Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

1356

Comments

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,872
    Alistair said:

    NYT times battleground polling





    If Biden is leading like this with over 65s I don't see how he loses Florida

    Disclaimer: I am on Trump in Florida.

    I think it would be useful with some of this polling to see comparisons with the polls two months out, not the final results.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,230
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What is the difference between the acceptable certification given on 31st December and the unacceptable certification on 1st January when our legislation is clear that the current regulations remain in place until it is changed? They know we meet their standards. What else could they reasonably require and if there is anything why aren't they requiring it right now?

    You are missing the point. The stuff on Jan 1st will OK and so will Jan 2nd and Jan 3rd, but Jan 31st? June 17th?

    If they simply accept stuff from us and we decide to let standards slide and import US stuff then it acts as a pipeline - stuff they normally refuse gets in.

    There has to be a formal process for managing and certifying stuff. Jan 1st 2021 is not the problem.
    With respect I am not. Because I acknowledge that the EU has legitimate rights to ensure that any product which has access to the SM complies with their standards. So long as our standards are their standards there is no issue. If we vary them there is an issue, at least for the products affected. But that arises if and when such a step is taken.
    And without an agreed process in place, how are they supposed to know? What guarantees/processes have we put in place to tell them?

    None.

    That is why there is a problem.
    We publish our laws. Do you think that they wouldn't notice if we allowed chlorinated chicken to be imported? I think the Guardian would mention it, at least in passing.
    Speaking of which - have the new "Rule of Six" laws been published yet? ;)

    They don't come into force until tomorrow. What's the rush?
    It might be nice to know what they are.....
  • DavidL said:

    Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

    No they're not, that's a Trump advert that includes an absentee ballot request form, its not the actual absentee ballot form.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/postal-service-trump-absentee-ballot-request-mail-usps/index.html
    Her position is not that this is her absentee ballot but the response to her request for one. It may be a coincidence I suppose.
    Yes I think its a coincidence, but if she requested one weeks ago and still hasn't received it then again that alone is part of America not being a functioning democracy. No idea how long the turnaround happens here but with a functioning postal service it should be done in days not weeks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,646
    ..
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,599
    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blockade France.

    France confirmed 10,561 new coronavirus cases on Saturday - the highest daily number since the pandemic began.

    This is the first time that COVID-19 infections have topped 10,000 in a single day.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-france-reports-highest-number-of-daily-covid-cases-since-pandemic-began-12070399

    Put the Tour de France highlights on ITV4 right now and you'll see part of the reason why.
    What's been going on at the Tour de France has been absolutely astonishing (and i say that even as a bit of a COVID sceptic). I've watched mountain finishes where all the usual stuff has been going on absolutely as normal. Spectators running alongside the riders without masks, literally screaming encouragement into their faces and pushing them along. I'm astonished so few of the riders have failed tests and been pulled out. (maybe they have and it's been covered up).

    And that's even before you address the issue of the mixing crowds.
    The crowd at the start today was ludicrous. Main square rammed. Overflowing into the side streets.
    Does France still have a limit on gatherings above 5000?
  • DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What is the difference between the acceptable certification given on 31st December and the unacceptable certification on 1st January when our legislation is clear that the current regulations remain in place until it is changed? They know we meet their standards. What else could they reasonably require and if there is anything why aren't they requiring it right now?

    You are missing the point. The stuff on Jan 1st will OK and so will Jan 2nd and Jan 3rd, but Jan 31st? June 17th?

    If they simply accept stuff from us and we decide to let standards slide and import US stuff then it acts as a pipeline - stuff they normally refuse gets in.

    There has to be a formal process for managing and certifying stuff. Jan 1st 2021 is not the problem.
    With respect I am not. Because I acknowledge that the EU has legitimate rights to ensure that any product which has access to the SM complies with their standards. So long as our standards are their standards there is no issue. If we vary them there is an issue, at least for the products affected. But that arises if and when such a step is taken.
    And without an agreed process in place, how are they supposed to know? What guarantees/processes have we put in place to tell them?

    None.

    That is why there is a problem.
    We publish our laws. Do you think that they wouldn't notice if we allowed chlorinated chicken to be imported? I think the Guardian would mention it, at least in passing.
    Speaking of which - have the new "Rule of Six" laws been published yet? ;)

    They don't come into force until tomorrow. What's the rush?
    It might be nice to know what they are.....
    We don't know what they are. ManCock still has to go on the Sunday politics shows to tell us the final version.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What is the difference between the acceptable certification given on 31st December and the unacceptable certification on 1st January when our legislation is clear that the current regulations remain in place until it is changed? They know we meet their standards. What else could they reasonably require and if there is anything why aren't they requiring it right now?

