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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.2% chance

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    This is one of the things that I hate about the Tories, why do we need to get back to the office. I am happy WFH, I thought they believed in free will but they want to tell me where to work.

    It's not difficult to understand why people think this is all just a ruse to protect their mates who own property.

    It's an interesting problem. The people who can work from home tend to be well-off with good jobs. Those who can't, like the barista working in the starbucks by your office, aren't. WFH nets the well-off even more money by saving on expenses, while puts others out of a job due to lost trade. It wouldn't have been much of an issue if it was gradual, but it is a sudden change in behaviour which is going to have quite significant consequences for the economy.
    That's for smarter people than I to work out but being a good little Tory, I am going to use my liberty and work from home. I'm alright Jack, no such thing as society, etc.

    Funny how there's a society when the Tories are in danger
    Isn't it more funny that you don't seem concerned about it?
    No I'm a Tory now, we don't care about anyone
    I suspect this is driven by the fact it's being pushed by a Tory government. If Labour had said it, raising the points I raised earlier, would you still have the same attitude?
    I'm not quite sure you're getting the sarcasm
    No, I get it. Just trying to get you to engage on the actual point.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New header
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    MaxPB said:

    The second wave looks absolutely terrible in Spain and France. France specifically seems like it is going to have a period like March/April again.

    Is this just in case numbers, or is it translating to deaths too now?
    Just looked at the worldometers (for what its worth). Yes a small increase in deaths in Spain, not yet in France. I hope that this is a casedemic (i.e. lots of cases being found in asymptomatic, or mildly ill people). We have no idea really how many actual cases there were in France and Spain (or indeed the UK) in March and April.
    The Spanish outbreak is predominately asymptotic (60%) and under 40, the numbers hospitalized are low enough, in most communities, to not stress the system (I posted some Covid % Hospital occupancy rates a few days ago) and transfers to icu proportionally low as well. The problem is that it is occasionally getting into care homes causing deaths. Sticking my neck out I think we are reaching the peak of this wave in the country overall but with hot spots still occurring. Of course it could all go titus aribus when the schools go back and there is not great confidence that it won’t despite the planning and precautions.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    Woooooooooooow imagine we sell shedloads of cheese to Japan
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:
    This should bring a smile to all you United fans.



    Sorry not sorry.
    Outrageous. The man is Innocent until proven Guilty again.
    I would tentatively suggest that a trial where none of the accused were present or represented and none of the evidence was challenged is not particularly good evidence of anything.
    The Greek police are arseholes when I've seen them in action, which was in Athens 2007.

    If weren't for the fact there were so many British police out there in an official capacity it would have been much worse.

    They were indiscriminately striking people, including young children, then trying to arrest stricken people for being a nuisance is truly special.

    My 'favourite' was the Greek rozzer who grabbed official match tickets from Liverpool fans, hit them, then said they were trying to get in without tickets.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015

    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1298942340036526080

    Tories upset more houses might be built

    Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.

    Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
    No chance of voting Tory.
    Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?

    We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?

    The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
    I won't be voting Tory.

    The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.

    To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
    And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?

    The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
    The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.

    The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.

    The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.

    Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.

    They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.

    And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
    The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
    Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.

    I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.

    Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
    I never said the Tories are popular with the young, I said they are addressing the concerns of the young and will win them around in the future. Today's young is the future old generations. The idea that today's young, when they are older and wiser, will still magically be voting for Labour is a myth propagated by every generation.

    You won't remain young forever. There are five years between every General Election normally, that is a pretty long time. Your under thirties of today could be mid-thirties by the next General Election. The mid-thirties of today could be in their forties next time - and so on. And they will change accordingly and there'll be a new generation voting for the first time.

    I'm a Millenial, just, whose first vote was for Blair but unless there's an early election this last election was my last election in my thirties. By 2024 I'll be in my forties. The generation of Millenials who voted first time around for Blair - are now starting to vote more for the Tories than for Labour. I don't know how old exactly you are but I'm guessing you're a decade younger - so in a decade's time, or two General Elections from now, you'll see a lot more of your own cohort considering their voting differently. You may or may not be one of them. Probably as there will be a swing to Labour inevitably you'll be less likely to change your mind prior to Labour being in office but after Labour have been in office it will be your Generation that swings hardest to kick them out of it.

    As for the issues that you chose that represent what you dislike - "Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis." - Labour were behind all of those. It was Labour's overspending that caused austerity. It was Labour's messing around with the EU Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty that led to Brexit. It was Labour that introduced Tuition Fees. It was Labour that created the housing crisis and under Labour home ownership rates for the young collapsed.
    To blame Labour when they haven't been in Government for 10 years is one of your problems Philip.

