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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19 – politicalbetting

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Comments

  • welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,412

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    I can’t vote to fire my government, considering my MP is already a Labour MP.
    I have repeatedly voted to fire my MP, but it hasn't happened.
    As my seat is solid Tory and didn't even flip in 1997.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,412

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    Blimey.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so what - just get the deal

    It's never going to end!!

    It will but I am not predicting when
    You're the only Tory I know of that seems to actually accept Johnson will end up capitulating, I can respect you for that POV
    Whether he capitulates or not I just want a deal
    He can capitulate on state aid, which was not in the winning Tory manifesto, he cannot capitulate on reclaiming our fishing waters, which was in the Tory manifesto
    He can, and he probably will. And then you'll write a long and interesting post on why this was absolutely the right thing to do all along and this is completely compliant with the manifesto, while most of us are glad that the economy isn't being trashed over bloody fishermen.
    It`s not about fisherman, or at least not predominately so. For leavers (I`m not in their number) it is about the principle of access to our waters. A totemic sovereignty issue to do with borders. It is no different to foreigners taking coal from a UK coalmine. If foreign countries want access to the natural resources from our sea, or the natural resources from our land, they must pay bigly.

    I sense that if Johnson gives this away he will be buggered Trump-toast style.

    I have posted this before, but a fishing betrayal, on top of everything else Johnson has done in the last seven months, would give Farage the momentum he needs to re-launch.
    He spends half his life at sea on a boat these days so Fish is the perfect issue for him. He could film illegal migrants and encroaching Belgian trawlers at the same time.
    I suppose it might be too much to ask the government to try to do something about illegal migrants instead.
    Well considering “illegal migrants” are not actually a big problem in the grand scheme of things, yes it is “too much to ask”. It’s only a big problem in the mind of frothers.

    But regardless I’m in favour of the Swiss model as previously detailed by @rcs1000. I.e. If an illegal migrant dobs in an employer employing migrants illegally, they are given an amnesty. Thus almost zero illegal immigration.
    Well it's generally considered that people committing crimes is a problem.

    The Swiss seem to be the only country in the West to have their heads screwed on when it comes to immigration.
    I didn’t say it wasn’t a problem though. I said it wasn’t a big problem.
  • kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so what - just get the deal

    It's never going to end!!

    It will but I am not predicting when
    You're the only Tory I know of that seems to actually accept Johnson will end up capitulating, I can respect you for that POV
    Whether he capitulates or not I just want a deal
    He can capitulate on state aid, which was not in the winning Tory manifesto, he cannot capitulate on reclaiming our fishing waters, which was in the Tory manifesto
    He can, and he probably will. And then you'll write a long and interesting post on why this was absolutely the right thing to do all along and this is completely compliant with the manifesto, while most of us are glad that the economy isn't being trashed over bloody fishermen.
    It`s not about fisherman, or at least not predominately so. For leavers (I`m not in their number) it is about the principle of access to our waters. A totemic sovereignty issue to do with borders. It is no different to foreigners taking coal from a UK coalmine. If foreign countries want access to the natural resources from our sea, or the natural resources from our land, they must pay bigly.

    I sense that if Johnson gives this away he will be buggered Trump-toast style.

    I have posted this before, but a fishing betrayal, on top of everything else Johnson has done in the last seven months, would give Farage the momentum he needs to re-launch.

    Maybe, although one wonders how many times Farage can pull off his 'I'm in the game, I'm out of it, I'm in it again' routine. He's successfully influence the Tories multiple times by doing so, and helped draw on some former Labour voters too, but he seems like he wants to be a pressure group more than a party, and at some point the relaunches seem silly.
    Nigel Farage is currently in vogue as a Trump-allied pundit in America. After fireworks night, he may have more time on his hands to take a closer look at Brexit progress.
  • welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    I can’t vote to fire my government, considering my MP is already a Labour MP.
    Yes you can.

    You just need enough of your fellow countrymen to agree with you. Just because you didn't win didn't mean you couldn't vote.
    You’re talking about something different.

    Me and my fellow constituents cannot “vote out the government” because we never voted for the government.

    I’m not saying anything about the legitimacy of that, nor am I complaining about it. I’m merely highlighting a fact.
    You did vote though, you took part in the national election. Just because you lost nationally doesn't mean you didn't vote and couldn't win next time.

    Saying you didn't vote just is like saying Newcastle FC didn't play any football just because they didn't win the Premier League.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    And so what - just get the deal

    It's never going to end!!

    It will but I am not predicting when
    You're the only Tory I know of that seems to actually accept Johnson will end up capitulating, I can respect you for that POV
    Whether he capitulates or not I just want a deal
    He can capitulate on state aid, which was not in the winning Tory manifesto, he cannot capitulate on reclaiming our fishing waters, which was in the Tory manifesto
    He can, and he probably will. And then you'll write a long and interesting post on why this was absolutely the right thing to do all along and this is completely compliant with the manifesto, while most of us are glad that the economy isn't being trashed over bloody fishermen.
    It`s not about fisherman, or at least not predominately so. For leavers (I`m not in their number) it is about the principle of access to our waters. A totemic sovereignty issue to do with borders. It is no different to foreigners taking coal from a UK coalmine. If foreign countries want access to the natural resources from our sea, or the natural resources from our land, they must pay bigly.

