I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think you misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think you misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
Bet she`s shitting herself about going up against that razor-sharp wit and intellectual tour de force that is Mike Pence.
The perspex screens are there to prevent Pence accidentally committing adultery.
I bought shares in the company that owns perspex at 925p during lockdown, and they are now 1370p. Unfortunately I got out at £11
Which is a good investment result.
I was thinking about matters such as this recently. Suppose you had bought bitcoin at a few cents, as they were once.
When would you have got out? When they were $100, meaning a 10,000x return? Or $1,000? Or at the peak of what was it $20,000, or at the then dip of $5,000 or....
So with a harsher lockdown, say pubs closing, no household mixing, granny doesn't get a hug.
What is the difference between this, for granny, if a bunch of 20-30yr olds minus those who must associate with vulnerable people are down the pub?
The difference for granny is that she is far, far less likely under the harsher lockdown to get the virus than if there is no lockdown. Especially if she needs any form of care which probably comes from 20-30 year olds.
If the virus is rife in the community then the people who care for the elderly will be infected and even with PPE will pass it on to the elderly.
You can argue its a price worth paying, but don't pretend please there's no difference. There absolutely is.
How so? Her carers aren't forced to go down the pub. They will take more care. But they might get the virus on the bus. Yes indeed they might and that is a difference. So work to make public transport safer by mask compliance and sanitation measures.
The question then becomes - is the chance of a carer getting the virus on public transport large enough to lock down a whole city.
If you think her carers, often working on minimum wage, will not be living their own lives when off the clock then that is entirely naive.
Do you honestly think that a young 20-something care worker on minimum wage never goes to the pub or does anything else same as everyone else their age?
So pay them not to, it's cheaper to do this than destroy a whole industry.
That is 1.5 million people. Approximately 1,500,000 work in adult social care. How much are you going to pay that 1.5 million people not to socialise at all?
And how are you going to enforce that? Are we going to tag them all? Put ankle bracelets on them?
Furthermore what about their boyfriends/girlfriends/husbands/wives/children etc? Their friends? Their relatives they mingle with? When they go to the shops?
PS how much would you need to be paid to agree not to socialise at all with friends and family?
BUT THEY DON'T SOCIALISE IN LOCKDOWN EITHER!
Jeez Louise.
Yes the only way to stop them from socialising is having a lockdown.
If there's no lockdown, they will socialise.
Pay them lots of money not to. It's cheaper than lockdown.
How much? How much will you pay them not to socialise? Remembering that it is 1.5 million people we are talking about, how much do you think it is appropriate to pay someone not to socialise while everyone else can?
And does that extend to their partners and children and family and friends too? How would it work?
I'm not trying to be awkward, if you've got an answer I'd love to hear it. It just seems to me to be implausible.
How does an extra £10k sound, tax free. With the 1.5m number (which is actually closer to 1m) that's £15bn, the cost of lockdown is 20x that figure.
(1) There is no long-term "let it rip" strategy, because after a few weeks of "let it rip", then population locks themselves down anyway. People (except perhaps the 18 to 24 demographic) don't go out and socialise if they think there's a serious risk of catching CV19.
This is why places like Georgia (in the US) which removed pretty much all restrictions haven't performed appreciably better economically, and have still seen cases - after an initial "let it rip" - come down.
(2) Sweden does not have a "let it rip" strategy. Instead it had a perfectly sensible set of long-term R minimisation strategies (school and university are virtual for 16 and up - yes, even now), encourage working from home, table service only at bars and restaurants, prohibitions on high risk events. Most shops - especially in Stockholm - require mask wearing, and it is common (but far from universal) on public transport. Sweden's strategy has been a largely voluntary lockdown, and one that has avoided big swings in restrictions.
The most sensible way forward - as I've said for, ooohhhh..., about six months now is a consistent set of restrictions on the highest risk activities that people can live with and adjust to.
This, by the way, has also been the strategy in Japan, which - especially given its dense urban population - has probably performed by far the best of any major advanced economy.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
All the talk of how well New Zealand have done. I actually think Australia is far more impressive. They are a large country, lots of travel from all around the world, especially to and from China, and have several very large dense cities.
And the most recent outbreak was due to something outside of the government control i.e. security staff bonking hotel guests. The logic was sound of ensuring arrivals quarantine.
Other countries have also done well.
The nonsense that the only way to avoid our current purgatory is by giving up and stoically accepting tens, or hundreds, of thousands more dead is dangerous. We can do better.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance would go down all that well.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance are a necessary condition for a successful test, trace and isolate scheme. I find it hard to believe that it should be beyond the collective capabilities of democracies to devise such a system.
Regarding universities, the decision to allow students to return to campuses ranks right up there with some of the worst decisions taken during the epidemic. Yes to try and rescue the situation I would look to a managed shutdown now of halls of residences for those with a home to return to, subject to testing immediately prior to return. Teaching to continue online, practical work postponed until 2021.
Regarding schools, no, simply because of the huge constraint that places on most parents' ability to work other than from home.
If students wish to return from Halls of Residence to their parent's house, they should be allowed to. I bet almost all won't.
The assumption that every student has a large comfortable bedroom in a house with supportive parents is clearly wrong. Many students do not, and many will find it easier to work at their University town rather than home.
Note almost every Western country has allowed students back to their Universities (including Wales where Labour is in power), and almost all the teaching is already online.
However, as far as I am concerned, if students wish to return home, they should be let off any rent obligations and be permitted to do so. I don't believe many will. If the tuition is significantly compromised by being online (as it is in some subjects), then students deserve a partial rebate.
I didn't make the assumption that "every student has a large comfortable bedroom in a house with supportive parents" which is why I was careful to use the wording "with a home to return to". However, very few students spend 12 months of the year on campus. Halls of residence need to remain open only for those who can demonstrate that they have "good reason" to remain, leading to few opportunities for large scale socialising or unavoidable mixing in densely populated blocks of communal accommodation. The rest should be required to go back after testing. The only real argument for students to stay put is the questionmark over whether our testing system is sufficiently robust to prevent the spreading of the virus back into their family home, which I admit is a moot point.
Once you take the decision to move 100% to online tuition, working from home is just as practical as working from a small bedroom in communal accommodation a mile from your lecture theatre. These are after all people who were perfectly capable of working at their family home outside of school lessons when studying for A levels so it's hardly a novel experience.
I get frustrated that some don't realise there are elements of a lot of Uni courses that cannot be taught exclusively online, notably in the sciences and engineering.
(1) There is no long-term "let it rip" strategy, because after a few weeks of "let it rip", then population locks themselves down anyway. People (except perhaps the 18 to 24 demographic) don't go out and socialise if they think there's a serious risk of catching CV19.
This is why places like Georgia (in the US) which removed pretty much all restrictions haven't performed appreciably better economically, and have still seen cases - after an initial "let it rip" - come down.
(2) Sweden does not have a "let it rip" strategy. Instead it had a perfectly sensible set of long-term R minimisation strategies (school and university are virtual for 16 and up - yes, even now), encourage working from home, table service only at bars and restaurants, prohibitions on high risk events. Most shops - especially in Stockholm - require mask wearing, and it is common (but far from universal) on public transport. Sweden's strategy has been a largely voluntary lockdown, and one that has avoided big swings in restrictions.
The most sensible way forward - as I've said for, ooohhhh..., about six months now is a consistent set of restrictions on the highest risk activities that people can live with and adjust to.
This, by the way, has also been the strategy in Japan, which - especially given its dense urban population - has probably performed by far the best of any major advanced economy.
"let it rip" is just a caricature of the opinion of those who think the restrictions are too severe. Like when people say that those who want stricter immigration controls "hate foreigners"
Scotland - LOL pubs open 6am to 6pm only! Let's all get pissed in the daytime instead!
No, they won't be serving alcohol at all.
Let's see how 'temporary' the 16 day closure is!
Yes. Experience shows that these lockdowns get extended, and extended. The Scottish govt probably knows that they may need these rules in place for many weeks, but can't admit it as too many Glaswegians will hang themselves.
Imagine a Glasgow winter with no pubs. Cold darkness of December, freezing empty streets, everyone hiding at home. My God.
No old firm games!
