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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Johnson/Cummings “ignore the treaty” move sets bad pre

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 8 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Johnson/Cummings “ignore the treaty” move sets bad precedents

My son, Robert, posted this comment on the last thread which nearly sums up the dangers and I think deserves greater prominence. He wrote:

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 9,241
    First - until Philip decides to argue that he was.
  • eek said:

    First - until Philip decides to argue that he was.

    You're first if its "right" to say you are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    I fail to see why the plans are bad for Northern Ireland, they will ensure no border in the Irish Sea, appeasing the DUP, and still no hard border with the Republic of Ireland, appeasing the Nationalists.

    China has already trashed the Hong Kong Treaty anyway.

    A few more onerous conditions in a FTA with Japan when we have no FTA with Japan at present at all is not the end of the world.

    Boris has always said he is ready for No Deal if the EU will not compromise
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,380
    Can anyone point me in the direction of our plans to ignore/reinterpret the Withdrawal Agreement? I've been super busy at work. TY in advance.

  • eekeek Posts: 9,241
    FPT

    eek said:



    Government's break international law all the time. The Coalition government in 2013 deliberately and knowingly broke the law with the Finance Act that it passed. Tory and Lib Dem MPs happily voted that through knowing full well it broke the law because they considered it the right thing to do.

    The right thing to do is more important than "international law".

    I'm at a loss as to what you think the right thing to do is? It's clear that you don't care about the UK breaking International Law and ignoring a treaty that was the core part of Boris's manifesto..

    But what exactly does breaking the treaty actually fix? As you clearly understand it well enough to see why it is so important.
    As I understand it (and I might be wrong) the EU are intending/threatening to abuse the NI Protocol as a means to get control of what they call "state aid" by the back door, even if there is no agreement in the negotiations.

    That is an abuse and needs ruling out. It is entirely appropriate IMO to say no to that and if that means "tidying up" (breaking) the law to do so then so be it. We are a sovereign country that can set its own rules.
    This has nothing to do with the State Aid negotiations - it's to do with border controls see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54059946

    So once again you confirm that you are arguing over things you haven't the first clue about and haven't done even the most basic of searches to confirm that what you think is correct is actually correct.
  • Opinium not looking like an outlier anymore
  • HYUFD said:

    I fail to see why the plans are bad for Northern Ireland, they will ensure no border in the Irish Sea, appeasing the DUP, and still no hard border with the Republic of Ireland, appeasing the Nationalists.

    China has already trashed the Hong Kong Treaty anyway.

    A few more onerous conditions in a FTA with Japan when we have no FTA with Japan at present at all is not the end of the world.

    Boris has always said he is ready for No Deal if the EU will not compromise

    It's the first time Johnson has told us that the brilliant deal he signed and commended to the country is, in fact, is so bad the UK has to breach internaitonal law to break it.

  • eekeek Posts: 9,241

    Can anyone point me in the direction of our plans to ignore/reinterpret the Withdrawal Agreement? I've been super busy at work. TY in advance.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54059946 has an overview
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 16,372
    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.
  • It is interesting though, as Starmer really hasn't converted many voters directly and still a Hung Parliament is predicted. Of course boundary changes might have an impact.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,779
    edited September 8
    Excellent idea - an adaptation of "Get Brexit Done". As I mentioned below, Johnson is about to lose a surprised tranche of voters who thought Brexit and the deal was "done", and they wouldn't hear any more about it 'till exit day - starting with and including reluctant Tory remainers who accepted the deal only grudgingly, but still hadn't warmed to Starmer compared to Corbyn quite enough to cross over to him yet.
  • Starmer has rather intelligently decided to go on the case of getting a deal, not reopening Leave vs Remain
  • eek said:

    FPT

    eek said:



    Government's break international law all the time. The Coalition government in 2013 deliberately and knowingly broke the law with the Finance Act that it passed. Tory and Lib Dem MPs happily voted that through knowing full well it broke the law because they considered it the right thing to do.

