If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
The only extraordinary thing is that anybody at all would vote for what is happening in American cities right now. Or what has happened in American cities under democrat control for decades.
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
Yes, not sure I understand that really, as I would think Trump would agree with all of your stated views. You are most definitely Trumpian, and were you American I am sure you would be enthusiastically voting for him.
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
The only extraordinary thing is that anybody at all would vote for what is happening in American cities right now. Or what has happened in American cities under democrat control for decades.
Things don't look great in NYC; it sounds like people are voting with their feet.
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
Their model gives Biden a 70% chance of winning - i.e. according to them he is well over twice as likely to win as Trump at 30%.
Which in their header they denote as Biden being slightly favoured to win.
Ms Clinton was 95% likely to win in 2016 and still lost. A small change in fortunes can turn a 70% chance of winning into a losing position, so maybe it makes sense for them to frame it in that way.
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
The only extraordinary thing is that anybody at all would vote for what is happening in American cities right now. Or what has happened in American cities under democrat control for decades.
Things don't look great in NYC; it sounds like people are voting with their feet.
New York was an amazing city. I used to go twice a year for business. When I saw that video of what Manhattan has turned into, I was totally shocked. I thought the pace was indestructible.
Its partly covid of course. But COVID does not cause block after block of boarded up shops.
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism, particularly in the police
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
In 2016 Trafalgar Group was the only state pollster that had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, they cannot be ignored
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
The problem is that he seems deranged, and becoming more so the longer he is in office, which is a bit of a worry when he is the most powerful person in the world.
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism.
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him however given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
I sense Trump isn;t really a permanent tariff supporter. He uses tariffs strategically. And actually, it hasn't worked that badly. The Chinese are back at the table. Meanwhile the Russians are sweating badly in my view. Putin's move to 'silence' the opposition leader is not a move from strength.
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
The only extraordinary thing is that anybody at all would vote for what is happening in American cities right now. Or what has happened in American cities under democrat control for decades.
Things don't look great in NYC; it sounds like people are voting with their feet.
New York was an amazing city. I used to go twice a year for business. When I saw that video of what Manhattan has turned into, I was totally shocked. I thought the pace was indestructible.
Its partly covid of course. But COVID does not cause block after block of boarded up shops.
That's called looting
Er, Covid does cause boarded up shops, plenty of premises in Glasgow boarded up to keep them secure during lockdown. Though maybe they were fearful of Wokists going on the rampage in their vendetta against statchoos.
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism.
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him however given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
I sense Trump isn;t really a permanent tariff supporter. He uses tariffs strategically. And actually, it hasn't worked that badly. The Chinese are back at the table. Meanwhile the Russians are sweating badly in my view. Putin's move to 'silence' the opposition leader is not a move from strength.
There is no strategy behind this. Trump is largely motivated by machismo and trying to get even on long term personal grudges. I suspect his dislike of China is not to do with their oppressive authoritarian government (which he no doubt admires) and is more likely to be something personal, such as them having refused his building of a hotel or suchlike.
GERs day when Kibble Kev tries to forget he said this.
“Richard finished his piece by saying they can’t tell us what an independent Scotland’s finances would look like. That is, of course, absolutely true.
What the GERS figures do tell us is, historically, how do Scotland’s revenue and expenditure figures look as an integral part of the UK.
You said – and it’s a critical phrase – ‘the purpose for which it’s intended’. Nobody suggests that the GERS figures show what a future independent Scotland would look like.”
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism.
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him however given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
I sense Trump isn;t really a permanent tariff supporter. He uses tariffs strategically. And actually, it hasn't worked that badly. The Chinese are back at the table. Meanwhile the Russians are sweating badly in my view. Putin's move to 'silence' the opposition leader is not a move from strength.
Incidentally, there is no evidence of Putin "sweating". On the contrary, thanks to the useful idiots in populist and nationalist parties in the West he has achieved many long term goals. America has a weaker foreign policy thanks to Trump allowing that to be so, thereby enabling expansion of Russian interest, and the EU is substantially weakened by Brexit. The UK is likely to be further weakened by its breakup which was enabled by Boris Johnson, who has to be the most inept leader Britain has had in centuries. Putin has many reasons to be cheerful. As he is leader of Russia for life, and probably the richest man in the world, he has lots to be smug about.
