People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.
The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.
Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour, has a totally unelected upper house and a hereditary head of state...
Bless.
What an infantile response. The democracy you live in is massively imperfect in all kinds of ways - the safe seat problem, unelected upper house, absence of direct democracy more than twice a century, unaccountable judiciary - all areas in which someone with an intelligent interest in the subject would have strong opinions. But you dont seem to mind because your concept of debate is to pick a side - quite arbitrarily, for all one can tell - and to assert that everything about your side is the greatest and everything about your opponents is yucky and pooey.
To prove that you are an intelligent champion of UK democracy why not list the three ways in which you would most like to see it reformed?
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
It also raises that complicated issue of those who don't live in a lockdown area but work in a lockdown area, and vice versa, it opens all sorts of anomalies.
It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?
Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
There's a Great Barrington in Massachusetts.
Edit - 'Kin hell, I spelled Massachusetts correctly for the first time.
Still more practice required on those swear words though.
I am guessing the reluctance to closing gyms again is it isn't as easy for us all just pop outside on our bikes, go for a jog in the park etc now that the weather is turning bad and in a couple of weeks the clocks go back.
It is surpassingly odd that Joe Public is being asked to sign a declaration beginning "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we..." I am certainly not qualified, and can't be bothered to sign up as Seymour Butts or Mike Hunt. But if they are such bigass epidemiologists what do randomers' signatures add to it?
Is it a Declaration made at Great Barrington, incidentally, or a Great Declaration made at Barrington?
There's a Great Barrington in Massachusetts.
Edit - 'Kin hell, I spelled Massachusetts correctly for the first time.
Still more practice required on those swear words though.
I'm a good Muslim boy, I don't use proper swear words.
Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.
And would again.
Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
There were two main reasons, I believe, why people voted Leave: (1) To take control and be Masters of Our Own Ship; (2) We aren't interested in the EU, we don't like it very much and want to get it out of our lives.
The exact opposites of those two things will actually happen. We will have less influence over things that matter to us; the EU will never impinge on our lives more than now. Which is the biggest reason why Brexit is such a huge mistake for the UK.
Disagree, obviously.
But tell me, given Charles Michel holds such an influential post, were we still members, how do I, the humble voter, fire him?
We may wish to note that his office was created in its current form by the Lisbon Treaty, you know the one Blair and Brown we’re going to give us a vote on till they saw they’d go down in flames with the voters so did it anyway,
And Cameron. People always forget Cameron pledged and then dropped a Lisbon referendum. But then Lisbon had already been downgraded after French and Dutch referenda rejections.
Cameron could do nothing about it at all till he won a majority in 2015. He had under 200 seats while Brown was skulking about signing Lisbon in the dead of night and clearly the Lin Dems would’ve had a fit of the vapours 2010-15.
Cameron woefully underestimated the issue but largely he was the one holding the parcel when the music of many many years standing stopped.
He should have called a retrospective referendum - verdict NO - and then demanded a renegotiation. Cue some theatre, some yielding from the EU, and bingo, we stay in the EU but we stay in the periphery. Avoiding the tragic rupture of Brexit
I am guessing the reluctance to closing gyms again is it isn't as easy for us all just pop outside on our bikes, go for a jog in the park etc now that the weather is turning bad and in a couple of weeks the clocks go back.
It's also a question of volume. How many people want to go to a pub/bar/restaurant? How many want to go to a gym?
I am guessing the reluctance to closing gyms again is it isn't as easy for us all just pop outside on our bikes, go for a jog in the park etc now that the weather is turning bad and in a couple of weeks the clocks go back.
I have my own gym now. I can't see gyms hitting their old membership figures for a whole.
It seems again the government is leaking this stuff out now, so we get 4-5 days of media getting very excitable about how all very confusing (without knowing the exact facts), then Boris makes an announcement on Monday, but doesn't come into force until Wednesday or Friday, so over a week after the first leaks.
Rather than just making a decision and announcing it.
I am guessing the reluctance to closing gyms again is it isn't as easy for us all just pop outside on our bikes, go for a jog in the park etc now that the weather is turning bad and in a couple of weeks the clocks go back.
There hasn't been a lot of pox in gyms. But logic dictates that if we are shutting down indoor spreading then me pounding away in a gym sweating buckets must be a Bad Thing. Yes, going out in the cold and probably dark to run will probably be awful. But what's the alternative?
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
It also raises that complicated issue of those who don't live in a lockdown area but work in a lockdown area, and vice versa, it opens all sorts of anomalies.