    The right thing to do is more important than "international law".

    I'm at a loss as to what you think the right thing to do is? It's clear that you don't care about the UK breaking International Law and ignoring a treaty that was the core part of Boris's manifesto..

    But what exactly does breaking the treaty actually fix? As you clearly understand it well enough to see why it is so important.
    As I understand it (and I might be wrong) the EU are intending/threatening to abuse the NI Protocol as a means to get control of what they call "state aid" by the back door, even if there is no agreement in the negotiations.

    That is an abuse and needs ruling out. It is entirely appropriate IMO to say no to that and if that means "tidying up" (breaking) the law to do so then so be it. We are a sovereign country that can set its own rules.
    This has nothing to do with the State Aid negotiations - it's to do with border controls see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54059946

    So once again you confirm that you are arguing over things you haven't the first clue about and haven't done even the most basic of searches to confirm that what you think is correct is actually correct.
    But if you're "right", you're "right" and so you can do literally anything you want, because you're "right".

    Its a form of mania.


  • Cummings will be very unhappy Starmer has not fallen into his trap
  • "I don't think the issues that are outstanding can't be resolved, so let's get a deal, move on, and focus on what the public are concerned about which is defeating this pandemic."

    He welcomed the PM's October deadline and said he would not seek to extend it, were he in Mr Johnson's position.

    Sir Keir, who was previously a passionate Remain supporter, told Political Correspondent Paul Brand that he is not calling for a new EU referendum.

    "I don't think there's any need to extend the trade talks, there's no talks of extending them," he said, adding: "We've left the EU, there's no question of a second referendum...the Leave/Remain argument is over."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 8



    Cummings will be very unhappy Starmer has not fallen into his trap
    Maybe, though I can see some Remainers shifting from Labour back to the LDs given Davey has said he still wants the closest possible relationship with the EU even if he respects the Brexit result and Starmer's statement does not commit to rejoining the EEA, it would allow for even the most basic of FTAs with the EU but not No Deal.

    Starmer's statement might win over a few anti No Deal Tory voters though
  • HYUFD said:



    Cummings will be very unhappy Starmer has not fallen into his trap
    Maybe, though I can see some Remainers shifting from Labour back to the LDs given Davey has said he still wants the closest possible relationship with the EU even if he respects the Brexit result and Starmer's statement does not rule out a No Deal Brexit
    It does, Starmer said the PM promised to get a deal and in his shoes, Starmer would get one.

    He ruled out extending the transition period.

    As for the LDs, they're still irrelevant right now
  • eekeek Posts: 9,241



    Cummings will be very unhappy Starmer has not fallen into his trap
    Starmer wasn't going to fall into the trap but in return he's created another problem for Boris, he needs to deliver a deal...
  • MaxPB said:

    This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.

    Come over to Labour mate :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,099
    Judging from the latest new case data, I am safer out of the country.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,361

    MaxPB said:

    This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.

    Come over to Labour mate :)
    No.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    edited September 8
    That the government stated openly that the plan is to flout international law "in a specific and limited way" in order to pursue the national interest at the potential expense of Brussels (last bit not said but implied and will no doubt be briefed) imo tells us what is really going on here.

    It's yet another piece of tedious "We are Millwall aka the People's government and we don't care" jingo confected quite deliberately to wind up effete Remainy liberals and get their own side, the Salt of the Earth Leavers. pumped up and loving "Boris" and the Brexit all over again. Perhaps Cummings & Co were worried that passions were cooling. They don't want that obviously. If that happens, more people might notice other things, none of which speak well of the government they elected so recently.

    Yep. So this is what I think is happening. PR and nothing else. They're feeding the fish. It won't change the Brexit outcome by one iota. No Deal is still a Not Happening event. There will still be major late compromise from us that ensures continuing close alignment with the EU and no border in Ireland (thus one in the Irish Sea) after 1 Jan 2021. But the Gang decided they needed a fresh dose of the Old Familiar right now. It's tedious for the rest of us but they know it works.

