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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19 – politicalbetting

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    MrEd said:
    Catching the bug and spreading it has killed off what little chance Trump still had. He now looks like a loser, and a mad loser at that.

    That was his final USP: he was a winner! Not any more.
    I am surprised by this actually, I thought he'd get a degree of sympathy for catching the virus. Boris certainly did here.
    Boris showed contrition, real contrition, thanked his medics profusely, praised the NHS to the hilt, acknowledged the science about the virus, got real and serious about the virus and changed his and his Government's response.

    Trump has done the exact opposite of all those things.
    Yes. About the only good moment, for Boris, during this pandemic, was his personal response to catching it. He made a couple of good speeches, he looked statesmanlike and gracious.

    Trump has acted like a selfish lunatic, wilfully exposing his poor minions to a deadly disease, and practically boasting about it.

    He's a fucking madman. I sometimes wonder if it would actually be Constitutional for the CIA to remove him by force, for the sake of the world.
    Yes, his response to it was the exact opposite of the approach he should have taken.

    Made me wonder for the first time ever whether he is just an old fool who got lucky once.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2020

    Nobody has this undercontrol hence todays measures in Scotland and indeed across Europe
    Exactly. Where is the virus 'under control.....??
    Within the British Isles, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.

    Neither have any internal controls - no masks, no social distancing, no curfews.

    Both have robust external controls - in Guernsey all arrivals have to self quarantine for 14 days and breaches can - and do - lead to fines up to £10,000. And robust testing capability. Guernsey will shortly be able to run the UK equivalent of 2 million tests a day.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898

    Biden must be confident mask wearing has broad political support.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1313844025296789505

    ... or maybe it's just the right thing to do.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,982

    MaxPB said:

    My word.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1313784259883171842

    Given that it is Peston I guess it isn't going to happen?

    Absolutely mental.
    Total lunacy if the government does that

    The evidence appears to be that spread in pubs and restaurants is relatively low
    Only 3% of infections if I recall correctly – of course, the authoritarians in the government like it because it makes them look strong and anti-fun.
    Over 20% of recent positive cases in Scotland reported exposure in hospitality venues - more than any other situation (even students mixing).
  • Nobody has this undercontrol hence todays measures in Scotland and indeed across Europe
    True, but few governments appear more out of control than Johnson and his hopeless band of toadies, incompetents and lightweights.
    The Scottish Government?

    Nobody has this undercontrol hence todays measures in Scotland and indeed across Europe
    True, but few governments appear more out of control than Johnson and his hopeless band of toadies, incompetents and lightweights.
    The Scottish Government?
    I wasn't including Parish Councils
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Incidentally, I noticed they started handing out free masks at the entrance to Sainsbury's this weekend, which I'd not seen before.

    Would be sensible policy at all large retailers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Rasmusson trending on twitter. 16k tweets so far.

  • Newcastle Venue the Wylam Brewery closes their tap room venue. The "Palace of Arts" was a thriving arts / music / weddings / events venue with a popular brewery tap room. Now shutting for the duration and laying off their staff

    Some key lines from their statement:

    "Since lockdown in March we have put the preservation of jobs at the forefront of our mission with the furloughing, flexi-furloughing and retention of all staff.

    Furlough ends on 31st October 2020 and the new ‘job protection’ scheme is not fit for purpose for the hospitality industry."

    https://www.wylambrewery.co.uk/what-a-load-of-pants/

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Liam Fox apparently out of the running for WTO job. (I mean, I don't think he was ever in the running, but he's not in the final two according to Bloomberg).
  • nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Newcastle Venue the Wylam Brewery closes their tap room venue. The "Palace of Arts" was a thriving arts / music / weddings / events venue with a popular brewery tap room. Now shutting for the duration and laying off their staff

    Some key lines from their statement:

    "Since lockdown in March we have put the preservation of jobs at the forefront of our mission with the furloughing, flexi-furloughing and retention of all staff.

    Furlough ends on 31st October 2020 and the new ‘job protection’ scheme is not fit for purpose for the hospitality industry."

    https://www.wylambrewery.co.uk/what-a-load-of-pants/

    Sunak needs to pay pubs to shut until March or let them trade fully and normally.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    When the people remove Trump from the White House there's the perfect place for him to live. Buffalo Bill's house is up for sale. It would suit him well.

    https://deadline.com/2020/10/the-silence-of-the-lambs-house-for-sale-1234591101/


  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    MrEd said:
    Catching the bug and spreading it has killed off what little chance Trump still had. He now looks like a loser, and a mad loser at that.