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
In 2016 Trafalgar Group was the only state pollster that had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, they cannot be ignored
A bit disingenuous of you: they weren't the closest pollster to the actual result in either state. I don't see any reason to give them any more weight than any other poll.
This is a great market, lots of dumb money, including people who lucked into a win last time and now think they're smart.
A good example is that Trump was about 12/1 to win the popular vote a couple of weeks ago IIRC. That was always bound to come down over time, and it's now 5.5.
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism, particularly in the police
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him however given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
He has not started WW3 and is not forever invading the Middle East this is true. Indeed given his (imo very acceptable) policy of avoiding foreign military adventures one wonders why he has spent record sums on the military. Is it because he thinks there's votes in it? Or is it because he likes the idea of owning oodles of high grade killing kit and having lots of soldiers and sailors under his command even though they have bugger all to do? Bit of both maybe.
And you sell him short on racism. He has not failed to do much about it. He has stoked it and dog whistled to its adherents at every opportunity.
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
In 2016 Trafalgar Group was the only state pollster that had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, they cannot be ignored
Correct, you do not ignore them. You number crunch how reliable they have been at polling in the last 10 or so years and then add them to all the other polls which have also been weighted in a similar way to get a weighted poll of polls average.
Their model gives Biden a 70% chance of winning - i.e. according to them he is well over twice as likely to win as Trump at 30%.
Which in their header they denote as Biden being slightly favoured to win.
Ms Clinton was 95% likely to win in 2016 and still lost. A small change in fortunes can turn a 70% chance of winning into a losing position, so maybe it makes sense for them to frame it in that way.
Sure. But 55% is slightly favoured. 70% is clearly favoured.
I sense it's arse covering and I am marking them down for it.
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
In 2016 Trafalgar Group was the only state pollster that had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, they cannot be ignored
A bit disingenuous of you: they weren't the closest pollster to the actual result in either state. I don't see any reason to give them any more weight than any other poll.
They were the only pollsters who had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, without those states and Wisconsin Trump would not have won the election.
Obviously other polls must be looked at too, I am just saying do not ignore Trafalgar Group
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism, particularly in the police
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him however given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
He has not started WW3 and is not forever invading the Middle East this is true. Indeed given his (imo very acceptable) policy of avoiding foreign military adventures one wonders why he has spent record sums on the military. Is it because he thinks there's votes in it? Or is it because he likes the idea of owning oodles of high grade killing kit and having lots of soldiers and sailors under his command even though they have bugger all to do? Bit of both maybe.
And you sell him short on racism. He has not failed to do much about it. He has stoked it and dog whistled to its adherents at every opportunity.
He has spent more on the military mainly as it enhances his status as POTUS and they vote for him.
This is a great market, lots of dumb money, including people who lucked into a win last time and now think they're smart.
A good example is that Trump was about 12/1 to win the popular vote a couple of weeks ago IIRC. That was always bound to come down over time, and it's now 5.5.
That’s a lay, surely? Even if half of California and NY move out, Biden’s going to pile up a few million meaningless votes in those states, maybe even more than Hilary did.
Trump won last time by a series of small wins in key states, IMO a win for him this time looks similar, can’t see him winning the popular vote.
I'm not sure I would agree with Mike's statement that Kamala Harris will outshine Pence. Yes, he is boring and she is an ex-prosecutor but Harris' performances in the debates were mixed. For God's sake, she got done over by Tulsi Gabbard....
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
In 2016 Trafalgar Group was the only state pollster that had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, they cannot be ignored
Correct, you do not ignore them. You number crunch how reliable they have been at polling in the last 10 or so years and then add them to all the other polls which have also been weighted in a similar way to get a weighted poll of polls average.
Yet in 2016 it was not the poll average that was correct in Michigan and Pennsylvania, that had Hillary ahead in both states, it was Trafalgar Group which had Trump ahead there
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
In 2016 Trafalgar Group was the only state pollster that had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, they cannot be ignored
Correct, you do not ignore them. You number crunch how reliable they have been at polling in the last 10 or so years and then add them to all the other polls which have also been weighted in a similar way to get a weighted poll of polls average.
