Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
Which would have been relevant at the last election pre-Brexit or even if there was one now during transition, it is utterly irrelevant come 2024 unless a party decides to revisit the terms of Brexit - which none are showing any signs of doing yet.
By 2024 this debate will be over, just like how Blair didn't revisit many things bitterly debated under Thatcher.
All the opposition parties voted down the Withdrawal Agreements of both Boris and May, all bar the DUP voted to stay in the Single Market and/or Customs Union and all bar the DUP voted against No Deal.
However now the Boris Withdrawal Agreement and the border in the Irish Sea has passed the DUP have said they would vote for EEA for the whole UK rather than separate Northern Ireland from GB
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
So here is my question to the "Trump has a better chance than you think you are letting your emotions cloud your predictions" crowd.
What were you saying in 2018 before the midterms?
Because I distinctly remember a cadre of posters who said you couldn't trust the polls, that the polls would tighten by election day, that Dem policy X would be really unpopular with swing voters (aleways, conicidentally a policy that they personally disagreed with), that there would be shy Trump voters, that there would be voters who weren't concerned with Trump so Trump's popularity wouldn't be an issue, that the Dem vote would be in all the wrong places, that the Dems were complacent etc.
The Dems then got their largest increase in seats in 44 years.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
EEA and CU would necessarily involve ripping up any trade deals we'd signed in the interim period. It's not been on the table since we officially left the EU in January.
If Brexit is an issue in 2024, I think something has gone wrong for the Tories
It will be an issue. The toxic legacy will linger, and be increasingly hard to defend.
You hope.
I expect the economic effects to be bad, but not disastrous, it is the culture war on the young that will be the toxic legacy, whatever happens economically.
I'm sure that's the only mistake in the paragraph - it's not as if the black man "getting into his car" had a knife in the driver's side footwell or anything.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
EEA and CU would necessarily involve ripping up any trade deals we'd signed in the interim period. It's not been on the table since we officially left the EU in January.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
To some extent this depends on whether the house owner sees the bricks and mortar as primarily an investment, or as a home in which to live in.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
I'm not sure Ed ever talks about anything other than sustainable energy.
He's a supporter of tidal lagoon power stations. Which is a tick in the box....
Significant constituency for that on PB.
I think generally going very green, more renewables, cancelling Hinkley Point, accelerating electric only vehicles in city centres in particular and committing to the infrastructure necessary for that, cancelling Heathrow expansion in the new circumstances, etc is the way to go. It is much more mainstream than it was but the other parties are being slow enough to leave space to be heard.
Domestic heating is another one we should be able to make quick progress on. And electrifying the railways.
At the same time we need to put funding and incentives in place so that technology can develop to reduce emissions from construction (concrete), cargo ships, agriculture, etc, so that they will be ready for mass adoption once we've finished eliminating gas from the electricity grid.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
Which would have been relevant at the last election pre-Brexit or even if there was one now during transition, it is utterly irrelevant come 2024 unless a party decides to revisit the terms of Brexit - which none are showing any signs of doing yet.
By 2024 this debate will be over, just like how Blair didn't revisit many things bitterly debated under Thatcher.
All the opposition parties voted down the Withdrawal Agreements of both Boris and May, all bar the DUP voted to stay in the Single Market and/or Customs Union and all bar the DUP voted against No Deal.
However now the Boris Withdrawal Agreement and the border in the Irish Sea has passed the DUP have said they would vote for EEA for the whole UK rather than separate Northern Ireland from GB
Yes and Labour voted down privatisation and reforms to curb union powers in the 80s - doesn't mean that when Blair came to power that he reversed those decisions. Blair didn't spend his time in office reversing Thatcher's reforms, he came to power with his own agenda and his own reforms.
When it comes to 2024 then as far as Brexit is concerned it will be already done and a case of "what is done, is done". Starmer could come to power seeking to spend his time refighting old battles and undoing what Boris had done - or far more likely he would if he wins come to power with his own agenda and his own issues just like Blair did. Which is unlikely to be EEA or anything Europe related.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The exception was the 1987 election IIRC. The difference is that the average (median) age was just 34 in 1975, whereas now it's 41.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
You personally may or may not but a vast, vast number of your age cohort will. It happens all the time.
Life is complex and what the Tories stand for is good, once people have to balance bills in their own life then they come to understand what the Tories stand for much better.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
Maybe not, but you're definitely not going to vote for them if you can't get a mortgage.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
If the party numbers are like 2010 then yes, you are right. How realistic is it that the Liberal Democrats get over 50 seats though?
I've seen the videos, the Sun report is inaccurate to put it mildly. He'll be charged with possession of a weapon under the age of 18 and crossing state lines with a weapon, will be acquitted of manslaughter/murder if it reaches court.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The average age of becoming a Tory voter is about 37 at the moment, it coincides pretty well with owning a home for a few years and becoming comfortable with it. Home ownership might not be a motivator of your vote but it is for a huge number of people, there's a reason the Tories do well with home owners and Labour do well with private and social renters.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
You personally may or may not but a vast, vast number of your age cohort will. It happens all the time.
Life is complex and what the Tories stand for is good, once people have to balance bills in their own life then they come to understand what the Tories stand for much better.
You think the Tories stand for good stuff, I don't.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
EEA and CU would necessarily involve ripping up any trade deals we'd signed in the interim period. It's not been on the table since we officially left the EU in January.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
To the right of Labour economically?? At the last election as shadow chancellor he was to the right of the Tories! (Personally I quite liked it but its a minority niche, no doubt about it.)
Big chance for the LDs to own the space of fiscal responsibility. Faced with a Tory Party taking the knee to the Magic Money Tree and a Labour Party scared to tax the middle class, the LDs can hoover up the votes of all those people for whom sound money matters and who are not happy to foist the bills of today onto the citizens of tomorrow and next week.
How many votes are we talking about nationally? Ooo, well into 4 figures?
I think it more a matter of competence and good administration. That is what usually wins council seats for the Lib Dems. I expect a strong emphasis on this for next year.
I hope so. And I take no pleasure from the death of sound money in mainstream politics. I'm on the left but I'm not a believer in the magic money tree. I believe in tax & spend not borrow/print & spend.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The average age of becoming a Tory voter is about 37 at the moment, it coincides pretty well with owning a home for a few years and becoming comfortable with it. Home ownership might not be a motivator of your vote but it is for a huge number of people, there's a reason the Tories do well with home owners and Labour do well with private and social renters.
I think we're blurring two issues.
