He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
We won't be waking up on the day after the election because we won't have gone to sleep.
Anyway - big Biden spread bet on supremacy with smaller hedge on the fixed odds Trump to hold Florida. That is me atm.
It could be a few days before the results are in. Will Fox News hold off calling the states before the postal votes have been tallied - if not it could get violent.
Well I won't be sleeping until the winner is clear. So I'm hoping it doesn't drag on too long. Reckon I can go 72 hours.
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Closing pubs could easily make things worse, driving social meetups into people's homes with less social distancing, and larger groups being impossible to police.
He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
We won't be waking up on the day after the election because we won't have gone to sleep.
Anyway - big Biden spread bet on supremacy with smaller hedge on the fixed odds Trump to hold Florida. That is me atm.
It could be a few days before the results are in. Will Fox News hold off calling the states before the postal votes have been tallied - if not it could get violent.
Sorry your question. No I'm confident that Fox will not behave as a Trump agent. They'll do things properly.
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Closing pubs could easily make things worse, driving social meetups into people's homes with less social distancing, and larger groups being impossible to police.
It’s hard to imagine there will be larger groups than schools out there, although the hoops I am having to jump through on H+S grounds are beyond crazy.
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Personally, foreign travel for pleasure can go, but i think Carl Henigans suggestions on focusing on protecting the old, especially in care homes, is the real crucial strategy e.g. we need to move to a situation where we don't have any agency workers bouncing between homes.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
But Phillip...
The EU can only treat the UK as equal by denying the maths. 70 million people is less than 500 million. It would be profoundly unfair to the people living in EU states to pretend otherwise.
You are clearly chilled about the consequences of no deal. Great for you. But the pretence that the EU could ever treat a single country as equal to a union of 27 is for the faries.
You want a ballsy libertine pirate island. It's a valid view, albeit one I don't share. But argue for it honestly, rather than complaining when a larger unit uses the power they get by being a larger unit.
@Philip_Thompson do you admit now that the deal is rubbish or you still think it's good?
I think it was ok. Better than Mays deal and good enough for the past 12 months so now we need to sort out the future.
So then why change it? This is really poor Philip.
Because the transition only lasted 12 months and then it expires.
Ah so you want to cherry pick the bits you like and not the rest. Also, as is repeatedly ignored, the NI Protocol which you and the govt now want to unpick was designed to avoid a border on the island of Ireland. There was a time when the Govt specifically said that this wasn't necessary because we could employ "technological solutions" instead. How are they coming along? Presumably ready to go.
Otherwise there's a hard border within a few months. Probably put in place by us because of the massive gap in the UK's control of its own borders.
This isn't just a theoretical change by the UK with no consequences.
Oh dear, the biggest Tory attack shut down, what will Cummings cry about now?
Yes. We say to them Tories. This is boring. You said you'd get Brexit done so get it done. By the end of the year and not a moment longer. Do or Die for fucks sake. Grow a pair, get it over with, deal or no deal. Sort it Mr Johnson. Own it Mr Johnson. Then we can talk about more important things.
Keir is listening. His Ch4 interview just now was exactly this.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
Do you think it is the massive corruption scandal engulfing the GOP there? The Kasich endorsementcof Biden? Or maybe Trump demanding a boycott of Goodyear Tyres (Headquarters Akron, Ohio)?
I just can't put my finger on why Republicans are in trouble there.
One thing that I have seen a number of times - a scandal/dramatic moment happens. The polls don't move immediately.
Then a week of 2 later...
The military thing?
One would think that would have an impact. It was pretty grisly.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
But Phillip...
The EU can only treat the UK as equal by denying the maths. 70 million people is less than 500 million. It would be profoundly unfair to the people living in EU states to pretend otherwise.
You are clearly chilled about the consequences of no deal. Great for you. But the pretence that the EU could ever treat a single country as equal to a union of 27 is for the faries.
You want a ballsy libertine pirate island. It's a valid view, albeit one I don't share. But argue for it honestly, rather than complaining when a larger unit uses the power they get by being a larger unit.
The UK is in dispute over two areas of contention.
Fish - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Norway. LPF - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Canada.
The EU is content to recognise Norway and Canada as sovereign equals on those issues and guess what, but they're both much smaller countries than the UK is economically.
