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2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 26 in General
2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1 – politicalbetting.com

Johnson visiting Northampton on Thursday while Sunak was making his big Commons announcement pic.twitter.com/5CH7lTeLP5

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • First ... yet again!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    Yes 2021 for me.

    Mind you my first ever political bet was following OGH in the belief that Brown would go in 2009. Things change, but not as soon as you think they will.

    An "effective" vaccine is 50% effective or better. That is not going to feel miraculous. Either it'll be introduced in spring/summer when things have improved anyway, or when things are bad - and we'll be assured that without the vaccine they'd be even worse. Not a PM-career-saving miracle either way.
  • ODDS UPDATE - To save PBers from scratching their heads, it's no longer possible to get anywhere close to 9/1 for this bet with BetfairEx ... their current back price is 7.8, equivalent to 6.46/1 net of commission.
    The best bookie's odds available are Ladbrokes' 15/2, boosted from 7/1. On reflection, these look like fair odds if by some miracle Boris manages to remain in office throughout 2021. I agree with David Herdson that betting on him leaving this year is a total waste of money.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    Laying 2024 or later looks a safe option.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,285
    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 760

    I usually agree with David Herdson's betting suggestions and have profited considerably over the years as a result of following his canny forecasting.
    Unfortunately, on this occasion we are seriously at odds. When you consider the never ending ineptitude demonstrated by this Government since its election victory last December, it's remarkable, to me at least, that Boris has lasted this long,
    I see it as being very unlikely that he will be able to survive for a further 15 months or more, i.e. until after 31/12/21 as Prime Minister and frankly I doubt whether he believes he can himself.
    Somehow or other, he will struggle along vainly attempting to cope with Covid-19 until we have an effective Vaccine in place, hopefully by the Spring of 2021, but the real killer blow as I see it will prove to be his total failure in concluding a deal with the EU before the end of this year which looks ever more likely to be the case. The total chaos which will result will, I believe, force him to quit during the first half of 2021 and that's where my money is invested.
    DYOR.

    It’s your money. But on what basis do you think a no deal looks ever more likely? All of the diplomatic mood music of recent days is that one will be concluded soon. This is backed up by the two most hyperbolic news stories I can remember on the topic: the IMB to give a scare to the EU and the Kent Border to give a scare to Brexiteer MPs.

    Conversely I am now somewhat concerned about how the vaccine is going to play out. I had naively thought that all we needed was a vaccine to be “good enough”, halving infection and mortality to tolerable levels, which is overwhelmingly likely to be achieved within the coming weeks. But from recent days’ comments, it seems this won’t be good enough for the zero covid purists making the decisions.

    For the sake of this bet, it does somewhat tantalisingly open up an opportunity for the PM doesn’t it? A very public sacking of those that stand in the way of a risk based post vaccine return to normalcy. Hancock, Witty.... and Cummings. I suggest this bet is far more about the PM’s appetite for the job than anything else, very tricky to bet on indeed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,846
    The photo in the header was odd. What was BoZo playing at maskless copper in Northampton, when his Chancellor was giving a major financial statement in the Commons?

    Personally I am on Q3 2021 for a new PM, at next years Party Conference, at good odds from earlier in the year.

    I missed the good odds on Sunak, and he is way too short on next PM now. I have good positions on Gove, Patel and Hunt instead.

    I also have a smidgen on Angela Rayner at very long odds, in case Starmer falls under a bus.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,846

    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,

    He is fiddling while Rome burns.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,846
    moonshine said:

    I usually agree with David Herdson's betting suggestions and have profited considerably over the years as a result of following his canny forecasting.
    Unfortunately, on this occasion we are seriously at odds. When you consider the never ending ineptitude demonstrated by this Government since its election victory last December, it's remarkable, to me at least, that Boris has lasted this long,
    I see it as being very unlikely that he will be able to survive for a further 15 months or more, i.e. until after 31/12/21 as Prime Minister and frankly I doubt whether he believes he can himself.
    Somehow or other, he will struggle along vainly attempting to cope with Covid-19 until we have an effective Vaccine in place, hopefully by the Spring of 2021, but the real killer blow as I see it will prove to be his total failure in concluding a deal with the EU before the end of this year which looks ever more likely to be the case. The total chaos which will result will, I believe, force him to quit during the first half of 2021 and that's where my money is invested.
    DYOR.

    It’s your money. But on what basis do you think a no deal looks ever more likely? All of the diplomatic mood music of recent days is that one will be concluded soon. This is backed up by the two most hyperbolic news stories I can remember on the topic: the IMB to give a scare to the EU and the Kent Border to give a scare to Brexiteer MPs.

    Conversely I am now somewhat concerned about how the vaccine is going to play out. I had naively thought that all we needed was a vaccine to be “good enough”, halving infection and mortality to tolerable levels, which is overwhelmingly likely to be achieved within the coming weeks. But from recent days’ comments, it seems this won’t be good enough for the zero covid purists making the decisions.

