"No lockdown, no masks, no hysteria... NO PROBLEM: Sweden didn't go into a corona coma - and it's living in glorious normality. Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks: Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?"
How come Blair had the election in 2001 and not 2002?
It used to be regarded as a bit desperate to hold on for 5 years, as if you knew you were going to lose and wanted to stay in office for as long as possible. On the other hand if you were confident of winning you held elections every 4 years. Both Thatcher and Blair did so, whereas John Major waited 5 years twice when winning was uncertain.
HYUFD is a grade-A muppet and has some worrying autocratic tendencies
A bit rude, try toning down the insults.
HYUFD is one of the good guy Conservatives. He is generally polite and his political antenna normally picks up the mood music in both the UK and the US.
Some of his assertions can be startling, but one learns to filter those out and concentrate on the astute stuff.
"No lockdown, no masks, no hysteria... NO PROBLEM: Sweden didn't go into a corona coma - and it's living in glorious normality. Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks: Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?"
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
The fact that the weather in the Highlands is forecast to be utterly shite for the next few days has nothing to do with Boris's changed plans of course.
Sunday looks alright. I'm hoping we get to climb Ben Lomond. Glad that we can enjoy the last week of our Scottish holiday with no risk of running into that awful man, anyway.
HYUFD is a grade-A muppet and has some worrying autocratic tendencies
A bit rude, try toning down the insults.
HYUFD is one of the good guy Conservatives. He is generally polite and his political antenna normally picks up the mood music in both the UK and the US.
Some of his assertions can be startling, but one learns to filter those out and concentrate on the astute stuff.
"No lockdown, no masks, no hysteria... NO PROBLEM: Sweden didn't go into a corona coma - and it's living in glorious normality. Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks: Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?"
"No lockdown, no masks, no hysteria... NO PROBLEM: Sweden didn't go into a corona coma - and it's living in glorious normality. Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks: Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?"
Sweden still has the 5th highest death rate in the world and even Sweden did not ignore social distancing or the need to wash hands and use sanitised and Swedes were advised to avoid public transport
HYUFD is a grade-A muppet and has some worrying autocratic tendencies
A bit rude, try toning down the insults.
HYUFD is one of the good guy Conservatives. He is generally polite and his political antenna normally picks up the mood music in both the UK and the US.
Some of his assertions can be startling, but one learns to filter those out and concentrate on the astute stuff.
Yeah, when things get personal on here it becomes unpleasant really fast. Let's just stick to politics.
Most governments did not make use of the full 5 years available to them. Heck, we've only managed it once since it was made the default.
I'd assume that the chances are you if you have a reasonable chance to win after 4 years, why take the risk of something coming up to reduce that chance by leaving it until the last possible moment?
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
I didn't say Mr HYUFD was "on the pulse of the nation".
He knows the Conservative Party extremely well. Post 2016 he has read Brexit and the blue collar admiration for Johnson well. I thought he was mad, and even against Corbyn, I assumed hard working, salt of the earth Britain wouldn't fall for Johnson's promises. I was disrespectful when he cited what I considered spurious polls. HYUFD was right, and I was very wrong.
His knowledge of US polling, state by state is helpful for November.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
I have been on here since 2005 and am known as Mr Moderate
So I am now appealing on behalf of all moderate centre nice types like me, for the debate to move away from unpleasantness and instead to focus on the issues
If this doesn't happen I shall feel compelled to move to another site where the debate is more civilised
I have been on here since 2005 and am known as Mr Moderate
So I am now appealing on behalf of all moderate centre nice types like me, for the debate to move away from unpleasantness and instead to focus on the issues
If this doesn't happen I shall feel compelled to move to another site where the debate is more civilised
Possibly
I understand the Hornet's Nest is good for a laugh.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Thanks to the morons on Twitter, Labour is now seen as more divided, well done cranks!
The majority of the nation does not live on Twitter thankfully. I speak to my news savvy friends about things such as this Twitter spat and they had no idea, and they also didn't really care.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick has always voted Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
You’re just spouting more irrelevant nonsense.
The fact is you don’t understand red wall voters. You’ve created a stereotype in your head and that’s universally applied to all.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick has always voted Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
You’re just spouting more irrelevant nonsense.
The fact is you don’t understand red wall voters. You’ve created a stereotype in your head and that’s universally applied to all.
No you don't, if you did Labour would never have lost them in the first place
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick has always voted Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
You’re just spouting more irrelevant nonsense.
The fact is you don’t understand red wall voters. You’ve created a stereotype in your head and that’s universally applied to all.
