Assuming that the next president market is a two donkey race (i.e. neither drops out) the book with BF is less than 100%.
1.66 Biden, 2.56 Trump (99.3% book).
There is value in this market - and despite recent shortenings in price I think Biden is a good value bet. It feels to me that Trump should be significantly longer than 6/4.
Edit: BF commissions of course.
The 538 model - which is more Trump friendly than most others - gives him a 22% chance. That's way longer than 6/4. Something is still supporting his price. Just a "feeling" that it will be much closer than the polls indicate, I suppose. It appears that the possibility of the polls being out the other way is being assigned a probability of near zero. I can't see why personally.
A question: I know the various models (538, Economist) take a number of factors into account in their modelling. Do they factor in vote suppression? If they don't, they are bound to underestimate the chance of Trump winning, and maybe punters are being more realistic in estimating the effect of suppression.
538, at least, calibrates opinion polls by previous election results so, to the extent that vote suppression in the past created a mismatch between opinion polls and votes that will be captured by the model.
If that mismatch increases, then it will not be captured by the model. I think this is a risk.
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Alok Sharma, the thinking man's Gillian Keegan is on Radio 4 now. A bit tetchy with Martha Kearney.
If one needs to know the rules, go on line, is Mr Sharma's go to statement.
Actually that is the best advice any politician can give
Here in Conwy CBC we were instructed to go into lockdown tonight and everyone I know and on social media spoke about Conwy web site that provides all the information that is necessary
We are not allowed to cross into another authority's area apart from for work, we are not allowed to leave to go away on holiday, and those on holiday here must go home
My hometown of Llandudno was just recovering and now Mark Drakeford has slammed the door on our hotels and guest houses
I have relations with a holiday caravan on Anglesey. They live in Lancashire. I assume that the caravan is now inaccessible by road. After all one cannot, without an enormous detour get from just N of Manchester to Beaumaris by road without going through Conwy. AIUI they're intending to visit next week.
There was a similar question on 5 live yesterday. Apparently Anglesey is not in the restricted area, so fine to go and stay. At least it was fine yesterday...🙄
They cannot get there as most authorities from the border are closed to traffic coming in from England
I didn't see that on the M4 - maybe the case for minor roads? And as you can still travel for work, I doubt this it true.
You do realise this comes in at 6.00pm tonight in North Wales
I went through areas ALREADY under these rules last week. There was no barrier. I know during the first lockdown there were police checks in areas - I am sceptical that that is the case now. Or indeed in Conwy when the new measures come into place.
"Can I travel through Conwy County Borough to reach a destination not in the Borough? If you have to travel along a road that passes through the area and you have no other reasonable option to travel to your destination, then this is allowed."
Assuming that the next president market is a two donkey race (i.e. neither drops out) the book with BF is less than 100%.
1.66 Biden, 2.56 Trump (99.3% book).
There is value in this market - and despite recent shortenings in price I think Biden is a good value bet. It feels to me that Trump should be significantly longer than 6/4.
Edit: BF commissions of course.
The 538 model - which is more Trump friendly than most others - gives him a 22% chance. That's way longer than 6/4. Something is still supporting his price. Just a "feeling" that it will be much closer than the polls indicate, I suppose. It appears that the possibility of the polls being out the other way is being assigned a probability of near zero. I can't see why personally.
A question: I know the various models (538, Economist) take a number of factors into account in their modelling. Do they factor in vote suppression? If they don't, they are bound to underestimate the chance of Trump winning, and maybe punters are being more realistic in estimating the effect of suppression.
Doubt it. I guess it's one of the Known-Unknowns and is one of the factors in the Margin of Error which at about 3.5% sweeps up that kind of thing.
I think it would be wrong to account for it, just as it would be wrong to account for differential mail-in votes before the numbers are known and which could easily swing things a different way.
Btw, I do not think voter suppression is likely to be a big factor. For all its faults, the US is still a proper democracy and knows how to run elections.
Assuming that the next president market is a two donkey race (i.e. neither drops out) the book with BF is less than 100%.
1.66 Biden, 2.56 Trump (99.3% book).
There is value in this market - and despite recent shortenings in price I think Biden is a good value bet. It feels to me that Trump should be significantly longer than 6/4.
Edit: BF commissions of course.
The 538 model - which is more Trump friendly than most others - gives him a 22% chance. That's way longer than 6/4. Something is still supporting his price. Just a "feeling" that it will be much closer than the polls indicate, I suppose. It appears that the possibility of the polls being out the other way is being assigned a probability of near zero. I can't see why personally.
A question: I know the various models (538, Economist) take a number of factors into account in their modelling. Do they factor in vote suppression? If they don't, they are bound to underestimate the chance of Trump winning, and maybe punters are being more realistic in estimating the effect of suppression.
To the extent that opinion polls factor in turnout, based partly on what has happened in the past. I don't think they factor in any prediction of voter suppression being more effective this time around, in ways that aren't captured in the polling.
"It seeks to reflect the vote as cast on Election Day, assuming that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. It does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted."
Alok Sharma, the thinking man's Gillian Keegan is on Radio 4 now. A bit tetchy with Martha Kearney.
If one needs to know the rules, go on line, is Mr Sharma's go to statement.
Actually that is the best advice any politician can give
Here in Conwy CBC we were instructed to go into lockdown tonight and everyone I know and on social media spoke about Conwy web site that provides all the information that is necessary
We are not allowed to cross into another authority's area apart from for work, we are not allowed to leave to go away on holiday, and those on holiday here must go home
My hometown of Llandudno was just recovering and now Mark Drakeford has slammed the door on our hotels and guest houses
I have relations with a holiday caravan on Anglesey. They live in Lancashire. I assume that the caravan is now inaccessible by road. After all one cannot, without an enormous detour get from just N of Manchester to Beaumaris by road without going through Conwy. AIUI they're intending to visit next week.
There was a similar question on 5 live yesterday. Apparently Anglesey is not in the restricted area, so fine to go and stay. At least it was fine yesterday...🙄
They cannot get there as most authorities from the border are closed to traffic coming in from England
I didn't see that on the M4 - maybe the case for minor roads? And as you can still travel for work, I doubt this it true.
You do realise this comes in at 6.00pm tonight in North Wales
I went through areas ALREADY under these rules last week. There was no barrier. I know during the first lockdown there were police checks in areas - I am sceptical that that is the case now. Or indeed in Conwy when the new measures come into place.
"Can I travel through Conwy County Borough to reach a destination not in the Borough? If you have to travel along a road that passes through the area and you have no other reasonable option to travel to your destination, then this is allowed."
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
You do not need to read my posts
I was reading Olly's post
Who said the same thing. As did CHB
In politics, and political debate, hollow threats and hollow promises are a quick way to destroy your own credibility. Especially if you start off on a lap of dishonour.
Alok Sharma, the thinking man's Gillian Keegan is on Radio 4 now. A bit tetchy with Martha Kearney.
If one needs to know the rules, go on line, is Mr Sharma's go to statement.
Actually that is the best advice any politician can give
Here in Conwy CBC we were instructed to go into lockdown tonight and everyone I know and on social media spoke about Conwy web site that provides all the information that is necessary
We are not allowed to cross into another authority's area apart from for work, we are not allowed to leave to go away on holiday, and those on holiday here must go home
My hometown of Llandudno was just recovering and now Mark Drakeford has slammed the door on our hotels and guest houses
I have relations with a holiday caravan on Anglesey. They live in Lancashire. I assume that the caravan is now inaccessible by road. After all one cannot, without an enormous detour get from just N of Manchester to Beaumaris by road without going through Conwy. AIUI they're intending to visit next week.
There was a similar question on 5 live yesterday. Apparently Anglesey is not in the restricted area, so fine to go and stay. At least it was fine yesterday...🙄
They cannot get there as most authorities from the border are closed to traffic coming in from England
I didn't see that on the M4 - maybe the case for minor roads? And as you can still travel for work, I doubt this it true.
