot. I'll be interested to see if any of my choices get elected!

    https://election2020.gg/candidates/browse/
    That appears to be doing something very silly in a very sensible way, which is laudable.
    I'm fascinated by this election, I can't wait for the results.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    My university friend from Hong Kong says the Chinese media are now citing the internal markets bill as an excuse for China to abrogate various treaties and agreements.

    The Brexiteers and Boris Johnson really have fucked up the people of Hong Kong some more.

    Your university friend surely understands what a pretext is, and that another would have been found?
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Of course another layer is a big deal, the people in charge are another order of magnitude away from the people who actually get to vote.

    They are untouchable once in power, which led to us having to deal with Juncker for years the useless old drunk.
    In charge of what though? Who is it making the kind of decisions that affect people's daily lives on things like Covid?
    So the argument has gone from "it's a completely democratic organisation" to "they don't do anything useful anyway so why does it matter if it's democratic or not?".
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    We vote for the MPs at the General Election, the MPs choose the PM. So the PM is chosen two degrees of separation from the voters at the General Election.

    How separated from the voters is Michel? Which General Election leads to him?
    Three layers, isn't it (voters vote for MPs, who vote for PMs, who vote for a EuroCouncil President)? So it's an extra layer. Firstly, that's hardly a democratic outrage, is it? Second, Europe could fix that by strengthening the Euro Parliament relative to the Euro Council.

    But the key point is still that the UK has gone from some input into who the ECP is to having none.
    Just as 26 counties of Ireland went from having a limited say in who was UK PM to none a hundred years ago.

    Didn’t do them any harm, and I doubt they’re clamouring to reverse that any time soon.
    Well exactly, but the point is that you see Ireland as a separate people and a sovereign state, but EU supporters don't see countries like that they just see different patches of land with anonymous and interchangeable people.

    That's why these arguments never get anywhere, they can't understand the attraction of the UK being able to rule itself. It's just another part of the EU, why does it matter?
    Yes I fear you’re right.

    I’m glad we’re out and the bun fight is nearing the end of its main stages (hopefully calmer times will lie before us - we all need that ), for I fear what happens when peoples realise there’s no way out because the mechanisms have been removed one by one from them. Maybe they’ll love it or at least accept it and I’m wrong, but I fear they won’t, and the lack of responsive democracy will grate hugely. It won’t be pretty and that is to be feared and regretted.

    People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.

    The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.
  • kle4 said:

    My university friend from Hong Kong says the Chinese media are now citing the internal markets bill as an excuse for China to abrogate various treaties and agreements.

    The Brexiteers and Boris Johnson really have fucked up the people of Hong Kong some more.

    Your university friend surely understands what a pretext is, and that another would have been found?
    He does, but it pains him it is further ways for China to destroy the place he called home.
  • Alistair said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    REKT

    I am rolling rip disbelieve. In a week Trump will recover
    Just imagine if the polls are as out as they were in 2012.

    Trump would be the Orange Walter Mondale.
    Trump out at 3 tonight on Betfair.
    I thought he was in quarantine
  • Eventually we will get its not a lockdown lockdown, just of how many weeks we mess about.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    welshowl said:

    People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.

    The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.

    Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour, has a totally unelected upper house and a hereditary head of state...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    welshowl said:

    People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.

    The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.

    Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour.
    It was 700 years ago, I think most will have gotten over it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    edited October 2020

    I see we’re getting into the choreographed Punchy and Judy stages of Brexit now.

    Clearly there’s a late night claret-soaked compromise still to be struck on fish but I’d say we’re at about a 70% chance of a deal now.

    Ever the optimist, Mr. Bond.
    A deal is a certainty. It has to be at the last minute to protect Boris and the government from the 'I wouldn't do it that way if I were you' crowd, all explaining after the deal how to do it better. To ensure the deal is at the 59th minute of the 11th hour means that all the focus is on the deal and getting on with it, and the critics on fishing and sell outs and whatever else get swamped by the occasion.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    MaxPB said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
    By moving there and registering.

