Not necessarily good news for Labour. The almost total invisibility of the Liberal Democrats has been extremely helpful for Labour during the Covid crisis and Starmer's ascent to a better position in the polls.
I think this is the best opposition we could have right now.
Starmer has quite well united the left and Davey has a decent chance of taking Tory votes.
Who feels scared to vote Lib Dem with Davey as leader, or Labour with Keir? A lot less than 2019 I suspect.
Also Davey is quite...likeable? I don't detest him like Swinson
LibDems have now replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
Labour have replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
The Tories still have the leader that enthused many traditionally antogonistic to the Tories, but who also aused many traditonal Tories to not vote for them (as I saw on the doorsteps).
If Boris isn't the leader but is replaced by say Sunak for 2024, all these changes may prove to be a zero sum game.
2.3 (ave pint) x 5 = 11.5 units. You metabolise approximately 1 unit an hour so you can compute how many units were still in your system. Probably too many to drive. The joys of WFH.
2 in the first hour and 1 per hour after that was the rule of thumb I always thought. Assuming he would have started driving at 8 to make a meeting a 9 he'd have been fine I'd have thought so long as he'd started drinking before 9pm?
The gold standard current advice is to count from when you stop drinking, and not drive till the formula says the alcohol is fully out of your system (though, of course, effective zero does not actually equate to no alcohol whatsoever in the blood)..
So for the units above drunk until 11pm, you can squeak an hour earlier, but best practice is not to drive until 10.30am.
I appreciate that's the advice on a sense of better safe than sorry but when you started and how consistently and quickly you've been drinking realistically matters.
If I were to go out at 7pm for a meal and have 5 pints between 7pm and midnight spaced evenly, then I'd think think it would be safe to drive at 8am the next morning. If I were to go out at 11pm and have 5 pints in an hour ending at midnight, then I would not.
That has always been my thought process. I tend to drink moderately so have no concerns about the next day and I do the same calculation, but would delay driving longer if I have been drinking an unknown quantity of wine at a party.
My only doubts come about when I see these police programmes where someone is stopped with a ridiculous amount of alcohol in their system from the night before. There are three possibilities:
a) they are lying and have been drinking that day b) they should be dead from alcohol poisoning c) the above calculation is wrong
I tend to believe a), but worry I am wrong.
d) They didn't realise how much they'd drank. Easily done especially if someone introduces shots into the round of drinks. It's very easy to consume eg a few Jagerbombs or Tequilas and forget about them. Or if drinking spirits or wine not realise how much is in the drink.
Indeed so. Got the tee shirt.
Taken aback slightly - and sneakily impressed - to hear that you sometimes have 5 pints with your dinner.
I couldn't do that. Or rather I wouldn't enjoy the food much if I did.
I said over an evening starting with dinner and ending at midnight, not over the course of a meal alone.
I won't say what my record for drinking in a night is, but I realised the next day that I could have died from it. The problem with excessive drinking is losing track of what you're doing and going to more excess, especially if you're with drunk and irresponsible people who encourage you to drink more. I wouldn't have driven not just the next day but the day after either.
Most of the time though I'm a boringly responsible drinker, I'd rather be at home and drink a bottle of wine over an evening going from dinner through to cheese and biscuits after than go out and drink to excess nowadays.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
To the right of Labour economically?? At the last election as shadow chancellor he was to the right of the Tories! (Personally I quite liked it but its a minority niche, no doubt about it.)
Zero at the moment. Ask the question about the chances of a Labour/Labour pact. Which unless/until there are mass expulsions of the cultists is also zero at the moment...
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
I think the LDs will always be a pro EU (and other trans-nationalist organisation) party, there needs to be an emphasis on other issues for the "mid terms" next year.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
He won't want to talk about as long as the tories do want to talk about it. When it fucks up and they don't want to talk about ED will bang on it about it non-stop.
The triumvirate of flabby, 50something white men is now complete.
LibDems have now replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
Labour have replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
The Tories still have the leader that enthused many traditionally antogonistic to the Tories, but who also aused many traditonal Tories to not vote for them (as I saw on the doorsteps).