You do realise this comes in at 6.00pm tonight in North Wales
I went through areas ALREADY under these rules last week. There was no barrier. I know during the first lockdown there were police checks in areas - I am sceptical that that is the case now. Or indeed in Conwy when the new measures come into place.
"Can I travel through Conwy County Borough to reach a destination not in the Borough? If you have to travel along a road that passes through the area and you have no other reasonable option to travel to your destination, then this is allowed."
Not for leisure purposes
Its a direct quote from the document you linked FFS. Under Travel and public transport.
Just spoke to my daughter's school as she's at home isolating since one of her classmates tested positive yesterday. They have advised that the whole class is to stay home for a fortnight.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
I know it wasn't always observed, but was it really that long ago that candidates respected each other at least? What a crazy time we lived in where that was possible.
Assuming that the next president market is a two donkey race (i.e. neither drops out) the book with BF is less than 100%.
1.66 Biden, 2.56 Trump (99.3% book).
There is value in this market - and despite recent shortenings in price I think Biden is a good value bet. It feels to me that Trump should be significantly longer than 6/4.
Edit: BF commissions of course.
The 538 model - which is more Trump friendly than most others - gives him a 22% chance. That's way longer than 6/4. Something is still supporting his price. Just a "feeling" that it will be much closer than the polls indicate, I suppose. It appears that the possibility of the polls being out the other way is being assigned a probability of near zero. I can't see why personally.
A question: I know the various models (538, Economist) take a number of factors into account in their modelling. Do they factor in vote suppression? If they don't, they are bound to underestimate the chance of Trump winning, and maybe punters are being more realistic in estimating the effect of suppression.
Very, very hard to factor that in, although voter suppression in one form or other has long been a factor in US politics and this is reflected in propensity to vote in different groups (which does go to poll weighting).
Will it be worse this year? Perhaps. Could it decided a very close election? Maybe. Is it worth multiple percentage points compared with previous years? Feels unlikely but time may tell.
I do think more of what is influencing the odds is recency bias - the most recent Presidential election was better for the GOP (and specifically Trump) than most predicted, and the electoral college was very helpful to him in practice. Punters are possibly right to be wary due to that.
But it probably overweights 2016... in 2012, GOP underperformed the final polls, and the electoral college gave a slight advantage to Obama (i.e. a uniform national swing sufficient for Romney very narrowly to win the popular vote would NOT have been quite enough to see him become President). Completely fair to say 2016 is more relevant (notably as Trump is candidate again), but worth remembering elections did happen before 2016 and patterns differed a little.
Just spoke to my daughter's school as she's at home isolating since one of her classmates tested positive yesterday. They have advised that the whole class is to stay home for a fortnight.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
Yep - that's 100% correct. You only go for a test if/ when there are symptoms and it's worth having a test to see if it's Covid or a common cold.
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Alok Sharma, the thinking man's Gillian Keegan is on Radio 4 now. A bit tetchy with Martha Kearney.
If one needs to know the rules, go on line, is Mr Sharma's go to statement.
Actually that is the best advice any politician can give
Here in Conwy CBC we were instructed to go into lockdown tonight and everyone I know and on social media spoke about Conwy web site that provides all the information that is necessary
We are not allowed to cross into another authority's area apart from for work, we are not allowed to leave to go away on holiday, and those on holiday here must go home
My hometown of Llandudno was just recovering and now Mark Drakeford has slammed the door on our hotels and guest houses
I have relations with a holiday caravan on Anglesey. They live in Lancashire. I assume that the caravan is now inaccessible by road. After all one cannot, without an enormous detour get from just N of Manchester to Beaumaris by road without going through Conwy. AIUI they're intending to visit next week.
There was a similar question on 5 live yesterday. Apparently Anglesey is not in the restricted area, so fine to go and stay. At least it was fine yesterday...🙄
They cannot get there as most authorities from the border are closed to traffic coming in from England
I didn't see that on the M4 - maybe the case for minor roads? And as you can still travel for work, I doubt this it true.
You do realise this comes in at 6.00pm tonight in North Wales
I went through areas ALREADY under these rules last week. There was no barrier. I know during the first lockdown there were police checks in areas - I am sceptical that that is the case now. Or indeed in Conwy when the new measures come into place.
"Can I travel through Conwy County Borough to reach a destination not in the Borough? If you have to travel along a road that passes through the area and you have no other reasonable option to travel to your destination, then this is allowed."
Not for leisure purposes
Its a direct quote from the document you linked FFS. Under Travel and public transport.
Anyone intending coming across the border from tonight will have to have a genuine reason including work and medical issues but not leisure and I expect this will be enforced
Strange that thus far this morning Sporting Index has failed to open its spread market on Trump/Biden ECVs. Not very helpful for those of us with open positions who might wish to trade them out.
At one time it was Spreadex who appeared to be the scaredy cats in terms of taking down their markets but that's no longer so. This morning in terms of ECV spreads they currently go: Biden ..... 298-306 Trump .... 232-240
Thanks PfP. I really should get a Spreadex account.
It may be Sporting are waiting for the Betfair price to settle. Trump is still drifting, albeit slowly. He's out to 2.64 now.
Just spoke to my daughter's school as she's at home isolating since one of her classmates tested positive yesterday. They have advised that the whole class is to stay home for a fortnight.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
Yep - that's 100% correct. You only go for a test if/ when there are symptoms and it's worth having a test to see if it's Covid or a common cold.
The common cold has completely different symptoms to COVID, the flu (as in actually influenza) has the most similar symptoms. Colds make people sniffle and phlegmy, COVID doesn't do that at all and if someone has cold like symptoms it's highly, highly unlikely that they have COVID.
The UK doesn't negotiate: Obstinate morons! Ideological nationalists! Isolationists!!
The UK does negotiate: CAPITULATION! SURRENDER!!
No it's that Brexiteers insist we hold all the cards and we'd get everything we want.
At every turn, we have got a deal because we capitulated. That is not holding all the cards - to say otherwise is just lying.
If you could pull your head out of your arse you'd note that the EU has made concessions on: insisting on the ECJ for disputes, following all its state aid rules and full dynamic alignment, and insisting on fishing quotas *exactly* as is.
We've made concessions on a single governance regime for the whole arrangement, accepting some state aid rules in principle (details TBC), and now a transition to a new fishing deal with a higher catch quota,
It's called a negotiation. I'm getting very bored of saying this: this is a negotiation where the strength of bartering power lies between 35-65 to 45-55 in the EU's favour DEPENDING on the issue/sector.
It is neither 100:0 to the EU or 0:100 to the UK.
You need to learn and accept this.
Why have we negotiated anything when we hold all the cards?
eh? Even if we did, which we don't, every negotiation even unequal involves give and take. The EU is in a stronger position but doesn't get everything.
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
You do not need to read my posts
I was reading Olly's post
Who said the same thing. As did CHB
In politics, and political debate, hollow threats and hollow promises are a quick way to destroy your own credibility. Especially if you start off on a lap of dishonour.
Strange that thus far this morning Sporting Index has failed to open its spread market on Trump/Biden ECVs. Not very helpful for those of us with open positions who might wish to trade them out.
At one time it was Spreadex who appeared to be the scaredy cats in terms of taking down their markets but that's no longer so. This morning in terms of ECV spreads they currently go: Biden ..... 298-306 Trump .... 232-240
Thanks PfP. I really should get a Spreadex account.
It may be Sporting are waiting for the Betfair price to settle. Trump is still drifting, albeit slowly. He's out to 2.64 now.
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Yes, it probably was unnecessarily personal, for which I apologise.
Nevertheless our country is in deep shit and there are many people, from Tory MPs through ordinary voters, who knew precisely what it was before they voluntarily jumped in, and took the rest of us with them. If you are their representative on a discussion site you are going to get some flak.