    That was his final USP: he was a winner! Not any more.
    I am surprised by this actually, I thought he'd get a degree of sympathy for catching the virus. Boris certainly did here.
    Boris showed contrition, real contrition, thanked his medics profusely, praised the NHS to the hilt, acknowledged the science about the virus, got real and serious about the virus and changed his and his Government's response.

    Trump has done the exact opposite of all those things.
    Yes. About the only good moment, for Boris, during this pandemic, was his personal response to catching it. He made a couple of good speeches, he looked statesmanlike and gracious.

    Trump has acted like a selfish lunatic, wilfully exposing his poor minions to a deadly disease, and practically boasting about it.

    He's a fucking madman. I sometimes wonder if it would actually be Constitutional for the CIA to remove him by force, for the sake of the world.
    Yes, his response to it was the exact opposite of the approach he should have taken.

    Made me wonder for the first time ever whether he is just an old fool who got lucky once.
    He was once, clearly, a clever man. Persuasive and articulate (albeit amoral, vain and greedy, and so on). He even had a certain charm (check out old interviews from the 1980s)

    It seems obvious to me that he is in steep cognitive decline, maybe even demented, so madness has been added to all those original character flaws, making for a deeply dangerous man, given his status.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Just the man to introduce a robust and effective system! Details to follow......

    https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1313870852413370368?s=20
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The national polls are looking horrific for Trump with several double digits leads for Biden recently, but state polls in the battleground states are not too bad for him and he could still get the 3% swing necessary to turn things around.

    Indeed, the key is Pence needs to win tonight's VP debate to steady the ship then Trump needs to look Presidential in the 2nd and 3rd debates and adopt a tone and message more appealing to the key swing voters he has lost to Biden ie suburban women and independent voters in particular
    :lol:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    I said this at the time.

    There was no misuse of data by CA.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    Biden must be confident mask wearing has broad political support.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1313844025296789505

    He only has the legal authority to do that on federal land and property . In terms of polling over 70% support mask mandates.
  • Nigelb said:

    Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada
    https://www.nber.org/papers/w27891#fromrss
    We estimate the impact of mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in Canada, including regulations on businesses and gatherings, school closures, travel and self-isolation, and long-term care homes. We partially account for behavioral responses using Google mobility data. Our identification approach exploits variation in the timing of indoor face mask mandates staggered over two months in the 34 public health regions in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. We find that, in the first few weeks after implementation, mask mandates are associated with a reduction of 25 percent in the weekly number of new COVID-19 cases. Additional analysis with province-level data provides corroborating evidence. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that mandating indoor masks nationwide in early July could have reduced the weekly number of new cases in Canada by 25 to 40 percent in mid-August, which translates into 700 to 1,100 fewer cases per week.

    That's very interesting.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The national polls are looking horrific for Trump with several double digits leads for Biden recently, but state polls in the battleground states are not too bad for him and he could still get the 3% swing necessary to turn things around.

    Indeed, the key is Pence needs to win tonight's VP debate to steady the ship then Trump needs to look Presidential in the 2nd and 3rd debates and adopt a tone and message more appealing to the key swing voters he has lost to Biden ie suburban women and independent voters in particular
    The 2nd and 3rd debates may not even happen.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK case by specimen date

    image
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    South Dakota (!) is being hailed as a control experiment for no lockdowns.

    Their governor got a storm of criticism from the media for not complying. Toughed it out. Now saying lockdowns are useless.

    Might well be worth a tenner for the repub nomination, one day.....Kristi Noem
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK cases by specimen data and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The national polls are looking horrific for Trump with several double digits leads for Biden recently, but state polls in the battleground states are not too bad for him and he could still get the 3% swing necessary to turn things around.