    I sense that if Johnson gives this away he will be buggered Trump-toast style.

    I have posted this before, but a fishing betrayal, on top of everything else Johnson has done in the last seven months, would give Farage the momentum he needs to re-launch.
    He spends half his life at sea on a boat these days so Fish is the perfect issue for him. He could film illegal migrants and encroaching Belgian trawlers at the same time.
    I suppose it might be too much to ask the government to try to do something about illegal migrants instead.
    Well considering “illegal migrants” are not actually a big problem in the grand scheme of things, yes it is “too much to ask”. It’s only a big problem in the mind of frothers.

    But regardless I’m in favour of the Swiss model as previously detailed by @rcs1000. I.e. If an illegal migrant dobs in an employer employing migrants illegally, they are given an amnesty. Thus almost zero illegal immigration.
    Well it's generally considered that people committing crimes is a problem.

    The Swiss seem to be the only country in the West to have their heads screwed on when it comes to immigration.
    You should hear what some call them - the most interesting one was "undemocratic". Yes, Switzerland.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Disagree, obviously.

    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    We may wish to note that his office was created in its current form by the Lisbon Treaty, you know the one Blair and Brown we’re going to give us a vote on till they saw they’d go down in flames with the voters so did it anyway,

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    I can’t vote to fire my government, considering my MP is already a Labour MP.
    Yes you can.

    You just need enough of your fellow countrymen to agree with you. Just because you didn't win didn't mean you couldn't vote.
    You’re talking about something different.

    Me and my fellow constituents cannot “vote out the government” because we never voted for the government.

    I’m not saying anything about the legitimacy of that, nor am I complaining about it. I’m merely highlighting a fact.
    You did vote though, you took part in the national election. Just because you lost nationally doesn't mean you didn't vote and couldn't win next time.

    Saying you didn't vote just is like saying Newcastle FC didn't play any football just because they didn't win the Premier League.
    I didn’t say I didn’t vote. Nor did I say I didn’t take part in a national election.

    Again, you’re talking about something else.

    I cannot contribute towards “firing the government” because my constituency never voted for the government.

    It’s a subtle point but it is true. I cannot influence the next election. It is completely out of mine and my constituency's hands.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    MaxPB said:

    Scotland cancelled exams again? Kids are being seriously let down now, I bet the useless Gavin Williamson will blindly follow as well.

    It is so disappointing isn't it. I don't see why we can't manage it if other European countries can...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    edited October 2020
    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.
  • kinabalu said:

    sarissa said:

    MaxPB said:

    My word.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1313784259883171842

    Given that it is Peston I guess it isn't going to happen?

    Absolutely mental.
    Total lunacy if the government does that

    The evidence appears to be that spread in pubs and restaurants is relatively low
    Only 3% of infections if I recall correctly – of course, the authoritarians in the government like it because it makes them look strong and anti-fun.
    Over 20% of recent positive cases in Scotland reported exposure in hospitality venues - more than any other situation (even students mixing).
    A government responding to facts? Golly.
    Just watching the news - Glasgow looks rather grand and substantial. The bit they showed did anyway.
    It is, though the slightly glib slogan 'People make Glasgow' is the truth of it.
    A good one to remember when some bevvied psycho is roaring 'You tong tae me, big man?' in the Gallowgate.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    The state polling showing signs of following the national polling this evening. I suspect this will be Biden’s high watermark, I can’t see things getting much worse for Trumpton in the three weeks that remain.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Quinnipiac has had some of the best polls for Biden in this cycle and seems to have a bias towards him but even if you take that into account the Florida poll could confirm recent trends with over 65s moving towards Biden and that would be more pronounced in that state given its higher than average over 65s population .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,412
    Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    Or the meds.
    Probably both.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2020
    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Specifically the UK needs to pay attention to the pontifications of Charles Michel because he has agency now over things that we want. Whereas he could be safely ignored while we were still members.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719
    edited October 2020
    nichomar said:

    When I was in hospital having visitors was no problem at all.

    They had to wear a mask, and only 1 person on each ward could have 1 visitor at any one time. It worked fairly well.

    Surely you mean each bay
    No en-suite rooms in the UK then?
    Wards are typically 4 times six bedded bays and 6 siderooms with ensuite. The latter are allocated to patients in need of isolation for either infection or protection from infection.
  • welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Disagree, obviously.

    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    We may wish to note that his office was created in its current form by the Lisbon Treaty, you know the one Blair and Brown we’re going to give us a vote on till they saw they’d go down in flames with the voters so did it anyway,

    And Cameron. People always forget Cameron pledged and then dropped a Lisbon referendum. But then Lisbon had already been downgraded after French and Dutch referenda rejections.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited October 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:
    Sort it out America. Upgrade your democracy.
    Raising taxes to pay for things like this is very unpopular, even with most Democrat supporters.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,412
    nico679 said:

    Quinnipiac has had some of the best polls for Biden in this cycle and seems to have a bias towards him but even if you take that into account the Florida poll could confirm recent trends with over 65s moving towards Biden and that would be more pronounced in that state given its higher than average over 65s population .