    So, given that, I'm not playing. I'm not outraged. I'm not even interested.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673
  • eekeek Posts: 9,241
    MaxPB said:

    This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.

    Boris and this Government need to understand that what makes Britain so trustworthy that people allow it to look after their money is because what is written in law is what happens.

    If that's gone you may as well head to Frankfurt....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 8
    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.

    Come over to Labour mate :)
    No.

    Oh well, we're still friends.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,403
    kinabalu said:

    That the government stated openly that the plan is to flout international law "in a specific and limited way" in order to pursue the national interest at the potential expense of Brussels (last bit not said but implied and will no doubt be briefed) imo tells us what is really going on here.

    It's yet another piece of tedious "We are Millwall aka the People's government and we don't care" jingo confected quite deliberately to wind up effete Remainy liberals and get their own side, the Salt of the Earth Leavers. pumped up and loving "Boris" and the Brexit all over again. Perhaps Cummings & Co were worried that passions were cooling. They don't want that obviously. If that happens, more people might notice other things, none of which speak well of the government they elected so recently.

    Yep. So this is what I think is happening. PR and nothing else. They're feeding the fish. It won't change the Brexit outcome by one iota. No Deal is still a Not Happening event. There will still be major late compromise from us that ensures continuing close alignment with the EU and no border in Ireland (thus one in the Irish Sea) after 1 Jan 2021. But the Gang decided they needed a fresh dose of the Old Familiar right now. It's tedious for the rest of us but they know it works.

    So, given that, I'm not playing. I'm not outraged. I'm not even interested.

    And we have a winner! :wink:
  • eek said:



    Cummings will be very unhappy Starmer has not fallen into his trap
    Starmer wasn't going to fall into the trap but in return he's created another problem for Boris, he needs to deliver a deal...
    Johnson said he would get a deal, time to deliver.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,779
    edited September 8
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.

    Boris and this Government need to understand that what makes Britain so trustworthy that people allow it to look after their money is because what is written in law is what happens.

    If that's gone you may as well head to Frankfurt....
    Yup. London is a legally consistent and predictable safe for sometimes illegal money.
  • And now we come to the central reason why Starmer is better than Corbyn (a man I supported), he simply has far better political instincts.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,361
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.

    Boris and this Government need to understand that what makes Britain so trustworthy that people allow it to look after their money is because what is written in law is what happens.

    If that's gone you may as well head to Frankfurt....
    Exactly right, though I'd hazard a guess at Zurich as it's not under ECJ jurisdiction.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    MrEd said:
    Is this weighted to correctly match voter registration? Sex? Or age?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    Rasmussen has Biden +4 in Ohio. I'll take that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
    Fixating on the state polls - rather than on the way Trump was closing the national gap - was the mistake the Dems made in 2016.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,779
    edited September 8
    Starmer is not about to fall into any elephant traps. Here he's mentioning breaking international law, but only after, and as part of "not getting Brexit done". A heroic "defender of english common law against head-in-the-clouds international human rights lawyer" schtick, that Cummings may have so lovingly worked on, negated at a stroke.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,241
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.

    Boris and this Government need to understand that what makes Britain so trustworthy that people allow it to look after their money is because what is written in law is what happens.

    If that's gone you may as well head to Frankfurt....
    Exactly right, though I'd hazard a guess at Zurich as it's not under ECJ jurisdiction.
    I only picked Frankfurt due to the high quality of regulation in Germany (there may be sarcasm in this sentence).
  • eekeek Posts: 9,241
    kinabalu said:

    That the government stated openly that the plan is to flout international law "in a specific and limited way" in order to pursue the national interest at the potential expense of Brussels (last bit not said but implied and will no doubt be briefed) imo tells us what is really going on here.