You would look at the performance of state polls last time and, given how off many were, discount them with a large pinch of salt unless you can show something has fundamentally changed with their methodology to make them more accurate. That is not being pro-Trump, that is just looking at the evidence from last time.
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism.
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him however given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
I sense Trump isn;t really a permanent tariff supporter. He uses tariffs strategically. And actually, it hasn't worked that badly. The Chinese are back at the table. Meanwhile the Russians are sweating badly in my view. Putin's move to 'silence' the opposition leader is not a move from strength.
Incidentally, there is no evidence of Putin "sweating". On the contrary, thanks to the useful idiots in populist and nationalist parties in the West he has achieved many long term goals. America has a weaker foreign policy thanks to Trump allowing that to be so, thereby enabling expansion of Russian interest, and the EU is substantially weakened by Brexit. The UK is likely to be further weakened by its breakup which was enabled by Boris Johnson, who has to be the most inept leader Britain has had in centuries. Putin has many reasons to be cheerful. As he is leader of Russia for life, and probably the richest man in the world, he has lots to be smug about.
Of course it wasn't Boris and the conservatives who were astonishingly weak and ambivalent in the face of blatant Russian aggression in Salisbury. It was the pro-EU, pro-remain labour party.
and it isn;t brexit Britain that gives billions in hard currency to Putin in exchange for gas supplies, and then shirks its Nato spedning responsibilities even though its a very rich nation.
You don't have to be woke to realise that Trump is a repulsive psychopath
Something on which we can agree.
My bottom line is that the US nuclear arsenal is not safe in Trump's hands. So to help me sleep at night, I am rooting for Biden all the way.
I don;t know where you get this notion from. Trump's foreign policy is one of retreat from the international stage.
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Yes, I get why US liberals hate Trump's domestic policy, his anti immigrant, anti PC rhetoric and promise to build walls with Mexico and his failure to do much about racism.
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him however given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
I sense Trump isn;t really a permanent tariff supporter. He uses tariffs strategically. And actually, it hasn't worked that badly. The Chinese are back at the table. Meanwhile the Russians are sweating badly in my view. Putin's move to 'silence' the opposition leader is not a move from strength.
Incidentally, there is no evidence of Putin "sweating". On the contrary, thanks to the useful idiots in populist and nationalist parties in the West he has achieved many long term goals. America has a weaker foreign policy thanks to Trump allowing that to be so, thereby enabling expansion of Russian interest, and the EU is substantially weakened by Brexit. The UK is likely to be further weakened by its breakup which was enabled by Boris Johnson, who has to be the most inept leader Britain has had in centuries. Putin has many reasons to be cheerful. As he is leader of Russia for life, and probably the richest man in the world, he has lots to be smug about.
Of course it wasn't Boris and the conservatives who were astonishingly weak and ambivalent in the face of blatant Russian aggression in Salisbury. It was the pro-EU, pro-remain labour party.
and it isn;t brexit Britain that gives billions in hard currency to Putin in exchange for gas supplies, and then shirks its Nato spending responsibilities even though its a very rich nation.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
So, we think people will vote Trump to protect them from civil disorder that has escalated and has been escalated on his watch?
Obama made the point in a recent interview about how the US President has limited powers when it comes to many things, including what happens in the streets. So how does Obama get a free pass, yet it is all Trump's fault?
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I voted for Davey. But there has been a lot of noise and apparent movement towards Moran as the contest has dragged on. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upset TBH
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I voted for Davey. But there has been a lot of noise and apparent movement towards Moran as the contest has dragged on. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upset TBH
If it is Moran the LDs can probably kiss goodbye to winning more Tory Remainers in 2024, only Davey is really likely to get them. Tory Remainers would likely even prefer Starmer to Moran
If Trump wins one of the main reasons will be suburban voters looking at the chaos in a big city near them and thinking "we don't want that to happen here".
The only extraordinary thing is that anybody at all would vote for what is happening in American cities right now. Or what has happened in American cities under democrat control for decades.
Things don't look great in NYC; it sounds like people are voting with their feet.
New York was an amazing city. I used to go twice a year for business. When I saw that video of what Manhattan has turned into, I was totally shocked. I thought the pace was indestructible.
