My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Have you not noticed that the drastic action worked? The country is now opening up in a controlled fashion. If all this is thrown away, as you clearly want, the UK will be back to 4000 new cases and 900 deaths every day before the end of September.
So opening surgeries is throwing away all the hardwork? Jesus there are other illnesses other than Covid
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Masks help for flu too...
Maskwearing is pretty cost free, and as a way to keep the virus under control an economical one, compared to shutting down swathes of the economy again.
There are millions of people with other illnesses who are not being treated because of the protect yourself from Covid culture. Surgeries are completely failing their communities using Covid as a reason for not seeing anyone. People did not suddenly get better from every other illness in March when the lockdown started. Covid is now a background disease. Most people who get it do not even get ill. People are not being treated for the numerous other illnesses that humans get to enable healthcare staff to "protect" themselves from this background disease. Its complete madness. The obsession needs to stop.
Wearing a mask, and having patients wear them is helping me to treat non covid patients safely. It is a simple measure that allows normal service to be resumed.
In what way do you think that wearing masks interferes with treatment.
It is the failure of the Government to think about anything else other than Covid. How many health issues do you think have built up over the past 5 months with many surgeries basically closed to patients? My local surgery is like a prison. A study of 16,000 people in Southampton using the new saliva test over the past month found zero positive cases. Yet surgeries here remain shut to protect themselves.
Yes, but what about mask wearing in schools? How is that interfering with anything? Indeed it is a means of allowing normal service to resume.
The Single Market was a large part of what we voted on five years ago. If you wanted to stay in the Single Market you should have voted for Remain. All leading campaigners on both sides of the fence were absolutely explicit that leaving the EU was a vote to leave the Single Market.
And please don't share that discredited fake news video of out of context quotes that has been humiliatingly torn apart and discredited that tried to show the opposite.
It is critical to remember that the economic single market and the political EU are not one and the same thing. We can participate in the market as members of the European Economic Area without being saddled with the EU as a political project. Those, such as the business chiefs of the CBI, who confuse the memberships of the single market and the EU are making a basic error and misleading the British people.
This is where UKIP is wrong. Desperate to control immigration from the EU, the party has rejected continued membership of the single market within the EEA – which would place our economy at risk. In fact, as a member of the EEA but not the EU, we would not be bound by the European Court of Justice and its rulings on our benefits system. But, crucially, we could introduce “Safeguard Measures”, giving us an “emergency brake” on excessive migration – an option not available to us in the EU. We would get the benefits to business and the economy of free movement, with real power over our borders.
Was January 2015 before or during the Referendum campaign? 🙄
During the Referendum campaign the Leavers like Johnson united behind a proposal under Vote Leave and others like Farage united under an alternate one called Leave.EU and both were explicit and unequivocal that we would leave the Single Market.
Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson all explicitly said in the days before the vote on the BBC at prime time that we would leave the Single Market. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation. If you didn't understand that then don't cry now - if you did understand that but don't like it then tough.
Yes and Gove is still seeking that same free trade agreement.
You are aware that a free trade agreement is not the same as the Single Market, are you not?
He's referring to an existing free trade area that stretches from Iceland to the Russian border. What could that possibly mean other than the EEA?
He's referring to the combination of the EU, the EEA and Free Trade Agreements - the latter of which we should be a part of.
If you look at some of those countries on the Russian border like the Ukraine, Georgia as well as other countries like Switzerland that is outside of the EEA too then there are a plethora of mechanisms for free trade. Why should Switzerland, the Ukraine and Georgia be capable of having a free trade agreement without being in the EEA but the UK can't?
Countries like Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are in the EU and that's clearly what he's referring to, not every single country that borders Russia, which would include Belarus, China and North Korea.
Bullshit. You're making that up, he explicitly said "No" to would we be in the Single Market. Not maybe, not yes, no ifs or buts he said No.
So don't tell lies, it doesn't make you look big or clever. Others maybe you can say what you like but but he was explicitly asked and he said No.
You are arguing that in the course of the campaign he changed his position?
No, I am arguing he was consistent. Yes to Free Trade, no to the Single Market.
Find a single quote anywhere that explicitly goes against that, not you interpret it somehow twisting it into anything different please?
The position of the Leave campaign clearly evolved for tactical reasons. Initially they were talking about staying in the 'free trade zone'. When they came under pressure over the Norway option, Gove started talking about an Albanian model, before finally settling on the line of being outside the single market.
I was out of the country for the latter stages of the campaign, so I wasn't following it, but if that's the case then it's an example of an unusually productive democratic debate, and we should welcome that debate led to a change in position, rather than contort ourselves in trying to hold the person to a position they abandoned.
All I remember was Leave advocates refusing to commit to any specific plan, in the basis that the point was to regain the sovereign ability to choose, not to make that choice ahead of time. So it's always felt to me as though the referendum mandate has been redefined after the event, along the lines of Meeks' argument about Brexiter self-radicalisation.
But, like I say, I wasn't following it in detail.
I completely agree with every word.
I think Brexit has been re-defined multiple times since we voted to Leave and it wasn't defined prior on purpose.
I genuinely believe for a year+ after we voted, there would have been consensus and broad support for Norway by 60%+ of the electorate if May had gone for it
Had Remainer May gone for it then and the Remainers in Parliament then yes it could have had broad consensus. Its what I expected would happen as I though the Remainers would switch to supporting that since they couldn't have EU membership and it was the next-best-thing.
Even if a majority of Leavers didn't want it getting the support of 90% of former Remainers and 25% of former Leavers would have seen a clear majority in favour of EEA.
But Remainers chose not to go for it - and Leavers didn't want it. So it didn't happen.
The Remain campaign did switch to campaigning to stay in the single market after the referendum. It was only really after we got a hung parliament that that changed.
Clearly the issue is to stop runs so Pakistan don't overturn the 208 runs they're behind, set a challenging target and then take 10 wickets of ours in the overs left today.
I'm not sure why Archer is bowling rather than Broad with Anderson? Even if its not a new ball.
The Single Market was a large part of what we voted on five years ago. If you wanted to stay in the Single Market you should have voted for Remain. All leading campaigners on both sides of the fence were absolutely explicit that leaving the EU was a vote to leave the Single Market.
And please don't share that discredited fake news video of out of context quotes that has been humiliatingly torn apart and discredited that tried to show the opposite.
It is critical to remember that the economic single market and the political EU are not one and the same thing. We can participate in the market as members of the European Economic Area without being saddled with the EU as a political project. Those, such as the business chiefs of the CBI, who confuse the memberships of the single market and the EU are making a basic error and misleading the British people.
This is where UKIP is wrong. Desperate to control immigration from the EU, the party has rejected continued membership of the single market within the EEA – which would place our economy at risk. In fact, as a member of the EEA but not the EU, we would not be bound by the European Court of Justice and its rulings on our benefits system. But, crucially, we could introduce “Safeguard Measures”, giving us an “emergency brake” on excessive migration – an option not available to us in the EU. We would get the benefits to business and the economy of free movement, with real power over our borders.
