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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498
    IshmaelZ said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    "It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. "

    Hear, hear. :+1:

    I don't see why this isn't being more widely discussed. Beyond the Spectator.

    Because politics is the art of the possible. Doing a Sweden was just borderline possible in Sweden. Utterly impossible here.
    You mean they actually seem to stick to the rules (light as they are)?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Don’t get what? That people are being seriously misled by a biased press every day which is their only news source if they are even interested. There is nothing that can be offered to a johnson loving voter to change their mind, they are willing to forgive him all and every failure, good luck to them they are welcome to him and his cabinet of muppets.
    You massively overstate the impact of the press. Papers are dying. No one is buying them. The internet is WAAAAAAAY more important.

    People get their news from Facebook, Twitter, IG, Google, and friends on WhatsApp and the like, and maybe 5 minutes of BBC News at Ten.
    I have to say, I signed up for the Athletic in the week. F##k me, it is so much better than the dead tree press, BBC or Sky Sports.
    A fresh and vibrant, net-savvy news media IS quietly evolving. It will flourish and make money. People will always pay for good writing and quality photography, above and beyond what amateur bloggers can do. The success of The Spectator is a clear example.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-spectator-is-hiring-vacancies-across-features-politics-and-data


    Getting there will be painful, however.
    This evening on Sky, Graham Souness, main pundit for Sky Sports admitted he hadn't watched Leeds play before.....You go on Tifo, detailed break down of tactics, loads of insight and stories about Leeds manager, etc etc etc.

    Its like COVID, so many great interviews on YouTube channels like Unherd, I flick on BBC or Sky and they can't even get the basic stats right between screaming CONFUSED in response to every announcement.
    Unherd have done some superb interviews during the plague.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498

    In other news, I haven't been on a train (of any sort) for SIX MONTHS!

    #withdrawal

    I feel for you.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Well some people might disagree on Cooper's talents, but she's currently in a position which probably gives her more influence than the Shadow Cabinet so isn't likely to be tempted (Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee)
    Similar issues for Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan who don't even want to be in Parliament because they get to run things and make actual decisions.
    Sadiq Khan has not made a decision in his political life. He is, by a distance, the worst London mayor since the inception of the modern role. He is divisive, ineffectual, boring, corrosive and effete. Ken Livingstone, who is a c*nt, was miles better. That's how bad Khan is.

    He will win because London is helplessly Labour, and also apathetic, and Tories can only win if they have a spectacularly charismatic dude for a candidate, like Boris - as was.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,504
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
    The better together victory looks ever less remarkable.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,856
    edited September 12
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
    Unlike *checks notes*

    Jenny Agutter[58]
    Roger Allam[58]
    Frances Barber[58]
    Stanley Baxter[58]
    John Barrowman[153]
    Helena Bonham Carter[154]
    Tracy Brabin[58]
    Simon Callow[155]
    Michelle Collins[156]
    Olivia Colman[58]
    Charlie Condou[58]
    Steve Coogan[157]
    Dominic Cooper[58]
    Ronnie Corbett[58]
    Judi Dench[154]
    Michael Douglas[58]
    Tamsin Greig[58]
    Haydn Gwynne[58]
    David Harewood[158]
    Tom Hollander[58]
    Eddie Izzard[159]
    Ross Kemp[156]
    Rose Leslie[145]
    Joanna Lumley[122]
    Stephen Mangan[58]
    Ewan McGregor[160]
    John Michie[58]
    Mike Myers[161]
    Andy Nyman[58]
    Tony Robinson[162]
    John Sessions[58]
    Patrick Stewart[58]
    Neil Stuke[58]
    David Suchet[58]
    Emma Thompson[163]
    David Walliams[58]
    Zoë Wanamaker[58]
    Robert Webb[58]
    Dominic West[58]
    Kevin Whately[58]
    Richard Wilson[164]
    Ray Winstone[58]

    It wuz Dame Judi wot tipped the balance fur ye!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,221
    I see the Britain has Talent has gone full on Scottish Roth those four scotish flags in front of the judges.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
    Unlike *checks notes*

    Jenny Agutter[58]
    Roger Allam[58]
    Frances Barber[58]
    Stanley Baxter[58]
    John Barrowman[153]
    Helena Bonham Carter[154]
    Tracy Brabin[58]
    Simon Callow[155]
    Michelle Collins[156]
    Olivia Colman[58]
    Charlie Condou[58]
    Steve Coogan[157]
    Dominic Cooper[58]
    Ronnie Corbett[58]
    Judi Dench[154]
    Michael Douglas[58]
    Tamsin Greig[58]
    Haydn Gwynne[58]
    David Harewood[158]
    Tom Hollander[58]
    Eddie Izzard[159]
    Ross Kemp[156]
    Rose Leslie[145]
    Joanna Lumley[122]
    Stephen Mangan[58]
    Ewan McGregor[160]
    John Michie[58]
    Mike Myers[161]
    Andy Nyman[58]
    Tony Robinson[162]
    John Sessions[58]
    Patrick Stewart[58]
    Neil Stuke[58]
    David Suchet[58]
    Emma Thompson[163]
    David Walliams[58]
    Zoë Wanamaker[58]
    Robert Webb[58]
    Dominic West[58]
    Kevin Whately[58]
    Richard Wilson[164]
    Ray Winstone[58]