    It's yet another piece of tedious "We are Millwall aka the People's government and we don't care" jingo confected quite deliberately to wind up effete Remainy liberals and get their own side, the Salt of the Earth Leavers. pumped up and loving "Boris" and the Brexit all over again. Perhaps Cummings & Co were worried that passions were cooling. They don't want that obviously. If that happens, more people might notice other things, none of which speak well of the government they elected so recently.

    Yep. So this is what I think is happening. PR and nothing else. They're feeding the fish. It won't change the Brexit outcome by one iota. No Deal is still a Not Happening event. There will still be major late compromise from us that ensures continuing close alignment with the EU and no border in Ireland (thus one in the Irish Sea) after 1 Jan 2021. But the Gang decided they needed a fresh dose of the Old Familiar right now. It's tedious for the rest of us but they know it works.

    So, given that, I'm not playing. I'm not outraged. I'm not even interested.

    The actual issue isn't that important - it's the impact on our global reputation that is important - and in 1 sentence this afternoon a Government minister destroyed it.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,602
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
    Fixating on the state polls - rather than on the way Trump was closing the national gap - was the mistake the Dems made in 2016.
    This article isn't about the Dems fixating on state polls. It's about a state poll.
  • At some point, even this government of incompetent, half-witted, former public schoolboys is surely going to realsie that Keir Starmer is not Jeremy Corbyn.
  • 30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced?
    The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 8
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
    Fixating on the state polls - rather than on the way Trump was closing the national gap - was the mistake the Dems made in 2016.
    The Dems did not pay enough attention to the state polls actually, if they had Hillary might have spent more time in the MidWest (even the average polls showed her losing Iowa and Ohio to Trump which Obama won in 2012) instead of fundraising in California which merely boosted her national popular vote total not her EC votes
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,001
    Many polls have Biden ahead in Ohio, yet almost everyone expects Trump to win the state. How can that be explained?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224

    30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced?
    The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.

    Shocking?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,920
    edited September 8
    It is not breaking the law that is unusual; governments and bits of the state apparatus do it all the time. If they didn't no-one would ever win a judicial review. The departure from civilized norms is actually to say that you are doing so. Even countries with an absolute contempt for the very idea of the rule of law always deny that they are breaking it.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,241

    At some point, even this government of incompetent, half-witted, former public schoolboys is surely going to realsie that Keir Starmer is not Jeremy Corbyn.

    You would think so but I really can't see Boris changing. Boris will still arrive at PMQs every week woefully and embarrassingly unprepared
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    Andy_JS said:

    Many polls have Biden ahead in Ohio, yet almost everyone expects Trump to win the state. How can that be explained?

    If Trump loses Ohio he will already have lost the election anyway, however if Biden wins a landslide he will certainly win Ohio so depends how close you think the election is still
  • Starmer should get up tomorrow and do his best Blair.

    "So when the PM said this was a great deal, did he mean it?"
    "So when the PM said he would get an oven ready deal, with no more dither and delay, did he mean it?"

    "He can't even say it."

    "WEAK, WEAK, WEAK."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    MrEd said:
    That's my one and only hedge bet. Trump to cling on to Florida. I can just about see that.
  • eek said:

    At some point, even this government of incompetent, half-witted, former public schoolboys is surely going to realsie that Keir Starmer is not Jeremy Corbyn.

    You would think so but I really can't see Boris changing. Boris will still arrive at PMQs every week woefully and embarrassingly unprepared
    I don't think they have, the IRA line seems to have fallen flat.

    Perhaps the truth is, they are not tactical experts, they were just less rubbish than Corbyn?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,001
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Many polls have Biden ahead in Ohio, yet almost everyone expects Trump to win the state. How can that be explained?

    If Trump loses Ohio he will already have lost the election anyway, however if Biden wins a landslide he will certainly win Ohio so depends how close you think the election is still
    Yes although my point was more that a lot of people don't seem to trust the polls in Ohio and if they don't trust them there maybe they don't trust them in other states.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 84,159
    edited September 8
    FPT but more relevant here

    Fuck this lawbreaking government.

    Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.

    One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.

    But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.

    Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.

    and

    Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,569
    Andy_JS said:

    Many polls have Biden ahead in Ohio, yet almost everyone expects Trump to win the state. How can that be explained?

    FiveThirtyEight have Trump as a 57% favourite to win Ohio, which seems reasonable given the polls. Anyone putting OH down as a certainty for Trump is wrong.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,602

    At some point, even this government of incompetent, half-witted, former public schoolboys is surely going to realsie that Keir Starmer is not Jeremy Corbyn.

    You are being quite generous assuming that, if the current government do ever realise who the new opposition is, they have the nous to adapt their strategy.
  • Who was it who was 'winning the arguments' again?
  • Who was it who was 'winning the arguments' again?
    I don't know, didn't Boris Johnson say his deal was a great deal and you supported it until, oddly, Johnson changed his mind?


  • The Tory Party are incompetent, that much is obvious.
  • Frankly, bring Cameron and the Coalition Government back
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,569
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
    The entire poll is based on 500 voters so it's silly to try and draw any conclusions from a subsample. Even the article says "Those [Hispanic] numbers — are based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error "
  • 30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced?
    The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.

    Shocking?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
    Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.

    It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,363
    Re: header

    I think this is an awful example of RCS's writings. Just plain wrong, and that's rather rare.
  • Yet again, we knew the cases would rise, we had to simply look across the Channel.

    Yet again, the Tories did nothing.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,569
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
    Fixating on the state polls - rather than on the way Trump was closing the national gap - was the mistake the Dems made in 2016.
    Yes. If Biden ends up winning the popular vote by 7-8 points then he is virtually guaranteed ti have won. If the margin goes down to about 2-3 then it's much more uncertain.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980

    kinabalu said:

    That the government stated openly that the plan is to flout international law "in a specific and limited way" in order to pursue the national interest at the potential expense of Brussels (last bit not said but implied and will no doubt be briefed) imo tells us what is really going on here.

    It's yet another piece of tedious "We are Millwall aka the People's government and we don't care" jingo confected quite deliberately to wind up effete Remainy liberals and get their own side, the Salt of the Earth Leavers. pumped up and loving "Boris" and the Brexit all over again. Perhaps Cummings & Co were worried that passions were cooling. They don't want that obviously. If that happens, more people might notice other things, none of which speak well of the government they elected so recently.

    Yep. So this is what I think is happening. PR and nothing else. They're feeding the fish. It won't change the Brexit outcome by one iota. No Deal is still a Not Happening event. There will still be major late compromise from us that ensures continuing close alignment with the EU and no border in Ireland (thus one in the Irish Sea) after 1 Jan 2021. But the Gang decided they needed a fresh dose of the Old Familiar right now. It's tedious for the rest of us but they know it works.

    So, given that, I'm not playing. I'm not outraged. I'm not even interested.

    And we have a winner! :wink:
    Yes, well. And I mean it. I'm not spending any more of my time discussing this "outrage". Not falling for it. Same reason I won't call Johnson by his brand name except ironically and with malice.

    Let's see if they have the balls to No Deal or Bare Minimum Deal. That's the crux of the matter. I say they don't.
  • FPT but more relevant here

    Fuck this lawbreaking government.

    Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.

    One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.

    But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.

    Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.

    and

    Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.

    Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:
    That's my one and only hedge bet. Trump to cling on to Florida. I can just about see that.
    Mainly down to Cuban Americans

    'But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.

    “Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.'

    https://outline.com/2TnybA
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
    The entire poll is based on 500 voters so it's silly to try and draw any conclusions from a subsample. Even the article says "Those [Hispanic] numbers — are based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error "
    Well, I have always said I have a problem with the quality of American polls.

    However, criticising a poll of 500 voters in Miami-Dade when people seem willing to accept without question the findings of a 1,000-2,000 national opinion poll across the US seems slightly odd.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,241

    FPT but more relevant here

    Fuck this lawbreaking government.

    Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.

    One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.

    But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.

    Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.

    and

    Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.

    Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
    :lol:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,361

    FPT but more relevant here

    Fuck this lawbreaking government.

    Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.

    One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.

    But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.

    Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.

    and

    Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.

    This is the kind of stuff that will lead to a donor strike and Boris getting canned.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,397
    Good summary/

    And FTP
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of treaties, countries do in fact abrogate them relatively frequently. The consequences of such actions are rarely too severe (in general), although it will clearly have a more significant impact on the level of trust of the person you broke the treaty with. What is slightly unusual about this (if it happens), is that usually treaties are abrogated after an election and a change in leadership.

    I can't think of any other occasion where a treaty is abrogated by the same person who signed it, in the same year it was signed, and almost immediately after winning an election on the basis of signing the treaty.

    On the subject of British law, there are lots of treaties which place other courts above British law, and which require British courts to pay attention to the deliberations of those bodies. Those range from ISDS Tribunals created in trade deals, to the International Telecom Union or International Postal Union's courts. (Which rule on very, very narrow and technical measures, but which we are treaty bound to follow.)

    All that being said, the consequences of us walking away from the Withdrawal Agreement, via bringing in a law that is incompatible with it, would probably not cause too many long term problems for the UK. People recognise that the circumstances of the UK leaving the EU are unique.

    But it does raise the question: if you plan on No Deal, and you plan on abrogating your treaty obligations, why didn't the UK simply leave the EU by repealing the European Union (Communities) Act? It would have been far simpler.

    Your first point might mislead, I think. Treaties can be technically breached after falling into disuse or countries can notify parties that they will cancel all or part of the treaty in the expectation that the other party will go along with it. It is extraordinary to deliberately breach a live treaty and ignore remedies that already exist within it.

    Consequences will be major I believe. I don't think the circumstances of the UK leaving the EU will alter people's perceptions.

    Your last point is a good one. The reasons for the UK to go along with a Withdrawal Agreement are twofold: (1) It's a clean break to avoid arguments about residual obligations (2) it's a pay to play for a future relationship. Without it, the EU won't agree anything with the UK ever. However if you genuinely think that's a workable long term existence (which is neither Australian nor an arrangement) then maybe you don't need a Withdrawal Agreement.
    But what about the border in the island of Ireland?
    Yeah, it's a strange thing that the European Union should have a greater sense of responsibility for Northern Ireland, which isn't part of its territory, than the government of the so-called United KIngdom whose territory it is.

    And NI is a responsibility for the EU. It complicates things for them too.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,779
    edited September 8

    Starmer should get up tomorrow and do his best Blair.

    "So when the PM said this was a great deal, did he mean it?"
    "So when the PM said he would get an oven ready deal, with no more dither and delay, did he mean it?"

    "He can't even say it."

    "WEAK, WEAK, WEAK."

    I rarely agree that Starmer should be more directly Blairite, but in this case you're absolutely right. This is the moment to marry the growing narrative of incompetence, weakness, and governmental confusion and drift, with "not getting Brexit done", and go in hard on how they both go together ; and the signs are that Starmer already gets this.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,049

    FPT but more relevant here

    Fuck this lawbreaking government.

    Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.

    One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.

    But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.

    Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.

    and

    Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.

    Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
    Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,647

    And now we come to the central reason why Starmer is better than Corbyn (a man I supported), he simply has far better political instincts.

    There aren't enough pixels on the Internet to list all the reasons Starmer is better than Jezza.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224

    30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced?
    The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.

    Shocking?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
    Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.

    It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
    Hospitals are empty, Covid was on the death certificate of 1.1% of deaths w/e 28/8. Do you think we should lock down the whole country again with the untold disaster that that would bring to people lives? Today and everyday around 30 men have died of Prostrate cancer.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:
    Is this weighted to correctly match voter registration? Sex? Or age?
    I can't find their cross samples. The article describes the pollster as a Democrat strategist.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,647

    30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced?
    The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.