Was January 2015 before or during the Referendum campaign? 🙄
During the Referendum campaign the Leavers like Johnson united behind a proposal under Vote Leave and others like Farage united under an alternate one called Leave.EU and both were explicit and unequivocal that we would leave the Single Market.
Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson all explicitly said in the days before the vote on the BBC at prime time that we would leave the Single Market. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation. If you didn't understand that then don't cry now - if you did understand that but don't like it then tough.
Yes and Gove is still seeking that same free trade agreement.
You are aware that a free trade agreement is not the same as the Single Market, are you not?
He's referring to an existing free trade area that stretches from Iceland to the Russian border. What could that possibly mean other than the EEA?
He's referring to the combination of the EU, the EEA and Free Trade Agreements - the latter of which we should be a part of.
If you look at some of those countries on the Russian border like the Ukraine, Georgia as well as other countries like Switzerland that is outside of the EEA too then there are a plethora of mechanisms for free trade. Why should Switzerland, the Ukraine and Georgia be capable of having a free trade agreement without being in the EEA but the UK can't?
Countries like Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are in the EU and that's clearly what he's referring to, not every single country that borders Russia, which would include Belarus, China and North Korea.
Bullshit. You're making that up, he explicitly said "No" to would we be in the Single Market. Not maybe, not yes, no ifs or buts he said No.
So don't tell lies, it doesn't make you look big or clever. Others maybe you can say what you like but but he was explicitly asked and he said No.
You are arguing that in the course of the campaign he changed his position?
No, I am arguing he was consistent. Yes to Free Trade, no to the Single Market.
Find a single quote anywhere that explicitly goes against that, not you interpret it somehow twisting it into anything different please?
The position of the Leave campaign clearly evolved for tactical reasons. Initially they were talking about staying in the 'free trade zone'. When they came under pressure over the Norway option, Gove started talking about an Albanian model, before finally settling on the line of being outside the single market.
I was out of the country for the latter stages of the campaign, so I wasn't following it, but if that's the case then it's an example of an unusually productive democratic debate, and we should welcome that debate led to a change in position, rather than contort ourselves in trying to hold the person to a position they abandoned.
All I remember was Leave advocates refusing to commit to any specific plan, in the basis that the point was to regain the sovereign ability to choose, not to make that choice ahead of time. So it's always felt to me as though the referendum mandate has been redefined after the event, along the lines of Meeks' argument about Brexiter self-radicalisation.
But, like I say, I wasn't following it in detail.
I completely agree with every word.
I think Brexit has been re-defined multiple times since we voted to Leave and it wasn't defined prior on purpose.
I genuinely believe for a year+ after we voted, there would have been consensus and broad support for Norway by 60%+ of the electorate if May had gone for it
Had Remainer May gone for it then and the Remainers in Parliament then yes it could have had broad consensus. Its what I expected would happen as I though the Remainers would switch to supporting that since they couldn't have EU membership and it was the next-best-thing.
Even if a majority of Leavers didn't want it getting the support of 90% of former Remainers and 25% of former Leavers would have seen a clear majority in favour of EEA.
But Remainers chose not to go for it - and Leavers didn't want it. So it didn't happen.
The Remain campaign did switch to campaigning to stay in the single market after the referendum. It was only really after we got a hung parliament that that changed.
Which makes no sense whatsoever. In the Hung Parliament Remainers had the number to force through EEA - instead they got greedy and rejected it and now the rest is history.
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Have you not noticed that the drastic action worked? The country is now opening up in a controlled fashion. If all this is thrown away, as you clearly want, the UK will be back to 4000 new cases and 900 deaths every day before the end of September.
So opening surgeries is throwing away all the hardwork? Jesus there are other illnesses other than Covid
If your concern is about opening surgeries and ramping up treatments for other illnesses, why not stick to that instead of ranting about masks in shops and schools?
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Masks help for flu too...
Maskwearing is pretty cost free, and as a way to keep the virus under control an economical one, compared to shutting down swathes of the economy again.
There are millions of people with other illnesses who are not being treated because of the protect yourself from Covid culture. Surgeries are completely failing their communities using Covid as a reason for not seeing anyone. People did not suddenly get better from every other illness in March when the lockdown started. Covid is now a background disease. Most people who get it do not even get ill. People are not being treated for the numerous other illnesses that humans get to enable healthcare staff to "protect" themselves from this background disease. Its complete madness. The obsession needs to stop.
Wearing a mask, and having patients wear them is helping me to treat non covid patients safely. It is a simple measure that allows normal service to be resumed.
In what way do you think that wearing masks interferes with treatment.
It is the failure of the Government to think about anything else other than Covid. How many health issues do you think have built up over the past 5 months with many surgeries basically closed to patients? My local surgery is like a prison. A study of 16,000 people in Southampton using the new saliva test over the past month found zero positive cases. Yet surgeries here remain shut to protect themselves.
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Masks help for flu too...
Maskwearing is pretty cost free, and as a way to keep the virus under control an economical one, compared to shutting down swathes of the economy again.
There are millions of people with other illnesses who are not being treated because of the protect yourself from Covid culture. Surgeries are completely failing their communities using Covid as a reason for not seeing anyone. People did not suddenly get better from every other illness in March when the lockdown started. Covid is now a background disease. Most people who get it do not even get ill. People are not being treated for the numerous other illnesses that humans get to enable healthcare staff to "protect" themselves from this background disease. Its complete madness. The obsession needs to stop.
Wearing a mask, and having patients wear them is helping me to treat non covid patients safely. It is a simple measure that allows normal service to be resumed.
In what way do you think that wearing masks interferes with treatment.
It is the failure of the Government to think about anything else other than Covid. How many health issues do you think have built up over the past 5 months with many surgeries basically closed to patients? My local surgery is like a prison. A study of 16,000 people in Southampton using the new saliva test over the past month found zero positive cases. Yet surgeries here remain shut to protect themselves.
Yes, but what about mask wearing in schools? How is that interfering with anything? Indeed it is a means of allowing normal service to resume.
Its like saying what is wrong with the Government concentrating on a village winning Britain in Bloom whilst the crops in the field are rotting away. Wearing masks in schools will make absolutely no difference to the spread of Covid. Opening surgeries and getting sick people seen rather than leaving them to die at home should be the Government's priority, but it is clearly not. I say it again Covid accounted for 1.5% of deaths. We need to start worrying about what caused the other 98.5% of deaths.
Clearly the issue is to stop runs so Pakistan don't overturn the 208 runs they're behind, set a challenging target and then take 10 wickets of ours in the overs left today.
I'm not sure why Archer is bowling rather than Broad with Anderson? Even if its not a new ball.
That is a terrible strategy for a Test match. If England have almost no chace of losing this match and if they are worried about losing it from here, they do not deserve the status of a Test nation.