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
You would hope not, any more than a sunny day in London causes resentment in a rainy Newcastle.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
And this is all basically all to do with Universities. Nothing actually to do with all the businesses and venues being forced to close down.
Well, quite.
What’s the logic in closing hospitality and keeping universities open - when these are now the source of a significant proportion of the cases and when much of university studying can be done online?
People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.
The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.
Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour, has a totally unelected upper house and a hereditary head of state...
Bless.
What an infantile response. The democracy you live in is massively imperfect in all kinds of ways - the safe seat problem, unelected upper house, absence of direct democracy more than twice a century, unaccountable judiciary - all areas in which someone with an intelligent interest in the subject would have strong opinions. But you dont seem to mind because your concept of debate is to pick a side - quite arbitrarily, for all one can tell - and to assert that everything about your side is the greatest and everything about your opponents is yucky and pooey.
To prove that you are an intelligent champion of UK democracy why not list the three ways in which you would most like to see it reformed?
German ( or indeed Welsh) style mix of directly elected seats and proportional top ups.
Some form of elected second chamber but without substantially more pier than HoL.
An English Parliament ( or abolition of devolution).
Yes it was a bit infantile but there again Mr Glenn and his world view irritate me intensely.
He has the right, of course, to advocate them, and occasionally I’ll bite.
The government has completely lost the plot!!!!!There was a time when it had a plot?
Utterly bonkers.
Ministers are now becoming dangerous. Panic stricken and not thinking clearly. Totally in thrall to a small set of scientists. No understanding of wider economic or public health issues.
If Sunak thinks we are in the shit now wait until we have three or four months of this kind of off-the-wall lockdown.
People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.
The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.
Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour, has a totally unelected upper house and a hereditary head of state...
Bless.
What an infantile response. The democracy you live in is massively imperfect in all kinds of ways - the safe seat problem, unelected upper house, absence of direct democracy more than twice a century, unaccountable judiciary - all areas in which someone with an intelligent interest in the subject would have strong opinions. But you dont seem to mind because your concept of debate is to pick a side - quite arbitrarily, for all one can tell - and to assert that everything about your side is the greatest and everything about your opponents is yucky and pooey.
To prove that you are an intelligent champion of UK democracy why not list the three ways in which you would most like to see it reformed?
German ( or indeed Welsh) style mix of directly elected seats and proportional top ups.
Some form of elected second chamber but without substantially more pier than HoL.
An English Parliament ( or abolition of devolution).
Yes it was a bit infantile but there again Mr Glenn and his world view irritate me intensely.
He has the right, of course, to advocate them, and occasionally I’ll bite.
And this is all basically all to do with Universities. Nothing actually to do with all the businesses and venues being forced to close down.
Well, quite.
What’s the logic in closing hospitality and keeping universities open - when these are now the source of a significant proportion of the cases and when much of university studying can be done online?
And in fact IS being done online! It's not even as if they're holding out for the importance of face to face teaching.
In a way it's like them claiming that everything should be subordinate to schools staying open - and then seeing huge numbers of schools simply sending everyone home on the basis of a handful of cases - so not really even prioritising staying open themselves!
Ministers are now becoming dangerous. Panic stricken and not thinking clearly. Totally in thrall to a small set of scientists. No understanding of wider economic or public health issues.
If Sunak thinks we are in the shit now wait until we have three or four months of this kind of off-the-wall lockdown.
People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.
The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.
Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour, has a totally unelected upper house and a hereditary head of state...
Bless.
What an infantile response. The democracy you live in is massively imperfect in all kinds of ways - the safe seat problem, unelected upper house, absence of direct democracy more than twice a century, unaccountable judiciary - all areas in which someone with an intelligent interest in the subject would have strong opinions. But you dont seem to mind because your concept of debate is to pick a side - quite arbitrarily, for all one can tell - and to assert that everything about your side is the greatest and everything about your opponents is yucky and pooey.
To prove that you are an intelligent champion of UK democracy why not list the three ways in which you would most like to see it reformed?
German ( or indeed Welsh) style mix of directly elected seats and proportional top ups.
Some form of elected second chamber but without substantially more pier than HoL.
An English Parliament ( or abolition of devolution).
Yes it was a bit infantile but there again Mr Glenn and his world view irritate me intensely.
He has the right, of course, to advocate them, and occasionally I’ll bite.