No you don't, if you did Labour would never have lost them in the first place
The populations of Austria and Portugal are pretty similar. Yet the former has just been added to the quarantine list with 331 reported new cases today whereas the latter just removed from the quarantine list with 219. Hardly a difference significant enough to justify the hassle and disruption being imposed on travellers and the travel industry.
There has to be a threshold somewhere.
Lol. Like any of this is actually objective?
The travel industry made a huge fuss when Portugal - unjustifiably in its view and in the view of the Portuguese government (and objectively a mistake in view of the subsequent virus data) - was added to the quarantine list. So the government taken the earliest opportunity to correct its mistake. Meanwhile tons of travellers to Portugal have had their trips ruined or incurred extra expense, and travel companies have taken an unnecessary hit.
Now the same cycle is about to repeated regarding Austria.
Can you explain Norway applying quarantine to Austria
And why Scotland is to do the same with Switzerland
The virus is spreading - “we must do something”
“This is something”. So it gets done.
Damaging and pointless. Simply arse covering from a government that should have been restricting or quarantining returning travellers back in March, when we had very little infection at home.
You seem to be very exercised by this when I expect the vast majority of the country support the process, indeed some would want it extending much further
I am exercised by this because potentially it affects me, and is an example of our government making a series of futile and damaging policy decisions. If you want to sit in North Wales and take no notice because it makes no difference to you, so be it. But we can all see how your aborted stand against no deal Brexit looks like turning out.
It is simply pointless and futile quarantine roulette. From a government that, just a couple of weeks ago, was actively encouraging people to book foreign holidays.
I don't recall the government ever encouraging people to book foreign holidays. Saying it was possible is different to encouraging it.
What is affecting you is the fact there is a lethal pandemic going on and quite frankly quarantining travellers is far less of a restriction on our liberties than shutting down businesses.
No I am not, I would vote for Biden as I would have voted for Hillary in 2016 and probably Republican at Congressional and State level if I was American, I would only have voted for Trump over Sanders. The last Republican I would have voted for for president was George W Bush in 2000.
However I still think it will be close, Biden has had his bounce now from the Democratic convention and Trump will likely get some bounce after the Republican convention next week, even if the bounce is smaller than normal as they are online
Trump RNC bounce is what you'd expect from a NORMAL candidate and convention. However, this year both are abnormal.
Back in 2016, the Republican convention was a shit-show. Maybe it impressed some swing voters, but methinks many more who voted for Trumpsky in 2016 did so DESPITE that years GOP convo rather than because of it.
Does anyone know, what bump (if any) Trumpsky got post-RNC in 2016?
Both Trump and Clinton got 4% post convention bounces in 2016.
I found the Trump convention far more exciting than the Romney convention which was like a widget makers conference.
@Philip_Thompson I'm amazed anyone is contemplating traveling at a time like this. Won't be doing that until next year at the earliest.
Is not the urge to travel and be damned in 2020 - eerily similar to the psychology of Americans who embarked on the Luisitania for a jaunt across the Atlantic in 1915, or Brits in Spring 1940 grumbled at not being able to catch the ferry for a dirty weekend in Dieppe?
With the common link in all three cases inability to fully grasp that THIS IS WAR.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
@Philip_Thompson I'm amazed anyone is contemplating traveling at a time like this. Won't be doing that until next year at the earliest.
Is not the urge to travel and be damned in 2020 - eerily similar to the psychology of Americans who embarked on the Luisitania for a jaunt across the Atlantic in 1915, or Brits in Spring 1940 grumbled at not being able to catch the ferry for a dirty weekend in Dieppe?
With the common link in all three cases inability to fully grasp that THIS IS WAR.
Idiotic. This bloke doesn't even know where he lives.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
No I am not, I would vote for Biden as I would have voted for Hillary in 2016 and probably Republican at Congressional and State level if I was American, I would only have voted for Trump over Sanders. The last Republican I would have voted for for president was George W Bush in 2000.
However I still think it will be close, Biden has had his bounce now from the Democratic convention and Trump will likely get some bounce after the Republican convention next week, even if the bounce is smaller than normal as they are online
Trump RNC bounce is what you'd expect from a NORMAL candidate and convention. However, this year both are abnormal.
Back in 2016, the Republican convention was a shit-show. Maybe it impressed some swing voters, but methinks many more who voted for Trumpsky in 2016 did so DESPITE that years GOP convo rather than because of it.
Does anyone know, what bump (if any) Trumpsky got post-RNC in 2016?
Both Trump and Clinton got 4% post convention bounces in 2016.
I found the Trump convention far more exciting than the Romney convention which was like a widget makers conference.