Its quite clear that the people of America have seen the widespread murder, riots, looting and anarchy exploding in their democrat run cities right now.
The Single Market was a large part of what we voted on five years ago. If you wanted to stay in the Single Market you should have voted for Remain. All leading campaigners on both sides of the fence were absolutely explicit that leaving the EU was a vote to leave the Single Market.
And please don't share that discredited fake news video of out of context quotes that has been humiliatingly torn apart and discredited that tried to show the opposite.
It is critical to remember that the economic single market and the political EU are not one and the same thing. We can participate in the market as members of the European Economic Area without being saddled with the EU as a political project. Those, such as the business chiefs of the CBI, who confuse the memberships of the single market and the EU are making a basic error and misleading the British people.
This is where UKIP is wrong. Desperate to control immigration from the EU, the party has rejected continued membership of the single market within the EEA – which would place our economy at risk. In fact, as a member of the EEA but not the EU, we would not be bound by the European Court of Justice and its rulings on our benefits system. But, crucially, we could introduce “Safeguard Measures”, giving us an “emergency brake” on excessive migration – an option not available to us in the EU. We would get the benefits to business and the economy of free movement, with real power over our borders.
Was January 2015 before or during the Referendum campaign? 🙄
During the Referendum campaign the Leavers like Johnson united behind a proposal under Vote Leave and others like Farage united under an alternate one called Leave.EU and both were explicit and unequivocal that we would leave the Single Market.
Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson all explicitly said in the days before the vote on the BBC at prime time that we would leave the Single Market. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation. If you didn't understand that then don't cry now - if you did understand that but don't like it then tough.
Yes and Gove is still seeking that same free trade agreement.
You are aware that a free trade agreement is not the same as the Single Market, are you not?
He's referring to an existing free trade area that stretches from Iceland to the Russian border. What could that possibly mean other than the EEA?
He's referring to the combination of the EU, the EEA and Free Trade Agreements - the latter of which we should be a part of.
If you look at some of those countries on the Russian border like the Ukraine, Georgia as well as other countries like Switzerland that is outside of the EEA too then there are a plethora of mechanisms for free trade. Why should Switzerland, the Ukraine and Georgia be capable of having a free trade agreement without being in the EEA but the UK can't?
Countries like Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are in the EU and that's clearly what he's referring to, not every single country that borders Russia, which would include Belarus, China and North Korea.
Bullshit. You're making that up, he explicitly said "No" to would we be in the Single Market. Not maybe, not yes, no ifs or buts he said No.
So don't tell lies, it doesn't make you look big or clever. Others maybe you can say what you like but but he was explicitly asked and he said No.
You are arguing that in the course of the campaign he changed his position?
No, I am arguing he was consistent. Yes to Free Trade, no to the Single Market.
Find a single quote anywhere that explicitly goes against that, not you interpret it somehow twisting it into anything different please?
The position of the Leave campaign clearly evolved for tactical reasons. Initially they were talking about staying in the 'free trade zone'. When they came under pressure over the Norway option, Gove started talking about an Albanian model, before finally settling on the line of being outside the single market.
I was out of the country for the latter stages of the campaign, so I wasn't following it, but if that's the case then it's an example of an unusually productive democratic debate, and we should welcome that debate led to a change in position, rather than contort ourselves in trying to hold the person to a position they abandoned.
All I remember was Leave advocates refusing to commit to any specific plan, in the basis that the point was to regain the sovereign ability to choose, not to make that choice ahead of time. So it's always felt to me as though the referendum mandate has been redefined after the event, along the lines of Meeks' argument about Brexiter self-radicalisation.
But, like I say, I wasn't following it in detail.
I completely agree with every word.
I think Brexit has been re-defined multiple times since we voted to Leave and it wasn't defined prior on purpose.
I genuinely believe for a year+ after we voted, there would have been consensus and broad support for Norway by 60%+ of the electorate if May had gone for it
Had Remainer May gone for it then and the Remainers in Parliament then yes it could have had broad consensus. Its what I expected would happen as I though the Remainers would switch to supporting that since they couldn't have EU membership and it was the next-best-thing.
Even if a majority of Leavers didn't want it getting the support of 90% of former Remainers and 25% of former Leavers would have seen a clear majority in favour of EEA.
But Remainers chose not to go for it - and Leavers didn't want it. So it didn't happen.
Except that May was defenestrated for putting forward a considerably harder Brexit than Norway. If there had been so much as a whiff of her trying to get a Norway-style deal in place (using Opposition votes, remember), she would have been out of No 10 faster than you can say "17.4 million".
(My theory is that different bits of the Brexit coalition want different things. Some want freedom on trade deals, some want control of borders, some want fish. There are two ways of keeping them all happy. One is to stomp off up to our national bedroom and have no deal, the other is to imagine we can get something for nothing. And you have to keep them all happy, because otherwise Nigel will have a chunk of betrayed people to play with.)
Its quite clear that the people of America have seen the widespread murder, riots, looting and anarchy exploding in their democrat run cities right now.
And boy, do they approve.
Its the militarised Police that are behind the violence not protests.
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Masks help for flu too...
Maskwearing is pretty cost free, and as a way to keep the virus under control an economical one, compared to shutting down swathes of the economy again.
There are millions of people with other illnesses who are not being treated because of the protect yourself from Covid culture. Surgeries are completely failing their communities using Covid as a reason for not seeing anyone. People did not suddenly get better from every other illness in March when the lockdown started. Covid is now a background disease. Most people who get it do not even get ill. People are not being treated for the numerous other illnesses that humans get to enable healthcare staff to "protect" themselves from this background disease. Its complete madness. The obsession needs to stop.
Wearing a mask, and having patients wear them is helping me to treat non covid patients safely. It is a simple measure that allows normal service to be resumed.
In what way do you think that wearing masks interferes with treatment.
It is the failure of the Government to think about anything else other than Covid. How many health issues do you think have built up over the past 5 months with many surgeries basically closed to patients? My local surgery is like a prison. A study of 16,000 people in Southampton using the new saliva test over the past month found zero positive cases. Yet surgeries here remain shut to protect themselves.
Yes, but what about mask wearing in schools? How is that interfering with anything? Indeed it is a means of allowing normal service to resume.
Its like saying what is wrong with the Government concentrating on a village winning Britain in Bloom whilst the crops in the field are rotting away. Wearing masks in schools will make absolutely no difference to the spread of Covid. Opening surgeries and getting sick people seen rather than leaving them to die at home should be the Government's priority, but it is clearly not. I say it again Covid accounted for 1.5% of deaths. We need to start worrying about what caused the other 98.5% of deaths.
I think that most people on this forum agree that GP surgeries should be open.
That has as much to do with the debate about wearing masks in schools as the poisoning of Navalny has to do with the number of slip fielders that Joe Root is setting.
The Single Market was a large part of what we voted on five years ago. If you wanted to stay in the Single Market you should have voted for Remain. All leading campaigners on both sides of the fence were absolutely explicit that leaving the EU was a vote to leave the Single Market.
