Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

1246

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    Meh, I liked, "the people have spoken, the bastards."
  • felixfelix Posts: 11,181
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Not that it really bears worth thinking about, but I do wonder what sort of measures governments would need to be considering if there was something somewhere realistically in between those two extremes.

    70% today would basically be a Hollywood apocalypse film. Covid is a massive upheaval and a deep economic stress, but fundamentally hasn't and shouldn't cause our society to keel over (yet, touch wood, etcetera).

    One wonders (and desperately hopes wonder will be the limit of the experience) what would a global pandemic with a (hypothetically, say) 10% mortality rate would be like.
    I would like to think we would be slightly less equivocal about quarantine for a start.
    A pandemic (like Covid) with a mortality rate of 10% would lead to "Fascist" governments everywhere. Deeply authoritarian, dissent suppressed, foreigners blamed, close all the borders forever.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 261
    The latest Sienna/NY Times state polls have on the face of it good and bad news for both candidates , Minnesota seems interesting . This seemed at one stage to look very close and a chance of a pick up for Trump . This seems to be moving away from Trump there . Nevada is a historically difficult place to poll often underplaying the Latino Dem vote , the last few cycles the Dems have done better than most of the polling. NH there is good news for Trump only 2 points behind but Cohn said there was apparently concerns about voting lists there and Wisconsin at a 5 point lead for Biden is okay , not great but it’s been polled frequently and the lead there is around 5 to 7 points .

  • felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
  • Good evening all.

    sonupnorth has been safely deposited at Hull University for his first term complete with the expected accompaniments for Freshers Week, a big box of face masks and copious amounts of sanitiser.

    I try to catch up with PB threads during gaps in the working week. Tonight's Opinium poll seems at odds with the general tone of this week's threads and comments, which seem to have been relentlessly critical of and negative about the government. I suspect many voters in the North are more understanding of the unprecedented nature of some of the problems the government faces than are some of PB's regular posters.

    On the subject of polls, it's not obvious to me that approval ratings for Mr Starmer have any significance at this stage given the absence of any policy announcements or even directional statements from him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    Con [STILL] Winning Here! :D
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    That might be the percentage for people who have had tests. A lot of people in London obviously a crowded and international city may have had the virus last Winter before tests were available.

    A lot of People who did may have shrugged it off as a cold and are now immune, this could explain why the outbreak is not as bad in the capital now as it is in other cities.
    Although Madrid is showing a different response to London, at present, where it looks really serious compared to large parts of the rest of the country.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 419

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Not that it really bears worth thinking about, but I do wonder what sort of measures governments would need to be considering if there was something somewhere realistically in between those two extremes.

    70% today would basically be a Hollywood apocalypse film. Covid is a massive upheaval and a deep economic stress, but fundamentally hasn't and shouldn't cause our society to keel over (yet, touch wood, etcetera).

    One wonders (and desperately hopes wonder will be the limit of the experience) what would a global pandemic with a (hypothetically, say) 10% mortality rate would be like.
    I would like to think we would be slightly less equivocal about quarantine for a start.
    A pandemic (like Covid) with a mortality rate of 10% would lead to "Fascist" governments everywhere. Deeply authoritarian, dissent suppressed, foreigners blamed, close all the borders forever.
    The Guardian tells us we have all that already on 1% CFR.
  • DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited September 12
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    I'm not sure that Cummings and Johnson do, either. At a certain level , bulding ever greater militant support for a emotional and political event, before it has actually happened, can feel like a sort of endless win-win. Once it has actually happened, conflicting expectations are disappointed, and the political and constitutional ramifications spill in, the trajectory will be all down. It's very much like election campaigns, but the four-year run of this since 2016 has enabled them to grandstand now at adolescent levels. The costs and broken glass for the party, union, economy and society, will all be in the new year.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    edited September 12
    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Don't forget though that for many countries (certainly the UK) the case numbers don't represent positive cases but positive tests. So 1 case tested positive three times = 3 cases.
    I am only surprised that PHE didn't count that as 3 deaths.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Get what? That whatever your personal beliefs on what is right or wrong, you should accept that as irrelevant if the polling evidence says something different?

    Even if, in this case, the opinion on the International Law issue seems to be significantly anti Govt? The evidence, such as it is, would suggest that the Government are sustaining a significant of support because of a residual COVID 'rally round' effect or that, if Brexit related, it is still believed that a deal will happen and/or "no deal" is nothing to fear.

    But if there is no deal and the consequences are severe, then the electorate might just possibly start making the link with such actions as breaking International law (with which they disapprove)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    "Detract" or "distract"? I think either works personally.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    nichomar said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    That might be the percentage for people who have had tests. A lot of people in London obviously a crowded and international city may have had the virus last Winter before tests were available.

    A lot of People who did may have shrugged it off as a cold and are now immune, this could explain why the outbreak is not as bad in the capital now as it is in other cities.
    Although Madrid is showing a different response to London, at present, where it looks really serious compared to large parts of the rest of the country.
    Home working. Widespread in London. Not in Paris or Madrid.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Don’t get what? That people are being seriously misled by a biased press every day which is their only news source if they are even interested. There is nothing that can be offered to a johnson loving voter to change their mind, they are willing to forgive him all and every failure, good luck to them they are welcome to him and his cabinet of muppets.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    alex_ said:

    nichomar said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    That might be the percentage for people who have had tests. A lot of people in London obviously a crowded and international city may have had the virus last Winter before tests were available.