Its partly covid of course. But COVID does not cause block after block of boarded up shops.
That's called looting
Er, Covid does cause boarded up shops, plenty of premises in Glasgow boarded up to keep them secure during lockdown. Though maybe they were fearful of Wokists going on the rampage in their vendetta against statchoos.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
World class mug celebrates living in a nation of world class mugs.
GERs day when Kibble Kev tries to forget he said this.
“Richard finished his piece by saying they can’t tell us what an independent Scotland’s finances would look like. That is, of course, absolutely true.
What the GERS figures do tell us is, historically, how do Scotland’s revenue and expenditure figures look as an integral part of the UK.
You said – and it’s a critical phrase – ‘the purpose for which it’s intended’. Nobody suggests that the GERS figures show what a future independent Scotland would look like.”
Quite true. But the SNP won't tell us how we get from here to there (and they're very coy about what "there" involves, details like "currency" and so on.)
The people of Scotland deserve more than "It'll be alright on the night".
GERS takes the current structure of UK Government reserved taxation and spending as given. If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices (good or bad) about the type of economy and society that we live in, then a set of accounts based upon the current constitutional settlement and policy priorities will look different to the long-term finances of an independent Scotland. Put simply, it’s not possible to run structural deficits of this scale over the long-run (even if you believe that a country’s central bank can simply print money to pay for it…btw, they can’t)
But GERS does provide an accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2020. So, in doing so, today’s numbers set the starting point for a discussion about the choices and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating independence or new fiscal arrangements. It’s not enough to say ‘everything will be fine’ or ‘look at this country, they can run a sensible fiscal balance so why can’t Scotland?’. Concrete proposals and ideas are needed.
So, we think people will vote Trump to protect them from civil disorder that has escalated and has been escalated on his watch?
Obama made the point in a recent interview about how the US President has limited powers when it comes to many things, including what happens in the streets. So how does Obama get a free pass, yet it is all Trump's fault?
Is Obama running again? Can't believe I missed that.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I voted for Davey. But there has been a lot of noise and apparent movement towards Moran as the contest has dragged on. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upset TBH
If it is Moran the LDs can probably kiss goodbye to winning more Tory Remainers in 2024, only Davey is really likely to get them. Tory Remainers would likely even prefer Starmer to Moran
So, we think people will vote Trump to protect them from civil disorder that has escalated and has been escalated on his watch?
Obama made the point in a recent interview about how the US President has limited powers when it comes to many things, including what happens in the streets. So how does Obama get a free pass, yet it is all Trump's fault?
Is Obama running again? Can't believe I missed that.
I'm not sure I would agree with Mike's statement that Kamala Harris will outshine Pence. Yes, he is boring and she is an ex-prosecutor but Harris' performances in the debates were mixed. For God's sake, she got done over by Tulsi Gabbard....
Kamala Harris and Mike Pence will both win and both lose. Both candidates will direct their remarks to their own bases. It is unlikely they will even pretend to be talking about the same things.
If MP says Dems will steal all your guns, and KH says GOP will hand out free assault rifles on street corners, then each candidate wins with their own base and loses with the other. And this extends easily to other issues.
They will talk past each other, address their own bases, and spin it as a win.
So, we think people will vote Trump to protect them from civil disorder that has escalated and has been escalated on his watch?
On the watch of Democrat mayors and governors, many of whom have been quietly supportive of the rioters.
Trump has always said that federal resources are available to anyone who wants them to combat disorder.
Expect this to be hammered home by the Republicans in the coming weeks.
The biggest losers from rioting in the cities and the withdrawal of the Police has, in many cases, being poor black residents. And that is not including the stores that are shuttered permanently because shops won't open up in districts seen as prone to violence.
That will also be hammered home by the Republican. There is a reason why the advert on Baltimore has gone viral. It is because everyone knows, even if they don't want to admit it, that the facts speak for themselves.
Remember - the Democrats need the Black vote to turn out to win the swing states. If it doesn't, they lose.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
World class mug celebrates living in a nation of world class mugs.
BORIS leading the way
Disappointment coming soon to Wokeristas in USA too as Trump does in again!