    Indeed, the key is Pence needs to win tonight's VP debate to steady the ship then Trump needs to look Presidential in the 2nd and 3rd debates and adopt a tone and message more appealing to the key swing voters he has lost to Biden ie suburban women and independent voters in particular
    The 2nd and 3rd debates may not even happen.
    I think Biden should do anything to avoid them. He needs to do nothing now except exactly what he is. Speaking where he can. Being seen wearing a face mask. Staying alive.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    MrEd said:
    Catching the bug and spreading it has killed off what little chance Trump still had. He now looks like a loser, and a mad loser at that.

    That was his final USP: he was a winner! Not any more.
    I am surprised by this actually, I thought he'd get a degree of sympathy for catching the virus. Boris certainly did here.
    Boris showed contrition, real contrition, thanked his medics profusely, praised the NHS to the hilt, acknowledged the science about the virus, got real and serious about the virus and changed his and his Government's response.

    Trump has done the exact opposite of all those things.
    Yes. About the only good moment, for Boris, during this pandemic, was his personal response to catching it. He made a couple of good speeches, he looked statesmanlike and gracious.

    Trump has acted like a selfish lunatic, wilfully exposing his poor minions to a deadly disease, and practically boasting about it.

    He's a fucking madman. I sometimes wonder if it would actually be Constitutional for the CIA to remove him by force, for the sake of the world.
    Yes, his response to it was the exact opposite of the approach he should have taken.

    Made me wonder for the first time ever whether he is just an old fool who got lucky once.
    He was once, clearly, a clever man. Persuasive and articulate (albeit amoral, vain and greedy, and so on). He even had a certain charm (check out old interviews from the 1980s)

    It seems obvious to me that he is in steep cognitive decline, maybe even demented, so madness has been added to all those original character flaws, making for a deeply dangerous man, given his status.


    He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder. I've been saying it on here for ages and got some grief for it.
    The classic symptoms scream Trump.
    Him having the virus, and his response to it, has revealed this to all but the most determined not to see it.

    Not sure how that formatting happened.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK Case summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    TimT said:

    Don't know if this has been posted yet, but another noteworthy - pushing the landslide narrative territory - poll

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519939-trump-statistically-tied-with-biden-in-arizona-district-he-won-by-11-points

    When seen in conjunction with this, not a good morning for Trump:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics/trump-tax-returns-subpoena-ruling/index.html

    Never expected to be so happy to see a man kicked when he's down. I'd be wary of that poll though. Doesn't pass the smell test in various respects.
    Thanks, Peter. I take most polls with a grain of salt, even the "gold standards". What is noteworthy to me about this is that it is The Hill publishing it. They are certainly right of centre, albeit way more Establishment than Trump, so there is that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    South Dakota (!) is being hailed as a control experiment for no lockdowns.

    Their governor got a storm of criticism from the media for not complying. Toughed it out. Now saying lockdowns are useless.

    Might well be worth a tenner for the repub nomination, one day.....Kristi Noem

    Yeah South Dakota, a state thats largest city has a population of less than 200k. What a useful control experiment that is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK deaths

    image
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    image
  • Liam Fox apparently out of the running for WTO job. (I mean, I don't think he was ever in the running, but he's not in the final two according to Bloomberg).

    Well I never, I mean there must be loads of other retired GPs who have as much knowledge of trade as the Disgraced Former Defence Secretary.

    Recently heard at an NHS GP surgery: "Excuse me, but are you qualified to inspect my haemorrhoids? You are really a doctor?" "Oh no, I am actually an official from the DTI, but I am sure I can look up what I need to know from this book"
  • Andy_JS said:

    The national polls are looking horrific for Trump with several double digits leads for Biden recently, but state polls in the battleground states are not too bad for him and he could still get the 3% swing necessary to turn things around.

    The Nationals were accurate in 2016, it was the State polls that were wrong. The extensive post mortems have done a good job of exposing the reasons. If the pollsters haven't changed their methods there is hope for Trump, as you indicate. If however the State pollsters have brought their methods in line with the Nationals it's hard to make a credible case for him.

    Nationals currently give Biden a 9 point lead. Knock off 4.5 for MoE, then bend over backwards and knock off another point for the amount they were out last time (ok it's not logical but I'm trying for him) and you are still 3.5 points down. It's too much. Even with a fair wind, he need to be down below 3.

    Serious question now. Do we think he is still trying to win? That last tweet was bizarre.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Liam Fox apparently out of the running for WTO job. (I mean, I don't think he was ever in the running, but he's not in the final two according to Bloomberg).