And please don't share that discredited fake news video of out of context quotes that has been humiliatingly torn apart and discredited that tried to show the opposite.
It is critical to remember that the economic single market and the political EU are not one and the same thing. We can participate in the market as members of the European Economic Area without being saddled with the EU as a political project. Those, such as the business chiefs of the CBI, who confuse the memberships of the single market and the EU are making a basic error and misleading the British people.
This is where UKIP is wrong. Desperate to control immigration from the EU, the party has rejected continued membership of the single market within the EEA – which would place our economy at risk. In fact, as a member of the EEA but not the EU, we would not be bound by the European Court of Justice and its rulings on our benefits system. But, crucially, we could introduce “Safeguard Measures”, giving us an “emergency brake” on excessive migration – an option not available to us in the EU. We would get the benefits to business and the economy of free movement, with real power over our borders.
Was January 2015 before or during the Referendum campaign? 🙄
During the Referendum campaign the Leavers like Johnson united behind a proposal under Vote Leave and others like Farage united under an alternate one called Leave.EU and both were explicit and unequivocal that we would leave the Single Market.
Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson all explicitly said in the days before the vote on the BBC at prime time that we would leave the Single Market. No ifs, no buts, no equivocation. If you didn't understand that then don't cry now - if you did understand that but don't like it then tough.
Yes and Gove is still seeking that same free trade agreement.
You are aware that a free trade agreement is not the same as the Single Market, are you not?
He's referring to an existing free trade area that stretches from Iceland to the Russian border. What could that possibly mean other than the EEA?
He's referring to the combination of the EU, the EEA and Free Trade Agreements - the latter of which we should be a part of.
If you look at some of those countries on the Russian border like the Ukraine, Georgia as well as other countries like Switzerland that is outside of the EEA too then there are a plethora of mechanisms for free trade. Why should Switzerland, the Ukraine and Georgia be capable of having a free trade agreement without being in the EEA but the UK can't?
Countries like Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are in the EU and that's clearly what he's referring to, not every single country that borders Russia, which would include Belarus, China and North Korea.
Bullshit. You're making that up, he explicitly said "No" to would we be in the Single Market. Not maybe, not yes, no ifs or buts he said No.
So don't tell lies, it doesn't make you look big or clever. Others maybe you can say what you like but but he was explicitly asked and he said No.
You are arguing that in the course of the campaign he changed his position?
No, I am arguing he was consistent. Yes to Free Trade, no to the Single Market.
Find a single quote anywhere that explicitly goes against that, not you interpret it somehow twisting it into anything different please?
The position of the Leave campaign clearly evolved for tactical reasons. Initially they were talking about staying in the 'free trade zone'. When they came under pressure over the Norway option, Gove started talking about an Albanian model, before finally settling on the line of being outside the single market.
I was out of the country for the latter stages of the campaign, so I wasn't following it, but if that's the case then it's an example of an unusually productive democratic debate, and we should welcome that debate led to a change in position, rather than contort ourselves in trying to hold the person to a position they abandoned.
All I remember was Leave advocates refusing to commit to any specific plan, in the basis that the point was to regain the sovereign ability to choose, not to make that choice ahead of time. So it's always felt to me as though the referendum mandate has been redefined after the event, along the lines of Meeks' argument about Brexiter self-radicalisation.
But, like I say, I wasn't following it in detail.
I completely agree with every word.
I think Brexit has been re-defined multiple times since we voted to Leave and it wasn't defined prior on purpose.
I genuinely believe for a year+ after we voted, there would have been consensus and broad support for Norway by 60%+ of the electorate if May had gone for it
Had Remainer May gone for it then and the Remainers in Parliament then yes it could have had broad consensus. Its what I expected would happen as I though the Remainers would switch to supporting that since they couldn't have EU membership and it was the next-best-thing.
Even if a majority of Leavers didn't want it getting the support of 90% of former Remainers and 25% of former Leavers would have seen a clear majority in favour of EEA.
But Remainers chose not to go for it - and Leavers didn't want it. So it didn't happen.
Yes. I'm furious at May for deciding that immigration was the most important determinant, thereby ruling out EEA, and I'm pissed off at Remainers for not compromising with reality.
Its funny how many Americans who like the Second Amendment and worry about an overbearing Federal state are horrified at the idea of mainly unarmed protesters standing up to an authoritarian Police state abusing its powers and roughing up and killing innocent people.
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Masks help for flu too...
Maskwearing is pretty cost free, and as a way to keep the virus under control an economical one, compared to shutting down swathes of the economy again.
There are millions of people with other illnesses who are not being treated because of the protect yourself from Covid culture. Surgeries are completely failing their communities using Covid as a reason for not seeing anyone. People did not suddenly get better from every other illness in March when the lockdown started. Covid is now a background disease. Most people who get it do not even get ill. People are not being treated for the numerous other illnesses that humans get to enable healthcare staff to "protect" themselves from this background disease. Its complete madness. The obsession needs to stop.
Wearing a mask, and having patients wear them is helping me to treat non covid patients safely. It is a simple measure that allows normal service to be resumed.
In what way do you think that wearing masks interferes with treatment.
It is the failure of the Government to think about anything else other than Covid. How many health issues do you think have built up over the past 5 months with many surgeries basically closed to patients? My local surgery is like a prison. A study of 16,000 people in Southampton using the new saliva test over the past month found zero positive cases. Yet surgeries here remain shut to protect themselves.
Yes, but what about mask wearing in schools? How is that interfering with anything? Indeed it is a means of allowing normal service to resume.
Its like saying what is wrong with the Government concentrating on a village winning Britain in Bloom whilst the crops in the field are rotting away. Wearing masks in schools will make absolutely no difference to the spread of Covid. Opening surgeries and getting sick people seen rather than leaving them to die at home should be the Government's priority, but it is clearly not. I say it again Covid accounted for 1.5% of deaths. We need to start worrying about what caused the other 98.5% of deaths.
I think that most people on this forum agree that GP surgeries should be open.
That has as much to do with the debate about wearing masks in schools as the poisoning of Navalny has to do with the number of slip fielders that Joe Root is setting.
So do you think the Government should concentrate more on getting schoolchildren to wear masks or reopening surgeries?
Its quite clear that the people of America have seen the widespread murder, riots, looting and anarchy exploding in their democrat run cities right now.
And boy, do they approve.
Its the militarised Police that are behind the violence not protests.
You're dealing with someone who defended Jake Hepple.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
Its quite clear that the people of America have seen the widespread murder, riots, looting and anarchy exploding in their democrat run cities right now.
And boy, do they approve.
Its the militarised Police that are behind the violence not protests.
nah not buying that complete BS
I saw the video of Manhattan see. Deserted streets. Shops boarded up, shop after shop, block after block. Fifth, Park, Madison.
As the commentator says, they even looted Barnes and Noble. A bookstore!