    A lot of People who did may have shrugged it off as a cold and are now immune, this could explain why the outbreak is not as bad in the capital now as it is in other cities.
    Although Madrid is showing a different response to London, at present, where it looks really serious compared to large parts of the rest of the country.
    Home working. Widespread in London. Not in Paris or Madrid.
    But then the herd immunity should be stronger should it not?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
  • alex_ said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Get what? That whatever your personal beliefs on what is right or wrong, you should accept that as irrelevant if the polling evidence says something different?

    Even if, in this case, the opinion on the International Law issue seems to be significantly anti Govt? The evidence, such as it is, would suggest that the Government are sustaining a significant of support because of a residual COVID 'rally round' effect or that, if Brexit related, it is still believed that a deal will happen and/or "no deal" is nothing to fear.

    But if there is no deal and the consequences are severe, then the electorate might just possibly start making the link with such actions as breaking International law (with which they disapprove)
    I do not disagree but the point that suggesting voters are brainwashed by one or two newspapers opinions is insulting to 40% or so who support HMG

    And by the way I have been very vocal against Boris breaking the treaty
  • DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    I can remember folk disliking and even hating Thatcher but still having some grudging respect for her. Not seeing much of that combo with BJ.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Don’t get what? That people are being seriously misled by a biased press every day which is their only news source if they are even interested. There is nothing that can be offered to a johnson loving voter to change their mind, they are willing to forgive him all and every failure, good luck to them they are welcome to him and his cabinet of muppets.
    You massively overstate the impact of the press. Papers are dying. No one is buying them. The internet is WAAAAAAAY more important.

    People get their news from Facebook, Twitter, IG, Google, and friends on WhatsApp and the like, and maybe 5 minutes of BBC News at Ten.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    For somebody who has regularly given the impression of being scared sh*tless by the virus, you don't half get about a bit meeting new people in new situations.
  • LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    The modelling academics have been doing for the government are using a number of ~0.7%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498
    edited September 12
    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Starmer has to hope he is Attlee to Boris' Churchill or Hollande to Boris' Sarkozy
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    nichomar said:

    alex_ said:

    nichomar said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    That might be the percentage for people who have had tests. A lot of people in London obviously a crowded and international city may have had the virus last Winter before tests were available.

    A lot of People who did may have shrugged it off as a cold and are now immune, this could explain why the outbreak is not as bad in the capital now as it is in other cities.
    Although Madrid is showing a different response to London, at present, where it looks really serious compared to large parts of the rest of the country.
    Home working. Widespread in London. Not in Paris or Madrid.
    But then the herd immunity should be stronger should it not?
    It should. Madrid is a challenge to those who think that 20-25% of the population having been infected is enough to bring the R rate under control. Its troubling.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Don’t get what? That people are being seriously misled by a biased press every day which is their only news source if they are even interested. There is nothing that can be offered to a johnson loving voter to change their mind, they are willing to forgive him all and every failure, good luck to them they are welcome to him and his cabinet of muppets.
    You massively overstate the impact of the press. Papers are dying. No one is buying them. The internet is WAAAAAAAY more important.

    People get their news from Facebook, Twitter, IG, Google, and friends on WhatsApp and the like, and maybe 5 minutes of BBC News at Ten.
    Those over 50 don’t, they have just gone online for their daily paper.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Not a good comparison. In 1945 the country was evidently yearning for a leftwards shift after the sacrifices and rigours of a world war.

    Today we have already shifted hugely left, we have no choice, thanks to Covid.

    What, in policy terms, does Starmer offer that profoundly differentiates him from Boris?

    Nothing, that I can clearly see.

    As I have said on here before, what Starmer needs to do is go pro-EEA: thereby winning back all the Remainers and maybe gaining a few Scottish seats as well. It would mark him out, and it would provide clear blue water. It would mean the Blue Wall might not be breached, but I reckon he would gain more elsewhere.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,083
    Looks like a choreographed No Deal bluff.

  • sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    I understand they intend suing for their oil revenues
    Suing who?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,443
    alex_ said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Get what? That whatever your personal beliefs on what is right or wrong, you should accept that as irrelevant if the polling evidence says something different?

    Even if, in this case, the opinion on the International Law issue seems to be significantly anti Govt? The evidence, such as it is, would suggest that the Government are sustaining a significant of support because of a residual COVID 'rally round' effect or that, if Brexit related, it is still believed that a deal will happen and/or "no deal" is nothing to fear.

    But if there is no deal and the consequences are severe, then the electorate might just possibly start making the link with such actions as breaking International law (with which they disapprove)
    It isn't really an international law issue, it's a welshing on a deal issue, which is infinitely more serious. What I don’t understand is why a government which welshes on a deal with Johnny Foreigner should be trusted not to do the same to its own electorate.
  • Narrowing down the polls to 'Conservative gains in 2019', the vote would be 32% Con, 40% Labour
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 419
    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited September 12

    Looks like a choreographed No Deal bluff.

    In which case I would expect the EU to call their bluff.
  • sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    I understand they intend suing for their oil revenues
    Suing who?
    UK and Scottish governments
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    edited September 12

    Looks like a choreographed No Deal bluff.

    In which case I would expect the EU to call their bluff.
    Of course pulling out of the Withdrawal Agreement unambiguously means pulling Northern Ireland out of the Single Market and Customs Union. But as long as it keeps the DUP happy, eh?
  • So do Tories actually think No Deal is a good idea or is it all just an aim to get a better deal
  • LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Don’t get what? That people are being seriously misled by a biased press every day which is their only news source if they are even interested. There is nothing that can be offered to a johnson loving voter to change their mind, they are willing to forgive him all and every failure, good luck to them they are welcome to him and his cabinet of muppets.
    You massively overstate the impact of the press. Papers are dying. No one is buying them. The internet is WAAAAAAAY more important.