    For the sake of this bet, it does somewhat tantalisingly open up an opportunity for the PM doesn’t it? A very public sacking of those that stand in the way of a risk based post vaccine return to normalcy. Hancock, Witty.... and Cummings. I suggest this bet is far more about the PM’s appetite for the job than anything else, very tricky to bet on indeed.
    The thing that makes a No Deal likely is the governments willingness to tear up its own Withdrawal Agreement. No one signs a deal with an untrustworthy counter party, and that is what we are.

    Traffic jams in Kent are inevitable, Deal or No Deal, as unless we are in Customs Union there will need to be customs, and we simply have not organised any.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,033
    Why, I wonder, has no-one else picked up on the Covid-19 vaccine story, which led ITN last night, but which, admittedly, seems to a bit more nuanced this morning?

    And Good Morning, one and all.

    On topic unless there's some good news on either the virus or Europe, I can't see the Conservative party putting up with Johnson much beyond the 2021 Conference.
    There must also be a question over his long-term health.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,413
    Could really have delivered that article in 1/10th of the words David. Sigh. Please take a leaf out of Mike's book: short and crisp does the job more effectively.

    A decent betting tip but I'm not sold. If Johnson stands down this Parliament it's more likely to be next year than later, using a pretext of ill-health. Otherwise, as you say, by 2022 we may out of the woods on Covid and possibly Brexit.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,413

    Why, I wonder, has no-one else picked up on the Covid-19 vaccine story, which led ITN last night, .

    Which is what?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,542
    Morning All,

    Off-topic, any recommendations for a good cheap laser printer?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,033

    Why, I wonder, has no-one else picked up on the Covid-19 vaccine story, which led ITN last night, .

    Which is what?
    This morning ITN's site says the 'Top US coronavirus expert Dr Anthony Fauci is “cautiously optimistic” we will have an effective vaccine by Christmas and if that happens life could be back to normal by the second half of next year.
    Speaking to ITV News’ Tom Bradby, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said it’s projected a safe and effective vaccine could be available by November and December this year.'
    It was the dramatic lead on ITN at 10.30 last night, but it's somewhat played down. comparatively, this morning.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    murali_s said:

    Morning All,

    Off-topic, any recommendations for a good cheap laser printer?

    I have the Brother HL-L2350DW Mono, only black and white, but never let me down and has Wi-fi. Only costs about £100.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,413

    Why, I wonder, has no-one else picked up on the Covid-19 vaccine story, which led ITN last night, .

    Which is what?
    This morning ITN's site says the 'Top US coronavirus expert Dr Anthony Fauci is “cautiously optimistic” we will have an effective vaccine by Christmas and if that happens life could be back to normal by the second half of next year.
    Speaking to ITV News’ Tom Bradby, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said it’s projected a safe and effective vaccine could be available by November and December this year.'
    It was the dramatic lead on ITN at 10.30 last night, but it's somewhat played down. comparatively, this morning.

    Thanks. I've just read it up on ITV. A classic case of hype worthy of the Daily Express.

    It may happen. It may not. Dr Fauci thinks it's 'conceivable' and that we won't know until at least the end of October.

    It's not a non-story but it's not much of a story either.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,413
    edited September 26
    murali_s said:

    Morning All,

    Off-topic, any recommendations for a good cheap laser printer?

    I bought a reconditioned (or it may have been ex-display) Canon MG3500 for about £60. It has been excellent: no frills but does the job.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066

    Why, I wonder, has no-one else picked up on the Covid-19 vaccine story, which led ITN last night, .

    Which is what?
    This morning ITN's site says the 'Top US coronavirus expert Dr Anthony Fauci is “cautiously optimistic” we will have an effective vaccine by Christmas and if that happens life could be back to normal by the second half of next year.
    Speaking to ITV News’ Tom Bradby, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said it’s projected a safe and effective vaccine could be available by November and December this year.'
    It was the dramatic lead on ITN at 10.30 last night, but it's somewhat played down. comparatively, this morning.

    Thanks. I've just read it up on ITV. A classic case of hype worthy of the Daily Express.

    It may happen. It may not. Dr Fauci thinks it's 'conceivable' and that we won't know until at least the end of October.

    It's not a non-story but it's not much of a story either.

    I'd put more weight on it that, it seems to me he has seen positive interim data. Fauci is not chasing any votes, particularly not in the UK
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,033

    Why, I wonder, has no-one else picked up on the Covid-19 vaccine story, which led ITN last night, .

    Which is what?
    This morning ITN's site says the 'Top US coronavirus expert Dr Anthony Fauci is “cautiously optimistic” we will have an effective vaccine by Christmas and if that happens life could be back to normal by the second half of next year.
    Speaking to ITV News’ Tom Bradby, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said it’s projected a safe and effective vaccine could be available by November and December this year.'
    It was the dramatic lead on ITN at 10.30 last night, but it's somewhat played down. comparatively, this morning.

    Thanks. I've just read it up on ITV. A classic case of hype worthy of the Daily Express.

    It may happen. It may not. Dr Fauci thinks it's 'conceivable' and that we won't know until at least the end of October.

    It's not a non-story but it's not much of a story either.

    Indeed, but last night they really went for it! Even got someone to discuss mass vaccination plans. My wife and I got quite hopeful; serves us right, I suppose, for watching ITV!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    I very much doubt if Johnson will fall on his sword, he likes the high life too much. I also suspect he believes he is doing at least an adequate job, perhaps let down on occassions by poor advice from others and circumstances which are out of his control.