The Welsh system is an abomination. It’s locked a Labour government with limited popular support into power for 21 years and if applied UK wide would make it very hard for any party save the Tories to get close to a majority.
Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.
And would again.
Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
Good luck with that argument.
I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.
If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
Oh do fuck off. No ordinary European voter voted for the EU President - any of them. I forget how many EU presidents there are. Five? Boris Johnson was elected twice over, by the people of Uxbridge, and also by Tory MPs, who
Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.
And would again.
Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
Good luck with that argument.
I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.
If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
Oh do fuck off. No ordinary European voter voted for the EU President - any of them. I forget how many EU presidents there are. Five? Boris Johnson was elected twice over, by the people of Uxbridge, and also by Tory MPs, who
And this is all basically all to do with Universities. Nothing actually to do with all the businesses and venues being forced to close down.
Well, quite.
What’s the logic in closing hospitality and keeping universities open - when these are now the source of a significant proportion of the cases and when much of university studying can be done online?
Actual, overt logic, God knows, but keeping the Universities open has the unintended side effect of creating the closest thing we will get to a trial of let it rip theory.
Hopefully sensible MPs can get a grip next week and vote out the 10pm curfew - then tell Boris and Hancock to sort out the testing rather than lunatic lockdown proposals which will wreck an already half-bankrupt economy.
People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.
The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.
Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour.
It was 700 years ago, I think most will have gotten over it.
Have you ever actually read a translation of the Welsh National Anthem?
I haven't, but I can imagine. National anthems aren't exactly subtle. They're also quite likely to have a rather weird view of their own country's history!
Its clear now surely that the lockdown strategy the government is pursuing is leading to only to a catastrophic collapse. Almost apocalyptic. Economic collapse. Social collapse.
It undoubtedly is the worst policy mistake by any British government ever.
Trump, throughout the campaign, has consistently spent on digital and face to face canvassing, while Biden has focused on TV. It’s been a deliberate policy tactic (with, yes, probably money issues thrown in). Biden is spending more on TV but Trump, pretty consistently, has spent more on digital
Its clear now surely that the lockdown strategy the government is pursuing is leading to only to a catastrophic collapse. Almost apocalyptic. Economic collapse. Social collapse.
It undoubtedly is the worst policy mistake by any British government ever.
I think the first was fair enough. We knew next to nothing about the virus and even the Barrington Three say it was a good response whilst we worked out what we were facing.
People need to be able to accountably fire their rulers or they are not free.
The council of this being appointed by the commissioner for that by qmv divided by the height of M Blanc in centimetres won’t cut it.
Says the man from a country that was annexed by its neighbour, has a totally unelected upper house and a hereditary head of state...
Bless.
What an infantile response. The democracy you live in is massively imperfect in all kinds of ways - the safe seat problem, unelected upper house, absence of direct democracy more than twice a century, unaccountable judiciary - all areas in which someone with an intelligent interest in the subject would have strong opinions. But you dont seem to mind because your concept of debate is to pick a side - quite arbitrarily, for all one can tell - and to assert that everything about your side is the greatest and everything about your opponents is yucky and pooey.
To prove that you are an intelligent champion of UK democracy why not list the three ways in which you would most like to see it reformed?
German ( or indeed Welsh) style mix of directly elected seats and proportional top ups.
Some form of elected second chamber but without substantially more pier than HoL.
An English Parliament ( or abolition of devolution).
Yes it was a bit infantile but there again Mr Glenn and his world view irritate me intensely.
He has the right, of course, to advocate them, and occasionally I’ll bite.
The Welsh system is an abomination. It’s locked a Labour government with limited popular support into power for 21 years and if applied UK wide would make it very hard for any party save the Tories to get close to a majority.
The Welsh system exactly isn’t great, and the peculiarities of Welsh politics with two strongish parties opposed to Labour from different angles doesn’t help. It was more the principle of direct and top up electoral mix I was advocating.
Its clear now surely that the lockdown strategy the government is pursuing is leading to only to a catastrophic collapse. Almost apocalyptic. Economic collapse. Social collapse.
It undoubtedly is the worst policy mistake by any British government ever.
Any other government would probably have made the same decisions.
This is the key: the country tolerated and to an extent supported three months of national lockdown because we thought the government would sort it out. It hasn't done so.
There is no real support for the reintroduction of such measures where the government hasn't been able to set out a clear path out of this.
I asked the question the other day about how many Republican Reps and Senators Trump could theoretically take down with him. But didn't see the response. What are the worst case scenarios for the GOP in November?