I believe the biggest post convention bounces in the last 20 years were Gore in 2000, then McCain in 2008 so a big bounce can get you back in contention but does not mean you will win. Dukakis in 1988 and Mondale in 1984 also got big bounces and lost.
Clinton's bounce in 1992 was the biggest on record and he went onto win but he was also helped by Perot's withdrawal from the race that week.
Carter in 1976 and Reagan in 1980 are also examples of big convention bounced which led to a win
"No lockdown, no masks, no hysteria... NO PROBLEM: Sweden didn't go into a corona coma - and it's living in glorious normality. Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks: Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?"
Sweden still has the 5th highest death rate in the world and even Sweden did not ignore social distancing or the need to wash hands and use sanitised and Swedes were advised to avoid public transport
One of the main questions is whether people in Sweden have been able to access their cancer and other treatments. A lot of people in countries like the UK haven't been able to do so because of the lockdown. I don't know what the answer is.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
So what it voted Labour since then and still voted Labour last year so is not part of the Red Wall that went Tory
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
Local election results are more likely to be distorted by personal votes.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
Local election results are more likely to be distorted by personal votes.
No I am not, I would vote for Biden as I would have voted for Hillary in 2016 and probably Republican at Congressional and State level if I was American, I would only have voted for Trump over Sanders. The last Republican I would have voted for for president was George W Bush in 2000.
However I still think it will be close, Biden has had his bounce now from the Democratic convention and Trump will likely get some bounce after the Republican convention next week, even if the bounce is smaller than normal as they are online
Trump RNC bounce is what you'd expect from a NORMAL candidate and convention. However, this year both are abnormal.
Back in 2016, the Republican convention was a shit-show. Maybe it impressed some swing voters, but methinks many more who voted for Trumpsky in 2016 did so DESPITE that years GOP convo rather than because of it.
Does anyone know, what bump (if any) Trumpsky got post-RNC in 2016?
Both Trump and Clinton got 4% post convention bounces in 2016.
I found the Trump convention far more exciting than the Romney convention which was like a widget makers conference.
I believe the biggest post convention bounces in the last 20 years were Gore in 2000, then McCain in 2008 so a big bounce can get you back in contention but does not mean you will win. Dukakis in 1988 and Mondale in 1984 also got big bounces and lost.
Clinton's bounce in 1992 was the biggest on record and he went onto win but he was also helped by Perot's withdrawal from the race that week.
Carter in 1976 and Reagan in 1980 are also examples of big convention bounced which led to a win
Re: 1992. Clinton was aided not just when Ross Perot left the race right before DNC but also when RP got back IN. In the end, he took some votes from Clinton BUT even more from Bush the Elder.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
So what it voted Labour since then and still voted Labour last year so is not part of the Red Wall that went Tory
Sunderland South doesn't really exist today. It's divided between Sunderland Central and Houghton & Sunderland South. It would be interesting to ask the boffins how the old Sunderland South seat would have voted last year.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
It never voted Labour though so is not Red Wall
It doesn’t matter. It was just more incorrect nonsense from you.
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
Local election results are more likely to be distorted by personal votes.
I meant the Berwick constituency.
Certainly a lot of tactical voting for Alan Beith by Labour voters following his narrow win at the November 1973 by-election.
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
It never voted Labour though so is not Red Wall
It doesn’t matter. It was just more incorrect nonsense from you.
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
No it absolutely does matter and was absolutely correct, most Nissan workers live in the city of Sunderland itself.
Sedgefield, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland are market town, rural constituencies in which the number of Nissan workers living there is a tiny fraction of those living in Sunderland at most
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
It never voted Labour though so is not Red Wall
It doesn’t matter. It was just more incorrect nonsense from you.
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
No it absolutely does matter and was absolutely correct, most Nissan voters live in the city of Sunderland itself.
Sedgefield, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland are market town, rural constituencies in which the number of Nissan workers living there is a tiny fraction of those living in Sunderland at most
The fact that the weather in the Highlands is forecast to be utterly shite for the next few days has nothing to do with Boris's changed plans of course.
Utterly shite up there is grey with no wind, low cloud and a bit of drizzle. That's when the dreaded m*dg*s strike. There's no forecast for any of that.
A wild wind with showers is great for photography and sea watching. I doubt he was planning on climbing any big hills.
You don't go to Applecross to lie on the beach (although I have done so - it isn't the best beach up there but there is at least some sand).
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
It never voted Labour though so is not Red Wall
It doesn’t matter. It was just more incorrect nonsense from you.
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
No it absolutely does matter and was absolutely correct, most Nissan voters live in the city of Sunderland itself.