London-based Daniel Pinto, head of JP Morgan's investment banking arm, told CNBC that staff will in future cycle between office-based shifts and home working.
“ Depending on the type of business, you may be working one week a month from home, or two days a week from home, or two weeks a month.”
I'm not sure I would agree with Mike's statement that Kamala Harris will outshine Pence. Yes, he is boring and she is an ex-prosecutor but Harris' performances in the debates were mixed. For God's sake, she got done over by Tulsi Gabbard....
Kamala Harris and Mike Pence will both win and both lose. Both candidates will direct their remarks to their own bases. It is unlikely they will even pretend to be talking about the same things.
If MP says Dems will steal all your guns, and KH says GOP will hand out free assault rifles on street corners, then each candidate wins with their own base and loses with the other. And this extends easily to other issues.
They will talk past each other, address their own bases, and spin it as a win.
I would also expect the Republicans to use the Gabbard quotes from the debate with Harris over and over again.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
World class mug celebrates living in a nation of world class mugs.
BORIS leading the way
Disappointment coming soon to Wokeristas in USA too as Trump does in again!
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
World class mug celebrates living in a nation of world class mugs.
BORIS leading the way
Disappointment coming soon to Wokeristas in USA too as Trump does in again!
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
World class mug celebrates living in a nation of world class mugs.
BORIS leading the way
Disappointment coming soon to Wokeristas in USA too as Trump does in again!
#MAGA2
The way some very senior tories have reacted to the latest mask u-turn shows there is very deep disquiet in the tory party right now about Boris
Coming soon.....the NHS Bozo loves so much leaving ten million people to rot waiting for treatment.
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
In 2016 Trafalgar Group was the only state pollster that had Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania, they cannot be ignored
Correct, you do not ignore them. You number crunch how reliable they have been at polling in the last 10 or so years and then add them to all the other polls which have also been weighted in a similar way to get a weighted poll of polls average.
Yet in 2016 it was not the poll average that was correct in Michigan and Pennsylvania, that had Hillary ahead in both states, it was Trafalgar Group which had Trump ahead there
Although they did also have him ahead (fairly comfortably) in Nevada, which he lost.
The point is that, if you were bullish on Trump in 2016, you look quite good as you called wins others didn't. However, that doesn't make a pollster an accurate pollster - you need to look over several election cycles for that.
So I don't rule out that Trafalgar could be right this time and don't rule out Trump could win overall. But I am not going to conclude they are the gold standard of polling, or superior to other pollsters, because of a couple of cherry-picked data points from one election.
The question is how much should I pay attention to a pollster that said Trump would win by 5 in Nevada (result, Hilary won), that Cruz would win by 7.5 in Texas (he won by 2.5) or that Kemp would win by 12 whole points in Georgia(he won by 1.5).
Trafalgar have some great PR, politico is always puffing them, but their results are mixed at best. If you simply take a poll average and then add a GOP lean you start doing about as well as Trafalgar polling at accuracy.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
World class mug celebrates living in a nation of world class mugs.
BORIS leading the way
Disappointment coming soon to Wokeristas in USA too as Trump does in again!
#MAGA2
#MAGAA
I don't feel so lonely any more
I'm afraid I'm not really keeping you company - I really don't mind who wins the USA Presidential election.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I voted for Davey. But there has been a lot of noise and apparent movement towards Moran as the contest has dragged on. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upset TBH
If it is Moran the LDs can probably kiss goodbye to winning more Tory Remainers in 2024, only Davey is really likely to get them. Tory Remainers would likely even prefer Starmer to Moran
As a Tory Remainer, which would you prefer?
Davey, though obviously I will still vote Tory regardless as a Tory member (albeit my fiancee lives in Moran's constituency)
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I voted for Davey. But there has been a lot of noise and apparent movement towards Moran as the contest has dragged on. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upset TBH
If it is Moran the LDs can probably kiss goodbye to winning more Tory Remainers in 2024, only Davey is really likely to get them. Tory Remainers would likely even prefer Starmer to Moran
As a Tory Remainer, which would you prefer?
Davey, though obviously I will still vote Tory regardless as a Tory member (albeit my fiancee lives in Moran's constituency)
I hope you've warned her about them pansexualists.