    Does anyone know WHY seniors are moving in Biden's direction? Seems counter intuitive. Do they even do that level of polling?
    Or has the President having Covid made it all too real rather than summat that happens to others?
  • And so what - just get the deal

    It's never going to end!!

    It will but I am not predicting when
    You're the only Tory I know of that seems to actually accept Johnson will end up capitulating, I can respect you for that POV

    The only way there is any kind of deal is if Sections 41 to 45 of the Internal Market Bill are entirely redrafted or withdrawn. That will be Brussels dictating to the UK government what should and should not be in internal UK legislation. If it happens, the ERG will go berserk, as will the DUP. And so the endless war will continue.

    You still don't seem to understand the significance of the Internal Market Bill.

    Those clauses are only there for if there's a No Deal scenario. If there's a deal then those sections can be repealed because they would become redundant.

    There is no need to remove them. They would just not be used. If they are removed it will only be because the EU has told us to do it if we want a deal.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Disagree, obviously.

    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    We may wish to note that his office was created in its current form by the Lisbon Treaty, you know the one Blair and Brown we’re going to give us a vote on till they saw they’d go down in flames with the voters so did it anyway,

    And Cameron. People always forget Cameron pledged and then dropped a Lisbon referendum. But then Lisbon had already been downgraded after French and Dutch referenda rejections.
    Cameron could do nothing about it at all till he won a majority in 2015. He had under 200 seats while Brown was skulking about signing Lisbon in the dead of night and clearly the Lin Dems would’ve had a fit of the vapours 2010-15.

    Cameron woefully underestimated the issue but largely he was the one holding the parcel when the music of many many years standing stopped.
  • welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    I can’t vote to fire my government, considering my MP is already a Labour MP.
    Yes you can.

    You just need enough of your fellow countrymen to agree with you. Just because you didn't win didn't mean you couldn't vote.
    You’re talking about something different.

    Me and my fellow constituents cannot “vote out the government” because we never voted for the government.

    I’m not saying anything about the legitimacy of that, nor am I complaining about it. I’m merely highlighting a fact.
    You did vote though, you took part in the national election. Just because you lost nationally doesn't mean you didn't vote and couldn't win next time.

    Saying you didn't vote just is like saying Newcastle FC didn't play any football just because they didn't win the Premier League.
    I didn’t say I didn’t vote. Nor did I say I didn’t take part in a national election.

    Again, you’re talking about something else.

    I cannot contribute towards “firing the government” because my constituency never voted for the government.

    It’s a subtle point but it is true. I cannot influence the next election. It is completely out of mine and my constituency's hands.
    Its not completely out of your and your constituency's hands. Just because you won your seat last time is no guarantee you will win it again next time. You can influence the next election by voting for your party next time, at the start of every election every party has zero seats and zero votes.

    For the last three seasons since Newcastle returned to the Premier League, you have always won the Newcastle v Southampton game. Your claiming your constituency doesn't matter just because you won it last time is like saying the Newcastle v Southampton game doesn't matter this season just because you won it last time and have won it repeatedly. It isn't true, one MP/3 points are up for grabs at the start of the next election and until anyone votes there is no guarantee who will win it.
  • Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.

    You do have to wonder if the experimental drugs he has been given are addling his mind

  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Specifically the UK needs to pay attention to the pontifications of Charles Michel because he has agency now over things that we want. Whereas he could be safely ignored while we were still members.
    It's the plot of a million heist stories;
    You offer the victim something for nothing (in this case, sovereignty, fish and £350 million a week with no downsides), then give them nothing for something. The only remaining question is what we're all going to pay for our nothing.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Quinnipiac has had some of the best polls for Biden in this cycle and seems to have a bias towards him but even if you take that into account the Florida poll could confirm recent trends with over 65s moving towards Biden and that would be more pronounced in that state given its higher than average over 65s population .

    Does anyone know WHY seniors are moving in Biden's direction? Seems counter intuitive. Do they even do that level of polling?
    Or has the President having Covid made it all too real rather than summat that happens to others?
    Seniors have been most effected by Covid and Trumps attitude is clearly turning off many that might have voted for him in 2016.

    I think his antics when he went back to the WH were the final straw for some . Biden also isn’t the polarizing figure that Hillary Clinton was . He looks like the safe no drama choice . Maybe people have just had enough of the reality tv show .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    LD voters now more laissez-faire than not only Labour voters but Tory voters too it seems

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1313885499086565376?s=20

    Shame they didn't add to the quesionnaire

    'with money that comes from your taxes'

    Strange days when you find the LDs the most Thatcherite in attitude. I suppose though that very few LDs have any direct contact with people suffering economically from all this.

