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2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1 – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Efficacy of masks and face coverings in controlling outward aerosol particle emission from expiratory activities
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-72798-7
    ... Although mask wearing is intended, in part, to protect others from exhaled, virus-containing particles, few studies have examined particle emission by mask-wearers into the surrounding air. Here, we measured outward emissions of micron-scale aerosol particles by healthy humans performing various expiratory activities while wearing different types of medical-grade or homemade masks. Both surgical masks and unvented KN95 respirators, even without fit-testing, reduce the outward particle emission rates by 90% and 74% on average during speaking and coughing, respectively, compared to wearing no mask, corroborating their effectiveness at reducing outward emission. These masks similarly decreased the outward particle emission of a coughing superemitter, who for unclear reasons emitted up to two orders of magnitude more expiratory particles via coughing than average. In contrast, shedding of non-expiratory micron-scale particulates from friable cellulosic fibers in homemade cotton-fabric masks confounded explicit determination of their efficacy at reducing expiratory particle emission. Audio analysis of the speech and coughing intensity confirmed that people speak more loudly, but do not cough more loudly, when wearing a mask. Further work is needed to establish the efficacy of cloth masks at blocking expiratory particles for speech and coughing at varied intensity and to assess whether virus-contaminated fabrics can generate aerosolized fomites, but the results strongly corroborate the efficacy of medical-grade masks and highlight the importance of regular washing of homemade masks...
  • Dunno about you guys, but the Scottish TV remake of 'Fresh Meat' is going to be pretty boring I reckon.

    In that show, weren't they supposed to be at Manchester Met?

    BBC News - Manchester Metropolitan University students forced into lockdown
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54289648
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Dunno about you guys, but the Scottish TV remake of 'Fresh Meat' is going to be pretty boring I reckon.

    I’m rewatching Fresh Meat as we speak and I had forgotten how hilarious it was.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Dunno about you guys, but the Scottish TV remake of 'Fresh Meat' is going to be pretty boring I reckon.

    I’m rewatching Fresh Meat as we speak and I had forgotten how hilarious it was.
    Indeed, but do you find it difficult to laugh when you know what some students are going through now? brutal.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Good piece by Graham Brady in Telegraph.


    "We risk forsaking liberties so many died to preserve"

    "Suddenly we were "flattening the curve" instead. Now we have moved from "flattening the second hump of the camel" to "suppressing the virus until we have a vaccine" within a week. All of this has been decided behind closed doors without parliamentary debate or approval."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/09/26/risk-forsaking-liberties-many-died-preserve/



    Parliaments must debate these restrictions on our lives.



    I'm in favour, I suppose, of Parliament voting on any new COVID-19 restrictions. But let's have less of this "people died for these freedoms" stuff. I do have relatives who died in WW2, as I suspect most of us do. I think it unlikely, and offensive, to suggest that they died in order that I could have 5 people to dinner.
    Surely they died for you to be able to exercise your own judgement on how many people you have to dinner, based on the circumstances as you see them.

    And not be dictated to by, in one case, a person with a large financial interest in a certain policy.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Thought-provoking piece by Matthew Parris in The Times this morning:

    "... no statute can capture what common sense dictates. So we are left with rulebooks that can`t be enforced, and a weak sense of responsibility on the part of the individual who thought all this was now the state`s business. The left has never understood, nor the right thought through, the relationship between the bloating of the statute book and the shrivelling of individual responsibility" and:

    "On Covid-19 our masters have underestimated us and discounted the potential force of voluntary action shaped by private judgement.They`re in danger now of critically weakening these social bulwarks to public order by confounding us with a great skein of intrusive and overly specific instructions, leaving no margin for the application of common sense."
  • Good piece by Graham Brady in Telegraph.


    "We risk forsaking liberties so many died to preserve"

    "Suddenly we were "flattening the curve" instead. Now we have moved from "flattening the second hump of the camel" to "suppressing the virus until we have a vaccine" within a week. All of this has been decided behind closed doors without parliamentary debate or approval."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/09/26/risk-forsaking-liberties-many-died-preserve/



    Parliaments must debate these restrictions on our lives.



    I'm in favour, I suppose, of Parliament voting on any new COVID-19 restrictions. But let's have less of this "people died for these freedoms" stuff. I do have relatives who died in WW2, as I suspect most of us do. I think it unlikely, and offensive, to suggest that they died in order that I could have 5 people to dinner.
    I sense that hyperbole has grown in political debate while attention to detail has fallen.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Its risky for labour whichever way you cut it. Give Boris a further six months to do exactly what he likes, and you own the result. You can hardly complain.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859

    For people baffled about the obsession with law in the USA I wonder if I have discovered an underlying reason.

    Take a look at any US county on wikipedia and you'll likely see featured an impressive building - the county courthouse.

    For example this is where Atticus Finch would have worked:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Monroe_County_Courthouse#/media/File:Alabama-Monroe_County_Courthouse_retired.jpg

    in a town of six thousand which looks like:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroeville,_Alabama#/media/File:Historic_buildings_in_Monroeville,_Alabama_LCCN2010639931.tif

    Now some of these buildings might also contain government offices - but even that suggests an entwinning of law and government irrespective of claims about the separation of powers.

    By contrast in the UK the grand buildings tend to be town halls, railway stations and banks.