For me, getting a mortgage is not going to change my vote. For others, it can and does, I get that and I agree.
But it doesn't get the Tories enough voters in the under 30 category for it to matter, Labour gets what 50%+ of the vote?
My point was that to increase their voteshare with the under 30s, housing would be a big part of it. But achievement would be massively increasing ownership and to do that would mean house prices coming down.
They aren't going to bother, because we don't vote and older people do. That's reality.
And saying "the average age is coming down" doesn't help people now, it means nothing. If by 2024 the average age is below 30 they'll get more votes. I don't see it though.
I have owned a house for over 2 years and have no inclination to start voting for the Conservative Party. I may have become slightly more small “c” conservative now that I have an asset to protect, but the Conservative Party is now as radical as the Corbynite left.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
There's some truth in it; having a tangible thing like a house that you (in some sense) own changes your relationship with society. It's also a bigger pressure to pay the mortgage every month.
But I do think Phillip is oversimplifying things here. For a start, to make a meaningful dent in affordability by 2024 is going to be difficult to do without screwing over current homeowners. (The last big house price fall was the early 1990s, and that was painful and utterly toxic for the Conservatives).
Secondly, I think Phillip is misreading the map of the red-to-blue wall. Many of the seats that flipped are towns where housing is already pretty cheap. They're also often places where there's been a change in the age profile; fewer young people and more older people. It's more likely to be built on Brexit and the wider culture war than housebuilding.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
There's some truth in it; having a tangible thing like a house that you (in some sense) own changes your relationship with society. It's also a bigger pressure to pay the mortgage every month.
But I do think Phillip is oversimplifying things here. For a start, to make a meaningful dent in affordability by 2024 is going to be difficult to do without screwing over current homeowners. (The last big house price fall was the early 1990s, and that was painful and utterly toxic for the Conservatives).
Secondly, I think Phillip is misreading the map of the red-to-blue wall. Many of the seats that flipped are towns where housing is already pretty cheap. They're also often places where there's been a change in the age profile; fewer young people and more older people. It's more likely to be built on Brexit and the wider culture war than housebuilding.
Paying a mortgage is less pressure than paying rent, considering it’s cheaper than rent...
2.3 (ave pint) x 5 = 11.5 units. You metabolise approximately 1 unit an hour so you can compute how many units were still in your system. Probably too many to drive. The joys of WFH.
2 in the first hour and 1 per hour after that was the rule of thumb I always thought. Assuming he would have started driving at 8 to make a meeting a 9 he'd have been fine I'd have thought so long as he'd started drinking before 9pm?
The gold standard current advice is to count from when you stop drinking, and not drive till the formula says the alcohol is fully out of your system (though, of course, effective zero does not actually equate to no alcohol whatsoever in the blood)..
So for the units above drunk until 11pm, you can squeak an hour earlier, but best practice is not to drive until 10.30am.
I appreciate that's the advice on a sense of better safe than sorry but when you started and how consistently and quickly you've been drinking realistically matters.
If I were to go out at 7pm for a meal and have 5 pints between 7pm and midnight spaced evenly, then I'd think think it would be safe to drive at 8am the next morning. If I were to go out at 11pm and have 5 pints in an hour ending at midnight, then I would not.
That has always been my thought process. I tend to drink moderately so have no concerns about the next day and I do the same calculation, but would delay driving longer if I have been drinking an unknown quantity of wine at a party.
My only doubts come about when I see these police programmes where someone is stopped with a ridiculous amount of alcohol in their system from the night before. There are three possibilities:
a) they are lying and have been drinking that day b) they should be dead from alcohol poisoning c) the above calculation is wrong
I tend to believe a), but worry I am wrong.
d) They didn't realise how much they'd drank. Easily done especially if someone introduces shots into the round of drinks. It's very easy to consume eg a few Jagerbombs or Tequilas and forget about them. Or if drinking spirits or wine not realise how much is in the drink.
Indeed so. Got the tee shirt.
Taken aback slightly - and sneakily impressed - to hear that you sometimes have 5 pints with your dinner.
I couldn't do that. Or rather I wouldn't enjoy the food much if I did.
I said over an evening starting with dinner and ending at midnight, not over the course of a meal alone.
I won't say what my record for drinking in a night is, but I realised the next day that I could have died from it. The problem with excessive drinking is losing track of what you're doing and going to more excess, especially if you're with drunk and irresponsible people who encourage you to drink more. I wouldn't have driven not just the next day but the day after either.
Most of the time though I'm a boringly responsible drinker, I'd rather be at home and drink a bottle of wine over an evening going from dinner through to cheese and biscuits after than go out and drink to excess nowadays.
I'm conflicted on drink. The world would be better without it but I can't imagine that world.
In general though, I support building more housing. I just don't think the Tories will do it on the scale that's needed.
But we'll see.
I wonder if Labour will oppose the planning changes. If it's got green belt Tories up in arms it surely must be good?
Labour hasn't got much to lose by supporting them. I support anything to build more housing (especially affordable housing), I haven't seen a lot of detail though.
A tweak in the way European governments count the number of fatalities is also keeping these figures down; mortality statistics now only include those dead within 21 days after they were diagnosed with the virus, thereby excluding the elderly who may have been infected, but who could have died from other natural causes.
I really like the tone of that article. The Tories need to engage across a much wider spectrum than independence/Indyref2, they need policies on schools, universities, employment and health. A very long way to go but its a good start.
Interesting he talks about the £2000 Scottish dividend. Isn't that a ~ £200 cost for everyone else in the union
I have owned a house for over 2 years and have no inclination to start voting for the Conservative Party. I may have become slightly more small “c” conservative now that I have an asset to protect, but the Conservative Party is now as radical as the Corbynite left.
Philip sort of has a point on ownership, that people that own housing tend to the Tory Party. I'd be interested to see if that is the same in the under 30s or not.
My problem with the bulk of his point is this idea that I will become a Tory because I now have a mortgage. My ideological position is the same as it was last year, I was and still am a social democrat.
It's all slightly pointless, the Tories are not actively courting the under 30 vote and I don't blame them
A tweak in the way European governments count the number of fatalities is also keeping these figures down; mortality statistics now only include those dead within 21 days after they were diagnosed with the virus, thereby excluding the elderly who may have been infected, but who could have died from other natural causes.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think. The difference is that the average (median) age was just 34 in 1975, whereas now it's 41.
I disagree with that 1987 point. It's true that the unemployment crisis of the early 80's was on the mend by then, which had hit the under 30's much harder than over 30's but house prices were steaming upwards and the instant privatisation handouts were by passing the younger generation by.