The problem with this site is people pretending they’re somehow being objective when they’re not.
I don't think true objectivity is possible.
But the options are not simply adopting extreme partisan positions.
Attempting objectivity is a worthy goal in itself even if not quite achievable and is more convincing to boot.
Given the human tendency to invent motivations and meanings to the words of others even if someone did achieve it no one would believe it in any case.
Bottom line I think clearly people lean in certain directions instinctively, but if they can try to keep an open mind that's better than just accepting their position is fixed.
The president has told us in innumerable ways that either he will be re-elected or he will delegitimize the vote by claiming that all mail-in ballots — a time-honored tradition that has ushered Republicans and Democrats into office and has been used by Trump himself — are invalid.
Trump’s motives could not be more transparent. If he does not win the Electoral College, he’ll muddy the results so that the outcome can be decided only by the Supreme Court or the House of Representatives (where each state delegation gets one vote). Trump has advantages in both right now, which he has boasted about for the past week.
I can’t say this any more clearly: Our democracy is in terrible danger — more danger than it has been since the Civil War, more danger than after Pearl Harbor, more danger than during the Cuban missile crisis and more danger than during Watergate.
Frankly I am getting rather tired of the snarky replies to my posts from one particular user, which go along the lines of “stop doing this”, “stop using hyperbole”, blah blah blah. If you’re going to criticise me at least get some variety in there.
With me you get a very obvious left wing perspective that is anti-Tory. It’s a shame the user who is the same but anti-Labour doesn’t also get the same criticism as he constantly gives to me. I will have to up my game.
It’s very boring this user pretending he is like the site police.
Frankly I am getting rather tired of the snarky replies to my posts from one particular user, which go along the lines of “stop doing this”, “stop using hyperbole”, blah blah blah. If you’re going to criticise me at least get some variety in there.
With me you get a very obvious left wing perspective that is anti-Tory. It’s a shame the user who is the same but anti-Labour doesn’t also get the same criticism as he constantly gives to me. I will have to up my game.
It’s very boring this user pretending he is like the site police.
Rise above.
edit: I recall effing and blinding at a couple of posters but it just made me think they'd think they'd won.
And I need to maintain my aura of smug satisfaction. Its my brand.
The problem with this site is people pretending they’re somehow being objective when they’re not.
Who gives a crap, seriously? No one is objective, at least that's how I view every comment. Everyone has their own beliefs and agenda.
It gets tedious when certain users act like they have all the wisdom and truth.
The solution is simple, rebut them with your superior wisdom and truth.
That, or take a deep breath and ignore it.
I often do, as I am sure you’ll see. Of course you’re not exactly impartial either when you’re pro-Tory.
Half jokingly. PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other. Countering someone's argument with your own is fine, but it gets really boring really fast when it just descends into an argument about each other.
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
You do not need to read my posts
I was reading Olly's post
Who said the same thing. As did CHB
In politics, and political debate, hollow threats and hollow promises are a quick way to destroy your own credibility. Especially if you start off on a lap of dishonour.
I have no care about your opinion
I value your opinion and theirs highly, please do keep providing it.
The problem with this site is people pretending they’re somehow being objective when they’re not.
Who gives a crap, seriously? No one is objective, at least that's how I view every comment. Everyone has their own beliefs and agenda.
It gets tedious when certain users act like they have all the wisdom and truth.
The solution is simple, rebut them with your superior wisdom and truth.
That, or take a deep breath and ignore it.
I often do, as I am sure you’ll see. Of course you’re not exactly impartial either when you’re pro-Tory.
Half jokingly. PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other. Countering someone's argument with your own is fine, but it gets really boring really fast when it just descends into an argument about each other.
And I have never once claimed I was impartial.
You making a judgment on me rebutting arguments is going to be obviously biased to the fact you’re going to naturally be inclined to disagree with them. There’s nothing wrong with that.
Frankly I am getting rather tired of the snarky replies to my posts from one particular user, which go along the lines of “stop doing this”, “stop using hyperbole”, blah blah blah. If you’re going to criticise me at least get some variety in there.
With me you get a very obvious left wing perspective that is anti-Tory. It’s a shame the user who is the same but anti-Labour doesn’t also get the same criticism as he constantly gives to me. I will have to up my game.
It’s very boring this user pretending he is like the site police.
Rise above.
edit: I recall effing and blinding at a couple of posters but it just made me think they'd think they'd won.
And I need to maintain my aura of smug satisfaction. Its my brand.
The problem with this site is people pretending they’re somehow being objective when they’re not.
Who gives a crap, seriously? No one is objective, at least that's how I view every comment. Everyone has their own beliefs and agenda.
It gets tedious when certain users act like they have all the wisdom and truth.
The solution is simple, rebut them with your superior wisdom and truth.
That, or take a deep breath and ignore it.
I often do, as I am sure you’ll see. Of course you’re not exactly impartial either when you’re pro-Tory.
Half jokingly. PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other. Countering someone's argument with your own is fine, but it gets really boring really fast when it just descends into an argument about each other.
And I have never once claimed I was impartial.
You making a judgment on me rebutting arguments is going to be obviously biased to the fact you’re going to naturally be inclined to disagree with them. There’s nothing wrong with that.
I'm saying that it's good to rebut arguments, aren't I?
Assuming that the next president market is a two donkey race (i.e. neither drops out) the book with BF is less than 100%.
1.66 Biden, 2.56 Trump (99.3% book).
There is value in this market - and despite recent shortenings in price I think Biden is a good value bet. It feels to me that Trump should be significantly longer than 6/4.
Edit: BF commissions of course.
The 538 model - which is more Trump friendly than most others - gives him a 22% chance. That's way longer than 6/4. Something is still supporting his price. Just a "feeling" that it will be much closer than the polls indicate, I suppose. It appears that the possibility of the polls being out the other way is being assigned a probability of near zero. I can't see why personally.
A question: I know the various models (538, Economist) take a number of factors into account in their modelling. Do they factor in vote suppression? If they don't, they are bound to underestimate the chance of Trump winning, and maybe punters are being more realistic in estimating the effect of suppression.
To the extent that opinion polls factor in turnout, based partly on what has happened in the past. I don't think they factor in any prediction of voter suppression being more effective this time around, in ways that aren't captured in the polling.
"It seeks to reflect the vote as cast on Election Day, assuming that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. It does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted."
Thanks for quoting that - interesting turn of phrase! I agree it would be difficult to quantify the effect, and it would need to done on a state-by-state basis, so they are no doubt wise to avoid trying to do it.
Just spoke to my daughter's school as she's at home isolating since one of her classmates tested positive yesterday. They have advised that the whole class is to stay home for a fortnight.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
Yep - that's 100% correct. You only go for a test if/ when there are symptoms and it's worth having a test to see if it's Covid or a common cold.
The common cold has completely different symptoms to COVID, the flu (as in actually influenza) has the most similar symptoms. Colds make people sniffle and phlegmy, COVID doesn't do that at all and if someone has cold like symptoms it's highly, highly unlikely that they have COVID.
Yes, my lad was feeling rough and took the day off school last Friday. He had a sore throat and runny nose and generally felt a bit rotten, but no fever and only the occasional cough. So I assumed it was just a heavy cold and didn't bother getting him tested. After being separated from another for 6 months, it's no wonder loads of kids are going down with even more than the usual September sniffles.
The problem with this site is people pretending they’re somehow being objective when they’re not.
Who gives a crap, seriously? No one is objective, at least that's how I view every comment. Everyone has their own beliefs and agenda.
It gets tedious when certain users act like they have all the wisdom and truth.
The solution is simple, rebut them with your superior wisdom and truth.
That, or take a deep breath and ignore it.
I often do, as I am sure you’ll see. Of course you’re not exactly impartial either when you’re pro-Tory.