    You are missing the point. The stuff on Jan 1st will OK and so will Jan 2nd and Jan 3rd, but Jan 31st? June 17th?

    If they simply accept stuff from us and we decide to let standards slide and import US stuff then it acts as a pipeline - stuff they normally refuse gets in.

    There has to be a formal process for managing and certifying stuff. Jan 1st 2021 is not the problem.
    With respect I am not. Because I acknowledge that the EU has legitimate rights to ensure that any product which has access to the SM complies with their standards. So long as our standards are their standards there is no issue. If we vary them there is an issue, at least for the products affected. But that arises if and when such a step is taken.
    And without an agreed process in place, how are they supposed to know? What guarantees/processes have we put in place to tell them?

    None.

    That is why there is a problem.
    We publish our laws. Do you think that they wouldn't notice if we allowed chlorinated chicken to be imported? I think the Guardian would mention it, at least in passing.
    Speaking of which - have the new "Rule of Six" laws been published yet? ;)

    They don't come into force until tomorrow. What's the rush?
    It might be nice to know what they are.....
    Ignorantia iuris haud non excusat covers the situation I think. I mean you know 6 has been chosen because it sounds like sex and makes sub-editors happy as a result. What else do you want to know?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,709

    IshmaelZ said:

    Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

    Is there a sequel where she shows her displeasure by taking even more of her kit off? I'd watch that.
    You must have a more sophisticated phone than me to see anything racy, unless at my age I don't notice these things any more
    I just doubt the median US recipient-of-dodgy-ballot has quite that cleavage, or displays it so much to make a party political point. And if shown just the initial still and asked to guess what activity she was engaged in I know what I'd say. Perhaps it's just me...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 8,385
    edited September 12
    Alistair said:

    NYT times battleground polling


    And demographics


    If Biden is leading like this with over 65s I don't see how he loses Florida

    Disclaimer: I am on Trump in Florida.

    Florida is different. High Cuban-American population and fanatically pro-Trump. I'm on Trump there too.

    Btw we did these polls earlier. NH is a very good poll for Trump; Nevada and Arizona are good too, but less so; Wisconsin is a wash; Minnesota is good for Biden. Advantage Donald on those polls, but I came across another which will be more to Biden's liking. Not sure how authentic it is though.

    https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-biden-opens-10-point-lead-215044674.html?guccounter=1

    Edit: Arizona is not Sienna. See Realclearpolitics for details.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020

    DavidL said:

    Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

    Not a functioning democracy. But we know that.
    What she's missing is that if her state is handing out ballots that look like Trump marketing, if she votes Biden the Team Trump officials who are also running the state election will simply not count her vote.

    I like election counts in the UK. They are non-partisan open and transparent. The idea that the people counting the ballots should also be partisan is utterly bonkers.
    The US approach is remarkably Stalinist in its methods.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,832
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

    Is there a sequel where she shows her displeasure by taking even more of her kit off? I'd watch that.
    You must have a more sophisticated phone than me to see anything racy, unless at my age I don't notice these things any more
    I just doubt the median US recipient-of-dodgy-ballot has quite that cleavage, or displays it so much to make a party political point. And if shown just the initial still and asked to guess what activity she was engaged in I know what I'd say. Perhaps it's just me...
    You may have a point. She was easier on the eye clickbait than say Michael Moore making the point.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,599
    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blockade France.

    France confirmed 10,561 new coronavirus cases on Saturday - the highest daily number since the pandemic began.

    This is the first time that COVID-19 infections have topped 10,000 in a single day.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-france-reports-highest-number-of-daily-covid-cases-since-pandemic-began-12070399

    Put the Tour de France highlights on ITV4 right now and you'll see part of the reason why.
    What's been going on at the Tour de France has been absolutely astonishing (and i say that even as a bit of a COVID sceptic). I've watched mountain finishes where all the usual stuff has been going on absolutely as normal. Spectators running alongside the riders without masks, literally screaming encouragement into their faces and pushing them along. I'm astonished so few of the riders have failed tests and been pulled out. (maybe they have and it's been covered up).