You have to be truly despicable to want Trump to win. It has nothing to do with being “woke” or “left vs right”.
Grow up
The guy openly fans the flames of race war and panders to white supremacists. He is a despicable human being and anyone who “supports” him is just as despicable.
So, we think people will vote Trump to protect them from civil disorder that has escalated and has been escalated on his watch?
Obama made the point in a recent interview about how the US President has limited powers when it comes to many things, including what happens in the streets. So how does Obama get a free pass, yet it is all Trump's fault?
Is Obama running again? Can't believe I missed that.
Answer the question....
Political leaders, sometimes fairly and sometimes not, tend to get judged on what happens in their countries on their watch. Why should President Trump be exempt from this? For example, he was all set to claim the good economy (forgetting the eye popping public debt) was all down to him. As absurd a claim as that the race riots or coronavirus are all his fault. But that's politics.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
That's all you Bozo apologists care about. Your understanding of the exercise of power is as vacuous and childish as his is. Not a care about whether the country is well run, but the polls. The Tory Party is a sad shadow of its once respectable self, and its membership is personified by dimwits who think the only thing that matters is "the polls".
I have been a Tory voter all of my adult life until the last election. Whatever the polls say now, there is a reasonable chance that the value vacuum that is Boris Johnson will, by the time of the next election deliver a massive no-deal induced recession and the breakup of the UK and a total collapse in Conservative support. After the next election the Tories may well be out for a generation.
The polls have closed in the most important political event of the year - LD leadership election!!
Has Layla done it?!
No, it will almost certainly be Davey
I agree although that will be boring!
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
As opposed to a "lots of personality but no leadership or competency skills" leader for the Tories. Leading a political party or a country is not meant to be a gameshow. It is a serious business, but then those that have been gulled by the fat clown still don't get it.
Presumably that's why CON are still ahead in the polls!
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
That's all you Bozo apologists care about. Your understanding of the exercise of power is as vacuous and childish as his is. Not a care about whether the country is well run, but the polls. The Tory Party is a sad shadow of its once respectable self, and its membership is personified by dimwits who think the only thing that matters is "the polls".
I have been a Tory voter all of my adult life until the last election. Whatever the polls say now, there is a reasonable chance that the value vacuum that is Boris Johnson will, by the time of the next election deliver a massive no-deal induced recession and the breakup of the UK and a total collapse in Conservative support. After the next election the Tories may well be out for a generation.
A no-deal might lead to Tory defeat yes, breakup of the UK though would actually increase the chances of a Tory majority given the Tories won a majority of only 80 in the UK at GE19 but had a majority of 157 in England alone
Comments
Edit - Ok fake news first.
Be scared Wokeristas!
https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/status/1297978637556252672?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1298469280472879104?s=20
Their model gives Biden a 70% chance of winning - i.e. according to them he is well over twice as likely to win as Trump at 30%.
Which in their header they denote as Biden being slightly favoured to win.
But according to RCP
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/
Clinton's lead on August 24 2016 was 4.0% not 5.4%, and Biden's on 24 August 2020 was 7.8% not 7.6%. Not going to check the accuracy of the other figures.
But that Wisconsin Trafalgar poll is just one poll, against all the others showing Biden leading. Cherry-picking.
https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/1298264945323171844
Pull back troops. Make allies pay their fair share. Rely on sanctions and tariffs. Be skeptical of international bodies.
He's the very opposite of a warmonger if you look at what he actually does.
Meanwhile.....
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1298589035812847616?s=20
Its partly covid of course. But COVID does not cause block after block of boarded up shops.
That's called looting
I also get why free trade supporters dislike his tariffs and trade wars and economic policy.
I fail to get however why those who oppose US overseas wars hate him given he has started no new wars or invaded or bombed no new countries and even been willing to meet with Kim Jong Un.
On international policy he is the least interventionist US President overseas since Jimmy Carter
Has Layla done it?!
“Richard finished his piece by saying they can’t tell us what an independent Scotland’s finances would look like. That is, of course, absolutely true.
What the GERS figures do tell us is, historically, how do Scotland’s revenue and expenditure figures look as an integral part of the UK.