Half jokingly. PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other. Countering someone's argument with your own is fine, but it gets really boring really fast when it just descends into an argument about each other.
And I have never once claimed I was impartial.
You making a judgment on me rebutting arguments is going to be obviously biased to the fact you’re going to naturally be inclined to disagree with them. There’s nothing wrong with that.
I'm saying that it's good to rebut arguments, aren't I?
I’m not putting it across very well.
I constantly argue against points, my point to you was that your judgment on the value of them and whether they contribute things is going to be biased to the fact you are inclined to agree with the person who I am arguing against (much of the time).
The way you do that is fine but the way others do it in their snarky way is getting on my nerves and yet I get attacked for calling it out rather than the user in question who just carries on adding nothing.
I’ve really got nothing else to add to this particular debate but I couldn’t just let this user carry on with their attitude.
PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other.
I disagree. Some of the best laughs I've had on here are when people are sticking the fucking hoof into each other. A tory blue-on-blue swedge is a particular treat.
It's almost like like Vote Leave and the Tories lied by omission.
It's almost like Remain didn't run a very good campaign.
If you're any sort of intelligent person you'll vote for the poorly run truthful campaign that will ultimately lead to competent Gov't rather than the bells and whistles lies.
Assuming that the next president market is a two donkey race (i.e. neither drops out) the book with BF is less than 100%.
1.66 Biden, 2.56 Trump (99.3% book).
There is value in this market - and despite recent shortenings in price I think Biden is a good value bet. It feels to me that Trump should be significantly longer than 6/4.
Edit: BF commissions of course.
The 538 model - which is more Trump friendly than most others - gives him a 22% chance. That's way longer than 6/4. Something is still supporting his price. Just a "feeling" that it will be much closer than the polls indicate, I suppose. It appears that the possibility of the polls being out the other way is being assigned a probability of near zero. I can't see why personally.
A question: I know the various models (538, Economist) take a number of factors into account in their modelling. Do they factor in vote suppression? If they don't, they are bound to underestimate the chance of Trump winning, and maybe punters are being more realistic in estimating the effect of suppression.
To the extent that opinion polls factor in turnout, based partly on what has happened in the past. I don't think they factor in any prediction of voter suppression being more effective this time around, in ways that aren't captured in the polling.
"It seeks to reflect the vote as cast on Election Day, assuming that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. It does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted."
Thanks for quoting that - interesting turn of phrase! I agree it would be difficult to quantify the effect, and it would need to done on a state-by-state basis, so they are no doubt wise to avoid trying to do it.
love the username. I went by DedicatedFenceSitter but got stuck with this lameness.
The problem with this site is people pretending they’re somehow being objective when they’re not.
Who gives a crap, seriously? No one is objective, at least that's how I view every comment. Everyone has their own beliefs and agenda.
It gets tedious when certain users act like they have all the wisdom and truth.
The solution is simple, rebut them with your superior wisdom and truth.
That, or take a deep breath and ignore it.
I often do, as I am sure you’ll see. Of course you’re not exactly impartial either when you’re pro-Tory.
Half jokingly. PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other. Countering someone's argument with your own is fine, but it gets really boring really fast when it just descends into an argument about each other.
And I have never once claimed I was impartial.
You making a judgment on me rebutting arguments is going to be obviously biased to the fact you’re going to naturally be inclined to disagree with them. There’s nothing wrong with that.
I'm saying that it's good to rebut arguments, aren't I?
I’m not putting it across very well.
I constantly argue against points, my point to you was that your judgment on the value of them and whether they contribute things is going to be biased to the fact you are inclined to agree with the person who I am arguing against (much of the time).
The way you do that is fine but the way others do it in their snarky way is getting on my nerves and yet I get attacked for calling it out rather than the user in question who just carries on adding nothing.
I’ve really got nothing else to add to this particular debate but I couldn’t just let this user carry on with their attitude.
I'm sorry if my comments come across that way. It's not directed at you specifically, it's just we are discussing it together so I am replying to you with a more general comment about everyone on all sides (and now I just sound too pious).
It's almost like like Vote Leave and the Tories lied by omission.
It's almost like Remain didn't run a very good campaign.
If you're any sort of intelligent person you'll vote for the poorly run truthful campaign that will ultimately lead to competent Gov't rather than the bells and whistles lies.
Surely the evidence to the contrary of this is just overwhelming?
When you look at what is going on, Starmer asking about racial inequalities right now, I mean FFS. Roger irrelevant.
A tactic I feel. Switch to something serious. Women dying in childbirth. To put Boris off his pre scripted peroration. The PM went for it anyway, but his heart wasn't in it.
Will it be worse this year? Perhaps. Could it decide a very close election? Maybe. Is it worth multiple percentage points compared with previous years? Feels unlikely but time may tell.
You are more sanguine then me - I hope you are right but I fear you are being optimistic.
The problem with this site is people pretending they’re somehow being objective when they’re not.
Who gives a crap, seriously? No one is objective, at least that's how I view every comment. Everyone has their own beliefs and agenda.
It gets tedious when certain users act like they have all the wisdom and truth.
The solution is simple, rebut them with your superior wisdom and truth.
That, or take a deep breath and ignore it.
I often do, as I am sure you’ll see. Of course you’re not exactly impartial either when you’re pro-Tory.
Half jokingly. PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other. Countering someone's argument with your own is fine, but it gets really boring really fast when it just descends into an argument about each other.
And I have never once claimed I was impartial.
You making a judgment on me rebutting arguments is going to be obviously biased to the fact you’re going to naturally be inclined to disagree with them. There’s nothing wrong with that.
I'm saying that it's good to rebut arguments, aren't I?
I’m not putting it across very well.
I constantly argue against points, my point to you was that your judgment on the value of them and whether they contribute things is going to be biased to the fact you are inclined to agree with the person who I am arguing against (much of the time).
The way you do that is fine but the way others do it in their snarky way is getting on my nerves and yet I get attacked for calling it out rather than the user in question who just carries on adding nothing.
I’ve really got nothing else to add to this particular debate but I couldn’t just let this user carry on with their attitude.
I'm sorry if my comments come across that way. It's not directed at you specifically, it's just we are discussing it together so I am replying to you with a more general comment about everyone on all sides (and now I just sound too pious).
No you come across fine, if more people were like you I wouldn't mind. I don't agree with basically anything you say but I don't get anything snarky in your responses which is what annoys me.
I try to be kind to everyone and where I have fallen short I have always apologised and happy to make that clear again. But others just continually go on and then have the arrogance to tell others what to do.
I'm going to take your advice and take a deep breath and move on. Thanks for the discussion.
PB is at its best when we are debating the issues, not each other.
I disagree. Some of the best laughs I've had on here are when people are sticking the fucking hoof into each other. A tory blue-on-blue swedge is a particular treat.
Don't know if this was posted over the last day or so, but very detailed paper out of Qatar on Covid re-infection. Definitely a thing, but the incidence (at least for a few months after first infection) is very low indeed.
Assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in an intense re-exposure setting https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20179457v2.full.pdf ...Results: Out of 133,266 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, 243 persons (0.18%) had at least one subsequent positive swab ≥45 days after the first-positive swab. Of these, 54 cases (22.2%) had strong or good evidence for reinfection. Median time between first and reinfection swab was 64.5 days (range: 45-129). Twenty-three of the 54 cases (42.6%) were diagnosed at a health facility suggesting presence of symptoms, while 31 (57.4%) were identified incidentally through random testing campaigns/surveys or contact tracing. Only one person was hospitalized at time of reinfection, but still with mild infection. No deaths were recorded. Viral genome sequencing confirmed four out of 12 cases with available genetic evidence. Risk of reinfection was estimated at 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) per 10,000 person-weeks. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon suggestive of a strong protective immunity against reinfection that lasts for at least a few months post primary infection...