All the pubs will shut as there will not be enough business between 6-6 but by doing this the Scottish Government will not have to put a financial package in place to help the staff as they can open.
Indeed. It will be too depressing to go to a pub "for coffee" and too cold to sit outside so the pubs will close, as no one will turn up.
And people think she is decent, she should have shut the pubs and helped the staff.
There's a £40m package to help these businesses
What is it then? Will it help the staff who are now not getting paid
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think you misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I am aware of that world but @LadyG didn't mention the socio-economic status of his mate who lost his business.
Although I am with you absolutely on the very comfortable PB world where we can lockdown indefinitely because actually things are fine as long as the AGA doesn't go out or the walks get too muddy.
All the talk of how well New Zealand have done. I actually think Australia is far more impressive. They are a large country, lots of travel from all around the world, especially to and from China, and have several very large dense cities.
And the most recent outbreak was due to something outside of the government control i.e. security staff bonking hotel guests. The logic was sound of ensuring arrivals quarantine.
Other countries have also done well.
The nonsense that the only way to avoid our current purgatory is by giving up and stoically accepting tens, or hundreds, of thousands more dead is dangerous. We can do better.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance would go down all that well.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance are a necessary condition for a successful test, trace and isolate scheme. I find it hard to believe that it should be beyond the collective capabilities of democracies to devise such a system.
It isn't that its impossible, it is whether western societies will accept it.
The big question is whether behaviours been changed enough to stop cases from continuing at their current trajectory, or even reverse course?
It looked for a while like the rule of six might be having some effect, but it turns out that was just a data blip.
Sadly, I don't think the motivation for enough people to change behaviour will occurs until either:
1) Draconian rules are imposed, harming many businesses unfairly with less compensation 2) Hospitalisations and deaths rise to unsustainable levels (bringing back the "Save the NHS" mantra of April)
I hope we're able to avoid both, but it looks difficult from where we're starting.
I think there is an effect of the rule of six, plus the general ramping up of the rhetoric, to be seen in the ONS data and the ZOE ap data. These show a stabilising, or slowing of the rate of increase. Not yet a decline.
Family clusters and family and friends gatherings do show a recent decline in Scotland in September.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think you misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
To be fair, they are bloody good chairs.
True.
But there is a moment when you should think about the difference between working for a company that buys you a 1K chair, and the jobs that don't pay that in a month.
The chap in question got a nice middle class job in the end - lucky break, via a friend. Went from a minimum wage, dead end, part time, job in a failing business in a shithole to working full time, PAYE, for an international company, in plush offices in a landscaped, high end, business park in the nice part of town.
His descriptions of the difference between bottom end jobs vs Herman Miller world would make an interesting story, I reckon.
All the talk of how well New Zealand have done. I actually think Australia is far more impressive. They are a large country, lots of travel from all around the world, especially to and from China, and have several very large dense cities.
And the most recent outbreak was due to something outside of the government control i.e. security staff bonking hotel guests. The logic was sound of ensuring arrivals quarantine.
Other countries have also done well.
The nonsense that the only way to avoid our current purgatory is by giving up and stoically accepting tens, or hundreds, of thousands more dead is dangerous. We can do better.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance would go down all that well.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance are a necessary condition for a successful test, trace and isolate scheme. I find it hard to believe that it should be beyond the collective capabilities of democracies to devise such a system.
It isn't that its impossible, it is whether western societies will accept it.
Isn't it tracking by GPS and via credit card purchases?
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
What percentage chance would you put for a Trump win at this point in time?
Bet she`s shitting herself about going up against that razor-sharp wit and intellectual tour de force that is Mike Pence.
The perspex screens are there to prevent Pence accidentally committing adultery.
I bought shares in the company that owns perspex at 925p during lockdown, and they are now 1370p. Unfortunately I got out at £11
Nice one. What is the name of the company?
Schweiter Technologies
Thanks I`ll look at that. I`ve been teetering on the edge of buying some Regeneron Pharmaceuticals shares.
Regeneron are based here in Tarrytown/Sleepy Hollow. They are a solid firm with a good reputation in their field. They'd be a good long-term investment even if Covid hadn't happened.
Bet she`s shitting herself about going up against that razor-sharp wit and intellectual tour de force that is Mike Pence.
The perspex screens are there to prevent Pence accidentally committing adultery.
I bought shares in the company that owns perspex at 925p during lockdown, and they are now 1370p. Unfortunately I got out at £11
Which is a good investment result.
I was thinking about matters such as this recently. Suppose you had bought bitcoin at a few cents, as they were once.
When would you have got out? When they were $100, meaning a 10,000x return? Or $1,000? Or at the peak of what was it $20,000, or at the then dip of $5,000 or....
I believe edmundintokyo got in early on the Bitcoin sleigh ride...
Good question on Twitter: why has Sturgeon banned drinking in restaurants? What difference does it make if you have a glass of wine with your roast lamb??
This seems to be puritanism for the sake of it.
At the moment the more annoyed people in Scotland are, the more they blame Johnson for it, and the more they think Independence will save them.
All the talk of how well New Zealand have done. I actually think Australia is far more impressive. They are a large country, lots of travel from all around the world, especially to and from China, and have several very large dense cities.
And the most recent outbreak was due to something outside of the government control i.e. security staff bonking hotel guests. The logic was sound of ensuring arrivals quarantine.
Other countries have also done well.
The nonsense that the only way to avoid our current purgatory is by giving up and stoically accepting tens, or hundreds, of thousands more dead is dangerous. We can do better.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance would go down all that well.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance are a necessary condition for a successful test, trace and isolate scheme. I find it hard to believe that it should be beyond the collective capabilities of democracies to devise such a system.
It isn't that its impossible, it is whether western societies will accept it.
Isn't it tracking by GPS and via credit card purchases?
And CCTV, transport usage and looking through all electronic payments etc. It really is the government looking into your whole life.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think you misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
To be fair, they are bloody good chairs.
Bought one for my home office. Full on Aeron, none of that budget shite.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think you misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I am aware of that world but @LadyG didn't mention the socio-economic status of his mate who lost his business.
Although I am with you absolutely on the very comfortable PB world where we can lockdown indefinitely because actually things are fine as long as the AGA doesn't go out or the walks get too muddy.
Well, if the Premier Cru Chablis* runs out, I'm going to go postal.
*The Grand Cru is running low, but I will be brave.
(1) There is no long-term "let it rip" strategy, because after a few weeks of "let it rip", then population locks themselves down anyway. People (except perhaps the 18 to 24 demographic) don't go out and socialise if they think there's a serious risk of catching CV19.
This is why places like Georgia (in the US) which removed pretty much all restrictions haven't performed appreciably better economically, and have still seen cases - after an initial "let it rip" - come down.
(2) Sweden does not have a "let it rip" strategy. Instead it had a perfectly sensible set of long-term R minimisation strategies (school and university are virtual for 16 and up - yes, even now), encourage working from home, table service only at bars and restaurants, prohibitions on high risk events. Most shops - especially in Stockholm - require mask wearing, and it is common (but far from universal) on public transport. Sweden's strategy has been a largely voluntary lockdown, and one that has avoided big swings in restrictions.
The most sensible way forward - as I've said for, ooohhhh..., about six months now is a consistent set of restrictions on the highest risk activities that people can live with and adjust to.
This, by the way, has also been the strategy in Japan, which - especially given its dense urban population - has probably performed by far the best of any major advanced economy.
Potd - I increasingly cannot be bothered with this site as it has become infested with moaners and whingers who simply cannot accept that this virus has irrevocably changed the way we have to live for at least the next year or so. I agree that high risk non-essential activities must be closed or curbed and the staff / owners compensated as best the country can afford. Universities should probably be c,osed except for on-line teaching and sensible restrictions followed in schhols and workplaces. Mask wearing should be pretty well compulsory in all indoor settings and outdoors too where distancing is impractical. This way infections can be minimised and the vulnerable protected. It really is not the end of the world to do without pubs and cinemas for a while. FFS people get a grip... or the covid grip[e] - your choice.
All the talk of how well New Zealand have done. I actually think Australia is far more impressive. They are a large country, lots of travel from all around the world, especially to and from China, and have several very large dense cities.