    It is not that surprising, most of the Social Democrats are now voting Starmer Labour and the Tory vote is increasingly working class thanks to the Red Wall, so the current LD vote under Ed Davey is mainly as you suggest wealthy classical Liberals and ex Tory Remainers from the Home counties and south west London
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    I can’t vote to fire my government, considering my MP is already a Labour MP.
    Yes you can.

    You just need enough of your fellow countrymen to agree with you. Just because you didn't win didn't mean you couldn't vote.
    You’re talking about something different.

    Me and my fellow constituents cannot “vote out the government” because we never voted for the government.

    I’m not saying anything about the legitimacy of that, nor am I complaining about it. I’m merely highlighting a fact.
    You did vote though, you took part in the national election. Just because you lost nationally doesn't mean you didn't vote and couldn't win next time.

    Saying you didn't vote just is like saying Newcastle FC didn't play any football just because they didn't win the Premier League.
    I didn’t say I didn’t vote. Nor did I say I didn’t take part in a national election.

    Again, you’re talking about something else.

    I cannot contribute towards “firing the government” because my constituency never voted for the government.

    It’s a subtle point but it is true. I cannot influence the next election. It is completely out of mine and my constituency's hands.
    Its not completely out of your and your constituency's hands. Just because you won your seat last time is no guarantee you will win it again next time. You can influence the next election by voting for your party next time, at the start of every election every party has zero seats and zero votes.

    For the last three seasons since Newcastle returned to the Premier League, you have always won the Newcastle v Southampton game. Your claiming your constituency doesn't matter just because you won it last time is like saying the Newcastle v Southampton game doesn't matter this season just because you won it last time and have won it repeatedly. It isn't true, one MP/3 points are up for grabs at the start of the next election and until anyone votes there is no guarantee who will win it.
    My constituency cannot “vote to kick out the government” because we never voted for the government in the first place. That’s just a fact.

    Your football example is rubbish because it’s entirely in Newcastle’s hands. If Newcastle win all their games, they win. Whereas in an election, I can simply influence one match, and one match only.

    Anyway I have nothing more to say on the matter - it was a mere example of how the “I can vote to kick out our leaders but can’t kick out “ argument is rubbish because it isn’t “I”. Maybe it’s “we” but it certainly isn’t “I”.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Specifically the UK needs to pay attention to the pontifications of Charles Michel because he has agency now over things that we want. Whereas he could be safely ignored while we were still members.
    Safely ignore it...apart from having to pay £10bn a year to be in it.
  • And so what - just get the deal

    It's never going to end!!

    It will but I am not predicting when
    You're the only Tory I know of that seems to actually accept Johnson will end up capitulating, I can respect you for that POV

    The only way there is any kind of deal is if Sections 41 to 45 of the Internal Market Bill are entirely redrafted or withdrawn. That will be Brussels dictating to the UK government what should and should not be in internal UK legislation. If it happens, the ERG will go berserk, as will the DUP. And so the endless war will continue.

    You still don't seem to understand the significance of the Internal Market Bill.

    Those clauses are only there for if there's a No Deal scenario. If there's a deal then those sections can be repealed because they would become redundant.

    There is no need to remove them. They would just not be used. If they are removed it will only be because the EU has told us to do it if we want a deal.

    And because we agreed as a compromise as part of a negotiation. It would be our decision to remove them - and they would be redundant if there's a deal, the provisions are only required if there isn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    No logical connection at all, you can still have an unelected House of Lords even if Scotland went independent
  • And so what - just get the deal

    It's never going to end!!

    It will but I am not predicting when
    You're the only Tory I know of that seems to actually accept Johnson will end up capitulating, I can respect you for that POV

    The only way there is any kind of deal is if Sections 41 to 45 of the Internal Market Bill are entirely redrafted or withdrawn. That will be Brussels dictating to the UK government what should and should not be in internal UK legislation. If it happens, the ERG will go berserk, as will the DUP. And so the endless war will continue.

    You still don't seem to understand the significance of the Internal Market Bill.

    Those clauses are only there for if there's a No Deal scenario. If there's a deal then those sections can be repealed because they would become redundant.

    There is no need to remove them. They would just not be used. If they are removed it will only be because the EU has told us to do it if we want a deal.

    And because we agreed as a compromise as part of a negotiation. It would be our decision to remove them - and they would be redundant if there's a deal, the provisions are only required if there isn't.

    Good luck with that with the ERG!

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427
    It has recently been stated as a fact that Biden is not doing as well in the State polls as in the National polls. However, this seemed to be based on little more than the examination of individual state and national polls, rather than an analysis in the aggregate. Therefore, I decided to look at this to see whether there was a systematic difference.

    To do so I looked at the 538 polling averages for each state (note there is not a 538 polling average for DC, NE, RI, SD or WY) and at the national level. I calculated the swing for each state compared to the 2016 result, and the difference between the state swing and the national swing. I could then plot this difference against Clinton's lead for each state. This is the attached plot.

