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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19 – politicalbetting
How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19 – politicalbetting.com
WH2020 Trump vs. Biden – latest trend chart of polling average from RCPhttps://t.co/C0fbCWD3oB pic.twitter.com/aMCOTeGvk9
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https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1313784259883171842
Given that it is Peston I guess it isn't going to happen?
Four years ago today, Wikileaks first published the leaked Clinton emails.
In the real world those people needed Starmer to stand up to the government when it counted, he's doing so now to get a soundbite on the news, to look like he's doing something about it knowing full well he passed up an opportunity to actually do something about it.
We know Boris is shite, no one is disputing that. We know the government has completely fucked up basically any kind of public health policy in regards to virus containment. Yet when it came down to it Labour didn't even bother voting against the bill which allowed the government to continue exactly as it had done for the previous six months. They just accepted the promise of votes from the same group of people happy to break the law.
As I said, Starmer is an empty vessel with empty words. Our political class has let the nation down time and again, and Starmer has proved he's part of it.
I agree the race has been stable, but I think because of the unusual nature of this race, there is a higher than normal chance of polling being off. So there's value at the margins.
Except there isn't value on Trump because he is weirdly over-rated as others have covered.
The only choices therefore are tighten them or let rip.
The evidence appears to be that spread in pubs and restaurants is relatively low
For all the drama of 2020 - the COVID crisis, the economic crisis, the Democratic primaries, Trump's illness etc - perhaps it's all noise. I increasingly feel that perhaps we'll look back in a couple of years time and say, "actually, almost everyone had decided pretty firmly by the end of his first year in office whether or not they could stomach eight years of Trump, and everything after that was just irrelevant passing the time until judgment day.
'He's all fart and no follow through.'
I am not saying let rip. Merely saying the status quo is the worst of all worlds.
I saw something similar the weekend before last in Birmingham.
In 2018 the Democrats got 60,572,245 votes, that was only 5 million less than the 65,853,514 votes Hillary got in the 2016 presidential election so there was huge Democrat turnout in 2018 to protest against Trump.
The Republicans however had much bigger problems getting their voters out in 2018 with Trump not on the ballot. Only 50,861,970 voted Republican in 2018, a huge 12 million less than the 62,984,828 votes Trump got in 2016.
So in short expect Trump's vote in November to be significantly higher than the Republicans got in 2018 but the Biden vote to be much closer to the Democratic vote in 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
If the polls were reversed, you need one of those space telescopes to find Joe Biden's chances of winning.
https://www.manchester.ac.uk/coronavirus/cases/
Would you also close schools and universities, where transmission rates are far higher?
No re gun owners - back in August it was reported that 40% of those who bought a gun in 2020 were new gun owners, or nearly 5 million Americans
https://www.nssf.org/first-time-gun-buyers-grow-to-nearly-5-million-in-2020/
From tomorrow morning all cafes and bars in the capital city and its surrounding region are being instructed to shut down for a month.
Drinking alcohol outdoors will also be banned.
The local rules come on top of new national rules, which limit the size of individual social bubbles to four people
Sure that has been curtailed as more people work from home, but the UK really is a small place and so trying to "isolate" the virus in one town just isn't going to work in the way it might in rural America where one big town is 100s of miles from the next and people are generally a lot less mobile.
He's woken up
Starmer displayed an unnecessary excess of caution. If he has genuine differences of policy with government, forcing (or at the very least trying to force) Parliamentary scrutiny rather than giving government carte blanche for months at a time out to be a no brainer.
(2.9 million people employed in hospitality – fourth biggest industry sector in the UK).
I thought for a moment I'd gone mad.
I haven't - it should be Biden +29.
A lot of the cases seem to be centred upon students and the return of universities spreading the virus like Freshers Flu, so that needs to be taken into account and not overreacted to.
Especially in Halls of Residences, or crammed blocks of student flats, putting hundreds of people from across the country to live together on top of each other is inevitably going to lead to transmission. But Freshers Flu burns out after a couple of weeks normally as everyone catches and gets over the viruses they catch from their new friends they now live with.
This is where exponential growth isn't appropriate. The hundred people who now live with each other in a block of flats or a Halls aren't suddenly going to be exponentially living with a different hundred each the week after.
Its entirely possible that local lockdowns are keeping a lid on infections, except for the spread within student communities.
Effectively I and Mrs Owl have put ourselves back in much stricter lockdown than even the local restrictions demand. Quick nip out to the supermarket and lots of outdoor walks is about it.
Now we are extremely fortunate to be in a position where we have space, can work from home and both are working for seemingly secure organisations at present but essentially we’ve shut the door and the world can bugger off for a few months.
Bishop Auckland: Pub shut-down imminent
Jacinda 1 Bozo 0
The only new meme going around for now is this one.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1313655008173404161
People circulating around each other is spreading the pox. The only way to squash the thing again is stop people circulating. My friends up in geordieland report from relatives that "the RVI is 2 weeks away from shutting itself down as the ICU will be overcapacity". Remember, stay home to save the NHS? Time to park the rule of 6 and replace it with stay home.
I've mentioned before that, in 2012, Obama did better in the election than in the final poll averages, and the Electoral College very slightly favoured the Democrat (i.e. a UNS sufficient to win Romney the popular vote would not quite have got him over the line to grab the Presidency).
Now clearly Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2012 and the more recent election has more weight as evidence - but the fact 2012 had a completely different pattern shouldn't simply be ignored as it so often is.
You are the one seemingly arguing for closure of a sector that provides three million people with their livelihood (disregarding the huge supply chain).
Regarding schools, no, simply because of the huge constraint that places on most parents' ability to work other than from home.
https://order-order.com/2020/10/07/exclusive-snp-planning-sober-october-semi-lockdown-plan/
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
I am offended that you have used a poem to describe how not speaking out leads to genocide as a response to my comment.
For a start my comment had absolutely nothing to do with not speaking out.
Secondly, I also want pubs and restaurants to be open. I want schools and universities to be open. We should be able have a proper discussion about the risks and costs of these heavy actions, without being implicitly accused of being a bigot against those in the hospitality trade.
And it demonstrates to the opposition the likelihood of actually winning a vote next time, by showing their strength.
I read every single crank article that got posted on here about the e-mails and every time it was absolutely nothing. Including flat out fabrications and lies about what the e-mails said.
As a result I became immune to the siren of these disinformation merchants and failed to appreciate what affect they might be having in aggregate.
Trumpton tied in TX and behind by a point in IO.
President: general election Texas
OCT 3-6, 2020
B/C
Civiqs
895 LV Biden
48%
48%
Trump EVEN
President: general election Iowa
OCT 3-6, 2020
B/C
Civiqs
756 LV Biden
48%
47%
Trump Biden +1
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-are-all-the-pubs-closing-ask-people-who-never-go-to-the-pub-200903051623
Apologies.
Now some pubs have already been required to close in the NE in the second wave local lockdowns, and are doing so with no further grants and under a furlough scheme to which they are now partially paying for and which is due to end altogether by the end of October. If this becomes the general pattern, the absence of targeted support is going to lead to widespread business closures.
France, Germany, Spain, and Italy are more reasonable nations for comparison.