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
I have just read that hospital doctors are exempt from the 14 day quarantine when on return from holiday in one of the red places e.g. France.
Is this correct?
Am I going mad? The one group of people you would most like to keep the virus to themselves should they have picked it up on the beach in France are excluded?
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
If the average duration is 17 years then just over £117bn has to be rolled over/paid back each year plus of course the net cash requirement for that year. It really won't take long for an increase in long term yields to start to hurt.
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Masks help for flu too...
Maskwearing is pretty cost free, and as a way to keep the virus under control an economical one, compared to shutting down swathes of the economy again.
There are millions of people with other illnesses who are not being treated because of the protect yourself from Covid culture. Surgeries are completely failing their communities using Covid as a reason for not seeing anyone. People did not suddenly get better from every other illness in March when the lockdown started. Covid is now a background disease. Most people who get it do not even get ill. People are not being treated for the numerous other illnesses that humans get to enable healthcare staff to "protect" themselves from this background disease. Its complete madness. The obsession needs to stop.
Wearing a mask, and having patients wear them is helping me to treat non covid patients safely. It is a simple measure that allows normal service to be resumed.
In what way do you think that wearing masks interferes with treatment.
It is the failure of the Government to think about anything else other than Covid. How many health issues do you think have built up over the past 5 months with many surgeries basically closed to patients? My local surgery is like a prison. A study of 16,000 people in Southampton using the new saliva test over the past month found zero positive cases. Yet surgeries here remain shut to protect themselves.
Yes, but what about mask wearing in schools? How is that interfering with anything? Indeed it is a means of allowing normal service to resume.
Its like saying what is wrong with the Government concentrating on a village winning Britain in Bloom whilst the crops in the field are rotting away. Wearing masks in schools will make absolutely no difference to the spread of Covid. Opening surgeries and getting sick people seen rather than leaving them to die at home should be the Government's priority, but it is clearly not. I say it again Covid accounted for 1.5% of deaths. We need to start worrying about what caused the other 98.5% of deaths.
I think that most people on this forum agree that GP surgeries should be open.
That has as much to do with the debate about wearing masks in schools as the poisoning of Navalny has to do with the number of slip fielders that Joe Root is setting.
So do you think the Government should concentrate more on getting schoolchildren to wear masks or reopening surgeries?
Its quite clear that the people of America have seen the widespread murder, riots, looting and anarchy exploding in their democrat run cities right now.
And boy, do they approve.
Its the militarised Police that are behind the violence not protests.
nah not buying that complete BS
I saw the video of Manhattan see. Deserted streets. Shops boarded up, shop after shop, block after block. Fifth, Park, Madison.
As the commentator says, they even looted Barnes and Noble. A bookstore!
And a bookstore being robbed by criminals is worse than innocent people being shot dead by the Police how exactly? Looters jumping on a bandwagon and robbing stores is worse than the Police firing, attacking and abusing unarmed people how?
I stand with the people not an authoritarian Police state abusing its authority and beating up, shooting and killing the public.
I have just read that hospital doctors are exempt from the 14 day quarantine when on return from holiday in one of the red places e.g. France.
Is this correct?
Am I going mad? The one group of people you would most like to keep the virus to themselves should they have picked it up on the beach in France are excluded?
Do they have a "lifetime" award. If so then he would be a good candidate for that. the OTY part is pushing it a bit.
Favourite is Tyson Fury, who has fought once to beat a second rate heavyweight to win the World Champ of boxing (2-1). Hamilton who will win the F1 World Championship again (7-2); O' Sullivan who won the World Champs once more (4-1); And Rashford who beat the PM at politics (10-1).
This might mean a reduction in our company's pension deficit.
Time Gentlemen please.....see your borrowing off now......Mr Sunak......
There is no economic reason to do so now.
The moment the recession is over though yes absolutely. Though you want to drag out the recession and make it worse by not controlling the virus which is odd - I can understand a liberal argument on that but on pure economics controlling the virus is how we get the economy back to normal.
This might mean a reduction in our company's pension deficit.
Every hurricane has a silver lining, I guess...
Actually it too is potentially good news. The massive pension deficits created by a combination of a falling market and collapsing yields meant that a lot of profit that should have been forming the seed corn for fresh investment was being diverted to pension funds. If that is reversed a bit I would expect investment to respond positively.
I have just read that hospital doctors are exempt from the 14 day quarantine when on return from holiday in one of the red places e.g. France.
Is this correct?
Am I going mad? The one group of people you would most like to keep the virus to themselves should they have picked it up on the beach in France are excluded?
My view on masks in schools is that we are taking a big risk on a second virus peak on children going back to school due to the sheer number of social interactions in that environment. I also think we need to make school work, which means being rigorous on hygiene everywhere - masks in schools, yes - but also in pubs etc. We have zero headroom on this virus.
The are seven conditions killing more people than coronavirus in our country at the moment.
count them.
1.5% of deaths in the week ending 14th August had Covid on the death certificate. Huge areas of the Country have had no Covid positive cases for weeks. This protect yourself from Covid at all costs mantra needs to stop. 6 times as many people died from flu that week. What are we doing about that?
Have you not noticed that the drastic action worked? The country is now opening up in a controlled fashion. If all this is thrown away, as you clearly want, the UK will be back to 4000 new cases and 900 deaths every day before the end of September.
So opening surgeries is throwing away all the hardwork? Jesus there are other illnesses other than Covid
If your concern is about opening surgeries and ramping up treatments for other illnesses, why not stick to that instead of ranting about masks in shops and schools?
Mask wearing, enhanced cleaning, and a socially distanced waiting area has allowed my department to resume an approximation of normal service, with the confidence of the patients. The ambition is 90% of normal activity by October, but I think 75% more realistic.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
A problem at the moment is that one leader johnson is far better known than Starmer who has only been in the job for three and a half months and still has a high level of DKs. It takes time for an opposition leader to build profile so that a proper comparison can be made.
Also please don't confuse satisfaction ratings with favourability or approval.
Thus a GE2019 Tory could have been satisfied with Corbyn because he was so crap but not view him favourably
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
If the average duration is 17 years then just over £117bn has to be rolled over/paid back each year plus of course the net cash requirement for that year. It really won't take long for an increase in long term yields to start to hurt.
Yes, but that debt will enforce fiscal discipline on all governments, none will be able to allow the yield on long dated debt to rise above 2% or we will face financial ruin as a nation.
Poor ratings for Boris, related to the news on his retirement at some point next year as well I'm sure. Whilst his positive ratings were in the low to mid 40s his pool of voters was large enough to win an election, now with them dropping it isn't. I'd say Boris has a potential pool of voters of 56% of the electorate while Starmer can reach 75% of the electorate, that alone is beginning to tell in the headline VI.
This is before the Treasury starts to unwind what has made life easy for everyone. I'm not sure what will happen to the VI once the furlough has ended and a million or more people are moved to JSA and forced to find new work in fields they have no skills or training in. It may work out that this ends up like 2010-2019 and jobs are created out of the ashes of of a huge crash, but the people affected by it won't thank the government.