    There are plenty of fall guys on hand should the going get tough. Hancock, Sunak, Whitty, Vallance, and there is always Barnier and the EU to throw mud at. Johnson's allies will not be exempt either, if Johnson decides he is to be the last man standing. Cummings, Didi Harding be warned.

    For Johnson, comfort can be found in selective opinion polling. The Conservatives are still ahead after months of bad news. With his health and his private life, all seemingly at a low ebb he retreats daily to his happy place, campaigning. Boris loves a campaign, which is why I think he could be there all the way to 2024. Despite all the carnage around him, one couldn't rule him out to win against the odds.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 226
    moonshine said:

    I usually agree with David Herdson's betting suggestions and have profited considerably over the years as a result of following his canny forecasting.
    Unfortunately, on this occasion we are seriously at odds. When you consider the never ending ineptitude demonstrated by this Government since its election victory last December, it's remarkable, to me at least, that Boris has lasted this long,
    I see it as being very unlikely that he will be able to survive for a further 15 months or more, i.e. until after 31/12/21 as Prime Minister and frankly I doubt whether he believes he can himself.
    Somehow or other, he will struggle along vainly attempting to cope with Covid-19 until we have an effective Vaccine in place, hopefully by the Spring of 2021, but the real killer blow as I see it will prove to be his total failure in concluding a deal with the EU before the end of this year which looks ever more likely to be the case. The total chaos which will result will, I believe, force him to quit during the first half of 2021 and that's where my money is invested.
    DYOR.

    It’s your money. But on what basis do you think a no deal looks ever more likely? All of the diplomatic mood music of recent days is that one will be concluded soon. This is backed up by the two most hyperbolic news stories I can remember on the topic: the IMB to give a scare to the EU and the Kent Border to give a scare to Brexiteer MPs.

    Conversely I am now somewhat concerned about how the vaccine is going to play out. I had naively thought that all we needed was a vaccine to be “good enough”, halving infection and mortality to tolerable levels, which is overwhelmingly likely to be achieved within the coming weeks. But from recent days’ comments, it seems this won’t be good enough for the zero covid purists making the decisions.

    For the sake of this bet, it does somewhat tantalisingly open up an opportunity for the PM doesn’t it? A very public sacking of those that stand in the way of a risk based post vaccine return to normalcy. Hancock, Witty.... and Cummings. I suggest this bet is far more about the PM’s appetite for the job than anything else, very tricky to bet on indeed.
    A vaccine will be "good enough" when the population have suffered enough for long enough without a vaccine. For some people, including many doctors and scientists, simply giving them a solution to the problem is too easy.

    Doctors seem to be afraid that an effective vaccine will put them out of work. Whitty seems to go out of his way to be sceptical about the chances of a vaccine. The misery of living without a vaccine will probably eventually force through a decision to licence one, but after many avoidable deaths and suffering. We have the technology to beat COVID but we are still too scared to use it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076

    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,

    Depends on whether he just wanted to *be* prime minister, or wanted to be remembered in some sort of positive light. All the others worried about their legacy - the main reason May hung around for so long hoping she could achieve a resolution - and given Bozo’s inflated ego I would think he will be the same.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    The interesting part of the initial vaccine for me isn't that it will prevent covid in everyone, it's that in that those that might otherwise die they'll get long covid. In those that would get long covid they'll get over it in a few weeks; in those that might get it mildly they'll get it asymptomstically and in those that might get it asymptomatically they'll swerve it altogether.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 966
    Malmesbury's figures indicate that the UK's worst figures have been fewer than 50/100,000 in recent days, whereas yesterday's Guardian points towards 217/100,000 in Paris and today's Times refers to 746/100,000 in Madrid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/france-covid-cases-hit-record-high-as-anger-grows-over-restrictions

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/medics-of-madrid-grapple-with-worst-coronavirus-caseload-in-europe-z8wl8zbgg
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    fox327 said:

    moonshine said:

    I usually agree with David Herdson's betting suggestions and have profited considerably over the years as a result of following his canny forecasting.
    Unfortunately, on this occasion we are seriously at odds. When you consider the never ending ineptitude demonstrated by this Government since its election victory last December, it's remarkable, to me at least, that Boris has lasted this long,
    I see it as being very unlikely that he will be able to survive for a further 15 months or more, i.e. until after 31/12/21 as Prime Minister and frankly I doubt whether he believes he can himself.
    Somehow or other, he will struggle along vainly attempting to cope with Covid-19 until we have an effective Vaccine in place, hopefully by the Spring of 2021, but the real killer blow as I see it will prove to be his total failure in concluding a deal with the EU before the end of this year which looks ever more likely to be the case. The total chaos which will result will, I believe, force him to quit during the first half of 2021 and that's where my money is invested.
    DYOR.

    It’s your money. But on what basis do you think a no deal looks ever more likely? All of the diplomatic mood music of recent days is that one will be concluded soon. This is backed up by the two most hyperbolic news stories I can remember on the topic: the IMB to give a scare to the EU and the Kent Border to give a scare to Brexiteer MPs.