Hopefully sensible MPs can get a grip next week and vote out the 10pm curfew - then tell Boris and Hancock to sort out the testing rather than lunatic lockdown proposals which will wreck an already half-bankrupt economy.
Welsh Labour have tonight endorsed the 10.00pm pub time
It has recently been stated as a fact that Biden is not doing as well in the State polls as in the National polls. However, this seemed to be based on little more than the examination of individual state and national polls, rather than an analysis in the aggregate. Therefore, I decided to look at this to see whether there was a systematic difference.
To do so I looked at the 538 polling averages for each state (note there is not a 538 polling average for DC, NE, RI, SD or WY) and at the national level. I calculated the swing for each state compared to the 2016 result, and the difference between the state swing and the national swing. I could then plot this difference against Clinton's lead for each state. This is the attached plot.
I would say that the hypothesis is disproved. There are many states where the polling average implies a greater swing than the national swing, and many where it is less. There is a suggestion that the swing to Biden is greatest in states lost by Clinton by the widest margins, and least in those Clinton won comfortably. This would be consistent with the idea of Biden as a much less polarising figure than Clinton who has a greater chance of unifying the country to some extent (though this would seem to be an obvious observation).
Great stuff.
Way back when we had a bunch of arguments here about Proportional Loss vs UNS. The thought was that if you flip 10% of GOP supporters to Dem, that will be a greater proportion of the total in a state with 80% GOP (8% went Dem) than in a state with 20% GOP (2% went Dem). The argument was that UNS can't be right, because if you have a 10% national swing against GOP in a state where GOP got 6% they end up with -4%, but you can't get negative votes.
IIUC the UNS method seems to be a better predictor of actual results *in close states* for various reasons, but I wonder if that's what we're seeing here?
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
You would hope not, any more than a sunny day in London causes resentment in a rainy Newcastle.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
I was in Skye recently, and I asked the locals how they stayed sane during a rainy Scottish summer week. They said, unanimously,: (three of them): "don't check the weather in London".
One of them opined that SE England having superior weather (it's all relative) was a major driver of indy support. London is seen as wealthier AND luckier. Breeding resentment. Who knows...
This is the key: the country tolerated and to an extent supported three months of national lockdown because we thought the government would sort it out. It hasn't done so.
There is no real support for the reintroduction of such measures where the government hasn't been able to set out a clear path out of this.
I'm afraid there is probably a huge proportion of the country who DO still support it. Because they don't perceive that they lose anything from it happening. Secure income, and feel they are vulnerable to the virus.
Its clear now surely that the lockdown strategy the government is pursuing is leading to only to a catastrophic collapse. Almost apocalyptic. Economic collapse. Social collapse.
It undoubtedly is the worst policy mistake by any British government ever.
Any other government would probably have made the same decisions.
World wide most nations like ours did, to greater or lesser success. With massive support from the population.
If it is the worst policy mistake ever its one shared by much of the world and much of the time the people wanted to be even harsher.
Its clear now surely that the lockdown strategy the government is pursuing is leading to only to a catastrophic collapse. Almost apocalyptic. Economic collapse. Social collapse.
It undoubtedly is the worst policy mistake by any British government ever.
Any other government would probably have made the same decisions.
As would Labour on Black Wednesday, or the Tories over a Northern Rock.
Ultimately, what will do for Johnson and his pathetic band of low life losers with room temperature IQs is that whatever should or should not have been done, and whatever others would or would not have done, they were in power and they did it.
And he electorate will not be feeling generous when it comes to judgement.
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
You would hope not, any more than a sunny day in London causes resentment in a rainy Newcastle.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
I was in Skye recently, and I asked the locals how they stayed sane during a rainy Scottish summer week. They said, unanimously,: (three of them): "don't check the weather in London".
One of them opined that SE England having superior weather (it's all relative) was a major driver of indy support. London is seen as wealthier AND luckier. Breeding resentment. Who knows...
Why are people abjuring rationality and logical thinking in this way? It's like going back to the middle ages.
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
You would hope not, any more than a sunny day in London causes resentment in a rainy Newcastle.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
I was in Skye recently, and I asked the locals how they stayed sane during a rainy Scottish summer week. They said, unanimously,: (three of them): "don't check the weather in London".
One of them opined that SE England having superior weather (it's all relative) was a major driver of indy support. London is seen as wealthier AND luckier. Breeding resentment. Who knows...
Why are people abjuring rationality and logical thinking in this way? It's like going back to the middle ages.