Boris has a much bigger potential pool than 56% if he wants it. Get a trade deal, replace the cabinet members who are only in for blind loyalty, back away from the authoritarian nationalism and govern well and I could vote for him by 2024. It is a long time away and by then it will surely be his record he is judged on, good or bad, not his bluster and blunder which held zero appeal for me.
What authoritarian nationalism?
It was Theresa May that was the authoritarian. Boris Johnson has always hailed more from the libertarian wing of the Conservative Party, which is why I am such a big fan of his - and why things like lockdown etc are not things he would have wanted to do.
Lack of respect for the judiciary and rule of law. Cosying up to Steve Bannon et al.
I understand what you mean on judiciary and rule of law, but what cosying up to Steve Bannon et al has been done in the over a year now that Johnson has been in Downing Street? I've not seen anything like that.
Outside your timeline but very much cosying up to Bannon.
An article by Carole Codswallop saying that known self-publicist, egotist and liar Steve Bannon claimed he spoke to Johnson? Is that it?
If there were any cosying then there should be something clear from the year Johnson has been in charge surely? Not a claim of cosying by Carole Codswallop three years ago and nothing since?
If in 2003 when Australia once again comprehensively retained the Ashes you'd said to me that a promising young English bowler who'd just had his ODI debut for England before the Ashes would end up with more Test wickets than Glenn McGrath I'd have found it very hard to believe.
Anderson really has been tremendous for English cricket.
Its quite clear that the people of America have seen the widespread murder, riots, looting and anarchy exploding in their democrat run cities right now.
And boy, do they approve.
Its the militarised Police that are behind the violence not protests.
nah not buying that complete BS
I saw the video of Manhattan see. Deserted streets. Shops boarded up, shop after shop, block after block. Fifth, Park, Madison.
As the commentator says, they even looted Barnes and Noble. A bookstore!
It is the protestors who are responsible.
But I also wouldn't ignore just how invisible these protests are to 99% of Americans. Because of CV19, no one is shopping in Manhattan.
I'm in Los Angeles, and I've seen photos of boarded up shops. But I've not seen or heard anything IRL. No sirens or helicopters or anything like that.
Normally, I suspect, because I'd have been traveling to meetings to shopping to work or to dinner,I might have seen things. But if I'm not seeing anything in my real life, despite living very close to where trouble spots are.
This compares to London in 2012. Then you knew there were riots. Here, were it not for news, you would not.
And I think that makes it a much less salient point. It's one degree (or more) removed from 99% of Americans.
Poor ratings for Boris, related to the news on his retirement at some point next year as well I'm sure. Whilst his positive ratings were in the low to mid 40s his pool of voters was large enough to win an election, now with them dropping it isn't. I'd say Boris has a potential pool of voters of 56% of the electorate while Starmer can reach 75% of the electorate, that alone is beginning to tell in the headline VI.
This is before the Treasury starts to unwind what has made life easy for everyone. I'm not sure what will happen to the VI once the furlough has ended and a million or more people are moved to JSA and forced to find new work in fields they have no skills or training in. It may work out that this ends up like 2010-2019 and jobs are created out of the ashes of of a huge crash, but the people affected by it won't thank the government.
Boris has a much bigger potential pool than 56% if he wants it. Get a trade deal, replace the cabinet members who are only in for blind loyalty, back away from the authoritarian nationalism and govern well and I could vote for him by 2024. It is a long time away and by then it will surely be his record he is judged on, good or bad, not his bluster and blunder which held zero appeal for me.
What authoritarian nationalism?
It was Theresa May that was the authoritarian. Boris Johnson has always hailed more from the libertarian wing of the Conservative Party, which is why I am such a big fan of his - and why things like lockdown etc are not things he would have wanted to do.
Lack of respect for the judiciary and rule of law. Cosying up to Steve Bannon et al.
I understand what you mean on judiciary and rule of law, but what cosying up to Steve Bannon et al has been done in the over a year now that Johnson has been in Downing Street? I've not seen anything like that.
Outside your timeline but very much cosying up to Bannon.
An article by Carole Codswallop saying that known self-publicist, egotist and liar Steve Bannon claimed he spoke to Johnson? Is that it?
If there were any cosying then there should be something clear from the year Johnson has been in charge surely? Not a claim of cosying by Carole Codswallop three years ago and nothing since?
No I dislike the Mail but again that's just repeating the reports that Bannon claimed he spoke to Johnson. No evidence of any cosying and that is from years ago and nothing to do with his time as PM.
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
If the average duration is 17 years then just over £117bn has to be rolled over/paid back each year plus of course the net cash requirement for that year. It really won't take long for an increase in long term yields to start to hurt.
But increasing yields normally reflect nominal economic growth, so that should happen in the context of debt to GDP falling
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
If the average duration is 17 years then just over £117bn has to be rolled over/paid back each year plus of course the net cash requirement for that year. It really won't take long for an increase in long term yields to start to hurt.
But increasing yields normally reflect nominal economic growth, so that should happen in the context of debt to GDP falling
Also doesn't it depend on the yields of the maturing debt? What were yields like 15 years ago?
Its quite clear that the people of America have seen the widespread murder, riots, looting and anarchy exploding in their democrat run cities right now.
And boy, do they approve.
Its the militarised Police that are behind the violence not protests.
nah not buying that complete BS
I saw the video of Manhattan see. Deserted streets. Shops boarded up, shop after shop, block after block. Fifth, Park, Madison.
As the commentator says, they even looted Barnes and Noble. A bookstore!
It is the protestors who are responsible.
But I also wouldn't ignore just how invisible these protests are to 99% of Americans. Because of CV19, no one is shopping in Manhattan.
I'm in Los Angeles, and I've seen photos of boarded up shops. But I've not seen or heard anything IRL. No sirens or helicopters or anything like that.
Normally, I suspect, because I'd have been traveling to meetings to shopping to work or to dinner,I might have seen things. But if I'm not seeing anything in my real life, despite living very close to where trouble spots are.
This compares to London in 2012. Then you knew there were riots. Here, were it not for news, you would not.
And I think that makes it a much less salient point. It's one degree (or more) removed from 99% of Americans.
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
If the average duration is 17 years then just over £117bn has to be rolled over/paid back each year plus of course the net cash requirement for that year. It really won't take long for an increase in long term yields to start to hurt.
Yes, but that debt will enforce fiscal discipline on all governments, none will be able to allow the yield on long dated debt to rise above 2% or we will face financial ruin as a nation.
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
If the average duration is 17 years then just over £117bn has to be rolled over/paid back each year plus of course the net cash requirement for that year. It really won't take long for an increase in long term yields to start to hurt.