    Conversely I am now somewhat concerned about how the vaccine is going to play out. I had naively thought that all we needed was a vaccine to be “good enough”, halving infection and mortality to tolerable levels, which is overwhelmingly likely to be achieved within the coming weeks. But from recent days’ comments, it seems this won’t be good enough for the zero covid purists making the decisions.

    For the sake of this bet, it does somewhat tantalisingly open up an opportunity for the PM doesn’t it? A very public sacking of those that stand in the way of a risk based post vaccine return to normalcy. Hancock, Witty.... and Cummings. I suggest this bet is far more about the PM’s appetite for the job than anything else, very tricky to bet on indeed.
    A vaccine will be "good enough" when the population have suffered enough for long enough without a vaccine. For some people, including many doctors and scientists, simply giving them a solution to the problem is too easy.

    Doctors seem to be afraid that an effective vaccine will put them out of work. Whitty seems to go out of his way to be sceptical about the chances of a vaccine. The misery of living without a vaccine will probably eventually force through a decision to licence one, but after many avoidable deaths and suffering. We have the technology to beat COVID but we are still too scared to use it.
    And the David Icke award for conspiracy of the millennium goes to... Fox327!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,431
    Great to have a betting piece, many thanks to Mr. Herdson.

    I think the value in this market is laying this year as an exit date.

    I was sceptical about betting on 2022, but i think i like it as a trading bet.

    Those odds will shorten, next year and it should be possible to secure an easy profit - without risking money for too long.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,

    ...and risk losing the grace and favour mansions, the servants, the chauffeur driven Jaguars. And of course vacuous 20-something ladies love all that power and glamour.

    The only downside is the pathetically mean £150, 000 a year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    Great St Bernard pass was closed due to snow last night, almost unheard of in September.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,431
    IanB2 said:

    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,

    Depends on whether he just wanted to *be* prime minister, or wanted to be remembered in some sort of positive light. All the others worried about their legacy - the main reason May hung around for so long hoping she could achieve a resolution - and given Bozo’s inflated ego I would think he will be the same.
    I think almost any leader would want to see COVID through (especiallg if there's a vaccine round the corner).

    Boris will want to be opening pubs and making jokes about how orgies are now allowed etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076

    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,

    ...and risk losing the grace and favour mansions, the servants, the chauffeur driven Jaguars. And of course vacuous 20-something ladies love all that power and glamour.

    The only downside is the pathetically mean £150, 000 a year.
    And we public irritatingly expecting him to take the job seriously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    Gadfly said:

    Malmesbury's figures indicate that the UK's worst figures have been fewer than 50/100,000 in recent days, whereas yesterday's Guardian points towards 217/100,000 in Paris and today's Times refers to 746/100,000 in Madrid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/france-covid-cases-hit-record-high-as-anger-grows-over-restrictions

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/medics-of-madrid-grapple-with-worst-coronavirus-caseload-in-europe-z8wl8zbgg

    Comparing our national average data with two selected city datasets doesn’t seem reasonable, though?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    Gadfly said:

    Malmesbury's figures indicate that the UK's worst figures have been fewer than 50/100,000 in recent days, whereas yesterday's Guardian points towards 217/100,000 in Paris and today's Times refers to 746/100,000 in Madrid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/france-covid-cases-hit-record-high-as-anger-grows-over-restrictions

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/medics-of-madrid-grapple-with-worst-coronavirus-caseload-in-europe-z8wl8zbgg

    I’m sure some it the hot spots have been over 100 according to the news some areas of Madrid are over 1000 with 500 being the trigger for adding to the restrictions list. 50 is too low to impose draconian restrictions IMO.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    Escape to the country: how Covid is driving an exodus from Britain’s cities

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/26/escape-country-covid-exodus-britain-cities-pandemic-urban-green-space
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    IanB2 said:

    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,

    ...and risk losing the grace and favour mansions, the servants, the chauffeur driven Jaguars. And of course vacuous 20-something ladies love all that power and glamour.

    The only downside is the pathetically mean £150, 000 a year.
    And we public irritatingly expecting him to take the job seriously.
    I am not sure we are. Compare and contrast Sunak's polished, if subjectively flawed, performance this week to Johnson's bumbling ramblings yet people on here excuse Johnson's incompetence and lies as the work of a political titan.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    IanB2 said:

    I notice that no one seems to be wondering if Boris might simply walk. He cannot be enjoying this,

    ...and risk losing the grace and favour mansions, the servants, the chauffeur driven Jaguars. And of course vacuous 20-something ladies love all that power and glamour.

    The only downside is the pathetically mean £150, 000 a year.
    And we public irritatingly expecting him to take the job seriously.
    I am not sure we are. Compare and contrast Sunak's polished, if subjectively flawed, performance this week to Johnson's bumbling ramblings yet people on here excuse Johnson's incompetence and lies as the work of a political titan.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    Amy C Barret anyone know of her? Trumps SCOTUS pick.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    BREAKING: Health minister resigns after inquiry into second virus outbreak

    ...in Victoria, Australia.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,887

    people on here excuse Johnson's incompetence and lies as the work of a political titan.

    They don't like to admit they were wrong.