    It wuz Dam Judi wot tipped the balance fur ye!
    You actually wrote down that list. A whiff of tragedy pervades the site.
  • LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Well some people might disagree on Cooper's talents, but she's currently in a position which probably gives her more influence than the Shadow Cabinet so isn't likely to be tempted (Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee)
    Similar issues for Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan who don't even want to be in Parliament because they get to run things and make actual decisions.
    Sadiq Khan has not made a decision in his political life. He is, by a distance, the worst London mayor since the inception of the modern role. He is divisive, ineffectual, boring, corrosive and effete. Ken Livingstone, who is a c*nt, was miles better. That's how bad Khan is.

    He will win because London is helplessly Labour, and also apathetic, and Tories can only win if they have a spectacularly charismatic dude for a candidate, like Boris - as was.
    Khan looks and sounds good on the surface and got good instincts as an opportunist when to attack, but his record in government and as mayor is of doing bugger all well and disappearing when the shit hits the fan.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,279

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    "It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. "

    Hear, hear. :+1:

    I don't see why this isn't being more widely discussed. Beyond the Spectator.

    The Spectator keeps thinking there are no restrictions in Sweden. Care home visit bans have never been lifted in Sweden AIUI.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,221
    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
    Unlike *checks notes*

    Jenny Agutter[58]
    Roger Allam[58]
    Frances Barber[58]
    Stanley Baxter[58]
    John Barrowman[153]
    Helena Bonham Carter[154]
    Tracy Brabin[58]
    Simon Callow[155]
    Michelle Collins[156]
    Olivia Colman[58]
    Charlie Condou[58]
    Steve Coogan[157]
    Dominic Cooper[58]
    Ronnie Corbett[58]
    Judi Dench[154]
    Michael Douglas[58]
    Tamsin Greig[58]
    Haydn Gwynne[58]
    David Harewood[158]
    Tom Hollander[58]
    Eddie Izzard[159]
    Ross Kemp[156]
    Rose Leslie[145]
    Joanna Lumley[122]
    Stephen Mangan[58]
    Ewan McGregor[160]
    John Michie[58]
    Mike Myers[161]
    Andy Nyman[58]
    Tony Robinson[162]
    John Sessions[58]
    Patrick Stewart[58]
    Neil Stuke[58]
    David Suchet[58]
    Emma Thompson[163]
    David Walliams[58]
    Zoë Wanamaker[58]
    Robert Webb[58]
    Dominic West[58]
    Kevin Whately[58]
    Richard Wilson[164]
    Ray Winstone[58]

    It wuz Dam Judi wot tipped the balance fur ye!
    You actually wrote down that list. A whiff of tragedy pervades the site.
    Cut and paste from wiki, references left in
  • LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
    Unlike *checks notes*

    Jenny Agutter[58]
    Roger Allam[58]
    Frances Barber[58]
    Stanley Baxter[58]
    John Barrowman[153]
    Helena Bonham Carter[154]
    Tracy Brabin[58]
    Simon Callow[155]
    Michelle Collins[156]
    Olivia Colman[58]
    Charlie Condou[58]
    Steve Coogan[157]
    Dominic Cooper[58]
    Ronnie Corbett[58]
    Judi Dench[154]
    Michael Douglas[58]
    Tamsin Greig[58]
    Haydn Gwynne[58]
    David Harewood[158]
    Tom Hollander[58]
    Eddie Izzard[159]
    Ross Kemp[156]
    Rose Leslie[145]
    Joanna Lumley[122]
    Stephen Mangan[58]
    Ewan McGregor[160]
    John Michie[58]
    Mike Myers[161]
    Andy Nyman[58]
    Tony Robinson[162]
    John Sessions[58]
    Patrick Stewart[58]
    Neil Stuke[58]
    David Suchet[58]
    Emma Thompson[163]
    David Walliams[58]
    Zoë Wanamaker[58]
    Robert Webb[58]
    Dominic West[58]
    Kevin Whately[58]
    Richard Wilson[164]
    Ray Winstone[58]

    It wuz Dam Judi wot tipped the balance fur ye!
    You actually wrote down that list. A whiff of tragedy pervades the site.
    I realise that it may be news to raddled old newt painters who can't afford to live in Primrose Hill, but there's a thing called Wikipedia and a process called copy and paste.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,030
    edited September 12
    I wonder if Starmer needs to take a more visible line both on the law and on "not getting Brexit done", together.