So today I have my first "face-to-face" lectures. I will be required to wear a mask the entire time and sit 2m away from my fellow students.
However if I chat to my fellow students outside the building afterwards I risk being thrown out of university, as we are required to follow not just the laws, but also the guidelines, that state no outdoor socialising with those outside my household.
Cool.
So don't chat afterwards then. What's the issue?
The issue is that it is fecking ridiculous and unnecessary. Outdoor socialising is massively less risky than indoors and if you are going to allow indoor mixing between households in offices, schools and universities then not allowing outdoor mixing makes absolutely no sense at all.
I have supported the Government for much of this pandemic and I take the whole thing very seriously. But the Government is turning the whole thing into a joke through utter ineptitude. If laws clearly don't make sense then they become counterproductive.
If mixing were being encouraged absolutely, though I may be wrong but I believe the guidance is that in the Northeast where Gallowgate is there isn't supposed to be either indoor or outdoor mixing?
Gallowgate said that inside they were required to wear a mask at all times and sit 2 metres away, so no indoor mixing from that.
And yet they are allowed to mix in classrooms, workplaces and universities. It is incoherent.
I thought he said they're supposed to sit 2 metres apart and with a mask on - is that mixing in your eyes?
Those are not the rules in most universities and workplaces and certainly not in classrooms. Like I said - incoherent.
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Yes, it probably was unnecessarily personal, for which I apologise.
Nevertheless our country is in deep shit and there are many people, from Tory MPs through ordinary voters, who knew precisely what it was before they voluntarily jumped in, and took the rest of us with them. If you are their representative on a discussion site you are going to get some flak.
I appreciate your apology and would say that while I am a member of the conservative party I am a long way from agreeing with all they do and absolutely do not support Boris remaining in office post 31st December
I try to comment honestly and am not tribal
I do think that on covid and away from the noise HMG has done as well as most anyone else would have and I am really hoping a deal comes in the next 2 weeks with the EU
I will be very worried if we no deal and consider that in this covid crisis its is madness on both sides
Assuming that the next president market is a two donkey race (i.e. neither drops out) the book with BF is less than 100%.
1.66 Biden, 2.56 Trump (99.3% book).
There is value in this market - and despite recent shortenings in price I think Biden is a good value bet. It feels to me that Trump should be significantly longer than 6/4.
Edit: BF commissions of course.
The 538 model - which is more Trump friendly than most others - gives him a 22% chance. That's way longer than 6/4. Something is still supporting his price. Just a "feeling" that it will be much closer than the polls indicate, I suppose. It appears that the possibility of the polls being out the other way is being assigned a probability of near zero. I can't see why personally.
A question: I know the various models (538, Economist) take a number of factors into account in their modelling. Do they factor in vote suppression? If they don't, they are bound to underestimate the chance of Trump winning, and maybe punters are being more realistic in estimating the effect of suppression.
To the extent that opinion polls factor in turnout, based partly on what has happened in the past. I don't think they factor in any prediction of voter suppression being more effective this time around, in ways that aren't captured in the polling.
"It seeks to reflect the vote as cast on Election Day, assuming that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. It does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted."
Thanks for quoting that - interesting turn of phrase! I agree it would be difficult to quantify the effect, and it would need to done on a state-by-state basis, so they are no doubt wise to avoid trying to do it.
love the username. I went by DedicatedFenceSitter but got stuck with this lameness.
I thought you changed your previous username because everybody kept PM ing you about a better than half price sofa
When you look at what is going on, Starmer asking about racial inequalities right now, I mean FFS. Roger irrelevant.
A tactic I feel. Switch to something serious. Women dying in childbirth. To put Boris off his pre scripted peroration. The PM went for it anyway, but his heart wasn't in it.
Johnson belatedly discovered the "incumbents defence" for this PMQs: "I am busy protecting my fellow Britons. What's he's doing?". It might be nonsense, but it is difficult for challengers to get traction on. In fact apart from the last question, Starmer raised issues that exercise people of Johnson's party and which have been well aired on this forum. Johnson didn't have any answers but maybe he doesn't need to.
Unusually Blackford had a couple of good PMQ questions. Johnson had to go into super lying bluster mode, which showed they hit home.
"That’s why the fast disappearing hospitality, entertainment, retail and sports sectors need urgently to seek a judicial review of the Government’s approach"
Even Theresa May looks a paragon of competence against this lot
Just spoke to my daughter's school as she's at home isolating since one of her classmates tested positive yesterday. They have advised that the whole class is to stay home for a fortnight.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
Yep - that's 100% correct. You only go for a test if/ when there are symptoms and it's worth having a test to see if it's Covid or a common cold.
There are some real flaws in the thinking in this system though.
My neighbour is a practice nurse who this week was supposed to be giving flu jabs to 400 over 65s. Last weekend her teenage daughter got a cold. Whenever she gets a cold she always gets swollen glands due to a rapid secondary infection and a temperature spike. This is well known by both mother and the local GP where she is the nurse.
So she contacts the GP to arrange some anti-biotics which are used to treat the secondary infection. The GP then says that she cannot come in to work as they cannot risk it being Covid - even though everyone knows it is just the way the child presents with a cold. Clearly they just can't take the chance when the mother is going to be have close contact with 400 odd vulnerable people. No coming back to work until the child has had a test.
All this makes sense.
But then trying to get a test proves almost impossible. The mother should be a priority as she is a frontline essential medical worker. But she is not the one who is needing the test. The daughter is the one who needs the test and she is not an essential worker. So a 3 day delay ensues during which the mother cannot work because she has to self isolate. Oh and the child's sister has to miss school and the husband has to stay at home from his military job.
Test eventually cam back negative. But of course this is being repeated all over the country.
They really ned to get this testing thing sorted out.
Some genuinely heart rending stories of people suffering with cancer being ignored by the NHS on the radio this morning.
But hey, the virus that's killing fewer than flu, right?
How long have I been saying that every other illness is being ignored in favour of Covid. Deaths were above average again in the ONS stats. The madness has to stop. Get Surgeries and Hospitals back to treating people, not just using Covid as an excuse to do nothing.
What time is Boris and the two egg heads going their press conference? And any idea what they are going to talk about?
I read it was 5pm, but that may have changed in the interim.
Johnson: blather, blather, dear old blighty, on the beaches, blather, blather... repeat
The scientists: If the cases numbers rise exponentially then the model we are still using despite its failure to model what actually happened tells us 100,000 people will die this winter.
Some genuinely heart rending stories of people suffering with cancer being ignored by the NHS on the radio this morning.
But hey, the virus that's killing fewer than flu, right?
How long have I been saying that every other illness is being ignored in favour of Covid. Deaths were above average again in the ONS stats. The madness has to stop. Get Surgeries and Hospitals back to treating people, not just using Covid as an excuse to do nothing.
Flu is killing ten times as many people at the moment.
It's almost like like Vote Leave and the Tories lied by omission.
It's almost like Remain didn't run a very good campaign.
If you're any sort of intelligent person you'll vote for the poorly run truthful campaign that will ultimately lead to competent Gov't rather than the bells and whistles lies.
Surely the evidence to the contrary of this is just overwhelming?
Oh the poorly run truthful campaign may well lose but I'm talking about those of use who should know better.
Some genuinely heart rending stories of people suffering with cancer being ignored by the NHS on the radio this morning.
But hey, the virus that's killing fewer than flu, right?
How long have I been saying that every other illness is being ignored in favour of Covid. Deaths were above average again in the ONS stats. The madness has to stop. Get Surgeries and Hospitals back to treating people, not just using Covid as an excuse to do nothing.
Some people on here are affronted when persons such as Sir Karel Sikoria ask impertinent questions about the NHS's criminal and disgusting neglect of non-covid mental and physical illness.