    And that's even before you address the issue of the mixing crowds.
    The crowd at the start today was ludicrous. Main square rammed. Overflowing into the side streets.
    Does France still have a limit on gatherings above 5000?
    Yes they do. The mighty Wigan RL just played Catalans in Perpignan in front of 5000.
    Which has a usual capacity of 13 000.
    So pretty similar to having c 30000 in Old Trafford in distancing terms.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,782
    edited September 12
    Around what time is the Opinium usually out ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,290
    edited September 12
    A prediction I made about 6 weeks ago was that Labour would get their first lead sometime in the middle of September.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,659

    glw said:

    Wasn't Israel another one that initially was praised for their response? What changed?

    Yes, and Israel is the country where the public health authorities have the mobile signalling data for doing contact tracing, so they effectively have 100% adoption of their geolocation approach. If THAT doesn't work then using flakey Bluetooth advertisments to perform proximity measurement for contact tracing doesn't look like it is going to prove effective to me.
    I thought they had to turn off their spy app? Public became very concerned about just how invasive it was.
    It was banned, but was reauthorised with new legislation. In theory with essentially 100% reach (because every phone is part of the data set) it ought to do a great job of identifying people who have been near a case and warning them via SMS with no need for any app. This is as close as you are going to get to a technological solution for contact tracing. If it is having any effect it is clearly not enough given the cases Israel is reporting.

    The places doing the best at contact tracing seem to have lots of manpower, local knowledge, and they go door to door chasing contacts. Pen and paper can do the data gathering.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,482
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

    Is there a sequel where she shows her displeasure by taking even more of her kit off? I'd watch that.
    You must have a more sophisticated phone than me to see anything racy, unless at my age I don't notice these things any more
    I just doubt the median US recipient-of-dodgy-ballot has quite that cleavage, or displays it so much to make a party political point. And if shown just the initial still and asked to guess what activity she was engaged in I know what I'd say. Perhaps it's just me...
    So a perfectly decently clad young lady showing nothing inappropriate that you couldn't see everyday on your average high st and you jump to conclusions that from the hints in your previous postings are definitely correctly inferred to be sexual.....

    How very woke of you
  • Around what time is the Opinium usually out ?

    Anytime between 6pm and 10pm usually.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753
    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice
  • @alex.

    "I think it would be useful with some of this polling to see comparisons with the polls two months out, not the final results. "

    Yes, but you can get that info with a little digging. It may be misleading though. The polls this time round are showing remarkably few undecideds. You'd think the scope for a late swing would therefore be limited.
  • LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    Is it being so cheerful what keeps you going?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 85,194
    edited September 12
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,782
    edited September 12
    Unchanged ? Or are Labour and the Tories both up one ?
  • By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753

    By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

    Hilarious. Starmer is a dick
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020
    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,782
    edited September 12
    No deal Brexit now much more likely, if Cummings and Johnson see active mileage in it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 85,194
    edited September 12
    LadyG said:

    By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

    Hilarious. Starmer is a dick
    Poor you, you must get no sex that you get tumescent over margin of error poll changes.

    Was Mrs Thatcher Prime Minister the last time you had sex?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,693
    No crossover.

    Perhaps the l law breaking means little in a specific and limited way on those polled.
  • DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    Nah, some of your fellow Brexiteers get the polling horn when Boris Johnson is rude to the EU.

    It'll be different when the reality of no deal hits them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020

    LadyG said:

    By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

    Hilarious. Starmer is a dick
    Poor you, you must get no sex that you get tumescent over margin of error poll changes.

    Was Mrs Thatcher Prime Minister the last time you had sex?
    That's no way to speak to a lady.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,782
    edited September 12
    DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    I don't think it's that. The Remain/Brexit proportions are still locked in and very similar, including the rump Liberal Democrat proportion. It may be that all will shift them is the event of no-deal exit itself - notwithstanding the economic fallout from the end of the furlough scheme coming first.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753
    DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    I fear (for Labour) that he might be. He is just monumentally boring. He's the most boring politician since that guy I've already forgotten.

    And his front bench is SHITE. Annliese Dodds, the manic pixie nightmare crone, as Shadow Chancellor?

    And then attention turns to Scots Labour....