    Who are the final two? I have few quid on this.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Scott_xP said:
    For those who know these things, how do the hold ups in the US trials impact this vaccine's progress in other jurisdictions (UK, EU etc...)?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    Dumb Americans, dumb Americans, they are the dumb Americans ...

    But not nearly enough this time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Foxy said:

    Liam Fox apparently out of the running for WTO job. (I mean, I don't think he was ever in the running, but he's not in the final two according to Bloomberg).

    Who are the final two? I have few quid on this.

    Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala & South Korea's Yoo Myung-hee

    https://twitter.com/robyounguk/status/1313875912824365056
  • It's remarkable how Trump has taken on the mantle of Hillary Clinton, appearing elite and out of touch with ordinary Americans. The very thing which led him to win has gone.

    It will be a landslide.

    It is absolutely remarkable that a billionaire New York estate baron who keeps to his own family and tight circle has ended up being elite and out of touch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    Dumb Americans, dumb Americans, they are the dumb Americans ...

    But not nearly enough this time.
    Still enough to form Tea Party 2 or something similar assuming Biden wins
  • TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    For those who know these things, how do the hold ups in the US trials impact this vaccine's progress in other jurisdictions (UK, EU etc...)?
    It's the overall numbers. There will be trials in different countries but the evidence and data will be coalesced to give the results to be presented to the various regulatory bodies for approval.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    Liam Fox apparently out of the running for WTO job. (I mean, I don't think he was ever in the running, but he's not in the final two according to Bloomberg).

    Who are the final two? I have few quid on this.

    Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala & South Korea's Yoo Myung-hee

    https://twitter.com/robyounguk/status/1313875912824365056
    I have a fiver on Ngozi 🤞
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    For those who know these things, how do the hold ups in the US trials impact this vaccine's progress in other jurisdictions (UK, EU etc...)?
    It's restarted here and in Brazil. I think the vaccine regulator is just playing it ultra safe on the US because they already got burned by the flu vaccine all those years ago and they don't want to risk poisoning the well for a COVID vaccine before one is ready.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    How did you arrive at 12% for your total loon measure?

    (I think Trump's awful, but the Democrats found someone worse)
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    MaxPB said:

    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    For those who know these things, how do the hold ups in the US trials impact this vaccine's progress in other jurisdictions (UK, EU etc...)?
    It's restarted here and in Brazil. I think the vaccine regulator is just playing it ultra safe on the US because they already got burned by the flu vaccine all those years ago and they don't want to risk poisoning the well for a COVID vaccine before one is ready.
    Thanks, Max
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The national polls are looking horrific for Trump with several double digits leads for Biden recently, but state polls in the battleground states are not too bad for him and he could still get the 3% swing necessary to turn things around.

    Indeed, the key is Pence needs to win tonight's VP debate to steady the ship then Trump needs to look Presidential in the 2nd and 3rd debates and adopt a tone and message more appealing to the key swing voters he has lost to Biden ie suburban women and independent voters in particular
    The 2nd and 3rd debates may not even happen.
    I think Biden should do anything to avoid them. He needs to do nothing now except exactly what he is. Speaking where he can. Being seen wearing a face mask. Staying alive.
    Last 2 words are key. It's the biggest risk left. That he gets infected. Should not take even the tiniest chance of that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    dixiedean said:

    It seems obvious to me that he is in steep cognitive decline, maybe even demented, so madness has been added to all those original character flaws, making for a deeply dangerous man, given his status.

    He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder. I've been saying it on here for ages and got some grief for it.
    The classic symptoms scream Trump.
    Him having the virus, and his response to it, has revealed this to all but the most determined not to see it.

    Not sure how that formatting happened.

    All of that. But more bad than mad for me. If charged with the offence of "worst US President there has ever been or could ever be" he would not be able to claim diminished responsibility and get off with a cushy hospital gig.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    How did you arrive at 12% for your total loon measure?

    (I think Trump's awful, but the Democrats found someone worse)
    I suspect that Trump is even testing the diehard Republicans that would vote for "a pigs bladder on a stick" if it was endorsed by the GOP.

    Clearly Trump has a personal vote, but for many others he may be a twat, but he is still a Republican. Biden though is no threat to those.