    "Many people will be outraged that this Government are prepared to trash this country's reputation, and go back on their word, all because they can't get Brexit done".
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073

    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
    Unlike *checks notes*

    Jenny Agutter[58]
    Roger Allam[58]
    Frances Barber[58]
    Stanley Baxter[58]
    John Barrowman[153]
    Helena Bonham Carter[154]
    Tracy Brabin[58]
    Simon Callow[155]
    Michelle Collins[156]
    Olivia Colman[58]
    Charlie Condou[58]
    Steve Coogan[157]
    Dominic Cooper[58]
    Ronnie Corbett[58]
    Judi Dench[154]
    Michael Douglas[58]
    Tamsin Greig[58]
    Haydn Gwynne[58]
    David Harewood[158]
    Tom Hollander[58]
    Eddie Izzard[159]
    Ross Kemp[156]
    Rose Leslie[145]
    Joanna Lumley[122]
    Stephen Mangan[58]
    Ewan McGregor[160]
    John Michie[58]
    Mike Myers[161]
    Andy Nyman[58]
    Tony Robinson[162]
    John Sessions[58]
    Patrick Stewart[58]
    Neil Stuke[58]
    David Suchet[58]
    Emma Thompson[163]
    David Walliams[58]
    Zoë Wanamaker[58]
    Robert Webb[58]
    Dominic West[58]
    Kevin Whately[58]
    Richard Wilson[164]
    Ray Winstone[58]

    It wuz Dam Judi wot tipped the balance fur ye!
    You actually wrote down that list. A whiff of tragedy pervades the site.
    I realise that it may be news to raddled old newt painters who can't afford to live in Primrose Hill, but there's a thing called Wikipedia and a process called copy and paste.
    But what was the fucking point? You are intrinsically sad. Sorry
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,221
    What’s so great about figures from Sweden?
  • /twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1304881619807895553

    Big Dom clearly wants more punch ups than a typical Harry Maguire holiday.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073
    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,030
    edited September 12
    If that's not bait for Starmer, I don't what is. Instead of replying in the terms that come most naturally to him, he has to fuse outrage over the competence issue, the law issue, and "not getting Brexit done", I think, and he probably knows that by now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570
    Interesting facility on 538 which seems to indicate that:

    a) Trump/Republican efforts to limit voting by postal ballot are largely going to be ineffective, and...

    b) Unless it's a landslide we are unlikely to kow the result until the end of the election week at the earliest.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570
    edited September 12
    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
  • If that's not bait for Starmer, I don't what is. He has to fuse outrage over the competence issue, the law issue, and "not gettig Brexit done", I think.
    Its also red meat for brexit supporters, who don't see why we can't just deport illegal immigrants back to France. Obviously it is much more complicated.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 257
    More red meat for the base and also another thing designed to cause problems with the EU . I’m sure Bozo fans will be along soon to tell us all how wonderful this is and what a masterstroke it is !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,027

    If that's not bait for Starmer, I don't what is. He has to fuse outrage over the competence issue, the law issue, and "not gettig Brexit done", I think.
    If he can link human rights with anti-lockdown sentiment, he could turn this into a boomerang for the government.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498
    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    Feels like we are in the run-in to an election. One that Cummings wants to fight as a total culture war event.

    But we aren't anywhere near an election unless someone knows something the rest of us don't.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073

    If that's not bait for Starmer, I don't what is. He has to fuse outrage over the competence issue, the law issue, and "not gettig Brexit done", I think.
    If he can link human rights with anti-lockdown sentiment, he could turn this into a boomerang for the government.
    CHORTLE
  • Actually how big is the support for this QAnon craziness? Are we talking the same sort of size per capita that follow Corbyn and Icke in believing covid is a hoax?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,030
    edited September 12

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    Feels like we are in the run-in to an election. One that Cummings wants to fight as a total culture war event.

    But we aren't anywhere near an election unless someone knows something the rest of us don't.
    The "election" is either just custom charges, visa fees to visit the EU, and a general hit to service industries and other parts of the economy, or lorry parks and food shortages. All downhill from there.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,279
    Posted that yesterday. There are dozens of GOP QAnon state and congressional candidates. One is running unopposed in Georgia.

    They are the new Tea Party but completely insane. They will dominate the next 2 years of American politics and then cause a crisis at the mid terms.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
    Cummings has grasped (long before many others) that Brexit is Revolutionary. This is not a normal political change. This is a kind of plebiscitary coup. Everything is up for grabs.

    We need to go for as much independence as possible. Renounce almost all ties with Europe, legal and political. Void them. Purge them. Suffer the consequences and go indy. It will be painful but Covid is far more painful, so the trauma will be masked.

    Let's do it. Cut all our ties. Slice them away. Fuck the hideous EU elite, they are a nightmarish cabal of infant-blood-drinkers.

    Out, and into the world. Pure and true.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,119
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Not a good comparison. In 1945 the country was evidently yearning for a leftwards shift after the sacrifices and rigours of a world war.

    Today we have already shifted hugely left, we have no choice, thanks to Covid.

    What, in policy terms, does Starmer offer that profoundly differentiates him from Boris?

    Nothing, that I can clearly see.