But increasing yields normally reflect nominal economic growth, so that should happen in the context of debt to GDP falling
Exactly, normalisation of the yield curve in this context is probably a good thing. As I said last night it looks like the economy isn't going to take anywhere near as bad a hit that the early projections had pencilled in, this, to me, is the markets waking up to the fact that the UK economy will be 4% smaller starting in 2021 rather than 12% smaller.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
A problem at the moment is that one leader johnson is far better known than Starmer who has only been in the job for three and a half months and still has a high level of DKs. It takes time for an opposition leader to build profile so that a proper comparison can be made.
Also please don't confuse satisfaction ratings with favourability or approval.
Thus a GE2019 Tory could have been satisfied with Corbyn because he was so crap but not view him favourably
The piece of yours I cited was written when Ed Miliband was about the same stage of the job as Starmer is now (which I think is longer than three and a half months?)
Unlike the Commonwealth the UN does nothing to expel from its membership dictators etc
Xi and Putin both sit on the Security Council.
As for thieves - well Trump is on the Security Council too.
Realistically you cannot not have China and Russia as well as the USA on the UN Security Council if there is any point to it, it is not supposed to be a body only for democracies and free market economies like the G7 but was set up to incorporate the main world powers to solve problems diplomatically first rather than through military action
Normalisation of the yield curve is actually a good sign that markets believe the UK economy is returning to normal. As I posted last night the current projections from major bodies are far too pessimistic and I think the market has realised.
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
If the average duration is 17 years then just over £117bn has to be rolled over/paid back each year plus of course the net cash requirement for that year. It really won't take long for an increase in long term yields to start to hurt.
But increasing yields normally reflect nominal economic growth, so that should happen in the context of debt to GDP falling
Exactly, normalisation of the yield curve in this context is probably a good thing. As I said last night it looks like the economy isn't going to take anywhere near as bad a hit that the early projections had pencilled in, this, to me, is the markets waking up to the fact that the UK economy will be 4% smaller starting in 2021 rather than 12% smaller.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Hhahahahah - good one! Definitely worthy of a thread.
Unlike the Commonwealth the UN does nothing to expel from its membership dictators etc
Xi and Putin both sit on the Security Council.
As for thieves - well Trump is on the Security Council too.
Realistically you cannot not have China and Russia as well as the USA on the UN Security Council if there is any point to it, it is not supposed to be a body only for democracies and free market economies like the G7 but was set up to incorporate the main world powers to solve problems diplomatically first rather than through military action
Of course but some people, especially of the internationalist streak, tend to view the UN as a good or worthy thing - rather than simply what it is which is a forum for all nations to speak including dictators, murderers and thieves which are endemic in the leadership of much of the world.
The UN represents the whole world not the free world. It is not democratic and it is not good people only.
85% of Tory voters and 80% of Leave voters think the songs should be performed with the lyrics but only 39% of Labour voters and 46% of Remain voters think that
Mr. eek, let me know if you do. Some weather forecasting insider info would be very handy given how rubbish the BBC forecast is these days.
Mr. B, cheers for your excellent tip on Biden for the Democrat nomination (did say this before but no idea if you saw it).
A chap can be forgiven for occasionally reminding the site of his 251 winning tip, no?
Of course. That was precisely my idea on your behalf - I just couldn't remember the precise details. You'll have to rehearse them a little less occasionally, perhaps ?
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
A problem at the moment is that one leader johnson is far better known than Starmer who has only been in the job for three and a half months and still has a high level of DKs. It takes time for an opposition leader to build profile so that a proper comparison can be made.
Also please don't confuse satisfaction ratings with favourability or approval.
Thus a GE2019 Tory could have been satisfied with Corbyn because he was so crap but not view him favourably
The Survation poll quoted is about Favourability not Satisfaction.
Johnson Favourable 40 (+3) Starmer Favourable 34 (+3)
It certainly could change we are 4 years from the next election but frankly I'm surprised at how good Johnson and the Tories are still polling at this stage of the Parliament. I would have thought it would be worse by now, like it was in 2011, even if the next election were to be won.
An odd way to phrase it. I don't think there are many songs which people know all the words for, but they can still appreciate the song.
I know a lot of people my age who could sing all the words to Fresh Prince of Bel Air as an oddly specific song that every word is known of - but not the extended version of the song with the extra verse.
Who cares what the public thinks on this? We should be making decisions of this nature based on expert military advice, not what the layman public think.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
Johnson with a 6% lead there on Favourable ratings.
Remarkable all things considered that he's still leading on that metric.
That's one way of looking at it if you are a Boris fanboy.
44% of those polled disapprove of Johnson while just 25% of those polled disapprove of Starmer. That's a big gap.
Actually credit goes to @isam who identified a while back that Favourable ratings were historically more accurate than Net Favourables - which makes sense considering votes vote for a party and not against one.
Plus of course Johnson is polling as good or better than he was in approval ratings still today than he was before he won his landslide 80 seat majority.
Mike, from 2011
Oh wow that's interesting, so that's OGH himself saying that favourables are key? Very interesting, I hope that answers OGH's question - though your charts the other day were very fascinating.
Thanks Philip.
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
A problem at the moment is that one leader johnson is far better known than Starmer who has only been in the job for three and a half months and still has a high level of DKs. It takes time for an opposition leader to build profile so that a proper comparison can be made.
Also please don't confuse satisfaction ratings with favourability or approval.
Thus a GE2019 Tory could have been satisfied with Corbyn because he was so crap but not view him favourably
The Survation poll quoted is about Favourability not Satisfaction.
Johnson Favourable 40 (+3) Starmer Favourable 34 (+3)
It certainly could change we are 4 years from the next election but frankly I'm surprised at how good Johnson and the Tories are still polling at this stage of the Parliament. I would have thought it would be worse by now, like it was in 2011, even if the next election were to be won.
Though today's Survation would see a hung parliament and Starmer able to become PM but only with the support of 58 SNP MPs and the minor parties
Unlike the Commonwealth the UN does nothing to expel from its membership dictators etc
Xi and Putin both sit on the Security Council.
As for thieves - well Trump is on the Security Council too.
Realistically you cannot not have China and Russia as well as the USA on the UN Security Council if there is any point to it, it is not supposed to be a body only for democracies and free market economies like the G7 but was set up to incorporate the main world powers to solve problems diplomatically first rather than through military action
Of course but some people, especially of the internationalist streak, tend to view the UN as a good or worthy thing - rather than simply what it is which is a forum for all nations to speak including dictators, murderers and thieves which are endemic in the leadership of much of the world.
The UN represents the whole world not the free world. It is not democratic and it is not good people only.
People forget that the origins of the UN is as a club for the victorious powers of WWII to impose their peace.
Article 53 "The Security Council shall, where appropriate, utilize such regional arrangements or agencies for enforcement action under its authority. But no enforcement action shall be taken under regional arrangements or by regional agencies without the authorization of the Security Council, with the exception of measures against any enemy state, as defined in paragraph 2 of this Article, provided for pursuant to Article 107 or in regional arrangements directed against renewal of aggressive policy on the part of any such state, until such time as the Organization may, on request of the Governments concerned, be charged with the responsibility for preventing further aggression by such a state.