Sedgefield, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland are market town, rural constituencies in which the number of Nissan workers living there is a tiny fraction of those living in Sunderland at most
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Even on the latest Yougov figures of Tories 40% and Labour 38% the Tories would hold Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland, only losing Durham NW
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
It never voted Labour though so is not Red Wall
It doesn’t matter. It was just more incorrect nonsense from you.
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
No it absolutely does matter and was absolutely correct, most Nissan voters live in the city of Sunderland itself.
Sedgefield, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland are market town, rural constituencies in which the number of Nissan workers living there is a tiny fraction of those living in Sunderland at most
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Even on the latest Yougov figures of Tories 40% and Labour 38% the Tories would hold Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland, only losing Durham NW
Again, that is meaningless. We’re not discussing who they are going to vote for. We’re discussing whether you understand them and you don’t. You’ve simply been wrong over and over again tonight.
The fact that the weather in the Highlands is forecast to be utterly shite for the next few days has nothing to do with Boris's changed plans of course.
Sunday looks alright. I'm hoping we get to climb Ben Lomond. Glad that we can enjoy the last week of our Scottish holiday with no risk of running into that awful man, anyway.
Later next week there might be some decent weather after a potential storm midweek.
Tomorrow or _early_ Monday would be fine for a hill depending on your tolerance for taking a risk on whether you get a view or not, although perhaps my definition of 'fine' is coloured by doing most of my hills in winter.
It looks cold enough for sleet on the highest hills (not Ben Lomond). Autumn is here...
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
It never voted Labour though so is not Red Wall
It doesn’t matter. It was just more incorrect nonsense from you.
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
No it absolutely does matter and was absolutely correct, most Nissan voters live in the city of Sunderland itself.
Sedgefield, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland are market town, rural constituencies in which the number of Nissan workers living there is a tiny fraction of those living in Sunderland at most
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Even on the latest Yougov figures of Tories 40% and Labour 38% the Tories would hold Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland, only losing Durham NW
Again, that is meaningless. We’re not discussing who they are going to vote for. We’re discussing whether you understand them and you don’t. You’ve simply been wrong over and over again tonight.
Oh I do understand them, your Labour Party do not, hence they lost them last year for the first time in about 100 years and still would not win all of them back now
@Mexicanpete, with all due respect @HYUFD is not “on the pulse of the nation”. He knows nothing about the “red wall” other than his own predejuces and why would he, from his humble abode in middle class and metropolitan Epping Forest?
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
You say that but Red Wall seats did not vote Tory last year for the first time since WW2 on a whim, or because they had suddenly become fans of austerity and cutting rich peoples taxes, they did so to deliver Brexit and all the Leave campaign promised
They voted for a better life that they believe Brexit will bring.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
Nissan is in Sunderland which still voted Labour
You are clueless. Nissan workers and its supply chain live anywhere from Alnwick to Hartlepool.
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
Hartlepool also voted Labour, Alnwick is solid rural, middle class Tory.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
Sunderland South was Tory -held 1953 - 1964. Paul Williams was the MP.
And Alnwick voted Liberal from the 70s until 2010.
It never voted Labour though so is not Red Wall
It doesn’t matter. It was just more incorrect nonsense from you.
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
No it absolutely does matter and was absolutely correct, most Nissan voters live in the city of Sunderland itself.
Sedgefield, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland are market town, rural constituencies in which the number of Nissan workers living there is a tiny fraction of those living in Sunderland at most
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Even on the latest Yougov figures of Tories 40% and Labour 38% the Tories would hold Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland, only losing Durham NW
Again, that is meaningless. We’re not discussing who they are going to vote for. We’re discussing whether you understand them and you don’t. You’ve simply been wrong over and over again tonight.
Oh I do understand them, your Labour Party do not, hence they lost them last year for the first time in about 100 years and still would not win all of them back now
Whether “my Labour party” does or not is neither here nor there.
You haven’t got a clue mate. You’ve demonstrated that over and over again.
I honestly don’t see how this is likely to go anywhere. Sentences should only be changed if the judge made a clear mistake, e.g. giving someone six months for robbery with violence. I can’t see the court of appeal will consider 16 years for a near juvenile offender who pleaded guilty to manslaughter ‘unduly lenient’.
If I were cynical I would say this is more political posturing exploiting Mrs Harper’s quite understandable feeling that having taken her husband’s life these people should be banged up for good to bolster Tory credentials on law and order.
It will play well in the Red Wall certainly
Is the point of the criminal justice system to ‘play well in the Red Wall?’
(Moreover, I would point out that the judges refusing to change the sentence might play worse than doing nothing.)
As a government elected on a tough on law and order message yes, in the US that would be taken as given.