The group which the tories did "win over" in 1987 were the council house tennents who had bought their houses for a song. Not many people in this group were under 30.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
I never said the Tories are popular with the young, I said they are addressing the concerns of the young and will win them around in the future. Today's young is the future old generations. The idea that today's young, when they are older and wiser, will still magically be voting for Labour is a myth propagated by every generation.
You won't remain young forever. There are five years between every General Election normally, that is a pretty long time. Your under thirties of today could be mid-thirties by the next General Election. The mid-thirties of today could be in their forties next time - and so on. And they will change accordingly and there'll be a new generation voting for the first time.
I'm a Millenial, just, whose first vote was for Blair but unless there's an early election this last election was my last election in my thirties. By 2024 I'll be in my forties. The generation of Millenials who voted first time around for Blair - are now starting to vote more for the Tories than for Labour. I don't know how old exactly you are but I'm guessing you're a decade younger - so in a decade's time, or two General Elections from now, you'll see a lot more of your own cohort considering their voting differently. You may or may not be one of them. Probably as there will be a swing to Labour inevitably you'll be less likely to change your mind prior to Labour being in office but after Labour have been in office it will be your Generation that swings hardest to kick them out of it.
As for the issues that you chose that represent what you dislike - "Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis." - Labour were behind all of those. It was Labour's overspending that caused austerity. It was Labour's messing around with the EU Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty that led to Brexit. It was Labour that introduced Tuition Fees. It was Labour that created the housing crisis and under Labour home ownership rates for the young collapsed.
So here is my question to the "Trump has a better chance than you think you are letting your emotions cloud your predictions" crowd.
What were you saying in 2018 before the midterms?
Because I distinctly remember a cadre of posters who said you couldn't trust the polls, that the polls would tighten by election day, that Dem policy X would be really unpopular with swing voters (aleways, conicidentally a policy that they personally disagreed with), that there would be shy Trump voters, that there would be voters who weren't concerned with Trump so Trump's popularity wouldn't be an issue, that the Dem vote would be in all the wrong places, that the Dems were complacent etc.
The Dems then got their largest increase in seats in 44 years.
A very good point that's difficult to answer. I think the dems were a much nicer lot before Pelosi became speaker. And of course there was no BLM in 2018. But You have a very good point.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
You personally may or may not but a vast, vast number of your age cohort will. It happens all the time.
Life is complex and what the Tories stand for is good, once people have to balance bills in their own life then they come to understand what the Tories stand for much better.
You think the Tories stand for good stuff, I don't.
You haven't said what you think the Tories stand for.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
I never said the Tories are popular with the young, I said they are addressing the concerns of the young and will win them around in the future. Today's young is the future old generations. The idea that today's young, when they are older and wiser, will still magically be voting for Labour is a myth propagated by every generation.
You won't remain young forever. There are five years between every General Election normally, that is a pretty long time. Your under thirties of today could be mid-thirties by the next General Election. The mid-thirties of today could be in their forties next time - and so on. And they will change accordingly and there'll be a new generation voting for the first time.
I'm a Millenial, just, whose first vote was for Blair but unless there's an early election this last election was my last election in my thirties. By 2024 I'll be in my forties. The generation of Millenials who voted first time around for Blair - are now starting to vote more for the Tories than for Labour. I don't know how old exactly you are but I'm guessing you're a decade younger - so in a decade's time, or two General Elections from now, you'll see a lot more of your own cohort considering their voting differently. You may or may not be one of them. Probably as there will be a swing to Labour inevitably you'll be less likely to change your mind prior to Labour being in office but after Labour have been in office it will be your Generation that swings hardest to kick them out of it.
As for the issues that you chose that represent what you dislike - "Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis." - Labour were behind all of those. It was Labour's overspending that caused austerity. It was Labour's messing around with the EU Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty that led to Brexit. It was Labour that introduced Tuition Fees. It was Labour that created the housing crisis and under Labour home ownership rates for the young collapsed.
To blame Labour when they haven't been in Government for 10 years is one of your problems Philip.
You could have resolved these issues, you chose not to. Not my problem.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
You personally may or may not but a vast, vast number of your age cohort will. It happens all the time.
Life is complex and what the Tories stand for is good, once people have to balance bills in their own life then they come to understand what the Tories stand for much better.
You think the Tories stand for good stuff, I don't.
You haven't said what you think the Tories stand for.
Their current leader is another bloke from Eton, I thought I didn't have to say much more
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
There's some truth in it; having a tangible thing like a house that you (in some sense) own changes your relationship with society. It's also a bigger pressure to pay the mortgage every month.
But I do think Phillip is oversimplifying things here. For a start, to make a meaningful dent in affordability by 2024 is going to be difficult to do without screwing over current homeowners. (The last big house price fall was the early 1990s, and that was painful and utterly toxic for the Conservatives).
Secondly, I think Phillip is misreading the map of the red-to-blue wall. Many of the seats that flipped are towns where housing is already pretty cheap. They're also often places where there's been a change in the age profile; fewer young people and more older people. It's more likely to be built on Brexit and the wider culture war than housebuilding.
Paying a mortgage is less pressure than paying rent, considering it’s cheaper than rent...
Mortgages are cheaper than rents (which is probably a sign that something's gone wrong in the system), but the faff of buying and selling a house is much worse than changing rental property. In that sense, it ties you down more.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
The young vs old split is THE dividing line in our politics these days.
In GE19 Lab got their biggest ever share of the under 40s and their lowest ever share of the over 65s.
What's more of a concern is that his view is probably going to be widely cheered...
Civil war within 10 years. It's inevitable.
Trumpism will endure after Trump as other politicians will adopt the winning formula of socially conservative gobshite racist iconoclasm.
I think the big picture is the white working class are getting angry about loss of (relative) privilege and of the 2 ways to respond to this politically -
(i) Left. Restructure the economy in their favour and against financial elites.
(ii) Right. Divert their grievance towards simplistic racist nationalism.
Number (ii) is by far the easiest to do and to sell - since it is both base and basic - and is thus having more success at the moment.
But the day will come when people wise up and choose (i).
Here's the thing. The democrats have had 60 years to restructure the economy in the favour of the working classes in many big American cities, often with their own president in the Whitehouse.
Have a look at those cities. How do you think its going??
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
There's some truth in it; having a tangible thing like a house that you (in some sense) own changes your relationship with society. It's also a bigger pressure to pay the mortgage every month.
