Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
The entire poll is based on 500 voters so it's silly to try and draw any conclusions from a subsample. Even the article says "Those [Hispanic] numbers — are based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error "
Well, I have always said I have a problem with the quality of American polls.
However, criticising a poll of 500 voters in Miami-Dade when people seem willing to accept without question the findings of a 1,000-2,000 national opinion poll across the US seems slightly odd.
I certainly agree taking a single poll in isolation is foolish - particularly polls where the sample size is so small. Much more sensible to look at the aggregated metrics.
But it's particularly dangerous to view small subsamples of polls in isolation - you may have heard the infamous Scottish subsamples of PB folklore. In this case, approx 25% of the population in Florida is Hispanic, so if we assume the subsample contains the same proportion of voters (125) then this implies a MOE of 8.7%. (!)
This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.
Come over to Labour mate
Not whilst they still have RLB and are beholden to their union paymasters.
That's my one and only hedge bet. Trump to cling on to Florida. I can just about see that.
Mainly down to Cuban Americans
'But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.
“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.'
One possible problem for Biden is that the Hispanic agenda has gained almost no traction recently because all the focus has been on BLM. The Hispanic and Black communities are not natural bedfellows (in places like New Mexico, there have been clashes between BLM supporters and the Hispanic population overthe statues issues). And Trump has not been pushing his 2016 rhetoric.
Therefore, it's entirely possible that there is a gradual erosion in the Hispanic lead the Democrats have. This wouldn't be the first poll to show their advantage amongst Hispanics narrowing.
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
The entire poll is based on 500 voters so it's silly to try and draw any conclusions from a subsample. Even the article says "Those [Hispanic] numbers — are based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error "
Well, I have always said I have a problem with the quality of American polls.
However, criticising a poll of 500 voters in Miami-Dade when people seem willing to accept without question the findings of a 1,000-2,000 national opinion poll across the US seems slightly odd.
I certainly agree taking a single poll in isolation is foolish - particularly polls where the sample size is so small. Much more sensible to look at the aggregated metrics.
But it's particularly dangerous to view small subsamples of polls in isolation - you may have heard the infamous Scottish subsamples of PB folklore. In this case, approx 25% of the population in Florida is Hispanic, so if we assume the subsample contains the same proportion of voters (125) then this implies a MOE of 8.7%. (!)
Oh I agree with you there. I think there is a general fixation on the polls.
One thing I think is making it harder this time for the parties is the social restrictions and lack of campaigns / door to door visits. That makes it harder for campaigns to pick up what is going on the ground, what people are happy with etc, which then gets fed back up. Replying to @rcs1000 if Clinton had heeded the feedback from the Unions in the Midwest, it is entirely possible she would be President.
This feels like something Boris might fall over. The City reaction (and therefore donor reaction) to this has been extremely poor. Boris is jeopardising the City by dismantling rule of law in the UK. We're on the brink of destroying a trillion dollar industry, the only one the UK has for a some bullshit about NI that few people care about.
Come over to Labour mate
Not whilst they still have RLB and are beholden to their union paymasters.
Starmer is not about to fall into any elephant traps. Here he's mentioning breaking international law, but only after, and as part of "not getting Brexit done". A heroic "defender of english common law against head-in-the-clouds international human rights lawyer" schtick, that Cummings may have so lovingly worked on, negated at a stroke.
I wonder if all this was indeed just a ruse to trick Sir Keir into painting himself into a corner. Apparently Boris was incandescent after last week's PMQs, so perhaps he's been hatching some dastardly plot to embarrass his nemesis as a counter-punch. Looks like Sir Keir has swerved it though.
Destroying the reputation of the City of London (for that is what today has really done, even if Boris backs down later) to embarrass the leader of the opposition seems a bit too much for even Cummings..
My MP, Suella, is the Attorney General. At public meetings she has made clear that she is 'not afaid' of leaving without a deal - in a way that indicates that's what she would really like to do. She's also against 'cultural marxism', whatever that is.
That's my one and only hedge bet. Trump to cling on to Florida. I can just about see that.
Mainly down to Cuban Americans
'But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.
“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.'
One possible problem for Biden is that the Hispanic agenda has gained almost no traction recently because all the focus has been on BLM. The Hispanic and Black communities are not natural bedfellows (in places like New Mexico, there have been clashes between BLM supporters and the Hispanic population overthe statues issues). And Trump has not been pushing his 2016 rhetoric.