    As I have said on here before, what Starmer needs to do is go pro-EEA: thereby winning back all the Remainers and maybe gaining a few Scottish seats as well. It would mark him out, and it would provide clear blue water. It would mean the Blue Wall might not be breached, but I reckon he would gain more elsewhere.
    If we go to No Deal WTO terms Brexit and it hits the economy hard then yes Starmer might win on a shift to a soft Brexit EEA style trade deal with the EU but I cannot see him beating Boris otherwise.

    Plus even if he does become PM I cannot see Starmer being much more than a UK version of Francois Hollande
    What do you personally think will be the economic consequences of No Deal, Mr HYUFD?
    Well we might lose some gdp but we are going to lose that anyway post Covid lockdown, however we would regain full sovereignty as well and if we get some more new trade deals like that with Japan the damage will be reduced
    Has to go through Japanese parliament yet.
    Hard to see the Japanese parliament kiling it. However, IIUC it's pretty much just a rollover of the current deal with the EU (give or take a few tweaks) so at best it mitigates the damage.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,279

    Actually how big is the support for this QAnon craziness? Are we talking the same sort of size per capita that follow Corbyn and Icke in believing covid is a hoax?
    30ish percent of GOP voter think it is at least partly true.
  • Scott_xP said:

    ://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1304849248241020929

    I don't mean to be funny, those two really are only going to be listened to be already hardened Remainers. Same as last year when they stuck their oar in.

    Is much bigger issue for Boris when the likes of Howard and Lamont pop up to say hold on a sec.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,279

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    Feels like we are in the run-in to an election. One that Cummings wants to fight as a total culture war event.

    But we aren't anywhere near an election unless someone knows something the rest of us don't.
    Permanent Revolution in the Trumpian style. Trump has ran his administration in permanent campaign mode.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,818
    nico679 said:

    More red meat for the base and also another thing designed to cause problems with the EU . I’m sure Bozo fans will be along soon to tell us all how wonderful this is and what a masterstroke it is !
    Forget the EU. This is an assault on our rights. Will my right not to be discriminated against as a woman be opted out of? Or equal treatment of gay people? Or the right to have recourse to a court? Or the right to have free association?
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
    Cummings has grasped (long before many others) that Brexit is Revolutionary. This is not a normal political change. This is a kind of plebiscitary coup. Everything is up for grabs.

    We need to go for as much independence as possible. Renounce almost all ties with Europe, legal and political. Void them. Purge them. Suffer the consequences and go indy. It will be painful but Covid is far more painful, so the trauma will be masked.

    Let's do it. Cut all our ties. Slice them away. Fuck the hideous EU elite, they are a nightmarish cabal of infant-blood-drinkers.

    Out, and into the world. Pure and true.
    It's that wine time of the evening again !
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,610
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
    Cummings has grasped (long before many others) that Brexit is Revolutionary. This is not a normal political change. This is a kind of plebiscitary coup. Everything is up for grabs.

    We need to go for as much independence as possible. Renounce almost all ties with Europe, legal and political. Void them. Purge them. Suffer the consequences and go indy. It will be painful but Covid is far more painful, so the trauma will be masked.

    Let's do it. Cut all our ties. Slice them away. Fuck the hideous EU elite, they are a nightmarish cabal of infant-blood-drinkers.

    Out, and into the world. Pure and true.
    You are letting your mask slip a bit!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,415

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Well some people might disagree on Cooper's talents, but she's currently in a position which probably gives her more influence than the Shadow Cabinet so isn't likely to be tempted (Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee)
    Similar issues for Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan who don't even want to be in Parliament because they get to run things and make actual decisions.
    Sadiq Khan has not made a decision in his political life. He is, by a distance, the worst London mayor since the inception of the modern role. He is divisive, ineffectual, boring, corrosive and effete. Ken Livingstone, who is a c*nt, was miles better. That's how bad Khan is.

    He will win because London is helplessly Labour, and also apathetic, and Tories can only win if they have a spectacularly charismatic dude for a candidate, like Boris - as was.
    Khan looks and sounds good on the surface and got good instincts as an opportunist when to attack, but his record in government and as mayor is of doing bugger all well and disappearing when the shit hits the fan.
    Really?

    Nailed on as future PM then...
  • isamisam Posts: 34,534

    felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
    EdM led Cammo for a year on Leader ratings whilst Labour led on VI though

    Blue = Tory VI Lead
    Red = Dave's NS lead
    Grey = Dave's Personality lead



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570
    This is a really enlightening read and maybe of relveance on a betting site:

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/10/facts-v-feelings-how-to-stop-emotions-misleading-us

    A key message for me was that the more intelligent and analytical you are, the more susceptible to confirmation bias you are likey to be. This applies to us all: left and right, leave/remain.