    A landslide is what America needs, anything less and the conspiracy theorists will go even more bonkers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    How did you arrive at 12% for your total loon measure?

    (I think Trump's awful, but the Democrats found someone worse)
    :E Always one I guess.
  • And so what - just get the deal
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Foxy said:

    Liam Fox apparently out of the running for WTO job. (I mean, I don't think he was ever in the running, but he's not in the final two according to Bloomberg).

    Who are the final two? I have few quid on this.

    Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala & South Korea's Yoo Myung-hee

    https://twitter.com/robyounguk/status/1313875912824365056
    Oh bugger! I was hoping we would see the back of him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Perhaps, although perhaps we should wait to see what has unlocked it first? Particularly when people couldn't stop crowing about how he wasn't going to get any deal at all, implicitly presuming he wouldn't capitulate either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    There was nothing in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of state aid, there was a line in the 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of fisheries
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    And so what - just get the deal
    We hold all the cards!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020
    Or the EU did.

    Or more likely there was a compromise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 2020

    And so what - just get the deal
    We hold all the cards!
    I am beyond caring over point scoring - just do a deal
  • Biden must be confident mask wearing has broad political support.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1313844025296789505

    Not only can't he do that, its up to individual states, the last sentence can be read two different ways!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Great British public. Odds not a strong suit:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1313881672425893889?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    kle4 said:

    Perhaps, although perhaps we should wait to see what has unlocked it first? Particularly when people couldn't stop crowing about how he wasn't going to get any deal at all, implicitly presuming he wouldn't capitulate either.
    Well Johnson has more than suggested that he would countenance no deal rather than accept the EU red lines.

    I am quite happy for him to capitulate to his hearts content, but if he does it means he lied.
  • TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Don't know if this has been posted yet, but another noteworthy - pushing the landslide narrative territory - poll

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519939-trump-statistically-tied-with-biden-in-arizona-district-he-won-by-11-points

    When seen in conjunction with this, not a good morning for Trump:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics/trump-tax-returns-subpoena-ruling/index.html

    Never expected to be so happy to see a man kicked when he's down. I'd be wary of that poll though. Doesn't pass the smell test in various respects.
    Thanks, Peter. I take most polls with a grain of salt, even the "gold standards". What is noteworthy to me about this is that it is The Hill publishing it. They are certainly right of centre, albeit way more Establishment than Trump, so there is that.
    Yeah, but the problem isn't their political orientation. There's sample size for a start but more significant to me is that they are polling in an affluent area. This is exactly where you would expect to find Shy Trump Voter Syndrome. Nationally STVS is insignificant after netting out against its mirror image Shy Biden Voter Syndrome, but of course in a single County poll, it could be substantial.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    Dumb Americans, dumb Americans, they are the dumb Americans ...

    But not nearly enough this time.
    Still enough to form Tea Party 2 or something similar assuming Biden wins
    Yes, it will be interesting what happens with him and his base post defeat. Neither will be minded to shut up, I wouldn't have thought. If I were the "Authorities" I would look to assemble a solid case against him for something criminal that would put him away and then I would cut a deal.

    "Donald, we have you. It's 15 years minimum. But, look, here's an offer and it's take it or leave it. We won't prosecute if you undertake to retire to Florida, play golf, and be very very quiet. No media, no business, no politics. Applies to the whole family."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    And so what - just get the deal
    We hold all the cards!
    I am beyond caring over point scoring - just do a deal
    My point BigG, is if we accede to the EU'S every whim, what was the point of Brexit in the first place, except as a vehicle to propel Johnson to Prime Minister.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639



    Regarding universities, the decision to allow students to return to campuses ranks right up there with some of the worst decisions taken during the epidemic. Yes to try and rescue the situation I would look to a managed shutdown now of halls of residences for those with a home to return to, subject to testing immediately prior to return. Teaching to continue online, practical work postponed until 2021.

    Regarding schools, no, simply because of the huge constraint that places on most parents' ability to work other than from home.

    If students wish to return from Halls of Residence to their parent's house, they should be allowed to. I bet almost all won't.

    The assumption that every student has a large comfortable bedroom in a house with supportive parents is clearly wrong. Many students do not, and many will find it easier to work at their University town rather than home.