Ah well, another failure by the Tories on the basis of lies.
This Government is so utterly incompetent it is quite extraordinary, a cabinet full of morons and a PM unfit for his job. Definitely the worst Government of my lifetime.
And to top it all off, they've made a complete mess of COVID. Awards all round!
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Yes, it probably was unnecessarily personal, for which I apologise.
Nevertheless our country is in deep shit and there are many people, from Tory MPs through ordinary voters, who knew precisely what it was before they voluntarily jumped in, and took the rest of us with them. If you are their representative on a discussion site you are going to get some flak.
I appreciate your apology and would say that while I am a member of the conservative party I am a long way from agreeing with all they do and absolutely do not support Boris remaining in office post 31st December
I try to comment honestly and am not tribal
I do think that on covid and away from the noise HMG has done as well as most anyone else would have and I am really hoping a deal comes in the next 2 weeks with the EU
I will be very worried if we no deal and consider that in this covid crisis its is madness on both sides
What's so special about December 31st?
If Johnson is terrible, why leave him in post for the most politically critical three months of most of our lifetimes?
If he's good enough to deal with that, why kick him out the day after?
Some genuinely heart rending stories of people suffering with cancer being ignored by the NHS on the radio this morning.
But hey, the virus that's killing fewer than flu, right?
How long have I been saying that every other illness is being ignored in favour of Covid. Deaths were above average again in the ONS stats. The madness has to stop. Get Surgeries and Hospitals back to treating people, not just using Covid as an excuse to do nothing.
Some people on here are affronted when persons such as Sir Karel Sikoria ask impertinent questions about the NHS's criminal and disgusting neglect of non-covid mental and physical illness.
Its outrageous.
It is completely beyond me, its like diseases and conditions that were around before 2020 no longer matter. Covid is king.
What time is Boris and the two egg heads going their press conference? And any idea what they are going to talk about?
I read it was 5pm, but that may have changed in the interim.
Johnson: blather, blather, dear old blighty, on the beaches, blather, blather... repeat
The scientists: If the cases numbers rise exponentially then the model we are still using despite its failure to model what actually happened tells us 100,000 people will die this winter.
Parts of the NHS are using corona as a shield to control and filter access to a trickle.
We are close to getting the American system of health care by default, except that we will be paying twice.
The Chinese have been doing this for months. And we could have set this up over the summer. ...Much of our testing capacity is taken up by what is essentially asymptomatic screening, whether it is testing of hospital inpatients and staff, testing in care homes, or lack of triage for members of the public arriving at test centres. At the same time there is no surveillance supporting schools, universities, and businesses as they attempt to return to normal.
Pooled sampling of what is essentially asymptomatic swabs would allow rolling surveillance programmes in schools, care homes, universities and colleges, and high-risk factory settings without having a major impact on the daily covid-19 test capacity in the UK. These pooled samples could be tested in labs dedicated to pooled sample testing meaning well-established labs would not need to suddenly change or adapt their current automated protocols....
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Yes, it probably was unnecessarily personal, for which I apologise.
Nevertheless our country is in deep shit and there are many people, from Tory MPs through ordinary voters, who knew precisely what it was before they voluntarily jumped in, and took the rest of us with them. If you are their representative on a discussion site you are going to get some flak.
I appreciate your apology and would say that while I am a member of the conservative party I am a long way from agreeing with all they do and absolutely do not support Boris remaining in office post 31st December
I try to comment honestly and am not tribal
I do think that on covid and away from the noise HMG has done as well as most anyone else would have and I am really hoping a deal comes in the next 2 weeks with the EU
I will be very worried if we no deal and consider that in this covid crisis its is madness on both sides
What's so special about December 31st?
If Johnson is terrible, why leave him in post for the most politically critical three months of most of our lifetimes?
If he's good enough to deal with that, why kick him out the day after?
It is not within my power to do that and there cannot be any politician who wants the job before 2021
Just spoke to my daughter's school as she's at home isolating since one of her classmates tested positive yesterday. They have advised that the whole class is to stay home for a fortnight.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
Yep - that's 100% correct. You only go for a test if/ when there are symptoms and it's worth having a test to see if it's Covid or a common cold.
There are some real flaws in the thinking in this system though.
My neighbour is a practice nurse who this week was supposed to be giving flu jabs to 400 over 65s. Last weekend her teenage daughter got a cold. Whenever she gets a cold she always gets swollen glands due to a rapid secondary infection and a temperature spike. This is well known by both mother and the local GP where she is the nurse.
So she contacts the GP to arrange some anti-biotics which are used to treat the secondary infection. The GP then says that she cannot come in to work as they cannot risk it being Covid - even though everyone knows it is just the way the child presents with a cold. Clearly they just can't take the chance when the mother is going to be have close contact with 400 odd vulnerable people. No coming back to work until the child has had a test.
All this makes sense.
But then trying to get a test proves almost impossible. The mother should be a priority as she is a frontline essential medical worker. But she is not the one who is needing the test. The daughter is the one who needs the test and she is not an essential worker. So a 3 day delay ensues during which the mother cannot work because she has to self isolate. Oh and the child's sister has to miss school and the husband has to stay at home from his military job.
Test eventually cam back negative. But of course this is being repeated all over the country.
They really ned to get this testing thing sorted out.
And that was my point. The Covid criteria are currently such that if you have a cough (after the sniffles from the cold have disappeared) you need to have a test even though it was obvious where it comes from.
Just spoke to my daughter's school as she's at home isolating since one of her classmates tested positive yesterday. They have advised that the whole class is to stay home for a fortnight.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
Yep - that's 100% correct. You only go for a test if/ when there are symptoms and it's worth having a test to see if it's Covid or a common cold.
There are some real flaws in the thinking in this system though.
My neighbour is a practice nurse who this week was supposed to be giving flu jabs to 400 over 65s. Last weekend her teenage daughter got a cold. Whenever she gets a cold she always gets swollen glands due to a rapid secondary infection and a temperature spike. This is well known by both mother and the local GP where she is the nurse.
So she contacts the GP to arrange some anti-biotics which are used to treat the secondary infection. The GP then says that she cannot come in to work as they cannot risk it being Covid - even though everyone knows it is just the way the child presents with a cold. Clearly they just can't take the chance when the mother is going to be have close contact with 400 odd vulnerable people. No coming back to work until the child has had a test.
All this makes sense.
But then trying to get a test proves almost impossible. The mother should be a priority as she is a frontline essential medical worker. But she is not the one who is needing the test. The daughter is the one who needs the test and she is not an essential worker. So a 3 day delay ensues during which the mother cannot work because she has to self isolate. Oh and the child's sister has to miss school and the husband has to stay at home from his military job.
Test eventually cam back negative. But of course this is being repeated all over the country.
They really ned to get this testing thing sorted out.
Everyone seems quite happy to accept that covid has a wide range of differing impacts on different people.
So do colds. Some just get sniffles, others do indeed get a high temperature and/or a persistent cough from colds. I am either catching flu several times a year (ridiculously unlikely and take the flu jab) or when I catch a cold I nearly always have a high temperature. For several years after getting bronchitis once, I also had a persistent cough for a few days with each cold, fortunately that no longer happens.
Those who can clearly tell the difference between cold and covid symptoms are lucky and perhaps in the majority but not representative of everyone.
The Chinese have been doing this for months. And we could have set this up over the summer. ...Much of our testing capacity is taken up by what is essentially asymptomatic screening, whether it is testing of hospital inpatients and staff, testing in care homes, or lack of triage for members of the public arriving at test centres. At the same time there is no surveillance supporting schools, universities, and businesses as they attempt to return to normal.
Pooled sampling of what is essentially asymptomatic swabs would allow rolling surveillance programmes in schools, care homes, universities and colleges, and high-risk factory settings without having a major impact on the daily covid-19 test capacity in the UK. These pooled samples could be tested in labs dedicated to pooled sample testing meaning well-established labs would not need to suddenly change or adapt their current automated protocols....