And the most recent outbreak was due to something outside of the government control i.e. security staff bonking hotel guests. The logic was sound of ensuring arrivals quarantine.
Other countries have also done well.
The nonsense that the only way to avoid our current purgatory is by giving up and stoically accepting tens, or hundreds, of thousands more dead is dangerous. We can do better.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance would go down all that well.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance are a necessary condition for a successful test, trace and isolate scheme. I find it hard to believe that it should be beyond the collective capabilities of democracies to devise such a system.
It isn't that its impossible, it is whether western societies will accept it.
Isn't it tracking by GPS and via credit card purchases?
And CCTV, transport usage and looking through all electronic payments etc. It really is the government looking into your whole life.
(1) There is no long-term "let it rip" strategy, because after a few weeks of "let it rip", then population locks themselves down anyway. People (except perhaps the 18 to 24 demographic) don't go out and socialise if they think there's a serious risk of catching CV19.
This is why places like Georgia (in the US) which removed pretty much all restrictions haven't performed appreciably better economically, and have still seen cases - after an initial "let it rip" - come down.
(2) Sweden does not have a "let it rip" strategy. Instead it had a perfectly sensible set of long-term R minimisation strategies (school and university are virtual for 16 and up - yes, even now), encourage working from home, table service only at bars and restaurants, prohibitions on high risk events. Most shops - especially in Stockholm - require mask wearing, and it is common (but far from universal) on public transport. Sweden's strategy has been a largely voluntary lockdown, and one that has avoided big swings in restrictions.
The most sensible way forward - as I've said for, ooohhhh..., about six months now is a consistent set of restrictions on the highest risk activities that people can live with and adjust to.
This, by the way, has also been the strategy in Japan, which - especially given its dense urban population - has probably performed by far the best of any major advanced economy.
Yes. What we are doing now isn't working. And we are not Sweden nor Japan. A similar group of people who have spent 40 years scoffing at their communitarianism suddenly believes we can magically become them. But, of course without all the social protections which make Sweden Sweden. Nor the conformity which makes Japan Japan. We are heading for a second lockdown either de jure or de facto.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
What percentage chance would you put for a Trump win at this point in time?
First off I have really not taken a keen interest or paid much attention to the minutiae of the US election. It is a land far away and I couldn't give a rat's arse who might do well in Ohio.
However, Trump is an incumbent who, wall aside, has delivered a lot of what he promised to the American electorate (I understand).
He is also an odious arse but if peoples' stomachs are full, and they know that the person in the White House is going to fight for them, then that is a pretty compelling reason to keep him there.
Just like the 2019 GE where I backed Cons OM for 60-90 seats because just about everything that contributed to Corbyn's performance in 2017 was in the price and I couldn't see an incremental increase from there, so I think Trump is a known quantity and everything negative is pretty much out there so there is no reason for him to take a tremendous dip.
But as I said, I know nothing about US politics analytically, that's just my gut feel.
Like Brexit, a problem which has not gone away because we are looking elsewhere.
On lockdown: a lot of the wailing about Why aren't we doing y or z because look at the net advantage of doing y or z depends on the fallacy that it is utilitarianism all the way down. It isn't. Consider a tyrant who credibly says: either you personally torture x to death or i personally will torture x and another person to death. Utilitarianism says you should, most people will say you shouldn't, or you should in principle but they won't, or you should but then can't actually hack it when push comes to shove. Allowing hospitals to overflow and mass graves to be dug is analogous to doing the torturing.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think you misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I am aware of that world but @LadyG didn't mention the socio-economic status of his mate who lost his business.
Although I am with you absolutely on the very comfortable PB world where we can lockdown indefinitely because actually things are fine as long as the AGA doesn't go out or the walks get too muddy.
Well, if the Premier Cru Chablis* runs out, I'm going to go postal.
*The Grand Cru is running low, but I will be brave.
Rumour is it is about bringing the ISIS Beatles to the US for trial.
There seems to be a coordinated campaign to have some dirt on Trump every few days to stop his campaign getting any momentum. There were the partially leaked tax returns and the unverified anonymous accusations about him calling soldiers "losers and suckers"
When it comes to PB, it seems expensive office chairs is the new drinking expensive wine....
If you set the recline function right, a Herman Miller chair isn't bad for wine drinking. That first glass at 5:01 on Friday, just after just pull the plug on the VPN and wind the volume on the stereo to the "Weekend" setting.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think My friyou misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I am aware of that world but @LadyG didn't mention the socio-economic status of his mate who lost his business.
Although I am with you absolutely on the very comfortable PB world where we can lockdown indefinitely because actually things are fine as long as the AGA doesn't go out or the walks get too muddy.
My friend is working class, and was doing well in a very competitive industry that has been utterly destroyed by Covid. Because he is working class he does not have family finances to fall back on, no chance of an inheritance, no help from siblings etc; he does not own his London home (he was hoping to buy soon, not now), he is really completely fucked, he is self employed and benefits little from any government help. Also he loved his work, and now it is taken away. And his friends in the same industry are in the same horrible position.
Meanwhile lockdown has wrecked his marriage. And his wife (hospitality) has also been made redundant.
You can see why he is a bit blue. There must be tens of thousand like him, out there, in quiet despair
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
Are you expecting him and you to win? Or do you simply think he represents value? Edit. I see you addressed that.
I'd like to see the new case numbers broken down by setting - hospital, care home, community, university. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of new cases right now were actually coming from universities, the government needs to be much more upfront with the data because we could be in a situation where Scotland is closing for business because students in Glasgow and Edinburgh are catching it at a very fast rate, but the wider community might not be. These decisions being made on overall case numbers makes absolutely no sense at all.
So with a harsher lockdown, say pubs closing, no household mixing, granny doesn't get a hug.
What is the difference between this, for granny, if a bunch of 20-30yr olds minus those who must associate with vulnerable people are down the pub?
The difference for granny is that she is far, far less likely under the harsher lockdown to get the virus than if there is no lockdown. Especially if she needs any form of care which probably comes from 20-30 year olds.
If the virus is rife in the community then the people who care for the elderly will be infected and even with PPE will pass it on to the elderly.
You can argue its a price worth paying, but don't pretend please there's no difference. There absolutely is.
How so? Her carers aren't forced to go down the pub. They will take more care. But they might get the virus on the bus. Yes indeed they might and that is a difference. So work to make public transport safer by mask compliance and sanitation measures.
The question then becomes - is the chance of a carer getting the virus on public transport large enough to lock down a whole city.
If you think her carers, often working on minimum wage, will not be living their own lives when off the clock then that is entirely naive.
Do you honestly think that a young 20-something care worker on minimum wage never goes to the pub or does anything else same as everyone else their age?
Oh hold on Mr Libertarian.
So you are going to force the entire country into lockdown and many businesses to close permanently because a 20-yr old carer can't be trusted not to go down the pub?
Blimey - so much for personal responsibility.
No.
I said from the start "You can argue its a price worth paying, but don't pretend please there's no difference. There absolutely is." Did you not read that?
The idea we can hermetically seal the vulnerable from the general population is nonsense, since the vulnerable rely upon the general population. Roughly 5% of all jobs in this country are in adult social care - and this is without considering retail or any other vulnerabilities.
The idea we can save granny by just ignoring her is a nonsense, unless granny is fit and able to look after herself without any care - which isn't the case for those most at risk.
If you want to make an argument that it isn't worth locking the country down and if granny dies you can live with that then I respect that completely, that is an entirely valid libertarian argument. If you want to make an argument that you can save granny and avoid restrictions then that is just totally ignorant.
What an asinine post. You are talking in absolutes where no one else is.
I said: "But they [the carers] might get the virus on the bus. Yes indeed they might and that is a difference."
Neither am I ignoring granny. I am pointing out that in total lockdown she doesn't get to interact with her family, while if pubs are open - and people who go there realise they shouldn't go and hug granny - she doesn't get hugged either.
She does interact with her carers and yes, in society as a whole there would be a greater risk if 20-30yr olds were allowed to go to the pub.
I said there is a balance of risks and allowing economic activity to continue. And there could usefully be a discussion about whether the chances of carers going to the pub or being on a bus and contracting the virus, with the concomitant increase in mortality of those being cared for, should justify closing down the economy.
