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Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit – politicalbetting.com
Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit – politicalbetting.com
“My most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed.” – Ruth Bader Ginsberg pic.twitter.com/7xQ4GsR3rw
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Let me preface this by saying that Roe vs Wade was the very worst thing that ever happened to 'liberals' in the US. It made what should have been a decision made in the ballot box, something that was made in the Supreme Court. And the Supreme Court should not be in the business of making law.
Trump is faced with a interesting choice:
Does he attempt to push through with a nomination ahead of November 3rd. This is a tough one, because some Senators (*cough* Susan Collins, Cory Gardner) represent pro-Choice states are locked in difficult re-election battles. If Trump puts forward someone who has spoken out against Roe vs Wade in the past, then they will struggle to support him. Add in Susan Murkowski, and you have 50-50. (Albeit with Pence breaking the deadlock.)
Now, he could get someone with more moderate views through... but where's the fun in that?
Perhaps the best result for Trump would be to propose someone extremely pro-Life, to allow him (or her) to be defeated by the Senate. (Thus enabling Collins to demonstrate her independence)
And then to put forward someone equally pro-Life in the lame duck session, irrespective of the results of the election. (Of course, Trump may be more concerned with finding someone who believes in the untrammelled power of the Executive... like... ummm... Mr Barr.)
Alternatively, Trump could nominate someone, but not bring them to the Senate floor before the election. Ms Collins (and Mr Gardner) would likely have to opine on how they would vote.
Interesting times.
This will help Trump as so many Americans like to vote for a winner. They won't care about the hypocrisy compared to 2016, because they expect everyone to pull whatever tricks they can get away with to help their team. Indeed, they admire it (see also Johnson supporters posting here).
Not sure that helps Biden.
My gut tells me Trump and his minions in the Senate will find a way of getting this done in time. Any republican senator who doesn't toe the line is toast, even in a relatively blue state, as they'll lose a decent fraction of their base.
The Dem reaction will be dramatic. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an expansion of Supreme Court in future years.
If Trump doesn't go all guns blazing for an anti abortion judge, he is done for with his base.
Do you have any knowledge about how the system works?
Also we're in this short window between the primary and the general election, which may make senators more inclined to rebel than they would be usually.
That's it. That's the process.
https://twitter.com/richardburgon/status/1307047539762515969?s=21
That's it. That's the process. Trump has just picked hacks off the Federalist Society list. Trump only cares about the Supreme Court in so much as it gives him wins.
It is the main GOP machinery that cares about the Supreme Court which is why they voted in Kavanaugh in lock step.
Four cheeks of the same arse! Shades of the early ‘10s and the EU debate.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1305525117032845318?s=21
ETA just last month VP Pence was complaining that Chief Justice Roberts has been "a disappointment".
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8600507/Mike-Pence-blasts-Chief-Justice-John-Roberts-disappointment-conservatives.html
Hypothetically there might be a child involved and an argument that the interests of that child outweighed the public interest argument if, hypothetically, the paternity of the child were in issue. But I have really no idea.
Lockdown is a much abused word now. I dontthink that we will see anything like April again. A night time curfew and some travel restrictions are not lockdown.
They can get the justice confirmed after the election even if the lose everything. The GOP options are limitless here.
The GOP base cares about the SC, Dem voters do not. Trump and McConnell have loads of space to work in.
Confused as to how it can all work, although it seems to do the job!
For those who haven't seen them, the documentary "RBG" and the drama about her early career "On the Basis of Sex" are well worth watching.
But I have to say I can’t see it as a ‘black swan.’ An 87 year old in poor health dying isn’t exactly an unexpected event.
And while there is a surplus elsewhere in the world as Canada and Oz have done OK, our currency has been tanking due to Cummings being mad as a box of frogs, so prices of imports have gone up.
It’s a good job we’re not planning to do anything reckless, like, say, cut off trading links with our largest suppliers of foodstuffs.
Ah...
https://www.eadt.co.uk/business/farming/east-anglian-cereal-yields-hit-by-extreme-weather-1-6781165
Edit - this situation may also be why the government is panicking over the food security of Northern Ireland, of course.
What’s not to like? Free money for no work, no rent, no evictions...
I wonder how many of the “supporters of a full lockdown repeat” are actually following the rules as they currently? In fact, whilst above comment was semi joking, there may actually be some who actually welcome a lockdown which makes breaking of current rules something they are entirely relaxed about!
A basic principle of the law — and of everyday fairness — is that we apply rules with consistency, and not based on what’s convenient or advantageous in the moment. The rule of law, the legitimacy of our courts, the fundamental workings of our democracy all depend on that basic principle. As votes are already being cast in this election, Republican Senators are now called to apply that standard.
https://obama.medium.com/my-statement-on-the-passing-of-justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-5a925b627457
It just isn’t in their nature.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/18/nhs-worker-attacked-on-london-bus-in-covid-mask-row-say-police
But if in an entirely different case where one did exist, if its mere existence is not to be reported or discussed, how are you supposed to know about it in the first place, so as to avoid inadvertently discussing the substantive issue?
Maybe I should fill the car with food before I return to the UK.
"This is a really cunning plan. With 2 Ms"...
Basically either the various rules they announce to great fanfare are based on no modelling whatsoever, or they simply aren’t prepared to wait to find out if their modelling is any good before moving on to the next stage of measures. And given that we’re practically back to daily briefings again, that means we’re also back to daily announcement of new measures to respond to that day’s rise in numbers. At that speed (as is argued by some was the case in March) we’ve reached full March style lockdown, before we find out if one of the earlier measures has been sufficient to slow or reverse the spread.