  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,693
    Strictly celebrates Blackpool Tower Ballroom in a specific and limited way.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,964
    DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    Oh well - no need for a special thread header on polling that we want to ignore.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020

    DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    I don't think it's that. The Remain/Brexit proprtions are still locked in and very similar, including the rump Liberal Democrat proportion. It may be that all will shift them is the event of no-deal exit itself.
    The proposition that a significant number of people are going to say, "you know what, on reflection I might have got that wrong" as opposed to happily accepting that it is someone else's fault, ideally foreign, is not supported by a lot of cogent evidence.
  • 3 point lead Tories as expected
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753

    LadyG said:

    By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

    Hilarious. Starmer is a dick
    Poor you, you must get no sex that you get tumescent over margin of error poll changes.

    Was Mrs Thatcher Prime Minister the last time you had sex?
    My nipples are like chapel hat pegs.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

    Is there a sequel where she shows her displeasure by taking even more of her kit off? I'd watch that.
    Photography could have been better for sure
  • Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020
    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
  • Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 36,163
    edited September 12

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 174
    So 42% like the UK trashing international law . The country is going to the dogs !
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

    Hilarious. Starmer is a dick
    Poor you, you must get no sex that you get tumescent over margin of error poll changes.

    Was Mrs Thatcher Prime Minister the last time you had sex?
    My nipples are like chapel hat pegs.
    I note the lack of denial about Mrs Thatcher being PM the last time you had sex.

    We can safely ignore your ramblings as those of a sex starved spinster who is looking for any kind of excitement.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,470
    edited September 12
    Lol! But how can this be? I mean Boris wants to Break. The. Law.

    Surely the Tories should be at -20 by now?
  • In a week when the government has thrown the reddest of red meat to its voting coalition it gets a slight MoE uptick. No surprise, but that meat is clearly not as appetising as it was. And winter is coming.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,964

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
  • Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
  • nico679 said:

    So 42% like the UK trashing international law . The country is going to the dogs !

    Maybe 42% do not like the UK being threatened by the EU
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Just maybe because instinctively assuming that the EU is right and moral and worthy and our own country dishonest, corrupt and stupid is not a universally attractive proposition?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,328
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    I don't think it's that. The Remain/Brexit proprtions are still locked in and very similar, including the rump Liberal Democrat proportion. It may be that all will shift them is the event of no-deal exit itself.
    The proposition that a significant number of people are going to say, "you know what, on reflection I might have got that wrong" as opposed to happily accepting that it is someone else's fault, ideally foreign, is not supported by a lot of cogent evidence.
    But, Twitter......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,681
    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,681

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 85,194
    edited September 12
    felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
  • 3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    By my reckoning that's Con +2 and Lab -1 since the last Opinium.

    Hilarious. Starmer is a dick
    Poor you, you must get no sex that you get tumescent over margin of error poll changes.

    Was Mrs Thatcher Prime Minister the last time you had sex?
    My nipples are like chapel hat pegs.
    I note the lack of denial about Mrs Thatcher being PM the last time you had sex.

    We can safely ignore your ramblings as those of a sex starved spinster who is looking for any kind of excitement.
    As you well know, I ATE OUT to HELP OUT just the other day. And the recipient, God bless her, seemed very pleased
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,599

    nico679 said:

    So 42% like the UK trashing international law . The country is going to the dogs !

    Maybe 42% do not like the UK being threatened by the EU
    Oh come on.
    Every shred of evidence suggests they absolutely love it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,681
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    I fear (for Labour) that he might be. He is just monumentally boring. He's the most boring politician since that guy I've already forgotten.

    And his front bench is SHITE. Annliese Dodds, the manic pixie nightmare crone, as Shadow Chancellor?

    And then attention turns to Scots Labour....



    Are you suggesting Sir Keir is Labour's IDS LadyG?

    More like Labour's Francois Hollande in my view if Labour get lucky
  • felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
    So therefore we are to conclude a big Labour lead is on the way? Keir leads +20 to -8 for Johnson, 12 points?
  • DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
  • HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Boris is breaking an international treaty which is wrong on so many levels

    He should have declared the talks off and prepared for no deal
  • HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,113

    In a week when the government has thrown the reddest of red meat to its voting coalition it gets a slight MoE uptick. No surprise, but that meat is clearly not as appetising as it was. And winter is coming.

    Yes, they've moved the focus back to Brexit. They're hoping that they will be able to keep doing so for the next 4 years. But I think that Starmer will choose to avoid their traps and so by 2024 we'll have moved on.
  • felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
    So therefore we are to conclude a big Labour lead is on the way? Keir leads +20 to -8 for Johnson, 12 points?
    No, the pandemic and Brexit makes it an inelegant precedent.