    Really?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=dundee sheriff court&tbm=

    I go to a lot of similar sheriff courts around Scotland. Inevitably the more recent buildings are not in the same class and Glasgow Sheriff Court is an abomination.
  • Stocky said:

    Thought-provoking piece by Matthew Parris in The Times this morning:

    "... no statute can capture what common sense dictates. So we are left with rulebooks that can`t be enforced, and a weak sense of responsibility on the part of the individual who thought all this was now the state`s business. The left has never understood, nor the right thought through, the relationship between the bloating of the statute book and the shrivelling of individual responsibility" and:

    "On Covid-19 our masters have underestimated us and discounted the potential force of voluntary action shaped by private judgement.They`re in danger now of critically weakening these social bulwarks to public order by confounding us with a great skein of intrusive and overly specific instructions, leaving no margin for the application of common sense."

    Problem is any suggestion of one using their common sense gets immediate screeching from the media about too confusing and hours of them talking about how to avoid all rules...that is unless a devolved government say it, then its fine.
  • MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Parliament should have a say, but I am not going to get too excited about this.

    Johnson has a majority of 80. Are they going to do anything other than rubberstamp whatever he puts in front of them?

    I am not holding my breath...
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Stocky said:

    Thought-provoking piece by Matthew Parris in The Times this morning:

    "... no statute can capture what common sense dictates. So we are left with rulebooks that can`t be enforced, and a weak sense of responsibility on the part of the individual who thought all this was now the state`s business. The left has never understood, nor the right thought through, the relationship between the bloating of the statute book and the shrivelling of individual responsibility" and:

    "On Covid-19 our masters have underestimated us and discounted the potential force of voluntary action shaped by private judgement.They`re in danger now of critically weakening these social bulwarks to public order by confounding us with a great skein of intrusive and overly specific instructions, leaving no margin for the application of common sense."

    Superb analysis. Superb.

  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited September 2020
    I have to say, PB was way ahead of most when we were saying Johnson's sky-high approval ratings would never last.

    What is most astonishing to me is how quickly they have fallen.

    My only question is: why do people assume Sunak won't go the same way?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Article not matching the contents there IMO, opposition parties are opposing the government on scrutiny rather than specific measures. Which is fair. The lack of scrutiny on these life changing measures is, as I said earlier, very worrying. If the measures are fair and reasonable then they won't face very much opposition in parliament, if they aren't then we, as a nation, need to be able to hear dissenting voices and not on YouTube videos or interviews at 11pm on Newsnight.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    My only question is: why do people assume Sunak won't go the same way?

    Because Sunak is not as crap as BoZo.

    Obviously.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Parliament should have a say, but I am not going to get too excited about this.

    Johnson has a majority of 80. Are they going to do anything other than rubberstamp whatever he puts in front of them?

    I am not holding my breath...
    I suspect that the present parliamentary Conservative party, and even the party in the country is even more of a coalition than is usual under our system. I suspect that there is are old fashioned, principled, Conservatives and modern Tories....... commercial bandits...... in uneasy alliance, led by what I suspect even his friends regard as a feckless chancer.
    When the principles of the Conservatives can no longer stomach the practices of the Tories, the crash will come.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited September 2020

    I have to say, PB was way ahead of most when we were saying Johnson's sky-high approval ratings would never last.

    What is most astonishing to me is how quickly they have fallen.

    My only question is: why do people assume Sunak won't go the same way?

    The thing with Sunak is he is at least being partly honest with the public.

    He can't save every job. He can;t save every life. Decisions involve trade-offs. The new normal means some industries virtually expiring. Travel, hospitality etc. He has acted to preserve those that are viable under the social arrangement Johnson has set. If you want another policy, get another social arrangement.

    Its a brilliantly, brilliantly crafted response to Johnson's policy, and not at all the 'just write a giant cheque' the latter probably wanted.

    Sunak has brains by the bucket load. Plus courage and a bit of steel.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Parliament should have a say, but I am not going to get too excited about this.

    Johnson has a majority of 80. Are they going to do anything other than rubberstamp whatever he puts in front of them?

    I am not holding my breath...
    At the moment there is a one sided debate on all of the issues of the day, no dissent on the official line has been allowed to air, only dissent on process. Opening up the conversation to people who have a more sceptical line on this new zero COVID strategy we've adopted changes the dynamic hugely. The government will be forced to to justify measures to the house (and the people) and provide a basis of evidence for what they are doing. At the moment they don't have to do anything, this is a vast improvement.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    maybe that 'Fresh Meat' remake won;t be so boring after all....
  • Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    I have to say, PB was way ahead of most when we were saying Johnson's sky-high approval ratings would never last.

    What is most astonishing to me is how quickly they have fallen.

    My only question is: why do people assume Sunak won't go the same way?

    Because he appears far less likely to flounder round uselessly when confronted with hard problems.
    He won’t defy gravity - but neither will he think persuading us it doesn’t exist a useful exercise.
  • twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1309785566418960384

    I can forsee lots of legal action incoming.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I wonder if knowledge of this video was one of the reasons for the unsubstantiated accusations of Trump calling veterans losers and suckers:

    https://twitter.com/TrumpJew/status/1309577060839501824

    The crowd (of military people) cheers claps and laughs.

    It's almost as if that's been clipped to remove context.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    If only people who understand how young people think could have predicted that letting everyone out onto the streets at exactly the same time would end. Honestly these scientists are absolutely fucking clueless. The 10pm closing time needs to done away with and we should just chalk it up as a failed experiment.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Parliament should have a say, but I am not going to get too excited about this.