So no I don't except this 500mn nonsense. It is claptrap pure and simple.
30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced? The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.
Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.
It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
Hospitals are empty, Covid was on the death certificate of 1.1% of deaths w/e 28/8. Do you think we should lock down the whole country again with the untold disaster that that would bring to people lives? Today and everyday around 30 men have died of Prostrate cancer.
How many have died of flu in the week that 30 have passed from covid?
Based on the ONS figures around 900
Though as flu is rarely confirmed by viral swab, can we be sure? Even if covid negative, there would be false negatives (around 30% of covid patients) and obviously excess deaths couldn't distinguish the two.
In other words, were these 900 really flu?
Is anyone dying of "flu" in the UK *not* being tested, at the moment?
Yes.
Those in hospital will be covid tested Those in nursing homes, probably Those in the community, maybe.
Usually flu deaths are projected from excess mortality, and viral testing and serotyping at a representative panel of GP surgeries. Less than 5% of flu deaths get virologically tested normally.
I don’t know how the national flu survey is functioning at the moment, but clearly the system is not so reliable when there is another fatal respiratory virus about.
The February flu survey is how we know Covid-19 was not circulating in the community before the end of Feb, and how we identified some of the early community spread.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
But Phillip...
The EU can only treat the UK as equal by denying the maths. 70 million people is less than 500 million. It would be profoundly unfair to the people living in EU states to pretend otherwise.
You are clearly chilled about the consequences of no deal. Great for you. But the pretence that the EU could ever treat a single country as equal to a union of 27 is for the faries.
You want a ballsy libertine pirate island. It's a valid view, albeit one I don't share. But argue for it honestly, rather than complaining when a larger unit uses the power they get by being a larger unit.
The UK is in dispute over two areas of contention.
Fish - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Norway. LPF - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Canada.
The EU is content to recognise Norway and Canada as sovereign equals on those issues and guess what, but they're both much smaller countries than the UK is economically.
So no I don't except this 500mn nonsense. It is claptrap pure and simple.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
But Phillip...
The EU can only treat the UK as equal by denying the maths. 70 million people is less than 500 million. It would be profoundly unfair to the people living in EU states to pretend otherwise.
You are clearly chilled about the consequences of no deal. Great for you. But the pretence that the EU could ever treat a single country as equal to a union of 27 is for the faries.
You want a ballsy libertine pirate island. It's a valid view, albeit one I don't share. But argue for it honestly, rather than complaining when a larger unit uses the power they get by being a larger unit.
It's $3tn vs $14tn in GDP, there is a very good amount of deal to be done. Without all of the political bullshit the Canada style deal is a no brainer and both sides would be doing it. If anything a Canada+ with customs pre-clearance would be a no brainer, but I can understand there are significant trust issues that both sides would need to deal with and maybe even have customs agents at each other's major ports. However, pretending that the EU don't need a deal is actually for the faeries.
Neither side wins from no deal, if anything the UK is probably better equipped to handle it due to having a shorter decision making process and being nimbler in a changing market, the EU has 27 different agendas to handle on trade policy, the UK doesn't, it has one and after Boris falls due to no deal it will probably have a pretty clear policy as well.
The worst part about this assault on rule of law is that Boris jeopardising the only credible no deal economic policy of drawing in FDI with competitive tax rates and a friendly regulatory environment for business and investment. Foreign investors are currently taking fright at the UK's disregard for its own agreements.
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
The entire poll is based on 500 voters so it's silly to try and draw any conclusions from a subsample. Even the article says "Those [Hispanic] numbers — are based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error "
Well, I have always said I have a problem with the quality of American polls.
However, criticising a poll of 500 voters in Miami-Dade when people seem willing to accept without question the findings of a 1,000-2,000 national opinion poll across the US seems slightly odd.
No, not odd at all.
We should all know, for example, that approximately 55% of voters in Presidential elections are women. We should all know that around 28% of voters are Registered Republicans. We should all know that the young are less likely to vote than the old.
If we have a poll without those crosstabs, then we have no idea whether its weightings in any way match the likely weightings of the electorate. Trusting a poll without knowing how it is constructed is taking an awful lot on faith.
We also know how accurate - in aggregate - national polls have been in the past.