    People get their news from Facebook, Twitter, IG, Google, and friends on WhatsApp and the like, and maybe 5 minutes of BBC News at Ten.
    I have to say, I signed up for the Athletic in the week. F##k me, it is so much better than the dead tree press, BBC or Sky Sports.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498
    edited September 12
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Not a good comparison. In 1945 the country was evidently yearning for a leftwards shift after the sacrifices and rigours of a world war.

    Today we have already shifted hugely left, we have no choice, thanks to Covid.

    What, in policy terms, does Starmer offer that profoundly differentiates him from Boris?

    Nothing, that I can clearly see.

    As I have said on here before, what Starmer needs to do is go pro-EEA: thereby winning back all the Remainers and maybe gaining a few Scottish seats as well. It would mark him out, and it would provide clear blue water. It would mean the Blue Wall might not be breached, but I reckon he would gain more elsewhere.
    If we go to No Deal WTO terms Brexit and it hits the economy hard then yes Starmer might win on a shift to a soft Brexit EEA style trade deal with the EU but I cannot see him beating Boris otherwise.

    Plus even if he does become PM I cannot see Starmer being much more than a UK version of Francois Hollande
  • So do Tories actually think No Deal is a good idea or is it all just an aim to get a better deal

    It is the inevitable consequence of the present impasse
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934

    sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    I understand they intend suing for their oil revenues
    Suing who?
    UK and Scottish governments
    Wasn't aware that Oil was a devolved issue.
  • sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    I understand they intend suing for their oil revenues
    Suing who?
    UK and Scottish governments
    Eh? Over what revenue and management of revenue will they be suing the Scottish government?
  • LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    Looks like a choreographed No Deal bluff.

    In which case I would expect the EU to call their bluff.
    Good, No Deal it is. Fuck all this. Enough
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,639
    Evening all :)

    I'm intrigued by the outrage among some to the re-imposition of restrictions by the Government in the light of an increase in Covid cases.

    I've seen all sorts of guff about State control, a dictatorship (Communist or Fascist you choose) and even nonsense about social control and one world Government but basically a sense in which the Government is taking too much control of our lives and comparing the situation to wartime.

    Well, in 1940, you could have been shot by an over-enthusiastic Home Guard soldier at a checkpoint so we aren't quite in that position.

    Throughout my adult life, I've lived with terror and the responses to it and from the Birmingham Pub bombings (which spawned the Prevention of Terrorism Act) through the events of 7/7 in London to more recent outrages in Manchester and London, the usual response has been the same.

    Calls for further restrictions, more powers for the Home Secretary and the surveillance services, more powers to watch over us and has there been any protest against any of this? Basically, no - against terror any form of restriction of private life or monitoring of public life is deemed acceptable in the name of security and safety.

    Yet now we have a virus which has killed far more people than any act of terror or even all acts of terror combined and the response to attempts to try to control the spread of the virus and prevent more deaths is outrage in extremis.

    Don't get me wrong - I find the notion of "Covid Marshals" patrolling the streets absurd but the truth is current laws on mask wearing aren't working because they aren't enforced or enforceable. Walking down East Ham High Street, I see the failure of mask wearing and social distancing measures but do I see any attempt by any kind of authority to enforce the restrictions? I do not.

    I said a few weeks ago if we had a renewed spike in cases, the public would have no one to blame but themselves. It's more nuanced than that - it's who are and how we live. We love the freedom to do what we want when we want how we want and restricting that freedom for long periods is for many unbearable.

    The lifting of restrictions has only led to a reversion to type - we've gone back to the life we had because it was the life we knew and we enjoyed it. With the notable exception of home working (and that's quite a niche thing), the urge to get back to "normal" has been overwhelming.

    I'm left with the thought we could have saved ourselves a lot of bother and saved the economy millions if not billions by adopting the kind of personal and public health regimes over the past 20 years we have now. I suspect the instance of colds and influenza would have been much reduced and there would be much greater public awareness of basic hygiene and health.
  • sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    I understand they intend suing for their oil revenues
    Suing who?
    UK and Scottish governments
    Eh? Over what revenue and management of revenue will they be suing the Scottish government?
    I can only say what the Shetlands CEO said
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,631

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Not that it really bears worth thinking about, but I do wonder what sort of measures governments would need to be considering if there was something somewhere realistically in between those two extremes.

    70% today would basically be a Hollywood apocalypse film. Covid is a massive upheaval and a deep economic stress, but fundamentally hasn't and shouldn't cause our society to keel over (yet, touch wood, etcetera).

    One wonders (and desperately hopes wonder will be the limit of the experience) what would a global pandemic with a (hypothetically, say) 10% mortality rate would be like.
    A pandemic death rate of anything over 30% leads to the collapse of society as we know it imo.

    Clearly Covid-19 is nowhere near that but we should treat it as a warning. As the work becomes ever more densly populated the chances of a truly catastophic pandemic must increase.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260

    So do Tories actually think No Deal is a good idea or is it all just an aim to get a better deal

    Everybody seems to have a different answer to that question so I assume nobody knows.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Not a good comparison. In 1945 the country was evidently yearning for a leftwards shift after the sacrifices and rigours of a world war.

    Today we have already shifted hugely left, we have no choice, thanks to Covid.