And of course it could be worse this time around because nobody is paying much attention to whether there is a link between case numbers and actual serious negative health outcomes (eg hospitalisation). In March this was much more likely to be correlated due to most of the testing actually occurring in hospitals.
The wheat was very poor, but the barley fairly reasonable. Both nicely dry for harvesting.
So bread prices may be up, but beer and whisky OK...
Consumption of that may well rocket.
If there is anything that would make me change my mind, and conclude the Government are infact doing a grand job over Covid, it is a sentence from the tongue of Burgon.
Are there four Republican senators with a functioning conscience ? Just about possible, but I doubt it.
In the state sector for it to be of any value, we would have to test every day. Does he have any idea how long it would take to test maybe 2,500 pupils every day at some of our larger schools? We’d have no time for lessons.
He should confine himself to the more general point that the current state system makes it impossible to be Covid secure and deliver anything other than a shite education, due to pupil numbers.
An autumn morning out with the little hound is one of the simple pleasures wort savouring.
What we’re going to see this year is that system failing due to lack of supply. So food will have to be brought in, at higher prices, and with higher transport costs, at a time when the pound is at historic lows.
As opposed of course to the question of whether the speculation might constitute defamation. So I suppose the sweet spot one might need to hit would be to have no knowledge of an injunction, but speculate very accurately.
https://www.smws.com/blog/knowledge/education/types-grain-used-make-whisky-barley-come
I’m surprised the question needs to be asked. The government and central bank have shown they will not allow a proper long term recalibration of prices in the housing market. The UK version of the Bernanke put.
Zero rates (or lower) essentially now forever from the perspective of a house buyer.
Huge stamp duty cut, not just to first time buyers or primary residence buyers, but including to BUY TO LET investors.
No quibble universal mortgage holidays without affecting credit history. Think on that a moment.
Even the furlough scheme is essentially putting state money in the pockets of home owners.
Throw in the short term and long term justifications for moving from London to somewhere else ahead of the crowd. Whatever some say, the landscape has changed forever. You now need to be close enough to get to town when needed, not every day (and in most cases not never). There’s a limited pool of properties that tick the box of London refugees: close enough to the right station, the right schools and mix of amenities and reliable enough broadband. Somewhere to park the Discovery. Not backing onto a busy A Road but close enough to the road network to get about. Leave it too late and these properties are bid up, and the chosen school is full.
The play lots of people are making is to take the stamp duty holiday to make the maths work on second (or third) property ownership. Keep the pad in London and figure out what to do with it another day. Leverage up on cheap debt and move the family outside to somewhere leafy.
If you are a wannabe first time buyer this must all be very depressing, because it’s the people with proven borrowing capacity that are most able to take advantage.
Those sitting on their hands would do well to consider late 2021, when everyone’s been vaccinated, Brexit is in the rear view mirror and the unprecedented flood of global qe is swooshing about global asset markets.
At last! We have an up to date Nebraska District 2 poll. The first for nearly 2 months. Biden remains 6 points ahead there, he was 7 ahead in the two polls in June/July.
The poll confirms that Biden has a very plausible path to winning without Pennysylvania's 20 votes by picking up Arizona and one of either NE2 (or ME2) as well as Wisconsin and Michigan (with Biden already polling very strongly in both). The one vote in NE2 would take him to 270. Arizona already looked good for Biden but with the absence of polling in NE2 that route was still a bit of an unknown quantity. Now it's not.
Basically, if Trump is to win then Biden now has to go backwards some way on the polling in BOTH Pennysylvania AND Arizona/NE2. As the two sets are quite different demographically (one rust belt, the other Latino and expanding City with suburbs) then you can't assume that happening from just a uniform swing.
Biden also has a chance in ME 2 being ahead in the most recent polls there although it looks closer than NE2 and more vulnerable to a swing back to Trump.
Notably, this was the first YouGov to give Labour 40% or more of the vote share since July 2018.
Ruth Bader-Ginsberg he is not!
But charging thousands for a cockapoo is verging on the ridiculous.
And I wonder how many of the lockdown new owners are fully prepared for the ten to fifteen year responsibility, particularly if life does return to ‘normal’.
To complete knobs.
It seems to be that basically it’s aimed at the press, who presumably have to be old about it in the first place.
Anyhow, all this talk of food prices, enough of violins, I will go and check out the local Alpine farmers’ market.
https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1307209074027659264
Football is the most important of the unimportant things in life. I feel sorry for German football fans that care more about competition than they do about club ownership.
I know most of the dogs in the village by name, but couldn't name most of the owners. Such is dog walking etiquette.
I have an issue with supporting commercial dog breeders. When we were less enlightened we acquired a pedigree Beagle, who due, in part, to genuine Crufts winning in-breeding, was as mad as a march-hare, and not in a good way. We later acquired a failed sniffer-dog Labrador from South Wales Police. Also bred by a Kennel Club authorised breeder but too small and out of specification for Crufts and again as mad as a neurotic bag of frogs.
Our (now old) rescue Springer and our lockdown Beagle both came from Many Tears rescue, near Llanelli. I couldn't recommend them enough. They provide older, sometimes damaged, but nonetheless lovely pets just waiting for a home, for a donation of around £200.
The image of him in the bedroom at Number 10, slowly deterioting with covid, being fed from a tray outside his door in April. Not the triumph of ambition that he imagined.