Therefore, it's entirely possible that there is a gradual erosion in the Hispanic lead the Democrats have. This wouldn't be the first poll to show their advantage amongst Hispanics narrowing.
Perhaps but that is not reflected in other states with big Hispanic states like Arizona and New Mexico, Cuban Americans in Florida have always leaned more GOP due to opposition to Castro
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
That's my one and only hedge bet. Trump to cling on to Florida. I can just about see that.
Mainly down to Cuban Americans
'But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.
“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.'
My MP, Suella, is the Attorney General. At public meetings she has made clear that she is 'not afaid' of leaving without a deal - in a way that indicates that's what she would really like to do. She's also against 'cultural marxism', whatever that is.
Two random words cobbled together to cover everything she hates...
That's my one and only hedge bet. Trump to cling on to Florida. I can just about see that.
Mainly down to Cuban Americans
'But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.
“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.'
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
I think the point HYFUD is making is that these are basically states Biden needs to win. So if he has a narrow swing state 2% lead on a 7% national lead then he can't afford any movement back to Trump - 4% national lead won't do it for him.
I am a bit more sceptical about the idea Biden is piling up votes in California to a greater extent than Clinton. I think it's more likely that the state polls slightly overstate Trump and the national ones slightly overstate Biden based on different methodologies and (often) different pollsters. But I see the argument.
That's my one and only hedge bet. Trump to cling on to Florida. I can just about see that.
Mainly down to Cuban Americans
'But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error — are driven by Trump’s increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.
“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.'
Yet again, we knew the cases would rise, we had to simply look across the Channel.
Yet again, the Tories did nothing.
Oh but they did. A week and a bit ago they were offering a tenner bung to crowd into a restaurant. Last week they were exhorting folk onto trains and buses into offices. Even if neither employer or employee found it necessary. And implying anyone who didn't was an unpatriotic shirker and economic saboteur. Last week they were insisting schools were safe and casting aspersions on parents and teachers. This week there are a few closing. And for months encouraging folk to fly off and come back without testing and to quarantine if you felt like it. I could go on. But I reckon they've done quite a lot.
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
I think the point HYFUD is making is that these are basically states Biden needs to win. So if he has a narrow swing state 2% lead on a 7% national lead then he can't afford any movement back to Trump - 4% national lead won't do it for him.
I am a bit more sceptical about the idea Biden is piling up votes in California to a greater extent than Clinton. I think it's more likely that the state polls slightly overstate Trump and the national ones slightly overstate Biden based on different methodologies and (often) different pollsters. But I see the argument.
Do you think it is the massive corruption scandal engulfing the GOP there? The Kasich endorsementcof Biden? Or maybe Trump demanding a boycott of Goodyear Tyres (Headquarters Akron, Ohio)?
I just can't put my finger on why Republicans are in trouble there.
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
I think the point HYFUD is making is that these are basically states Biden needs to win. So if he has a narrow swing state 2% lead on a 7% national lead then he can't afford any movement back to Trump - 4% national lead won't do it for him.
I am a bit more sceptical about the idea Biden is piling up votes in California to a greater extent than Clinton. I think it's more likely that the state polls slightly overstate Trump and the national ones slightly overstate Biden based on different methodologies and (often) different pollsters. But I see the argument.
On piling up votes in California, are electricity blackout that popular?
maybe Caroline Lucas should explicitly put them in the Green Party manifesto
30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced? The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.
Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.
It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
Hospitals are empty, Covid was on the death certificate of 1.1% of deaths w/e 28/8. Do you think we should lock down the whole country again with the untold disaster that that would bring to people lives? Today and everyday around 30 men have died of Prostrate cancer.
How many have died of flu in the week that 30 have passed from covid?
Based on the ONS figures around 900
Though as flu is rarely confirmed by viral swab, can we be sure? Even if covid negative, there would be false negatives (around 30% of covid patients) and obviously excess deaths couldn't distinguish the two.
Yet again, we knew the cases would rise, we had to simply look across the Channel.
Yet again, the Tories did nothing.