    What, in policy terms, does Starmer offer that profoundly differentiates him from Boris?

    Nothing, that I can clearly see.

    As I have said on here before, what Starmer needs to do is go pro-EEA: thereby winning back all the Remainers and maybe gaining a few Scottish seats as well. It would mark him out, and it would provide clear blue water. It would mean the Blue Wall might not be breached, but I reckon he would gain more elsewhere.
    If we go to No Deal WTO terms Brexit and it hits the economy hard then yes Starmer might win on a shift to a soft Brexit EEA style trade deal with the EU but I cannot see him beating Boris otherwise.

    Plus even if he does become PM I cannot see Starmer being much more than a UK version of Francois Hollande
    What do you personally think will be the economic consequences of No Deal, Mr HYUFD?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498
    edited September 12
    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Not a good comparison. In 1945 the country was evidently yearning for a leftwards shift after the sacrifices and rigours of a world war.

    Today we have already shifted hugely left, we have no choice, thanks to Covid.

    What, in policy terms, does Starmer offer that profoundly differentiates him from Boris?

    Nothing, that I can clearly see.

    As I have said on here before, what Starmer needs to do is go pro-EEA: thereby winning back all the Remainers and maybe gaining a few Scottish seats as well. It would mark him out, and it would provide clear blue water. It would mean the Blue Wall might not be breached, but I reckon he would gain more elsewhere.
    If we go to No Deal WTO terms Brexit and it hits the economy hard then yes Starmer might win on a shift to a soft Brexit EEA style trade deal with the EU but I cannot see him beating Boris otherwise.

    Plus even if he does become PM I cannot see Starmer being much more than a UK version of Francois Hollande
    What do you personally think will be the economic consequences of No Deal, Mr HYUFD?
    Well we might lose some gdp but we are going to lose that anyway post Covid lockdown, however we would regain full sovereignty as well and if we get some more new trade deals like that with Japan the damage will be reduced
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    alex_ said:

    nichomar said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    That might be the percentage for people who have had tests. A lot of people in London obviously a crowded and international city may have had the virus last Winter before tests were available.

    A lot of People who did may have shrugged it off as a cold and are now immune, this could explain why the outbreak is not as bad in the capital now as it is in other cities.
    Although Madrid is showing a different response to London, at present, where it looks really serious compared to large parts of the rest of the country.
    Home working. Widespread in London. Not in Paris or Madrid.
    But then the herd immunity should be stronger should it not?
    It should. Madrid is a challenge to those who think that 20-25% of the population having been infected is enough to bring the R rate under control. Its troubling.
    It’s possibly linked to the mass return from the costa where they mixed with extended family for a month, thank goodness they have gone home! Selfish I know but easier to avoid risk with 60% less people about.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,670
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    "It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. "

    Hear, hear. :+1:

    I don't see why this isn't being more widely discussed. Beyond the Spectator.

  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Don’t get what? That people are being seriously misled by a biased press every day which is their only news source if they are even interested. There is nothing that can be offered to a johnson loving voter to change their mind, they are willing to forgive him all and every failure, good luck to them they are welcome to him and his cabinet of muppets.
    You massively overstate the impact of the press. Papers are dying. No one is buying them. The internet is WAAAAAAAY more important.

    People get their news from Facebook, Twitter, IG, Google, and friends on WhatsApp and the like, and maybe 5 minutes of BBC News at Ten.
    I have to say, I signed up for the Athletic in the week. F##k me, it is so much better than the dead tree press, BBC or Sky Sports.
    A fresh and vibrant, net-savvy news media IS quietly evolving. It will flourish and make money. People will always pay for good writing and quality photography, above and beyond what amateur bloggers can do. The success of The Spectator is a clear example.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-spectator-is-hiring-vacancies-across-features-politics-and-data


    Getting there will be painful, however.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Not a good comparison. In 1945 the country was evidently yearning for a leftwards shift after the sacrifices and rigours of a world war.

    Today we have already shifted hugely left, we have no choice, thanks to Covid.

    What, in policy terms, does Starmer offer that profoundly differentiates him from Boris?

    Nothing, that I can clearly see.

    As I have said on here before, what Starmer needs to do is go pro-EEA: thereby winning back all the Remainers and maybe gaining a few Scottish seats as well. It would mark him out, and it would provide clear blue water. It would mean the Blue Wall might not be breached, but I reckon he would gain more elsewhere.
    If we go to No Deal WTO terms Brexit and it hits the economy hard then yes Starmer might win on a shift to a soft Brexit EEA style trade deal with the EU but I cannot see him beating Boris otherwise.

    Plus even if he does become PM I cannot see Starmer being much more than a UK version of Francois Hollande
    What do you personally think will be the economic consequences of No Deal, Mr HYUFD?
    Well we might lose some gdp but we are going to lose that anyway post Covid lockdown, however we would regain full sovereignty as well and if we get some more new trade deals like that with Japan the damage will be reduced
    You expecting a big economic boost from the Japan deal then? Any other particular countries you are looking for to bring benefits to the same extent?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,631
    LadyG said:

    Looks like a choreographed No Deal bluff.

    In which case I would expect the EU to call their bluff.
    Good, No Deal it is. Fuck all this. Enough
    Easy for you to say as you'll be fine LadyG. If your job or you medical supplies were at risk your views might carry some weight.
  • LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Perhaps you could offer to give Starmer some personal advice on how to stand out from the crowd, and be florid and eye-catching rather than dull and forgettable?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,371
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    But are those people obeying the letter of the rules? I wonder if this is a bit like people wanting higher taxes for other people.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Not a good comparison. In 1945 the country was evidently yearning for a leftwards shift after the sacrifices and rigours of a world war.