    Don't take my word for it - have a read.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,241
    Cyclefree said:

    nico679 said:

    More red meat for the base and also another thing designed to cause problems with the EU . I’m sure Bozo fans will be along soon to tell us all how wonderful this is and what a masterstroke it is !
    Forget the EU. This is an assault on our rights. Will my right not to be discriminated against as a woman be opted out of? Or equal treatment of gay people? Or the right to have recourse to a court? Or the right to have free association?
    Dom certainly hopes so.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073
    Scott_xP said:
    "John Major" and "Tony Blair"

    AKA the Tory PM who took the party to its worst ever landslide defeat, and the Labour PM who took us into the Iraq War, the greatest foreign policy mistake since Suez.

    Why the F do these people even get airtime? They are proven morons, and, evidentially, have zero political sense. Let them be purged, as well. Let them go away for ever and ever and ever. Let them shut the F up.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,667
    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    Started early this evening?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,495

    Both Bury seats (North and South) were Tory gains from Labour in 2019, both by very small margins.

    I suspect even without Covid queues Labour will win them back. Not far from Manchester, so plenty of metropolitan elite voters!
    Those seats were not really part of the Red Wall . Both have often been Tory in the past and remained so in 1992.
  • Alistair said:

    Actually how big is the support for this QAnon craziness? Are we talking the same sort of size per capita that follow Corbyn and Icke in believing covid is a hoax?
    30ish percent of GOP voter think it is at least partly true.
    You would have to be precise about "partly true", because like most conspiracy theories there is somewhere some tiny elements which are true e.g. in QAnon case, there are well known cases of powerful people engaging in child exploitation and plenty of other powerful people were close friends and associates.

    That obviously doesn't get you to whatever global conspiracy (i haven't even tried to keep up) it is that the real whack jobs believe is going on.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,620
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
    Cummings has grasped (long before many others) that Brexit is Revolutionary. This is not a normal political change. This is a kind of plebiscitary coup. Everything is up for grabs.

    We need to go for as much independence as possible. Renounce almost all ties with Europe, legal and political. Void them. Purge them. Suffer the consequences and go indy. It will be painful but Covid is far more painful, so the trauma will be masked.

    Let's do it. Cut all our ties. Slice them away. Fuck the hideous EU elite, they are a nightmarish cabal of infant-blood-drinkers.

    Out, and into the world. Pure and true.
    Revolutions are tricky things, you can well end up with total twats in charge if you arent careful. Boris and Cummings need to go frankly before we tread any further down this line of Boris diktats being made law with no scrutiny.

    Hell I never thought I would vote labour but I would if there is an election tomorrow because under Boris the Tories are certainly showing their authoritarian streak
  • isamisam Posts: 34,534
    So poll leads don't really count when the side with the lead are doing things that their voters find appealing.

    Spin-o-rama!!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
    Cummings has grasped (long before many others) that Brexit is Revolutionary. This is not a normal political change. This is a kind of plebiscitary coup. Everything is up for grabs.

    We need to go for as much independence as possible. Renounce almost all ties with Europe, legal and political. Void them. Purge them. Suffer the consequences and go indy. It will be painful but Covid is far more painful, so the trauma will be masked.

    Let's do it. Cut all our ties. Slice them away. Fuck the hideous EU elite, they are a nightmarish cabal of infant-blood-drinkers.

    Out, and into the world. Pure and true.
    It's that wine time of the evening again !
    European wine? :wink:
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
    Unlike *checks notes*

    Jenny Agutter[58]
    Roger Allam[58]
    Frances Barber[58]
    Stanley Baxter[58]
    John Barrowman[153]
    Helena Bonham Carter[154]
    Tracy Brabin[58]
    Simon Callow[155]
    Michelle Collins[156]
    Olivia Colman[58]
    Charlie Condou[58]
    Steve Coogan[157]
    Dominic Cooper[58]
    Ronnie Corbett[58]
    Judi Dench[154]
    Michael Douglas[58]
    Tamsin Greig[58]
    Haydn Gwynne[58]
    David Harewood[158]
    Tom Hollander[58]
    Eddie Izzard[159]
    Ross Kemp[156]
    Rose Leslie[145]
    Joanna Lumley[122]
    Stephen Mangan[58]
    Ewan McGregor[160]
    John Michie[58]
    Mike Myers[161]
    Andy Nyman[58]
    Tony Robinson[162]
    John Sessions[58]
    Patrick Stewart[58]
    Neil Stuke[58]
    David Suchet[58]
    Emma Thompson[163]
    David Walliams[58]
    Zoë Wanamaker[58]
    Robert Webb[58]
    Dominic West[58]
    Kevin Whately[58]
    Richard Wilson[164]
    Ray Winstone[58]

    It wuz Dam Judi wot tipped the balance fur ye!
    You actually wrote down that list. A whiff of tragedy pervades the site.
    I realise that it may be news to raddled old newt painters who can't afford to live in Primrose Hill, but there's a thing called Wikipedia and a process called copy and paste.
    But what was the fucking point? You are intrinsically sad. Sorry
    Didn't you get the memo? Everything is pointless and we must fill the sterile, empty hours between the present and oblivion in whatever way we see fit.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,241
    justin124 said:

    Both Bury seats (North and South) were Tory gains from Labour in 2019, both by very small margins.