They have been judged, analysed, pored over, compared, and rated.
@Philip_Thompson do you admit now that the deal is rubbish or you still think it's good?
I think it was ok. Better than Mays deal and good enough for the past 12 months so now we need to sort out the future.
So then why change it? This is really poor Philip.
Because the transition only lasted 12 months and then it expires.
Ah so you want to cherry pick the bits you like and not the rest. Also, as is repeatedly ignored, the NI Protocol which you and the govt now want to unpick was designed to avoid a border on the island of Ireland. There was a time when the Govt specifically said that this wasn't necessary because we could employ "technological solutions" instead. How are they coming along? Presumably ready to go.
Otherwise there's a hard border within a few months. Probably put in place by us because of the massive gap in the UK's control of its own borders.
This isn't just a theoretical change by the UK with no consequences.
Yes. I want to cherrypick the bits it is what the EU does all the time.
Technological solutions absolutely could work instead so long as we remove the alternative.
Gibraltar is of course an interesting case in terms of abrogating treaties precisely because the first attempt the Spanish made to steal it back recapture it was based on a claim that the British were breaking the treaty of Utrecht.
The cession which his Majesty [King Philip V] made precedently of that Place is become null, because of the infractions made in the conditions on which it was permitted that the English garrison should remain in the possession of Gibraltar; seeing that contrary to all the protestations made, they have not only extended their fortifications by exceeding the limits prescribed and stipulated, but what is more, contrary to the express and literal tenour of the Treaties, they receive and admit the Jews and Moors, in the same manner of the Spaniards, and other nations confounded and mixed, contrary to our holy religion; not to mention the frauds and continual contrabands which are carried on there to the prejudice of his majesty's Revenues.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
But Phillip...
The EU can only treat the UK as equal by denying the maths. 70 million people is less than 500 million. It would be profoundly unfair to the people living in EU states to pretend otherwise.
You are clearly chilled about the consequences of no deal. Great for you. But the pretence that the EU could ever treat a single country as equal to a union of 27 is for the faries.
You want a ballsy libertine pirate island. It's a valid view, albeit one I don't share. But argue for it honestly, rather than complaining when a larger unit uses the power they get by being a larger unit.
The UK is in dispute over two areas of contention.
Fish - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Norway. LPF - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Canada.
The EU is content to recognise Norway and Canada as sovereign equals on those issues and guess what, but they're both much smaller countries than the UK is economically.
So no I don't except this 500mn nonsense. It is claptrap pure and simple.
But you're the one telling us that all is fair in love, war, piracy and international trade. There are no real rules, only guidelines.
Rightly or wrongly, the EU have decided that they should demand more and give less to the UK than they did to Canada. (Fair enough really- proximity means the deal is worth more to us in cash terms than it is to Canada.) They have the sovereign ability to do that, and I'm not aware of any European politicians calling on Barnier to soften his stance.
You want to play at the big table, it's big boys rules (or lack of rules, as you have noted). Don't be shocked when others do the same to you as you plan to do to them.
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Personally, foreign travel for pleasure can go, but i think Carl Henigans suggestions on focusing on protecting the old, especially in care homes, is the real crucial strategy e.g. we need to move to a situation where we don't have any agency workers bouncing between homes.
On that video you (?) posted last night Heneghan suggested putting staff in a bubble around each care home and paying them handsomely. Seems like a wise idea.
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Personally, foreign travel for pleasure can go, but i think Carl Henigans suggestions on focusing on protecting the old, especially in care homes, is the real crucial strategy e.g. we need to move to a situation where we don't have any agency workers bouncing between homes.
On that video you (?) posted last night Heneghan suggested putting staff in a bubble around each care home and paying them handsomely. Seems like a wise idea.
Certainly don't disagree with it. We have seen how the likes of cricket have done this bubble idea.
Those in hospital will be covid tested Those in nursing homes, probably Those in the community, maybe.
Usually flu deaths are projected from excess mortality, and viral testing and serotyping at a representative panel of GP surgeries. Less than 5% of flu deaths get virologically tested normally.
I don’t know how the national flu survey is functioning at the moment, but clearly the system is not so reliable when there is another fatal respiratory virus about.