    I would say that the hypothesis is disproved. There are many states where the polling average implies a greater swing than the national swing, and many where it is less. There is a suggestion that the swing to Biden is greatest in states lost by Clinton by the widest margins, and least in those Clinton won comfortably. This would be consistent with the idea of Biden as a much less polarising figure than Clinton who has a greater chance of unifying the country to some extent (though this would seem to be an obvious observation).


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    No logical connection at all, you can still have an unelected House of Lords even if Scotland went independent
    No one would ever “choose” to have an unelected House of Lords.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    welshowl said:


    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    But tell me, given Dominic Cummings holds such an influential post, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    HYUFD said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    No logical connection at all, you can still have an unelected House of Lords even if Scotland went independent
    Yes but it wouldn't have any say over Scotland.
  • BBC News - Coronavirus: Nottinghamshire residents told not to mix indoors
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54439706
  • BBC News - Coronavirus: New restrictions for England likely on Monday
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457377
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    dixiedean said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    I can’t vote to fire my government, considering my MP is already a Labour MP.
    I have repeatedly voted to fire my MP, but it hasn't happened.
    As my seat is solid Tory and didn't even flip in 1997.
    I've only voted once for a winning candidate, and that was my first vote when I was 18. I think there have been five or six general elections since then.
  • Andrew Neil seems to have misread the report. It says CA did not illegally misuse data, not that said data was not used to influence the Brexit vote, and indeed the ICO does note that: This further work confirms my earlier conclusion that there are systemic vulnerabilities in our democratic systems. Since the major beneficiaries are (excluding Russia) our main political parties, I doubt anything will be done to regulate such use.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
  • welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    I can’t vote to fire my government, considering my MP is already a Labour MP.
    Yes you can.

    You just need enough of your fellow countrymen to agree with you. Just because you didn't win didn't mean you couldn't vote.
    You’re talking about something different.

    Me and my fellow constituents cannot “vote out the government” because we never voted for the government.

    I’m not saying anything about the legitimacy of that, nor am I complaining about it. I’m merely highlighting a fact.
    You did vote though, you took part in the national election. Just because you lost nationally doesn't mean you didn't vote and couldn't win next time.

    Saying you didn't vote just is like saying Newcastle FC didn't play any football just because they didn't win the Premier League.
    I didn’t say I didn’t vote. Nor did I say I didn’t take part in a national election.

    Again, you’re talking about something else.

    I cannot contribute towards “firing the government” because my constituency never voted for the government.

    It’s a subtle point but it is true. I cannot influence the next election. It is completely out of mine and my constituency's hands.
    Its not completely out of your and your constituency's hands. Just because you won your seat last time is no guarantee you will win it again next time. You can influence the next election by voting for your party next time, at the start of every election every party has zero seats and zero votes.

    For the last three seasons since Newcastle returned to the Premier League, you have always won the Newcastle v Southampton game. Your claiming your constituency doesn't matter just because you won it last time is like saying the Newcastle v Southampton game doesn't matter this season just because you won it last time and have won it repeatedly. It isn't true, one MP/3 points are up for grabs at the start of the next election and until anyone votes there is no guarantee who will win it.
    My constituency cannot “vote to kick out the government” because we never voted for the government in the first place. That’s just a fact.

    Your football example is rubbish because it’s entirely in Newcastle’s hands. If Newcastle win all their games, they win. Whereas in an election, I can simply influence one match, and one match only.

    Anyway I have nothing more to say on the matter - it was a mere example of how the “I can vote to kick out our leaders but can’t kick out “ argument is rubbish because it isn’t “I”. Maybe it’s “we” but it certainly isn’t “I”.
    Your constituency can contribute to vote to kick out the government, if your party wins more constituencies (including yours) than the government's party does then you win.

    The football example is not rubbish because Newcastle is a club taking part in the matches. Newcastle can win or lose. Newcastle is not a party at the election, Labour is the party you supported there. If Labour win all their constituencies then they win.

    The parties are the equivalent of the clubs and every constituency is the equivalent of a match. So Labour v Tories (and everyone else) in your constituency is every bit as meaningful as Newcastle v Southampton as a specific fixture.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    Blimey.
    Biden is banking his votes right now too.
    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    Someone has been to the future and seen the results of the VP debate

    https://twitter.com/BCDreyer/status/1313871249668440067?s=19

    What he means is that Kamala will be found guilty of being a woman in politics.
    I think Dan Quayle proved VP debates don't matter too much.
  • And so what - just get the deal

    It's never going to end!!

    It will but I am not predicting when
    You're the only Tory I know of that seems to actually accept Johnson will end up capitulating, I can respect you for that POV

    The only way there is any kind of deal is if Sections 41 to 45 of the Internal Market Bill are entirely redrafted or withdrawn. That will be Brussels dictating to the UK government what should and should not be in internal UK legislation. If it happens, the ERG will go berserk, as will the DUP. And so the endless war will continue.

    You still don't seem to understand the significance of the Internal Market Bill.

    Those clauses are only there for if there's a No Deal scenario. If there's a deal then those sections can be repealed because they would become redundant.