If Boris isn't the leader but is replaced by say Sunak for 2024, all these changes may prove to be a zero sum game.
Brilliant typo, I have definitely been aused from the party by Boris.
Congrats to Ed. Seems a good guy. And congrats to those who backed him at 1.7 a few weeks ago - which I'm guessing is most of us.
From a Labour perspective I'm unsure if this is good news. It might be. But OTOH, Davey is similar to Starmer in style as a politician and therefore the two of them could have the effect of making the ghastly "Boris" brand stand out all the more. They could form the grey background curtain to the stage on which he poses and postures and prances around.
The muscular man of the people versus the effete Sirs? Bring it on!
Mmm. Bullingdon Bruiser takes on the social elites. This sentence, in any sane world, ought to be satire, but one can never be sure these days.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
To the right of Labour economically?? At the last election as shadow chancellor he was to the right of the Tories! (Personally I quite liked it but its a minority niche, no doubt about it.)
A party of financial sanity is very much needed.
Ed was a very effective coalition minister, he knows how to get things done, so far and away the best choice. We need an Orange Book party.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
I think the LDs will always be a pro EU (and other trans-nationalist organisation) party, there needs to be an emphasis on other issues for the "mid terms" next year.
2.3 (ave pint) x 5 = 11.5 units. You metabolise approximately 1 unit an hour so you can compute how many units were still in your system. Probably too many to drive. The joys of WFH.
2 in the first hour and 1 per hour after that was the rule of thumb I always thought. Assuming he would have started driving at 8 to make a meeting a 9 he'd have been fine I'd have thought so long as he'd started drinking before 9pm?
The gold standard current advice is to count from when you stop drinking, and not drive till the formula says the alcohol is fully out of your system (though, of course, effective zero does not actually equate to no alcohol whatsoever in the blood)..
So for the units above drunk until 11pm, you can squeak an hour earlier, but best practice is not to drive until 10.30am.
I appreciate that's the advice on a sense of better safe than sorry but when you started and how consistently and quickly you've been drinking realistically matters.
If I were to go out at 7pm for a meal and have 5 pints between 7pm and midnight spaced evenly, then I'd think think it would be safe to drive at 8am the next morning. If I were to go out at 11pm and have 5 pints in an hour ending at midnight, then I would not.
That has always been my thought process. I tend to drink moderately so have no concerns about the next day and I do the same calculation, but would delay driving longer if I have been drinking an unknown quantity of wine at a party.
My only doubts come about when I see these police programmes where someone is stopped with a ridiculous amount of alcohol in their system from the night before. There are three possibilities:
a) they are lying and have been drinking that day b) they should be dead from alcohol poisoning c) the above calculation is wrong
I tend to believe a), but worry I am wrong.
d) They didn't realise how much they'd drank. Easily done especially if someone introduces shots into the round of drinks. It's very easy to consume eg a few Jagerbombs or Tequilas and forget about them. Or if drinking spirits or wine not realise how much is in the drink.
Indeed so. Got the tee shirt.
Taken aback slightly - and sneakily impressed - to hear that you sometimes have 5 pints with your dinner.
I couldn't do that. Or rather I wouldn't enjoy the food much if I did.
I said over an evening starting with dinner and ending at midnight, not over the course of a meal alone.
I won't say what my record for drinking in a night is, but I realised the next day that I could have died from it. The problem with excessive drinking is losing track of what you're doing and going to more excess, especially if you're with drunk and irresponsible people who encourage you to drink more. I wouldn't have driven not just the next day but the day after either.
Most of the time though I'm a boringly responsible drinker, I'd rather be at home and drink a bottle of wine over an evening going from dinner through to cheese and biscuits after than go out and drink to excess nowadays.
A bottle of wine (particularly now many are 14% or more) and five pints aren’t that far apart in terms of units
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
I'm not sure Ed ever talks about anything other than sustainable energy.
He's a supporter of tidal lagoon power stations. Which is a tick in the box....