The February flu survey is how we know Covid-19 was not circulating in the community before the end of Feb, and how we identified some of the early community spread.
We're not issuing any influenza testing kits at the moment and haven't issued any oseltamivir in months
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Closing pubs could easily make things worse, driving social meetups into people's homes with less social distancing, and larger groups being impossible to police.
It’s hard to imagine there will be larger groups than schools out there, although the hoops I am having to jump through on H+S grounds are beyond crazy.
According to my son, social distancing is almost nonexistent at his school, things are pretty much normal.
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Closing pubs could easily make things worse, driving social meetups into people's homes with less social distancing, and larger groups being impossible to police.
It’s hard to imagine there will be larger groups than schools out there, although the hoops I am having to jump through on H+S grounds are beyond crazy.
According to my son, social distancing is almost nonexistent at his school, things are pretty much normal.
I think it varies widely from school to school. The problem is that the regulations were drawn up by people who do not understand schools, so they issued more or less impossible instructions and the question is, to what degree do you break them?
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Closing pubs could easily make things worse, driving social meetups into people's homes with less social distancing, and larger groups being impossible to police.
It’s hard to imagine there will be larger groups than schools out there, although the hoops I am having to jump through on H+S grounds are beyond crazy.
According to my son, social distancing is almost nonexistent at his school, things are pretty much normal.
You can't have social distancing at a secondary school, especially a coeducational one. The government should be rolling out rapid testing machines at every single secondary school and university in the country for daily testing. Using them at carehomes is such a massive waste of resources.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
But Phillip...
The EU can only treat the UK as equal by denying the maths. 70 million people is less than 500 million. It would be profoundly unfair to the people living in EU states to pretend otherwise.
You are clearly chilled about the consequences of no deal. Great for you. But the pretence that the EU could ever treat a single country as equal to a union of 27 is for the faries.
You want a ballsy libertine pirate island. It's a valid view, albeit one I don't share. But argue for it honestly, rather than complaining when a larger unit uses the power they get by being a larger unit.
The UK is in dispute over two areas of contention.
Fish - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Norway. LPF - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Canada.
The EU is content to recognise Norway and Canada as sovereign equals on those issues and guess what, but they're both much smaller countries than the UK is economically.
So no I don't except this 500mn nonsense. It is claptrap pure and simple.
But you're the one telling us that all is fair in love, war, piracy and international trade. There are no real rules, only guidelines.
Rightly or wrongly, the EU have decided that they should demand more and give less to the UK than they did to Canada. (Fair enough really- proximity means the deal is worth more to us in cash terms than it is to Canada.) They have the sovereign ability to do that, and I'm not aware of any European politicians calling on Barnier to soften his stance.
You want to play at the big table, it's big boys rules (or lack of rules, as you have noted). Don't be shocked when others do the same to you as you plan to do to them.
Absolutely the EU can play whatever games it wants to do. That's fair. And guess what it already is doing so.
All I'm saying is that we absolutely should be playing the same game too. That's the issue everyone here wants to "play by the rules" and "follow the law" and crap like that instead of playing the game properly.
It's like playing cricket where the opposition is bowling fast paced Bodyline bowling and we are sending out batsmen without a helmet, without a cup, without anything protective because we are playing as "gentlemen".
France is a sign of what is to come, time for the Government to do something
Like what? Another national lockdown?
We should surely shut down pubs, stop foreign travel, encourage WFH
Closing pubs could easily make things worse, driving social meetups into people's homes with less social distancing, and larger groups being impossible to police.
It’s hard to imagine there will be larger groups than schools out there, although the hoops I am having to jump through on H+S grounds are beyond crazy.
According to my son, social distancing is almost nonexistent at his school, things are pretty much normal.
You can't have social distancing at a secondary school, especially a coeducational one. The government should be rolling out rapid testing machines at every single secondary school and university in the country for daily testing. Using them at carehomes is such a massive waste of resources.
What was amazing is they thought it could be imposed in primary schools.
A mixed bag of State polling today. Certainly, some good news for Trump fans (or anti-Biden fans if you prefer) with Florida tied at 48 and Biden's lead in Pennsylvania down to just two.
@rcs1000 made an interesting point on the increase of registered Republicans in Florida and were I a betting man, I'd be on to Trump to hold Florida. The Susquehanna poll in PA is also worthy of comment.