    Johnson has a majority of 80. Are they going to do anything other than rubberstamp whatever he puts in front of them?

    I am not holding my breath...
    At the moment there is a one sided debate on all of the issues of the day, no dissent on the official line has been allowed to air, only dissent on process. Opening up the conversation to people who have a more sceptical line on this new zero COVID strategy we've adopted changes the dynamic hugely. The government will be forced to to justify measures to the house (and the people) and provide a basis of evidence for what they are doing. At the moment they don't have to do anything, this is a vast improvement.
    With respect, as one who has found himself agreeing more and more with your posts, we don't have a "zero Covid" strategy. If we did we would have vigorous enforcement and travel bans and would be more like Taiwan or New Zealand. With the aim of elimination.
    We have a "virus suppression" policy. The aim being get the numbers down and an R rate substantially below 1.
    General thrust of point agreed that said.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    Johnson's authority is collapsing by the hour....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    Mr Contrarian is right when he writes 'The new normal means some industries virtually expiring. Travel, hospitality etc. He has acted to preserve those that are viable under the social arrangement Johnson has set. If you want another policy, get another social arrangement. ' except that he 'mistakes' industries for 'firms'.
    When this virus is down to copable-with levels, then people will travel again, within the UK at first, and then overseas. And although some of the firms which, in 2019, provided the services which the travellers will need will have folded, others will come forward to take their place. What they provide might well not be quite the same as what they replaced, but they will be there.
    In 1945 Europe was devastated in more ways than one, but slowly things recovered, although they weren't the same as pre-1939.
  • DavidL said:

    For people baffled about the obsession with law in the USA I wonder if I have discovered an underlying reason.

    Take a look at any US county on wikipedia and you'll likely see featured an impressive building - the county courthouse.

    For example this is where Atticus Finch would have worked:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Monroe_County_Courthouse#/media/File:Alabama-Monroe_County_Courthouse_retired.jpg

    in a town of six thousand which looks like:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroeville,_Alabama#/media/File:Historic_buildings_in_Monroeville,_Alabama_LCCN2010639931.tif

    Now some of these buildings might also contain government offices - but even that suggests an entwinning of law and government irrespective of claims about the separation of powers.

    By contrast in the UK the grand buildings tend to be town halls, railway stations and banks.

    Really?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=dundee sheriff court&tbm=

    I go to a lot of similar sheriff courts around Scotland. Inevitably the more recent buildings are not in the same class and Glasgow Sheriff Court is an abomination.
    Dundee is a major town and I believe was prosperous from jute.

    This is the courthouse of Roberts county, Texas - population 938:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roberts_County,_Texas#/media/File:Roberts_County,_Texas,_courthouse_from_E_1.JPG
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Parliament should have a say, but I am not going to get too excited about this.

    Johnson has a majority of 80. Are they going to do anything other than rubberstamp whatever he puts in front of them?

    I am not holding my breath...
    At the moment there is a one sided debate on all of the issues of the day, no dissent on the official line has been allowed to air, only dissent on process. Opening up the conversation to people who have a more sceptical line on this new zero COVID strategy we've adopted changes the dynamic hugely. The government will be forced to to justify measures to the house (and the people) and provide a basis of evidence for what they are doing. At the moment they don't have to do anything, this is a vast improvement.
    With respect, as one who has found himself agreeing more and more with your posts, we don't have a "zero Covid" strategy. If we did we would have vigorous enforcement and travel bans and would be more like Taiwan or New Zealand. With the aim of elimination.
    We have a "virus suppression" policy. The aim being get the numbers down and an R rate substantially below 1.
    General thrust of point agreed that said.
    The government has said we're going to do this for 6 months, if that's not pursuing a zero COVID strategy I don't know why they're bothering. Surely it should be until we get the R back down to below 1 and sustained for a month or so afterwards.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    Problem for the Government right now is this.
    Backbenchers chafing. Many want measures loosened or lifted.
    Public doesn't from all polling. Indeed many want them tightening (accepting many want it for other people not for anything which would greatly inconvenience them).
    How would a rebellion, or defeat on this, play politically?
  • MaxPB said:

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    If only people who understand how young people think could have predicted that letting everyone out onto the streets at exactly the same time would end. Honestly these scientists are absolutely fucking clueless. The 10pm closing time needs to done away with and we should just chalk it up as a failed experiment.
    Supposedly they never agreed to the 10PM curfew and so you can't blame them - depending on who you ask.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    DavidL said:

    For people baffled about the obsession with law in the USA I wonder if I have discovered an underlying reason.

    Take a look at any US county on wikipedia and you'll likely see featured an impressive building - the county courthouse.

    For example this is where Atticus Finch would have worked:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Monroe_County_Courthouse#/media/File:Alabama-Monroe_County_Courthouse_retired.jpg

    in a town of six thousand which looks like:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroeville,_Alabama#/media/File:Historic_buildings_in_Monroeville,_Alabama_LCCN2010639931.tif

    Now some of these buildings might also contain government offices - but even that suggests an entwinning of law and government irrespective of claims about the separation of powers.

    By contrast in the UK the grand buildings tend to be town halls, railway stations and banks.