    Today we have already shifted hugely left, we have no choice, thanks to Covid.

    What, in policy terms, does Starmer offer that profoundly differentiates him from Boris?

    Nothing, that I can clearly see.

    As I have said on here before, what Starmer needs to do is go pro-EEA: thereby winning back all the Remainers and maybe gaining a few Scottish seats as well. It would mark him out, and it would provide clear blue water. It would mean the Blue Wall might not be breached, but I reckon he would gain more elsewhere.
    If we go to No Deal WTO terms Brexit and it hits the economy hard then yes Starmer might win on a shift to a soft Brexit EEA style trade deal with the EU but I cannot see him beating Boris otherwise.

    Plus even if he does become PM I cannot see Starmer being much more than a UK version of Francois Hollande
    What do you personally think will be the economic consequences of No Deal, Mr HYUFD?
    Well we might lose some gdp but we are going to lose that anyway post Covid lockdown, however we would regain full sovereignty as well and if we get some more new trade deals like that with Japan the damage will be reduced
    Has to go through Japanese parliament yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,782
    sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    Is that right? I asked earlier about where in the UNCLOS this idea of "enclave" islands comes from, as it isn't mentioned in the actual text of the agreement. In fact, Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, the tiny French island off Canada, gives the French a strip of EEZ extending 200miles off the Canadian coast.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Saint-Pierre_and_Miquelon_EEZ_map-en.svg
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,670
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm intrigued by the outrage among some to the re-imposition of restrictions by the Government in the light of an increase in Covid cases.

    I've seen all sorts of guff about State control, a dictatorship (Communist or Fascist you choose) and even nonsense about social control and one world Government but basically a sense in which the Government is taking too much control of our lives and comparing the situation to wartime.

    Well, in 1940, you could have been shot by an over-enthusiastic Home Guard soldier at a checkpoint so we aren't quite in that position.

    Throughout my adult life, I've lived with terror and the responses to it and from the Birmingham Pub bombings (which spawned the Prevention of Terrorism Act) through the events of 7/7 in London to more recent outrages in Manchester and London, the usual response has been the same.

    Calls for further restrictions, more powers for the Home Secretary and the surveillance services, more powers to watch over us and has there been any protest against any of this? Basically, no - against terror any form of restriction of private life or monitoring of public life is deemed acceptable in the name of security and safety.

    Yet now we have a virus which has killed far more people than any act of terror or even all acts of terror combined and the response to attempts to try to control the spread of the virus and prevent more deaths is outrage in extremis.

    Don't get me wrong - I find the notion of "Covid Marshals" patrolling the streets absurd but the truth is current laws on mask wearing aren't working because they aren't enforced or enforceable. Walking down East Ham High Street, I see the failure of mask wearing and social distancing measures but do I see any attempt by any kind of authority to enforce the restrictions? I do not.

    I said a few weeks ago if we had a renewed spike in cases, the public would have no one to blame but themselves. It's more nuanced than that - it's who are and how we live. We love the freedom to do what we want when we want how we want and restricting that freedom for long periods is for many unbearable.

    The lifting of restrictions has only led to a reversion to type - we've gone back to the life we had because it was the life we knew and we enjoyed it. With the notable exception of home working (and that's quite a niche thing), the urge to get back to "normal" has been overwhelming.

    I'm left with the thought we could have saved ourselves a lot of bother and saved the economy millions if not billions by adopting the kind of personal and public health regimes over the past 20 years we have now. I suspect the instance of colds and influenza would have been much reduced and there would be much greater public awareness of basic hygiene and health.

    "by adopting the kind of personal and public health regimes over the past 20 years we have now."

    And there it is! The beginning of what I warned of yesterday or this morning (I forget which).

    Once all this is over, there'll be pressure to repeat every flu season unless we are very careful. The NHS needs this will be the cry and so on and on.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    tlg86 said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    But are those people obeying the letter of the rules? I wonder if this is a bit like people wanting higher taxes for other people.
    I would also point out that from what i've seen a fair bit of the polling on these issues has often been linked to some rather leading questions. Such as "would you support the imposition of a night-time curfew to prevent a second wave?"
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,639
    edited September 12



    "It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. "

    Hear, hear. :+1:

    I don't see why this isn't being more widely discussed. Beyond the Spectator.

    What do you want to discuss? The measures outlined by our Government have been widely flouted by sections of the population because they know the new rules are completely unenforceable.

    Sweden is not the UK - the population density is one issue.

    I'm also (and this may be an absurdly stereotypical view) convinced the Swedes are a pragmatic people who are able to see the benefit of making small changes and just as they eschewed Communism and Fascism for Social Democracy so they have eschewed the American and Asian responses to the virus and have created their own which works for them but may not work for others.

    It would be disingenuous to say life in Sweden has continued without changes and it's also true to say they have suffered their share of deaths.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498
    Let's say an interesting new version of Jerusalem at Last Night of the Proms
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 419
    RobD said:

    sarissa said:

    3 point lead Tories as expected

    I think the EU overreacted by threatening the UK

    Boris wrong on internal market bill but the EU wrong to threaten the UK
    Dear God, do you Tory cult members ever see reality. Explain the threat the EU made, they have been as nice as they could be despite having to deal with a venal bunch of lying cheating nasty wasters.
    Wait until Shetlands declare Independence
    Should never have let them accumulate an oil fund (£500 per capita per annum extra at a recent estimate). I don’t suppose they realise the oil and non-inshore fishing rights will disappear under UNCLOS - maybe Boris is advising them...
    Is that right? I asked earlier about where in the UNCLOS this idea of "enclave" islands comes from, as it isn't mentioned in the actual text of the agreement. In fact, Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, the tiny French island off Canada, gives the French a strip of EEZ extending 200miles off the Canadian coast.