    You could have resolved these issues, you chose not to. Not my problem.
    Thats a silly attitude. Governments blame the last lot, whether they are labour or tory. It is political behaviour not partisan, both do it.

    Its certaibkg less effective as time goes on and relevant whether the party in power fails to deal with a challenge left over, but it is relevant to note when issues started.

    If you think the next labour government wont be blaming brexit and the tories in 2029 despite it by then being their responsibility to fix (assuming a win in 2024) you'll be in for a shock.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Knowing quite a few people from Eton, I can say - anecdotally - they are all exclusively arseholes.

    ISTM that simply to say you are an OE would qualify the person in your book as being an arsehole and hence forgive me if I don't take that assessment with any insight.
    I am sure there are lots of nice people at Eton. Just the ones I know are arseholes.
    If you know "quite a few" perhaps reviewing your social circles might be appropriate?
    Oh I don't see them much anymore, for that reason.

    I stick with people that are pleasant to be around :)
    Such as those on PB.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:
    This should bring a smile to all you United fans.



    Sorry not sorry.
    Outrageous. The man is Innocent until proven Guilty again.
    I would tentatively suggest that a trial where none of the accused were present or represented and none of the evidence was challenged is not particularly good evidence of anything.
    They interviewed the defence team on the courtroom steps.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015

    The Tories don't seem to understand that Labour is quite popular in London, I don't think shouting "Corbynism is destroying London" is going to work

    I dont follow the logic. They're attempting to reduce its popularity by convincing people it is not working. That might not work, I doubt it will, but by your logic they shoukdnt criticise labour in london at all and labour shouldnt criticise the tories in their heartlands
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:
    This should bring a smile to all you United fans.



    Sorry not sorry.
    Outrageous. The man is Innocent until proven Guilty again.
    I would tentatively suggest that a trial where none of the accused were present or represented and none of the evidence was challenged is not particularly good evidence of anything.
    The Greek police are arseholes when I've seen them in action, which was in Athens 2007.

    If weren't for the fact there were so many British police out there in an official capacity it would have been much worse.

    They were indiscriminately striking people, including young children, then trying to arrest stricken people for being a nuisance is truly special.

    My 'favourite' was the Greek rozzer who grabbed official match tickets from Liverpool fans, hit them, then said they were trying to get in without tickets.
    Well that was clearly correct once he had the tickets.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,424
    HYUFD said:

    Sitting around and going "Labour did this" is why the Tories don't win over people under 30. Labour lost power in 2010, you've been in power for 10 years and a lot of us think you've made the country worse.

    The Tories almost never win people under 30, the last time they won 25 to 34s was 2010 and they still lost 18-24s, they have not won 18 to 24s since 1983
    It is very striking how strongly the age divide has grown over recent elections. For example, although this random bloke on the internet was doubtless too busy knitting and baking to update his graph with the result from GE2019, you can still see how the age divide has exploded since 2010.

    https://timothylikeszebras.wordpress.com/2019/11/26/the-old-people-are-coming/
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The second wave looks absolutely terrible in Spain and France. France specifically seems like it is going to have a period like March/April again.

    Is this just in case numbers, or is it translating to deaths too now?
    In Spain it looks like the death rate is picking up, I can't imagine France will be far behind with that level of new cases per day, even if they are milder or asymptomatic it won't be long until it spreads into vulnerable groups as it did in the US after a prolonged period of spread among young people.
    I don;t understand why Corona is picking up in France and Spain, where controls are pretty draconian.

    ....????

    Because young people would not obey the rules, failed to wear masks and ignored social distancing, just like they are doing in the UK.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited August 2020
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1298964267664912385?s=20

    “It’s so bizarre, I actually feel a little bit sorry for the prime minister because it wasn’t ever intended for him – I did it as a message for the school management before I left in February,” the 48-year-old former librarian, who asked not to be named, told HuffPost UK.

    “It just became untenable to carry on working there because of the lack of support I had and I was left with no choice but to resign.

    “That’s why I decided to leave them a big message during my last week. They obviously never actually noticed, and it went untouched for six months.”

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,374
    nichomar said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:
    This should bring a smile to all you United fans.