Middle ages with less god bothering and more Netflix and Zoom.
Hopefully sensible MPs can get a grip next week and vote out the 10pm curfew - then tell Boris and Hancock to sort out the testing rather than lunatic lockdown proposals which will wreck an already half-bankrupt economy.
Welsh Labour have tonight endorsed the 10.00pm pub time
Not surprising in the end... LAB will always follow the totalitarian approach. Good job Drakeford is sorting it out SO well in Wales!
No doubt the shower running this will deny pubs any funding for the closure.
Well, they - or rather we - will have to find the money for unemployment welfare and to cover the loss of tax revenues. So it would make sense to support hospitality and others affected.
Not having the likes of Charles Michel on our media quite so much post January 1 reminds me why I voted to leave in the first place.
And would again.
Leaving the EU doesn’t make the EU go away.
Of course not, but it will mean there’s less need to have their irritating cast of characters on the TV or radio quite so much, pontificating at us for having had the temerity to see things differently to them, and, unlike all the other times people tried to stop the juggernaut, stick with it.
No more irritating than the muppet show running the UK
Quite possibly so. But I can vote to fire them. Unlike M. Michel.
Good luck with that argument.
I've tried explaining this for 4 years to EU supporters and they are completely unable to grasp this simple concept.
Tony Benn used to make this point. Now I can count on the fingers of one hand things I agreed with Tony Benn on, but on this he was bang on the money.
If you can’t fire your rulers you’ve got big problems.
It's no less disingenuous than any of Tony Benn's other arguments. The UK PM is chosen by an electoral college of elected MPs and the President of the European Council is chosen by an electoral college of elected heads of government.
Oh do fuck off. No ordinary European voter voted for the EU President - any of them. I forget how many EU presidents there are. Five? Boris Johnson was elected twice over, by the people of Uxbridge, and also by Tory MPs, who
The EU is a piece of shit. Good riddance.
You just said Brexit was a calamity. Which is it?
It is an unfortunately necessary calamity, due to the asinine stupidity and arrogance of europhiles, who denied us a vote for so many years, stoking the resentment which led to the Brexit explosion. Yes, I'm looking at you: Heseltine, Clarke, Major, Blair, Clegg, Cameron, and so on.
If they'd allowed a vote earlier, democratic anger would have been vented, and Brexit would have been avoided.
In the end these stupid fucks left it so late, we pressed the big red button marked Nuclear Option, as that was the only option we were given
Hopefully sensible MPs can get a grip next week and vote out the 10pm curfew - then tell Boris and Hancock to sort out the testing rather than lunatic lockdown proposals which will wreck an already half-bankrupt economy.
Welsh Labour have tonight endorsed the 10.00pm pub time
Not surprising in the end... LAB will always follow the totalitarian approach. Good job Drakeford is sorting it out SO well in Wales!
Yep. Johnson is just on a slightly slower trajectory.
But the forthcoming Lockdown 2.0 and the massive economic and public health disaster ensuing will do for him.
I was of the view he was screwed by covid even if all had gone as well as could be. It'll be a rare government to face the inevitable consequences without a severe popularity hit once unemployment surges etc (Scotland will likely be one of the exceptions, others will get lucky in their opponents).
And this is all basically all to do with Universities. Nothing actually to do with all the businesses and venues being forced to close down.
Well, quite.
What’s the logic in closing hospitality and keeping universities open - when these are now the source of a significant proportion of the cases and when much of university studying can be done online?
And in fact IS being done online! It's not even as if they're holding out for the importance of face to face teaching.
In a way it's like them claiming that everything should be subordinate to schools staying open - and then seeing huge numbers of schools simply sending everyone home on the basis of a handful of cases - so not really even prioritising staying open themselves!
Northumbria is. There is a ballot on strike action. And, I, for one, do not blame them.
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
You would hope not, any more than a sunny day in London causes resentment in a rainy Newcastle.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
I was in Skye recently, and I asked the locals how they stayed sane during a rainy Scottish summer week. They said, unanimously,: (three of them): "don't check the weather in London".
One of them opined that SE England having superior weather (it's all relative) was a major driver of indy support. London is seen as wealthier AND luckier. Breeding resentment. Who knows...
Why are people abjuring rationality and logical thinking in this way? It's like going back to the middle ages.
Average western IQs are declining (and possibly worldwide). Never forget
I genuinely believe this is now having a serious impact on world affairs. People are getting dumber
This is the key: the country tolerated and to an extent supported three months of national lockdown because we thought the government would sort it out. It hasn't done so.