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Saint-Pierre_and_Miquelon_EEZ_map-en.svg
    Well at least that will mean one less Lib/Dem in Parliament.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,631
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Agreed. I can only assume Starmer is playing a long game and waiting until a Momentum-led backlash is less of a threat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,670
    nichomar said:

    So do Tories actually think No Deal is a good idea or is it all just an aim to get a better deal

    Everybody seems to have a different answer to that question so I assume nobody knows.
    Spectator piece points out that No Deal looks the most likely now and one of the main reasons (maybe the main reason) is that any deal will be used as an excuse for Farage to start a new party and take 10% off the Tories polling position.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498
    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Well some people might disagree on Cooper's talents, but she's currently in a position which probably gives her more influence than the Shadow Cabinet so isn't likely to be tempted (Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    There still seems to a reluctance to bring on those who refused to serve under the blessed (other words are available) Corbyn. I hope this is only an interim stage whilst what is left of Corbyn's sordid reputation is demolished by the anti Semitism inquiry.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited September 12

    nichomar said:

    So do Tories actually think No Deal is a good idea or is it all just an aim to get a better deal

    Everybody seems to have a different answer to that question so I assume nobody knows.
    Spectator piece points out that No Deal looks the most likely now and one of the main reasons (maybe the main reason) is that any deal will be used as an excuse for Farage to start a new party and take 10% off the Tories polling position.
    This is the why the Tories have had it in the long-term, at least for this generation of them. The disappointment and surprise of pragmatists in the new year, or the disappointment of the militants and more ideological.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,808
    HYUFD said:

    Let's say an interesting new version of Jerusalem at Last Night of the Proms

    I wonder when the next performance will be?
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So this supposed shameful breach of international law to avoid a hard border between NI and GB has led to a 1.5% swing to the Tories and a 3% Tory lead.

    Shows how out of touch the Westminster bubble can be with the rest of the country
    Shows how little the majority know about the issue apart from what’s in the mail, express and sun.
    Contempt for the voters is never a good look....
    The voters don’t give a shit what I think, those papers show contempt for the voters every day by spoon feeding them tripe.
    You don't get it do you?
    No he really does not
    Don’t get what? That people are being seriously misled by a biased press every day which is their only news source if they are even interested. There is nothing that can be offered to a johnson loving voter to change their mind, they are willing to forgive him all and every failure, good luck to them they are welcome to him and his cabinet of muppets.
    You massively overstate the impact of the press. Papers are dying. No one is buying them. The internet is WAAAAAAAY more important.

    People get their news from Facebook, Twitter, IG, Google, and friends on WhatsApp and the like, and maybe 5 minutes of BBC News at Ten.
    I have to say, I signed up for the Athletic in the week. F##k me, it is so much better than the dead tree press, BBC or Sky Sports.
    A fresh and vibrant, net-savvy news media IS quietly evolving. It will flourish and make money. People will always pay for good writing and quality photography, above and beyond what amateur bloggers can do. The success of The Spectator is a clear example.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-spectator-is-hiring-vacancies-across-features-politics-and-data


    Getting there will be painful, however.
    This evening on Sky, Graham Souness, main pundit for Sky Sports admitted he hadn't watched Leeds play before.....You go on Tifo, detailed break down of tactics, loads of insight and stories about Leeds manager, etc etc etc.

    Its like COVID, so many great interviews on YouTube channels like Unherd, I flick on BBC or Sky and they can't even get the basic stats right between screaming CONFUSED in response to every announcement.
  • Which part of Scotland is he living in now?
  • HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,014

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    "It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. "

    Hear, hear. :+1:

    I don't see why this isn't being more widely discussed. Beyond the Spectator.

    The funny bit is, of course, that the Swedes are not quite as enthusiastic as The Spectator.

    Pew Research surveyed people in 14 countries. Sweden was middle of the road in terms of how people felt the government had done. Better, for sure, than how the Brits feel about their government response. But much worse than neighbouring Germany or Denmark.

    And if you go further and ask Swedes which countries have done better than them, they also say that the German and Danish responses have been better. (Albeit they say that they've done better than Spain or Italy or the UK.)

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,934
    stodge said:



    "It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. "

    Hear, hear. :+1:

    I don't see why this isn't being more widely discussed. Beyond the Spectator.

    What do you want to discuss? The measures outlined by our Government have been widely flouted by sections of the population because they know the new rules are completely unenforceable.

    Sweden is not the UK - the population density is one issue.

    I'm also (and this may be an absurdly stereotypical view) convinced the Swedes are a pragmatic people who are able to see the benefit of making small changes and just as they eschewed Communism and Fascism for Social Democracy so they have eschewed the American and Asian responses to the virus and have created their own which works for them but may not work for others.

    It would be disingenuous to say life in Sweden has continued without changes and it's also true to say they have suffered their share of deaths.