    That said we've entered a second decade of continuous Conservative led governments, history does suggest we should see largish opposition leads over the next two or so years.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Boris is breaking an international treaty which is wrong on so many levels

    He should have declared the talks off and prepared for no deal
    I believe it was Josef Stalin who said "treaties are like eggs, made to be broken". He did OK.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,994

    felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
    So therefore we are to conclude a big Labour lead is on the way? Keir leads +20 to -8 for Johnson, 12 points?
    Surely 28 points
  • 3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,614
    Depressing to see even apparently intelligent people not understanding that what is right and what is popular are not necessarily the same.

    And that popularity is not the only - or even the best - measure of an action.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,872
    edited September 12

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Presumably BigG believes that the appropriate response of a counterparty to any agreement broken under international law should be to ignore it because any even mild complaint would annoy said law breakers political supporters.

    Whereas i suspect that the EU long gave up caring about the British electorate - not least because they continue to show support for the UK Government it removes any sense of guilt about any lack of trade agreement between the two countries and the negative impacts for the UK populace. And are quite happy with maintaining their own political support bases who are no doubt quite content with the general position that the British can go f*ck themselves.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,462
    EMA after this poll shows Con 42.2% Lab 37.4%
    Tory lead 4.8%
    Tory majority 12
  • felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
    So therefore we are to conclude a big Labour lead is on the way? Keir leads +20 to -8 for Johnson, 12 points?
    He does not lead on best PM
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,994

    nico679 said:

    So 42% like the UK trashing international law . The country is going to the dogs !

    Maybe 42% do not like the UK being threatened by the EU
    DavidL said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Just maybe because instinctively assuming that the EU is right and moral and worthy and our own country dishonest, corrupt and stupid is not a universally attractive proposition?
    DavidL said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Just maybe because instinctively assuming that the EU is right and moral and worthy and our own country dishonest, corrupt and stupid is not a universally attractive proposition?
    DavidL said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Just maybe because instinctively assuming that the EU is right and moral and worthy and our own country dishonest, corrupt and stupid is not a universally attractive proposition?
    ..
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753
    I hate to break it to you, but most of the country does not even know who Keir Starmer IS. Let alone what he *does*. He is invisible. This is like polling saying "Do you approve of the Queen's chef"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,630

    Alistair said:

    NYT times battleground polling


    And demographics


    If Biden is leading like this with over 65s I don't see how he loses Florida

    Disclaimer: I am on Trump in Florida.

    Florida is different. High Cuban-American population and fanatically pro-Trump. I'm on Trump there too.

    Btw we did these polls earlier. NH is a very good poll for Trump; Nevada and Arizona are good too, but less so; Wisconsin is a wash; Minnesota is good for Biden. Advantage Donald on those polls, but I came across another which will be more to Biden's liking. Not sure how authentic it is though.

    https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-biden-opens-10-point-lead-215044674.html?guccounter=1

    Edit: Arizona is not Sienna. See Realclearpolitics for details.
    Yeah but the Florida Cubans have been Republican for years, I am not sure there is much left to gain for them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,994
    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,872

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    I sense a few people are slightly underestimating the emotional importance that the Scottish place on the Shetland islands, even if such a prospect were remotely likely... Maybe i'm wrong, and their secession would rock them to the core of their being...
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,964

    felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
    Lol - you know full well if the figures had been different the presses would be stopped and a new thread header inserted. The whole of the chattering classes have gone all Brexit shambles/we hate Boris/love the EU/Covid nightmare this week. It's been massivley ott and every time that happens the public push back.
  • alex_ said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Presumably BigG believes that the appropriate response of a counterparty to any agreement broken under international law should be to ignore it because any even mild complaint would annoy said law breakers political supporters.

    Whereas i suspect that the EU long gave up caring about the British electorate - not least because they continue to show support for the UK Government it removes any sense of guilt about any lack of trade agreement between the two countries and the negative impacts for the UK populace. And are quite happy with maintaining their own political support bases who are no doubt quite content with the general position that the British can go f*ck themselves.
    Two wrongs do not make a right
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,753
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,782
    edited September 12
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    But, but, the rule of law, ILLEGAL, criminals, chaos, more lockdown...