Oh but they did. A week and a bit ago they were offering a tenner bung to crowd into a restaurant. Last week they were exhorting folk onto trains and buses into offices. Even if neither employer or employee found it necessary. And implying anyone who didn't was an unpatriotic shirker and economic saboteur. Last week they were insisting schools were safe and casting aspersions on parents and teachers. This week there are a few closing. And for months encouraging folk to fly off and come back without testing and to quarantine if you felt like it. I could go on. But I reckon they've done quite a lot.
Operation "Save Pret" working a dream.
One didn't have to be Mystic Meg to see where these economic stimulus ideas could lead.
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
I think the point HYFUD is making is that these are basically states Biden needs to win. So if he has a narrow swing state 2% lead on a 7% national lead then he can't afford any movement back to Trump - 4% national lead won't do it for him.
I am a bit more sceptical about the idea Biden is piling up votes in California to a greater extent than Clinton. I think it's more likely that the state polls slightly overstate Trump and the national ones slightly overstate Biden based on different methodologies and (often) different pollsters. But I see the argument.
On the subject of treaties, countries do in fact abrogate them relatively frequently. The consequences of such actions are rarely too severe (in general), although it will clearly have a more significant impact on the level of trust of the person you broke the treaty with. What is slightly unusual about this (if it happens), is that usually treaties are abrogated after an election and a change in leadership.
I can't think of any other occasion where a treaty is abrogated by the same person who signed it, in the same year it was signed, and almost immediately after winning an election on the basis of signing the treaty.
On the subject of British law, there are lots of treaties which place other courts above British law, and which require British courts to pay attention to the deliberations of those bodies. Those range from ISDS Tribunals created in trade deals, to the International Telecom Union or International Postal Union's courts. (Which rule on very, very narrow and technical measures, but which we are treaty bound to follow.)
All that being said, the consequences of us walking away from the Withdrawal Agreement, via bringing in a law that is incompatible with it, would probably not cause too many long term problems for the UK. People recognise that the circumstances of the UK leaving the EU are unique.
But it does raise the question: if you plan on No Deal, and you plan on abrogating your treaty obligations, why didn't the UK simply leave the EU by repealing the European Union (Communities) Act? It would have been far simpler.
Your first point might mislead, I think. Treaties can be technically breached after falling into disuse or countries can notify parties that they will cancel all or part of the treaty in the expectation that the other party will go along with it. It is extraordinary to deliberately breach a live treaty and ignore remedies that already exist within it.
Consequences will be major I believe. I don't think the circumstances of the UK leaving the EU will alter people's perceptions.
Your last point is a good one. The reasons for the UK to go along with a Withdrawal Agreement are twofold: (1) It's a clean break to avoid arguments about residual obligations (2) it's a pay to play for a future relationship. Without it, the EU won't agree anything with the UK ever. However if you genuinely think that's a workable long term existence (which is neither Australian nor an arrangement) then maybe you don't need a Withdrawal Agreement.
But what about the border in the island of Ireland?
Yeah, it's a strange thing that the European Union should have a greater sense of responsibility for Northern Ireland, which isn't part of its territory, than the government of the so-called United KIngdom whose territory it is.
And NI is a responsibility for the EU. It complicates things for them too.
No, the EU just wants to make Northern Ireland an EU colony as its civil servants were on camera saying during the negotiations and to create a border in the Irish Sea.
The UK however wants no hard border within Ireland and no border in the Irish Sea either
Perhaps they shouldn't have ditched the May Deal which guaranteed that then...
Do you think it is the massive corruption scandal engulfing the GOP there? The Kasich endorsementcof Biden? Or maybe Trump demanding a boycott of Goodyear Tyres (Headquarters Akron, Ohio)?
I just can't put my finger on why Republicans are in trouble there.
One thing that I have seen a number of times - a scandal/dramatic moment happens. The polls don't move immediately.
The Twittersphere would have us believe the entire country wants us to spend our weekends climbing trees to protest climate change whilst eating quinoa and kale.
My MP, Suella, is the Attorney General. At public meetings she has made clear that she is 'not afaid' of leaving without a deal - in a way that indicates that's what she would really like to do. She's also against 'cultural marxism', whatever that is.
Aren't we all? If Suella DeVille and Robert Buckland nod this one through, there will be ramifications regarding international law for generations.
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
The clue is surely in the billing: battleground states
I think the point HYFUD is making is that these are basically states Biden needs to win. So if he has a narrow swing state 2% lead on a 7% national lead then he can't afford any movement back to Trump - 4% national lead won't do it for him.