    There is no need to remove them. They would just not be used. If they are removed it will only be because the EU has told us to do it if we want a deal.

    And because we agreed as a compromise as part of a negotiation. It would be our decision to remove them - and they would be redundant if there's a deal, the provisions are only required if there isn't.

    Good luck with that with the ERG!

    I couldn't care less about them. And if we get a deal then ratifying it should be a confidence matter, anyone who rebels on that vote should face the same fate as Ken Clarke etc did last time.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    But it’s not. Get 325 MP’s elected with a mandate to abolish HoL, hey presto.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2020

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Specifically the UK needs to pay attention to the pontifications of Charles Michel because he has agency now over things that we want. Whereas he could be safely ignored while we were still members.
    Safely ignore it...apart from having to pay £10bn a year to be in it.
    My premise does depend on the UK at some point deciding that it wants a deal on something with the EU and that no agreement with the EU on anything ever is an unsustainable situation. At which point we need to start paying attention to the likes of Charles Michel because he and many other people have a say that is entirely at their whim.

    Clearly you don't share that premise but I can see Boris Johnson is struggling here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    BBC News - Coronavirus: New restrictions for England likely on Monday
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457377

    Lets face it, its complete chaos.

    Soon its going to be chaos with no money and mass unemployment.

    labour reckons a quarter of a million in the arts alone. Add half a million in hospitality. Or more.

    And those are just two industries.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    But it’s not. Get 325 MP’s elected with a mandate to abolish HoL, hey presto.
    How can Scotland elect 325 MPs?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited October 2020
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Disagree, obviously.

    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    We may wish to note that his office was created in its current form by the Lisbon Treaty, you know the one Blair and Brown we’re going to give us a vote on till they saw they’d go down in flames with the voters so did it anyway,

    And Cameron. People always forget Cameron pledged and then dropped a Lisbon referendum. But then Lisbon had already been downgraded after French and Dutch referenda rejections.
    Cameron could do nothing about it at all till he won a majority in 2015. He had under 200 seats while Brown was skulking about signing Lisbon in the dead of night and clearly the Lin Dems would’ve had a fit of the vapours 2010-15.

    Cameron woefully underestimated the issue but largely he was the one holding the parcel when the music of many many years standing stopped.
    That largely applies to Brown as well. Although he was the signatory, the decision had been made earlier by Blair after Lisbon was watered down following the French rejection.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    Please fire Cummings
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    Who elects the privy council?
  • welshowl said:


    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    But tell me, given Dominic Cummings holds such an influential post, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?
    lol seriously?

    Vote the Tories out at the next election and he'll be gone forever.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    Of the last 6 UK MPs, 4 took power without a General Election.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    We can't fire our head of state.

    The right covid sequence and we would be ruled by Harry and Meghan.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    Mail reports England is going to follow Scotland into lockdown yet again. This time Schroedinger's lockdown. Not really a lockdown.

    I wonder how much longer what is left of the tory faithful is going to tolerate rule by that particular lady.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427
    Note that my analysis was with figures taken from 538 before the Quinnipiac polls were added.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    But it’s not. Get 325 MP’s elected with a mandate to abolish HoL, hey presto.
    How can Scotland elect 325 MPs?
    Scotland has an equal say on the same basis as England ( if not a bit more per head?). There’s an election at the same time we can all take part in with both Scottish and UK wide debates on common issues. Get 325 abolish HoL

    Compare to M Michel. Elected by qualified majority, where that is dictated by foreign govts (where we, UK citizens have no votes in elections).

    How do I, the voter, fire Charles Michel?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:
    Sort it out America. Upgrade your democracy.
    They are, in a way, given how some 'upgrades' are crap or screw things up.
    The recent bt email one being a case in point. Shockingly bad.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Interesting Simon Israel report on Channel 4 News atm.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    But it’s not. Get 325 MP’s elected with a mandate to abolish HoL, hey presto.
    How can Scotland elect 325 MPs?
    Scotland has an equal say on the same basis as England ( if not a bit more per head?). There’s an election at the same time we can all take part in with both Scottish and UK wide debates on common issues. Get 325 abolish HoL

    Compare to M Michel. Elected by qualified majority, where that is dictated by foreign govts (where we, UK citizens have no votes in elections).

    How do I, the voter, fire Charles Michel?
    Your argument boils down to British nationalism, not the details of democratic processes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    When the people remove Trump from the White House there's the perfect place for him to live. Buffalo Bill's house is up for sale. It would suit him well.

    https://deadline.com/2020/10/the-silence-of-the-lambs-house-for-sale-1234591101/

    Hannibal Vector ?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
  • Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    Blimey.
    Biden is banking his votes right now too.
    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    Someone has been to the future and seen the results of the VP debate

    https://twitter.com/BCDreyer/status/1313871249668440067?s=19

    What he means is that Kamala will be found guilty of being a woman in politics.
    I think Dan Quayle proved VP debates don't matter too much.
    Quayle was trying to spell the word Potatoe wrong. Pence is trying to create Gilead for real.