It's a small sample - just 498 so the MoE is 4.3% making it a statistical dead heat. Biden's share is down four points since June while Trump's remain unchanged so the hapless Political Polls tweet is misleading.
The move is 2% away from Biden but not to Trump and with only 8% undecided it's looking very close at this moment.
The Rasmussen Ohio poll is very good for Biden - a 4% lead in a state Clinton lost by eight is a 6% swing so at the top end of what we've been seeing.
Rather like yesterday's California poll, today's Missouri poll shows the second party doing disproportionately well - the swing to Trump in California is matched by the swing to Biden in Missouri which again supports the view both candidates are doing disproportionately well in the other's strongholds.
So when do we expect the Spanish parliament to formally abrogate the Treaties of Utrecht and take back control of Gibraltar ?
The moment their military is able to get past ours.
Seems like the arument during the referendum that the EU was a force for peace is correct.
Not at all. The EU never secured peace. Our own military and the threat of mutual destruction did.
Not "secured peace", no. It is a "force for peace" though, surely? It is difficult to get into a war with other nations in the same club. Seems to me that with Brexit we are making war more likely, if only by very small degree.
Just out from Prof Spector: We are now confident that this rise is statistically significant and that we are definitely seeing a rise in COVID cases in the UK. This is backed up by our R value, which is currently 1.2 for England, Scotland and Wales and 1.3 for Northern Ireland.*
So when do we expect the Spanish parliament to formally abrogate the Treaties of Utrecht and take back control of Gibraltar ?
The moment their military is able to get past ours.
Seems like the arument during the referendum that the EU was a force for peace is correct.
Not at all. The EU never secured peace. Our own military and the threat of mutual destruction did.
Not "secured peace", no. It is a "force for peace" though, surely? It is difficult to get into a war with other nations in the same club. Seems to me that with Brexit we are making war more likely, if only by very small degree.
Even as a Remainer, I see this as a weak argument. The EU didn’t make or keep peace in Europe, NATO and the American nuclear umbrella did. Meanwhile being in the same club didn’t stop the American Civil War, the Taiping Rebellion, or numerous wars in Africa.
In fact, several of the EU’s actions, especially their rather tactless attempts to expand into the Ukraine and the Balkans, have arguably provoked wars.
I certainly think the types of local lockdowns that target household rather than commerce could be extended nationally or near nationally, if necessary.
So when do we expect the Spanish parliament to formally abrogate the Treaties of Utrecht and take back control of Gibraltar ?
The moment their military is able to get past ours.
Seems like the arument during the referendum that the EU was a force for peace is correct.
Not at all. The EU never secured peace. Our own military and the threat of mutual destruction did.
Not "secured peace", no. It is a "force for peace" though, surely? It is difficult to get into a war with other nations in the same club. Seems to me that with Brexit we are making war more likely, if only by very small degree.
No.
War is no more likely. The only reason people are talking about it is silly arguments like TSE going on about the Treaty of Utrecht as if that meant diddly squat.
I think the real problem is that so many people are losing the will to live that there is very little incentive to comply with anti-coronavirus guidance.
So when do we expect the Spanish parliament to formally abrogate the Treaties of Utrecht and take back control of Gibraltar ?
The moment their military is able to get past ours.
It probably can do that already, assuming we don't nuke Madrid, following decades of Tory defence cuts.
Oh for God’s sake: you’ll set @HYUFD off again! Wasn’t this his policy at one point?
I thought it was to nuke Edinburgh?
Edinburgh was tanks and Scottish infantry
HYUFD’s foreign policy primer:
• Turn Antrim into an Orangeman homeland
• Nuke Madrid
• Deploy a fleet of armed patrol boats on the River Tweed
Antrim has a Unionist majority, with every Antrim seat DUP, 98% of Gibraltarians voted to stay in the UK in a 2002 referendum and Scotland voted in a once in a generation 2014 referendum to stay in the UK.
So when do we expect the Spanish parliament to formally abrogate the Treaties of Utrecht and take back control of Gibraltar ?
The moment their military is able to get past ours.
It probably can do that already, assuming we don't nuke Madrid, following decades of Tory defence cuts.