I am a bit more sceptical about the idea Biden is piling up votes in California to a greater extent than Clinton. I think it's more likely that the state polls slightly overstate Trump and the national ones slightly overstate Biden based on different methodologies and (often) different pollsters. But I see the argument.
He doesn’t need to win PA or Ohio.
He does if he loses Florida and Michigan and Minnesota or Wisconsin
He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
30 UK Covid-19 deaths today is really shocking news. Could we be about to see the numbers really spike over the next few days and the possibility of a widespread further lockdown being introduced? The Government simply doesn't have a clue as regards how to deal with this problem.
Yes. You can see from that graph that 30 is the highest number of reported deaths for about 6 weeks and much higher then the tallies of the last couple of weeks. Last Tuesday, 5 deaths were reported, and only 12 were reported on the Tuesday prior to that. Alongside the rapidly increasing case numbers, it is an obvious indication that the second wave is starting.
It would be good if we could actually take some early and decisive action, but I suppose we'll just dither and deny like the first time until mounting death counts again force emergency action :-(
Hospitals are empty, Covid was on the death certificate of 1.1% of deaths w/e 28/8. Do you think we should lock down the whole country again with the untold disaster that that would bring to people lives? Today and everyday around 30 men have died of Prostrate cancer.
How many have died of flu in the week that 30 have passed from covid?
Based on the ONS figures around 900
Though as flu is rarely confirmed by viral swab, can we be sure? Even if covid negative, there would be false negatives (around 30% of covid patients) and obviously excess deaths couldn't distinguish the two.
In other words, were these 900 really flu?
Is anyone dying of "flu" in the UK *not* being tested, at the moment?
Wonder what the pub at the top of my parents' street will be like this weekend? 100 metres inside Wigan from the Bolton border. First one on the A road.
He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
I thought that (and have long forecast a Trump victory). Yet when I did my map, it had Biden on 270 exactly without any of OH, FL or PA.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
My MP, Suella, is the Attorney General. At public meetings she has made clear that she is 'not afaid' of leaving without a deal - in a way that indicates that's what she would really like to do. She's also against 'cultural marxism', whatever that is.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
I thought that (and have long forecast a Trump victory). Yet when I did my map, it had Biden on 270 exactly without any of OH, FL or PA.
As I say, there are routes to victory that don't include Pennsylvania and which aren't incredible. It's just that if my crystal ball told be Biden misses the second closest state, and the one where he was born, I'd be pretty pessimistic (albeit not utterly hopeless) about it.
On Ohio, I can't honestly see Biden winning Ohio (8% Trump margin in 2016) but NOT Pennsylvania (under 1%) as they are demographically similar. That's less so for Florida as it was much closer in 2016 and the demographics differ. So Florida might replace Pennsylvania in a winning path, but Ohio is unlikely to do so.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
No, but we should probably listen to them when they talk about the law, and to doctors when they talk about health, and to structural engineers when they talk about bridges. If we want to maintain the rule of law, stay in reasonable health, and not fall into rivers anyway.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
No, but we should probably listen to them when they talk about the law, and to doctors when they talk about health, and to structural engineers when they talk about bridges. If we want to maintain the rule of law, stay in reasonable health, and not fall into rivers anyway.
He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
I thought that (and have long forecast a Trump victory). Yet when I did my map, it had Biden on 270 exactly without any of OH, FL or PA.
As I say, there are routes to victory that don't include Pennsylvania and which aren't incredible. It's just that if my crystal ball told be Biden misses the second closest state, and the one where he was born, I'd be pretty pessimistic (albeit not utterly hopeless) about it.
On Ohio, I can't honestly see Biden winning Ohio (8% Trump margin in 2016) but NOT Pennsylvania (under 1%) as they are demographically similar. That's less so for Florida as it was much closer in 2016 and the demographics differ. So Florida might replace Pennsylvania in a winning path, but Ohio is unlikely to do so.