    Note almost every Western country has allowed students back to their Universities (including Wales where Labour is in power), and almost all the teaching is already online.

    However, as far as I am concerned, if students wish to return home, they should be let off any rent obligations and be permitted to do so. I don't believe many will. If the tuition is significantly compromised by being online (as it is in some subjects), then students deserve a partial rebate.
    In Scotland the Government enacted some such immunity for students back in, IIRC, April.
  • kle4 said:

    Perhaps, although perhaps we should wait to see what has unlocked it first? Particularly when people couldn't stop crowing about how he wasn't going to get any deal at all, implicitly presuming he wouldn't capitulate either.
    Well Johnson has more than suggested that he would countenance no deal rather than accept the EU red lines.

    I am quite happy for him to capitulate to his hearts content, but if he does it means he lied.
    Fisheries is a political hot potato - most people will have heard about retaining control of our fish. Who actual understands the level playing field issues?

    It is negotiation by focus group.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    How did you arrive at 12% for your total loon measure?

    (I think Trump's awful, but the Democrats found someone worse)
    I suspect that Trump is even testing the diehard Republicans that would vote for "a pigs bladder on a stick" if it was endorsed by the GOP.

    Clearly Trump has a personal vote, but for many others he may be a twat, but he is still a Republican. Biden though is no threat to those.

    A landslide is what America needs, anything less and the conspiracy theorists will go even more bonkers.
    Yes, this needs to be big for many reasons, including that one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    Dumb Americans, dumb Americans, they are the dumb Americans ...

    But not nearly enough this time.
    Still enough to form Tea Party 2 or something similar assuming Biden wins
    Yes, it will be interesting what happens with him and his base post defeat. Neither will be minded to shut up, I wouldn't have thought. If I were the "Authorities" I would look to assemble a solid case against him for something criminal that would put him away and then I would cut a deal.

    "Donald, we have you. It's 15 years minimum. But, look, here's an offer and it's take it or leave it. We won't prosecute if you undertake to retire to Florida, play golf, and be very very quiet. No media, no business, no politics. Applies to the whole family."
    His base will not be going anywhere even if they put him away for life, in that case they would just make him a Martyr for them
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:
    That is a huge shame. They are delicious with wine and cheese. As used to be written on the packets.
  • Stuart Armstrong, Kieran Tierney and Ryan Christie will all miss Scotland's Euro 2020 play-off semi-final against Israel on Thursday after the former tested positive for Covid-19.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Any explanations on how China is now basically back to normal? Have they innoculated vast swathes of the population?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8809987/Coronavirus-Chinese-tourist-attractions-swamped-hordes-people-snub-social-distancing.html
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited October 2020
    The poll number that should terrify the GOP in its rush to get Barrett onto the Supreme Court .

    Latest poll 61% do not want the SC to overturn Obamacare .

    GOP Senators in tight races who vote for her will be attacked by Dems as effectively voting to overturn that and with it the coverage for pre-existing conditions.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    LadyG said:

    Right now the UK is actually top of the New Daily Cases League: truly world beating

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    Different update times. Still not great but hey.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 2020

    And so what - just get the deal
    We hold all the cards!
    I am beyond caring over point scoring - just do a deal
    My point BigG, is if we accede to the EU'S every whim, what was the point of Brexit in the first place, except as a vehicle to propel Johnson to Prime Minister.
    Let us wait to see the deal but Boris was not PM when the referendum took place
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    RobD said:
    But Carole said...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    HYUFD said:

    There was nothing in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of state aid, there was a line in the 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of fisheries
    State aid is a Cummings obsession.
  • kle4 said:

    Perhaps, although perhaps we should wait to see what has unlocked it first? Particularly when people couldn't stop crowing about how he wasn't going to get any deal at all, implicitly presuming he wouldn't capitulate either.
    Well Johnson has more than suggested that he would countenance no deal rather than accept the EU red lines.

    I am quite happy for him to capitulate to his hearts content, but if he does it means he lied.
    Fisheries is a political hot potato - most people will have heard about retaining control of our fish. Who actual understands the level playing field issues?

    It is negotiation by focus group.
    A lot of people understand the concept that British laws should be set in Britain.