There is no real support for the reintroduction of such measures where the government hasn't been able to set out a clear path out of this.
And has wasted the months since then instead of building an effective Test and Trace system.
And this is all basically all to do with Universities. Nothing actually to do with all the businesses and venues being forced to close down.
Well, quite.
What’s the logic in closing hospitality and keeping universities open - when these are now the source of a significant proportion of the cases and when much of university studying can be done online?
And in fact IS being done online! It's not even as if they're holding out for the importance of face to face teaching.
In a way it's like them claiming that everything should be subordinate to schools staying open - and then seeing huge numbers of schools simply sending everyone home on the basis of a handful of cases - so not really even prioritising staying open themselves!
Northumbria is. There is a ballot on strike action. And, I, for one, do not blame them.
Northumbria University (and Newcastle University) have gone online only until the 23rd October at least. It was announced today.
Just looking at Manchester's map and it's not pretty:
The 22 ONS neighbourhoods nearest the University neighbourhood (basically two rings around), population would typically be about 160k, but I'm expecting the universities could easily swell that by 30k, have 1969 covid cases, so we're looking at 1000-1200 cases per 100k population, in that area - mainly Manchester but with nibbles of Trafford and Salford.
Fallowfield Central alone accounts for 612 cases in a population of, say, 7-10k, so we're around 6-8000 positive tests per 100k in the last 7 days. The testing might not catch everyone, so it's possible that 10-15% of the population have caught COVID in the last 7 days. That's pretty much at Diamond Princess levels (the total infection rate for the whole duration there was under 20%.
This is the key: the country tolerated and to an extent supported three months of national lockdown because we thought the government would sort it out. It hasn't done so.
There is no real support for the reintroduction of such measures where the government hasn't been able to set out a clear path out of this.
And has wasted the months since then instead of building an effective Test and Trace system.
Sunak to depose Johnson by Xmas with full support of 1922 on a ticket of a far more balanced economic and public health response to the virus?
Sounds far fetched, but this public policy disaster and crisis is moving fast.
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
You would hope not, any more than a sunny day in London causes resentment in a rainy Newcastle.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
I was in Skye recently, and I asked the locals how they stayed sane during a rainy Scottish summer week. They said, unanimously,: (three of them): "don't check the weather in London".
One of them opined that SE England having superior weather (it's all relative) was a major driver of indy support. London is seen as wealthier AND luckier. Breeding resentment. Who knows...
Why are people abjuring rationality and logical thinking in this way? It's like going back to the middle ages.
Average western IQs are declining (and possibly worldwide). Never forget
I genuinely believe this is now having a serious impact on world affairs. People are getting dumber
I am not saying there's a better option but isn't there a danger that stringent regional lockdowns will breed resentment and civil disobedience in a way that national lockdowns where we're 'all in it together' avoid?
You would hope not, any more than a sunny day in London causes resentment in a rainy Newcastle.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
I was in Skye recently, and I asked the locals how they stayed sane during a rainy Scottish summer week. They said, unanimously,: (three of them): "don't check the weather in London".
One of them opined that SE England having superior weather (it's all relative) was a major driver of indy support. London is seen as wealthier AND luckier. Breeding resentment. Who knows...
Why are people abjuring rationality and logical thinking in this way?
It's easier. Though that particular examplesounds like a wind up.
Just looking at Manchester's map and it's not pretty:
The 22 ONS neighbourhoods nearest the University neighbourhood (basically two rings around), population would typically be about 160k, but I'm expecting the universities could easily swell that by 30k, have 1969 covid cases, so we're looking at 1000-1200 cases per 100k population, in that area - mainly Manchester but with nibbles of Trafford and Salford.
Fallowfield Central alone accounts for 612 cases in a population of, say, 7-10k, so we're around 6-8000 positive tests per 100k in the last 7 days. The testing might not catch everyone, so it's possible that 10-15% of the population have caught COVID in the last 7 days. That's pretty much at Diamond Princess levels (the total infection rate for the whole duration there was under 20%.
Fallowfield Central presumably includes the main student halls of residence at Owens Park plus the student streets by Platt Fields so my guess is it is probably at the higher end of that range (most native Fallowfielders live away from the student district).