To win without Ohio or Florida or Pennsylvania Biden basically needs to win Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska 02
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
No, international agreements are always a compromise, and we need to uphold the compromise parts as much as the bits we like. Trust in the UK to uphold international agreements and the rule of law is taking a huge dent right now, it wouldn't be an issue if we had already ratified and codified 60 trade deals and signed up to the TPP, but we haven't. Now those trade deals become much more stringent and the enforcement mechanisms and break penalties become harsher. It's also a disaster for the City, we've got a meeting about it tomorrow morning, even I've been told to attend because we need to get a strategy together for reassuring clients that their money isn't at risk from state interference when the questions start to roll in. Our trump card for keeping the City has always been rule of law, the UK is one of very few countries that lives and dies by rule of law, now the government are undoing all of that for absolutely no gain.
Also, what evidence do you have that the EU aren't honouring their side of the bargain?
Oh dear, the biggest Tory attack shut down, what will Cummings cry about now?
Yes. We say to them Tories. This is boring. You said you'd get Brexit done so get it done. By the end of the year and not a moment longer. Do or Die for fucks sake. Grow a pair, get it over with, deal or no deal. Sort it Mr Johnson. Own it Mr Johnson. Then we can talk about more important things.
As Starmer points out correctly in his interview with Rigby, we are in fact now outside the EU.
Indeed we are. So the UK Parliament needs to decide UK laws, which it's going to do tomorrow.
Yep, which way parliamentarians head through the lobbies won't affect whether we're in or out the EU but it will have consequences for our future relationship.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
To be fair, Boris did not promise he had an oven at all.
He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
We won't be waking up on the day after the election because we won't have gone to sleep.
Anyway - big Biden spread bet on supremacy with smaller hedge on the fixed odds Trump to hold Florida. That is me atm.
Though only a 2% lead forecast for Biden in Pennsylvania by Susquehanna, both battleground state polls are still significantly narrower leads for Biden than his 7% national average poll lead
And this on Florida - which posted below - saying that Trump is doing much better than 2016 in Miami-Dade https://outline.com/2TnybA
The entire poll is based on 500 voters so it's silly to try and draw any conclusions from a subsample. Even the article says "Those [Hispanic] numbers — are based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error "
Well, I have always said I have a problem with the quality of American polls.
However, criticising a poll of 500 voters in Miami-Dade when people seem willing to accept without question the findings of a 1,000-2,000 national opinion poll across the US seems slightly odd.
No, not odd at all.
We should all know, for example, that approximately 55% of voters in Presidential elections are women. We should all know that around 28% of voters are Registered Republicans. We should all know that the young are less likely to vote than the old.
If we have a poll without those crosstabs, then we have no idea whether its weightings in any way match the likely weightings of the electorate. Trusting a poll without knowing how it is constructed is taking an awful lot on faith.
We also know how accurate - in aggregate - national polls have been in the past.
They have been judged, analysed, pored over, compared, and rated.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
To be fair, Boris did not promise he had an oven at all.
And right now he appears to be wearing the oven gloves as some sort of strange headgear, rather than using them to put anything in any ovens. People look on in anxiety as they try to fathom whether all the screws are still in place.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania.
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
We won't be waking up on the day after the election because we won't have gone to sleep.
Anyway - big Biden spread bet on supremacy with smaller hedge on the fixed odds Trump to hold Florida. That is me atm.
It could be a few days before the results are in. Will Fox News hold off calling the states before the postal votes have been tallied - if not it could get violent.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
To be fair, Boris did not promise he had an oven at all.
And right now he appears to be wearing the oven gloves as some sort of strange headgear, rather than using them to put anything in any ovens. People look on in anxiety as they try to fathom whether all the screws are still in place.
"Just at the time when we need to preheat the national oven, the Islington Remainer opposite wants us to bow down to international law instead."
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
One would have thought so. However, the government and a large portion of the population think otherwise.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
One would have thought so. However, the government and a large portion of the population think otherwise.
Really?
Not about the deal, this claim that the government thinks...
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
No, international agreements are always a compromise, and we need to uphold the compromise parts as much as the bits we like. Trust in the UK to uphold international agreements and the rule of law is taking a huge dent right now, it wouldn't be an issue if we had already ratified and codified 60 trade deals and signed up to the TPP, but we haven't. Now those trade deals become much more stringent and the enforcement mechanisms and break penalties become harsher. It's also a disaster for the City, we've got a meeting about it tomorrow morning, even I've been told to attend because we need to get a strategy together for reassuring clients that their money isn't at risk from state interference when the questions start to roll in. Our trump card for keeping the City has always been rule of law, the UK is one of very few countries that lives and dies by rule of law, now the government are undoing all of that for absolutely no gain.