    Really?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=dundee sheriff court&tbm=

    I go to a lot of similar sheriff courts around Scotland. Inevitably the more recent buildings are not in the same class and Glasgow Sheriff Court is an abomination.
    Dundee is a major town and I believe was prosperous from jute.

    This is the courthouse of Roberts county, Texas - population 938:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roberts_County,_Texas#/media/File:Roberts_County,_Texas,_courthouse_from_E_1.JPG
    Lawless lot, the Texans.Need plenty of space in the courthouse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    murali_s said:

    Morning All,

    Off-topic, any recommendations for a good cheap laser printer?

    HP Laserjet series are excellent. Colour MFP 281 is the latest all-in-one I think.
  • Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    Voluntary herd immunity builders.
  • Stocky said:

    Thought-provoking piece by Matthew Parris in The Times this morning:

    "... no statute can capture what common sense dictates. So we are left with rulebooks that can`t be enforced, and a weak sense of responsibility on the part of the individual who thought all this was now the state`s business. The left has never understood, nor the right thought through, the relationship between the bloating of the statute book and the shrivelling of individual responsibility" and:

    "On Covid-19 our masters have underestimated us and discounted the potential force of voluntary action shaped by private judgement.They`re in danger now of critically weakening these social bulwarks to public order by confounding us with a great skein of intrusive and overly specific instructions, leaving no margin for the application of common sense."

    I'm not sure it's true that nobody on the left understands that laws shouldn't be too intrusive, or that personal responsibility is crucial, or that overly intrusive laws reduce individual initiative. Feels like a bit of a straw man argument to sugar the pill and make the criticism of the government more palletable for a Tory audience. It is notable that the Swedish approach, with its focus on voluntary individual behaviour, came from a country with a social democratic political culture. And much of the rage on the left at Cummings's behaviour strms from the knowledge that it has made it harder to appeal to a common sense of purpose and made a heavy handed prescriptive response more likely.
  • https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1309539236710944768

    Seems like this is turning into a disaster.

    On this particular issue, I continue to believe it was right to send kids back to school but it seems like not enough is being done to keep the cases under control.

    If it was me I'd lock everything down except schools
  • Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    Johnson's authority is collapsing by the hour....
    As the Dutch decided. This is exactly what anyone who actually knows about young human behaviour could have predicted.

    The 10pm thing was to appear to be doing something.

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    dixiedean said:

    Problem for the Government right now is this.
    Backbenchers chafing. Many want measures loosened or lifted.
    Public doesn't from all polling. Indeed many want them tightening (accepting many want it for other people not for anything which would greatly inconvenience them).
    How would a rebellion, or defeat on this, play politically?

    Remember that a giant slice of the public has been completely insulated from the adverse effects of covid policies. Add those to have been furloughed to pensioners and its a huge number.

    That's probably why Sunak wanted to get rid of the triple lock. To make pensioners aware of what is happening. Because the burden on the young is completely unsustainable.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400
    dixiedean said:

    Problem for the Government right now is this.
    Backbenchers chafing. Many want measures loosened or lifted.
    Public doesn't from all polling. Indeed many want them tightening (accepting many want it for other people not for anything which would greatly inconvenience them).
    How would a rebellion, or defeat on this, play politically?

    Remember after Barnard Castle rules apply to everyone else and you are automatically excluded.

    Yes it doesn’t make any rational sense but people are rarely rational
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    Johnson's authority is collapsing by the hour....
    Should have kept those water cannons, hose them down and cool them off.
  • MaxPB said:

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    If only people who understand how young people think could have predicted that letting everyone out onto the streets at exactly the same time would end. Honestly these scientists are absolutely fucking clueless. The 10pm closing time needs to done away with and we should just chalk it up as a failed experiment.
    I seem to recall the police were in favour of Blair's reforms to licence hours as it would help flatten out the peak of trouble at closing time in big cities (to coin a phrase).

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    nichomar said:

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    Johnson's authority is collapsing by the hour....
    Should have kept those water cannons, hose them down and cool them off.
    Maybe there's a roll for those redundant army tanks after all....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Parliament should have a say, but I am not going to get too excited about this.

    Johnson has a majority of 80. Are they going to do anything other than rubberstamp whatever he puts in front of them?

    I am not holding my breath...
    At the moment there is a one sided debate on all of the issues of the day, no dissent on the official line has been allowed to air, only dissent on process. Opening up the conversation to people who have a more sceptical line on this new zero COVID strategy we've adopted changes the dynamic hugely. The government will be forced to to justify measures to the house (and the people) and provide a basis of evidence for what they are doing. At the moment they don't have to do anything, this is a vast improvement.
    With respect, as one who has found himself agreeing more and more with your posts, we don't have a "zero Covid" strategy. If we did we would have vigorous enforcement and travel bans and would be more like Taiwan or New Zealand. With the aim of elimination.
    We have a "virus suppression" policy. The aim being get the numbers down and an R rate substantially below 1.
    General thrust of point agreed that said.
    The government has said we're going to do this for 6 months, if that's not pursuing a zero COVID strategy I don't know why they're bothering. Surely it should be until we get the R back down to below 1 and sustained for a month or so afterwards.
    I know I know. The 6 months was curious. A month of hard lockdown with vigorous enforcement would surely have been more effective at suppression.
    And also played better with the public, being a far more manageable time frame to get ones head around. But there we are.
  • dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Parliament should have a say, but I am not going to get too excited about this.