    Shocking?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
    Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.

    It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
    Hospitals are empty, Covid was on the death certificate of 1.1% of deaths w/e 28/8. Do you think we should lock down the whole country again with the untold disaster that that would bring to people lives? Today and everyday around 30 men have died of Prostrate cancer.
    How many have died of flu in the week that 30 have passed from covid?

  • felixfelix Posts: 10,881



    The Tory Party are incompetent, that much is obvious.
    Presumably you mean like the socialists in Spain and the Macronites in France since their figures are both as bad or worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 8
    FF43 said:

    Good summary/

    And FTP

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of treaties, countries do in fact abrogate them relatively frequently. The consequences of such actions are rarely too severe (in general), although it will clearly have a more significant impact on the level of trust of the person you broke the treaty with. What is slightly unusual about this (if it happens), is that usually treaties are abrogated after an election and a change in leadership.

    I can't think of any other occasion where a treaty is abrogated by the same person who signed it, in the same year it was signed, and almost immediately after winning an election on the basis of signing the treaty.

    On the subject of British law, there are lots of treaties which place other courts above British law, and which require British courts to pay attention to the deliberations of those bodies. Those range from ISDS Tribunals created in trade deals, to the International Telecom Union or International Postal Union's courts. (Which rule on very, very narrow and technical measures, but which we are treaty bound to follow.)

    All that being said, the consequences of us walking away from the Withdrawal Agreement, via bringing in a law that is incompatible with it, would probably not cause too many long term problems for the UK. People recognise that the circumstances of the UK leaving the EU are unique.

    But it does raise the question: if you plan on No Deal, and you plan on abrogating your treaty obligations, why didn't the UK simply leave the EU by repealing the European Union (Communities) Act? It would have been far simpler.

    Your first point might mislead, I think. Treaties can be technically breached after falling into disuse or countries can notify parties that they will cancel all or part of the treaty in the expectation that the other party will go along with it. It is extraordinary to deliberately breach a live treaty and ignore remedies that already exist within it.

    Consequences will be major I believe. I don't think the circumstances of the UK leaving the EU will alter people's perceptions.

    Your last point is a good one. The reasons for the UK to go along with a Withdrawal Agreement are twofold: (1) It's a clean break to avoid arguments about residual obligations (2) it's a pay to play for a future relationship. Without it, the EU won't agree anything with the UK ever. However if you genuinely think that's a workable long term existence (which is neither Australian nor an arrangement) then maybe you don't need a Withdrawal Agreement.
    But what about the border in the island of Ireland?
    Yeah, it's a strange thing that the European Union should have a greater sense of responsibility for Northern Ireland, which isn't part of its territory, than the government of the so-called United KIngdom whose territory it is.

    And NI is a responsibility for the EU. It complicates things for them too.

    No, the EU just wants to make Northern Ireland an EU colony as its civil servants were on camera saying during the negotiations and to create a border in the Irish Sea.

    The UK however wants no hard border within Ireland and no border in the Irish Sea either
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 13,980
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    That the government stated openly that the plan is to flout international law "in a specific and limited way" in order to pursue the national interest at the potential expense of Brussels (last bit not said but implied and will no doubt be briefed) imo tells us what is really going on here.

    It's yet another piece of tedious "We are Millwall aka the People's government and we don't care" jingo confected quite deliberately to wind up effete Remainy liberals and get their own side, the Salt of the Earth Leavers. pumped up and loving "Boris" and the Brexit all over again. Perhaps Cummings & Co were worried that passions were cooling. They don't want that obviously. If that happens, more people might notice other things, none of which speak well of the government they elected so recently.

    Yep. So this is what I think is happening. PR and nothing else. They're feeding the fish. It won't change the Brexit outcome by one iota. No Deal is still a Not Happening event. There will still be major late compromise from us that ensures continuing close alignment with the EU and no border in Ireland (thus one in the Irish Sea) after 1 Jan 2021. But the Gang decided they needed a fresh dose of the Old Familiar right now. It's tedious for the rest of us but they know it works.