I think you are in one of your blind spots again Philip.
That's not what you said.
What you said is - and I quote: "What is the difference between this, for granny, if a bunch of 20-30yr olds minus those who must associate with vulnerable people are down the pub?"
I have explained what the difference is.
I haven't said whether I think the increased risk to the elderly justifies a lockdown or not. I have simply said make an informed decision.
You said that the difference is that she is far, far less likely to get the virus under harsher lockdown conditions. But of course you don't trust her 20-yr old carers not to go boozing it up down the pub after their 14hr shift (with 2x half-hour breaks). I think that you should trust people and that if (big if for you, I see) people are sensible then any increased risk could be mitigated.
I also said that there should be a discussion around those balance of risks.
I do trust people and I have a great amount of respect for people who work in that sector. You seem to be thinking that it is out of the question that someone who works 12 hour shifts, 4 days on, 4 days off might actually go to the pub or socialise during their 4 days off. Why that is, I'm not sure. Someone who has worked hard all pandemic in a tough sector, who has had no time off on furlough, who is working 12 hour shifts 4 days in a row absolutely can and should be able to socialise with someone else during their 4 days off. Saying otherwise is no way to live.
Plus of course the little issue you keep ignoring of who else those people live with or socialise with the rest of the time.
Unless you let rip, more stringent restrictions are the only alternative. The ones we have aren't working. There is no other way to square the circle.
Sure there is. You isolate the people who are infectious, or that you reasonably suspect might be infectious.
This involves rigorous, detailed work. It has to be done quickly. It involves lots of people in local areas who have the trust of the people in those areas, so that the public will cooperate.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
Are you expecting him and you to win? Or do you simply think he represents value?
I don't think he'll win, but I think the possibility of him scraping home in the electoral college is more likely than the current odds of 6/1 for the 270-299 range.
I'd like to see the new case numbers broken down by setting - hospital, care home, community, university. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of new cases right now were actually coming from universities, the government needs to be much more upfront with the data because we could be in a situation where Scotland is closing for business because students in Glasgow and Edinburgh are catching it at a very fast rate, but the wider community might not be. These decisions being made on overall case numbers makes absolutely no sense at all.
I number of unis have their own covid dashboards now. Shouldn't be too far to scrap them and compare.
Regarding universities, the decision to allow students to return to campuses ranks right up there with some of the worst decisions taken during the epidemic. Yes to try and rescue the situation I would look to a managed shutdown now of halls of residences for those with a home to return to, subject to testing immediately prior to return. Teaching to continue online, practical work postponed until 2021.
Regarding schools, no, simply because of the huge constraint that places on most parents' ability to work other than from home.
If students wish to return from Halls of Residence to their parent's house, they should be allowed to. I bet almost all won't.
The assumption that every student has a large comfortable bedroom in a house with supportive parents is clearly wrong. Many students do not, and many will find it easier to work at their University town rather than home.
Note almost every Western country has allowed students back to their Universities (including Wales where Labour is in power), and almost all the teaching is already online.
However, as far as I am concerned, if students wish to return home, they should be let off any rent obligations and be permitted to do so. I don't believe many will. If the tuition is significantly compromised by being online (as it is in some subjects), then students deserve a partial rebate.
I didn't make the assumption that "every student has a large comfortable bedroom in a house with supportive parents" which is why I was careful to use the wording "with a home to return to". However, very few students spend 12 months of the year on campus. Halls of residence need to remain open only for those who can demonstrate that they have "good reason" to remain, leading to few opportunities for large scale socialising or unavoidable mixing in densely populated blocks of communal accommodation. The rest should be required to go back after testing. The only real argument for students to stay put is the questionmark over whether our testing system is sufficiently robust to prevent the spreading of the virus back into their family home, which I admit is a moot point.
Once you take the decision to move 100% to online tuition, working from home is just as practical as working from a small bedroom in communal accommodation a mile from your lecture theatre. These are after all people who were perfectly capable of working at their family home outside of school lessons when studying for A levels so it's hardly a novel experience.
I get frustrated that some don't realise there are elements of a lot of Uni courses that cannot be taught exclusively online, notably in the sciences and engineering.
How about online Nursing
Pretty sure @TSE could point you to some very effective online nurse-themed material.
The only local lockdown which has had any success is in Leicester.
We've never been out!
Not that you can call it a lockdown. About the only thing that we are not allowed is to meet in each others houses and garden. Otherwise national rules apply.
Inpatient numbers creeping up, 41 now with 2 on ICU.
How are the other wards looking?
Anecdotally, I'd say there are noticeably more ambulances on sirens in my drive to and fro from Huddersfield, I'd say 60-75% of the time at the moment as opposed to 20-30% normally.
COVID cases have escalated dramatically in the last couple of weeks from a fairly lowish level here (despite lockdown), but the hundred or so COVID cases that would be accessed along that road, don't remotely explain any increased level of activity. Maybe I'm hypersensitive, but it doesn't feel like a normal autumn uptick either - I've never noticed it in ambulance activity before.
Busy, and we have had 2 ward outbreaks of covid and 1 of noravirus. Getting a lot of late cancellations and DNA again. Some patients are afraid to come, others are desperate to be seen. The orthopedic waiting list is horrible, with several hundred waitin
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
I think that potential Trump backers should hold onto their money, and wait for the odds to improve.
I'd like to see the new case numbers broken down by setting - hospital, care home, community, university. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of new cases right now were actually coming from universities, the government needs to be much more upfront with the data because we could be in a situation where Scotland is closing for business because students in Glasgow and Edinburgh are catching it at a very fast rate, but the wider community might not be. These decisions being made on overall case numbers makes absolutely no sense at all.
I number of unis have their own covid dashboards now. Shouldn't be too far to scrap them and compare.
I'd like to see the new case numbers broken down by setting - hospital, care home, community, university. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of new cases right now were actually coming from universities, the government needs to be much more upfront with the data because we could be in a situation where Scotland is closing for business because students in Glasgow and Edinburgh are catching it at a very fast rate, but the wider community might not be. These decisions being made on overall case numbers makes absolutely no sense at all.
I number of unis have their own covid dashboards now. Shouldn't be too far to scrap them and compare.
Sounds like someone has some spare time they've volunteered...
Good question on Twitter: why has Sturgeon banned drinking in restaurants? What difference does it make if you have a glass of wine with your roast lamb??
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
What percentage chance would you put for a Trump win at this point in time?
First off I have really not taken a keen interest or paid much attention to the minutiae of the US election. It is a land far away and I couldn't give a rat's arse who might do well in Ohio.
However, Trump is an incumbent who, wall aside, has delivered a lot of what he promised to the American electorate (I understand).
He is also an odious arse but if peoples' stomachs are full, and they know that the person in the White House is going to fight for them, then that is a pretty compelling reason to keep him there.
Just like the 2019 GE where I backed Cons OM for 60-90 seats because just about everything that contributed to Corbyn's performance in 2017 was in the price and I couldn't see an incremental increase from there, so I think Trump is a known quantity and everything negative is pretty much out there so there is no reason for him to take a tremendous dip.
But as I said, I know nothing about US politics analytically, that's just my gut feel.
He doesn't need to take a tremendous s dip. He just needs to lose 0.5% from where he was last time or for Biden to do 0.5% better and then Trump loses.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
Are you expecting him and you to win? Or do you simply think he represents value?
I don't think he'll win, but I think the possibility of him scraping home in the electoral college is more likely than the current odds of 6/1 for the 270-299 range.
Those odds are consistent with Nate Silver's model. The Economist's would suggest a bigger price.
A friendly warning to those in Scotland who think that voting for independence is a good idea.
If that happens you will get this sort of thing on a permanent basis from Sturgeon and her Green helpers - please think about your freedom and quality of life first before you vote for independence!
As someone who's never been much into pubs, I don't really understand why it's going to be illegal to drink a glass of beer indoors but legal to drink a glass of Coke. What is the thinking here? - that if you get pissed you'll weave around the place and forget about social distancing, whereas if you drink Coke you'll preserve a judicious distance? Forgive the ignorance here - I'm just trying to follow the reasoning.