    Johnson has a majority of 80. Are they going to do anything other than rubberstamp whatever he puts in front of them?

    I am not holding my breath...
    At the moment there is a one sided debate on all of the issues of the day, no dissent on the official line has been allowed to air, only dissent on process. Opening up the conversation to people who have a more sceptical line on this new zero COVID strategy we've adopted changes the dynamic hugely. The government will be forced to to justify measures to the house (and the people) and provide a basis of evidence for what they are doing. At the moment they don't have to do anything, this is a vast improvement.
    With respect, as one who has found himself agreeing more and more with your posts, we don't have a "zero Covid" strategy. If we did we would have vigorous enforcement and travel bans and would be more like Taiwan or New Zealand. With the aim of elimination.
    We have a "virus suppression" policy. The aim being get the numbers down and an R rate substantially below 1.
    General thrust of point agreed that said.
    Though some people thought Scotland could achieve zero covid:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18622350.scotlands-zero-covid-strategy-best-way-forward/

    https://www.rs21.org.uk/2020/07/17/reaching-a-zero-covid-scotland/
  • maybe that 'Fresh Meat' remake won;t be so boring after all....
    Lord of the flies 2.0 ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    Sandpit said:

    HP Laserjet series are excellent. Colour MFP 281 is the latest all-in-one I think.

    Another vote for the HP laserjets

    Still using one I bought in 2002. Doesn't have WiFi but it does have an Ethernet card

    My parents also have a newer one, bought maybe 5 years ago. Does have WiFi. Just works. Never had a support call...
  • This 10PM curfew nonsense is going to do absolutely sod all and we're going to have to get tougher.

    Close the pubs completely, seems the next step
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    Johnson's authority is collapsing by the hour....
    As the Dutch decided. This is exactly what anyone who actually knows about young human behaviour could have predicted.

    The 10pm thing was to appear to be doing something.

    10pm was the closing time when I was a student. We managed to get drunk, or alternatively have enjoyable experiences with the opposite sex in spite of that.
    Might have been a bit livelier first thing the next morning than our grandchildren seem to be, of course.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    If only people who understand how young people think could have predicted that letting everyone out onto the streets at exactly the same time would end. Honestly these scientists are absolutely fucking clueless. The 10pm closing time needs to done away with and we should just chalk it up as a failed experiment.
    Supposedly they never agreed to the 10PM curfew and so you can't blame them - depending on who you ask.

    This is why parliamentary scrutiny is so important, at the moment we just get a bunch of hearsay. Forcing ministers and the PM to answer questions in parliament will clear up what evidence is driving the decision making process. If we'd had that before this idiotic 10pm closing time then maybe ministers would have been forced to admit there is no scientific basis behind these measures, or they'd be able to present the evidence. Either way we wouldn't be in the dark guessing.
  • https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309523544334835713

    Lol of course over 60s support students being locked in their rooms, "we won the war"!
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Not sure people are getting the message that the plague is back...

    https://twitter.com/charliehtweets/status/1309605815125454848?s=19

    If only people who understand how young people think could have predicted that letting everyone out onto the streets at exactly the same time would end. Honestly these scientists are absolutely fucking clueless. The 10pm closing time needs to done away with and we should just chalk it up as a failed experiment.
    Supposedly they never agreed to the 10PM curfew and so you can't blame them - depending on who you ask.

    This is why parliamentary scrutiny is so important, at the moment we just get a bunch of hearsay. Forcing ministers and the PM to answer questions in parliament will clear up what evidence is driving the decision making process. If we'd had that before this idiotic 10pm closing time then maybe ministers would have been forced to admit there is no scientific basis behind these measures, or they'd be able to present the evidence. Either way we wouldn't be in the dark guessing.
    What I don't get is that you didn't need science to tell you the 10PM curfew wouldn't work. We mostly worked that out here as it was announced. I said it wouldn't work as did most others.

    We are clearly headed for lockdown 2.0 or stricter measures - why not just close all the pubs?
  • https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1309539236710944768

    Seems like this is turning into a disaster.

    On this particular issue, I continue to believe it was right to send kids back to school but it seems like not enough is being done to keep the cases under control.

    If it was me I'd lock everything down except schools

    They had a whole summer to organise education. Could have found additional buildings or built Nightingale schools, brought back retired teachers, set up the infrastructure for a blend of distance and at school learning, enabled education to continue with real social distancing maintained. But presumably it was too expensive, or perhaps our fractured system made it too complex. In all honesty, the efforts at social distancing in schools are utterly laughable and all of this could have been predicted - and indeed was by many of us on here.
  • This 10PM curfew nonsense is going to do absolutely sod all and we're going to have to get tougher.

    Close the pubs completely, seems the next step

    For whatever reason Boris is following the same racheting up as March i.e. here are some new rules, please try and modify your behaviour, because if you don't I will have to ground you.

    I don't get it. I would have banned things household mixing.
  • https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309523544334835713

    Lol of course over 60s support students being locked in their rooms, "we won the war"!

    The iron rule of politics is that the over 60s are wrong about everything.
  • This 10PM curfew nonsense is going to do absolutely sod all and we're going to have to get tougher.

    Close the pubs completely, seems the next step

    For whatever reason Boris is following the same racheting up as March i.e. here are some new rules, please try and modify your behaviour, because if you don't I will have to ground you.

    I don't get it. I would have banned things household mixing.
    The problem now is that we will never have the same following of the rules we had in the past.