If the judges uphold the sentence then Cummings can just blame them the Attorney General having done all she can to increase their sentence
We’re not in the US. Judges are appointed to uphold the law, not elected at the whim of the people.
There’s also a certain irony in Dominic Cummings being involved in anything to do with unduly lenient sentences.
This government was elected to deliver the will of the people, judges are not immune
While calling people grade a muppets isnt very helpful, is this the HYUFD who is supposed to be the acceptable face of the current tory party? Really?
"No lockdown, no masks, no hysteria... NO PROBLEM: Sweden didn't go into a corona coma - and it's living in glorious normality. Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks: Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?"
Comments
Rishi is on fire still
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1296929490078236672?s=09
Good night folks
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8652523/No-lockdown-no-hysteria-DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-asks-Sweden-proof-got-terribly-wrong.html
HYUFD is one of the good guy Conservatives. He is generally polite and his political antenna normally picks up the mood music in both the UK and the US.
Some of his assertions can be startling, but one learns to filter those out and concentrate on the astute stuff.
As soon as “provincials” indicate they want anything outside the “hang em, Brexit” stereotype he’s built up in his head, he either dismisses it or doesn’t care.
We are a one dimensional people to him and it’s patronizing as anything.
I'd assume that the chances are you if you have a reasonable chance to win after 4 years, why take the risk of something coming up to reduce that chance by leaving it until the last possible moment?
He knows the Conservative Party extremely well. Post 2016 he has read Brexit and the blue collar admiration for Johnson well. I thought he was mad, and even against Corbyn, I assumed hard working, salt of the earth Britain wouldn't fall for Johnson's promises. I was disrespectful when he cited what I considered spurious polls. HYUFD was right, and I was very wrong.
His knowledge of US polling, state by state is helpful for November.
A finest example of your delusion is when I stated quite reasonably that no Brexiteer in the North East voted for Brexit with the intention or the desire of risking the Nissan factory closing.
Now there’s no guarantee of that happening of course, but your reply was that it would be “their own fault” and that you didn’t care.
Shows how much you understand red wall voters.
So I am now appealing on behalf of all moderate centre nice types like me, for the debate to move away from unpleasantness and instead to focus on the issues
If this doesn't happen I shall feel compelled to move to another site where the debate is more civilised
Possibly
Regardless it doesn’t matter that Sunderland still voted for Labour in sufficient numbers to hold the seat, its Tory/Brexit vote was still the highest its been in many years.
If the Tories did not win Sunderland in 2019 to deliver Brexit they never will
The fact is you don’t understand red wall voters. You’ve created a stereotype in your head and that’s universally applied to all.
What is affecting you is the fact there is a lethal pandemic going on and quite frankly quarantining travellers is far less of a restriction on our liberties than shutting down businesses.
Bounce for Trumpsky was more like +2% compared to +3% for Hillary
Both were comparable with Obama's +3% in 2012, and better than Romney in at -1 (after hurricane & Clint Eastwood's chair).
In 2008, Obama got a post-convention bounce of +4% which was less than +6% McCain got thanks to the (temporary) benefit of picking Sarah Palin for VP.
Recent bounces compare most unfavorably with the Big Kahune: Bill Clinton's +16 in 1992>
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/21/joe-biden-convention-bounce-400083
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1296948210242596864?s=19
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1296948738678824960?s=19
With the common link in all three cases inability to fully grasp that THIS IS WAR.
OR are rurals doubling down for Trumpsky?
Clinton's bounce in 1992 was the biggest on record and he went onto win but he was also helped by Perot's withdrawal from the race that week.
Carter in 1976 and Reagan in 1980 are also examples of big convention bounced which led to a win
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
My point was that Nissan (and its supply chain workers) live in all manner of constituencies, especially ones like Sedgefield, Durham North West, Bishop Auckland, etc.
Therefore the fact that “Sunderland voted Labour” is completely and utterly meaningless.
Sedgefield, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland are market town, rural constituencies in which the number of Nissan workers living there is a tiny fraction of those living in Sunderland at most
A wild wind with showers is great for photography and sea watching. I doubt he was planning on climbing any big hills.
You don't go to Applecross to lie on the beach (although I have done so - it isn't the best beach up there but there is at least some sand).
Tomorrow or _early_ Monday would be fine for a hill depending on your tolerance for taking a risk on whether you get a view or not, although perhaps my definition of 'fine' is coloured by doing most of my hills in winter.
It looks cold enough for sleet on the highest hills (not Ben Lomond). Autumn is here...
You haven’t got a clue mate. You’ve demonstrated that over and over again.