Can't beat a good evening in a good pub Dr P.
I thought you studied at Cambridge? Anyway, if so, or if many other Uni towns, then you can't tell me you've not had some really great evenings in pubs.
Interesting as to your observations on Jean-Claude.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
Are you expecting him and you to win? Or do you simply think he represents value?
I don't think he'll win, but I think the possibility of him scraping home in the electoral college is more likely than the current odds of 6/1 for the 270-299 range.
I think those odds about right - but they were generous enough for me to have taken advantage of as insurance (though that was when Trump was nearer evens to win).
When it comes to PB, it seems expensive office chairs is the new drinking expensive wine....
I've got the cheapest one I could buy in my home office.
Paid $5 for mine at a tag sale over in the posh part of town.
("Tag sale" is the nearest US equivalent to a car boot sale. It's more a suburban thing where people have front yards and driveways big enough to hold one. Usually it's a single household trying to de-clutter; but often times the immediate neighbours will participate too so everyone can benefit from offering a big enough selection of items to attract interest.)
So with a harsher lockdown, say pubs closing, no household mixing, granny doesn't get a hug.
What is the difference between this, for granny, if a bunch of 20-30yr olds minus those who must associate with vulnerable people are down the pub?
The difference for granny is that she is far, far less likely under the harsher lockdown to get the virus than if there is no lockdown. Especially if she needs any form of care which probably comes from 20-30 year olds.
If the virus is rife in the community then the people who care for the elderly will be infected and even with PPE will pass it on to the elderly.
You can argue its a price worth paying, but don't pretend please there's no difference. There absolutely is.
How so? Her carers aren't forced to go down the pub. They will take more care. But they might get the virus on the bus. Yes indeed they might and that is a difference. So work to make public transport safer by mask compliance and sanitation measures.
The question then becomes - is the chance of a carer getting the virus on public transport large enough to lock down a whole city.
If you think her carers, often working on minimum wage, will not be living their own lives when off the clock then that is entirely naive.
Do you honestly think that a young 20-something care worker on minimum wage never goes to the pub or does anything else same as everyone else their age?
So pay them not to, it's cheaper to do this than destroy a whole industry.
That is 1.5 million people. Approximately 1,500,000 work in adult social care. How much are you going to pay that 1.5 million people not to socialise at all?
And how are you going to enforce that? Are we going to tag them all? Put ankle bracelets on them?
Furthermore what about their boyfriends/girlfriends/husbands/wives/children etc? Their friends? Their relatives they mingle with? When they go to the shops?
PS how much would you need to be paid to agree not to socialise at all with friends and family?
BUT THEY DON'T SOCIALISE IN LOCKDOWN EITHER!
Jeez Louise.
Yes the only way to stop them from socialising is having a lockdown.
If there's no lockdown, they will socialise.
Pay them lots of money not to. It's cheaper than lockdown.
How much? How much will you pay them not to socialise? Remembering that it is 1.5 million people we are talking about, how much do you think it is appropriate to pay someone not to socialise while everyone else can?
And does that extend to their partners and children and family and friends too? How would it work?
I'm not trying to be awkward, if you've got an answer I'd love to hear it. It just seems to me to be implausible.
How does an extra £10k sound, tax free. With the 1.5m number (which is actually closer to 1m) that's £15bn, the cost of lockdown is 20x that figure.
Cool, now we're getting somewhere.
Now does that just apply to those working in the sector? What about their children or husbands etc that they live with? What restrictions will you apply for that £10k, will a carer still be able to go for a coffee and a chat with her sister (who was at the pub last Friday) or complete lockdown?
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I've backed Trump 270-289 as discussed this morning yet have no bets on Big Joe.
That all said, I intend to do so at some point, just trying to work out the sweet spot for value and that's not now I don't think.
All the talk of how well New Zealand have done. I actually think Australia is far more impressive. They are a large country, lots of travel from all around the world, especially to and from China, and have several very large dense cities.
And the most recent outbreak was due to something outside of the government control i.e. security staff bonking hotel guests. The logic was sound of ensuring arrivals quarantine.
Other countries have also done well.
The nonsense that the only way to avoid our current purgatory is by giving up and stoically accepting tens, or hundreds, of thousands more dead is dangerous. We can do better.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance would go down all that well.
I don't think SK-levels of surveillance are a necessary condition for a successful test, trace and isolate scheme. I find it hard to believe that it should be beyond the collective capabilities of democracies to devise such a system.
It isn't that its impossible, it is whether western societies will accept it.
Sorry, I didn't express myself well. I think that we should be able to devise a system that achieves the same end - isolating the infectious to stop the virus - which doesn't involve mass surveillance.
When it comes to PB, it seems expensive office chairs is the new drinking expensive wine....
I've got the cheapest one I could buy in my home office.
On a serious note - a good chair is worth it.
The reason companies buy Herman Miller is that it makes them bullet proof against being sued over bad backs - so massively lower insurance costs.
I always reckon that at least three things are worth spending good money on - your shoes, your chair (if you sit all day) and your bed.
That's a fair point. I might look into actually buying a good one at some point. Recently splashed out on a nice big desk. Enough space for all my monitors and laptop etc.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
Are you expecting him and you to win? Or do you simply think he represents value?
I don't think he'll win, but I think the possibility of him scraping home in the electoral college is more likely than the current odds of 6/1 for the 270-299 range.
Those odds are consistent with Nate Silver's model. The Economist's would suggest a bigger price.
I am sure you are better at judging the odds than me, I just think that Trump has a better than 6/1 shot of winning a two horse race and I seriously doubt he's going to get more than 300 electoral college seats.
When it comes to PB, it seems expensive office chairs is the new drinking expensive wine....
I've got the cheapest one I could buy in my home office.
Paid $5 for mine at a tag sale over in the posh part of town.
("Tag sale" is the nearest US equivalent to a car boot sale. It's more a suburban thing where people have front yards and driveways big enough to hold one. Usually it's a single household trying to de-clutter; but often times the immediate neighbours will participate too so everyone can benefit from offering a big enough selection of items to attract interest.)
Rumour is it is about bringing the ISIS Beatles to the US for trial.
There seems to be a coordinated campaign to have some dirt on Trump every few days to stop his campaign getting any momentum. There were the partially leaked tax returns and the unverified anonymous accusations about him calling soldiers "losers and suckers"
Might this have something to do with the number of people he has right royally pissed off? I mean, as if he didn't have enough enemies, he's exposed many of his military top brass to the virus without giving fair warning. The numbers prepared to die in a ditch for him now must be very small indeed.
Bet she`s shitting herself about going up against that razor-sharp wit and intellectual tour de force that is Mike Pence.
The perspex screens are there to prevent Pence accidentally committing adultery.
I bought shares in the company that owns perspex at 925p during lockdown, and they are now 1370p. Unfortunately I got out at £11
Which is a good investment result.
I was thinking about matters such as this recently. Suppose you had bought bitcoin at a few cents, as they were once.
When would you have got out? When they were $100, meaning a 10,000x return? Or $1,000? Or at the peak of what was it $20,000, or at the then dip of $5,000 or....
I believe edmundintokyo got in early on the Bitcoin sleigh ride...
I bought 100 bitcoin at $3 a piece, so I can claim to be the earliest bitcoin "investor" on here. Indeed, I still own half a bitcoin.
Bet she`s shitting herself about going up against that razor-sharp wit and intellectual tour de force that is Mike Pence.
The perspex screens are there to prevent Pence accidentally committing adultery.
I bought shares in the company that owns perspex at 925p during lockdown, and they are now 1370p. Unfortunately I got out at £11
Which is a good investment result.
I was thinking about matters such as this recently. Suppose you had bought bitcoin at a few cents, as they were once.
When would you have got out? When they were $100, meaning a 10,000x return? Or $1,000? Or at the peak of what was it $20,000, or at the then dip of $5,000 or....
I believe edmundintokyo got in early on the Bitcoin sleigh ride...
I mined a few in the early days, forgot about them and lost them in a hard drive re-format (and subsequently ditched the drive well before the value would have justified paying for a professional recovery service). Prefer not to think about the theoretical loss, but in all honesty I would clearly have cashed out at least the majority well before the peak, certainly by $100, probably well before.