    This is why opening up so quickly was a poor decision and I think I said so at the time.

    They should have stuck with outdoor meeting in small groups and left it at that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    They had a whole summer to organise education. Could have found additional buildings or built Nightingale schools, brought back retired teachers, set up the infrastructure for a blend of distance and at school learning, enabled education to continue with real social distancing maintained. But presumably it was too expensive, or perhaps our fractured system made it too complex. In all honesty, the efforts at social distancing in schools are utterly laughable and all of this could have been predicted - and indeed was by many of us on here.

    Schoolkids can't vote...

    Cummings seems to have forgotten their parents do
  • This 10PM curfew nonsense is going to do absolutely sod all and we're going to have to get tougher.

    Close the pubs completely, seems the next step

    For whatever reason Boris is following the same racheting up as March i.e. here are some new rules, please try and modify your behaviour, because if you don't I will have to ground you.

    I don't get it. I would have banned things household mixing.
    The problem now is that we will never have the same following of the rules we had in the past.

    This is why opening up so quickly was a poor decision and I think I said so at the time.

    They should have stuck with outdoor meeting in small groups and left it at that.
    The increase in infections are directly caused by the return of schools and universities.

    You could shut down the rest of the country and that infection increase would still have happened.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309523544334835713

    Lol of course over 60s support students being locked in their rooms, "we won the war"!

    There are very, very few of those who won the war still about. Unless you're talking about the Korean one. And there aren't that many of those!
    Of course, given the right company I could have enjoyed being locked in a hall of residence at 10pm.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    We nee a definition of lockdown to differentiate it from various levels of restrictions, lockdown is when you can’t leave your home unless shopping for essential items, no travel no visitors no going for a walk etc. from that position you the relax the total containment by sets of rules which should be clear and unambiguous, maybe calling them phase 1,2,3 etc which are applied depending on local circumstances but are nationally consistent. As things change you move up or down the phases publicizing them clearly as you go. It isn’t rocket science, but the key is active enforcement at all levels of restriction which has been seriously lacking in the UK.
  • This 10PM curfew nonsense is going to do absolutely sod all and we're going to have to get tougher.

    Close the pubs completely, seems the next step

    For whatever reason Boris is following the same racheting up as March i.e. here are some new rules, please try and modify your behaviour, because if you don't I will have to ground you.

    I don't get it. I would have banned things household mixing.
    The problem now is that we will never have the same following of the rules we had in the past.

    This is why opening up so quickly was a poor decision and I think I said so at the time.

    They should have stuck with outdoor meeting in small groups and left it at that.
    The increase in infections are directly caused by the return of schools and universities.

    You could shut down the rest of the country and that infection increase would still have happened.
    Then shut down the schools as well then.

    I think we're headed for a full lockdown anyway
  • Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HP Laserjet series are excellent. Colour MFP 281 is the latest all-in-one I think.

    Another vote for the HP laserjets

    Still using one I bought in 2002. Doesn't have WiFi but it does have an Ethernet card

    My parents also have a newer one, bought maybe 5 years ago. Does have WiFi. Just works. Never had a support call...
    Yeah had an HP laser jet for almost 10 years. Sometimes the laptops think it is asleep when it isn't but other than that no complaints. They're not super cheap but the cartridges are much more economical than an ink jet so pays for itself in a few years.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1309539236710944768

    Seems like this is turning into a disaster.

    On this particular issue, I continue to believe it was right to send kids back to school but it seems like not enough is being done to keep the cases under control.

    If it was me I'd lock everything down except schools

    They had a whole summer to organise education. Could have found additional buildings or built Nightingale schools, brought back retired teachers, set up the infrastructure for a blend of distance and at school learning, enabled education to continue with real social distancing maintained. But presumably it was too expensive, or perhaps our fractured system made it too complex. In all honesty, the efforts at social distancing in schools are utterly laughable and all of this could have been predicted - and indeed was by many of us on here.
    Or too lazy
  • My prediction for first Labour lead - whenever we see it - is Labour 42, Tories 40
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,378
    HYUFD said:

    It should be pointed out too while the 2017 county council local elections were a great result for the Tories, they had an 11% lead, the 2016 district council local elections were less so, Labour actually won those by 1% so as due to Covid district, unitary and metropolitian council seats last up in 2016 will also be up next year as well as the county seats last up in 2017 it is even possible the Tories could make gains in the former to make up for likely losses in the latter.

    In general, I think it would be a very bad sign for Labour if they failed to make significant gains in next year's local elections. Even if the Conservatives still hold a small lead (which I doubt) Labour ought to run several points ahead in mid-term elections.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Dunno about you guys, but the Scottish TV remake of 'Fresh Meat' is going to be pretty boring I reckon.

    I’m rewatching Fresh Meat as we speak and I had forgotten how hilarious it was.
    Indeed, but do you find it difficult to laugh when you know what some students are going through now? brutal.
    They’re being quarantined for a fortnight in groups, the way people are going on you’d think they were being sent entered to lifetime time of solitary with extra torture.

    These young adults are old enough to be sent abroad to serve their country.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,378
    DavidL said:

    For people baffled about the obsession with law in the USA I wonder if I have discovered an underlying reason.

    Take a look at any US county on wikipedia and you'll likely see featured an impressive building - the county courthouse.