Significant constituency for that on PB.
I think generally going very green, more renewables, cancelling Hinkley Point, accelerating electric only vehicles in city centres in particular and committing to the infrastructure necessary for that, cancelling Heathrow expansion in the new circumstances, etc is the way to go. It is much more mainstream than it was but the other parties are being slow enough to leave space to be heard.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
I think the LDs will always be a pro EU (and other trans-nationalist organisation) party, there needs to be an emphasis on other issues for the "mid terms" next year.
Amazing. And there is really no response except to hope and trust that America has sufficient basic decency left in the tank to hand people like this and their standard bearer a clear democratic rejection on 3/11.
LibDems have now replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
Labour have replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
The Tories still have the leader that enthused many traditionally antogonistic to the Tories, but who also aused many traditonal Tories to not vote for them (as I saw on the doorsteps).
If Boris isn't the leader but is replaced by say Sunak for 2024, all these changes may prove to be a zero sum game.
Sunak though would likely lose Leavers to the Brexit Party again even if he regained some Remainers from Labour and the LDs by switching to soft Brexit
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
To the right of Labour economically?? At the last election as shadow chancellor he was to the right of the Tories! (Personally I quite liked it but its a minority niche, no doubt about it.)
A party of financial sanity is very much needed.
Ed was a very effective coalition minister, he knows how to get things done, so far and away the best choice. We need an Orange Book party.
I agree about the fiscal sanity but the challenge of the Lib Dem leader is not to get things done, he won't have the opportunity. It is to be heard and influence the debate and I fear he's a bit dull for that. Compare him with Charlie Kennedy, for example.
If he replaced Boris the only likely reason would be WTO terms Brexit went as badly as the poll tax did for Thatcher and like Major he replaced the PM on a platform of ending it
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
LibDems have now replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
Labour have replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
The Tories still have the leader that enthused many traditionally antogonistic to the Tories, but who also aused many traditonal Tories to not vote for them (as I saw on the doorsteps).
If Boris isn't the leader but is replaced by say Sunak for 2024, all these changes may prove to be a zero sum game.
Sunak though would likely lose Leavers to the Brexit Party again even if he regained some Remainers from Labour and the LDs by switching to soft Brexit
Surely Bozo is needed in office to do the dirty on Brexit at some point early in ‘21, then having taken the flak from the fanatics he can be put out to grass?
Despite crushing disappointments, GE2019 gave the Liberal Democrats certain grounds for optimism. The party made progress in several seats and achieved 91 second-placed finishes, many of which were close. Most of these second places were in southern English seats held by the Conservatives. In 2024, there will be few contests with Labour. Of the 39 top Liberal Democrats target seats by swing, Labour hold just two (Sheffield Hallam and Cambridge).
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
To the right of Labour economically?? At the last election as shadow chancellor he was to the right of the Tories! (Personally I quite liked it but its a minority niche, no doubt about it.)
Big chance for the LDs to own the space of fiscal responsibility. Faced with a Tory Party taking the knee to the Magic Money Tree and a Labour Party scared to tax the middle class, the LDs can hoover up the votes of all those people for whom sound money matters and who are not happy to foist the bills of today onto the citizens of tomorrow and next week.
How many votes are we talking about nationally? Ooo, well into 4 figures?
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
That is good for creating more Tory voters nationally but at local level will see more Tory councillors in the Home counties lose their seats to the LDs
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
To the right of Labour economically?? At the last election as shadow chancellor he was to the right of the Tories! (Personally I quite liked it but its a minority niche, no doubt about it.)
Big chance for the LDs to own the space of fiscal responsibility. Faced with a Tory Party taking the knee to the Magic Money Tree and a Labour Party scared to tax the middle class, the LDs can hoover up the votes of all those people for whom sound money matters and who are not happy to foist the bills of today onto the citizens of tomorrow and next week.
How many votes are we talking about nationally? Ooo, well into 4 figures?