Also, what evidence do you have that the EU aren't honouring their side of the bargain?
The thing is, that whether Philip liked it or not, the NI Protocol was specifically included in the Withdrawal Agreement to govern a situation where a future trade agreement wasn't agreed by the end of the Transition Period that might render it redundant. To argue that "the EU aren't honouring their commitments" in relation to any such trade deal is completely irrelevant, whether it is true or not. To argue that the lack of a trade deal is a justification for revisiting the NI Protocol of the WA is completely disingenuous, since arrangements under a no deal scenario were its entire purpose. And let's not forget that all the advantages to the UK of the Withdrawal agreement (time to adjust to leave the EU through a transition period, that we have artificially shortened for no benefit) have already been banked. And, of course, almost entirely wasted by all accounts - both in negotiating future arrangements, and preparing for a world in which we have none.
And utterly ridiculous when THIS GOVERNMENT WAS THE ONE THAT SIGNED THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT! IN THIS PARLIAMENT! Literally 6 months ago. For them of all people to argue that "the deal doesn't make sense" is their responsibility. Nobody else's.
Still at least we are falling back on WTO terms. That series of international treaties that is our only protection against exploitation from unscrupulous trade competitors... How's Liam Fox's candidacy to lead it coming along at the moment???
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
Tony Blair would now be labelled as using racist language these days....as for describing Traoré as having pace and power....the bloke who looks like a bodybuilder and as Darren Campbell said after working with him one of the fastest individuals he had coached.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Fuck them for shitting on this country’s reputation.
One of the reasons this country attracts so much business is our strong rule of law and an independent judiciary that can and does overrule the government when it breaks the law/acts ultra vires.
But today’s announcement and the plans to castrate the judiciary is going to screw this country so much.
Well done Boris and the Brexiteers.
and
Also good luck to my friends in the UK Debt Management Office who have to sell UK debt with buyers now having to worry if the UK Government will retroactively change the terms.
Tory backbench MPs with any conscience at all over what's right and what's wrong will surely vote down this crooked legislation, hopefully leading to Boris' immediate resignation as PM.
Maybe this is an elaborately choreographed way to end up requesting some kind of further transition period. "We wanted to leave with No Deal, but yet again parliament wouldn't let us."
This Government was elected on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement (as negotiated by Boris) and Boris's Oven Ready Deal.
Starmers only question tomorrow needs to be what is delaying the Oven Ready deal being signed
I'm sure Boris is on top of the details......
He'll probably waffle on about lawyers and not taking any lectures from them.
Should we just let lawyers run the world?
We signed up to an agreement, we are now expected to uphold it. It can't get more simple than that.
If it's in our interest to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
The UK looking after the UK involves sorting out a deal with our largest trading partner.
Eventually. When they're ready to treat us as an equal sovereign neighbour and not a subject in their sphere of influence.
Comments
But it's particularly dangerous to view small subsamples of polls in isolation - you may have heard the infamous Scottish subsamples of PB folklore. In this case, approx 25% of the population in Florida is Hispanic, so if we assume the subsample contains the same proportion of voters (125) then this implies a MOE of 8.7%. (!)
Therefore, it's entirely possible that there is a gradual erosion in the Hispanic lead the Democrats have. This wouldn't be the first poll to show their advantage amongst Hispanics narrowing.
Absolutely awful.
At least we have PPE for this wave.
One thing I think is making it harder this time for the parties is the social restrictions and lack of campaigns / door to door visits. That makes it harder for campaigns to pick up what is going on the ground, what people are happy with etc, which then gets fed back up. Replying to @rcs1000 if Clinton had heeded the feedback from the Unions in the Midwest, it is entirely possible she would be President.
At public meetings she has made clear that she is 'not afaid' of leaving without a deal - in a way that indicates that's what she would really like to do.
She's also against 'cultural marxism', whatever that is.
Cometh the man, cometh the Keir!
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1303363679270961152?s=20
Though both key swing state polls have the Biden lead still well below his 7% average national lead
But OTOH, felons. Somebody said the other day - Sandpit? - that they now have the vote in Florida and that's an guaranteed extra 1m for Biden on 3/11.
Because felons vote Democrat of course. If you don't vote Democrat you aint a felon.