    For example this is where Atticus Finch would have worked:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Monroe_County_Courthouse#/media/File:Alabama-Monroe_County_Courthouse_retired.jpg

    in a town of six thousand which looks like:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroeville,_Alabama#/media/File:Historic_buildings_in_Monroeville,_Alabama_LCCN2010639931.tif

    Now some of these buildings might also contain government offices - but even that suggests an entwinning of law and government irrespective of claims about the separation of powers.

    By contrast in the UK the grand buildings tend to be town halls, railway stations and banks.

    Really?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=dundee sheriff court&tbm=

    I go to a lot of similar sheriff courts around Scotland. Inevitably the more recent buildings are not in the same class and Glasgow Sheriff Court is an abomination.
    The Royal Courts of Justice and Old Bailey, are nothing if not impressive
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Scott_xP said:

    As Rishi Sunak ripped the bandages off the UK economy and told the nation to “live without fear” on Thursday, Boris Johnson was more than 60 miles away watching police recruits practise resuscitation techniques in Northampton.

    The prime minister’s decision not to be at his chancellor’s side in the Commons at a politically perilous moment raised eyebrows, including in the Treasury.

    The mundane explanation that Downing Street was caught in a diary clash does not address deeper questions: is this an administration that knows what it is doing and where it is going? Mr Sunak’s message, at least, was clear: the trade-offs between the economy, health and education were “awful” but must be faced since the virus is not going away.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/decisive-rishi-sunak-wins-over-mps-with-coherence-and-leadership-zjslctmll


    That is very good and it cannot come soon enough for me

    And I have liked a Scott's post.

    The world is standing on it's head
    There's a tricky paradox for Rishi though. He needs Boris to hang around a bit, to take the hit of the Covid winter and the Great Brexit Reorganisation. But Rishi's reputation will be hit by those as well, especially with his clear leg-showing to the anti-restriction wing. And what does he do about Dom?

    If you were a bright, ambitious politician, when would be your optimal time to take over? (Me? I'd let Gove burn himself out first. But I'm not ambitious like that.)
    I disagree. He needs to jump quickly. He doesn't want the economy to be devastated on his watch as Chancellor otherwise he will miss his chance to be PM and go down with the ship.

    I believe his tenure as PM will be inevitably difficult, but at least he gets the gig.
  • Sandpit said:

    Dunno about you guys, but the Scottish TV remake of 'Fresh Meat' is going to be pretty boring I reckon.

    I’m rewatching Fresh Meat as we speak and I had forgotten how hilarious it was.
    Indeed, but do you find it difficult to laugh when you know what some students are going through now? brutal.
    They’re being quarantined for a fortnight in groups, the way people are going on you’d think they were being sent entered to lifetime time of solitary with extra torture.

    These young adults are old enough to be sent abroad to serve their country.
    Why did they go back at all?

    Massive debt to do learning online, Freshers Week and partying is basically out the window on a normal scale
  • If Rishi wanted to be ultra cautious he'd sit and wait until after the Tories are next in opposition and then do a Cameron
  • https://twitter.com/labour_history/status/1309742843402031104

    A masterclass.

    Compare with the bubbling series of erms and arhs and wiffling piffle that is a typical Johnson speech. Not even in the same room as an orator.
  • This 10PM curfew nonsense is going to do absolutely sod all and we're going to have to get tougher.

    Close the pubs completely, seems the next step

    For whatever reason Boris is following the same racheting up as March i.e. here are some new rules, please try and modify your behaviour, because if you don't I will have to ground you.

    I don't get it. I would have banned things household mixing.
    The problem now is that we will never have the same following of the rules we had in the past.

    This is why opening up so quickly was a poor decision and I think I said so at the time.

    They should have stuck with outdoor meeting in small groups and left it at that.
    The increase in infections are directly caused by the return of schools and universities.

    You could shut down the rest of the country and that infection increase would still have happened.
    Then shut down the schools as well then.

    I think we're headed for a full lockdown anyway
    What level of infections and deaths are you prepared to accept rather than having a full lockdown ?

    And how much damage to people's health, the economy and society in general from a full lockdown are you prepared to accept ?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    My prediction for first Labour lead - whenever we see it - is Labour 42, Tories 40

    Polls are irrelevant. Should not waste money conducting them, let parties do so if they want the info, restart them when an election is four months away.
  • If Rishi wanted to be ultra cautious he'd sit and wait until after the Tories are next in opposition and then do a Cameron

    You really do not understand political ambition do you Horse
  • nichomar said:

    My prediction for first Labour lead - whenever we see it - is Labour 42, Tories 40

    Polls are irrelevant. Should not waste money conducting them, let parties do so if they want the info, restart them when an election is four months away.
    It's fun though - and I'm not having a lot of fun at the moment
  • If Rishi wanted to be ultra cautious he'd sit and wait until after the Tories are next in opposition and then do a Cameron

    You really do not understand political ambition do you Horse
    Are we going to have a falling out Big G? Let's kiss and make up honey boo
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Have to say there must have been an unfathomable amount of incompetency with the app design given that it isn't compatible with NHS, PHE and ONS testing. I'm probably going to uninstall it if this doesn't change in the next few days, doesn't seem worth it if 50% of testing isn't being logged into it.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited September 2020

    This 10PM curfew nonsense is going to do absolutely sod all and we're going to have to get tougher.