Oh for God’s sake: you’ll set @HYUFD off again! Wasn’t this his policy at one point?
I thought it was to nuke Edinburgh?
Edinburgh was tanks and Scottish infantry
HYUFD’s foreign policy primer:
• Turn Antrim into an Orangeman homeland
• Nuke Madrid
• Deploy a fleet of armed patrol boats on the River Tweed
Antrim has a Unionist majority, with every Antrim seat DUP, 98% of Gibraltarians voted to stay in the UK in a 2002 referendum and Scotland voted in a once in a generation 2014 referendum to stay in the UK.
So just defending the will of the people
Friendly advice:
When a post suggests that you wish to nuke somebody, don’t pass it off as being ‘the will of the people.’
So when do we expect the Spanish parliament to formally abrogate the Treaties of Utrecht and take back control of Gibraltar ?
The moment their military is able to get past ours.
It probably can do that already, assuming we don't nuke Madrid, following decades of Tory defence cuts.
Oh for God’s sake: you’ll set @HYUFD off again! Wasn’t this his policy at one point?
I thought it was to nuke Edinburgh?
Edinburgh was tanks and Scottish infantry
HYUFD’s foreign policy primer:
• Turn Antrim into an Orangeman homeland
• Nuke Madrid
• Deploy a fleet of armed patrol boats on the River Tweed
Antrim has a Unionist majority, with every Antrim seat DUP, 98% of Gibraltarians voted to stay in the UK in a 2002 referendum and Scotland voted in a once in a generation 2014 referendum to stay in the UK.
So just defending the will of the people
Friendly advice:
When a post suggests that you wish to nuke somebody, don’t pass it off as being ‘the will of the people.’
Defending British citizens at all costs is the will of the people, including those in overseas territories and we have military defences for a reason to protect them from foreign invasion.
Though I highly doubt Spain is going to try and invade Gibraltar to test it, just as no nation is likely to invade the territory of the other nuclear powers like France, China, Russia and the USA
Comments
In France, the number of hospitalisations increased by 30% in three days, and admissions in intensive care by 48%.
The EU can only treat the UK as equal by denying the maths. 70 million people is less than 500 million. It would be profoundly unfair to the people living in EU states to pretend otherwise.
You are clearly chilled about the consequences of no deal. Great for you. But the pretence that the EU could ever treat a single country as equal to a union of 27 is for the faries.
You want a ballsy libertine pirate island. It's a valid view, albeit one I don't share. But argue for it honestly, rather than complaining when a larger unit uses the power they get by being a larger unit.
Otherwise there's a hard border within a few months. Probably put in place by us because of the massive gap in the UK's control of its own borders.
This isn't just a theoretical change by the UK with no consequences.
Law and order party, my arse - you look ridiculous
But the irony is, that’s a big part of the reason why we’re leaving them and here we doing exactly the same thing.
Fish - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Norway.
LPF - we seek to be treated as a sovereign country like Canada.
The EU is content to recognise Norway and Canada as sovereign equals on those issues and guess what, but they're both much smaller countries than the UK is economically.
So no I don't except this 500mn nonsense. It is claptrap pure and simple.
Unfortunately, it’s rapidly becoming clear that’s the only long-term solution. It always seemed likely, but now it’s pretty well certain.
Or a mutation to something less deadly I suppose, but that’s not something we can altogether rely on.
Those in hospital will be covid tested
Those in nursing homes, probably
Those in the community, maybe.
Usually flu deaths are projected from excess mortality, and viral testing and serotyping at a representative panel of GP surgeries. Less than 5% of flu deaths get virologically tested normally.
I don’t know how the national flu survey is functioning at the moment, but clearly the system is not so reliable when there is another fatal respiratory virus about.
The February flu survey is how we know Covid-19 was not circulating in the community before the end of Feb, and how we identified some of the early community spread.
With his view, he is now unable to talk about law and order matters ever again.
In his words "shit happens"
Neither side wins from no deal, if anything the UK is probably better equipped to handle it due to having a shorter decision making process and being nimbler in a changing market, the EU has 27 different agendas to handle on trade policy, the UK doesn't, it has one and after Boris falls due to no deal it will probably have a pretty clear policy as well.