Johnson is definitely off his game, I am sure Corona has done this
Good
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/17/892105780/supreme-court-deals-major-blow-to-ex-felons-right-to-vote-in-florida
I am a bit more sceptical about the idea Biden is piling up votes in California to a greater extent than Clinton. I think it's more likely that the state polls slightly overstate Trump and the national ones slightly overstate Biden based on different methodologies and (often) different pollsters. But I see the argument.
I think a lot of Puerto Ricans moved over after the hurricane and not Trump fans.
You voted for it
A week and a bit ago they were offering a tenner bung to crowd into a restaurant.
Last week they were exhorting folk onto trains and buses into offices. Even if neither employer or employee found it necessary.
And implying anyone who didn't was an unpatriotic shirker and economic saboteur.
Last week they were insisting schools were safe and casting aspersions on parents and teachers. This week there are a few closing.
And for months encouraging folk to fly off and come back without testing and to quarantine if you felt like it.
I could go on.
But I reckon they've done quite a lot.
I just can't put my finger on why Republicans are in trouble there.
maybe Caroline Lucas should explicitly put them in the Green Party manifesto
In other words, were these 900 really flu?
One didn't have to be Mystic Meg to see where these economic stimulus ideas could lead.
Starmer is doing well, and perhaps very well.
Boris is doing fine too though, and all of the things that Boris is actually doing help him (even when wrong). As did you.
The result of the election is a collective consensus. You may of course not have voted for the winner.
Then a week of 2 later...
The military thing?
Lol, these people live in her head rent free
If you continue to produce dead cats folk will expect a dead cat.
Oh dear, the biggest Tory attack shut down, what will Cummings cry about now?
England hospital
But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump state in 2016 and has 20 delegates which is a big prize to miss. Biden also has a good claim to being local as he was born in Scranton. Put it this way - if we wake up the day after the election and Biden hasn't won Pennsylvania he probably (although I accept not definitely) isn't President.
A mixed bag this evening.
100 metres inside Wigan from the Bolton border.
First one on the A road.
On Ohio, I can't honestly see Biden winning Ohio (8% Trump margin in 2016) but NOT Pennsylvania (under 1%) as they are demographically similar. That's less so for Florida as it was much closer in 2016 and the demographics differ. So Florida might replace Pennsylvania in a winning path, but Ohio is unlikely to do so.
If it's not we should if need be renounce it and move on.
The EU aren't honouring their commitments in good faith so I don't care. Maybe next year we can revisit things but the UK government needs to look after the UK, the EU isn't going to do so.
https://unherd.com/2020/09/hypocrisy-is-not-the-worst-thing-on-earth/
Also, what evidence do you have that the EU aren't honouring their side of the bargain?
Anyway - big Biden spread bet on supremacy with smaller hedge on the fixed odds Trump to hold Florida. That is me atm.
We should all know, for example, that approximately 55% of voters in Presidential elections are women. We should all know that around 28% of voters are Registered Republicans. We should all know that the young are less likely to vote than the old.
If we have a poll without those crosstabs, then we have no idea whether its weightings in any way match the likely weightings of the electorate. Trusting a poll without knowing how it is constructed is taking an awful lot on faith.
We also know how accurate - in aggregate - national polls have been in the past.
They have been judged, analysed, pored over, compared, and rated.
So, yes, I do trust the national polls more.
Will Fox News hold off calling the states before the postal votes have been tallied - if not it could get violent.
But that does beg the question of why the silly fucker signed such a deal in the first place.
However, the government and a large portion of the population think otherwise.
Not about the deal, this claim that the government thinks...
And utterly ridiculous when THIS GOVERNMENT WAS THE ONE THAT SIGNED THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT! IN THIS PARLIAMENT! Literally 6 months ago. For them of all people to argue that "the deal doesn't make sense" is their responsibility. Nobody else's.
Still at least we are falling back on WTO terms. That series of international treaties that is our only protection against exploitation from unscrupulous trade competitors... How's Liam Fox's candidacy to lead it coming along at the moment???
https://twitter.com/DehennaDavison/status/1184876113698447361
https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/1303354908826128384
Tony Blair would now be labelled as using racist language these days....as for describing Traoré as having pace and power....the bloke who looks like a bodybuilder and as Darren Campbell said after working with him one of the fastest individuals he had coached.
😁
Extremely worrying.