    Last time I checked even if I upped sticks and moved to Talinn ( lovely city btw), I couldn’t register to vote.
    Well you could vote in European Elections, so you would have a say in the European Commission, and you could still vote in UK General Elections, so you'd retain a say in the European Council President via your say in the UK.
    Actually that didn't hold this time because the actual candidates put forwards by the parties weren't chosen. Christine Lagarde wasn't on any ballot paper.
    Why are we arguing about this? We're not a member any more so it doesn't matter. We certainly have a lot less say about any of this now than we did before. In fact I would go as far as to say that it's no longer any of our business how anything is decided in the EU. I thought the one positive thing about Brexit was that Brexiteers would finally STFU about the EU, but we're not even granted that smallest of mercies.
    Also what does Christine Lagarde have to do with any of this?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.

    The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.

    Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour, has a totally unelected upper house and a hereditary head of state...
    Bless.
  • kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.

    The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.

    Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour.
    It was 700 years ago, I think most will have gotten over it.
    I bet Scott is still posting his anti Boris Brexit tweets in 700 years
  • kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.

    The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.

    Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour.
    It was 700 years ago, I think most will have gotten over it.
    Some of us still aren't over the French abrogating the Treaty of Troyes and that was nearly 600 years ago.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Alistair said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    REKT

    I am rolling rip disbelieve. In a week Trump will recover
    Just imagine if the polls are as out as they were in 2012.

    Trump would be the Orange Walter Mondale.
    Trump out at 3 tonight on Betfair.
    I thought he was in quarantine
    Very good!


  • Yep. This one has not been thought through. Next step: ban sale of all alcohol.

    Pass me the Buckfast...
    Or raise the price of alcohol to that of Sweden.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited October 2020
    So what's the logic behind closing bars and restaurants but keeping open gyms and cinemas?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Scott_xP said:
    I still didn't understand, other than on pure number of exams, why National 5 wasn't doable but Higher and Advanced Higher exams was.

    The only thing I could come to in my head was that in relative comparison noone really cares about National 5 but Higher and Advanced Higher is needed for university entrance criteria?
    Also, you must remember following various botched reforms of both systems over the last few years, nobody can take GCSEs and National 5s seriously any more. Nobody understands the marking criteria, nobody understands the grades and nobody therefore is bothered about the results.

    I’m not saying the real world situation is much better for Highers or A-levels, but people do take them more seriously because they draw false equivalence to predecessor qualifications.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,106
    edited October 2020

    So what's the logic behind closing bars and restaurants but keeping open gyms and cinemas?

    In terms of Scotland announcement, I am sure I heard on R5 (so that probably got it wrong) that gyms are restricted to 1 on 1 PT.

    But in general, gyms being open, is just mental. Enclosed space, heavy breathing, air-con, COVID says woooohooo.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719

    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org

    It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?

    Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
    There's a Great Barrington in Massachusetts.

    Edit - 'Kin hell, I spelled Massachusetts correctly for the first time.
    The second time too, to be pedantic...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.

    The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.

    Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour.
    It was 700 years ago, I think most will have gotten over it.
    Have you ever actually read a translation of the Welsh National Anthem?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    So what's the logic behind closing bars and restaurants but keeping open gyms and cinemas?

    You are looking for logic in the mind of an MSP?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1313933549486178306

    twitter.com/BareReality/status/1306897564885831680

    Sigh. Bleak.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    A cute 2020 conversation . . .

    My eldest daughter (six) has her first wobbly tooth, she's been looking forward to this most of her friends have already lost a tooth so she is waiting for her turn. As we were putting her to bed tonight she said that when she loses her tooth she thinks that 'because of coronavirus the Tooth Fairy will wear a mask when she comes to collect the tooth and give her a coin'.

    That made me smile.

    At six your daughter is no doubt going to remember the Coronavirus of 2020 very well. In a 80 or 90 years time she'll probably be in demand from documentary makers keen for eye-witness accounts.
  • So what's the logic behind closing bars and restaurants but keeping open gyms and cinemas?

    Logic?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1313933549486178306

    twitter.com/BareReality/status/1306897564885831680

    Sigh. Bleak.
    FFS!

    And then what ......?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    He’s more out of touch than...

    ...you know what? I can’t actually think of a parallel.

    Edit - got one. Comical Ali.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
This discussion has been closed.