But I do think Phillip is oversimplifying things here. For a start, to make a meaningful dent in affordability by 2024 is going to be difficult to do without screwing over current homeowners. (The last big house price fall was the early 1990s, and that was painful and utterly toxic for the Conservatives).
Secondly, I think Phillip is misreading the map of the red-to-blue wall. Many of the seats that flipped are towns where housing is already pretty cheap. They're also often places where there's been a change in the age profile; fewer young people and more older people. It's more likely to be built on Brexit and the wider culture war than housebuilding.
Paying a mortgage is less pressure than paying rent, considering it’s cheaper than rent...
Mortgages are cheaper than rents (which is probably a sign that something's gone wrong in the system), but the faff of buying and selling a house is much worse than changing rental property. In that sense, it ties you down more.
In a mortgage you'll also not throwing money literally down the drain
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
The young vs old split is THE dividing line in our politics these days.
In GE19 Lab got their biggest ever share of the under 40s and their lowest ever share of the over 65s.
I think.
Not sure but I think the biggest movement in recent years has been Labour losing support amongst older voters rather than becoming more popular with younger voters (relatively)
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
There's some truth in it; having a tangible thing like a house that you (in some sense) own changes your relationship with society. It's also a bigger pressure to pay the mortgage every month.
But I do think Phillip is oversimplifying things here. For a start, to make a meaningful dent in affordability by 2024 is going to be difficult to do without screwing over current homeowners. (The last big house price fall was the early 1990s, and that was painful and utterly toxic for the Conservatives).
Secondly, I think Phillip is misreading the map of the red-to-blue wall. Many of the seats that flipped are towns where housing is already pretty cheap. They're also often places where there's been a change in the age profile; fewer young people and more older people. It's more likely to be built on Brexit and the wider culture war than housebuilding.
Paying a mortgage is less pressure than paying rent, considering it’s cheaper than rent...
Also each payment of a mortgage adds to your equity stake, reduces a debt - whereas rent is equivalent to mortgage interest plus some maintenance. And that maintenance isn't under your control.
The sums don't remotely add up for renting right now if you can buy.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
You personally may or may not but a vast, vast number of your age cohort will. It happens all the time.
Life is complex and what the Tories stand for is good, once people have to balance bills in their own life then they come to understand what the Tories stand for much better.
You think the Tories stand for good stuff, I don't.
You haven't said what you think the Tories stand for.
Their current leader is another bloke from Eton, I thought I didn't have to say much more
Please do.
I'm not sure why where someone's parents chose to send a child to school when they were a child should matter.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
And I've explained to you, you aren't winning my vote.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
2.3 (ave pint) x 5 = 11.5 units. You metabolise approximately 1 unit an hour so you can compute how many units were still in your system. Probably too many to drive. The joys of WFH.
2 in the first hour and 1 per hour after that was the rule of thumb I always thought. Assuming he would have started driving at 8 to make a meeting a 9 he'd have been fine I'd have thought so long as he'd started drinking before 9pm?
The gold standard current advice is to count from when you stop drinking, and not drive till the formula says the alcohol is fully out of your system (though, of course, effective zero does not actually equate to no alcohol whatsoever in the blood)..
So for the units above drunk until 11pm, you can squeak an hour earlier, but best practice is not to drive until 10.30am.
I appreciate that's the advice on a sense of better safe than sorry but when you started and how consistently and quickly you've been drinking realistically matters.
If I were to go out at 7pm for a meal and have 5 pints between 7pm and midnight spaced evenly, then I'd think think it would be safe to drive at 8am the next morning. If I were to go out at 11pm and have 5 pints in an hour ending at midnight, then I would not.
That has always been my thought process. I tend to drink moderately so have no concerns about the next day and I do the same calculation, but would delay driving longer if I have been drinking an unknown quantity of wine at a party.
My only doubts come about when I see these police programmes where someone is stopped with a ridiculous amount of alcohol in their system from the night before. There are three possibilities:
a) they are lying and have been drinking that day b) they should be dead from alcohol poisoning c) the above calculation is wrong
I tend to believe a), but worry I am wrong.
d) They didn't realise how much they'd drank. Easily done especially if someone introduces shots into the round of drinks. It's very easy to consume eg a few Jagerbombs or Tequilas and forget about them. Or if drinking spirits or wine not realise how much is in the drink.
Indeed so. Got the tee shirt.
Taken aback slightly - and sneakily impressed - to hear that you sometimes have 5 pints with your dinner.
I couldn't do that. Or rather I wouldn't enjoy the food much if I did.
I said over an evening starting with dinner and ending at midnight, not over the course of a meal alone.
I won't say what my record for drinking in a night is, but I realised the next day that I could have died from it. The problem with excessive drinking is losing track of what you're doing and going to more excess, especially if you're with drunk and irresponsible people who encourage you to drink more. I wouldn't have driven not just the next day but the day after either.
Most of the time though I'm a boringly responsible drinker, I'd rather be at home and drink a bottle of wine over an evening going from dinner through to cheese and biscuits after than go out and drink to excess nowadays.
I'm conflicted on drink. The world would be better without it but I can't imagine that world.
I think that’s almost certainly not true. It’s just like most things in life. The negative social and health effects are concentrated but the social benefits widely spread.
Sitting around and going "Labour did this" is why the Tories don't win over people under 30. Labour lost power in 2010, you've been in power for 10 years and a lot of us think you've made the country worse.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I would not put money on those planning reforms going through now. There is genuine anger at the way Boris is running things.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
The young vs old split is THE dividing line in our politics these days.
In GE19 Lab got their biggest ever share of the under 40s and their lowest ever share of the over 65s.
I think.
No that was 2017. The turning point for Lab -> Con was 49 in 2017, it went down to 37 or 38 in 2019.
Sitting around and going "Labour did this" is why the Tories don't win over people under 30. Labour lost power in 2010, you've been in power for 10 years and a lot of us think you've made the country worse.
I'm just glad we've moved on from blaming Thatcher.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
The young vs old split is THE dividing line in our politics these days.
In GE19 Lab got their biggest ever share of the under 40s and their lowest ever share of the over 65s.
I think.
No that was 2017. The turning point for Lab -> Con was 49 in 2017, it went down to 37 or 38 in 2019.
Was that turning point due to the collapse of Labour or the gain of the Tories, out of interest?
Sitting around and going "Labour did this" is why the Tories don't win over people under 30. Labour lost power in 2010, you've been in power for 10 years and a lot of us think you've made the country worse.
I'm just glad we've moved on from blaming Thatcher.
We have, haven't we?