    It was pointed out earlier that Sweden has imposed some quite dramatic measures, just in different areas to those contemplated by the UK. All universities online since the crisis started, banning of all travel from outside the EU, no visiting to retirement homes, a few others.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498

    Which part of Scotland is he living in now?
    'McGregor divides his time living between Los Angeles, California and St John's Wood, London'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ewan_McGregor
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,443

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    "It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. "

    Hear, hear. :+1:

    I don't see why this isn't being more widely discussed. Beyond the Spectator.

    Because politics is the art of the possible. Doing a Sweden was just borderline possible in Sweden. Utterly impossible here.
  • LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Who cares about Hard Brexit anyway? We're headed for Black Death 2.0

    No one will notice

    The more recent estimates of black death mortality are closer to 70% than the traditional 50% and that is of the entire population. Covid kills between 1 and 2% of those who get it, mainly the old and infirm. Unless something more unpleasant is coming our way I think that the comparison is imperfect.
    Is it that low, on radio this morning the experts said it was 3-4% versus 0.1% for flu. hard to know what is the truth nowadays.
    It's definitely not as high as that. According to Worldometer 4% of the 21.6m who have tested positive have died. The question is how many more people have had it but not been tested (because they didn't get that ill). If it is 4x the number tested its 1%, if its 2x its 2%. I think most medical analysis has suggested that it is somewhere in that area.
    Yes, I was clearly jesting when I said Black Death 2.0

    I reckon 1-2% CFR is about right, unless a health system is overwhelmed. It may even be less, as we get ever better treatments and protocols.

    What worries me now is the hideous impact on the global economy. That's where the second wave could be WORSE than the first.
    Don't think so because I don't think we will lock down in the same way again. Hindsight etc but that was probably a mistake even if it was justified on the precautionary principle.
    I hope you're right. It seems clear to me now that the Swedish approach was largely right. Not perfect, and it comes at a cost, but this is a plague, there is always a cost.

    However lots of other countries (inc GB) have taken a different route and tried much more forceful repression. Can they now step back and go all Stockholm and casual?

    It seems very hard, emotionally and politically. Look at what is happening in Melbourne and Israel. Democratic countries have scared the shit out of the voters, and now the voters want and expect total lockdowns, again and again, and zero deaths. It's insane. But this may be what we get through autumn and winter and I shudder at the economic damage it might incur.
    Some voters.

    Other voters want fewer restrictions.
    Polls consistently show that voters generally like and approve harsher restrictions. Humanity has a puritan streak.

    I wish this weren't the case, but it is.
    People want restrictions and taxes on other people while getting freedoms and handouts for themselves.

    There are trade offs and tipping points.

    For example restrictions on international travel don't bother me but they certainly are bothering those people obsessed with foreign holidays.

    Restrictions on gyms/pools would bother me though while not bothering others.

    Too many restrictions and too many people get annoyed.

    Added to which too many restrictions and too many people lose their jobs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,014
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I'm intrigued by the outrage among some to the re-imposition of restrictions by the Government in the light of an increase in Covid cases.

    I've seen all sorts of guff about State control, a dictatorship (Communist or Fascist you choose) and even nonsense about social control and one world Government but basically a sense in which the Government is taking too much control of our lives and comparing the situation to wartime.

    Well, in 1940, you could have been shot by an over-enthusiastic Home Guard soldier at a checkpoint so we aren't quite in that position.

    Throughout my adult life, I've lived with terror and the responses to it and from the Birmingham Pub bombings (which spawned the Prevention of Terrorism Act) through the events of 7/7 in London to more recent outrages in Manchester and London, the usual response has been the same.

    Calls for further restrictions, more powers for the Home Secretary and the surveillance services, more powers to watch over us and has there been any protest against any of this? Basically, no - against terror any form of restriction of private life or monitoring of public life is deemed acceptable in the name of security and safety.

    Yet now we have a virus which has killed far more people than any act of terror or even all acts of terror combined and the response to attempts to try to control the spread of the virus and prevent more deaths is outrage in extremis.

    Don't get me wrong - I find the notion of "Covid Marshals" patrolling the streets absurd but the truth is current laws on mask wearing aren't working because they aren't enforced or enforceable. Walking down East Ham High Street, I see the failure of mask wearing and social distancing measures but do I see any attempt by any kind of authority to enforce the restrictions? I do not.

    I said a few weeks ago if we had a renewed spike in cases, the public would have no one to blame but themselves. It's more nuanced than that - it's who are and how we live. We love the freedom to do what we want when we want how we want and restricting that freedom for long periods is for many unbearable.

    The lifting of restrictions has only led to a reversion to type - we've gone back to the life we had because it was the life we knew and we enjoyed it. With the notable exception of home working (and that's quite a niche thing), the urge to get back to "normal" has been overwhelming.

    I'm left with the thought we could have saved ourselves a lot of bother and saved the economy millions if not billions by adopting the kind of personal and public health regimes over the past 20 years we have now. I suspect the instance of colds and influenza would have been much reduced and there would be much greater public awareness of basic hygiene and health.

    Good piece @stodge
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    Ask the question who wins from no deal? Someone must as there is a driving force behind achieving it, it isn’t joe public but someone out there is waiting to bank a fortune and it’s not coming from Paddy Power.
  • He's no Andy Murray.
  • Which part of Scotland is he living in now?
    What part of Scotland do all those PB randoms with opinions on indy live in?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097
    Hardly news.

    It is interesting, however, how many wealthy Scots residents of northwest London, England, are in favour or Scottish Independence.

    "Agreeing with the majority of the Scottish population, Ewan McGregor has voiced his opposition to Brexit. Although opposed to Scottish independence from the United Kingdom in the 2014 Scottish referendum, he later declared during an interview in 2017 that he would have voted for Scotland to leave the UK if he had been able to cast his vote the day after the UK left the EU.