    What the EU were demanding originally on State Aid was absolutely unacceptable but there is definitely scope for a reasonable compromise.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Nicola Sturgeon "forgot" about a meeting with an aide to Alex Salmond

    Here's what she "forgot"

    "For context, I think the meeting took place not long after the weekly session of FMQs and in the midst of a busy day in which I would have been dealing with a multitude of other matters.

    "However, from what I recall, the discussion covered the fact that Alex Salmond wanted to see me urgently about a serious matter, and I think it did cover the suggestion that the matter might relate to allegations of a sexual nature."

    Yes, clearly that's the kind of meeting you would very quickly forget. Being told that your former boss, the ex First Minister of Scotland, was facing serious allegations of a sexual nature. Pff. Sort of thing you hear every day,



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54439758
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:
    That is a huge shame. They are delicious with wine and cheese. As used to be written on the packets.
    Spoxwoman on r4: they have just paused them, because they are a dinner party thing and nobody is having dps.
  • Any explanations on how China is now basically back to normal? Have they innoculated vast swathes of the population?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8809987/Coronavirus-Chinese-tourist-attractions-swamped-hordes-people-snub-social-distancing.html

    They locked down hard and contained and suppressed the virus.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Pulpstar said:

    Omnium said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    How did you arrive at 12% for your total loon measure?

    (I think Trump's awful, but the Democrats found someone worse)
    :E Always one I guess.
    Perhaps you're trying to be rude. If so then you're not doing it very well are you? I'd suggest anyway that being rude is a bad idea. Should you wish to persist though then getting it right is a must.

    Do let me know if you need any further tips.
  • HYUFD said:

    There was nothing in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of state aid, there was a line in the 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of fisheries
    State aid is a Cummings obsession.
    It may be very important post covid
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    Dumb Americans, dumb Americans, they are the dumb Americans ...

    But not nearly enough this time.
    Still enough to form Tea Party 2 or something similar assuming Biden wins
    Yes, it will be interesting what happens with him and his base post defeat. Neither will be minded to shut up, I wouldn't have thought. If I were the "Authorities" I would look to assemble a solid case against him for something criminal that would put him away and then I would cut a deal.

    "Donald, we have you. It's 15 years minimum. But, look, here's an offer and it's take it or leave it. We won't prosecute if you undertake to retire to Florida, play golf, and be very very quiet. No media, no business, no politics. Applies to the whole family."
    His base will not be going anywhere even if they put him away for life, in that case they would just make him a Martyr for them
    No exactly, that's what I'm saying. Do NOT put him away. Force him and the rest of the clan out of the picture with the threat of it. Then the base will have to find an alternative. Odds are it will be somebody less electorally dangerous this time.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Liam Fox apparently out of the running for WTO job. (I mean, I don't think he was ever in the running, but he's not in the final two according to Bloomberg).

    Who are the final two? I have few quid on this.

    Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala & South Korea's Yoo Myung-hee

    https://twitter.com/robyounguk/status/1313875912824365056
    I have a fiver on Ngozi 🤞
    Is her plan to explain to Liam Fox how the WTO works using crayons so that he finally understands it?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,363
    edited October 2020

    Any explanations on how China is now basically back to normal? Have they innoculated vast swathes of the population?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8809987/Coronavirus-Chinese-tourist-attractions-swamped-hordes-people-snub-social-distancing.html

    The virus has been virtually eradicated there by the use of highly efficient testing, tracking and quarantining, unhindered by consideration of human rights or privacy laws. Or they are lying. I think mostly the former, and maybe some of the latter.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Any explanations on how China is now basically back to normal?

    In a word, lockdowns.

    Have you been asleep or on another planet for most of the year?
  • HYUFD said:

    There was nothing in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of state aid, there was a line in the 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of fisheries
    State aid is a Cummings obsession.
    It may be very important post covid
    Having the EU able to unilaterally reject our laws or budgets is patently unacceptable.