Unless you let rip, more stringent restrictions are the only alternative. The ones we have aren't working. There is no other way to square the circle.
Sure there is. You isolate the people who are infectious, or that you reasonably suspect might be infectious.
This involves rigorous, detailed work. It has to be done quickly. It involves lots of people in local areas who have the trust of the people in those areas, so that the public will cooperate.
Cannot see we have the manpower for any of that at short notice. Neither for the tracing nor enforcement. Nor do we have the sick pay to incentivise those isolating. The summer was the time for putting such systems in place, but we chose a confected row with Brussels instead.
So with a harsher lockdown, say pubs closing, no household mixing, granny doesn't get a hug.
What is the difference between this, for granny, if a bunch of 20-30yr olds minus those who must associate with vulnerable people are down the pub?
The difference for granny is that she is far, far less likely under the harsher lockdown to get the virus than if there is no lockdown. Especially if she needs any form of care which probably comes from 20-30 year olds.
If the virus is rife in the community then the people who care for the elderly will be infected and even with PPE will pass it on to the elderly.
You can argue its a price worth paying, but don't pretend please there's no difference. There absolutely is.
How so? Her carers aren't forced to go down the pub. They will take more care. But they might get the virus on the bus. Yes indeed they might and that is a difference. So work to make public transport safer by mask compliance and sanitation measures.
The question then becomes - is the chance of a carer getting the virus on public transport large enough to lock down a whole city.
If you think her carers, often working on minimum wage, will not be living their own lives when off the clock then that is entirely naive.
Do you honestly think that a young 20-something care worker on minimum wage never goes to the pub or does anything else same as everyone else their age?
So pay them not to, it's cheaper to do this than destroy a whole industry.
That is 1.5 million people. Approximately 1,500,000 work in adult social care. How much are you going to pay that 1.5 million people not to socialise at all?
And how are you going to enforce that? Are we going to tag them all? Put ankle bracelets on them?
Furthermore what about their boyfriends/girlfriends/husbands/wives/children etc? Their friends? Their relatives they mingle with? When they go to the shops?
PS how much would you need to be paid to agree not to socialise at all with friends and family?
BUT THEY DON'T SOCIALISE IN LOCKDOWN EITHER!
Jeez Louise.
Yes the only way to stop them from socialising is having a lockdown.
If there's no lockdown, they will socialise.
Pay them lots of money not to. It's cheaper than lockdown.
How much? How much will you pay them not to socialise? Remembering that it is 1.5 million people we are talking about, how much do you think it is appropriate to pay someone not to socialise while everyone else can?
And does that extend to their partners and children and family and friends too? How would it work?
I'm not trying to be awkward, if you've got an answer I'd love to hear it. It just seems to me to be implausible.
How does an extra £10k sound, tax free. With the 1.5m number (which is actually closer to 1m) that's £15bn, the cost of lockdown is 20x that figure.
Cool, now we're getting somewhere.
Now does that just apply to those working in the sector? What about their children or husbands etc that they live with? What restrictions will you apply for that £10k, will a carer still be able to go for a coffee and a chat with her sister (who was at the pub last Friday) or complete lockdown?
The bonus is for separation, you get it to not socialise so no coffees, no pub, no restaurants. It isn't beyond the wit of man to come up with assistance for school age children of them or some kind of package for spouses. I mean even another £10k isn't out of the question for couples. We're talking about the difference between life continuing basically as normal for everyone else and a tiny economic hit for the cost of maybe £40-50bn if it's very generous or a repeat of what we already had which will cost £300bn once we're counted everything up.
I'd like to see the new case numbers broken down by setting - hospital, care home, community, university. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of new cases right now were actually coming from universities, the government needs to be much more upfront with the data because we could be in a situation where Scotland is closing for business because students in Glasgow and Edinburgh are catching it at a very fast rate, but the wider community might not be. These decisions being made on overall case numbers makes absolutely no sense at all.
Dunno if it is students now in Scotland. Travelling Tabby has today's cases as age group 15-19 at 120, 20-24 at 113, 25-44 at 344 and 45-64 at 301.
My son in law's mother who has dementia and is in care was taken into hospital on Sunday and has lost the use of her right leg. The ambulance took 6 hours to come and she was then in A & E for 24 hours waiting for a ward.
When she went on the ward my son in law was told neither his sister or he could see her whilst she is in hospital. Yesterday the hospital said she had stopped eating and drinking and they could not get a line in and that she is failing. They said her daughter could come in after school today, (she is a teacher), just to see if she could provide some help in the situation
It is clear she will not be able to stay a long time at the hospital and my son in law knows it is very unlikely he will see his mother again
And his father is in care also and neither my son in law or his daughter have seen him in the last 14 days and they have not yet told him of the situation with their mother
The anguish in the family is very real and the feeling of being helpless all consuming
(1) There is no long-term "let it rip" strategy, because after a few weeks of "let it rip", then population locks themselves down anyway. People (except perhaps the 18 to 24 demographic) don't go out and socialise if they think there's a serious risk of catching CV19.
This is why places like Georgia (in the US) which removed pretty much all restrictions haven't performed appreciably better economically, and have still seen cases - after an initial "let it rip" - come down.
(2) Sweden does not have a "let it rip" strategy. Instead it had a perfectly sensible set of long-term R minimisation strategies (school and university are virtual for 16 and up - yes, even now), encourage working from home, table service only at bars and restaurants, prohibitions on high risk events. Most shops - especially in Stockholm - require mask wearing, and it is common (but far from universal) on public transport. Sweden's strategy has been a largely voluntary lockdown, and one that has avoided big swings in restrictions.
The most sensible way forward - as I've said for, ooohhhh..., about six months now is a consistent set of restrictions on the highest risk activities that people can live with and adjust to.
This, by the way, has also been the strategy in Japan, which - especially given its dense urban population - has probably performed by far the best of any major advanced economy.
"let it rip" is just a caricature of the opinion of those who think the restrictions are too severe. Like when people say that those who want stricter immigration controls "hate foreigners"
Yes. It's an absolutely infantile way to frame the debate – I'm not aware of any PBer (for example) who advocates a free-for-all. Even @LadyG accepts some restrictions. Casting more liberal voices as 'let it rip' actually makes debating this boring and pointless because it makes it utterly impossible to find common ground and nuanced solutions.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think My friyou misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I am aware of that world but @LadyG didn't mention the socio-economic status of his mate who lost his business.
Although I am with you absolutely on the very comfortable PB world where we can lockdown indefinitely because actually things are fine as long as the AGA doesn't go out or the walks get too muddy.
My friend is working class, and was doing well in a very competitive industry that has been utterly destroyed by Covid. Because he is working class he does not have family finances to fall back on, no chance of an inheritance, no help from siblings etc; he does not own his London home (he was hoping to buy soon, not now), he is really completely fucked, he is self employed and benefits little from any government help. Also he loved his work, and now it is taken away. And his friends in the same industry are in the same horrible position.
Meanwhile lockdown has wrecked his marriage. And his wife (hospitality) has also been made redundant.
You can see why he is a bit blue. There must be tens of thousand like him, out there, in quiet despair
It is important to realise that even if there were no lockdown restrictions at all, his business would still be fucked.
OpenTable produces statistics on dining volumes by US state and also internationally. The reality is that people aren't going out to eat in the same volumes they were, even in places without restrictions.
In comparisons between the 2018 midterms turnout and the 2020 presidential election be wary though.
In 2018 the Democrats got 60,572,245 votes, that was only 5 million less than the 65,853,514 votes Hillary got in the 2016 presidential election so there was huge Democrat turnout in 2018 to protest against Trump.
The Republicans however had much bigger problems getting their voters out in 2018 with Trump not on the ballot. Only 50,861,970 voted Republican in 2018, a huge 12 million less than the 62,984,828 votes Trump got in 2016.
So in short expect Trump's vote in November to be significantly higher than the Republicans got in 2018 but the Biden vote to be much closer to the Democratic vote in 2018.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I've backed Trump 270-289 as discussed this morning yet have no bets on Big Joe.
That all said, I intend to do so at some point, just trying to work out the sweet spot for value and that's not now I don't think.