    McGregor divides his time living between Los Angeles, California and St John's Wood, London."


    For instance, I have not forgotten actor Brian Cox's stern avowal in favour of Scotch separatism, broadcast from the mean streets of...... Primrose Hill. Where he lives.


    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alastair-campbell-meets-brian-cox-to-discuss-brexit-scottish-independence-and-swearing-1-6512500
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,498

    HYUFD said:

    Another luvvie backs Yes, should add an extra 5% to the No vote
    Was that the way it worked in 2014 when all those luvvies came out for No?
    andy murray, brian cox, sir sean connery, alan cumming etc all backed yes in 2014
  • HYUFD said:

    Which part of Scotland is he living in now?
    'McGregor divides his time living between Los Angeles, California and St John's Wood, London'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ewan_McGregor
    You'll be telling me that Sean Connery doesn't live there either next.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,598
    alex_ said:

    LadyG said:

    DavidL said:

    DeClare said:

    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Keir back up to +20 approval suggests it's a MoE change, I suspect it's a true Tory lead of a couple of points, including last week

    The question is why do they have any lead
    Because clearly the voters love Boris BigG and he is safe as houses
    Boris approval ratings do not support that
    Like Mrs Thatcher Boris polarises opinion, some people love him, some can't stand him and not many people have no opinion about him.

    Sir Keir on the other hand is a rather dull ex lawyer and he hasn't really done anything to upset anyone.

    A problem for Labour is that they don't seem to have any big personalities on their front bench to detract from their boring leader.
    Good post
    When I was in Greece recently I was struck by how many Greek people could not only identify Boris, but also had a firm opinion on him (good and bad).

    And this wasn't just Pelion (where his family have a home). It was everywhere.

    He must be one of the most identifiable world politicians of the moment. He has a global brand.

    Starmer, by contrast, is simply not visible. He has zero salience. Right now this might not matter, but being incredibly dull and forgettable WILL matter in the end. Not sure how he fixes this,
    Could you not have said the same about Churchill and Attlee? It turned out not to be decisive.
    Attlee had an impressive programme of new policies, the welfare state, improved education, better housing and decolonisation were all on the agenda.

    In the aftermath of World War II people wanted changes, not to go back to the old ways.

    Despite this, the Attlee government only lasted six years and Churchill was back, although Churchill was the right man for wartime, he was a bit of a failure before and afterwards.
    I was merely making the point that pretty much everyone in Greece would have known about Churchill and damn few, if any about Attlee. Didn't do Churchill any good and Boris has some way to go to acquire an equivalent body of accomplishments.

    As someone who is a general, if selective, supporter of this government I would not rely on SKS's image of boring competence being as voter repellant as @LadyG suggests. I would agree, however, that SKS is somewhat hampered by a shadow cabinet that makes even this cabinet look good. Labour need a team, not a band of 1, and they don't have it. Ashworth and Reeves are useful. After that, its a bit of a struggle.
    I don't understand why Starmer hasn't recruited people like Yvette Cooper. She's streets ahead of Anneliese Dodds, in every department.

    Is it internal left-right Labour politics? If so Starmer should get over it. Cooper is good and competent and telegenic. She'd be a challenge for Sunak as Shad Chancellor.

    There is talent in the PLP, it's just wasting away on the backbenches.
    Well some people might disagree on Cooper's talents, but she's currently in a position which probably gives her more influence than the Shadow Cabinet so isn't likely to be tempted (Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee)
    Similar issues for Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan who don't even want to be in Parliament because they get to run things and make actual decisions.
  • @LadyG Sean is your next account going to be a LGBTQ+ Europhile? We've had right-wing Brexiteer and centrist already
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited September 12
    nichomar said:

    Ask the question who wins from no deal? Someone must as there is a driving force behind achieving it, it isn’t joe public but someone out there is waiting to bank a fortune and it’s not coming from Paddy Power.

    Farage did very well on Brexit day, and was almost unashamed who knew about it ; Crispin Odey and other hedge fund donors will net another few million ; and Somerset Capital in Dublin and JRM may do very well too.
  • In other news, I haven't been on a train (of any sort) for SIX MONTHS!

    #withdrawal
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,097

    Which part of Scotland is he living in now?
    What part of Scotland do all those PB randoms with opinions on indy live in?
    We live in the United Kingdom, which includes Scotland. And you aren't getting a 2nd indyvote, because English Tories say so, and you can go suck it up, loser.
  • LadyG said:

    Hardly news.

    It is interesting, however, how many wealthy Scots residents of northwest London, England, are in favour or Scottish Independence.

    "Agreeing with the majority of the Scottish population, Ewan McGregor has voiced his opposition to Brexit. Although opposed to Scottish independence from the United Kingdom in the 2014 Scottish referendum, he later declared during an interview in 2017 that he would have voted for Scotland to leave the UK if he had been able to cast his vote the day after the UK left the EU.

    McGregor divides his time living between Los Angeles, California and St John's Wood, London."


    For instance, I have not forgotten actor Brian Cox's stern avowal in favour of Scotch separatism, broadcast from the mean streets of...... Primrose Hill. Where he lives.


    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alastair-campbell-meets-brian-cox-to-discuss-brexit-scottish-independence-and-swearing-1-6512500
    At least Coxy actually lives in Primrose Hill.
    And folk in Scotland might have heard of him.
This discussion has been closed.