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 966
    IanB2 said:

    Gadfly said:

    Malmesbury's figures indicate that the UK's worst figures have been fewer than 50/100,000 in recent days, whereas yesterday's Guardian points towards 217/100,000 in Paris and today's Times refers to 746/100,000 in Madrid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/france-covid-cases-hit-record-high-as-anger-grows-over-restrictions

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/medics-of-madrid-grapple-with-worst-coronavirus-caseload-in-europe-z8wl8zbgg

    Comparing our national average data with two selected city datasets doesn’t seem reasonable, though?
    My point was that our worst case towns/cities appear to be way behind some other Euoropean locations.



  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,640
    Confirms Carrie has fucked off to Camberwell. I suppose she wised up eventually. It's pity she didn't realise what she was dealing with before Johnson put his demon seed inside her.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    On topic, we would expect the odds to be influenced were there anything amiss in the PM’s private life that might one day become common knowledge. It is just as well that this isn’t the case, because such things tend not to remain secret for ever.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    IanB2 said:

    On topic, we would expect the odds to be influenced were there anything amiss in the PM’s private life that might one day become common knowledge. It is just as well that this isn’t the case, because such things tend not to remain secret for ever.

    Oh bring out the violins!

    I really don't think we care anymore. Johnson has debased the moral code expected of politicians, and he gets away scot-free. It will never be the same again. John Profumo and Cecil Parkinson must be spinning!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    As long as the Tories are ahead or at least tied in most polls then Boris is safe, it was only falling behind Labour and poor polling which led to Thatcher, IDS and May being ousted and in the case of Thatcher and May only because the hypothetical polling showed Major and Boris would regain a Tory lead which they did and went on to win the next election. Pre 1997 though no polling showed Heseltine, Portillo or Redwood doing any better than Major against Blair.

    On the Labour side Gordon Brown stayed right through until the 2010 election despite some wanting to replace him with David Miliband.

    So it is just as possible Sunak ends up Portillo or David Miiband as he does John Major
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    Sharing banknotes to do cocaine confirmed as a Covid vector:

    'sharing 10 pound notes'

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 26
    It should be pointed out too while the 2017 county council local elections were a great result for the Tories, they had an 11% lead, the 2016 district council local elections were less so, Labour actually won those by 1% so as due to Covid district, unitary and metropolitian council seats last up in 2016 will also be up next year as well as the county seats last up in 2017 it is even possible the Tories could make gains in the former to make up for likely losses in the latter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    At least Barret has been a judge. I was expecting Trump to pick a weather girl off Fox News.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    Certainly not, Boris is still hardly poor and gets Chequers as well as No 10, on the PM's pay though it does have a point 'His £150,000 salary as PM makes him a political pauper by international standards.

    Angela Merkel, the German chancellor is paid £320,000, the New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern receives £240,000, and even the prime minister of tiny land-locked Liechtenstein gets £195,000.'

    The UK PM's salary does not even put him in the top 1% of UK earners for which you need to earn at least £160,000 a year, so raise it to £200,000 a year given all the responsibilities of the role
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    Scott_xP said:
    Her vote is ok though. She votes for the Trump party.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498
    edited September 26

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, we would expect the odds to be influenced were there anything amiss in the PM’s private life that might one day become common knowledge. It is just as well that this isn’t the case, because such things tend not to remain secret for ever.

    Oh bring out the violins!

    I really don't think we care anymore. Johnson has debased the moral code expected of politicians, and he gets away scot-free. It will never be the same again. John Profumo and Cecil Parkinson must be spinning!
    And thank God for that - getting rid of those tedious and hypocritical 'moral codes' would be nothing but an improvement to our national life.

    Betting against Boris for the last decade and longer has been almost exclusively a losing proposition; perhaps that will change in this decade, but perhaps not.

    The combined epochal crises of Brexit and Covid (the latter affecting him both personally and politically) mean that Boris' period of maximum vulnerability is within the next 6-9 months. But if his adversaries don't dislodge him within that time, I expect he will bounce back stronger than ever. And then let them beware :smile:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    edited September 26
    A more measured qualification to Fauci’s vaccine commentary from CNN:

    “By the time you get enough people vaccinated so that you can feel you've had an impact enough on the outbreak, so that you can start thinking about maybe getting a little bit more towards normality, that very likely, as I and others have said, will be maybe the third quarter or so of 2021. Maybe even into the fourth quarter," Fauci told Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor-in-chief of the Journal of the American Medical Association, in an online conversation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    HYUFD said:

    As long as the Tories are ahead or at least tied in most polls then Boris is safe, it was only falling behind Labour and poor polling which led to Thatcher, IDS and May being ousted and in the case of Thatcher and May only because the hypothetical polling showed Major and Boris would regain a Tory lead which they did and went on to win the next election. Pre 1997 though no polling showed Heseltine, Portillo or Redwood doing any better than Major against Blair.

    On the Labour side Gordon Brown stayed right through until the 2010 election despite some wanting to replace him with David Miliband.