    I suspect even without Covid queues Labour will win them back. Not far from Manchester, so plenty of metropolitan elite voters!
    Those seats were not really part of the Red Wall . Both have often been Tory in the past and remained so in 1992.
    Yep. So many words written on the Red Wall.
    Yet it still has no agreed definition.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,667
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
    Cummings has grasped (long before many others) that Brexit is Revolutionary. This is not a normal political change. This is a kind of plebiscitary coup. Everything is up for grabs.

    We need to go for as much independence as possible. Renounce almost all ties with Europe, legal and political. Void them. Purge them. Suffer the consequences and go indy. It will be painful but Covid is far more painful, so the trauma will be masked.

    Let's do it. Cut all our ties. Slice them away. Fuck the hideous EU elite, they are a nightmarish cabal of infant-blood-drinkers.

    Out, and into the world. Pure and true.
    Was it absinthe tonight? By the pint!
  • isamisam Posts: 34,534

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Well some people might disagree on Cooper's talents, but she's currently in a position which probably gives her more influence than the Shadow Cabinet so isn't likely to be tempted (Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee)
    Similar issues for Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan who don't even want to be in Parliament because they get to run things and make actual decisions.
    Sadiq Khan has not made a decision in his political life. He is, by a distance, the worst London mayor since the inception of the modern role. He is divisive, ineffectual, boring, corrosive and effete. Ken Livingstone, who is a c*nt, was miles better. That's how bad Khan is.

    He will win because London is helplessly Labour, and also apathetic, and Tories can only win if they have a spectacularly charismatic dude for a candidate, like Boris - as was.
    Khan looks and sounds good on the surface and got good instincts as an opportunist when to attack, but his record in government and as mayor is of doing bugger all well and disappearing when the shit hits the fan.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 257
    Cyclefree said:

    nico679 said:

    More red meat for the base and also another thing designed to cause problems with the EU . I’m sure Bozo fans will be along soon to tell us all how wonderful this is and what a masterstroke it is !
    Forget the EU. This is an assault on our rights. Will my right not to be discriminated against as a woman be opted out of? Or equal treatment of gay people? Or the right to have recourse to a court? Or the right to have free association?
    I’m sure this will play well with the uninformed who don’t realize the implications. We haven’t got yet to the complete pull out from the ECHR , I’m sure there’s time but politically a bit more difficult seeing as Churchill was a key driver in that but the way the country is going who knows !

  • nichomar said:

    What’s so great about figures from Sweden?

    Yes, I keep wondering about this. Deaths per million in Sweden (578) are much higher than most, only a bit lower than the USA (597) and the UK (612). By contrast, China's death rate is a stunningly low 3 per million. Mow, even if we suspect China's data is in reality significantly worse than that, I reckon we'd know if it was, say, 200x higher. Nobody ever seems to refer to what China is doing as a role model (or many other East Asian, and some European, countries that have a significantly better performance than Sweden). Seems to me that holding up Sweden as a model has more to do with ideology than epidemiology.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570
    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 305
    Evening all. I see LadyG has gone full mask-off anti-semitic trope spouting fascist.

    Any other developments?
  • isam said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Well some people might disagree on Cooper's talents, but she's currently in a position which probably gives her more influence than the Shadow Cabinet so isn't likely to be tempted (Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee)
    Similar issues for Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan who don't even want to be in Parliament because they get to run things and make actual decisions.
    Sadiq Khan has not made a decision in his political life. He is, by a distance, the worst London mayor since the inception of the modern role. He is divisive, ineffectual, boring, corrosive and effete. Ken Livingstone, who is a c*nt, was miles better. That's how bad Khan is.

    He will win because London is helplessly Labour, and also apathetic, and Tories can only win if they have a spectacularly charismatic dude for a candidate, like Boris - as was.
    Khan looks and sounds good on the surface and got good instincts as an opportunist when to attack, but his record in government and as mayor is of doing bugger all well and disappearing when the shit hits the fan.
    Twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1304470274918711296?s=20
    Did Sadiq defend Maajid Nawaz? Cos Maajod aint a fan of his these days. I remember hearing him doing an interview 2-3 years ago (I think with Sam Harris) and called into question all sorts of things about how he got to where he is today.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,279

    Alistair said:

    Actually how big is the support for this QAnon craziness? Are we talking the same sort of size per capita that follow Corbyn and Icke in believing covid is a hoax?
    30ish percent of GOP voter think it is at least partly true.
    You would have to be precise about "partly true", because like most conspiracy theories there is somewhere some tiny elements which are true e.g. in QAnon case, there are well known cases of powerful people engaging in child exploitation and plenty of other powerful people were close friends and associates.

    That obviously doesn't get you to whatever global conspiracy (i haven't even tried to keep up) it is that the real whack jobs believe is going on.
    Sorry I got confused it was only 23% who thought it was partly true. However 33% think it is mostly true.