I think it more a matter of competence and good administration. That is what usually wins council seats for the Lib Dems. I expect a strong emphasis on this for next year.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit. The SNP would obviously go with Labour too.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
That is good for creating more Tory voters nationally but at local level will see more Tory councillors in the Home counties lose their seats to the LDs
So f***ing what if that happens?
That people are able to get on the housing ladder matters infinitely more than what party gets what Councillor. Or do you think the housing system should put the partisan ambitions of Councillors ahead of the needs of people wanting to get houses?
Thanks for the monitor recommendations. Ideally it would have USB-C and I’m concerned about how it will look compared to my Macbook Pro “Retina” screen. Some reviews on Amazon for the Dell IPS suggest that text and images are not as crisp. Any thoughts?
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
Yep. Like it or not (and many won't), housing needs to be the top priority after Covid and Brexit. Another year 300k+ net immigration is unsustainable if people have nowhere to live. The number of new house builds needs to at least match the net immigration figure for several years.
From a party political point of view, people in their late 30s and 40s who can't afford to buy a house are not voting Conservative. That needs to be made clear to the existing membership.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
Not necessarily good news for Labour. The almost total invisibility of the Liberal Democrats for the duration of their leadership race has been extremely helpful for Labour during the Covid crisis, and during the time of Starmer's ascent to a better position in the polls.
True. Almost all Labour's gains since the election have come at the apparent expense of the LDs.
Thanks for the monitor recommendations. Ideally it would have USB-C and I’m concerned about how it will look compared to my Macbook Pro “Retina” screen. Some reviews on Amazon for the Dell IPS suggest that text and images are not as crisp. Any thoughts?
You'll want something with more than 200 pixels/inch to have the same resolution as the retina display.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
Yep. Like it or not (and many won't), housing needs to be the top priority after Covid and Brexit. Another year 300k+ net immigration is unsustainable if people have nowhere to live. The number of new house builds needs to at least match the net immigration figure for several years.
From a party political point of view, people in their late 30s and 40s who can't afford to buy a house are not voting Conservative. That needs to be made clear to the existing membership.
I think the net migration figures will be a lot lower this year, driven particularly by fewer international students. The figures pre Covid-19 are misleading.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
I agree. Apart from policy issues, Tory treachery has destroyed any credibility with potential partners, even the DUP.
That Isolation is the flipside of consolidating the right wing vote. A solid 40% but none of the other 60% willing to support.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
Brexit has already happened, and our future relationship is entirely in the hands of the Conservative Party.
If it turns out fine, then there will be no desire for “EEA” for the sake of it from Labour or the Lib Dems.
If the Government ballses it up, then all bets are off. Who knows?
Thanks for the monitor recommendations. Ideally it would have USB-C and I’m concerned about how it will look compared to my Macbook Pro “Retina” screen. Some reviews on Amazon for the Dell IPS suggest that text and images are not as crisp. Any thoughts?
I have the 4k Dell and the PQ is incredible, it's got USB-C power delivery in built. I honestly couldn't recommend it more.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
He is, but I can understand why, its not as if the government have anything worth talking about since getting elected. Yes, other parties would make hay about the Rishi money, but this lot won't as (1) unconservative and (2) direct threat to the boss.
So best to talk about Brexit for a fit. Until it turns to shit and all their guff is shown up for the IDS it is.
What's more of a concern is that his view is probably going to be widely cheered...
Civil war within 10 years. It's inevitable.
Trumpism will endure after Trump as other politicians will adopt the winning formula of socially conservative gobshite racist iconoclasm.
I think the big picture is the white working class are getting angry about loss of (relative) privilege and of the 2 ways to respond to this politically -
(i) Left. Restructure the economy in their favour and against financial elites.
(ii) Right. Divert their grievance towards simplistic racist nationalism.
Number (ii) is by far the easiest to do and to sell - since it is both base and basic - and is thus having more success at the moment.
But the day will come when people wise up and choose (i).
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
Yep. Like it or not (and many won't), housing needs to be the top priority after Covid and Brexit. Another year 300k+ net immigration is unsustainable if people have nowhere to live. The number of new house builds needs to at least match the net immigration figure for several years.