    So it is just as possible Sunak ends up Portillo or David Miiband as he does John Major

    I believe you are right. Sunak's window of opportunity looks to be weeks rather than months. As the economy inevitably unravels ( through no direct fault of Sunak) so will his reputation and his price.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,887
    As Rishi Sunak ripped the bandages off the UK economy and told the nation to “live without fear” on Thursday, Boris Johnson was more than 60 miles away watching police recruits practise resuscitation techniques in Northampton.

    The prime minister’s decision not to be at his chancellor’s side in the Commons at a politically perilous moment raised eyebrows, including in the Treasury.

    The mundane explanation that Downing Street was caught in a diary clash does not address deeper questions: is this an administration that knows what it is doing and where it is going? Mr Sunak’s message, at least, was clear: the trade-offs between the economy, health and education were “awful” but must be faced since the virus is not going away.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/decisive-rishi-sunak-wins-over-mps-with-coherence-and-leadership-zjslctmll


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076
    edited September 26
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly not, Boris is still hardly poor and gets Chequers as well as No 10, on the PM's pay though it does have a point 'His £150,000 salary as PM makes him a political pauper by international standards.

    Angela Merkel, the German chancellor is paid £320,000, the New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern receives £240,000, and even the prime minister of tiny land-locked Liechtenstein gets £195,000.'

    The UK PM's salary does not even put him in the top 1% of UK earners for which you need to earn at least £160,000 a year, so raise it to £200,000 a year given all the responsibilities of the role
    And then pay Bozo pro-rata reflecting the extent to which he is fulfilling them?

    If he is short of cash, maybe he should stop treating Chequers and its staff as if it is there for him to host jollies for his mates? Or any passing female musicians.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    Good piece by Graham Brady in Telegraph.


    "We risk forsaking liberties so many died to preserve"

    "Suddenly we were "flattening the curve" instead. Now we have moved from "flattening the second hump of the camel" to "suppressing the virus until we have a vaccine" within a week. All of this has been decided behind closed doors without parliamentary debate or approval."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/09/26/risk-forsaking-liberties-many-died-preserve/



    Parliaments must debate these restrictions on our lives.



  • ClippPClippP Posts: 462
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly not, Boris is still hardly poor and gets Chequers as well as No 10, on the PM's pay though it does have a point 'His £150,000 salary as PM makes him a political pauper by international standards.

    Angela Merkel, the German chancellor is paid £320,000, the New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern receives £240,000, and even the prime minister of tiny land-locked Liechtenstein gets £195,000.'

    The UK PM's salary does not even put him in the top 1% of UK earners for which you need to earn at least £160,000 a year, so raise it to £200,000 a year given all the responsibilities of the role
    But the question arises, young HY, what is he responsible for?

    Everything on paper, and nothing at all in practice...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,691
    Foxy said:

    The photo in the header was odd. What was BoZo playing at maskless copper in Northampton, when his Chancellor was giving a major financial statement in the Commons?

    I thought that was odd. Sunak’s financial statement was at odds with Boris’s Tuesday statement, almost as if the left hand of government does not know what the right hand is up to.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 36,380
    edited September 26
    Scott_xP said:

    As Rishi Sunak ripped the bandages off the UK economy and told the nation to “live without fear” on Thursday, Boris Johnson was more than 60 miles away watching police recruits practise resuscitation techniques in Northampton.

    The prime minister’s decision not to be at his chancellor’s side in the Commons at a politically perilous moment raised eyebrows, including in the Treasury.

    The mundane explanation that Downing Street was caught in a diary clash does not address deeper questions: is this an administration that knows what it is doing and where it is going? Mr Sunak’s message, at least, was clear: the trade-offs between the economy, health and education were “awful” but must be faced since the virus is not going away.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/decisive-rishi-sunak-wins-over-mps-with-coherence-and-leadership-zjslctmll


    That is very good and it cannot come soon enough for me

    And I have liked a Scott's post.

    The world is standing on it's head
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, we would expect the odds to be influenced were there anything amiss in the PM’s private life that might one day become common knowledge. It is just as well that this isn’t the case, because such things tend not to remain secret for ever.

    Oh bring out the violins!

    I really don't think we care anymore. Johnson has debased the moral code expected of politicians, and he gets away scot-free. It will never be the same again. John Profumo and Cecil Parkinson must be spinning!
    And thank God for that - getting rid of those tedious and hypocritical 'moral codes' would be nothing but an improvement to our national life.

    Betting against Boris for the last decade and longer has been almost exclusively a losing proposition; perhaps that will change in this decade, but perhaps not.

    The combined epochal crises of Brexit and Covid (the latter affecting him both personally and politically) mean that Boris' period of maximum vulnerability is within the next 6-9 months. But if his adversaries don't dislodge him within that time, I expect he will bounce back stronger than ever. And then let them beware :smile:
    He better buck up his ideas then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly not, Boris is still hardly poor and gets Chequers as well as No 10, on the PM's pay though it does have a point 'His £150,000 salary as PM makes him a political pauper by international standards.

    Angela Merkel, the German chancellor is paid £320,000, the New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern receives £240,000, and even the prime minister of tiny land-locked Liechtenstein gets £195,000.'

    The UK PM's salary does not even put him in the top 1% of UK earners for which you need to earn at least £160,000 a year, so raise it to £200,000 a year given all the responsibilities of the role
    And then pay Bozo pro-rata reflecting the extent to which he is fulfilling them?