    I'm going to dig into the poll because at the start of the year most Americans hadn't heard of qanon.
  • Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    That may or may not be true. It does not make it right though. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the government has got this right. Quoting Major and Blair will not impress many Red Wall voters though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570

    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    That may or may not be true. It does not make it right though. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the government has got this right. Quoting Major and Blair will not impress many Red Wall voters though.
    Lol - the battle for Red Wall voters is 4 years away. This is a battle for sensible law-abiding members of the Tory party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,415
    Phil said:

    Evening all. I see LadyG has gone full mask-off anti-semitic trope spouting fascist.

    Any other developments?

    In tonight's least surprising news...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,901
    Interesting factoid.

    The population of Scotland is less than the West Midlands region. 50 years ago it was the other way round.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,578

    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    That may or may not be true. It does not make it right though. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the government has got this right. Quoting Major and Blair will not impress many Red Wall voters though.
    Lol - the battle for Red Wall voters is 4 years away. This is a battle for sensible law-abiding members of the Tory party.
    3 years away- unless Boris calls it earlier the election is on May 9 2024
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,901
    Scott_xP said:
    Rightly or wrongly, the thing that human rights' laws are most famous for over the last 20 years is allowing convicted terrorists to avoid being deported to their home countries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,268
    Scott_xP said:
    It is interesting how much our PMs of either party from the 1990s loathe Boris, it resembles how much the US presidents of the 1990s from either party, Bush Snr and BIll Clinton, loathed Trump
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    That may or may not be true. It does not make it right though. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the government has got this right. Quoting Major and Blair will not impress many Red Wall voters though.
    Lol - the battle for Red Wall voters is 4 years away. This is a battle for sensible law-abiding members of the Tory party.
    3 years away- unless Boris calls it earlier the election is on May 9 2024
    I nearly did put 3 1/2 but it seemed clunky and May 2024 is currently closer to 4 years than 3 years away.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,027
    More sabre rattling between France and Turkey...

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,570
    edited September 12
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It is interesting how much our PMs of either party from the 1990s loathe Boris, it resembles how much the US presidents of the 1990s from either party, Bush Snr and BIll Clinton, loathed Trump
    With good reason in both situations.

    I am not sure such a comparison on your part is helpful to Johnson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    That may or may not be true. It does not make it right though. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the government has got this right. Quoting Major and Blair will not impress many Red Wall voters though.
    Lol - the battle for Red Wall voters is 4 years away. This is a battle for sensible law-abiding members of the Tory party.
    3 years away- unless Boris calls it earlier the election is on May 9 2024
    I wish the LibDems would wake up!

    It seems to me there is a big opportunity here. As Cummings throws everything he's got at a culture war to keep the red wall seats they could snatch lots of seats they are 2nd to tories in in the south where this kind of crap probably isn't going as well with decent tory members.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,667

    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    ...and all the dead ones too!
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    What Wall?

    You'll not be happy until the fascists take over!
    Cummings has grasped (long before many others) that Brexit is Revolutionary. This is not a normal political change. This is a kind of plebiscitary coup. Everything is up for grabs.

    We need to go for as much independence as possible. Renounce almost all ties with Europe, legal and political. Void them. Purge them. Suffer the consequences and go indy. It will be painful but Covid is far more painful, so the trauma will be masked.

    Let's do it. Cut all our ties. Slice them away. Fuck the hideous EU elite, they are a nightmarish cabal of infant-blood-drinkers.

    Out, and into the world. Pure and true.
    Brexit is a foreign country. They do things differently there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,667
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rightly or wrongly, the thing that human rights' laws are most famous for over the last 20 years is allowing convicted terrorists to avoid being deported to their home countries.
    So once again playing to the populist gallery. What next? Hanging and flogging.
  • Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    Good move. They need to do this. Total War now. Tear down the Wall
    Feels like we are in the run-in to an election. One that Cummings wants to fight as a total culture war event.

    But we aren't anywhere near an election unless someone knows something the rest of us don't.
    Permanent Revolution in the Trumpian style. Trump has ran his administration in permanent campaign mode.
    Aha! Trumpsky is a Trotskyite!? ! (Or Trotskyist if you prefer.)

    NOW it's all starting to make sense, in a dialectical-materialist sort of way . . .
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,803
    edited September 12
    Has David Cameron emerged out of his shepherd's hut to offer any advice to Boris Johnson? Given that he did so much to create today's chaos by calling a referendum, he seems to be remarkably silent about getting out of this mess.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rightly or wrongly, the thing that human rights' laws are most famous for over the last 20 years is allowing convicted terrorists to avoid being deported to their home countries.
    So once again playing to the populist gallery. What next? Hanging and flogging.
    IS it really necessary, to drag the PM's private life into this debate?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498

    nichomar said:

    What’s so great about figures from Sweden?

    Yes, I keep wondering about this. Deaths per million in Sweden (578) are much higher than most, only a bit lower than the USA (597) and the UK (612). By contrast, China's death rate is a stunningly low 3 per million. Mow, even if we suspect China's data is in reality significantly worse than that, I reckon we'd know if it was, say, 200x higher. Nobody ever seems to refer to what China is doing as a role model (or many other East Asian, and some European, countries that have a significantly better performance than Sweden). Seems to me that holding up Sweden as a model has more to do with ideology than epidemiology.
    The Swedish approach is based around using measures that the population will be able to stick with and accept for years . It is a marathon not a sprint.