Just looking at Manchester's map and it's not pretty:
The 22 ONS neighbourhoods nearest the University neighbourhood (basically two rings around), population would typically be about 160k, but I'm expecting the universities could easily swell that by 30k, have 1969 covid cases, so we're looking at 1000-1200 cases per 100k population, in that area - mainly Manchester but with nibbles of Trafford and Salford.
Fallowfield Central alone accounts for 612 cases in a population of, say, 7-10k, so we're around 6-8000 positive tests per 100k in the last 7 days. The testing might not catch everyone, so it's possible that 10-15% of the population have caught COVID in the last 7 days. That's pretty much at Diamond Princess levels (the total infection rate for the whole duration there was under 20%.
That seems good news to me.
I am worried that people are panicking and going to overreact to Freshers Flu. If 10-15% already have the virus this will burn out quickly, like Freshers Flu normally does.
Its a shame people aren't talking much about what's happened overseas in other countries with universities that started back before ours. In America the experience of many universities seems to be 2-3 weeks of high cases then it burns out.
I really, really hope we don't panic and overreact to Freshers Flu only to see cases collapse back down but the damage has been done.
This is the key: the country tolerated and to an extent supported three months of national lockdown because we thought the government would sort it out. It hasn't done so.
There is no real support for the reintroduction of such measures where the government hasn't been able to set out a clear path out of this.
I'm afraid there is probably a huge proportion of the country who DO still support it. Because they don't perceive that they lose anything from it happening. Secure income, and feel they are vulnerable to the virus.
Well then, they can pay a bit more tax on their secure income to help those who are now very insecure and without an income or a much reduced one.
Organisers of illegal raves really shouldn't worry about the track and trace app, the functionality was removed to report straight up to Gov't so the system could work. Well unless they stick a QR code on their event
Hopefully sensible MPs can get a grip next week and vote out the 10pm curfew - then tell Boris and Hancock to sort out the testing rather than lunatic lockdown proposals which will wreck an already half-bankrupt economy.
Welsh Labour have tonight endorsed the 10.00pm pub time
Not surprising in the end... LAB will always follow the totalitarian approach. Good job Drakeford is sorting it out SO well in Wales!
Drakeford is a disaster
He really is.
This will come as a surprise to many PBers, but I spent the first lockdown in a pretty Welsh seaside town.
Drakeford decided to close the local country park. An area of lovely little lakes and woods and hills, ideal for exercise and cycling and family happiness, while big enough to allow massive social distancing. A place you could walk to and enjoy, from the town, without fear of infection.
It was the perfect asset during Covid. The town was lucky to have it. His stupid government tried to close it.
TBF to the good sane people of Wales, they realised Drakeford is a massive twat, and ignored the law. Even the guy who was instructed to drive around with a megaphone telling people to go home to the town where they could be more easily infected, said Yes this is absolutely stupid, and then he and I agreed to just wave at each other and say hi. From that moment on he drove around without even trying to enforce the rule and he turned his megaphone off.
The Cardiff government is even stupider than the London government
Comments
To prove that you are an intelligent champion of UK democracy why not list the three ways in which you would most like to see it reformed?
Rather than just making a decision and announcing it.
Actually it almost certainly does, so scrap that comparison. I am sure it has crossed the governmental mind that national lockdowns are politically safer than selective ones, and that they have maps correlating covidity with voting habits.
What’s the logic in closing hospitality and keeping universities open - when these are now the source of a significant proportion of the cases and when much of university studying can be done online?
Some form of elected second chamber but without substantially more pier than HoL.
An English Parliament ( or abolition of devolution).
Yes it was a bit infantile but there again Mr Glenn and his world view irritate me intensely.
He has the right, of course, to advocate them, and occasionally I’ll bite.
The government has completely lost the plot!!!!!There was a time when it had a plot?
Utterly bonkers.
Ministers are now becoming dangerous. Panic stricken and not thinking clearly. Totally in thrall to a small set of scientists. No understanding of wider economic or public health issues.
If Sunak thinks we are in the shit now wait until we have three or four months of this kind of off-the-wall lockdown.
Civil unrest awaits I fear.
Can Graham Brady rescue us from this calamity?
In a way it's like them claiming that everything should be subordinate to schools staying open - and then seeing huge numbers of schools simply sending everyone home on the basis of a handful of cases - so not really even prioritising staying open themselves!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
The EU is a piece of shit. Good riddance.
No doubt the shower running this will deny pubs any funding for the closure.