The time to back the Dems was back when they were @2.5 earlier this year.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I'm backing him to win. Because I think people let their dislike of him interfere with their analysis of election factors.
Are you expecting him and you to win? Or do you simply think he represents value?
I don't think he'll win, but I think the possibility of him scraping home in the electoral college is more likely than the current odds of 6/1 for the 270-299 range.
Those odds are consistent with Nate Silver's model. The Economist's would suggest a bigger price.
I am sure you are better at judging the odds than me, I just think that Trump has a better than 6/1 shot of winning a two horse race and I seriously doubt he's going to get more than 300 electoral college seats.
Nate's suggestion, not mine. I keep an open mind and trade in and out as the prices fluctuate. I'm about £600 'in the money' as things stand but am not yet inclined to trade out.
I don't bet as heavily as I once did but am being increasingly drawn by what I regard as a pretty decent investment opportunity for those that can read it right. My regular readers (both of them) will already know how I am reading it at the moment.
Bet she`s shitting herself about going up against that razor-sharp wit and intellectual tour de force that is Mike Pence.
The perspex screens are there to prevent Pence accidentally committing adultery.
I bought shares in the company that owns perspex at 925p during lockdown, and they are now 1370p. Unfortunately I got out at £11
Which is a good investment result.
I was thinking about matters such as this recently. Suppose you had bought bitcoin at a few cents, as they were once.
When would you have got out? When they were $100, meaning a 10,000x return? Or $1,000? Or at the peak of what was it $20,000, or at the then dip of $5,000 or....
I believe edmundintokyo got in early on the Bitcoin sleigh ride...
I mined a few in the early days, forgot about them and lost them in a hard drive re-format (and subsequently ditched the drive well before the value would have justified paying for a professional recovery service). Prefer not to think about the theoretical loss, but in all honesty I would clearly have cashed out at least the majority well before the peak, certainly by $100, probably well before.
I was on the verge of buying some at around £150 when the Mt. Gox scandal happened which completely put me off.
Must be an awful lot of SNP voters having second thoughts today. An independent Scotland will be a truly miserable place.
I reckon the SNP would probably fold if Scotland actually did become independent. It's already a pretty fractured mish mash of ideology under the independence umbrella, their party discipline is just pretty hot on keeping one unified voice, often to the detriment of actual independent thought.
I know we have just one or two Trump supporters on here - but I don`t recall any poster, Trump supporter or not, who is actually backing Trump to win with real money (except through an insurance bet due to being so heavily into Biden) which is surprising, esp as it`s a two horse race. They`ll be a lot of red faces if we`ve got this wrong.
I've backed Trump 270-289 as discussed this morning yet have no bets on Big Joe.
That all said, I intend to do so at some point, just trying to work out the sweet spot for value and that's not now I don't think.
He got 304 last time, what state(s) will he lose this time?
My son in law's mother who has dementia and is in care was taken into hospital on Sunday and has lost the use of her right leg. The ambulance took 6 hours to come and she was then in A & E for 24 hours waiting for a ward.
When she went on the ward my son in law was told neither his sister or he could see her whilst she is in hospital. Yesterday the hospital said she had stopped eating and drinking and they could not get a line in and that she is failing. They said her daughter could come in after school today, (she is a teacher), just to see if she could provide some help in the situation
It is clear she will not be able to stay a long time at the hospital and my son in law knows it is very unlikely he will see his mother again
And his father is in care also and neither my son in law or his daughter have seen him in the last 14 days and they have not yet told him of the situation with their mother
The anguish in the family is very real and the feeling of being helpless all consuming
Very sorry to hear this Big G
The complete inadequacy of the health and care services to be able to provide adequate support to patients and their families in so many cases is absolutely shocking.
I can see widespread disobedience and possible civil resistance. A sunny spring lockdown was tolerable, once. An indefinite autumn and winter lockdown will send people mad. Fuck this insanity.
a second lock down won't be as effective as it requires consent and there'll be less of it. Still a majority consent, easy, but effectiveness will be lower with even a little less compliance.
An entire British autumn and winter without pubs, restaurants, society, parties, theatres, anything. It's..... dystopian. I'd literally prefer it if we were at war. At least that would be dramatic. This is just unremitting bleakness. The mental health impacts are going to be catastrophic
I have close friends who are already tipping towards mental breakdown. No exaggeration.
My apologies if this seems callous.
I am used to going out x times a week etc. I like my holidays. Group of friends etc..
Yet to me, bars closed, no travel, is something that I don't like, but must do.
I am can intellectualise why people find it life ending - but I struggle to internalise it. To really *feel* it.
Something like that revelation in Orwell, where he saw a woman in a grim slum, from a stopped train. In that moment he *felt* (he said) the realisation of her *knowing the awfulness of her situation*. Of not just being one of the "poor", but a person.
I explained in another comment why this is so particularly tough for some people: like my friend, just one example, who has lost his business from Covid and sees no business in the future, and has had suicidal thoughts thereby. He said what kept him going was seeing friends in the pub. He loves the pub and needs the friendship.
His marriage is in tatters because Covid.
I have a working class friend
How ghastly for you.
How nice of you to snear. And remove the context.
He lived through a staggeringly shit time. His response - went from overweight to running marathons. Because, he said, I can afford a pair of trainers.
Perhaps he was stupid to grin and bear it. Perhaps.. But I was impressed. Maybe that makes me a fool.
Why did you feel his working classness was of particular note?
It wasn't me doing the patronising.
I think My friyou misunderstand.
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I am aware of that world but @LadyG didn't mention the socio-economic status of his mate who lost his business.
Although I am with you absolutely on the very comfortable PB world where we can lockdown indefinitely because actually things are fine as long as the AGA doesn't go out or the walks get too muddy.
My friend is working class, and was doing well in a very competitive industry that has been utterly destroyed by Covid. Because he is working class he does not have family finances to fall back on, no chance of an inheritance, no help from siblings etc; he does not own his London home (he was hoping to buy soon, not now), he is really completely fucked, he is self employed and benefits little from any government help. Also he loved his work, and now it is taken away. And his friends in the same industry are in the same horrible position.
Meanwhile lockdown has wrecked his marriage. And his wife (hospitality) has also been made redundant.
You can see why he is a bit blue. There must be tens of thousand like him, out there, in quiet despair
It is important to realise that even if there were no lockdown restrictions at all, his business would still be fucked.
OpenTable produces statistics on dining volumes by US state and also internationally. The reality is that people aren't going out to eat in the same volumes they were, even in places without restrictions.
So with a harsher lockdown, say pubs closing, no household mixing, granny doesn't get a hug.
What is the difference between this, for granny, if a bunch of 20-30yr olds minus those who must associate with vulnerable people are down the pub?
The difference for granny is that she is far, far less likely under the harsher lockdown to get the virus than if there is no lockdown. Especially if she needs any form of care which probably comes from 20-30 year olds.
If the virus is rife in the community then the people who care for the elderly will be infected and even with PPE will pass it on to the elderly.
You can argue its a price worth paying, but don't pretend please there's no difference. There absolutely is.
How so? Her carers aren't forced to go down the pub. They will take more care. But they might get the virus on the bus. Yes indeed they might and that is a difference. So work to make public transport safer by mask compliance and sanitation measures.
The question then becomes - is the chance of a carer getting the virus on public transport large enough to lock down a whole city.
If you think her carers, often working on minimum wage, will not be living their own lives when off the clock then that is entirely naive.
Do you honestly think that a young 20-something care worker on minimum wage never goes to the pub or does anything else same as everyone else their age?
So pay them not to, it's cheaper to do this than destroy a whole industry.
That is 1.5 million people. Approximately 1,500,000 work in adult social care. How much are you going to pay that 1.5 million people not to socialise at all?
And how are you going to enforce that? Are we going to tag them all? Put ankle bracelets on them?
Furthermore what about their boyfriends/girlfriends/husbands/wives/children etc? Their friends? Their relatives they mingle with? When they go to the shops?
PS how much would you need to be paid to agree not to socialise at all with friends and family?
BUT THEY DON'T SOCIALISE IN LOCKDOWN EITHER!
Jeez Louise.
Yes the only way to stop them from socialising is having a lockdown.
If there's no lockdown, they will socialise.