    A reasonable FTA compromise should be achievable though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    HYUFD said:

    There was nothing in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of state aid, there was a line in the 2019 Tory manifesto about regaining control of fisheries
    State aid is a Cummings obsession.
    He thinks the state can build a British rival to Google. Probably powered by an Excel spreadsheet.
  • Any explanations on how China is now basically back to normal? Have they innoculated vast swathes of the population?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8809987/Coronavirus-Chinese-tourist-attractions-swamped-hordes-people-snub-social-distancing.html

    Highly efficient testing, tracking and quarantining, unhindered by consideration of human rights or privacy laws.
    Or popularity or a media.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    kle4 said:

    Perhaps, although perhaps we should wait to see what has unlocked it first? Particularly when people couldn't stop crowing about how he wasn't going to get any deal at all, implicitly presuming he wouldn't capitulate either.
    Well Johnson has more than suggested that he would countenance no deal rather than accept the EU red lines.

    I am quite happy for him to capitulate to his hearts content, but if he does it means he lied.
    Fisheries is a political hot potato - most people will have heard about retaining control of our fish. Who actual understands the level playing field issues?

    It is negotiation by focus group.
    Yes agree. Arcane regulations on state subsidies will be tomorrow’s chip paper, fishing is far more visible on the news channels (shots of boats, nets, fishermen etc etc play better than shots of office blocks and lawyers), even though it’s an economic minnow (so to speak).

    Now Macron’s hanging tough on fish for all the same reasons but it’s probably the area where he will really come under pressure from the other 26 if that’s the last block to a deal. Only 7 or 8 states have any interest at all directly in U.K. fishing grounds and some of them must be a handful of boats ( Belgium? Sweden?). So it shouldn’t be beyond the wit to bribe ( sorry compensate) Macron and his fleet with use of “EU structural adjustment payments”, and a sliding scale upwards on UK quotas over 3/4 years so the Tories can go to Grimsby and declare a ( probably genuinely here) win of sorts. Macron can flash the cash to buy some salty seafarers of Boulogne off handsomely and we all move forwards.
  • 21 covid deaths in Royal Glamorgan Hospital who did not pick it up in the community, but in the hospital itself
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    MaxPB said:

    TimT said:

    Scott_xP said:
    For those who know these things, how do the hold ups in the US trials impact this vaccine's progress in other jurisdictions (UK, EU etc...)?
    It's restarted here and in Brazil. I think the vaccine regulator is just playing it ultra safe on the US because they already got burned by the flu vaccine all those years ago and they don't want to risk poisoning the well for a COVID vaccine before one is ready.
    The US news doesn't seem as bad as it might first appear. https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/06/astrazeneca-covid19-second-dose-trial-vaccine/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    New Rasmussen national poll is a shocker for Trump .

    Biden 52

    Trump 40

    Amazes me that 40% of Americans could think of voting for that lunatic.
    Dumb Americans, dumb Americans, they are the dumb Americans ...

    But not nearly enough this time.
    Still enough to form Tea Party 2 or something similar assuming Biden wins
    Yes, it will be interesting what happens with him and his base post defeat. Neither will be minded to shut up, I wouldn't have thought. If I were the "Authorities" I would look to assemble a solid case against him for something criminal that would put him away and then I would cut a deal.

    "Donald, we have you. It's 15 years minimum. But, look, here's an offer and it's take it or leave it. We won't prosecute if you undertake to retire to Florida, play golf, and be very very quiet. No media, no business, no politics. Applies to the whole family."
    His base will not be going anywhere even if they put him away for life, in that case they would just make him a Martyr for them
    If he loses the election, the news the following day will be that no professional politician ever supported him except for reasons of party loyalty.
  • Any explanations on how China is now basically back to normal? Have they innoculated vast swathes of the population?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8809987/Coronavirus-Chinese-tourist-attractions-swamped-hordes-people-snub-social-distancing.html

    Highly efficient testing, tracking and quarantining, unhindered by consideration of human rights or privacy laws.
    Or popularity or a media.
    Those too.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Almost fell off my chair when I saw the most recent Rasmussen Poll. +12 Biden from Ras is... yikes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    The Great British public. Odds not a strong suit:

    Carlotta Vance. Brains not a prominent feature.
  • Chris said:

    The Great British public. Odds not a strong suit:

    Carlotta Vance. Brains not a prominent feature.
    Referee! That was a bit OTT. :open_mouth:
  • OnboardG1 said:

    Almost fell off my chair when I saw the most recent Rasmussen Poll. +12 Biden from Ras is... yikes.

    Another rat leaving the sinking ship?
This discussion has been closed.