    This Veep debate matters a lot. I want Harris to eat him for breakfast.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Interesting Simon Israel report on Channel 4 News atm.

    Give us a clue.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    We can't fire our head of state.

    The right covid sequence and we would be ruled by Harry and Meghan.
    I think Meghan might be doing a bit more of the ruling than Harry in that scenario.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.

    The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
    Disagree, obviously.

    But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?

    We may wish to note that his office was created in its current form by the Lisbon Treaty, you know the one Blair and Brown we’re going to give us a vote on till they saw they’d go down in flames with the voters so did it anyway,

    Charles Michel is elected by the elected heads of government. We didn't directly elect the heads of the UN, NATO, World Bank either but we seem to be OK to be members of those organisations.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    We can't fire our head of state.

    The right covid sequence and we would be ruled by Harry and Meghan.
    I think Meghan might be doing a bit more of the ruling than Harry in that scenario.
    I can live with that.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    But it’s not. Get 325 MP’s elected with a mandate to abolish HoL, hey presto.
    How can Scotland elect 325 MPs?
    Scotland has an equal say on the same basis as England ( if not a bit more per head?). There’s an election at the same time we can all take part in with both Scottish and UK wide debates on common issues. Get 325 abolish HoL

    Compare to M Michel. Elected by qualified majority, where that is dictated by foreign govts (where we, UK citizens have no votes in elections).

    How do I, the voter, fire Charles Michel?
    Your argument boils down to British nationalism, not the details of democratic processes.
    Well you would think that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,704
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting Simon Israel report on Channel 4 News atm.

    Give us a clue.
    https://twitter.com/simonisrael/status/1313853729091792897
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.

    'Poor man', my arse - he deserves all the ignomy coming his way, and some.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    Of the last 6 UK MPs, 4 took power without a General Election.
    Running out of straw to clutch at?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    sarissa said:

    MaxPB said:

    My word.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1313784259883171842

    Given that it is Peston I guess it isn't going to happen?

    Absolutely mental.
    Total lunacy if the government does that

    The evidence appears to be that spread in pubs and restaurants is relatively low
    Only 3% of infections if I recall correctly – of course, the authoritarians in the government like it because it makes them look strong and anti-fun.
    Over 20% of recent positive cases in Scotland reported exposure in hospitality venues - more than any other situation (even students mixing).
    A government responding to facts? Golly.
    Just watching the news - Glasgow looks rather grand and substantial. The bit they showed did anyway.
    It is, though the slightly glib slogan 'People make Glasgow' is the truth of it.
    A good one to remember when some bevvied psycho is roaring 'You tong tae me, big man?' in the Gallowgate.
    ☺ - I will remember that.

    Years since I was there and it was a "sleep only" overnighter so I did not get a sense.
  • Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    Blimey.
    Biden is banking his votes right now too.
    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    Someone has been to the future and seen the results of the VP debate

    https://twitter.com/BCDreyer/status/1313871249668440067?s=19

    What he means is that Kamala will be found guilty of being a woman in politics.
    I think Dan Quayle proved VP debates don't matter too much.
    Quayle was trying to spell the word Potatoe wrong. Pence is trying to create Gilead for real.

    This Veep debate matters a lot. I want Harris to eat him for breakfast.
    Both sides will claim the win. They might even both be right, given their bases are so far apart.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    But it’s not. Get 325 MP’s elected with a mandate to abolish HoL, hey presto.
    How can Scotland elect 325 MPs?
    Scotland has an equal say on the same basis as England ( if not a bit more per head?). There’s an election at the same time we can all take part in with both Scottish and UK wide debates on common issues. Get 325 abolish HoL

    Compare to M Michel. Elected by qualified majority, where that is dictated by foreign govts (where we, UK citizens have no votes in elections).

    How do I, the voter, fire Charles Michel?
    Your argument boils down to British nationalism, not the details of democratic processes.
    British patriotism surely? No such thing as British nationalism I'm told.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    Someone has been to the future and seen the results of the VP debate

    https://twitter.com/BCDreyer/status/1313871249668440067?s=19

    What he means is that Kamala will be found guilty of being a woman in politics.
    What's the over/under on the number of commentators that will call her shrill.
  • The state polling showing signs of following the national polling this evening. I suspect this will be Biden’s high watermark, I can’t see things getting much worse for Trumpton in the three weeks that remain.

    Why not?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    I see we’re getting into the choreographed Punchy and Judy stages of Brexit now.

    Clearly there’s a late night claret-soaked compromise still to be struck on fish but I’d say we’re at about a 70% chance of a deal now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    REKT

    I am rolling to disbelieve. In a week Trump will recover
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org

    It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?

    Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Evening all :)

    Another school lunch of polling to digest this evening from across the Pond. I imagine the Rasmussen national poll has attracted some attention. Oddly enough, the Economist/YouGov shows little change from last week:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1qb5j6pdqd/econTabReport.pdf

    I'm struck by the Hispanic vote which shows Biden up 57-24 but 19% still undecided. Clinton won the Hispanic vote 65-29 last time so a small swing to the President but the Undecided block among Hispanics is by far the biggest out there and as @MrEd and others have noted, it doesn't look anywhere near a done deal for Biden. The problem is the numbers - Biden has a 7% swing among White voters and they form by far the biggest block.

    Trump's 2016 lead of 11 points among men is now a 5 point Biden lead so an 8% swing and that's where the damage is - among White men.

    As for State polls, I imagine the Quinnipiac Florida poll has had plenty of notice but it looks an outlier to this observer.

    The Siena poll showing Biden up 6 in Nevada tempts me to move that State back into the blue column from TCTC as does the Quinnipiac poll showing Biden up five in Iowa. To be fair, I need to see more evidence before I call either state but the trend is worrying for the Republicans.

    I love polls from states which don't get much notice - one such example is West Virginia, almost heaven, Blue Ridge mountains, Shenandoah river etc. In 2016 Trump won 68-26 but now he leads 56-38 which I make a 12% swing to Biden. In vote numbers, that's small but it's one of the largest state swings I've seen in a poll.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    I see we’re getting into the choreographed Punchy and Judy stages of Brexit now.

    Clearly there’s a late night claret-soaked compromise still to be struck on fish but I’d say we’re at about a 70% chance of a deal now.

    It's much higher than that. Neither side could handle no deal in the current environment.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Do you support Scottish independence as the only way to fire the House of Lords?
    But it’s not. Get 325 MP’s elected with a mandate to abolish HoL, hey presto.
    How can Scotland elect 325 MPs?
    Scotland has an equal say on the same basis as England ( if not a bit more per head?). There’s an election at the same time we can all take part in with both Scottish and UK wide debates on common issues. Get 325 abolish HoL

    Compare to M Michel. Elected by qualified majority, where that is dictated by foreign govts (where we, UK citizens have no votes in elections).

    How do I, the voter, fire Charles Michel?
    But I, as a voter in Romford, have no votes in Cardiff, Chichester or Coleraine. I have a say in my patch, other people have a say in theirs. Same mechanism of indirect election for Johnson and Michel.

    Except that by leaving the EU, the UK has lost its input into Charles Michel's election. And I suspect that, since we're still going to be neighbours, the person in that role is still going to be of relevance to the path the UK takes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Barnesian said:

    The polls have got to Trump. He's going beserk.

    "DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!"

    Who is he asking to do something? The President?

    This is going to end badly for him - poor man.

    You do have to wonder if the experimental drugs he has been given are addling his mind

    What mind?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    SPIN continues to move Biden-wards. Now 315-321, Supremacy 93-101 (equivalent to 315.5-319.5)

    It’s the Pence Identity, the Biden Supremacy and the Trump Legacy.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    But the UK PM is chosen by UK MPs elected at the UK General Election.

    Which election led to the President of the European Council being chosen?
    The President of the Council is chosen by EU heads of government by QMV. Those governments are all chosen following elections. So nobody votes for him directly, but then we don't vote directly for our PM either. And I certainly can't vote Dido Harding or Dominic Cummings or any of the other malignant unelected trolls who are casting such a baleful shadow over our national life out of office either.
    But you can’t vote in elections that dictate 85% of QMV.

    Elect a Govt to eject the Tories ( which you can vote in) you eject Cummings et al.
  • Alistair said:

    nico679 said:

    Absolutely astonishing polls coming out from Quinnipiac! Even I can’t believe these . Wow!

    If you're going to write something like that can you link to them please?
    https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1313903799615004673?s=21
    REKT

    I am rolling rip disbelieve. In a week Trump will recover
    Just imagine if the polls are as out as they were in 2012.

    Trump would be the Orange Walter Mondale.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    nichomar said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.

    And would again.

    Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
    Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
    No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
    Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
    Good luck with that argument.

    I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
    Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.

    If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
    It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
    Oh FFS!

    So how am I voting for the elected head of govt of Estonia?
    How are you voting for the MP for Mid Ulster?
    By moving there and registering.

    Last time I checked even if I upped sticks and moved to Talinn ( lovely city btw), I couldn’t register to vote.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Biden up to 84% in the 538 simulations.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited October 2020
    Biden has to beat Clinton’s results in the 3 mid west swing states she lost by 1 point and hold onto the states she won to become President .

    Trump rode a perfect storm on Election Day and scraped over the line by a combined 78,000 votes across 3 states . Is that really likely again .

    Aswell as that there’s much more early and mail in voting now , there’s less undecided voters also .

    If you have healthy leads in more than enough states then even if your poll numbers drop a bit you’ve already banked a lot of votes.

    The GOP tend to do better on Election Day but how many votes will Biden have banked by then ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited October 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Great Barrington Declaration. Please sign if you agree.

    https://gbdeclaration.org

    It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?

    Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
    There's a Great Barrington in Massachusetts.

    Edit - 'Kin hell, I spelled Massachusetts correctly for the first time.
This discussion has been closed.