I mean you can blame whoever you want, I'm just saying that talking about a Government of 10 years ago isn't what wins over young people. That's my point.
Farron's manifesto was explicitly about trying to get second place instead of labour and apparently people felt that expectation was not enough (despite being hard enough). Swinson then overshot and said she could win outright.
Not sure how they pitch themselves now. Particularly without the Corbyn factor
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
The young vs old split is THE dividing line in our politics these days.
In GE19 Lab got their biggest ever share of the under 40s and their lowest ever share of the over 65s.
I think.
No that was 2017. The turning point for Lab -> Con was 49 in 2017, it went down to 37 or 38 in 2019.
Was that turning point due to the collapse of Labour or the gain of the Tories, out of interest?
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
I never said the Tories are popular with the young, I said they are addressing the concerns of the young and will win them around in the future. Today's young is the future old generations. The idea that today's young, when they are older and wiser, will still magically be voting for Labour is a myth propagated by every generation.
You won't remain young forever. There are five years between every General Election normally, that is a pretty long time. Your under thirties of today could be mid-thirties by the next General Election. The mid-thirties of today could be in their forties next time - and so on. And they will change accordingly and there'll be a new generation voting for the first time.
I'm a Millenial, just, whose first vote was for Blair but unless there's an early election this last election was my last election in my thirties. By 2024 I'll be in my forties. The generation of Millenials who voted first time around for Blair - are now starting to vote more for the Tories than for Labour. I don't know how old exactly you are but I'm guessing you're a decade younger - so in a decade's time, or two General Elections from now, you'll see a lot more of your own cohort considering their voting differently. You may or may not be one of them. Probably as there will be a swing to Labour inevitably you'll be less likely to change your mind prior to Labour being in office but after Labour have been in office it will be your Generation that swings hardest to kick them out of it.
As for the issues that you chose that represent what you dislike - "Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis." - Labour were behind all of those. It was Labour's overspending that caused austerity. It was Labour's messing around with the EU Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty that led to Brexit. It was Labour that introduced Tuition Fees. It was Labour that created the housing crisis and under Labour home ownership rates for the young collapsed.
To blame Labour when they haven't been in Government for 10 years is one of your problems Philip.
You could have resolved these issues, you chose not to. Not my problem.
The Tories have resolved or are resolving the problems.
Your issues: Austerity - dealt with. The 10% deficit that Brown bequeathed was just 1.2% prior to this recession, which is why we're in much better shape for this recession and can afford to borrow better than we could afford to do so last time when we went into the last recession overspending. Brexit - dealt with, will be fully dealt with by the end of this year let alone the end of this Parliament. Student loans being jacked up - happened every couple of years in the decade 2000-2010. Hasn't happened again since 2010. Housing crisis - being dealt with. Home ownership rates are going up, house prices have stabilised, wage-to-house price ratios (which is what matters most) were going back down pre-crash. The government is continuing to make this a top priority to continue to deal with it.
So here is my question to the "Trump has a better chance than you think you are letting your emotions cloud your predictions" crowd.
What were you saying in 2018 before the midterms?
Because I distinctly remember a cadre of posters who said you couldn't trust the polls, that the polls would tighten by election day, that Dem policy X would be really unpopular with swing voters (aleways, conicidentally a policy that they personally disagreed with), that there would be shy Trump voters, that there would be voters who weren't concerned with Trump so Trump's popularity wouldn't be an issue, that the Dem vote would be in all the wrong places, that the Dems were complacent etc.
The Dems then got their largest increase in seats in 44 years.
A very good point that's difficult to answer. I think the dems were a much nicer lot before Pelosi became speaker. And of course there was no BLM in 2018. But You have a very good point.
Pelosi, speaker 2007-2011, obviously a terrible drag on Dem presidential ambitions.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
The young vs old split is THE dividing line in our politics these days.
In GE19 Lab got their biggest ever share of the under 40s and their lowest ever share of the over 65s.
I think.
No that was 2017. The turning point for Lab -> Con was 49 in 2017, it went down to 37 or 38 in 2019.
Was that turning point due to the collapse of Labour or the gain of the Tories, out of interest?
Both.
I think therefore we can make an assumption that age is likely to go up again as Corbyn has now gone. Perhaps not to 49 again.
So here is my question to the "Trump has a better chance than you think you are letting your emotions cloud your predictions" crowd.
What were you saying in 2018 before the midterms?
Because I distinctly remember a cadre of posters who said you couldn't trust the polls, that the polls would tighten by election day, that Dem policy X would be really unpopular with swing voters (aleways, conicidentally a policy that they personally disagreed with), that there would be shy Trump voters, that there would be voters who weren't concerned with Trump so Trump's popularity wouldn't be an issue, that the Dem vote would be in all the wrong places, that the Dems were complacent etc.
The Dems then got their largest increase in seats in 44 years.
Trump is 2.16 when the polls/models price him at over 3.
So to the extent that sentiment and emotion is clouding judgment it is PRO Trump sentiment and emotion.
Government is doing the right thing in building more houses and has my full support for that. Hopefully any NIMBYs opposed to it are driven off - this is precisely the sort of thing a government with an 80 seat majority should be doing.
Hopefully if Boris can deal with housing properly you might even consider voting for the Tories in the future . . .
No chance of voting Tory.
Even if Tory planning reforms mean you're able to get on the housing ladder?
We'll see. People change, a few months ago you were willing to support Jeremy Corbyn and Momentumites, now you want him expelled and are considering Ed Davey positively. Once you've got a mortgage who knows what you might think then?
The best way for Tories to win your vote in the future though is to earn it. To demonstrate why Toryism is good for the country and good for you and your family.
I won't be voting Tory.
The reason I vote for a party is not because of housing alone, I don't like what the Tories stand for.
To make out like housing is the reason I vote Labour is why you keep failing to win over people like me I'm afraid.
And just what do the Tories stand for in your eyes?
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
The Tories aren't winning over people under 30 at all, this is a complete fiction. We've had this argument before.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
The Tories have almost never been popular with the under 30s throughout history. The one exception was 1987 I think.
Spot on, I was contending with Philip's idea they're somehow popular with the young, that's all.
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
I never said the Tories are popular with the young, I said they are addressing the concerns of the young and will win them around in the future. Today's young is the future old generations. The idea that today's young, when they are older and wiser, will still magically be voting for Labour is a myth propagated by every generation.
You won't remain young forever. There are five years between every General Election normally, that is a pretty long time. Your under thirties of today could be mid-thirties by the next General Election. The mid-thirties of today could be in their forties next time - and so on. And they will change accordingly and there'll be a new generation voting for the first time.
