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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Johnson/Cummings “ignore the treaty” move sets bad pre
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Johnson/Cummings “ignore the treaty” move sets bad precedents
My son, Robert, posted this comment on the last thread which nearly sums up the dangers and I think deserves greater prominence. He wrote:
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1303363679270961152?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1303346661121503234?s=20
Tories 310
Labour 252
SNP 58
LDs 7
Plaid 4
Greens 1
NI 18
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=38&LIB=8&Brexit=1&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=17.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=53.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1303356183508668419?s=20
China has already trashed the Hong Kong Treaty anyway.
A few more onerous conditions in a FTA with Japan when we have no FTA with Japan at present at all is not the end of the world.
Boris has always said he is ready for No Deal if the EU will not compromise
Keir makes his ideas known
So once again you confirm that you are arguing over things you haven't the first clue about and haven't done even the most basic of searches to confirm that what you think is correct is actually correct.
Lol.
Its a form of mania.
Cummings will be very unhappy Starmer has not fallen into his trap
He welcomed the PM's October deadline and said he would not seek to extend it, were he in Mr Johnson's position.
Sir Keir, who was previously a passionate Remain supporter, told Political Correspondent Paul Brand that he is not calling for a new EU referendum.
"I don't think there's any need to extend the trade talks, there's no talks of extending them," he said, adding: "We've left the EU, there's no question of a second referendum...the Leave/Remain argument is over."
Starmer's statement might win over a few anti No Deal Tory voters though
He ruled out extending the transition period.
As for the LDs, they're still irrelevant right now
It's yet another piece of tedious "We are Millwall aka the People's government and we don't care" jingo confected quite deliberately to wind up effete Remainy liberals and get their own side, the Salt of the Earth Leavers. pumped up and loving "Boris" and the Brexit all over again. Perhaps Cummings & Co were worried that passions were cooling. They don't want that obviously. If that happens, more people might notice other things, none of which speak well of the government they elected so recently.
Yep. So this is what I think is happening. PR and nothing else. They're feeding the fish. It won't change the Brexit outcome by one iota. No Deal is still a Not Happening event. There will still be major late compromise from us that ensures continuing close alignment with the EU and no border in Ireland (thus one in the Irish Sea) after 1 Jan 2021. But the Gang decided they needed a fresh dose of the Old Familiar right now. It's tedious for the rest of us but they know it works.
So, given that, I'm not playing. I'm not outraged. I'm not even interested.
https://outline.com/2TnybA
If that's gone you may as well head to Frankfurt....
Lib Dems won't campaign for rejoin either
The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1303367393822081024
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
"So when the PM said this was a great deal, did he mean it?"
"So when the PM said he would get an oven ready deal, with no more dither and delay, did he mean it?"
"He can't even say it."
"WEAK, WEAK, WEAK."
Perhaps the truth is, they are not tactical experts, they were just less rubbish than Corbyn?
Fuck this lawbreaking government.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
The Tory Party are incompetent, that much is obvious.
It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
I think this is an awful example of RCS's writings. Just plain wrong, and that's rather rare.
Yet again, the Tories did nothing.
Let's see if they have the balls to No Deal or Bare Minimum Deal. That's the crux of the matter. I say they don't.
'But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.
“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.'
https://outline.com/2TnybA
However, criticising a poll of 500 voters in Miami-Dade when people seem willing to accept without question the findings of a 1,000-2,000 national opinion poll across the US seems slightly odd.
And FTP Yeah, it's a strange thing that the European Union should have a greater sense of responsibility for Northern Ireland, which isn't part of its territory, than the government of the so-called United KIngdom whose territory it is.
And NI is a responsibility for the EU. It complicates things for them too.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1303358880706187265
The UK however wants no hard border within Ireland and no border in the Irish Sea either
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
This isn't true at the extremes (a poll of 800 people in a ward of 1000 people is likely to be very accurate assuming the methodology is sound) but only at those far extremes - a sample of a couple of thousand in the US (population 328 million) is actually miles more likely to be accurate than one of 500 in Miami Dade (population 2.7 million) assuming both have sound methodologies.
EDIT: Note also that the methodology of the sub-sample is also less likely to be sound in itself - the pollster is, understandably, likely to try to get the demographics right across the whole poll, not within each sub-sample as that's be a nightmare.