From a party political point of view, people in their late 30s and 40s who can't afford to buy a house are not voting Conservative. That needs to be made clear to the existing membership.
I think the net migration figures will be a lot lower this year, driven particularly by fewer international students. The figures pre Covid-19 are misleading.
Yes, next year will likely be much lower - a combination of international students (why do we even count those in the first place?), EU citizens who came over last year to get the valuable NI number returning, and many made redundant in hospitality sector and unable to find work in London returning too.
We might even see net emigration for the first time in ages, but it will be a temporary blip and still doesn't negate the fact that we need to build at least a million more houses as soon as possible.
A tweak in the way European governments count the number of fatalities is also keeping these figures down; mortality statistics now only include those dead within 21 days after they were diagnosed with the virus, thereby excluding the elderly who may have been infected, but who could have died from other natural causes.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
I agree. Apart from policy issues, Tory treachery has destroyed any credibility with potential partners, even the DUP.
That Isolation is the flipside of consolidating the right wing vote. A solid 40% but none of the other 60% willing to support.
Yes, the Tory coalition is solid around 40% but it needs to get a majority to stay in power, any slippage to a hung parliament and it loses power
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
Which would have been relevant at the last election pre-Brexit or even if there was one now during transition, it is utterly irrelevant come 2024 unless a party decides to revisit the terms of Brexit - which none are showing any signs of doing yet.
By 2024 this debate will be over, just like how Blair didn't revisit many things bitterly debated under Thatcher.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
Brexit has already happened, and our future relationship is entirely in the hands of the Conservative Party.
If it turns out fine, then there will be no desire for “EEA” for the sake of it from Labour or the Lib Dems.
If the Government ballses it up, then all bets are off. Who knows?
If Brexit turns out fine and the UK is booming in 2024 then the Tories will almost certainly win another majority anyway
Thanks for the monitor recommendations. Ideally it would have USB-C and I’m concerned about how it will look compared to my Macbook Pro “Retina” screen. Some reviews on Amazon for the Dell IPS suggest that text and images are not as crisp. Any thoughts?
Newer isn't always better.
I am reading and writing this on an IBM Thinkvision screen that must be at a minimum 10 years old, probably closer to 15.
I do my daily work on an 27" NEC LCD that must be at a minimum 5 years old. I bought a 27" Lenovo with a higher resolution to work alongside it 3 years ago, and have had to replace it already.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
Brexit has already happened, and our future relationship is entirely in the hands of the Conservative Party.
If it turns out fine, then there will be no desire for “EEA” for the sake of it from Labour or the Lib Dems.
If the Government ballses it up, then all bets are off. Who knows?
If Brexit turns out fine and the UK is booming in 2024 then the Tories will almost certainly win another majority anyway
Big if, but yes of course, if they govern well there’s no reason why they wont be re-elected.
It's one of the reasons, it is not the only reason.
If I get a house I won't be saying well done to the Tories for doing it, it will be my hard work and saving that does that. The Tories haven't helped one bit, indeed giving me a bigger student loan pissed me off enough
Comments
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1298935777515188229?s=20
Starmer has quite well united the left and Davey has a decent chance of taking Tory votes.
Who feels scared to vote Lib Dem with Davey as leader, or Labour with Keir? A lot less than 2019 I suspect.
Also Davey is quite...likeable? I don't detest him like Swinson
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dell-S2719DC-Ultra-Thin-LED-backlit-Connectivity/dp/B07GJYCJXX/
LibDems have now replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
Labour have replaced a terrible, terrible leader with one less terrible.
The Tories still have the leader that enthused many traditionally antogonistic to the Tories, but who also aused many traditonal Tories to not vote for them (as I saw on the doorsteps).
If Boris isn't the leader but is replaced by say Sunak for 2024, all these changes may prove to be a zero sum game.
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1298933677259476993?s=20
I won't say what my record for drinking in a night is, but I realised the next day that I could have died from it. The problem with excessive drinking is losing track of what you're doing and going to more excess, especially if you're with drunk and irresponsible people who encourage you to drink more. I wouldn't have driven not just the next day but the day after either.