    If he is short of cash, maybe he should stop treating Chequers and its staff as if it is there for him to host jollies for his mates? Or any passing female musicians.
    Though as the article makes clear Boris pays for all meals for any of his personal friends who he invites to Chequers himself from his salary
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 1,346
    edited September 26

    Scott_xP said:

    As Rishi Sunak ripped the bandages off the UK economy and told the nation to “live without fear” on Thursday, Boris Johnson was more than 60 miles away watching police recruits practise resuscitation techniques in Northampton.

    The prime minister’s decision not to be at his chancellor’s side in the Commons at a politically perilous moment raised eyebrows, including in the Treasury.

    The mundane explanation that Downing Street was caught in a diary clash does not address deeper questions: is this an administration that knows what it is doing and where it is going? Mr Sunak’s message, at least, was clear: the trade-offs between the economy, health and education were “awful” but must be faced since the virus is not going away.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/decisive-rishi-sunak-wins-over-mps-with-coherence-and-leadership-zjslctmll


    That is very good and it cannot come soon enough for me

    And I have liked a Scott's post.

    The world is standing on it's head
    There's a tricky paradox for Rishi though. He needs Boris to hang around a bit, to take the hit of the Covid winter and the Great Brexit Reorganisation. But Rishi's reputation will be hit by those as well, especially with his clear leg-showing to the anti-restriction wing. And what does he do about Dom?

    If you were a bright, ambitious politician, when would be your optimal time to take over? (Me? I'd let Gove burn himself out first. But I'm not ambitious like that.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,596
    Scott_xP said:
    Anecdata - chatting to staunch Tory friends yesterday - withering on Johnson - "MIA" "country lacks leadership" "it's all a mess". Particularly unimpressed on COVID.

    I agree with 2021 being likeliest departure date - unless he manages to dress up whatever the EU agrees to as a "great victory" and is believed - which given his back benches is unlikely.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly not, Boris is still hardly poor and gets Chequers as well as No 10, on the PM's pay though it does have a point 'His £150,000 salary as PM makes him a political pauper by international standards.

    Angela Merkel, the German chancellor is paid £320,000, the New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern receives £240,000, and even the prime minister of tiny land-locked Liechtenstein gets £195,000.'

    The UK PM's salary does not even put him in the top 1% of UK earners for which you need to earn at least £160,000 a year, so raise it to £200,000 a year given all the responsibilities of the role
    And then pay Bozo pro-rata reflecting the extent to which he is fulfilling them?

    If he is short of cash, maybe he should stop treating Chequers and its staff as if it is there for him to host jollies for his mates? Or any passing female musicians.
    You an thank Cameron and Brown for the mess, Brown insisted on PM salary being reduced, austerity made it impossible for Cameron to fix and it's too late now really.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140
    Boris not being in the Commons for Rishi’s show was really odd. It was generally a good news story for the government and well received. Economic management is generally a bright spot in the overall handling of the virus. I just don’t understand it.

    It did leave the impression that he was slightly detached from his own government. Things are not normal in the Commons at the moment but this was a budget in all but name. I struggle to think what else could have been more important.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,814

    Scott_xP said:

    As Rishi Sunak ripped the bandages off the UK economy and told the nation to “live without fear” on Thursday, Boris Johnson was more than 60 miles away watching police recruits practise resuscitation techniques in Northampton.

    The prime minister’s decision not to be at his chancellor’s side in the Commons at a politically perilous moment raised eyebrows, including in the Treasury.

    The mundane explanation that Downing Street was caught in a diary clash does not address deeper questions: is this an administration that knows what it is doing and where it is going? Mr Sunak’s message, at least, was clear: the trade-offs between the economy, health and education were “awful” but must be faced since the virus is not going away.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/decisive-rishi-sunak-wins-over-mps-with-coherence-and-leadership-zjslctmll


    That is very good and it cannot come soon enough for me

    And I have liked a Scott's post.

    The world is standing on it's head
    There's a tricky paradox for Rishi though. He needs Boris to hang around a bit, to take the hit of the Covid winter and the Great Brexit Reorganisation. But Rishi's reputation will be hit by those as well, especially with his clear leg-showing to the anti-restriction wing. And what does he do about Dom?

    If you were a bright, ambitious politician, when would be your optimal time to take over? (Me? I'd let Gove burn himself out first. But I'm not ambitious like that.)
    You’re right about the tricky considerations around timing, but the what to do about Cummins is one of the easier questions. His first act will be to sack him.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498
    Yes, but 9000 of those responses were Scott :wink:
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498
    Even Martin Kettle in the Guardian is wary of the lazy anti-Boris wishful thinking into which the media and his opponents so easily fall...

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    I voted in that lol.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,285
    DavidL said:

    Boris not being in the Commons for Rishi’s show was really odd. It was generally a good news story for the government and well received. Economic management is generally a bright spot in the overall handling of the virus. I just don’t understand it.

    It did leave the impression that he was slightly detached from his own government. Things are not normal in the Commons at the moment but this was a budget in all but name. I struggle to think what else could have been more important.