    Close the pubs completely, seems the next step

    For whatever reason Boris is following the same racheting up as March i.e. here are some new rules, please try and modify your behaviour, because if you don't I will have to ground you.

    I don't get it. I would have banned things household mixing.
    The problem now is that we will never have the same following of the rules we had in the past.

    This is why opening up so quickly was a poor decision and I think I said so at the time.

    They should have stuck with outdoor meeting in small groups and left it at that.
    The increase in infections are directly caused by the return of schools and universities.

    You could shut down the rest of the country and that infection increase would still have happened.
    Then shut down the schools as well then.

    I think we're headed for a full lockdown anyway
    What level of infections and deaths are you prepared to accept rather than having a full lockdown ?

    And how much damage to people's health, the economy and society in general from a full lockdown are you prepared to accept ?
    Well if we continue as we are we're headed for a repeat of March.

    The R consistently below 1 and cases not rising would be a good start, so let's get back to where we were sometime in June. Just after the first lockdown - and then keep the rules strictly in place.

    I would have a full second lockdown and then allow only meetings outdoors for a while
  • MaxPB said:

    Have to say there must have been an unfathomable amount of incompetency with the app design given that it isn't compatible with NHS, PHE and ONS testing. I'm probably going to uninstall it if this doesn't change in the next few days, doesn't seem worth it if 50% of testing isn't being logged into it.

    Dido Harding, Software Eng extraordinaire
  • If Rishi wanted to be ultra cautious he'd sit and wait until after the Tories are next in opposition and then do a Cameron

    You really do not understand political ambition do you Horse
    Are we going to have a falling out Big G? Let's kiss and make up honey boo
    I do not fall out with anyone just provide unbiased thoughts
  • Has covid been revealing about 'national obsessions' in other countries.

    In the UK it seems some people are obsessed with bog roll and foreign holidays.
  • If Rishi wanted to be ultra cautious he'd sit and wait until after the Tories are next in opposition and then do a Cameron

    You really do not understand political ambition do you Horse
    Are we going to have a falling out Big G? Let's kiss and make up honey boo
    I do not fall out with anyone just provide unbiased thoughts
    That's okay, you just seem a bit angry with me lately - I guess we've hit a rocky patch in our relationship
  • MaxPB said:

    Have to say there must have been an unfathomable amount of incompetency with the app design given that it isn't compatible with NHS, PHE and ONS testing. I'm probably going to uninstall it if this doesn't change in the next few days, doesn't seem worth it if 50% of testing isn't being logged into it.

    I installed it yesterday and it seems fine to me so far
  • MaxPB said:

    Have to say there must have been an unfathomable amount of incompetency with the app design given that it isn't compatible with NHS, PHE and ONS testing. I'm probably going to uninstall it if this doesn't change in the next few days, doesn't seem worth it if 50% of testing isn't being logged into it.

    I installed it yesterday and it seems fine to me so far
    With respect, I don't think Max was questioning its ability to work as an application (if it didn't work that would be a real blow and would show that the people working on it don't have a clue) but that the logging isn't up to scratch
  • MaxPB said:

    Have to say there must have been an unfathomable amount of incompetency with the app design given that it isn't compatible with NHS, PHE and ONS testing. I'm probably going to uninstall it if this doesn't change in the next few days, doesn't seem worth it if 50% of testing isn't being logged into it.

    How / why have they made it incompatible. Given all positive tests get compiled every day by the government, there must be some centralised system where all this gets entered.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say there must have been an unfathomable amount of incompetency with the app design given that it isn't compatible with NHS, PHE and ONS testing. I'm probably going to uninstall it if this doesn't change in the next few days, doesn't seem worth it if 50% of testing isn't being logged into it.

    I installed it yesterday and it seems fine to me so far
    It works, but it's a bit pointless if pillar 1 (NHS/PHE) and pillar 4 (ONS) test results aren't compatible, that's 50% of daily testing.
  • nichomar said:

    My prediction for first Labour lead - whenever we see it - is Labour 42, Tories 40

    Polls are irrelevant. Should not waste money conducting them, let parties do so if they want the info, restart them when an election is four months away.
    It's fun though - and I'm not having a lot of fun at the moment
    If there is one thing that will accelerate Boris leaving or being removed from office it will be a big fall in opinion polls.

    His mps are already restless and rumours abound.

    First 6 months of 2021 is my bet for the end of his premiership
  • Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    For people baffled about the obsession with law in the USA I wonder if I have discovered an underlying reason.

    Take a look at any US county on wikipedia and you'll likely see featured an impressive building - the county courthouse.

    For example this is where Atticus Finch would have worked:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Monroe_County_Courthouse#/media/File:Alabama-Monroe_County_Courthouse_retired.jpg

    in a town of six thousand which looks like:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroeville,_Alabama#/media/File:Historic_buildings_in_Monroeville,_Alabama_LCCN2010639931.tif

    Now some of these buildings might also contain government offices - but even that suggests an entwinning of law and government irrespective of claims about the separation of powers.

    By contrast in the UK the grand buildings tend to be town halls, railway stations and banks.

    Really?
    https://www.google.com/search?q=dundee sheriff court&tbm=

    I go to a lot of similar sheriff courts around Scotland. Inevitably the more recent buildings are not in the same class and Glasgow Sheriff Court is an abomination.
    The Royal Courts of Justice and Old Bailey, are nothing if not impressive
    How about Luton magistrates and crown courts ?
This discussion has been closed.