"The term enemy state as used in paragraph 1 of this Article applies to any state which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory of the present Charter."
Article 77 "1 The trusteeship system shall apply to such territories in the following categories as may be placed thereunder by means of trusteeship agreements:
...
"b. territories which may be detached from enemy states as a result of the Second World War"
Article 107 "Nothing in the present Charter shall invalidate or preclude action, in relation to any state which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory to the present Charter, taken or authorized as a result of that war by the Governments having responsibility for such action."
Who cares what the public thinks on this? We should be making decisions of this nature based on expert military advice, not what the layman public think.
We need both, so the fact the public do not give a majority for either shows they are probably about right while recognising we need to invest most in cyberwarfare tools in the 21st century
An odd way to phrase it. I don't think there are many songs which people know all the words for, but they can still appreciate the song.
I know a lot of people my age who could sing all the words to Fresh Prince of Bel Air as an oddly specific song that every word is known of - but not the extended version of the song with the extra verse.
I think I know all the words to the marri-ed to a merma-id version. Knowing the proper one would be really weird. NB that 4% = the decapitation constant in polling terms and equates to 0%.
Comments
I'm not sure why Archer is bowling rather than Broad with Anderson? Even if its not a new ball.
And boy, do they approve.
https://twitter.com/Hawkeye_74/status/1298272968124936193
(My theory is that different bits of the Brexit coalition want different things. Some want freedom on trade deals, some want control of borders, some want fish. There are two ways of keeping them all happy. One is to stomp off up to our national bedroom and have no deal, the other is to imagine we can get something for nothing. And you have to keep them all happy, because otherwise Nigel will have a chunk of betrayed people to play with.)
Well done Jimmy!!!!
That has as much to do with the debate about wearing masks in schools as the poisoning of Navalny has to do with the number of slip fielders that Joe Root is setting.
https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1297650329597640704
Yes ,it was definitely the case with Cameron vs EdM that Favourables trumped Net Satisfaction as a guide. Ed led on the latter by a fair margin for quite some time, but not on the former. The same seems true with Boris vs Sir Keir.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1298085210672828421
I saw the video of Manhattan see. Deserted streets. Shops boarded up, shop after shop, block after block. Fifth, Park, Madison.
As the commentator says, they even looted Barnes and Noble. A bookstore!
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1298285082093015042
Also, don't forget that the £2tn in debt is already sold and the interest rates are already fixed at fairly low rates for the next 17 years (the average maturity of UK gilts) so any rise in yields won't have an immediate effect now that the cash has already been raised and borrowing is showing signs of returning to normal.
Not everything is negative, despite the spin everyone loves to put on the UK economy.
Mr. B, cheers for your excellent tip on Biden for the Democrat nomination (did say this before but no idea if you saw it).
A chap can be forgiven for occasionally reminding the site of his 251 winning tip, no?
Is this correct?
Am I going mad? The one group of people you would most like to keep the virus to themselves should they have picked it up on the beach in France are excluded?
Looters jumping on a bandwagon and robbing stores is worse than the Police firing, attacking and abusing unarmed people how?
I stand with the people not an authoritarian Police state abusing its authority and beating up, shooting and killing the public.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-travellers-exempt-from-uk-border-rules/coronavirus-covid-19-travellers-exempt-from-uk-border-rules
The moment the recession is over though yes absolutely. Though you want to drag out the recession and make it worse by not controlling the virus which is odd - I can understand a liberal argument on that but on pure economics controlling the virus is how we get the economy back to normal.
"Registered health or care professionals
The exemption from the requirement to self-isolate for registered health or care professionals was removed on Friday 31 July 2020. ..."
Also please don't confuse satisfaction ratings with favourability or approval.
Thus a GE2019 Tory could have been satisfied with Corbyn because he was so crap but not view him favourably
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5994935/Boris-Johnson-held-secret-talks-Trumps-former-strategist-Steve-Bannon.html
Anderson really has been tremendous for English cricket.
But I also wouldn't ignore just how invisible these protests are to 99% of Americans. Because of CV19, no one is shopping in Manhattan.
I'm in Los Angeles, and I've seen photos of boarded up shops. But I've not seen or heard anything IRL. No sirens or helicopters or anything like that.
Normally, I suspect, because I'd have been traveling to meetings to shopping to work or to dinner,I might have seen things. But if I'm not seeing anything in my real life, despite living very close to where trouble spots are.
This compares to London in 2012. Then you knew there were riots. Here, were it not for news, you would not.
And I think that makes it a much less salient point. It's one degree (or more) removed from 99% of Americans.
He's redefined the full back role.
I've done the following:
-52 Fury
+21.34 The field
-109.61 Mcilroy
+215 Anderson
Unlike the Commonwealth the UN does nothing to expel from its membership dictators etc
Xi and Putin both sit on the Security Council.
As for thieves - well Trump is on the Security Council too.
The UN represents the whole world not the free world. It is not democratic and it is not good people only.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/survey-results/daily/2020/08/25/65d1b/1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=daily_agenda_25_Aug_2020_1
That was precisely my idea on your behalf - I just couldn't remember the precise details. You'll have to rehearse them a little less occasionally, perhaps ?
Harry Maguire,
Harry Maguire,
We don't need you,
We've got Soyoncu,
His cock's f****ing massive!
Johnson Favourable 40 (+3)
Starmer Favourable 34 (+3)
It certainly could change we are 4 years from the next election but frankly I'm surprised at how good Johnson and the Tories are still polling at this stage of the Parliament. I would have thought it would be worse by now, like it was in 2011, even if the next election were to be won.
I know a lot of people my age who could sing all the words to Fresh Prince of Bel Air as an oddly specific song that every word is known of - but not the extended version of the song with the extra verse.
Article 53
"The Security Council shall, where appropriate, utilize such regional arrangements or agencies for enforcement action under its authority. But no enforcement action shall be taken under regional arrangements or by regional agencies without the authorization of the Security Council, with the exception of measures against any enemy state, as defined in paragraph 2 of this Article, provided for pursuant to Article 107 or in regional arrangements directed against renewal of aggressive policy on the part of any such state, until such time as the Organization may, on request of the Governments concerned, be charged with the responsibility for preventing further aggression by such a state.
"The term enemy state as used in paragraph 1 of this Article applies to any state which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory of the present Charter."
Article 77
"1 The trusteeship system shall apply to such territories in the following categories as may be placed thereunder by means of trusteeship agreements:
...
"b. territories which may be detached from enemy states as a result of the Second World War"
Article 107
"Nothing in the present Charter shall invalidate or preclude action, in relation to any state which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory to the present Charter, taken or authorized as a result of that war by the Governments having responsibility for such action."
He should never play for England ever again.
A bit slow on his feet, but a great player. Its a football team not a church choir.