    Boris had the choice of being lost in the crowd of the Common whilst Sunak stood in the spotlight, or he had the choice of being front and centre of a Press camera he had all to himself.

    It was never a choice. He even tried a Churchillian stare...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    nichomar said:

    Amy C Barret anyone know of her? Trumps SCOTUS pick.

    Scalia clone, but probably less rude.
    Democrats will rightly oppose her for her judicial philosophy, but should not go down this kind of rabbit hole:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/judge-cant-be-handmaid/616494/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    The photo in the header was odd. What was BoZo playing at maskless copper in Northampton, when his Chancellor was giving a major financial statement in the Commons?

    I thought that was odd. Sunak’s financial statement was at odds with Boris’s Tuesday statement, almost as if the left hand of government does not know what the right hand is up to.
    He is consistent in his inconsistency, and reliable in his unreliability.
    So not really very odd.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,142
    It took two years for Boris to dislodge May. It was brutal. Does Sunak have the constituency and the sustained grit to force Boris out?

    The shit is about to come Sunaks way, time is not on his side. He has about 6 months to become pm. After that he is in the manure.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,640
    Scott_xP said:
    The Goldman Sachs Elf is transparently running a leadership campaign whether Johnson wants one or not.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,142
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    The photo in the header was odd. What was BoZo playing at maskless copper in Northampton, when his Chancellor was giving a major financial statement in the Commons?

    I thought that was odd. Sunak’s financial statement was at odds with Boris’s Tuesday statement, almost as if the left hand of government does not know what the right hand is up to.
    He is consistent in his inconsistency, and reliable in his unreliability.
    So not really very odd.
    They are very Rishi washy.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096
    Jonathan said:

    It took two years for Boris to dislodge May. It was brutal. Does Sunak have the constituency and the sustained grit to force Boris out?

    The shit is about to come Sunaks way, time is not on his side. He has about 6 months to become pm. After that he is in the manure.

    He will be in good company then
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,033
    MaxPB said:

    I voted in that lol.
    Were you the 14%?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Top post. :+1:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    Scott_xP said:
    At some point Rasputin will have to be invited to a metaphorical 'drinks party' at the Count's house.

    Johnson will have to dump him in the end. It is Bannon all over again.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 18,316
    edited September 26
    For people baffled about the obsession with law in the USA I wonder if I have discovered an underlying reason.

    Take a look at any US county on wikipedia and you'll likely see featured an impressive building - the county courthouse.

    For example this is where Atticus Finch would have worked:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Monroe_County_Courthouse#/media/File:Alabama-Monroe_County_Courthouse_retired.jpg

    in a town of six thousand which looks like:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroeville,_Alabama#/media/File:Historic_buildings_in_Monroeville,_Alabama_LCCN2010639931.tif

    Now some of these buildings might also contain government offices - but even that suggests an entwinning of law and government irrespective of claims about the separation of powers.

    By contrast in the UK the grand buildings tend to be town halls, railway stations and banks.
  • I wonder if knowledge of this video was one of the reasons for the unsubstantiated accusations of Trump calling veterans losers and suckers:

  • TresTres Posts: 171
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly not, Boris is still hardly poor and gets Chequers as well as No 10, on the PM's pay though it does have a point 'His £150,000 salary as PM makes him a political pauper by international standards.

    Angela Merkel, the German chancellor is paid £320,000, the New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern receives £240,000, and even the prime minister of tiny land-locked Liechtenstein gets £195,000.'

    The UK PM's salary does not even put him in the top 1% of UK earners for which you need to earn at least £160,000 a year, so raise it to £200,000 a year given all the responsibilities of the role
    And then pay Bozo pro-rata reflecting the extent to which he is fulfilling them?

    If he is short of cash, maybe he should stop treating Chequers and its staff as if it is there for him to host jollies for his mates? Or any passing female musicians.
    Though as the article makes clear Boris pays for all meals for any of his personal friends who he invites to Chequers himself from his salary
    Do you charge your friends for their meals when you entertain them?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004
    Dunno about you guys, but the Scottish TV remake of 'Fresh Meat' is going to be pretty boring I reckon.

  • Have we had the claims of sexual abuse about ACB yet ?

    I'm curious as to whether it will be men or women or both making the claims.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Top post. :+1:
    Yes, and “executive gas” is inspired.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004
    reading the press this morning it does seem as if I'm not the only person in Britain who thinks long lockdown is the worst peacetime policy decision by any British government, ever.

    Johnson will be lucky to get into 2021. He will get brexit done. Then....?

    The photo of him in the cop car as Rishi delivered his speech showed he knows it.
  • Re covid in schools and universities.

    Is there any data yet of number of infections and number of hospitalisations ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915

    Have we had the claims of sexual abuse about ACB yet ?

    I'm curious as to whether it will be men or women or both making the claims.

    No. You’re the first to bring it up.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004

    MaxPB said:

    Excellent. It's about time that parliament got a say on the biggest issue facing the country. The way the executive gas overriden parliamentary sovereignty on this is extremely worrying. Good to know there are still MPs with a spine in the house.
    Top post. :+1:
    The zeal of the convert.....
This discussion has been closed.