    Is SKS just too dull to achieve break through?
    I don't think it's that. The Remain/Brexit proprtions are still locked in and very similar, including the rump Liberal Democrat proportion. It may be that all will shift them is the event of no-deal exit itself.
    The proposition that a significant number of people are going to say, "you know what, on reflection I might have got that wrong" as opposed to happily accepting that it is someone else's fault, ideally foreign, is not supported by a lot of cogent evidence.
    It may be that the only thing that is going to lead some people to think that they've got something wrong is 20-mile lorry parks and shortages of certain foods.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,681
    Leave voters back reneging on the WA by a 14% margin with regard to the UK internal market, voters overall oppose by a 13% margin
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,007
    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Not that it really bears worth thinking about, but I do wonder what sort of measures governments would need to be considering if there was something somewhere realistically in between those two extremes.

    70% today would basically be a Hollywood apocalypse film. Covid is a massive upheaval and a deep economic stress, but fundamentally hasn't and shouldn't cause our society to keel over (yet, touch wood, etcetera).

    One wonders (and desperately hopes wonder will be the limit of the experience) what would a global pandemic with a (hypothetically, say) 10% mortality rate would be like.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,872

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Boris is breaking an international treaty which is wrong on so many levels

    He should have declared the talks off and prepared for no deal
    Hang on a minute - i thought you were all in favour of an orderly Brexit with a deal? And yet now you are falling hook line and sinker for any ridiculous propaganda line spun by the British Government and demanding they walk away from the talks as a result?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,470
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Supplementaries continue to look good for Sir Keir.


    So the spin begins - soon it will not be a lead at all.
    Cast your mind back, remember when Ed Miliband led the polls but Dave had substantial leads in approval/leadership ratings.

    Back in 2017 what alerted me and Mike to the fact Mrs May was about to shit the bed was her collapsing ratings.

    Last year what led me to say a fortnight out that Boris Johnson was on course for a majority of 40-70 seats (excluding Scotland), it was his lead over Corbyn.

    Leader/approval ratings are a very good pointer of where things are headed.
    Lol - you know full well if the figures had been different the presses would be stopped and a new thread header inserted. The whole of the chattering classes have gone all Brexit shambles/we hate Boris/love the EU/Covid nightmare this week. It's been massivley ott and every time that happens the public push back.
    Truer words were never spoken.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,964
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,709
    Pagan2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Absentee ballot forms are apparently being sent out with Trump branding.

    Is there a sequel where she shows her displeasure by taking even more of her kit off? I'd watch that.
    You must have a more sophisticated phone than me to see anything racy, unless at my age I don't notice these things any more
    I just doubt the median US recipient-of-dodgy-ballot has quite that cleavage, or displays it so much to make a party political point. And if shown just the initial still and asked to guess what activity she was engaged in I know what I'd say. Perhaps it's just me...
    So a perfectly decently clad young lady showing nothing inappropriate that you couldn't see everyday on your average high st and you jump to conclusions that from the hints in your previous postings are definitely correctly inferred to be sexual.....

    How very woke of you
    I hope you have taken care to flag all my offending posts.

    #thoughtcrime
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,994
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
  • alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Boris is breaking an international treaty which is wrong on so many levels

    He should have declared the talks off and prepared for no deal
    Hang on a minute - i thought you were all in favour of an orderly Brexit with a deal? And yet now you are falling hook line and sinker for any ridiculous propaganda line spun by the British Government and demanding they walk away from the talks as a result?
    I have always wanted a deal but as the EU have not moved at all then it is no deal
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 917

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 383

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    That might be the percentage for people who have had tests. A lot of people in London obviously a crowded and international city may have had the virus last Winter before tests were available.

    A lot of People who did may have shrugged it off as a cold and are now immune, this could explain why the outbreak is not as bad in the capital now as it is in other cities.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,020

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Not that it really bears worth thinking about, but I do wonder what sort of measures governments would need to be considering if there was something somewhere realistically in between those two extremes.

    70% today would basically be a Hollywood apocalypse film. Covid is a massive upheaval and a deep economic stress, but fundamentally hasn't and shouldn't cause our society to keel over (yet, touch wood, etcetera).

    One wonders (and desperately hopes wonder will be the limit of the experience) what would a global pandemic with a (hypothetically, say) 10% mortality rate would be like.
    I would like to think we would be slightly less equivocal about quarantine for a start.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,872
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Don't forget though that for many countries (certainly the UK) the case numbers don't represent positive cases but positive tests. So 1 case tested positive three times = 3 cases.
  • sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    I understand they intend suing for their oil revenues
  • Yes 28 points sorry stupid Maths
Sign In or Register to comment.