    So, given that, I'm not playing. I'm not outraged. I'm not even interested.

    The actual issue isn't that important - it's the impact on our global reputation that is important - and in 1 sentence this afternoon a Government minister destroyed it.
    It's bad but I think that is overstating things - and I do sense a deliberately confected row.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,995

    Starmer is not about to fall into any elephant traps. Here he's mentioning breaking international law, but only after, and as part of "not getting Brexit done". A heroic "defender of english common law against head-in-the-clouds international human rights lawyer" schtick, that Cummings may have so lovingly worked on, negated at a stroke.
    I wonder if all this was indeed just a ruse to trick Sir Keir into painting himself into a corner. Apparently Boris was incandescent after last week's PMQs, so perhaps he's been hatching some dastardly plot to embarrass his nemesis as a counter-punch. Looks like Sir Keir has swerved it though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,397
    edited September 8



    Cummings will be very unhappy Starmer has not fallen into his trap
    Johnson won the 2019 election with a confluence of those that want more Brexit and those who want Brexit to go away. The "Get Brexit Done" slogan married the two factions. Starmer is now pitching for the "Make Brexit go away" faction.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,241
    edited September 8

    FPT but more relevant here

    Fuck this lawbreaking government.

    Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.

    One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.

    But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.

    Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.

    and

    Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.

    Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
    Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
    This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.

    Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 2,237
    edited September 8
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Rasmussen with a 4 point lead for Biden in Ohio

    Lol.

    Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
    And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
    The entire poll is based on 500 voters so it's silly to try and draw any conclusions from a subsample. Even the article says "Those [Hispanic] numbers — are based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error "
    Well, I have always said I have a problem with the quality of American polls.

    However, criticising a poll of 500 voters in Miami-Dade when people seem willing to accept without question the findings of a 1,000-2,000 national opinion poll across the US seems slightly odd.
    In statistical terms, the size of the population relative to the sample isn't particularly important. So a poll of 800 people in the fairly small country of Belgium is less likely to be accurate than one of 900 in the relatively large country of the UK.

    This isn't true at the extremes (a poll of 800 people in a ward of 1000 people is likely to be very accurate assuming the methodology is sound) but only at those far extremes - a sample of a couple of thousand in the US (population 328 million) is actually miles more likely to be accurate than one of 500 in Miami Dade (population 2.7 million) assuming both have sound methodologies.

    EDIT: Note also that the methodology of the sub-sample is also less likely to be sound in itself - the pollster is, understandably, likely to try to get the demographics right across the whole poll, not within each sub-sample as that's be a nightmare.
  • 30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced?
    The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.

    Shocking?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
    Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.

    It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
    Hospitals are empty, Covid was on the death certificate of 1.1% of deaths w/e 28/8. Do you think we should lock down the whole country again with the untold disaster that that would bring to people lives? Today and everyday around 30 men have died of Prostrate cancer.
    I've heard that there are Amazonian tribes who don't distinguish between the present and the future and have no concept of tense. I had no idea that such people also walk among us in Western societies though!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,659
    MaxPB said:

    FPT but more relevant here

    Fuck this lawbreaking government.

    Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.

    One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.

    But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.

    Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.

    and

    Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.

    This is the kind of stuff that will lead to a donor strike and Boris getting canned.
    Could this be the first time I've 'liked' a MaxPB post ;-)
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,224

    30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced?
    The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.

    Shocking?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
    Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.

    It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
    Hospitals are empty, Covid was on the death certificate of 1.1% of deaths w/e 28/8. Do you think we should lock down the whole country again with the untold disaster that that would bring to people lives? Today and everyday around 30 men have died of Prostrate cancer.
    How many have died of flu in the week that 30 have passed from covid?

    Based on the ONS figures around 900
This discussion has been closed.