I'm a Millenial, just, whose first vote was for Blair but unless there's an early election this last election was my last election in my thirties. By 2024 I'll be in my forties. The generation of Millenials who voted first time around for Blair - are now starting to vote more for the Tories than for Labour. I don't know how old exactly you are but I'm guessing you're a decade younger - so in a decade's time, or two General Elections from now, you'll see a lot more of your own cohort considering their voting differently. You may or may not be one of them. Probably as there will be a swing to Labour inevitably you'll be less likely to change your mind prior to Labour being in office but after Labour have been in office it will be your Generation that swings hardest to kick them out of it.
As for the issues that you chose that represent what you dislike - "Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis." - Labour were behind all of those. It was Labour's overspending that caused austerity. It was Labour's messing around with the EU Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty that led to Brexit. It was Labour that introduced Tuition Fees. It was Labour that created the housing crisis and under Labour home ownership rates for the young collapsed.
To blame Labour when they haven't been in Government for 10 years is one of your problems Philip.
You could have resolved these issues, you chose not to. Not my problem.
The Tories have resolved or are resolving the problems.
Your issues: Austerity - dealt with. The 10% deficit that Brown bequeathed was just 1.2% prior to this recession, which is why we're in much better shape for this recession and can afford to borrow better than we could afford to do so last time when we went into the last recession overspending. Brexit - dealt with, will be fully dealt with by the end of this year let alone the end of this Parliament. Student loans being jacked up - happened every couple of years in the decade 2000-2010. Hasn't happened again since 2010. Housing crisis - being dealt with. Home ownership rates are going up, house prices have stabilised, wage-to-house price ratios (which is what matters most) were going back down pre-crash. The government is continuing to make this a top priority to continue to deal with it.
Austerity has not been "dealt with". You completely screwed up the public sector.
Student loan still impacts me today, come back when you've reduced the cost.
Brexit is something young people don't want.
Housing crisis is not being dealt with for the under 30s, come back when most of us own houses
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
And I've explained to you, you aren't winning my vote.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
You individually may or may not, your generation collectively will. Happens every generation.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
And I've explained to you, you aren't winning my vote.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
You individually will not, your generation collectively will. Happens every decade.
I have owned a house for over 2 years and have no inclination to start voting for the Conservative Party. I may have become slightly more small “c” conservative now that I have an asset to protect, but the Conservative Party is now as radical as the Corbynite left.
Philip sort of has a point on ownership, that people that own housing tend to the Tory Party. I'd be interested to see if that is the same in the under 30s or not.
My problem with the bulk of his point is this idea that I will become a Tory because I now have a mortgage. My ideological position is the same as it was last year, I was and still am a social democrat.
It's all slightly pointless, the Tories are not actively courting the under 30 vote and I don't blame them
I would put it the other-way round. Someone who votes tory or is tending towards the tories over time, is very likely to be the kind of person who aims to move onto the property ladder as quickly as possible. Meaning that in home-owners under 30 are much more likely to be Tory voters than renters under 30.
There are a significant number of LD and Lab voters who end up buying property, but most do not see this as a priority.
Sitting around and going "Labour did this" is why the Tories don't win over people under 30. Labour lost power in 2010, you've been in power for 10 years and a lot of us think you've made the country worse.
The Tories almost never win people under 30, the last time they won 25 to 34s was 2010 and they still lost 18-24s, they have not won 18 to 24s since 1983
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
And I've explained to you, you aren't winning my vote.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
You individually will not, your generation collectively will. Happens every decade.
I have owned a house for over 2 years and have no inclination to start voting for the Conservative Party. I may have become slightly more small “c” conservative now that I have an asset to protect, but the Conservative Party is now as radical as the Corbynite left.
Philip sort of has a point on ownership, that people that own housing tend to the Tory Party. I'd be interested to see if that is the same in the under 30s or not.
My problem with the bulk of his point is this idea that I will become a Tory because I now have a mortgage. My ideological position is the same as it was last year, I was and still am a social democrat.
It's all slightly pointless, the Tories are not actively courting the under 30 vote and I don't blame them
I would put it the other-way round. Someone who votes tory or is tending towards the tories over time, is very likely to be the kind of person who aims to move onto the property ladder as quickly as possible. Meaning that in home-owners under 30 are much more likely to be Tory voters than renters under 30.
There are a significant number of LD and Lab voters who end up buying property, but most do not see this as a priority.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
And I've explained to you, you aren't winning my vote.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
You individually will not, your generation collectively will. Happens every decade.
But you said me, you were wrong.
No I did not.
Okay then, well I'm wrong then. But in my case my vote isn't going to change.
When you make inroads into Labour support of 50%+ amongst the under 30s, then you can pat yourself on the back
Sitting around and going "Labour did this" is why the Tories don't win over people under 30. Labour lost power in 2010, you've been in power for 10 years and a lot of us think you've made the country worse.
The Tories almost never win people under 30, the last time they won 25 to 34s was 2010 and they still lost 18-24s, they have not won 18 to 24s since 1983
So here is my question to the "Trump has a better chance than you think you are letting your emotions cloud your predictions" crowd.
What were you saying in 2018 before the midterms?
Because I distinctly remember a cadre of posters who said you couldn't trust the polls, that the polls would tighten by election day, that Dem policy X would be really unpopular with swing voters (aleways, conicidentally a policy that they personally disagreed with), that there would be shy Trump voters, that there would be voters who weren't concerned with Trump so Trump's popularity wouldn't be an issue, that the Dem vote would be in all the wrong places, that the Dems were complacent etc.
The Dems then got their largest increase in seats in 44 years.
A very good point that's difficult to answer. I think the dems were a much nicer lot before Pelosi became speaker. And of course there was no BLM in 2018. But You have a very good point.
Pelosi, speaker 2007-2011, obviously a terrible drag on Dem presidential ambitions.
Yep good point, but different ballgame when its Trump. He has brought out the worst in the dems, undoubtedly.
My feeling is that Ed will not talk about Brexit, which is a good move.
Probably right of Labour economically, pro PR and pro social justice, so basically Clegg again?
To the right of Labour economically?? At the last election as shadow chancellor he was to the right of the Tories! (Personally I quite liked it but its a minority niche, no doubt about it.)
Big chance for the LDs to own the space of fiscal responsibility. Faced with a Tory Party taking the knee to the Magic Money Tree and a Labour Party scared to tax the middle class, the LDs can hoover up the votes of all those people for whom sound money matters and who are not happy to foist the bills of today onto the citizens of tomorrow and next week.