    Sorry not sorry.
    Outrageous. The man is Innocent until proven Guilty again.
    I would tentatively suggest that a trial where none of the accused were present or represented and none of the evidence was challenged is not particularly good evidence of anything.
    They interviewed the defence team on the courtroom steps.
    Who had been there to ask for an adjournment (which was refused) not to conduct a trial.
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    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Knowing quite a few people from Eton, I can say - anecdotally - they are all exclusively arseholes.

    ISTM that simply to say you are an OE would qualify the person in your book as being an arsehole and hence forgive me if I don't take that assessment with any insight.
    I am sure there are lots of nice people at Eton. Just the ones I know are arseholes.
    If you know "quite a few" perhaps reviewing your social circles might be appropriate?
    Oh I don't see them much anymore, for that reason.

    I stick with people that are pleasant to be around :)
    Such as those on PB.
    Exactly, like you friend.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,424
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Trying to force the “work from the office and spend hours commuting” genie back in the bottle is not going to be easy. They should be embracing the increases in in quality of life and environmental aspect, rather than fretting over office space and coffee shops.
    I'm still not sure about the government caring that much about this issue, but if they do, then it says a lot about them. Mrs T wouldn't have tried to buck the market.
    She'd have seen it as a golden opportunity to destroy the RMT Union.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:
    This should bring a smile to all you United fans.



    Sorry not sorry.
    Outrageous. The man is Innocent until proven Guilty again.
    I would tentatively suggest that a trial where none of the accused were present or represented and none of the evidence was challenged is not particularly good evidence of anything.
    The Greek police are arseholes when I've seen them in action, which was in Athens 2007.

    If weren't for the fact there were so many British police out there in an official capacity it would have been much worse.

    They were indiscriminately striking people, including young children, then trying to arrest stricken people for being a nuisance is truly special.

    My 'favourite' was the Greek rozzer who grabbed official match tickets from Liverpool fans, hit them, then said they were trying to get in without tickets.
    I bet those tickets were retained as evidence that they were getting in without tickets.

    And didn't end up getting auctioned for the Police Benevolent Fund.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Just when you thought they couldn't go any lower.....

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1298933677259476993?s=20

    What's more of a concern is that his view is probably going to be widely cheered...
    Civil war within 10 years. It's inevitable.

    Trumpism will endure after Trump as other politicians will adopt the winning formula of socially conservative gobshite racist iconoclasm.
    I think the big picture is the white working class are getting angry about loss of (relative) privilege and of the 2 ways to respond to this politically -

    (i) Left. Restructure the economy in their favour and against financial elites.

    (ii) Right. Divert their grievance towards simplistic racist nationalism.

    Number (ii) is by far the easiest to do and to sell - since it is both base and basic - and is thus having more success at the moment.

    But the day will come when people wise up and choose (i).
    Here's the thing. The democrats have had 60 years to restructure the economy in the favour of the working classes in many big American cities, often with their own president in the Whitehouse.

    Have a look at those cities. How do you think its going??
    Baltimore springs to mind. Can’t think why ;)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015

    What bemuses me is why they worry about votes in London, they just won a landslide without

    No party wants to write off an area with so many seats forever. You need to try and see if headway can be made
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Just when you thought they couldn't go any lower.....

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1298933677259476993?s=20

    What's more of a concern is that his view is probably going to be widely cheered...
    Civil war within 10 years. It's inevitable.

    Trumpism will endure after Trump as other politicians will adopt the winning formula of socially conservative gobshite racist iconoclasm.
    I think the big picture is the white working class are getting angry about loss of (relative) privilege and of the 2 ways to respond to this politically -

    (i) Left. Restructure the economy in their favour and against financial elites.

    (ii) Right. Divert their grievance towards simplistic racist nationalism.

    Number (ii) is by far the easiest to do and to sell - since it is both base and basic - and is thus having more success at the moment.

    But the day will come when people wise up and choose (i).
    Here's the thing. The democrats have had 60 years to restructure the economy in the favour of the working classes in many big American cities, often with their own president in the Whitehouse.

    Have a look at those cities. How do you think its going??
    Baltimore springs to mind. Can’t think why ;)
    It all looked fine and dandy in The Wire.....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,132
    edited August 2020
    ..
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1298964267664912385?s=20

    “It’s so bizarre, I actually feel a little bit sorry for the prime minister because it wasn’t ever intended for him – I did it as a message for the school management before I left in February,” the 48-year-old former librarian, who asked not to be named, told HuffPost UK.

    “It just became untenable to carry on working there because of the lack of support I had and I was left with no choice but to resign.

    “That’s why I decided to leave them a big message during my last week. They obviously never actually noticed, and it went untouched for six months.”