It undoubtedly is the worst policy mistake by any British government ever.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/07/trump-outspending-biden-on-facebook-in-states-he-won.html
Trump, throughout the campaign, has consistently spent on digital and face to face canvassing, while Biden has focused on TV. It’s been a deliberate policy tactic (with, yes, probably money issues thrown in). Biden is spending more on TV but Trump, pretty consistently, has spent more on digital
But now...
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1151669588808986624
There is no real support for the reintroduction of such measures where the government hasn't been able to set out a clear path out of this.
But the forthcoming Lockdown 2.0 and the massive economic and public health disaster ensuing will do for him.
To give Dido Harding something to do whilst they await the setting up of the New Lack of Public Health England quango for her to run.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.sportscasting.com/nba-finals-ratings-are-lower-than-ever-and-theyre-getting-worse-every-game/?amp
Way back when we had a bunch of arguments here about Proportional Loss vs UNS. The thought was that if you flip 10% of GOP supporters to Dem, that will be a greater proportion of the total in a state with 80% GOP (8% went Dem) than in a state with 20% GOP (2% went Dem). The argument was that UNS can't be right, because if you have a 10% national swing against GOP in a state where GOP got 6% they end up with -4%, but you can't get negative votes.
IIUC the UNS method seems to be a better predictor of actual results *in close states* for various reasons, but I wonder if that's what we're seeing here?
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/07/in-michigan-trump-and-biden-compete-for-pandemic-weary-swing-voters/
One of them opined that SE England having superior weather (it's all relative) was a major driver of indy support. London is seen as wealthier AND luckier. Breeding resentment. Who knows...
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/huge-beast-eats-equivalent-41-22809994?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Germany have just allowed Turkey to equalise in the 94th minute. 3-3.
If it is the worst policy mistake ever its one shared by much of the world and much of the time the people wanted to be even harsher.
Ultimately, what will do for Johnson and his pathetic band of low life losers with room temperature IQs is that whatever should or should not have been done, and whatever others would or would not have done, they were in power and they did it.
And he electorate will not be feeling generous when it comes to judgement.
Good night.
He's a pillock. Does he really think that this makes him look big to anyone?
But sense and this government are strangers.
If they'd allowed a vote earlier, democratic anger would have been vented, and Brexit would have been avoided.
In the end these stupid fucks left it so late, we pressed the big red button marked Nuclear Option, as that was the only option we were given
I genuinely believe this is now having a serious impact on world affairs. People are getting dumber
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576
NHS ready to roll out covid jab from next month with tens of thousands of people being vaccinated daily by Christmas
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12872851/nhs-gear-up-covid-jab-roll-out-next-month/
The 22 ONS neighbourhoods nearest the University neighbourhood (basically two rings around), population would typically be about 160k, but I'm expecting the universities could easily swell that by 30k, have 1969 covid cases, so we're looking at 1000-1200 cases per 100k population, in that area - mainly Manchester but with nibbles of Trafford and Salford.
Fallowfield Central alone accounts for 612 cases in a population of, say, 7-10k, so we're around 6-8000 positive tests per 100k in the last 7 days. The testing might not catch everyone, so it's possible that 10-15% of the population have caught COVID in the last 7 days. That's pretty much at Diamond Princess levels (the total infection rate for the whole duration there was under 20%.
Sounds far fetched, but this public policy disaster and crisis is moving fast.
I am worried that people are panicking and going to overreact to Freshers Flu. If 10-15% already have the virus this will burn out quickly, like Freshers Flu normally does.
Its a shame people aren't talking much about what's happened overseas in other countries with universities that started back before ours. In America the experience of many universities seems to be 2-3 weeks of high cases then it burns out.
I really, really hope we don't panic and overreact to Freshers Flu only to see cases collapse back down but the damage has been done.
Well unless they stick a QR code on their event
This will come as a surprise to many PBers, but I spent the first lockdown in a pretty Welsh seaside town.
Drakeford decided to close the local country park. An area of lovely little lakes and woods and hills, ideal for exercise and cycling and family happiness, while big enough to allow massive social distancing. A place you could walk to and enjoy, from the town, without fear of infection.
It was the perfect asset during Covid. The town was lucky to have it. His stupid government tried to close it.
TBF to the good sane people of Wales, they realised Drakeford is a massive twat, and ignored the law. Even the guy who was instructed to drive around with a megaphone telling people to go home to the town where they could be more easily infected, said Yes this is absolutely stupid, and then he and I agreed to just wave at each other and say hi. From that moment on he drove around without even trying to enforce the rule and he turned his megaphone off.
The Cardiff government is even stupider than the London government