How many votes are we talking about nationally? Ooo, well into 4 figures?
As a Lib Dem this is both personally appealling but also painfully true.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
You personally may or may not but a vast, vast number of your age cohort will. It happens all the time.
Life is complex and what the Tories stand for is good, once people have to balance bills in their own life then they come to understand what the Tories stand for much better.
You think the Tories stand for good stuff, I don't.
You haven't said what you think the Tories stand for.
Their current leader is another bloke from Eton, I thought I didn't have to say much more
Please do.
I'm not sure why where someone's parents chose to send a child to school when they were a child should matter.
You say that as if it is a point in your favour. Surely the statistics show that it matters very much indeed to the people who decide who is to be leader of the Tory party?
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
And I've explained to you, you aren't winning my vote.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
You individually will not, your generation collectively will. Happens every decade.
But you said me, you were wrong.
No I did not.
Okay then, well I'm wrong then. But in my case my vote isn't going to change.
When you make inroads into Labour support of 50%+ amongst the under 30s, then you can pat yourself on the back
If that's happening the Tories will be on course for a 100, 150+ majority.
To me it seems odd that if I manage to get a mortgage I'll somehow think differently, seems to suggest again - that I vote entirely based on housing. I don't.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
It's the other way around. If you *can't* get a mortgage then you will to some extent blame the government, and be less likely to want to re-elect them.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
To win over people in my age group - not me but others - they need to get millions of the under 30s on the housing ladder and that means making housing affordable.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
You're not being ignored, your concerns are already being dealt with.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
And I've explained to you, you aren't winning my vote.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
You individually will not, your generation collectively will. Happens every decade.
But you said me, you were wrong.
No I did not.
Okay then, well I'm wrong then. But in my case my vote isn't going to change.
When you make inroads into Labour support of 50%+ amongst the under 30s, then you can pat yourself on the back
If that's happening the Tories will be on course for a 100, 150+ majority.
Well I voted for Davey and with my track record I am afraid we are:
DOOMED!
He could make a decent Deputy Prime Minister in the next Tory LD coalition 😜
While I certainly favour the Conservatives losing their majority, in the circumstances of a hung parliament it isn't going to be a Tory PM.
It depends upon the numbers in a Hung Parliament. If its 2010 or 2017 style maths then it certainly could be a Tory PM again. Ultimately it will always depend upon the numbers.
It won't be, even the DUP would now prefer EEA UK wide and Starmer to Boris and a border in the Irish Sea and Davey will also go with Starmer and EEA over Boris and hard Brexit.
Unless there is a Brexit Party MP in 2024 if the Tories do not get a majority again no other party will prop up the Tories
You're always fighting the last battle. Nobody is arguing about EEA right now, by 2024 this will be history. What matters is what people will be seeking to do in 2024-29, not Europe.
It will still be an issue, unless we go to EEA and/or a Customs Union then there will be a border in the Irish Sea so the DUP will vote for Starmer over Boris.
The LDs will always vote for a softer Brexit over a hard Brexit so that means they will not back Boris either and nor will the SNP.
As I said if the Tories do not win a majority in 2024 then Starmer will be PM
The LDs nor anybody else will be voting for Brexit in 2024. Transition ends this year, not in five years time.
EEA is still Brexit, just the softest Brexit and the LDs will always vote for Starmer and that over WTO terms Brexit with Boris or even a FTA which is still a hard Brexit
Which would have been relevant at the last election pre-Brexit or even if there was one now during transition, it is utterly irrelevant come 2024 unless a party decides to revisit the terms of Brexit - which none are showing any signs of doing yet.
By 2024 this debate will be over, just like how Blair didn't revisit many things bitterly debated under Thatcher.
All the opposition parties voted down the Withdrawal Agreements of both Boris and May, all bar the DUP voted to stay in the Single Market and/or Customs Union and all bar the DUP voted against No Deal.
However now the Boris Withdrawal Agreement and the border in the Irish Sea has passed the DUP have said they would vote for EEA for the whole UK rather than separate Northern Ireland from GB
Yes and Labour voted down privatisation and reforms to curb union powers in the 80s - doesn't mean that when Blair came to power that he reversed those decisions. Blair didn't spend his time in office reversing Thatcher's reforms, he came to power with his own agenda and his own reforms.
When it comes to 2024 then as far as Brexit is concerned it will be already done and a case of "what is done, is done". Starmer could come to power seeking to spend his time refighting old battles and undoing what Boris had done - or far more likely he would if he wins come to power with his own agenda and his own issues just like Blair did. Which is unlikely to be EEA or anything Europe related.
If WTO Terms Brexit or a Boris FTA with the EU ends up fantastically for the UK then Starmer will likely back it, however the Tories will likely be re elected anyway.
If however as is likely we are on WTO terms in 2024 and if it turns out badly then Starmer will obviously back a softer Brexit and probably EEA
Comments
However now the Boris Withdrawal Agreement and the border in the Irish Sea has passed the DUP have said they would vote for EEA for the whole UK rather than separate Northern Ireland from GB
The Tories are constantly winning over people like you I'm afraid. Every single election through time people who formerly voted Labour switch to the Tories - far more than happens the other way around. The reason for that is people come to understand better what the Tories stand for - and see it as good - rather than the cartoon caricature of what people mistakenly think the Tories stand for when they're young and simplistic.
What were you saying in 2018 before the midterms?
Because I distinctly remember a cadre of posters who said you couldn't trust the polls, that the polls would tighten by election day, that Dem policy X would be really unpopular with swing voters (aleways, conicidentally a policy that they personally disagreed with), that there would be shy Trump voters, that there would be voters who weren't concerned with Trump so Trump's popularity wouldn't be an issue, that the Dem vote would be in all the wrong places, that the Dems were complacent etc.
The Dems then got their largest increase in seats in 44 years.
This of course presumes the Tories manage to make housing affordable for people under 30, only got to take what is it, 10+ years off the average home ownership rate?
Good luck is all I can say
If it is an issue in 2024, it is hard to conclude though that it's gone well. Otherwise, why would we still be talking about it?
At the same time we need to put funding and incentives in place so that technology can develop to reduce emissions from construction (concrete), cargo ships, agriculture, etc, so that they will be ready for mass adoption once we've finished eliminating gas from the electricity grid.
The target needs to be "A million new homes before the next election", that's why the planning reform is so desperately needed.
The one group Labour dominates in is the under 30s.
The Tories represent everything that has gone wrong with this country in my recent memory.
Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis.
They split the country down the middle and divided us in two, I will never forgive them for that, especially Cameron who ran away.
And Boris Johnson is another bloke from Eton, enough said
When it comes to 2024 then as far as Brexit is concerned it will be already done and a case of "what is done, is done". Starmer could come to power seeking to spend his time refighting old battles and undoing what Boris had done - or far more likely he would if he wins come to power with his own agenda and his own issues just like Blair did. Which is unlikely to be EEA or anything Europe related.
I'm not going to vote Tory because I got a mortgage.
But I don't see how they do that without going after house prices, which pisses off their older voters.
Let's be honest, we will get ignored because we don't vote.
Life is complex and what the Tories stand for is good, once people have to balance bills in their own life then they come to understand what the Tories stand for much better.
https://smarkets.com/event/4572998/politics/world/world-leaders/world-leaders
Disclosure I've put 50p on it through my 'see how far i can take a tenner' book!
If the party numbers are like 2010 then yes, you are right. How realistic is it that the Liberal Democrats get over 50 seats though?
I think there is an ingrained hatred of the Tories with the young.
Philip is sort of right on housing for others (not me), that making housing genuinely affordable and obtainable by those under 30 would get them more votes - but they'd have to do a lot of work in five years to make anything like the progress they need to make.
For me, getting a mortgage is not going to change my vote. For others, it can and does, I get that and I agree.
But it doesn't get the Tories enough voters in the under 30 category for it to matter, Labour gets what 50%+ of the vote?
My point was that to increase their voteshare with the under 30s, housing would be a big part of it. But achievement would be massively increasing ownership and to do that would mean house prices coming down.
They aren't going to bother, because we don't vote and older people do. That's reality.
And saying "the average age is coming down" doesn't help people now, it means nothing. If by 2024 the average age is below 30 they'll get more votes. I don't see it though.
But we'll see.
But I do think Phillip is oversimplifying things here. For a start, to make a meaningful dent in affordability by 2024 is going to be difficult to do without screwing over current homeowners. (The last big house price fall was the early 1990s, and that was painful and utterly toxic for the Conservatives).
Secondly, I think Phillip is misreading the map of the red-to-blue wall. Many of the seats that flipped are towns where housing is already pretty cheap. They're also often places where there's been a change in the age profile; fewer young people and more older people. It's more likely to be built on Brexit and the wider culture war than housebuilding.
I suspect a decent 60%+ of the electorate think much the same as me.
Johnson surely cannot run in 2024 on "get Brexit done" again
My problem with the bulk of his point is this idea that I will become a Tory because I now have a mortgage. My ideological position is the same as it was last year, I was and still am a social democrat.
It's all slightly pointless, the Tories are not actively courting the under 30 vote and I don't blame them
The group which the tories did "win over" in 1987 were the council house tennents who had bought their houses for a song. Not many people in this group were under 30.
You won't remain young forever. There are five years between every General Election normally, that is a pretty long time. Your under thirties of today could be mid-thirties by the next General Election. The mid-thirties of today could be in their forties next time - and so on. And they will change accordingly and there'll be a new generation voting for the first time.
I'm a Millenial, just, whose first vote was for Blair but unless there's an early election this last election was my last election in my thirties. By 2024 I'll be in my forties. The generation of Millenials who voted first time around for Blair - are now starting to vote more for the Tories than for Labour. I don't know how old exactly you are but I'm guessing you're a decade younger - so in a decade's time, or two General Elections from now, you'll see a lot more of your own cohort considering their voting differently. You may or may not be one of them. Probably as there will be a swing to Labour inevitably you'll be less likely to change your mind prior to Labour being in office but after Labour have been in office it will be your Generation that swings hardest to kick them out of it.
As for the issues that you chose that represent what you dislike - "Austerity, Brexit, student loans being jacked up, housing crisis." - Labour were behind all of those. It was Labour's overspending that caused austerity. It was Labour's messing around with the EU Constitution and the Lisbon Treaty that led to Brexit. It was Labour that introduced Tuition Fees. It was Labour that created the housing crisis and under Labour home ownership rates for the young collapsed.
I...agree with Matt Hancock
You could have resolved these issues, you chose not to. Not my problem.
While Davey will be biege and rubbish, Moran would have been absolutely adrift from reality ...
In GE19 Lab got their biggest ever share of the under 40s and their lowest ever share of the over 65s.
I think.
Have a look at those cities. How do you think its going??
I don't know what Starmer's ratings are with the young.
It was under Labour that house prices rose and that ownership rates fell. Under the Tories house prices have plateaued and home ownership rates are increasing once more in recent years. The recession may not help that this year but Boris is trying to deal with it - whether you vote or not.
Because and this is what you seem to be struggling with, much like HYUFD, the next election won't be a carbon copy of the last one. The next election will be in five years time. In five years time everyone who voted last time will either be dead, or five years older and wiser.
The parties need to think not how do we win your vote last time, but how do we get it next time.
The sums don't remotely add up for renting right now if you can buy.
I'm not sure why where someone's parents chose to send a child to school when they were a child should matter.
A mortgage is not going to change it either, you seem to think my voting habit is entirely based around housing.
We have, haven't we?
Not sure how they pitch themselves now. Particularly without the Corbyn factor
Your issues:
Austerity - dealt with. The 10% deficit that Brown bequeathed was just 1.2% prior to this recession, which is why we're in much better shape for this recession and can afford to borrow better than we could afford to do so last time when we went into the last recession overspending.
Brexit - dealt with, will be fully dealt with by the end of this year let alone the end of this Parliament.
Student loans being jacked up - happened every couple of years in the decade 2000-2010. Hasn't happened again since 2010.
Housing crisis - being dealt with. Home ownership rates are going up, house prices have stabilised, wage-to-house price ratios (which is what matters most) were going back down pre-crash. The government is continuing to make this a top priority to continue to deal with it.
So to the extent that sentiment and emotion is clouding judgment it is PRO Trump sentiment and emotion.
Student loan still impacts me today, come back when you've reduced the cost.
Brexit is something young people don't want.
Housing crisis is not being dealt with for the under 30s, come back when most of us own houses
There are a significant number of LD and Lab voters who end up buying property, but most do not see this as a priority.
When you make inroads into Labour support of 50%+ amongst the under 30s, then you can pat yourself on the back
Matt Hancock for Tory leader
If however as is likely we are on WTO terms in 2024 and if it turns out badly then Starmer will obviously back a softer Brexit and probably EEA
Shaun Bailey is the answer