I see Cambridge University are aiming to test all students weekly, using pooled testing of those who share a kitchen or whatever. It makes sense to do it that way when you expect the vast majority of results to be negative. (Of course it's a different situation to most universities, since most students live in college.)
Some genuinely heart rending stories of people suffering with cancer being ignored by the NHS on the radio this morning.
But hey, the virus that's killing fewer than flu, right?
How long have I been saying that every other illness is being ignored in favour of Covid. Deaths were above average again in the ONS stats. The madness has to stop. Get Surgeries and Hospitals back to treating people, not just using Covid as an excuse to do nothing.
Some people on here are affronted when persons such as Sir Karel Sikoria ask impertinent questions about the NHS's criminal and disgusting neglect of non-covid mental and physical illness.
Its outrageous.
Stuff like black women dying in childbirth? Irrelevant, surely?
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Yes, it probably was unnecessarily personal, for which I apologise.
Nevertheless our country is in deep shit and there are many people, from Tory MPs through ordinary voters, who knew precisely what it was before they voluntarily jumped in, and took the rest of us with them. If you are their representative on a discussion site you are going to get some flak.
I appreciate your apology and would say that while I am a member of the conservative party I am a long way from agreeing with all they do and absolutely do not support Boris remaining in office post 31st December
I try to comment honestly and am not tribal
I do think that on covid and away from the noise HMG has done as well as most anyone else would have and I am really hoping a deal comes in the next 2 weeks with the EU
I will be very worried if we no deal and consider that in this covid crisis its is madness on both sides
What's so special about December 31st?
If Johnson is terrible, why leave him in post for the most politically critical three months of most of our lifetimes?
If he's good enough to deal with that, why kick him out the day after?
It is not within my power to do that and there cannot be any politician who wants the job before 2021
Why don't you support Johnson going now and Rishi taking over?
Britain has offered a three-year transition period for European fishing fleets to allow them to prepare for the post-Brexit changes as part of an 11th-hour deal sweetener.
Lol, an indefinite transition that will last forever.
But we hold all the cards, will Philip and HYUFD now resign from the Tory Party?
Eminently sensible and time dated
You do need to reduce your hyperbole
Not surprised to see you eating up the Government's words.
A three year transition is code for kick the can down the road.
I presume you opposed the backstop on the same grounds or is that Johnson is in charge so now transitions are a great idea?
You are all over the place
I am happy for concessions on either side to get a deal
And if a three year fishing transition is agreed and passes the European Parliament time to move on
I see you're back to BoJo superfan status then, sad to see.
I am not and this is more hyperbole from you
And from a Keir fanboy
At least I don't pretend to "lose confidence" in the Government every day before going back to them again the next.
The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
At least I know what I am.
One thing you need to learn is that everything HMG does is not wrong and credit applies where it is due
To be fair to CHB you did start out as a remainer who was appalled at the notion of No Deal and you did consider that Johnson was not fit to be PM.
I agree that you do regularly criticise the government but it all sounds a bit hollow because you inevitably end up falling back into line.
Personally if I felt that a party was headed by someone who is not fit to lead it and was willing to take us down a No Deal path that I believe would be a disaster then I would resign from that party - that is a path many of us took when Corbyn led Labour.
Big_G is the type who enjoys sitting in the corner of the bar sounding off about how he's going to do this and going to do that, while those sitting around who know him just nod and smile.
That is just nasty
It isn't nasty, just true. You spent most of 2019 doing just that, and now you are at it again.
It's an unnecessarily personal attack on someone.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
Yes, it probably was unnecessarily personal, for which I apologise.
Nevertheless our country is in deep shit and there are many people, from Tory MPs through ordinary voters, who knew precisely what it was before they voluntarily jumped in, and took the rest of us with them. If you are their representative on a discussion site you are going to get some flak.
I appreciate your apology and would say that while I am a member of the conservative party I am a long way from agreeing with all they do and absolutely do not support Boris remaining in office post 31st December
I try to comment honestly and am not tribal
I do think that on covid and away from the noise HMG has done as well as most anyone else would have and I am really hoping a deal comes in the next 2 weeks with the EU
I will be very worried if we no deal and consider that in this covid crisis its is madness on both sides
What's so special about December 31st?
If Johnson is terrible, why leave him in post for the most politically critical three months of most of our lifetimes?
If he's good enough to deal with that, why kick him out the day after?
It is not within my power to do that and there cannot be any politician who wants the job before 2021
The Goldman Sachs Elf would step over Johnson's bloated cirose to be PM today.
The Chinese have been doing this for months. And we could have set this up over the summer. ...Much of our testing capacity is taken up by what is essentially asymptomatic screening, whether it is testing of hospital inpatients and staff, testing in care homes, or lack of triage for members of the public arriving at test centres. At the same time there is no surveillance supporting schools, universities, and businesses as they attempt to return to normal.
Pooled sampling of what is essentially asymptomatic swabs would allow rolling surveillance programmes in schools, care homes, universities and colleges, and high-risk factory settings without having a major impact on the daily covid-19 test capacity in the UK. These pooled samples could be tested in labs dedicated to pooled sample testing meaning well-established labs would not need to suddenly change or adapt their current automated protocols....
I am sure with Superbrain Cummings in charge of HMG and top business leader Harding heading up Test and Trace this has all been recognised and pooled sample testing put in place as part of our world-beating testing regime many months ago.
Trump plans big Wisconsin rallies despite White House task force calls for ‘maximal’ social distancing in the state https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-wisconsin-rallies-coronavirus/2020/09/30/edf25c70-027c-11eb-b7ed-141dd88560ea_story.html ...Wisconsin is listed in the document as the state with the third-highest rate of new cases in the country, with 243 new cases per 100,000 people over the previous week, about 2.6 times greater than the national average. Ahead of Trump’s scheduled rally in Green Bay, the Bellin Health System said Tuesday that its hospital in that city is at 94 percent capacity as covid-19 continues to spike in the community....
Comments
If that mismatch increases, then it will not be captured by the model. I think this is a risk.
PB is at its most tedious when it is talking about each other, rather than discussing the issues/events of the day. And yes, this is adding to that tedium.
"Can I travel through Conwy County Borough to reach a destination not in the Borough?
If you have to travel along a road that passes through the area and you have no other reasonable option to travel to your destination, then this is allowed."
I think it would be wrong to account for it, just as it would be wrong to account for differential mail-in votes before the numbers are known and which could easily swing things a different way.
Btw, I do not think voter suppression is likely to be a big factor. For all its faults, the US is still a proper democracy and knows how to run elections.
I don't think they factor in any prediction of voter suppression being more effective this time around, in ways that aren't captured in the polling.
There's an article on the 538 model methodology here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/
which explicitly excludes "shenanigans":
"It seeks to reflect the vote as cast on Election Day, assuming that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. It does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted."
Who said the same thing. As did CHB
In politics, and political debate, hollow threats and hollow promises are a quick way to destroy your own credibility. Especially if you start off on a lap of dishonour.
And they are correct in that stance.
There is no suggestion we should book a test etc and even if we do she can't return to school until the fortnight is up. Simply a fortnight off school and home learning up up on their website for that period.
So far she has no symptoms and fingers crossed it stays that way.
http://cliffordsinger.com/files/Hearts-Minds-Votes.pdf
Will it be worse this year? Perhaps. Could it decided a very close election? Maybe. Is it worth multiple percentage points compared with previous years? Feels unlikely but time may tell.
I do think more of what is influencing the odds is recency bias - the most recent Presidential election was better for the GOP (and specifically Trump) than most predicted, and the electoral college was very helpful to him in practice. Punters are possibly right to be wary due to that.
