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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates
The next big event in the White House race is the the first TV debate between Trump and Biden – something that at previous elections contenders have put a lot of effort preparing for trying to anticipate how the event will go and have ready some biting attack lines.
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England-only 1992 GE:
Conservative 319
Labour 195
England-only 1997 GE:
Labour 328
Conservative 165
Anyway, surely this is just an attempt at resetting expectations - if the debates go badly for the incumbant its because he wasn't even trying.
Er, this is exactly what Trump said and how it was reported this time in 2016:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/donald-trump-debate-prep
'Donald Trump may be down in the polls, but he doesn’t appear to be worried about the upcoming presidential debates. While Hillary Clinton is reportedly taking a characteristically multi-disciplinary approach to preparing for their three face-to-face meetings, poring over policy briefings, consulting experts in psychology about her opponent’s state of mind, and grilling his former ghostwriter for firsthand knowledge about his temperament, Trump has reportedly declined to do his pre-debate homework. Despite the fact that the televised debates are the Republican nominee’s best chance to turn the tables on Clinton ahead of Election Day, Trump, according to reports, is just going to wing it.'
'Trump campaign staffers have put together briefing books, The Washington Post reports, but the candidate has hardly looked at them. “I believe you can prep too much for those things,” Trump recently told The New York Times, suggesting that reviewing policy or conducting mock debates might jeopardize his blustery authenticity. “It can be dangerous. You can sound scripted or phony—like you’re trying to be someone you’re not.”'
Nothing has changed, as it were.
It's more common here I think.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1303680056577994757
When the gestapo did it. the big problem they had was that they were inundated. They never had enough staff to cope with the numbers of denunciations.
Think Biden still wins as the "Who won" split will follow the generic polls.
There is a hitherto unnoticed sleeping army of "retired environmental officers?"
Have they been lying dormant in some underground lair awaiting the call to arise!?
This is like one of the non-Russell T Davies Torchwoods.
FFS!
When did we become East-Germany-on-Sea?
They'll probably still get tripped up by a Dunny-in-the-Wold Parish Council resolution....
So if he beats Biden in any debate this autumn it will be a bonus for his campaign relative to 2016
As I say when the Gestapo did it, they were inundated. What's to stop people informing maliciously?
And here we are...
No COVID, no excuse.
Basically, if you're supporting this government for libertarian reasons, you've been had.
It could be a modern day droit du seigneur.
Keir Starmer supports HMG and urges everyone to follow the rules
Also he wants the rules enforced
I stand by my 10% estimate for his chances but this won't likely help him. There's a part of me that thinks he maybe isn't even giving it all and is just going through the motions for fun now.
The fact is, these things are being done.
But I'm not a libertarian.
I very much doubt Trump is skipping preparation.
What is everyone's headline prediction (12 words or fewer) for US elections? Broadly mine is 'Biden to squeak it because Great Lake states turn blue'.
I mean, it's not as if his core vote is hot on textual analysis.
Then we're headed for an epic shitshow.
Where the populist thug, who got away with winging it as a non-incumbent candidate, gets regularly eaten alive by a properly prepared, sane, intelligent (but uncharismatic) contender.
Yet, however awful Johnson is at PMQs, the Tories' share of voting intentions has hardly moved, and in almost every poll is better than Cameron or Thatcher managed a year into office.
What matters isn't how political geeks rate the performance: it's how the populist heartland see things. And in Britain right now, it's almost as if the more Starmer makes Johnson look a pillock, the more the Johnson core react "Well, that's just another smartarse lawyer with 20/20 hindsight"
Trump's shown once that he understands Middle America better than the Dems.
What the hell happened to us? We've collectively lost our minds.
That seems to be the way to ease these restrictions.
I wonder how far this needs to get before they think things are not OK.
1) If someone makes money its fine and safe to mix
2) If no one is making money then you mustn't mix.
The public aren't as stupid as Boris is hoping
As it happens, she's a bitch. There are plenty out there. How much encouragement you want to give such people? You want them forming vigilante groups? I promise you they'd love it.
BTW - I no longer report burglary or assault because the Police do f--- all about it. The last time I reported somebody stealing a car (and photographed it) they did not even want the photos. The force involved was Greater Manchester Police (save you asking)
How long before these restrictions need to happen every winter because of flu? Maybe that is too paranoid, but it something people should at least ask.
I'm also curious as to what Contrarian thinks the motive behind these new measures is. He's always angry about stuff, but I just don't see these restrictions as a government attempt to court popularity. What's in it for them?
1) You do what we fucking tell you
2) We do what we fucking like.
We have seen it time and time and time again, including today.
This is because Cummings and Johnson genuinely think they’re brilliant and rules don’t apply to them. But they want us to do what we’re told because most men with small brains and probably smaller penises, they get a thrill from feeling powerful.
its quite clear things are not going to happen like that.
https://twitter.com/jbdunster/status/1303283407095558144?s=20
The flight time of a North Korean ballistic missile to the US would be of the order of 40 minutes.
Given detection delays, chain of command etc. 2 extra minutes could be vital.
I remember back at the start of this crisis remarking to a friend that the UK (and, in particular, my vulnerable relatives) are fucked because people are too bloody-minded and self-entitled to follow rules and too timid to challenge or report others breaking the rules. How prescient was that?
Tories: +8
"Local glazier, finding our lane blocked, screamed blue murder at a 45 tonne piling rig: rang the police in front of us all.
Poor bloke, he managed to make a real fool of himself in front of everyone.
Especially when the super-helpful copper reminded him (he's a local) that our lane has two entrances or exits, and he could simply turn round and reach his customers by using the other entrance.
The local copper popped in the other day.... we both giggled at the memory. "
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1303737681650888706?s=20