    The constant lockdown then unlock and demand we get back to Pret and then lockdown again cycle can't be maintained.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,241
    dr_spyn said:

    Has David Cameron emerged out of his shepherd's hut to offer any advice to Boris Johnson? Given that he did so much to create today's chaos by calling a referendum, he seems to be remarkably silent about getting out of this mess.

    Good thing too.
  • Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    That may or may not be true. It does not make it right though. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the government has got this right. Quoting Major and Blair will not impress many Red Wall voters though.
    Lol - the battle for Red Wall voters is 4 years away. This is a battle for sensible law-abiding members of the Tory party.
    Well, you can Lol all you like. However, the battle for the Red Wall up North is not 4 years away. It's here, and now, and every day until the next GE. Citing the lectures of die hard Remainers, who cared not a jot about voters in Labour's old heartlands when they were PM will only help cement support for a PM who clearly wishes to level up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498

    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    ...and all the dead ones too!
    Their supposed heroine The Blessed Margaret would have been against the WA change breaking international agreement. Rule of law was very important to her.

    Johnson isn't a conservative.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,636
    I see we have taken another leap in the UK's race to the bottom.

    What a sh*thole this country will be when Johnson & Co are finished.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Has David Cameron emerged out of his shepherd's hut to offer any advice to Boris Johnson? Given that he did so much to create today's chaos by calling a referendum, he seems to be remarkably silent about getting out of this mess.

    Good point, what does he actually do now?

    I've never seen anyone just completely disappear so quickly before.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Has David Cameron emerged out of his shepherd's hut to offer any advice to Boris Johnson? Given that he did so much to create today's chaos by calling a referendum, he seems to be remarkably silent about getting out of this mess.

    Good point, what does he actually do now?

    I've never seen anyone just completely disappear so quickly before.
    He wrote that international blockbuster of a book...i am sure he was inundated with new commissions after it!
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,073

    More sabre rattling between France and Turkey...

    Turkey v France would be a superb war (as an outsider). In terms of an even match.

    No clear winner. France is evidently more potent (nukes, bigger economy,better allies) but Turkey would have all of Islam as a back-up, and would be more immune to economic sanctions etc

    Tricky,
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498

    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's likely that every living former PM thinks this move by Cummings and Johnson is a disaster.
    That may or may not be true. It does not make it right though. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the government has got this right. Quoting Major and Blair will not impress many Red Wall voters though.
    Lol - the battle for Red Wall voters is 4 years away. This is a battle for sensible law-abiding members of the Tory party.
    Well, you can Lol all you like. However, the battle for the Red Wall up North is not 4 years away. It's here, and now, and every day until the next GE. Citing the lectures of die hard Remainers, who cared not a jot about voters in Labour's old heartlands when they were PM will only help cement support for a PM who clearly wishes to level up.
    You are deluded if you think Johnson give two hoots about the lot of people up North.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498

    More sabre rattling between France and Turkey...

    Of course Turkey is joining the EU any day now. Nigel said so.
  • I love the smell of Tory hubris in the morning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498
    LadyG said:

    More sabre rattling between France and Turkey...

    Turkey v France would be a superb war (as an outsider). In terms of an even match.

    No clear winner. France is evidently more potent (nukes, bigger economy,better allies) but Turkey would have all of Islam as a back-up, and would be more immune to economic sanctions etc

    Tricky,
    Turkey would have USA on their side if Trump remains President.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,803

    dr_spyn said:

    Has David Cameron emerged out of his shepherd's hut to offer any advice to Boris Johnson? Given that he did so much to create today's chaos by calling a referendum, he seems to be remarkably silent about getting out of this mess.

    Good point, what does he actually do now?

    I've never seen anyone just completely disappear so quickly before.
    He wrote that international blockbuster of a book...i am sure he was inundated with new commissions after it!
    I suppose the working title might be on the lines of "Boris Johnson: my part in his victory."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,498
    The donors are stirring from their slumbers...

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,030
    edited September 12
    Interesting..

    "Some critics are imploring Theresa May to take the lead in opposing the plans, to be debated in the Commons this week. One former minister said there was “exasperation” among Tories and that “the mood had changed”, even among some pro-Brexit new MPs."

    Unlike last year, Cummings and Johnson can't purge these.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/12/top-lawyers-slam-suella-braverman-for-wrecking-uks-reputation
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,636

    I love the smell of Tory hubris in the morning.

    The wind must be in a different direction where you are. All I smell is the bullsh*t of Johnson trying to ensure that no one examines his failures.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,499
    I would not at all be surprised if Boris promised a referendum on capital punishment at this point.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,636

    The donors are stirring from their slumbers...

    If you sup with the Devil, bring a long spoon....
This discussion has been closed.