You said – and it’s a critical phrase – ‘the purpose for which it’s intended’. Nobody suggests that the GERS figures show what a future independent Scotland would look like.”
And you sell him short on racism. He has not failed to do much about it. He has stoked it and dog whistled to its adherents at every opportunity.
'No personality' LD leader as well as one for LAB
Woodward and Bernstein, look to your laurels!
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1298575537888268290?s=20
I sense it's arse covering and I am marking them down for it.
Obviously other polls must be looked at too, I am just saying do not ignore Trafalgar Group
Fair enough on para 2
Trump won last time by a series of small wins in key states, IMO a win for him this time looks similar, can’t see him winning the popular vote.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
and it isn;t brexit Britain that gives billions in hard currency to Putin in exchange for gas supplies, and then shirks its Nato spedning responsibilities even though its a very rich nation.
It is Germany.
Long wait for those who want to see LAB or LD in power...
Trump has always said that federal resources are available to anyone who wants them to combat disorder.
Expect this to be hammered home by the Republicans in the coming weeks.
Karen Fit-bird need not apply.
https://twitter.com/FrancisWheen/status/1298578306141425666?s=20
The people of Scotland deserve more than "It'll be alright on the night".
GERS takes the current structure of UK Government reserved taxation and spending as given. If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices (good or bad) about the type of economy and society that we live in, then a set of accounts based upon the current constitutional settlement and policy priorities will look different to the long-term finances of an independent Scotland. Put simply, it’s not possible to run structural deficits of this scale over the long-run (even if you believe that a country’s central bank can simply print money to pay for it…btw, they can’t)
But GERS does provide an accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2020. So, in doing so, today’s numbers set the starting point for a discussion about the choices and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating independence or new fiscal arrangements. It’s not enough to say ‘everything will be fine’ or ‘look at this country, they can run a sensible fiscal balance so why can’t Scotland?’. Concrete proposals and ideas are needed.
https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/gers/and-were-off-government-expenditure-and-revenue-scotland-2019-20/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ulA8u05Z-Q
The best way to combat disorder caused by racist policing is to cease to tolerate racist policing.
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1298602031033266177?s=20
Cut out the tax raising and cheque writing middlemen.
If MP says Dems will steal all your guns, and KH says GOP will hand out free assault rifles on street corners, then each candidate wins with their own base and loses with the other. And this extends easily to other issues.
They will talk past each other, address their own bases, and spin it as a win.
That will also be hammered home by the Republican. There is a reason why the advert on Baltimore has gone viral. It is because everyone knows, even if they don't want to admit it, that the facts speak for themselves.
Remember - the Democrats need the Black vote to turn out to win the swing states. If it doesn't, they lose.
Disappointment coming soon to Wokeristas in USA too as Trump does in again!
#MAGA2
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/25/jpmorgan-linklaters-signal-end-daily-commute-city-workers/
London-based Daniel Pinto, head of JP Morgan's investment banking arm, told CNBC that staff will in future cycle between office-based shifts and home working.
“ Depending on the type of business, you may be working one week a month from home, or two days a week from home, or two weeks a month.”
Coming soon.....the NHS Bozo loves so much leaving ten million people to rot waiting for treatment.
The point is that, if you were bullish on Trump in 2016, you look quite good as you called wins others didn't. However, that doesn't make a pollster an accurate pollster - you need to look over several election cycles for that.
So I don't rule out that Trafalgar could be right this time and don't rule out Trump could win overall. But I am not going to conclude they are the gold standard of polling, or superior to other pollsters, because of a couple of cherry-picked data points from one election.
Trafalgar have some great PR, politico is always puffing them, but their results are mixed at best. If you simply take a poll average and then add a GOP lean you start doing about as well as Trafalgar polling at accuracy.
What's with asking a foreigner to lead our trade negotiations? Eh?
Wanting to piss off some “wokists” is no excuse.
I have been a Tory voter all of my adult life until the last election. Whatever the polls say now, there is a reasonable chance that the value vacuum that is Boris Johnson will, by the time of the next election deliver a massive no-deal induced recession and the breakup of the UK and a total collapse in Conservative support. After the next election the Tories may well be out for a generation.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1298589442568069120?s=20