    A bit like James May...

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PQc7YIzDwkk/TuU5p9xZutI/AAAAAAAAAd4/vaEWGor6SzA/s1600/James+May+-+Autocar+-+a+set+on+Flickr.jpg
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Just when you thought they couldn't go any lower.....

    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1298933677259476993?s=20

    What's more of a concern is that his view is probably going to be widely cheered...
    Civil war within 10 years. It's inevitable.

    Trumpism will endure after Trump as other politicians will adopt the winning formula of socially conservative gobshite racist iconoclasm.
    I think the big picture is the white working class are getting angry about loss of (relative) privilege and of the 2 ways to respond to this politically -

    (i) Left. Restructure the economy in their favour and against financial elites.

    (ii) Right. Divert their grievance towards simplistic racist nationalism.

    Number (ii) is by far the easiest to do and to sell - since it is both base and basic - and is thus having more success at the moment.

    But the day will come when people wise up and choose (i).
    Here's the thing. The democrats have had 60 years to restructure the economy in the favour of the working classes in many big American cities, often with their own president in the Whitehouse.

    Have a look at those cities. How do you think its going??
    Baltimore springs to mind. Can’t think why ;)

    Both left and right who despise right or left need to understand that the polar opposite to their world view is just as valid. Trying to explain to Corbynites why the Tories are popular was a waste of air and they still don't get it. Same with the Tories the other way round why not being an IDS to the poor/sick has appeal.

    I cannot foresee *any* circumstance where I would vote Tory nationally. Their worldview towards the poor/sick isn't something I will ever be able to associate myself with. And understand how for people on the other side its economic policies which similarly preclude them the other way.

    Which is where the LibDems could come in...

    When you say ‘being an IDS to the poor’, I assume you mean being allowed to work flexibly and with dignity, rather than being chained to an inflexible system that fined people thousands of pounds for daring to work 17 hours a week?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    I think the rapid increase in homelessness and rough sleeping since Labour left office is a moral stain and something we should be deeply ashamed of.

    While I think the fact that the numbers rough sleeping is in decline is a good thing that the government is dealing with well and hope that continues.

    Funny that.
    I deeply regretted the winding down of the schemes that had been put in place to get everyone off the street at the outbreak of the pandemic. That seemed to me an opportunity that should have been grasped to end this shame once and for all.
    Utah Republicans famously "did the math" on the cost of chronic rough sleeping and instituted policies to house and shelter Utah's homeless.

    The end result is cheaper than letting people sleep rough but people still whinge about the "moral hazard" it presents.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,067
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Doesn't mention Johnson once, but does praise Rishi and "the UK government":

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1298903479348596736?s=20

    I really like the tone of that article. The Tories need to engage across a much wider spectrum than independence/Indyref2, they need policies on schools, universities, employment and health. A very long way to go but its a good start.
    Interesting he talks about the £2000 Scottish dividend. Isn't that a ~ £200 cost for everyone else in the union :p
    @malcolmg , @Theuniondivvie , @Carnyx , @Alistair , @Easterross, @CarlottaVance (in exile), even, cough, me, who could doubt for a moment that you are getting your money's worth?
    Some folk like being dependents, some prefer independence. Strangely a lot of SCon types tend to the former.
    Quite so. For people who are always going on about parasites the Tories seem very reluctant to let the SNP administer the medicine.
    It is a rip off , we send them 66 Billion , they gives us 32B back and then claim they have spent 49B on us on crap they actually mainly bought for themselves and try to make out we run a deficit. You would need to be a moron to try and argue that garbage.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,055
    malcolmg said:

    Woooooooooooow imagine we sell shedloads of cheese to Japan
    Thought the Japanese were lactose-intolerant. Europeans have evolved over the centuries to eat the stuff; East Asians haven't.
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    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the rapid increase in homelessness and rough sleeping since Labour left office is a moral stain and something we should be deeply ashamed of.

    While I think the fact that the numbers rough sleeping is in decline is a good thing that the government is dealing with well and hope that continues.

    Funny that.
    I deeply regretted the winding down of the schemes that had been put in place to get everyone off the street at the outbreak of the pandemic. That seemed to me an opportunity that should have been grasped to end this shame once and for all.
    Utah Republicans famously "did the math" on the cost of chronic rough sleeping and instituted policies to house and shelter Utah's homeless.

    The end result is cheaper than letting people sleep rough but people still whinge about the "moral hazard" it presents.
    The trouble is that the UK is a lot more densely populated than Utah.
This discussion has been closed.