But it probably overweights 2016... in 2012, GOP underperformed the final polls, and the electoral college gave a slight advantage to Obama (i.e. a uniform national swing sufficient for Romney very narrowly to win the popular vote would NOT have been quite enough to see him become President). Completely fair to say 2016 is more relevant (notably as Trump is candidate again), but worth remembering elections did happen before 2016 and patterns differed a little.
It may be Sporting are waiting for the Betfair price to settle. Trump is still drifting, albeit slowly. He's out to 2.64 now.
Maybe.
Nevertheless our country is in deep shit and there are many people, from Tory MPs through ordinary voters, who knew precisely what it was before they voluntarily jumped in, and took the rest of us with them. If you are their representative on a discussion site you are going to get some flak.
But the options are not simply adopting extreme partisan positions.
Attempting objectivity is a worthy goal in itself even if not quite achievable and is more convincing to boot.
Given the human tendency to invent motivations and meanings to the words of others even if someone did achieve it no one would believe it in any case.
Bottom line I think clearly people lean in certain directions instinctively, but if they can try to keep an open mind that's better than just accepting their position is fixed.
Trump’s motives could not be more transparent. If he does not win the Electoral College, he’ll muddy the results so that the outcome can be decided only by the Supreme Court or the House of Representatives (where each state delegation gets one vote). Trump has advantages in both right now, which he has boasted about for the past week.
I can’t say this any more clearly: Our democracy is in terrible danger — more danger than it has been since the Civil War, more danger than after Pearl Harbor, more danger than during the Cuban missile crisis and more danger than during Watergate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/opinion/trump-election-fraud-2020.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
With me you get a very obvious left wing perspective that is anti-Tory. It’s a shame the user who is the same but anti-Labour doesn’t also get the same criticism as he constantly gives to me. I will have to up my game.
It’s very boring this user pretending he is like the site police.
That, or take a deep breath and ignore it.
And then there would be no need for this board. Nor quite a lot else.
edit: I recall effing and blinding at a couple of posters but it just made me think they'd think they'd won.
And I need to maintain my aura of smug satisfaction. Its my brand.
And I have never once claimed I was impartial.
I constantly argue against points, my point to you was that your judgment on the value of them and whether they contribute things is going to be biased to the fact you are inclined to agree with the person who I am arguing against (much of the time).
The way you do that is fine but the way others do it in their snarky way is getting on my nerves and yet I get attacked for calling it out rather than the user in question who just carries on adding nothing.
I’ve really got nothing else to add to this particular debate but I couldn’t just let this user carry on with their attitude.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54346001
The PM went for it anyway, but his heart wasn't in it.
I try to be kind to everyone and where I have fallen short I have always apologised and happy to make that clear again. But others just continually go on and then have the arrogance to tell others what to do.
I'm going to take your advice and take a deep breath and move on. Thanks for the discussion.
Optimistic, unless they are missing a colon and meant 20:24.
Definitely a thing, but the incidence (at least for a few months after first infection) is very low indeed.
Assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in an intense re-exposure setting
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20179457v2.full.pdf
...Results: Out of 133,266 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, 243 persons (0.18%) had at least one subsequent positive swab ≥45 days after the first-positive swab. Of these, 54 cases (22.2%) had strong or good evidence for reinfection. Median time between first and reinfection swab was 64.5 days (range: 45-129). Twenty-three of the 54 cases (42.6%) were diagnosed at a health facility suggesting presence of symptoms, while 31 (57.4%) were identified incidentally through random testing campaigns/surveys or contact tracing. Only one person was hospitalized at time of reinfection, but still with mild infection. No deaths were recorded. Viral genome sequencing confirmed four out of 12 cases with available genetic evidence. Risk of reinfection was estimated at 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02%) and incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.28-0.47) per 10,000 person-weeks.
Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 reinfection can occur but is a rare phenomenon suggestive of a strong protective immunity against reinfection that lasts for at least a few months post primary infection...
https://twitter.com/ciaolivia/status/1311151062267473921
Women. Black. Childbirth. A litany of trivia.
Well makes London living pointless
I try to comment honestly and am not tribal
I do think that on covid and away from the noise HMG has done as well as most anyone else would have and I am really hoping a deal comes in the next 2 weeks with the EU
I will be very worried if we no deal and consider that in this covid crisis its is madness on both sides
Unusually Blackford had a couple of good PMQ questions. Johnson had to go into super lying bluster mode, which showed they hit home.
But hey, the virus that's killing fewer than flu, right?
Even Theresa May looks a paragon of competence against this lot
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/29/even-theresa-may-looks-paragon-competence-against-lot/
Is it a vaccine, is it a vacciiiiiiiine.....
My neighbour is a practice nurse who this week was supposed to be giving flu jabs to 400 over 65s. Last weekend her teenage daughter got a cold. Whenever she gets a cold she always gets swollen glands due to a rapid secondary infection and a temperature spike. This is well known by both mother and the local GP where she is the nurse.
So she contacts the GP to arrange some anti-biotics which are used to treat the secondary infection. The GP then says that she cannot come in to work as they cannot risk it being Covid - even though everyone knows it is just the way the child presents with a cold. Clearly they just can't take the chance when the mother is going to be have close contact with 400 odd vulnerable people. No coming back to work until the child has had a test.
All this makes sense.
But then trying to get a test proves almost impossible. The mother should be a priority as she is a frontline essential medical worker. But she is not the one who is needing the test. The daughter is the one who needs the test and she is not an essential worker. So a 3 day delay ensues during which the mother cannot work because she has to self isolate. Oh and the child's sister has to miss school and the husband has to stay at home from his military job.
Test eventually cam back negative. But of course this is being repeated all over the country.
They really ned to get this testing thing sorted out.
The scientists: If the cases numbers rise exponentially then the model we are still using despite its failure to model what actually happened tells us 100,000 people will die this winter.
Its outrageous.
Ah well, another failure by the Tories on the basis of lies.
This Government is so utterly incompetent it is quite extraordinary, a cabinet full of morons and a PM unfit for his job. Definitely the worst Government of my lifetime.
And to top it all off, they've made a complete mess of COVID. Awards all round!
If Johnson is terrible, why leave him in post for the most politically critical three months of most of our lifetimes?
If he's good enough to deal with that, why kick him out the day after?
We are close to getting the American system of health care by default, except that we will be paying twice.
And we could have set this up over the summer.
...Much of our testing capacity is taken up by what is essentially asymptomatic screening, whether it is testing of hospital inpatients and staff, testing in care homes, or lack of triage for members of the public arriving at test centres. At the same time there is no surveillance supporting schools, universities, and businesses as they attempt to return to normal.
Pooled sampling of what is essentially asymptomatic swabs would allow rolling surveillance programmes in schools, care homes, universities and colleges, and high-risk factory settings without having a major impact on the daily covid-19 test capacity in the UK. These pooled samples could be tested in labs dedicated to pooled sample testing meaning well-established labs would not need to suddenly change or adapt their current automated protocols....
So do colds. Some just get sniffles, others do indeed get a high temperature and/or a persistent cough from colds. I am either catching flu several times a year (ridiculously unlikely and take the flu jab) or when I catch a cold I nearly always have a high temperature. For several years after getting bronchitis once, I also had a persistent cough for a few days with each cold, fortunately that no longer happens.
Those who can clearly tell the difference between cold and covid symptoms are lucky and perhaps in the majority but not representative of everyone.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-wisconsin-rallies-coronavirus/2020/09/30/edf25c70-027c-11eb-b7ed-141dd88560ea_story.html
...Wisconsin is listed in the document as the state with the third-highest rate of new cases in the country, with 243 new cases per 100,000 people over the previous week, about 2.6 times greater than the national average. Ahead of Trump’s scheduled rally in Green Bay, the Bellin Health System said Tuesday that its hospital in that city is at 94 percent capacity as covid-19 continues to spike in the community....