Pay them lots of money not to. It's cheaper than lockdown.
How much? How much will you pay them not to socialise? Remembering that it is 1.5 million people we are talking about, how much do you think it is appropriate to pay someone not to socialise while everyone else can?
And does that extend to their partners and children and family and friends too? How would it work?
I'm not trying to be awkward, if you've got an answer I'd love to hear it. It just seems to me to be implausible.
How does an extra £10k sound, tax free. With the 1.5m number (which is actually closer to 1m) that's £15bn, the cost of lockdown is 20x that figure.
Cool, now we're getting somewhere.
Now does that just apply to those working in the sector? What about their children or husbands etc that they live with? What restrictions will you apply for that £10k, will a carer still be able to go for a coffee and a chat with her sister (who was at the pub last Friday) or complete lockdown?
The bonus is for separation, you get it to not socialise so no coffees, no pub, no restaurants. It isn't beyond the wit of man to come up with assistance for school age children of them or some kind of package for spouses. I mean even another £10k isn't out of the question for couples. We're talking about the difference between life continuing basically as normal for everyone else and a tiny economic hit for the cost of maybe £40-50bn if it's very generous or a repeat of what we already had which will cost £300bn once we're counted everything up.
Isn't it something worth looking at, at least?
It is worth considering and at that level of cash I think it could be taken up by some. When people imply that something like this is easily done, its not. If you're happy to put £40-50bn behind it (and I don't think it could be done for any cheaper than that) then that's possble.
Though how long does that 10k last for? £10k for months could work, £10k for years and people aren't going to stick to it.
Comments
Because I've seen the middle class attitude of "it's been great for me, the price of a gardener has dropped to nothing" a few too many times....
There is a world, which most PB'rs don't think about, which is a long way from having someone come round to your desk to help you setup your brand new Herman Miller chair.
I was thinking about matters such as this recently. Suppose you had bought bitcoin at a few cents, as they were once.
When would you have got out? When they were $100, meaning a 10,000x return? Or $1,000? Or at the peak of what was it $20,000, or at the then dip of $5,000 or....
This is why places like Georgia (in the US) which removed pretty much all restrictions haven't performed appreciably better economically, and have still seen cases - after an initial "let it rip" - come down.
(2) Sweden does not have a "let it rip" strategy. Instead it had a perfectly sensible set of long-term R minimisation strategies (school and university are virtual for 16 and up - yes, even now), encourage working from home, table service only at bars and restaurants, prohibitions on high risk events. Most shops - especially in Stockholm - require mask wearing, and it is common (but far from universal) on public transport. Sweden's strategy has been a largely voluntary lockdown, and one that has avoided big swings in restrictions.
The most sensible way forward - as I've said for, ooohhhh..., about six months now is a consistent set of restrictions on the highest risk activities that people can live with and adjust to.
This, by the way, has also been the strategy in Japan, which - especially given its dense urban population - has probably performed by far the best of any major advanced economy.
But how is that bad for GOP.
Although I am with you absolutely on the very comfortable PB world where we can lockdown indefinitely because actually things are fine as long as the AGA doesn't go out or the walks get too muddy.
But there is a moment when you should think about the difference between working for a company that buys you a 1K chair, and the jobs that don't pay that in a month.
The chap in question got a nice middle class job in the end - lucky break, via a friend. Went from a minimum wage, dead end, part time, job in a failing business in a shithole to working full time, PAYE, for an international company, in plush offices in a landscaped, high end, business park in the nice part of town.
His descriptions of the difference between bottom end jobs vs Herman Miller world would make an interesting story, I reckon.
*The Grand Cru is running low, but I will be brave.
A similar group of people who have spent 40 years scoffing at their communitarianism suddenly believes we can magically become them. But, of course without all the social protections which make Sweden Sweden. Nor the conformity which makes Japan Japan.
We are heading for a second lockdown either de jure or de facto.
However, Trump is an incumbent who, wall aside, has delivered a lot of what he promised to the American electorate (I understand).
He is also an odious arse but if peoples' stomachs are full, and they know that the person in the White House is going to fight for them, then that is a pretty compelling reason to keep him there.
Just like the 2019 GE where I backed Cons OM for 60-90 seats because just about everything that contributed to Corbyn's performance in 2017 was in the price and I couldn't see an incremental increase from there, so I think Trump is a known quantity and everything negative is pretty much out there so there is no reason for him to take a tremendous dip.
But as I said, I know nothing about US politics analytically, that's just my gut feel.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54442782
Like Brexit, a problem which has not gone away because we are looking elsewhere.
On lockdown: a lot of the wailing about Why aren't we doing y or z because look at the net advantage of doing y or z depends on the fallacy that it is utilitarianism all the way down. It isn't. Consider a tyrant who credibly says: either you personally torture x to death or i personally will torture x and another person to death. Utilitarianism says you should, most people will say you shouldn't, or you should in principle but they won't, or you should but then can't actually hack it when push comes to shove. Allowing hospitals to overflow and mass graves to be dug is analogous to doing the torturing.
Meanwhile lockdown has wrecked his marriage. And his wife (hospitality) has also been made redundant.
You can see why he is a bit blue. There must be tens of thousand like him, out there, in quiet despair
Edit. I see you addressed that.
Plus of course the little issue you keep ignoring of who else those people live with or socialise with the rest of the time.
This involves rigorous, detailed work. It has to be done quickly. It involves lots of people in local areas who have the trust of the people in those areas, so that the public will cooperate.
The reason companies buy Herman Miller is that it makes them bullet proof against being sued over bad backs - so massively lower insurance costs.
I always reckon that at least three things are worth spending good money on - your shoes, your chair (if you sit all day) and your bed.
There certainly is.
I thought you studied at Cambridge? Anyway, if so, or if many other Uni towns, then you can't tell me you've not had some really great evenings in pubs.
Interesting as to your observations on Jean-Claude.
Pity one can't buy shares in that.
("Tag sale" is the nearest US equivalent to a car boot sale. It's more a suburban thing where people have front yards and driveways big enough to hold one. Usually it's a single household trying to de-clutter; but often times the immediate neighbours will participate too so everyone can benefit from offering a big enough selection of items to attract interest.)
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/america-will-be-michigan-soon/616635/
Michigan is a preview of how far Republican judges will go to obstruct Democrats in office.
Now does that just apply to those working in the sector? What about their children or husbands etc that they live with? What restrictions will you apply for that £10k, will a carer still be able to go for a coffee and a chat with her sister (who was at the pub last Friday) or complete lockdown?
That all said, I intend to do so at some point, just trying to work out the sweet spot for value and that's not now I don't think.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18776783.alex-salmond-inquiry-nicola-sturgeon-releases-whatsapp-messages-not-mentioned-msps/
The summer was the time for putting such systems in place, but we chose a confected row with Brussels instead.
Isn't it something worth looking at, at least?
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
Asking for a friend.
When she went on the ward my son in law was told neither his sister or he could see her whilst she is in hospital. Yesterday the hospital said she had stopped eating and drinking and they could not get a line in and that she is failing. They said her daughter could come in after school today, (she is a teacher), just to see if she could provide some help in the situation
It is clear she will not be able to stay a long time at the hospital and my son in law knows it is very unlikely he will see his mother again
And his father is in care also and neither my son in law or his daughter have seen him in the last 14 days and they have not yet told him of the situation with their mother
The anguish in the family is very real and the feeling of being helpless all consuming
His latest tweet is odd to say the least. It's almost as if he's talking to himself.
I almost feel sorry for him.
OpenTable produces statistics on dining volumes by US state and also internationally. The reality is that people aren't going out to eat in the same volumes they were, even in places without restrictions.
If that 60m Democrat total in 2018 includes, say, 5m people who voted for Trump/ didn't vote in 2016 then it makes a nonsense of your conclusion
I don't bet as heavily as I once did but am being increasingly drawn by what I regard as a pretty decent investment opportunity for those that can read it right. My regular readers (both of them) will already know how I am reading it at the moment.
The complete inadequacy of the health and care services to be able to provide adequate support to patients and their families in so many cases is absolutely shocking.
Though how long does that 10k last for? £10k for months could work, £10k for years and people aren't going to stick to it.