The worst part about this assault on rule of law is that Boris jeopardising the only credible no deal economic policy of drawing in FDI with competitive tax rates and a friendly regulatory environment for business and investment. Foreign investors are currently taking fright at the UK's disregard for its own agreements.
Funny.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html
But in local lockdowns, pubs, foreign travel being stopped/reduced, WFH is surely still to be encouraged/mandated
Technological solutions absolutely could work instead so long as we remove the alternative.
steal it backrecapture it was based on a claim that the British were breaking the treaty of Utrecht.The cession which his Majesty [King Philip V] made precedently of that Place is become null, because of the infractions made in the conditions on which it was permitted that the English garrison should remain in the possession of Gibraltar; seeing that contrary to all the protestations made, they have not only extended their fortifications by exceeding the limits prescribed and stipulated, but what is more, contrary to the express and literal tenour of the Treaties, they receive and admit the Jews and Moors, in the same manner of the Spaniards, and other nations confounded and mixed, contrary to our holy religion; not to mention the frauds and continual contrabands which are carried on there to the prejudice of his majesty's Revenues.
Rightly or wrongly, the EU have decided that they should demand more and give less to the UK than they did to Canada. (Fair enough really- proximity means the deal is worth more to us in cash terms than it is to Canada.) They have the sovereign ability to do that, and I'm not aware of any European politicians calling on Barnier to soften his stance.
You want to play at the big table, it's big boys rules (or lack of rules, as you have noted). Don't be shocked when others do the same to you as you plan to do to them.
The Brexiteers are treated like the hop farmers of Alsace.
They are idolised and adored.
And why not?
They are living legends.
They are the men that came up with the noble Deal that makes Brexit the taste supreme.
Woman: Excuse me, are you a Brexiteer?
Me: Of course, oui!
There is cause for concern across Europe, but these comparisons to previous months are extremely misleading.
All I'm saying is that we absolutely should be playing the same game too. That's the issue everyone here wants to "play by the rules" and "follow the law" and crap like that instead of playing the game properly.
It's like playing cricket where the opposition is bowling fast paced Bodyline bowling and we are sending out batsmen without a helmet, without a cup, without anything protective because we are playing as "gentlemen".
I am inconsulable that you didn’t appreciate it.
A mixed bag of State polling today. Certainly, some good news for Trump fans (or anti-Biden fans if you prefer) with Florida tied at 48 and Biden's lead in Pennsylvania down to just two.
@rcs1000 made an interesting point on the increase of registered Republicans in Florida and were I a betting man, I'd be on to Trump to hold Florida. The Susquehanna poll in PA is also worthy of comment.
https://susquehannapolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Toplines-PAStatewide-FallOmnibus-Sept2020.pdf
It's a small sample - just 498 so the MoE is 4.3% making it a statistical dead heat. Biden's share is down four points since June while Trump's remain unchanged so the hapless Political Polls tweet is misleading.
The move is 2% away from Biden but not to Trump and with only 8% undecided it's looking very close at this moment.
The Rasmussen Ohio poll is very good for Biden - a 4% lead in a state Clinton lost by eight is a 6% swing so at the top end of what we've been seeing.
Rather like yesterday's California poll, today's Missouri poll shows the second party doing disproportionately well - the swing to Trump in California is matched by the swing to Biden in Missouri which again supports the view both candidates are doing disproportionately well in the other's strongholds.
In fact, several of the EU’s actions, especially their rather tactless attempts to expand into the Ukraine and the Balkans, have arguably provoked wars.
War is no more likely. The only reason people are talking about it is silly arguments like TSE going on about the Treaty of Utrecht as if that meant diddly squat.
*Yes, I know 1792 was revolutionary not Napoleonic.
• Turn Antrim into an Orangeman homeland
• Nuke Madrid
• Deploy a fleet of armed patrol boats on the River Tweed
The law doesn't matter anymore, this Government has made that clear
Heneghan seemed fairly sanguine yesterday.
So just defending the will of the people
When a post suggests that you wish to nuke somebody, don’t pass it off as being ‘the will of the people.’
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
See you later.
Though I highly doubt Spain is going to try and invade Gibraltar to test it, just as no nation is likely to invade the territory of the other nuclear powers like France, China, Russia and the USA