Most of the time though I'm a boringly responsible drinker, I'd rather be at home and drink a bottle of wine over an evening going from dinner through to cheese and biscuits after than go out and drink to excess nowadays.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1298934056420364288?s=20
https://www.scan.co.uk/shop/computer-hardware/monitors/336/2308#filter=1&manufacturers=Dell
The top end 27" one £339 vs Amazon £449
The triumvirate of flabby, 50something white men is now complete.
Ed was a very effective coalition minister, he knows how to get things done, so far and away the best choice. We need an Orange Book party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership
I think generally going very green, more renewables, cancelling Hinkley Point, accelerating electric only vehicles in city centres in particular and committing to the infrastructure necessary for that, cancelling Heathrow expansion in the new circumstances, etc is the way to go. It is much more mainstream than it was but the other parties are being slow enough to leave space to be heard.
Trumpism will endure after Trump as other politicians will adopt the winning formula of socially conservative gobshite racist iconoclasm.
Davey is clearly best placed to win these. The top 10 there should be quite easy to take, I would think
Tories upset more houses might be built
Despite crushing disappointments, GE2019 gave the Liberal Democrats certain grounds for optimism. The party made progress in several seats and achieved 91 second-placed finishes, many of which were close. Most of these second places were in southern English seats held by the Conservatives. In 2024, there will be few contests with Labour. Of the 39 top Liberal Democrats target seats by swing, Labour hold just two (Sheffield Hallam and Cambridge).
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
How many votes are we talking about nationally? Ooo, well into 4 figures?
Despite that they made massive progress in a lot of seats, I think they likely take say Winchester and Guildford next time
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=cameron+common+people&docid=608045937576314150&mid=750228E0E67B9C1D7924750228E0E67B9C1D7924&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
That people are able to get on the housing ladder matters infinitely more than what party gets what Councillor. Or do you think the housing system should put the partisan ambitions of Councillors ahead of the needs of people wanting to get houses?
From a party political point of view, people in their late 30s and 40s who can't afford to buy a house are not voting Conservative. That needs to be made clear to the existing membership.
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1298945709371273216?s=20
https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT202471
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
That Isolation is the flipside of consolidating the right wing vote. A solid 40% but none of the other 60% willing to support.
If it turns out fine, then there will be no desire for “EEA” for the sake of it from Labour or the Lib Dems.
If the Government ballses it up, then all bets are off. Who knows?
So best to talk about Brexit for a fit. Until it turns to shit and all their guff is shown up for the IDS it is.
(i) Left. Restructure the economy in their favour and against financial elites.
(ii) Right. Divert their grievance towards simplistic racist nationalism.
Number (ii) is by far the easiest to do and to sell - since it is both base and basic - and is thus having more success at the moment.
But the day will come when people wise up and choose (i).
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
We might even see net emigration for the first time in ages, but it will be a temporary blip and still doesn't negate the fact that we need to build at least a million more houses as soon as possible.
A tweak in the way European governments count the number of fatalities is also keeping these figures down; mortality statistics now only include those dead within 21 days after they were diagnosed with the virus, thereby excluding the elderly who may have been infected, but who could have died from other natural causes.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/high-alert-over-spike-of-coronavirus-infections-in-europe
Sounds like a downright fiddle. Diagnosis to death in 21 days is going some.
By 2024 this debate will be over, just like how Blair didn't revisit many things bitterly debated under Thatcher.
I am reading and writing this on an IBM Thinkvision screen that must be at a minimum 10 years old, probably closer to 15.
I do my daily work on an 27" NEC LCD that must be at a minimum 5 years old. I bought a 27" Lenovo with a higher resolution to work alongside it 3 years ago, and have had to replace it already.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
If I get a house I won't be saying well done to the Tories for doing it, it will be my hard work and saving that does that. The Tories haven't helped one bit, indeed giving me a bigger student loan pissed me off enough
I think Corbyn was in hindsight a crap leader but still better than Johnson.